Popul Ecol (2001) 43:77–86 © The Society of Population Ecology and Springer-Verlag Tokyo 2001 SPECIAL FEATURE: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Shoko Sakai Phenological diversity in tropical forests Received: September 8, 2000 / Accepted: January 30, 2001 Abstract One of the most intriguing and complex characteristics of reproductive phenology in tropical forests is high diversity within and among forests. To understand such diversity, Newstrom et al. provided a systematic framework for the classification of tropical flowering phenology. They adopted frequency and regularity as criteria with priority, and classified plants in La Selva, Costa Rica, where most plants reproduced more than once a year irregularly. Many other studies have demonstrated annual cycles corresponding to rainfall patterns at the community level in Neotropical forests, including La Selva. On the other hand, supraannual flowering synchronized among various plant species, called general flowering, is known from aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forests in Southeast Asia. Within both forests, a wide spectrum of flowering patterns is found. This range of patterns suggests the great potential of tropical phenological studies to explore the selective pressures on phenology. Various abiotic and biotic factors can be selective agents. The shared pollinators hypothesis suggests that plant species sharing pollinators segregate flowering temporarily to minimize interspecific overlap in flowering times and thus minimize ineffective pollination or competition for pollinators, indicating strong phylogenetic constraints in timing and variation of flowering. Comparison of phenology within and among forests may help our understanding of phenological diversity. Attempts are now being made to develop a common language to communicate concepts and render interpretations of data more compatible among investigators and to create a network to promote comparative studies. S. Sakai Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Ancón, Republic of Panama Present address: Graduate School of Human and Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Nihonmatsu-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan Tel. 181-75-753-6849; Fax 181-75-753-2999 Key words Plant reproductive phenology · General flowering · Pollination · Predator satiation · Resource availability · Phylogenetic constraint Introduction Phenology is the study of the periodicity or timing of recurring biological events. What causes their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and how does this timing affect interrelation among phases of the same or different species? In the case of plants, phenological events involve flowering, fruiting, leaf flushing, and germination (Leith 1974). It is certainly conceivable that the schedule of these events has important effects on survival or reproductive success. Not only abiotic environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity, but also biotic factors including intraspecific and interspecific competition for various resources, i.e., interactions with other organisms such as herbivores, pollinators, and seed dispersers, can be selective agents for plant phenology. Some studies have showed experimentally that germination, flowering, and leaf production out of season caused low survivorship of seedlings (Tevis 1958), low seed production (Augspurger 1981), and a high predation rate (Aide 1992), respectively. On the other hand, plant phenology can greatly affect animals that use young leaves, flowers, and mature and immature fruits through temporal changes in plant resource availability (van Schaik et al. 1993). Because of the importance and complexity of phenology, many studies have been conducted from various points of view (reviewed in Rathcke and Lacey 1985; Primack 1987; van Schaik et al. 1993), mostly in the temperate region (Newstrom et al. 1994a,b). One principal characteristic of phenology in tropical forests may be high diversity, partly because of the weaker physical constraints on schedules of biological activities (Gentry 1974; Janzen 1978; Sarmiento and Monasterio 1983; Newstrom et al. 1994a,b). Gentry (1974) may have been among the first to indicate the existence of higher diversity in phenology in tropical forests than among those 78 of the temperate zone and to discuss its significance in relation to reproductive success. This study showed the great potential of tropical phenological studies to explore selective pressures on phenology. Few studies, however, have focused on phenological diversity among species. Most studies on plant phenology in tropical forests have been conducted to describe community-level patterns of leafing, flowering, and fruiting, often for purposes of studying resource availability for consumer animals (Frankie et al. 1974; Croat 1975; Putz 1979; Opler et al. 1980; Foster 1982; Koptur et al. 1988; Murali and Sukumar 1994; Justiniano and Fredericksen 2000; Morellato et al., in press). From a botanical perspective, individual-level behavior has been analyzed in more detail in population-level studies for rather short time periods, focusing on physiological releasing mechanisms (Augspurger 1981; Reich and Borchert 1982) and degree or effects of synchronization within a population (Augspurger 1980, 1983; Primack 1980). In this review, I first briefly introduce the framework for studies on tropical phenology proposed by Newstrom et al. (1994a,b). Although one problem concerned with phenological diversity is the difficulty of describing phenology and confusion in terminology, a conceptual framework has been proposed by Newstrom et al. (1994a,b) to improve communication. Second, I review two contrasting flowering patterns: flowering phenology in seasonal neotropical forests, and the general flowering phenomenon in dipterocarp forests of Southeast Asia. Unfortunately, phenological patterns in other tropical regions have scarcely been studied. I then mention potential factors that shape flowering phenology in tropical forests. Finally, I propose comparative approaches to examine some possible causes for different phenological behavior. Description of phenology patterns Classification of flowering phenology in tropical forests has been attempted by different authors in different ways (Gentry 1974; Frankie et al. 1974; Opler et al. 1980; Bawa 1983; Augspurger 1983). For example, categories used by Opler et al. (1980) were based on duration and synchrony. They categorized flowering behaviors of treelets and shrubs into “continuous, “ “extended,” and “brief, “ and further divided the latter two into “synchronous” and “asynchronous. “ Gentry (1974) classified the flowering phenology of the Bignoniaceae into four flowering types: “steady state,” “cornucopia,” “big bang,” and “multiple bang,” based on duration, frequency, and amplitude, and discussed the ecological significance of the differences in phenology among species in relation to pollination systems. These classifications, however, were not used by other authors for comparison with data from other forests, perhaps because definitions of the terms were unclear or not sufficiently quantitative. Furthermore, such classification covered only a subset of the diverse patterns found in the field and therefore was not general. Newstrom et al. (1994a,b) were the first to provide a systematic framework for the classification of tropical flowering phenology. Because many terms had multiple connotations and a number of terms were used to indicate the same phenomenon, they selected and explicitly redefined terms for phenology patterns. For example, the word “seasonal” means the temporal association of an event with a recognizable climatic season, according to Newstrom et al. (1994b). Thus, changes in flowering species, or the proportions of flowering individuals during a year, cannot be called seasonal, when association between the phenological event and a particular climatic interval is not clear. Newstrom et al. (1994a,b) suggested that phenological patterns could be described with several indices, including frequency, duration, amplitude, synchrony, and regularity. When the event is seasonal, the date of the event can be added. In contrast with temperate forests, where most plants reproduce once a year with high synchronization within and among individuals, these characters assume most importance in tropical forests. Among these characters, Newstrom et al. adopted frequency as a criterion with priority, and classified plants in La Selva, a wet lowland tropical forests in Costa Rica. The other argument by Newstrom et al. (1994a,b) is that we must be conscious of hierarchical aspects of phenophases in tropical forests. A similar analysis has not been an issue in temperate forests, where flowering is usually synchronized within a population, and the pattern is annual at every level except for a small number of species with a strong masting phenomenon. In the case of flowering phenology, the lowest level of analysis can be an individual flower on an inflorescence. The phenology of individual flowers is summed to form patterns at higher hierarchical levels. Such levels include the inflorescence, the branch, the whole plant, the population, the guild, and the whole community. For example, flowering of Boesenbergia grandifolia (Zingiberaceae) in Borneo showed irregular subannual or annual flowering patterns at the individual level but continuous flowering at the population level (Sakai 2000a). For studies on selective forces for phenology, analyses at the individual level are essential (Janzen 1978; Herrera 1998). Annual cycles at the community level in the Neotropics One prominent theme in tropical community studies is the periodicity or regularity of biological activities. In the temperate region, clear annual cycles in plant phenology predominate. Presumably, regular rhythms in temperature and daylength and the existence of winter, which limits all biological activities, impose such patterns. In the tropics, seasonal fluctuation in mean temperature is often less than the fluctuation within a single day, and changes in photoperiod are very small. In contrast to temperate forests, periodic change in rainfall caused by movements of the intertropical convergence zone often plays an important role as proximate and ulti- 79 mate factors for tropical plant phenology (van Schaik et al. 1993). Dry seasons within an annual cycle occur in most tropical regions, and many studies have shown a correlation between tropical plant phenology and rainfall (Augspurger 1981; Borchert 1983; Reich and Borchert 1984) demonstrating existence of annual patterns of plant reproduction even in the tropics. Most neotropical forest communities studied show flowering and fruiting peaks near the end of the dry season (Janzen 1967; Croat 1975; Foster 1982; Frankie et al. 1974; Hilty 1980; Opler et al. 1980; Bullock and SolisMagallanes 1990; Justiniano and Fredericksen 2000). The pattern may be caused by high insolation and photosynthesis in dry seasons or by enhancement of germination and seedling survival by adjusting fruiting to precede the beginning of the wet season (van Schaik et al. 1993). Examination at the species and population levels can reveal wide variation in flowering phenology in a single forest. In spite of the annual rhythm observed at the community level, only 29% of 254 trees showed an annual flowering pattern at La Selva in Costa Rica (Fig. 1) (Newstrom et al. 1994b). The predominant flowering type was the subannual pattern (flowering more than once a year, often irregularly), accounting for 55% of the trees. This forest is rather wet without a severe dry season, and monthly precipitation never drops to less than 100 mm (Sanford et al. 1994). Although comparative data are not available from other neotropical forests, a higher proportion of annual flowering species may occur in forests with stronger seasonality. Wright and Calderon (1995) analyzed flowering phenology of 217 species with 230 seed traps for 5 years on Barro Colorado Island (BCI) in Panama. They found that mean flowering dates of species were distributed throughout the year, and that concentration of flowering times (the length of the mean vector in circular analysis [Batschelet 1981]) spanned the entire possible range. Although many studies have suggested a correlation between rainfall and flowering or leaf flushing, external cues have been experimentally demonstrated in only some plant species. In some species, water conditions in the soil were shown to play an important role by irrigation experiments (Augspurger 1981; Reich and Borchert 1982; Wright and Cornejo 1990a,b; Wright 1991; Tissue and Wright 1995). However, a large-scale irrigation experiment (2.25 ha) in BCI with a strong seasonal pattern in rainfall showed that irrigation had no effect on the timing of leaf fall, leaf flush, flowering, or fruiting for most species of canopy trees (Wright and Cornejo 1990a,b). Deep-rooting canopy trees possibly do not experience a water deficit, even in dry seasons (Steinberg et al. 1989). The mechanisms for synchronized flowering are still unknown for most species. Little is known about long-term changes in plant behavior in seasonal tropical forests. Year-to-year fluctuations in fruit production have been studied most intensively in masting trees in temperate forests (reviewed by Kelly 1994; Herrera 1998; Herrera et al. 1998). For this phenomenon, predator satiation, i.e., starving the predators in low seed years or swamping seed predators in high years (Janzen 1971), is one of the plausible explanations. In tropical forests, long-term fluctuation in fruit production was best Fig. 1. The proportion of subannual, annual, supraannual, and continual flowering types among trees at La Selva, Costa Rica (top) (254 trees; data from Newstrom et al. 1994b) and Lambir, Malaysia (bottom) (187 tree species, data from Sakai et al. 1999) (modified from Sakai 2000b). In the graph, the general flowering type of Lambir is included in supraannual type. Note that the graph of La Selva is on an individual basis while that of Lambir is on a species basis. However, it may be valid to compare flowering types between plants at La Selva and at Lambir, because Newstrom et al. (1994b) stated the patterns found on an individual basis are similar to that on a species basis studied in BCI. According to 9.5-year seed trap data, yearto-year fluctuation of monthly total fruit production on BCI was rather small (CV , 1; Wright et al. 1999) compared with the criteria of masting (CV . 1.5) proposed by Silvertown (1980). Nevertheless, Wright et al. (1999) reported that extremely low fruit production at more than 10-year intervals brought about famines and regulated mammal population density. They argued that El Niño caused higher fruit production, which resulted in reduction of stored energy of plants for reproduction. In the following year, on the other hand, fewer stored reserves and the cloudy dry seasons associated with La Niña depress reproduction and cause famine and abrupt reduction of 80 fruigivore population densities. Such famine was observed four times during 49 years. Dominance of supraannual pattern in a dipterocarp forest In contrast with most neotropical forests, a large portion of Asian tropical forests from Sumatra to the Philippines do not have a clear annual cycle even in rainfall, partly because both the northeast monsoon in summer and the southwest monsoon in winter bring predominantly warm, humid air masses and precipitation to this region (McGregor and Nieuwolt 1998). In this equatorial monsoon region, precipitation patterns are dominated by intraseasonal fluctuation with 30- to 60-day cycles (known as the 40- to 50-day tropical oscillation) and interannual fluctuation caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biannual Oscillation (Yasunari 1995; McGregor and Nieuwolt 1998). Therefore, fluctuation in rainfall is quite unpredictable. Periods of water deficit, which are often not evident from long-term average values, do occur but their frequency, duration, timing, and severity vary from year to year (Whitmore 1984). Interestingly, the phenomenon with multiyear intervals, called general flowering (GF, or mass flowering), is known from lowland dipterocarp forests in this region (Ashton et al. 1988). The forests are characterized by dominance of the plant family Dipterocarpaceae in the canopy and emergent tree layers and high tree diversity (Whitmore 1984). GF usually occurs every 2 to 10 years. During GF, many plant species including most dipterocarp species and species of other families flower sequentially for several months, but a few flowers can be seen in non-GF periods (Sakai et al. 1999; Sakai 2000b). In other words, the forest has supraannual seasonality at the community level. GF has great effects not only on animals in the forests but also on the local economy through production of illipe nuts (fruits of Shorea, section Pachycarpae), an important commercial item for export (Blicher 1994), and through increase of edible fruits in the forests or on local farms. In spite of the importance and uniqueness of this phenomenon, our knowledge about GF is limited, although the phenomenon has been known for a long time (Ridley 1901; Wood 1956; Medway 1972; Janzen 1974; Cockburn 1975; Appanah 1985, 1993; Ashton et al. 1988; Ashton 1989; Corlett 1990). Detailed long-term studies on GF, however, have recently come from Sarawak and West Kalimantan. The Canopy Biology Program in Sarawak (CBPS; Inoue and Hamid 1994, 1997) monitored about 300 plant species at Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, and focused on pollination biology during three general flowering events in the 1990s (Momose et al. 1998b; Sakai et al. 1999; Kato et al. 2000). Curran and her collaborators monitored 54 species of Dipterocarpaceae for more than 10 years, focusing on seed survivorship and seedling recruitment during GF at Gunung Palung National Park in West Kalimantan (Curran et al. 1999; Curran and Leighton 2000; Curran and Webb 2000). CBPS has monitored the phenological behavior of about 500 plants of various taxa and habits since 1992 using a canopy observation system with tree towers and aerial walkways constructed in an 8-ha permanent plot (Inoue et al. 1995; Yumoto et al. 1996). When the censuses were initiated, the forest was at the peak of fruit dispersal following GF in 1992. From 1993 to 1995, the proportion of flowering plants was very low, around 3%. However, in May 1996, the proportion increased dramatically to reach 17% and 20% for individuals and species, respectively, and GF was observed (Sakai et al. 1999). The concentration of reproduction in GF is clear from analyses at species and individual tree levels. Of 527 flowering events observed during 43 months from July 1993 to December 1996, 57% occurred in 10 months of GF from March to December 1996. Among species that flowered at least once in the 43 months, 85% reproduced during the GF period. Most species showed strict synchronization within species, and major flowering periods of species were usually less than 1 month. Participation in GF was observed among various plant groups, which confirmed that GF was a phenomenon operating at the community level. Sakai et al. (1999) classified species into flowering types using flowering data of individual plants for the 43 months. The first is a GF type, which flowers only in the GF period. Three additional categories were based on flowering frequency: supraannual (flowered once or twice in 43 months), annual (flowered three or four times), and subannual types (flowered more than four times). Species in which reproduction was not observed during the 43 months were tentatively categorized as nonflowering. According to these criteria, 35% of 257 species were of the GF type. Species of this GF type were found in plants of different families and life forms, from epiphytic orchids to emergent dipterocarp trees. Additionally, concentration of reproduction during a GF period was found not only in plants of the GF type but also among annual and supraannual plants (Sakai et al. 1999). Supraannual and annual species also reproduced more actively during a GF period than during non-GF years. Responses of animal consumers of fruits and floral resources to GF are most dramatic. Curran and Leighton (2000) reported a drastic increase in encounter rate for nomadic vertebrates such as bearded pigs (Sus barbatus) and parakeets (Psittacula longicauda) following the fruiting peak in two GF events, whereas they destroyed only small portions of dispersed fruits because of high synchronization within and among dipterocarp species. For bearded pigs, GF may be essential for reproduction (Curran and Leighton 2000). On the other hand, giant honeybees (Apis dorsata) are known to immigrate into dipterocarp forests in GF. In 8ha plot in Lambir, nests of giant honeybees were found only during or just after GF (Nagamitsu 1998). The numbers of giant honeybees caught by monthly light traps per night were 0 during non-GF while the numbers can be nearly 200 in GF (T. Itioka, unpublished data). Stingless bees were resident at Lambir, but establishment of new nests at standard, artificial nesting sites were observed only in GF (Nagamitsu 1998). 81 It is obvious that some external factors trigger GF because GF occur irregularly. One possible candidate of the cue may be the severe drought sometimes associated with El Niño events. Correlation between drought and GF has been reported from various locations (Wood 1956; Burgess 1972; Medway 1972; Janzen 1974; Whitmore 1984; Appanah 1985; van Schaik 1986; Kiyono and Hastaniah 1999). Correlations between El Niño and GF were reported from eastern Peninsular Malaysia (Ashton et al. 1988) and West Kalimantan (Curran et al. 1999; Curran and Leighton 2000). However, initiation of GF sometimes precedes drought, and years of GF do not always coincide among geographic regions (Ashton et al. 1988; Corlett and LaFrankie 1998; Yasuda et al. 1999). On the other hand, Ashton et al. (1988) analyzed 11-year climate data and occurrences of GF based on illipe nut export records. They concluded that a drop of daily minimum temperature was most likely to be the cue for GF. Drops of temperature just before GF were observed in different places (Ashton et al. 1988; Sakai et al. 1999; Yasuda et al. 1998), but some GF events occurred without a preceding temperature drop (Corlett and LaFrankie 1998). More than one climatic signal may be a potential trigger for GF. For further examination of the hypotheses, experimental approaches are essential because various climatic variables covary. Evolutionary factors involved in GF are controversial. Sakai et al. (1999) suggested three possible explanations: predator satiation, promotion of animal pollination, and paucity of climatic cues suitable for triggering flowering. Predator satiation implies that long intervals between GF limited the predator populations so that dipterocarp seeds can escape from predation (Janzen 1974). Curran and Leighton (2000) showed that seed predators destroyed most dipterocarp fruits in a minor GF year whereas most of the fruits survived in major GF years, thus supporting the idea. Although the hypothesis has generally been accepted (Ashton et al. 1988), Sakai et al. (1999) suggested that it does not explain participation of plants rarely attacked by vertebrate predators. Promotion of pollination is one other possible factor for GF, because observed fruit set was higher in GF than in other years (Yap and Chan 1990; Sakai et al. 1999). Insect populations and activities increase during GF (Nagamitsu 1998; Kato et al. 2000; T. Itioka, unpublished data), and thus scarce pollinators may become more abundant. The last explanation, paucity of climatic cues, explains synchronization among various species by adoption of the same flowering trigger due to paucity of potential climatic variables as the flowering trigger under unpredictable and uniform climatic condition. Even in tropical forests, where most plant species show low population densities, outcrossing is dominated in most plant species, as revealed by studies using genetic markers (Gan et al. 1977; Hamrick and Murawski 1994). For outcrossing, flowering synchronization with conspecifics is essential. Under aseasonal conditions, many unrelated plants may use the same, and most clear, environmental signal as a flowering trigger. All the hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive, should be explored. What determines flowering phenology? Timing It is well accepted that reproductive phenology affects plant fitness through reproductive processes such as pollination, seed development, dispersal, and germination and seedling survival (Table 1). Thus, flowering phenology is subject to selection caused by seasonally variable biotic and abiotic factors. Abiotic factors are mostly represented by various climatic conditions, whereas biotic factors include pests, herbivores, pollinators, and other plants that share pollinators, along with predators and dispersers of seeds and fruits. Many studies conducted so far emphasize the adaptive importance of flowering at a particular time (Table 1) (reviewed in Rathcke and Lacey 1985; van Schaik et al. 1993). For tropical forest plants, shared pollinators have received particular attention. The hypothesis suggests that plant species sharing common pollinators segregate flowering temporally to minimize interspecific overlap in flowering times and thus ineffective pollination or competition for pollinators (Stiles 1977; Appanah 1985; Ashton et al. 1988). However, this hypothesis is rarely supported by experimental or field studies (Wheelwright 1985; Murray et al. 1987; Wright and Calderon 1995). Most statistical tests of temporal flowering segregation have shown flowering to be aggregated (Poole and Rathcke 1979) or indistinguishable from a random pattern (Wheelwright 1985). Different statistical tests can give different results (Rathcke 1983). Null hypotheses for the tests still need further consideration, partly because flowering phenology is thought to be under strong phylogenetic constraints (see “Phylogenetic constraints” section). Other studies suggested that synchronized flowering of different species could facilitate pollination through increase of resource density and local pollinator attraction (Schemske 1981; Sakai et al. 1999). Flowering may, however, be completely out of phase with pollinator abundance (Zimmerman et al. 1989). Variation in flowering patterns Compared with timing of flowering, fewer studies have focused on variation in flowering patterns such as duration, frequency, and flowering intervals, which is in contrast to recent progress in understanding of variation in leaf phenology with cost–benefit analyses (Kikuzawa 1991; Reich 1994; Reich et al. 1991, 1992; Mulkey et al. 1995; Kitajima et al. 1997a,b). Flowering duration of individual plants has often been discussed as affecting pollination success of the plant through regulation of pollen flow and foraging behavior of pollinators (see Table 1) (Bawa 1983). Regulation of pollen flow includes avoidance of self-pollination by reducing flower number per day and promotes pollinator movement among plants. Different pollinators with different foraging behaviors favor different flowering patterns. For example, plants pollinated by nonterritorial hummingbirds, which 82 Table 1. Important hypotheses to explain different reproductive phenology in tropical forests Phenological trait hypothesis Importance Literature for tropical phenology Timing Abiotic factors (climatic condition) Radiation (resource limitation) Water limitation Wind seed dispersal Some Some Some van Schaik 1986; van Schaik et al. 1993 Reich and Borchert 1984; van Schaik et al. 1993 Frankie et al. 1974; Foster 1982; Gautier-Hion et al. 1985a Frankie et al. 1974; Janzen 1967; Garwood 1983 Sakai et al. 1999 Germination and seedling survival Availability of flowering cue Biotic factors Interaction with animals Availability of animal pollinators Availability of animal seed dispersers Synchrony among plant species Promotion of animal pollination Promotion of animal seed dispersal Predator satiation Asychrony among plant species Competition for pollinators Competition for fruit dispersers Interspecific pollen transfer Relationship with other phenophases (e.g., leaf flushing) Duration Pollination Predation Resource availability Frequency Pollination a Some Unknown Some Desgranges 1978; Feinsinger 1970; Zimmerman et al. 1989a Baird 1980; Leigh et al. 1993; Levy 1988 Some Rare? Rare Rare? Schemske 1981; Koptur et al. 1988; Sakai et al. 1999 Wheelright and Orians 1982 Janzen 1974; Ashton et al. 1988; Curran and Leighton 2000 Rare? Appanah 1985; Ashton et al. 1988; Stiles 1975; Wheelwright 1985; Ratchke and Lacey 1985a; Ollerton and Lack 1992a; Sakai 2000aa Smyth 1970; Snow 1971; Gleeson 1981*; Rathcke and Lacey 1985a Rare Unknown Important Borchert 1983; van Schaik et al. 1993 Probably important Some Unknown Gentry 1974; Augspurger 1981; Bawa 1983 Augspurger 1981; Ims 1995 Bawa 1983 Probably important Gentry 1974; Momose et al. 1998a Reports with negative results or suggestions regularly visit flowers of low-density plant species, continue to open small numbers of flowers a day for a long time (Stiles 1975). On the other hand, large display by strict synchronization within and among individuals was important for attraction of bee pollinators in a tropical shrub (Augspurger 1980). In addition to the pollinator aspects, escaping from predators (Augspurger 1981) and spreading the risk of uncertain pollination (Rathcke and Lacey 1985) may also be important, but these aspects have rarely been examined. A few studies have examined differences in flowering frequency among plants with different ecological characters (Gentry 1974; Momose 1998a). For example, Momose et al. (1998a) addressed theoretical differences in flowering intervals among the plants belonging to different forest strata observed in a dipterocarp forest. The model assumes that the flowering intervals of mature trees maximize visits by pollinators, including opportunistic insects and social bees, throughout their lifetimes after they reach their maximum size. According to the model, trees in the highest canopy layers reproduce at long intervals. It is their optimal strategy to delay flowering to make huge displays to attract many opportunistic pollinators because they have low mortality and high productivity. In contrast, the canopy or subcanopy trees cannot wait so long between reproductive episodes because of higher mortality. For these trees, it is optimal to frequently produce smaller displays to attract social bees, which recruit colony members when a display exceeds a threshold size. The higher proportion of social bee-pollinated plants in canopy and subcanopy trees than in emergent trees also supports this idea. Like Gentry (1974), Momose et al. (1998a) suggested pollinator behavior was an important selective force for flowering phenology. Phylogenetic constraints Studies from tropical forests and other regions also show that flowering phenology is a conservative trait within evolutionary lineages (Kochmer and Handel 1986; Johnson 1992; Ollerton and Lack 1992; Wright and Calderon 1995). Kochmer and Handel (1986) observed that most of the variation in the flowering times of the animal-pollinated angiosperms of Japan (1575 species) and of North and South Carolina (USA) (2298 species) was explained by family membership. In addition, most families showed similar flowering times in Japan and Carolina. Wright and Calderon (1995) examined quantitative (217 species) and qualitative (1173 species) flowering data of plants on BCI, and found that both the mean and the variance of flowering times were similar among congeners and, although less significant, also present among confamilials. For most genera 83 examined, the shared-pollinator hypothesis was rejected. Although strong phylogenetic constraints detected by the studies do not necessarily indicate absence of adaptation in phenology, the diversity of tropical flowering phenologies should be guided by phylogenetic perspectives. This means, for example, that in the case of GF we may need to direct attention to synchronization of flowering among species of different families rather than within a family or Dipterocarpaceae, or we should study dipterocarps that do not share GF phenology patterns. Comparison of phenology The first step in studying diversity of flowering patterns, to which less attention has been paid, is the description of phenology patterns. Descriptions enable us to compare phenology among plants with different traits and thus to examine factors that may affect flowering phenology. Comparison of phenology is sometimes very useful, because the possibility of manipulating phenology and making experiments is limited in phenological studies. In addition, all we can measure directly or manipulate are the relationships between phenology and proximate factors, largely constrained by phylogenetic blueprints. Comparison among species Comparison among species within a community with different characteristics may help us to understand the effects of these characteristics on flowering phenology. One does not have to consider effects of climate, because all plants in the community are basically under the same climatic condition. One possible way to compare phenology patterns among species is classification of phenology as proposed by Newstrom et al. (1994a,b), which is primarily based on flowering frequency (see the section “Description of phenology patterns”). With this classification, Newstrom et al. (1994b) found a significant difference in flowering frequency between canopy and subcanopy trees and suggested that the difference was caused by pollinator stratification (Bawa et al. 1985). On the other hand, Momose et al. (1998a) examined the flowering frequency of trees of different height at Lambir and suggested that these trees maximized pollinator visits in their lifetime. In the classification of Newstrom et al. (1994a,b), seasonality and periodicity, characteristics related to timing, are not considered. One should bear in mind that flowering or any events may not always occur annually or periodically, as represented by the GF plants in dipterocarp forests. Although circular analysis is often used to see synchrony, periodicity, and seasonality (Zar 1996), it may not be appropriate when intervals of the focal events have irregular intervals or cycles other than 1 year. When periodicity is not the issue, other analyses without assuming periodicity may be better to test synchrony (Primack 1980; Augspurger 1983; Sakai et al. 1999; Sakai 2000a). Comparison among communities Comparison of reproductive phenology among communities is of interest for at least two reasons. Comparison among communities under different climates is useful to consider effects of climate. Van Schaik et al. (1993) compared timing of phenological activities at different tropical forests of the world, based on 53 studies, and concluded that peaks in irradiance were accompanied by peaks in flushing and flowering unless water stress made this impossible. Next, effects of plant reproductive phenology on animals depending on flowers and fruits can be exmianed by comparison among forests. Janzen (1974) considered that Malaysian dipterocarp forests maintained smaller mammal populations than in the Neotropics, because dipterocarp forests provided only a little food for mammals during nonGF periods (but see Sakai 2000b). Comparisons of phenologies among different forests, however, have rarely been attempted, partly because biologists monitor and describe plant activities with different methods so that direct comparison is essentially impossible. Studies with different goals adopt different methods of observation and analysis, providing different results with varying accuracy (Chapman et al. 1992, 1994; Zhang and Wang 1995). For comparison among communities, again, classification based on flowering frequencies may be useful. This approach clearly showed differences in phenology patterns between La Selva and Lambir (see Fig. 1). There are advantages to using frequencies to compare phenology data from different studies. First, flowering frequency can be calculated from most phenology data so long as the data distinguish individual plants. Second, frequency is robust against variation of the census frequency. When flowering period is very short compared with census frequency, reproduction can be counted if parts of flower buds, flowers, or inflorescences after flowering are recognized by the observer. Finally, frequency is less affected by differences in threshold levels. If the threshold level to recognize activities is different between two observers, the length of the event recorded by the two may be different (Fig. 2). On the other hand, the number of the event is one for both observers. Monitoring of phenology with seed traps may be most appropriate for direct comparison between sites. The method is thought to be more objective, because with this method one does not have to choose species and individuals for observation. The data are usually quantitative, although placement and the number of traps are issues in obtaining data of high confidence. For example, whether dipterocarp forests with GF, in which most large trees reproduce infrequently, produce fewer fruits than other forests dominated by subannual and annual flowering species is an important question to be answered by seed trap studies (Sakai 2000b). Because this method does not distinguish individual plants, it can be combined with direct observation of tagged plants. Seed traps provide useful data especially for seed dispersal and monitoring of floral and fruit resources. In spite of relatively mild environments, contrary to earlier expecta- 84 References Fig. 2. Diagram showing temporal change in multitude of phenological events and duration of the event recorded by observers with different methods. The threshold of observer B is higher than that of A; thus, duration of the event recorded by B is shorter than A. The number of the event, however, is one for both observers, unless the event is strongly bimodal tion, studies conducted so far showed that plant phenological variation among seasons, years, forests, and species in tropical forests is rather high (van Schaik et al. 1993). There is no doubt that consumers are strongly affected by fluctuation of resource availability, but the frequency, severity, and consequences of such fluctuations are just beginning to be explored. Concluding remarks In this review, I have outlined diversity of flowering phenology in the tropics and pointed out that the plants often flower without regularity and synchrony, in contrast to temperate forests. Examination of periodicity and seasonality, as well as year-to-year variation of phenological events, require long-term observation of particular plants, especially in tropical forests with diverse phenology types. Because funding systems rarely provide support for more than several years, it is difficult for biologists to continue observation frequently and regularly for a long time. Long-term monitoring of plant phenology is more important now that global environmental change is a critical issue (Reich 1994; Corlett and LaFrankie 1998). Comparison of phenology within and among forests may help our understanding of phenological diversity and relevant changes in global patterns and processes. 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