Accounting, Distribution, (Un?)stable
Dynamics, and Fundamental
Uncertainty
Lance Taylor
New School for Social Research
Simple SAM
Current Outlays
Output
Costs
Output
Uses
Incomes
Wages
Profits
Taxes
Flow of
funds
Macro
balance
Totals
Wages
Profits
Fiscal
Cap. form
Totals
Much More Complicated SAM (2009)
2009 (Annual)
Sources
of income
Output
HOUSEHOLDS
Labor compensation
Proprietors' income and rental
income
Consumption of fixed capital by
households and NPOs
Personal interest and dividend
income
Business transfer payments to
HOU (net)
Government social benefits to
persons
NONFINANCIAL BUSINESS
Consumption of fixed capital
Statistical discrepancy
Net operating surplus
Wage accruals less
disbursements
GOVERNMENT
Taxes on production and
imports
Subsidies
Government consumption of
fixed capital
Current surplus of government
enterprises
Taxes on corporate income from
BUS
Business transfer payments to
GOV (net)
Personal current taxes
Taxes from the ROW
Contributions for government
social insurance
Current transfer receipts from
persons
Government interest and misc
asset receipts
Government dividends receipts
REST OF THE WORLD
US Imports of goods and
services
US income paid to ROW
Taxes on corporate income paid
to the ROW
Business transfer payments to
ROW (net)
Personal current transfer
payments to ROW (net)
Government current transfer
payments to ROW
FINANCIAL BUSINESS
Personal interest payments
US income receipts from ROW
Government interest payments
Business dividends paid
HOUSEHOLDS
NONFINANCIAL BUSINESS
GOVERNMENT
REST OF THE WORLD
FINANCIAL BUSINESS
Total
9,361.20
7,799.40
HHS
9,845.90
-
Current expenditures
GOV
ROW
2,460.20
1,587.40
39.60
2,100.50
-
BUS
FIN
HHS
354.10
Capital expenditures
BUS
GOV
ROW
1,195.10
506.90
FIN
Total
15,949.60
13,127.80
1,626.50
GDP
13,973.4
1,269.10
292.70
13,127.8
1,626.50
39.60
3,340.90
1,250.00
118.30
1,972.60
1,271.40
5.00
5.00
2,016.40
-
341.90
2,100.50
-
-
-
14.80
3,345.90
143.10
3,787.60
122.20
20.90
498.90
2,631.90
1,023.20
(59.70)
323.50
(15.60)
245.90
96.00
963.10
14.80
968.10
85.20
1,976.20
66.10
21.20
69.50
-
1,976.20
498.90
23.50
(2.30)
66.10
-
217.10
217.10
554.10
69.50
357.90
642.40
-
1,771.50
642.40
357.90
554.10
977.30
354.10
2,389.10
1,195.10
(1,200.50)
506.90
387.30
(497.00)
15,949.70
SUMMARY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT
Total current expenditure
Total current income
Current surplus
13,127.80
3,345.90
3,787.60
2,631.90
1,771.50
HHS
12,150.50
13,127.80
977.30
BUS
956.80
3,345.90
2,389.10
GOV
4,988.10
3,787.60
(1,200.50)
ROW
2,244.60
2,631.90
387.30
FIN
2,268.50
1,771.50
(497.00)
Row total =>
Column total =>
Discrepancy=>
Total
22,608.50
24,664.70
2,056.20
HOU NET LENDING
BUS NET LENDING
GOV NET LENDING
ROW NET LENDING
623.20
1,194.00
(1,707.40)
387.30
(497.00)
24,664.70
24,664.80
0.10
623.20
697.00
(1,707.40)
387.30
Income and Expenditure Flows for Non‐Household Sectors (2009)
Levels ($ Trillions)
BUSINESS
(Incomes)
BUSINESS
(Outlays)
GOVERNMENT
(Incomes)
GOVERNMENT
ROW (Incomes) ROW (Outlays)
(Outlays)
FINANCE
(Incomes)
FINANCE
(Outlays)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
(1.00)
(2.00)
HH (INCOME)
BUS (INCOME)
GOV (INCOME)
ROW(INCOME)
FIN (INCOME)
BUS(EXPENDITURES)
GOV(EXPENDITURE)
ROW(EXPENDITURE)
FIN(EXPENDITURES)
SAVINGS
HH (EXPENDITURES)
US Income Size Distribution Adjusted to the NIPA (2009)
Current 2009 US Income Size Distribution Adjusted to the National Income and Product Accounts
Totals in
US$ Billions
Adjusted to
NIPA
Income
Sources
Wages
Transfers
Finance
Proprietor's
Income and
CCA
Total Income
Outlays
Consumption
Contributions
to Social
Insurance
Taxes
Interest paid
Saving
Total Income
Totals in US $
Thousands
(Adjusted to
NIPA)
Mean Income
(Before
Taxes)
Mean Income
(After Taxes)
Savings Rate
(on after tax
income)
Mean Rate of
Contributions
to Social
Insurance
Mean Rate of
Taxes
Mean Overall
Tax Rate
First Quintile
Second
Quintile
Third
Quintile
Fourth
Quintile
81-90%
91-99%
Top 1%
Totals for
Top
Quintile
Total
345.0
273.8
25.0
673.5
490.5
71.7
1100.3
517.3
170.7
1737.2
459.5
295.0
1317.6
184.9
221.1
1935.1
157.5
397.2
690.7
16.9
445.9
7799.4
2100.5
1626.5
3943.4
359.3
1064.1
48.6
692.4
73.6
1309.3
139.8
1928.0
229.9
2721.7
173.4
1897.0
398.9
2888.6
537.2
1690.8
1601.4
13127.8
1109.5
6476.4
1274.4
1360.9
1584.4
1957.4
1229.1
1637.1
802.5
9845.9
3668.8
44.0
(35.5)
23.3
(613.9)
692.4
93.9
(12.5)
26.5
(159.4)
1309.3
152.0
44.5
44.3
102.8
1928.0
234.6
139.4
64.2
326.1
2721.7
175.5
151.9
14.5
325.9
1897.0
226.6
365.9
26.4
632.6
2888.6
41.5
394.5
17.9
434.4
1690.8
968.1
1048.3
217.1
1048.4
13127.8
443.6
912.3
58.8
1392.9
6476.4
30.44
55.57
81.29
116.59
161.29
269.94
1485.73
111.62
274.26
30.06
52.11
73.00
100.57
133.46
214.57
1102.61
94.47
216.84
(0.90)
(0.13)
0.06
0.14
0.21
0.28
0.35
0.09
0.27
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.02
0.07
0.07
(0.05)
(0.01)
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.13
0.23
0.08
0.14
0.01
0.06
0.10
0.14
0.17
0.21
0.26
0.15
0.21
Levels ($Trillions)
First Quintile First Quintile
(Income) (Expenditure)
Second
Quintile
(Income)
Second
Quintile Third Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fourth Quintile
(Expenditure) (Income) (Expenditure) (Income) (Expenditure)
81-90%
(Income)
81-90%
(Expenditure)
91-99%
(Income)
91-99%
(Expenditure)
Top 1%
(Income)
Top 1%
(Expenditure)
3.5
Average Incomes
($ Thousands)
Figure 2: Current (2009) Income and Expenditure Flows by “Household” and Household Mean Income
Levels
1200
3
1000
2.5
2
800
1.5
600
1
0.5
400
0
200
-0.5
-1
0
Wages (Incomes)
Transfers (Incomes)
Finance (Incomes)
Proprietor's Income and CCA (Incomes)
Consumption (Expenditure)
Contributions to Social Insurance (Expenditure)
Taxes (Expenditure)
Interest paid (Expenditure)
Saving (Expenditure)
Average Income (Post Tax)
Approximate fiscal position in “fiscal units” of account (U1 = $400 billion)
Note: The “middle class” comprises households
between the 41st and 90th percentiles
of the size distribution of income.
Goodwin Cycle
• Wage
• share
•
•
•
Stable share
Stable demand
Output gap
Long-run trends in the Barbosa-Taylor model based
on a panel data estimation of the (OECD )
Source: Kiefer and Rada (2012), work in progress
Sectoral net borrowing flows normalized by GDP and NBER
reference cycles.
0.12
0.12
0.07
0.07
0.02
0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.08
-0.08
Recessions
Household
Recessions
0.12
0.12
0.07
0.07
0.02
0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.08
-0.08
Recessions
Government
Recessions
Business
Foreign
Real US housing price index vs. real consumer debt
180
2006-I
160
Real Housing Prices (2000-I=100)
2007-I
2005-I
140
2008-I
2004-I
2003-I
2002-I
120
2001-I
2009-I
2000-I
1999-I
1990-I
1989-I
1988-I
1998-I
1987-I
1994-I 1996-I
1986-I
1985-I
80 1980-I
100
60
40
20
0
35
55
75
95
115
Real Debt
135
155
175
Possible greenhouse gas vs. capital dynamics
GHG/capital
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
S
B
Z
Stable capital
S
A
C
Stable GHG
Capital per capita
Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
Knight
Hayek
Keynes
Wittgenstein…
• Clausewitz, Rumsfeld, Jared Diamond
And thanks to….
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rudi von Arnim
Nelson Barbosa
Laura de Carvalho
Duncan Foley
Ben Mitra-Khan
Rishabh Kumar
Codrina Rada
Armon Rezai
Luca Zamparelli …..
and SCEPA (New School) and INET