1
Trends in Voter Turnout
This brief reviews voter turnout by sex and race according to CPS data from 1968 to 2008, and
shows salient trends looking forward to the presidential election in November 2012.
According to data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS),
2008 marked the fourth straight presidential election in which fewer than 60% of Americans cast
a ballot. Since the CPS began tabulating voting statistics in 1964, turnout has remained on a
relatively steady downward trend. Though there are exceptions in 1984, 1992, 2000, and 2004,
voter turnout increased from the previous presidential election by 0.7%, 3.9%, 0.5%, and 3.6%,
respectively. Overall, however, the percentage of Americans who take to the polls has decreased
by 11.1% from the 1964 high of 69.3%. There are a number of other notable trends in the CPS’
voting data.
Fig. 1.1 Percent of American Citizens Who Voted in
Presidential Elections
75%
Percent Voted
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
69%
68%
63.5
59%
59%
60%
61%
57%
58%
54%
58%
55%
45%
40%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Presidential Election Year
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
2
Voter Turnout Among Black Citizens
Historically, the percentage of black citizens who vote has tallied below the percentage of all
citizens who vote. Since 1972, when the difference peaked at 10.9%, the gap has started to
narrow. With a 1.8% decline, 1980 marked the first significant decrease in the percent difference,
and 1984 followed with an even more substantial 4.6% reduction. Despite the gap widening
again in 1988 and 1992, with the difference rising to 5.9% and 7.3% respectively, the difference
again began to fall in 1996. In 2000, the percentage of all citizens who voted outweighed the
percentage of black citizens who voted by only 1.2%. In 2008, and for the first time in a
presidential election, black citizens voted at a higher rate than the greater population, outpacing
all Americans by 2.6%. The rise in voter turnout among black citizens in 2008 can most likely be
attributed to the presence of a black Democratic presidential nominee.
Fig. 2.1 Voter Turnout of All Citizens vs. Black Citizens
Percent Voted
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
All Citizens
30%
Black Citizens
20%
10%
0%
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Presidential Election Year
Fig 2.2 Black Citizens vs. All Citizens Percent Difference
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
-4.1%
-10.8% -10.2% -10.9% -10.5%
-8.7%
1988
-5.9%
1992
1996
-3.6%
2000
-1.2%
-7.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
2004
-2.0%
2.6%
2008
3
Voter Turnout Among Male Citizens
In 1964, the percentage of males who voted was 2.6% higher than the percentage of all citizens
who cast their vote. This positive difference has not been surpassed in any of the eleven
presidential elections since. From 1964 to 2008, the percentage of male citizens who vote has
decreased in each presidential election. The first year when the difference became negative was
1980, when 59.1% of male citizens voted in comparison to 59.2% of all citizens. The 2008
election had the greatest negative disparity, with the difference at -2.5%.
Fig. 3.1 Voter Turnout of All Citizens vs. Male Citizens
Percent Voted
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
All Citizens
30%
Male Citizens
20%
10%
0%
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Presidential Election Year
Fig 3.2 Male vs. All Citizens Percent Difference
2.6%
1964
2.0%
1968
1.1%
1972
0.4%
1976
-0.1%
1980
1984
-0.9%
1988
-1.0%
1992
-1.1%
1996
-1.4%
2000
-1.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
2004
-2.0%
2008
-2.5%
4
Voter Turnout Among Female Citizens
Conversely, from 1964 to 2008, the percentage of female citizens who vote has risen relative to
the percentage of all citizens who vote. In 1964, the percentage of female citizens who cast their
ballots was 2.3% less than the percentage of all citizens who voted. That difference has
decreased in every election since, with 1980 marking the first year when the percentage of
female citizens who voted was .2% greater than the percentage of all citizens who voted. In
2008, 60.4% of female citizens took to the polls, which was 2.2% higher than the percentage of
all citizens who voted, marking the greatest positive difference for women since 1964.
Fig. 4.1. Voter Turnout of All Citizens vs. Female Citizens
80%
Percent Voted
70%
60%
50%
40%
All Citizens
30%
Female Citizens
20%
10%
0%
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Presidential Election Year
Fig 4.2 Female vs. All Citizens Percent Difference
1964
-2.3%
1968
-1.8%
1972
-1.0%
1976
-0.4%
0.2%
1980
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1984
1988
1992
1.3%
1996
1.5%
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
1.8%
2004
2.2%
2008
5
Voter Turnout Among Citizens Aged 24-44
Since 1964, the percentage of citizens aged 24 to 44 who vote has never exceeded the percentage
of all citizens who vote. In fact, the difference has continued to increase. 1964 and 1968 marked
election years when the difference was the smallest, at -0.3%. Despite small decreases in the
disparity in 1972, 1992 and 2000 compared to the previous election years, the gap widened with
relative consistency to its high in 2008 at -6.3%.
Fig. 5.1 Voter Turnout of All Citizens vs. Citizens Aged 25
to 44
80%
Percent Voted
70%
60%
50%
40%
All Citizens
30%
Citizens Aged 25 to 44
20%
10%
0%
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Presidential Election
Fig. 5.2 25 to 44 Years vs. All Citizens Percent Difference
1964
-0.3%
1968
-1.2%
1972
-0.3%
1976
1980
-0.5%
-0.5%
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
-5.0%
-4.9%
2004
2008
-1.5%
-3.4%
-3.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
-6.1%
-6.3%
6
Voter Turnout Among Citizens Aged 65 and Older
In the age group of 65 and older, the elections of 1964 and 1968 were the only years in which a
smaller percentage of its subset voted, as compared with the entire voting population. From 1972
to 2000, the positive difference grew (the lone exception being 1992, when the difference
dropped from 11.4% in 1988 to 8.8%); however, in the past two elections, the 65 and older age
group has seen the gap close, with the percent difference decreasing from 12.9% in 2000 to
10.6% percent in 2004, and to 9.9% in 2008. Despite this trend, 9.9% still marks the highest
positive difference among any of the age groups and racial groups surveyed in the CPS.
Fig. 6.1 Voter Turnout of All Citizens vs. Citizens Aged 65+
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
All Citizens
Citizens Aged 65 and Older
20%
10%
0%
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Presidential Elections
Fig. 6.2 65+ Citizens vs. All Citizens Percent Difference
11.4%
5.9%
1964
-3.0%
1968
-2.0%
0.5%
1972
7.8%
12.8% 12.9%
8.8%
10.6%
9.9%
3.0%
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
2004
2008