The True Cost of Poor Lubrication Jason Kopschinsky, CMRP Director of Reliability Services Des-Case Corporation Des-Case Confidential 1 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Quiz Time • How important is precision lubrication to overall equipment reliability? 99.1% Source: Machinery Lubrication Reader Survey March, 2011 (n: 347) © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Des-Case Confidential 2 Quiz Time • At your plant, have you achieved a level of lubrication that you would consider close to best practice? Source: Machinery Lubrication Reader Survey March, 2011 (n: 347) © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Des-Case Confidential 3 Roadblocks to Precision Lubrication Problem Solution Lack of knowledge or understanding of what’s possible External Support & Engineered products/solutions & Training Too busy putting out fires to develop an action plan Project Management Support Lack of management buy-in to provide funding Develop a Business Case Des-Case Confidential 4 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. The Role of Lubrication in Machine Reliability Less than 0.5% of a plant’s maintenance budget is spent purchasing lubricants, but the downstream effects of poor lubrication can impact as much as 30% of a plant’s total maintenance costs each year. ExxonMobil Case Study Des-Case Confidential 5 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. What Causes Machines to Fail? Loss of Usefulness 70% of loss of machine life is due to loss of surface material Ref: MIT, E. Rabinowicz © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Des-Case Confidential 6 What Causes Surface Degradation? Surface Degradation Ref: MIT, E. Rabinowicz © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Des-Case Confidential 7 What Causes Machines to Wear? Primary Wear Mechanisms 82% of mechanical wear is caused by particle contamination Ref: NRCC, STLE © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Des-Case Confidential 8 How Big is a Micron? 0.001” = 25.4 microns 1” = 25,400 microns Human Hair Des-Case Confidential 9 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. How Much Does it Take to Contaminate? One tsp of dirt in a 55 gal drum yields a particle count of 19/17/14. That means there are about 1 billion particles in the drum which are greater than 4 microns in diameter. Des-Case Confidential 10 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. How Clean is New Oil? With few exceptions, new oil is never clean enough for common applications. New oil must be filtered before installation to provide any reasonable level of cleanliness. New Oil is Dirty!!! Des-Case Confidential 11 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Particle Effects on Component Life Des-Case Confidential 12 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Progression of a Failure P-F Curve Failure starts Precision PdM (high frequency vibration analysis , oil analysis) Wear debris analysis 100% Vibration analysis Audible noise/hot to touch 0% Operating Hours Des-Case Confidential 14 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Ancillary damage Run To Fail Predictive Preventive Looseness Proactive % remaining life Thermography Catastrophic failure Time Based PM’s “When evaluated on a benefit/cost basis, approximately 50% of PM tasks have essentially no value.” John S. Mitchell Time Based Time Based Oil Drains Replacements Des-Case Confidential 15 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Over Lubrication Time Based Replacements • • • 30 identical 6309 deep groove ball bearings Run to failure on test bench Standard test procedures The wide variation in bearing life precludes the use of any effective time-based maintenance strategy. Ref: NASA RCM Guide © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Des-Case Confidential 16 Contamination Control Strategy Set Targets Take Action 3 Des-Case Confidential 17 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Measure Results Case Study – Steel Mill Hydraulics Principle strategy: 1. Set targets 2. Offline filtration & improved Breathers 3. Good oil analysis Results: 96% drop in hydraulic failures 80% drop in oil consumption Hydraulic Failures 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 Des-Case Confidential 18 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Automotive Press Case Study 93%-97% reduction in particle contamination Particle Concentration (Particles/mL) =/> 4 micron 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1 2 3 4 Sample Number Des-Case Confidential 19 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. 5 6 7 Automotive Press Case Study Downtime Downtime (Minutes) 54% reduction in downtime 3 year average 2012 YTD A Line 6 B Line 7 C Line 8 D Line 9 Des-Case Confidential 20 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. E Line 10 Deploying Best in Class Lubrication – Minimizing the Financial Impact Des-Case Confidential 21 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Lubrication Transformation – Business Case Analysis SM Managers speak in dollars and cents, not beta ratios and microns. We need to learn the language of management. Managers really don’t care about lubrication. They care about the financial impact of poor lubrication. Key Objectives – Financial Analysis: Work with plant maintenance management to estimate the amount lost each year due to imprecise lubrication Develop an action plan to help close the gap on the most common reasons for poor lubrication Estimate the upfront and ongoing costs to close the gaps Calculate the 5-year Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for improvements Note: Most companies have a hurdle rate of 15-30% IRR for project approval Des-Case Confidential 22 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Lubrication Assessment – Business Case Analysis How much do you typically spend annually on ALL maintenance work (mechanical, electrical etc.)? Include in your estimate both material and labor costs for both planned (scheduled) and unplanned (repair) work. In a typical year, how much do you lose due to unscheduled downtime, production slow downs or off spec production? If you cannot provide a reasonable estimate, enter $0 and proceed to complete the assessment without accounting for production losses. Of your total annual maintenance costs entered in question 1, what percentage can be attributed to either scheduled rebuild/replacement or emergent, unscheduled repairs? Exclude any costs associated with routine inspections or routine predictive maintenance activities. What percentage of scheduled or unscheduled repair work is performed on rotating or reciprocating equipment, as opposed to facilities maintenance, electrical equipment etc.? Of the scheduled or unscheduled repair tasks performed on rotating or reciprocating equipment (Question 4), in your estimation, what percentage are due to poor lubrication (wrong lubricant, under or over lubrication, contaminated oil etc.)? By implementing a well defined lubrication improvement program, what percentage of the lubrication problems entered in question 5 could have been avoided? Des-Case Confidential 23 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Low Case Estimate Likely Case Estimate High Case Estimate $8.5MM $9MM $10MM Maintenance Manager $0 $0 $0 Production Manager 75% 80% 80% Maintenance Planner 45% 50% 70% Millwright/Mechanic 40% 45% 50% Mechanic/Lube Tech 30% 35% 40% All Lubrication Assessment – Business Case Analysis Response Calculated value Choose low, medium or high case estimate Annual maintenance costs Downtime losses Scheduled PM and Repair costs Amount spent on rotating/reciprocating equipment Percentage of lubrication related problems Percentage of lubrication problems that can be eliminated Estimated Annual Losses Due to Poor Lubrication Addressable Losses Due to Poor Lubrication Des-Case Confidential 24 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. likely case $9,000,000 $0 80% $9,000,000 $0 $7,200,000 50% $3,600,000 45% $1,620,000 35% $567,000 likely case $1,620,000 likely case $567,000 Lubrication Transformation™ – Macro Business Case Des-Case Confidential 25 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Foundry Case Study | Dust Collector Bearings • • • 26 Dust Collector Units 250hp motors greased every 90 days 6” fan bearings greased every two weeks Current Practice • 16.65 fl.oz. of grease per motor bearing / 90 days • 3.33 fl.oz. of grease per fan bearing / 14 days Assumptions • Cost of grease = $0.4/oz • Cost of labor = $25/hr Calculated Practice • 1.35 fl.oz. of grease per motor bearing / 90 days • 5.48 fl.oz. of grease per fan bearing / 30 days • Time per shot = 4 seconds Conclusions • Using the calculated relubrication volumes and frequencies on 26 dust collectors, there would be a savings of $1747.64 per year which has a 5 year NPV of $5858.00. In addition, the amount of time that could be redirected to value added tasks is almost 40 hours per year. • The above calculations do not account for travel time or damage to the bearing from over-lubrication or using the wrong lubricant reducing the useful life of the bearings. • The grease selection for the fan bearings was also incorrect. A grease with a lower base oil viscosity should be selected. Des-Case Confidential 26 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Foundry Case Study | Bearings Statistics • More than 50% of electric motor failures are bearing related. • An estimated 95% of all bearing failures are premature. • 58% of bearing failures are due to poor lubrication, contamination, over-lubrication or wrong lubricant selection. Assumptions • $65,796.50 total electric motor purchases and rebuilds in 2011. • $1,496,623 total bearing purchases in 2011 (not including electric motor bearings) Conclusions Based on Statistics • $65,796.50 x 50% x 58% = $19,080.99 failures likely due to poor lubrication, contamination, overlubrication or wrong lubricant selection in 2011. • $1,496,623 x 58% = $868,041 in avoidable lubrication failures total bearing purchases in 2011 (not including electric motor bearings) Des-Case Confidential 27 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Foundry Case Study – Closing the Gap GAP = Benefits - Total Upfront Program Costs = ($1747.64 + $19,080.99 + $868,041) - $344,750 = $924,258.49 - $344,750 = $544,119.63 Des-Case Confidential 28 © 2012 Des-Case Corp. Questions? Putting best practices into practice… Jason Kopschinsky, CMRP Director of Reliability Services Des-Case Corporation 905.999.0076 [email protected] Des-Case Confidential 29 © 2012 Des-Case Corp.