Thunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds consisting of vigorous updrafts, precipitation and lightning Thunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds consisting of vigorous updrafts, precipitation and lightning ● Thunderstorms are responsible for most of what we refer to as “severe weather”, including high winds, lightning, tornadoes and hail - By official definition, a severe thunderstorm has at least one of the following: ● Large hail of ¾ inch diameter or greater ● Wind gusts of at least 50 knots ● A tornado ● ● Keep in mind that a thunderstorm is a form of cumulus cloud, which means it's basically a plume of warm, cloudy air (referred to as an updraft) in a conditionally unstable environment. The plume keeps rising because of condensation in the cloud, which keeps the cloudy air warmer than the surroundings. Labeling the Parts condensation evaporation warm air cold air A mature thunderstorm cell consists of a warm updraft and a (relatively) cold downdraft. The updraft is driven by condensation and latent heating and the downdraft by evaporative cooling. Labeling the Parts condensation entrainment evaporation warm air cold air The evaporation occurs through two different processes: (i) rain falls into the unsaturated air below and evaporates; and (ii) dry air is mixed into the cloud across the sides of the cloud, through a process called entrainment Labeling the Parts condensation entrainment evaporation warm air cold air gust front cold pool As the downdraft reaches the ground, it spreads out and forms a region of relatively cold air called the cold pool. Labeling the Parts condensation entrainment evaporation warm air cold air gust front cold pool The leading edge of the spreading cold pool is called the gust front, since the winds behind the gust front (on the cold side) tend to be strong and gusty. Labeling the Parts warm air cold air gust front As the gust front spreads along the ground, it forces warm air up and over the front. This can initiate new updrafts, which is an important process for maintaining and propagating the system. Photo of a gust front approaching outside the daycare. No walk today! Recipe for a Thunderstorm The driving force behind a thunderstorm is the latent heating in the updraft. So to get things going, we'll need: ● A liberal supply of warm, humid air ● A conditionally unstable environment, allowing the air to rise ● A lifting mechanism (the “trigger”) to raise the initially dry air to saturation And if it's a severe storm we're after, then we'll also need: ● A change in the background wind speed and direction with height (called wind shear) wind shear Conditions for the April 15, 2011 Tornado Outbreak a change in wind speed and/or direction with height a trigger mechanism to provide lifting (cold front) a supply of warm humid air off the Gulf Thunderstorm Classification A given thunderstorm can be classified as: ● ● ● A single-cell (or ordinary-cell) thunderstorm, consisting of a single updraft/downdraft system A multicell thunderstorm, consisting of several thunderstorm cells evolving together as a whole A supercell storm, consisting of a single intense, rotating updraft/downdraft pair (the “king of storms”) In addition, we also classify large groups of storms, into what are called mesoscale convective systems (MCS): ● ● Squall lines consist of a collection of storms arranged in a line Mesoscale convective complexes consist of a large group of storms without a well-defined shape Dependence on shear ● ● Which kind of storm we get (single-cell, multicell, or supercell) depends to a large extent on the wind profile in the environment (i.e., on the environmental shear) Larger amounts of wind shear tend to produce longer-lived and more intense storm systems Dependence on shear height (km) environmental wind profiles used in computer modeling experiments (experiments A, B, C, etc) A B C wind speed (m/s) the stronger shear profiles result in longer-lived multicell and supercell storms single-cell (A) supercell (C) updraft strength resulting storm strength (measured by updraft speed) as a function of time for the different wind profiles multicell (B) time (min) Single-cell storms: ● A single-cell storm consists of a single updraft / downdraft pair ● Single-cells form in environments with weak wind shear ● ● The cell evolves through a series of stages, with the whole process taking roughly 30 to 60 minutes The motion of the storm follows the mean background wind Life cycle of a single-cell storm: Growth stage: air parcels lifted to saturation by some trigger process. Clouds build into towering cumulus. Mature stage: evaporation leads to formation of a downdraft. Cold pool forms and begins to spread along the ground. Most intense stage. Dissipating stage: the spreading cold pool cuts the system off from warm air, killing the updraft and leading to dissipation. A single-cell thunderstorm in the dissipating stage Multicell storms: ● ● ● A multicell storm consists of a small collection of single cells in various stages of development Multicells are found in environments with weak to moderate shear Individual cells grow and die in 30 to 60 minutes, but the collection as a whole can last much longer Maintenance of a multicell storm: ● The key to multicell longevity is the spreading gust front ● As the front spreads it lifts warm air, initiating new updrafts ● The new updrafts form at the leading edge of the system, and the older cells shift to the back of the system and die mature cells move to the back of the system and eventually dissipate new updrafts are formed at the gust front a shelf cloud formed as air is lifted up and over the edge of the gust front a rotating roll cloud just behind the leading edge of the gust front Supercells: ● ● ● A supercell consists of a single intense, rotating updraft and associated downdrafts Supercells are typically found in high-shear environments The organization of a supercell is self-reinforcing, and a single supercell can last several hours rotating supercell wall cloud and associated tornado Supercells: ● Most of our intense tornadoes in the US are produced by supercell storms rotating supercell wall cloud and associated tornado Supercell Structure as Seen by Radar roughly N-S cross-section (A to B) radar echoes seen at various heights above the ground roughly E-W cross-section (C to D) B Bounded Weak Echo Region (BWER): a hole in the radar signal where the updraft is so fast that precipitation has no time to grow C hook echo A D updraft region front-flank downdraft rear-flank downdraft front-flank gust front rotating updraft rear-flank gust front Tornadic supercells usually have two downdrafts, each with an associated gust front. The single, rotating updraft is located where the two gust fronts meet. The Supercell Updraft and Tornadoes When a tornado forms, it's usually part of the rotating updraft. So why does the updraft rotate in the first place? ● The rotation of the updraft ultimately comes from the shear in the the environmental winds - Remember: supercells form in high-shear environments shear in the environment The shear in the environmental winds provides a source of background rotation. (Think of rolling a pencil between your two hands....) When this rotation gets pulled into the storm's updraft, it spins about a vertical axis. shear in the environment The end result is an environment favorable for tornado formation. (Roughly 10-15% of supercells produce tornadoes.) a rotating wall cloud at the base of a supercell updraft and another, this time with tornado this one also had a tornado, shortly before the picture was snapped Favorable supercell conditions (and storm conditions in general) are when warm, humid air off the Gulf is drawn northward below an upper-level disturbance with strong shear, often as part of a developing cyclone. Lifting is provided by upper-level divergence and/or the surface cold front, while the shear is provided by the upper-level jet stream. Conditions for the April 15, 2011 Tornado Outbreak Where are tornadoes most likely? Frequency of tornado occurrence (average number per year by state) What time of year are tornadoes most likely? Number of tornadoes by month in the US What time of day are tornadoes most likely? Number of tornadoes by time of day in the US Collections of Storms ● ● Finally, large collections of individual storm cells often organize themselves into much larger structures, called mesoscale convective systems (MCS) The classic MCS types include: the squall line: a collection of multicell or (occasionally) supercell storms arranged more or less in a line ● Squall lines usually form form in environments with significant shear Collections of Storms ● ● Finally, large collections of individual storm cells often organize themselves into much larger structures, called mesoscale convective systems (MCS) The classic MCS types include: the meoscale convective complex (MCC): a collection of multicell storms arranged with no particular shape ● MCCs tend to form in environments with weaker shear