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Introduction to Managerial Economics Rudolf Winter-Ebmer Dep. of Economics 1 Preliminaries Slides of presentation at my homepage on Tuesdays www.econ.jku.at/Winter You should read assigned text before the course exercises and examples will also be provided after the lectures 2 exams Watch out exact dates of lectures! – 120 minute lecture each week 2 home assignments will be sent out by e-mail 2 More preliminaries Teaching Assistant: Bernd Speta: [email protected] Phone: Ext. 8332 Office Hours: Tuesday, 17.00 - 18.00 Room: K 152D1 The teaching assistant shall be the first person to contact if you have problems understanding something and also for organizational issues. We have 15 minutes break each lecture to have coffee and talk … Textbook: Allen, Doherty, Weigelt and Mansfield “Managerial Economics, 6th edition 7th edition is ok as well E-help … quizzes, etc … www.wwnorton.com/college/econ/mec6/ 3 Norton Media Library W. Bruce Allen Neil A. Doherty Keith Weigelt Edwin Mansfield 4 Grading 2 exams, 48 points each, mostly MC questions 2 homeworks during the term: 6 points for each homework possible to complete the course, at least 6 homework-points are necessary! Total sum of points (including extra points) must be higher than 48 for a positive result 5 What is Managerial Economics? Applied micro-economics, but with a focus on decision making „What shall a manager do in this and that situation?“ Pricing decisions in different circumstances Market entry, innovation, auction theory Organization of the firm Personnel policy, how to motivate workers 6 Theory of the firm A theory indicating how a firm behaves and what its goals are Value of the firm should be maximal: The present value of the firm’s expected future cash flows … 7 Present value of expected future profits TR t − TC t ∑ t (1 + i) t =1 n where: TRt = the firm’s Total Rev. in year t TCt = the firm’s Total Cost in year t i = the interest rate and t goes from 1 (next year) to n (the last year in the planning horizon) 8 Economic profit concept Profit the firm owner makes over and above what their labor and capital employed in the business could earn elsewhere. In competitive industries profits are zero Why? What are competitive industries? Are most industries competitive industries? 9 Situations with positive profits Innovations Market entry is not (easily) possible Risk involved Industry is not competitive 10 Chapter 3 Demand Theory 11 The market demand curve shows the total quantity of the good that would be purchased at each price Market Demand for Personal Computers, 3200 Price 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 qua ntity 12 Other determinants of market demand besides the price Consumer tastes and preferences Consumer incomes Level of other prices Size of consumer population Advertising 13 Price elasticity of demand The percentage change in quantity demanded resulting from a 1 percent change in price. Usually a negative figure. ∂Q P η= ∂P Q (called eta) Important for pricing decisions. (notation: sometimes eta is written with a positive sign; take care!) 14 15 Calculating elasticities Point estimate: (demand function is known); calculated at a specific point of demand. Use statistic regression analysis (ch.5) ∂Q P η= ∂P Q Arc elasticity: uses average values of Q and P as reference points (if only a table is known) ∆Q ( P1 + P2 ) / 2 (Q2 − Q1 ) ( P1 + P2 ) / 2 η= = ∆P (Q1 + Q2 ) / 2 ( P2 − P1 ) (Q1 + Q2 ) / 2 16 Price elasticity of demand and gross revenues η < -1 ==> an inverse relationship between price changes η > -1 ==> a direct relationship between price changes η = -1 ==> no change in gross revenues as price changes. Important because of pricing decisions: is it useful to raise or lower prices? and gross revenues. and gross revenues. 17 Total revenue, marginal revenue and price elasticity Suppose P = a - bQ, (linear demand function) then TR = aQ - bQ2 MR = dTR/dQ = a - 2bQ Since η = (dQ/dP) . (P/Q) 1 (a − bQ ) η=− b Q 18 Total revenue, marginal revenue and price elasticity Price a η < −1 Demand and MR η = −1 η > −1 a/2b Dollars a/b Quantity Total Revenue Quantity 19 Marginal Revenue, price and price elasticity d ( PQ ) ..... note dQ MR = MR = P + Q dP dQ P = P ( Q ) .... why ? ⎡ Q dP ⎤ = = P ⎢1 + ⎥ P dQ ⎦ ⎣ ⎛ 1 ⎞ = P ⎜⎜ 1 + ⎟⎟ η ⎠ ⎝ If product is price elastic (η<-1, marginal revenue must be positive) Example: what is MR if price is $10 and price elasticity is -2? 10(1+1/(-2)) = $5. Isn‘t this strange? Price is $10, you sell one piece more, but your revenues rise only by $5 ??? What if product is very price elastic (η=-∞)? 20 Determinants of price elasticity of demand Elasticity is greater (in absolute values, i.e more elastic) when: there are more substitutes for the product. the product is a more important part of a consumer’s budget. the time period under consideration is greater. 21 Puzzle A soccer promoter must allocate 40,000 seats in the stadium among the supporters of the two competing teams, the Wolverton Gladabouts and Manteca United. This promoter can set different prices for seating in the Wolverton and Manteca sections. If she sells W seats to Wolverton supporters, she will receive £20-W/2000 for each, while she can get £10 per ticket from Manteca supporters, regardless of the number of tickets she sells to them. Her objective is to allocate the 40,000 seats she has available to maximize her gate receipts. A fried suggests that an equal allocation of 20,000 seats to each side is best, since this will mean that the price of each ticket is the same, £10; at any other division, she would be making more per ticket on one team than on the other. Why is this friend wrong? 22 Price Elasticity versus Marginal Return Price elasticity means … how strongly do consumers react (by buying less) if you raise your price You really should know this figure for your products Price elasticity is defined as the reaction of quantity on price Marginal return is defined as the reaction of money on quantities sold How do revenues increase if you sell one more unit MR = Marginal Revenue = Marginal Return 23 Price setting: a simple rule Do not set price so low that demand is price-inelastic (η>-1): Marg. Revenue is negative, i.e. by raising price, total revenue will increase and (!) costs will decrease. MC = MR = P (1 + 1 η ⎛ 1 ⇒ P = MC ⎜⎜ ⎝ 1 + 1 /η ) ... pricing rule ⎞ ⎟⎟ .... optimal ⎠ price ==> optimal price depends upon MC and price elasticity ==> The higher (the absolute value of) price elasticity, the lower the optimal price • Why is this so? In what market are you in? 24 25 26 27 Income elasticity The percentage change in quantity demanded resulting from a 1 percent change in consumer income (I) ∂Q I ηI = ∂I Q 28 Table 3.6 Income Elasticity of Demand, Selected Commodities, United States Commodity Income elasticity of demand Alcohol Housing, owner-occupied Furniture Dental services Restaurant meals Shoes Medical insurance Gasoline and oil Butter Coffee Margarine Flour 1.54 1.49 1.48 1.42 1.40 1.10 0.92 0.48 0.42 0 -0.20 -0.36 Source: H. Houthakker and L. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the United States 29 Cross price elasticity • The percentage change in quantity demanded of good X resulting from a 1 percent change in the price of good Y η X ,Y δ Q X PY = δ PY QX • How does demand for your product react to other companies’ price hikes? • How does demand for your products 2-n react to price changes of your product 1? 30 31 Use elasticities for market forecasts Price elasticity: what will happen to my demand if I change the price? ==> be careful, if elasticity of the whole industry or the specific firm is concerned Income elasticity: given a forecast of GDP-growth is available, what is the growth prospect of my product? ==> you may want to target specific income groups 32 Advertising elasticity • The percentage change in quantity demanded resulting from a 1 percent change in advertising expenditure ∂Q A ηA = ∂A Q • Is it worth to spend more on advertising? 33 34