4/10/12 Science in Ac(on: How can society prepare for a warmer world? Brian Helmuth
Director
Environment and Sustainability Program
University of South Carolina
helmuth@environ.sc.edu
Contending with global climate change •  MiEgaEon: ReducEon in Greenhouse gases in an effort to stave off or slow worst impacts of global climate change (i.e. reducing the impacts of climate change on our grandchildren’s world) •  AdaptaEon: Preparing today’s society for ongoing and projected impacts of climate change “Take-­‐home point number 1” We are commi/ed to change •  Meehl et al. (2005) Science 307: 1769-­‐1772 •  “….even if the concentraEons of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already commi/ed to further global warming of about another half degree [0.5°C] and an addiEonal 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century.” What informaEon can science provide? ³ Where are impacts most likely to occur (and where are they least likely to occur): effects are highly heterogeneous ³ Ecological forecasEng: Can we predict winners and losers in ecosystems (and proacEvely use that informaEon to plan for the future by providing that informaEon to decision makers)? Warming is Not a Uniform Process •  Climate change is a worldwide phenomenon, but has high spaEal and temporal variability in its magnitude Hoegh-­‐Guldberg and Bruno 2010 1 4/10/12 “Take home Point number 2” Thermal Performance Curve •  Organisms vary in their physiological responses to temperature, CO2, acidificaEon and water availability •  There will be “winners” and “losers” •  We can measure many of these relaEonships using performance curves “Warmer and we/er” is good for some plants and animals but very bad for others Take home point Number 3 •  Organisms all have unique ways of “experiencing the world” •  Climate is changing, but it is weather that impacts organisms •  How do we measure “the environment”? “Climate (30+ year trends) trains the weather, but weather throws the Punches” Weather Climate (graphics (and catch phrase) courtesy Deke Arndt, NOAA) 2 4/10/12 Heat budget model
“Weather forecasts for non-human organisms”
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NCA Goal and Vision When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe John Muir, My First Summer in the Sierra •  The overarching goal is to enhance the ability of the United States to an8cipate, mi8gate and adapt to changes in the global environment. •  The vision is to advance an inclusive, broad-­‐based, and sustained process for assessing and communica8ng scien8fic knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabili8es associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-­‐
making across the United States. 16 ` helmuth@environ.sc.edu 3