US Conference of Mayors
Workforce Development Council
Washington, DC
January 22, 2015


Economic update

What can localities learn from BLS data?

Working together to improve America’s economic data
2

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Unemployment rate continues to decline
Percent
11.0
10.0
9.0
December 2014
Level: 5.6
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Note : Data are seasonally adjusted. Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000.
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, January 9, 2015.
3.0
4
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
11.0
10.0
9.0

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December
145,000
Employment in total nonfarm
January 1990 - December 2014
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
140,000
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
December 2014 Level: 140,347
OTM Change: 252*
Jan 2008 peak: 138,365
Feb 2010 trough: 129,655
115,000
110,000
105,000
Jan.
1990
Jan.
1992
Jan.
1994
Jan.
1996
Jan.
1998
Jan.
2000
Jan.
2002
Jan.
2004
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, January 9, 2015.
Shaded areas represent recessions as denoted by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.
* denotes significance.
Jan.
2006
Jan.
2008
Jan.
2010
Jan.
2012
Jan.
2014

Recovery led by private-service industries
Employment change by selected supersector
Total nonfarm peak to trough and trough to current †
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Total nonfarm peak to trough: -8,710 trough to current: +10,692
-72
257
Mining and logging
-1,968
-2,272
658
Construction
786
Manufacturing
-1,176
-589
461
1,117
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
-405
540
Transportation and warehousing
-552
-293
-44
297
Information
Financial activities
-1,486
841
3,023
Professional and business services
Education and health services
1,971
Peak to trough -609
1,923
Leisure and hospitality
Trough to current
-523
-206
222
80
Other services
Government
-2,950 -2,200 -1,450 -700 50 800 1,550 2,300 3,050
† The total nonfarm employment peak was in January 2008; The total nonfarm employment trough was in February 2010.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, January 9, 2015
Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

All states have added jobs since jobs trough in February 2010—but not evenly
13.0% and over
10.0% to 12.9%
7.0% to 9.9%
4.0% to 6.9%
0.0% to 3.9%
Note : Percentage increase in nonfarm employment by state, seasonally adjusted, February 2010 – November 2014.
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
7


Data goals: A ccurate, O bjective,
R elevant, T imely and A ccessible

Provide data as a pure public good
 Like roads and clean air
 Help nation’s policymakers, businesses, and families make good decisions

Get best we can for Nation’s data dollar
9


Is the glass half full or half empty?
 It is an 8 oz. glass with 4 oz. of liquid

Equal access to data for all users






Employment & unemployment
 Federal Reserve economic indicators
Inflation and prices
 Social Security
 Income tax brackets
 Minimum wage
Pay and benefits
 Business negotiations
Spending and time use
 Researchers and policymakers
…and more!

12

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Percent
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Houston
3.5
Dallas
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.4
Miami San
Francisco
Phoenix Atlanta
2.1
Boston
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.7
0.6
United
States
-0.2
Los Angeles New York Chicago Washington Philadelphia
Note:
Total nonfarm employment, over-the-year-change, U.S. and 12 largest metropolitan areas, November 2014
Source : BLS, Current Employment Statistics Survey-State and Area. 13

Available at detailed geographies
Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjusted, November 2014
(U.S. rate = 5.8 percent)
Arkansas county unemployment rates, not seasonally adjusted, November 2014
7.0% or higher
6.0% to 6.9%
5.0% to 5.9%
4.0% to 4.9%
3.9% or lower
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Source : BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), November 2014.
14

Occupational wages
Heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers
Source : BLS, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES). 15

Local industry concentrations
Note : Location quotients (LQs) greater than 1.0 (blue) indicate counties with above average industry concentrations, LQs less than 1.0 (orange) indicate lower industry concentrations.
Source : BLS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), January 16, 2015
16

Annual percent change in wages
17
Source : BLS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), January 16, 2015

Number and rate of fatal occupational injuries, by industry sector, 2013
Source : BLS; Injuries, Illnesses, and Fatalities (IIF) Program; 2013 data are preliminary. 18


Encourage participation
 Local employers’ associations
 Families and advocacy groups
 Yourselves

Provide ideas and feedback
 As respondents—to reduce burden
 As users—to improve products

Speak up for national statistics
 When you use them, let people know—and why!
20

What we could do together:
Harness a key resource


Enhanced Unemployment Insurance wage records
 Standardize across states
 Enhance with demographic and labor market info on workers and employers
 Share securely in an efficient Big Data facility
–
Agreements in place across states and with statistical agencies
Result
 Better policy—design, target and evaluate
 Deeper understanding of local, regional, and statewide markets
 Better family and business decisions 21

What we can do for you
 Internet: www.bls.gov
 Sign up for email alerts
 Follow BLS on Twitter
 The Economics Daily
 Call or email BLS staff
 (202) 691-5200

BLSdata_staff@bls.gov
@bls.gov

Resources for Public Policy
Makers

Examples of presentations:
Understanding Inflation:
How BLS calculates consumer, producer, and import and export prices.
24

Questions?

Erica L. Groshen
Commissioner
202-691-7800 groshen.erica@bls.gov


BLS has a special, strong pact with the
American people
 We work hard to achieve exceptional voluntary cooperation from firms and families
 BLS staff honors and works to uphold public trust
–
Transparent methods and trusted products
–
Legal and procedural protections
27

Hurricane flood zone maps of Gulf and Atlantic coasts
28

29

30

31

Occupational Wages
Where are wages high? Where are they low?
U.S. wages and employment by location for as many as 800 detailed jobs for hundreds of industries
32 Source: BLS, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).