MARGINAL UTILITY: SHORT-CUT IN EQUILIBRIUM AND DISEQUILIBRIUM ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Auke R. Leen Wageningen Agricultural University Department of General Economics P.O. Box 8130 6700 EW Wageningen The Netherlands Abstract, JEL classification code: D11 The paper tries to formulate and formalize the abbreviating role of marginal utility in consumer calculations. The abbreviation problem comes to the fore, in fact it is the answer to it, if one tries to find the real-world consumer's counterpart to the process of solving a Langrangian. The problem how to abbreviate economic calculations was one of the core problems for the older Austrians. A problem overlooked by the English and Swiss co-inventors of marginalism, because of the mathematical mould of their theories. Within a household production framework, I use an intertemporal model of consumer choice. Three groups of consumers are considered, first, emigrants on arrival in a foreign country and people who get married and start a family, second, the so-called trendy consumers, and third, the well-established consumers of traditional theory. For the first group the abbreviating role of marginal utility as a short-cut in calculations is modelled as a beneficial rational addiction. For the second group it is modelled as a myopic or harmful rational addiction. For the third group it acts as a watch-dog. A special interest is taken in the producer's problem: Who are most susceptible to the advertizing of new goods? The theory predicts that emigrants and just-married couples save more and buy relatively more new goods, though at a decreasing rate, than more established people do. Trendy consumers, on the other hand, in buying new goods save less than the other groups do. I. Introduction Suppose the present-day economist's model of consumer choice is not only a formal apparatus that helps thinking but also reflects the maximization process of the consumer in reality. Then, what wriggles most? It is neither the beginning nor the end. We all intuitively accept the start: a budget constraint and a set of preferences (including Gossen's first law of decreasing marginal utility), and the result: the optimal allocation of goods (Gossen's second law of equi-marginality). Didn't economists in the early phases of the history of economic analysis, think that Gossen's first law signified a real-world psychological phenomenon? No, what comes to the fore as highly unrealistic is the maximization process that lies in between both Gossen's laws. Whatever it is the consumer does, it certainly is not maximizing a Lagrangian function. From a theoretical point of view calculations have to be very labor and time consuming. To compute the marginal utilities, time and again, the consumer has, first, to state the needs which market goods and services can satisfy, and second, to compare the utilities of all the needs with all the units of 1 the goods he has at his disposal. A problem that becomes even more complex if we use a household production function. For then he has to state not only the needs to be fulfilled by the goods themselves but also by their intermediate products. The problem how to abbreviate economic calculation was one of the core problems for the older Austrians. A problem overlooked by the English and Swiss co-inventors of marginalism, because of the mathematical mould of their theories. In Austrian economics marginal utility is not only the solution to a problem, but also gives rise to a new problem. Marginalism, the solution to the well-known value paradox, poses the problem of finding an overall goods allocation, with its astonishing amount of individual comparisons. The comparisons are necessary to find the values of the different goods and the optimal goods allocation. In the classical objective value theory the calculation problem had no place in the core of economics and could be neglected by the theoretical economists. With subjective use value, however, this changed. Value was no longer given from the outside, but had to be calculated by man itself. The problem further aggravated with the transition from a cardinal to an ordinal utility concept: the calculation problem changed from a quantitative to an even more difficult to handle qualitative one. In this paper, first, the logical development of abbreviation in real-world consumer calculations is given: the idea of the older Austrians that economic theory has to be in congruence with reality. Abbreviation is related to the role of marginal utility in equilibrium situations and disequilibrium processes. Second, I give a first formalization of abbreviation in an intertemporal model of consumer choice. Saving and consumption patterns are predicted for different groups of consumers. II. Short-cuts in equilibrium According to Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk (1886, pp. 74-77), one of the founding fathers of Austrianism, experience shows that calculations do not give us much trouble. Why? First, we do have a lot of practice in making the calculations. We are great virtuosi in our value calculations. Calculations, after all, that from a cost-benefit point of view do not have to be very precise. We do not have to be more exact than is worthwhile. Second, we have all sorts of short-cuts and rules of thumb, e.g., our memory, things we have learned from other people, and our everyday routines. All these reliefs can be used so long as our situation does not drastically change. This is practically the case for most of the people most of the time. In his summarizing article on marginal utility, Paul Rosenstein-Rodan ([1927],1960) works out the conditions that permit an abbreviation of the allocation calculations. Though observation shows that the majority of the needs usually remain constant, and the same holds for the supply of productive resources (Rosenstein-Rodan, 1960, p. 84), we can ask: How do we find the initial equilibrium situation that holds on in the first place, and is of relevance if nothing changes? According to Rosenstein-Rodan, we cannot create this situation uno actu, it is the result of a historical process of trial and error. If, however, we are in an equilibrium situation, the attained marginal utilities fulfil their function as a short-cut without there simply could be no rational economic conduct. The marginal utilities are the sine qua non for any real- 2 world economic calculations. "The utilities of the new uses which are contemplated are compared with past marginal utilities in these uses; if they are larger, the new uses are expedient, if smaller, the new uses are not expedient. The marginal utility in different need classes (kinds of uses) thus fulfills a watchdog function with respect to consumption" (Rosenstein-Rodan, 1960, p. 85). For Rosenstein-Rodan the essential function of marginal utility is to abbreviate economic calculations. To apply the abbreviating procedure we need: (1) an initial equilibrium situation; and (2) relative constancy of needs and ends. The complementarity of utilities seems to pose a problem. It suggests the necessity of a complete revision of the whole economic plan, even with a relatively small change in the data. One is forced to go through all calculations again each time a situation changes. This, however, is not the case. For the layers of goods allocation under discussion are the marginal ones; complementarity is the lowest and the utilities are the smallest. Small changes in the data have no great repercussions elsewhere in the system. III. Short-cuts in disequilibrium Leo Schönfeld-Illy, an Austrian of the third generation, made an important extension to these thoughts. In two of his books (1924,1948), he investigates the consumer's abbreviation problem. For SchönfeldIlly marginal utility as an instrument of abbreviation is not only used in equilibrium situations but also in disequilibrium processes. Abbreviation is no longer associated with marginal changes in an equilibrium allocation, but with abrupt, great changes in means and ends. A theory that describes small changes in equilibrium only, and not the origination of the equilibrium itself, is highly unsatisfying. It would be just as unsatisfying as a theory that could explain price changes only, but not their origination. His favorite examples of budget allocation are students who receive their first income after graduation, people who marry and start a family, and emigrants on arrival in a foreign and strange country (Schönfeld-Illy, 1948, pp. 125-126 and p. 321). Schönfeld-Illy develops his interpretation of marginal utility as an instrument of abbreviation from an inconsistency in Friedrich von Wieser's thought. Wieser, the brother in law of Böhm-Bawerk, takes the definition of marginal utility from the last stage of calculation. "The measure of marginal utility is got from the least useful of the most important uses ... conditional on the highest use of the supply and the most careful inquiry of the needs" (Schönfeld-Illy, 1924, p. 75). On the other hand, he draws the description of the function of marginal utility from the situation from which calculation starts. "All uses that stand below are forbidden ... all uses that stand above or are equal are permitted" (o.c., p. 75). Schönfeld-Illy wonders whether the last stage of calculation contains all the things that have been used during the actual calculations. Isn't a definition based on the last stage of calculation too narrow? The correct definition, according to Schönfeld-Illy, of marginal utility consistent with its function is: For a particular consumer the marginal utility of a stock of goods is the utility of the economic smallest part of the stock. The economic smallest part lies at the considered margin of use of the stock. It is of relevance 3 to the whole stock regarding the plans one has for using it. Marginal utility is an instrument in a process of trial and error. The consumers are discovering what their optimal consumption pattern looks like. (Schönfeld-Illy, 1948, p. 67 and p. 126). In other words, marginal utility fulfills a special role. It acts no longer primarily as a watch-dog which precludes all utility under it and sustains all utility above it. Its primary function is its economic relevance: the relevance of the economic use at a margin for a whole. A consumer rarely deals with small pieces, he calculates mostly with stocks of goods which contain many different intensities of utility. The price a consumer is willing to pay for a good at the margin of a certain stock of goods, based on its marginal utility, has an economic relevance for all other units of the stock of goods. "A fortiore: for the utility of these other units is higher than the utility of the marginal unit and therefore the price paid for the other units certainly must be justified" (Schönfeld-Illy, 1948, p. 60). The cumulative validity of the subjective demand price makes it possible to shorten the calculation process: we do not have to state and compare the other utilities anymore. Consequently, Schönfeld-Illy and Rosenstein-Rodan give a different interpretation of Wieser's statement that the entire surplus utility can be neglected. For Rosenstein-Rodan the surplus utilities are the utilities above the equilibrium marginal utilities (Rosenstein-Rodan, 1960, p. 85). For Schönfeld-Illy the surplus utilities are the utilities above the marginal utilities of certain quantities of goods in a disequilibrium situation (Schönfeld-Illy, 1948, p. 65). There is also a change in character of the proof of the abbreviation procedure. For Rosenstein-Rodan the possibility of abbreviation is a direct result of certain empirical, psychological facts: the unchanging world around and within us. For Schönfeld-Illy, on the contrary, the possibility of abbreviation is a direct result of Gossen's first law of decreasing marginal utility. 4 IV. A first model of consumer abbreviation To capture the difference between the abbreviating role of marginal utility in equilibrium and disequilibrium, I look at the following groups of consumers. The first group are consumers in disequilibrium by choice or by necessity. Examples of the former group are the so-called trendy consumers and examples of the latter are emigrants on arrival in a foreign country, and people who marry and start a family. These consumers are discovering what their optimal allocation pattern looks like. For them the primary role of marginal utility is its economic relevance. The second group are the familiar consumers from the traditional theory of consumer choice. They represent the established consumers, who are in equilibrium, and for whom marginal utility acts as a watch-dog. In a simple intertemporal model of consumer choice a household maximizes the utility function (1) U = U ( Z t , Z t+1 ,..., Z t+n ), where Zt stands for the composite commodity from which utility is directly obtained in period t. The commodities are produced in a household production function (2) Z t = Z ( X t , T t , S t ), with a composite market good, Xt , the consumer's time input, Tt , and the consumer's human capital specific to calculation skill, St . All other inputs are ignored. I assume that ∂ Zt ∂ ∂ >0 , Zt >0 , Zt >0 , ∂ Xt ∂Tt ∂ St and also that 2 ∂ Zt >0 . ∂T t ∂ St To analyze the role of marginal utility as a short-cut, a simple investment function is adopted: (3) S t = S ( Z t -1 , Z t -2 ,..., E t ) . St is produced through "learning by doing." It accumulates the effects of earlier commodity allocation. Et measures the effect of 5 education and other human capital on calculation, i.e. abbreviation skills. I assume that 2 ∂ St ∂S ∂ St > 0, for all v in (3), t > 0, and >0 . ∂ Z t -v ∂ Et ∂ Z t -v ∂ E t I model the abbreviating role of marginal utility as a household production function models rational habit formation (cf. Stigler and Becker 1977; Becker and Murphy 1988; Chaloupka 1991). The by now familiar results are used and re-interpreted as follows. The ratios of the marginal utilities and the shadow prices determine the optimal allocation of consumption over time ∂U M U zt π ∂ (4) = Z t = zt . ∂U M U zt+n π zt+n ∂ Z t +n The term π T zt 8is the full price of commodity Zt and consist of two parts: the money price of the composite commodity, w , MPT zt and the value of future time inputs from the effect of the production of Zt on subsequent S , ∂ Z t+i ∂ Z t+i dS zt+i 1 . - w ∑ / . , ∂ T zt+i dZ t (1+ r )i i=1 ∂ S zt+i n -t where w is the wage rate, r the interest rate, and n the length of life. To be simplified to (5) π Z t = w MPT zt - At . V. Different saving and consumption patterns What predictions can be made for the consumption and saving patterns of the different groups of consumers? For well-established consumers, the ones we know from traditional economic theory, the last term of equation (5), At , is zero. The price becomes the familiar marginal cost formula. This group of consumers is in equilibrium by definition: they move from one equilibrium to another and make only 6 marginal comparisons in their calculations. From an abbreviation point of view the primary function of marginal utility is its watch-dog function, its economic relevance is secondary. To develop an abbreviation skill is neither intended nor necessary: they have it already. For consumers who are in disequilibrium by neccessity, e.g., our emigrants, At is positive. This means the relative price of consumption now declines versus the price of consumption in the future. Present consumption of commodities tends to rise over time. In other words, the marginal utility of time allocated to figuring out the present composite commodity is increased by the growth of the stock of consumption capital. If the demand curve is sufficiently elastic, the consumption of goods will rise too and savings decline. The abbreviating role of marginal utility as a short cut in calculations results in consumption as a beneficial addiction. Those who are in disequilibrium by choice, our trendy-consumers, do not see their allocation process as a positive investment. On the contrary, after the discovery of a new consumption pattern the human capital specific to abbreviation loses its value. Calculation is shortsighted, myopic, or farsighted. In the first case At is zero, just as with the well-established consumers. Only this time, one is myopic, or shortsighted, because one does not want to be farsighted. While with the well-established consumers one is shortsighted because one does not need to be farsighted. In the last case abbreviation is a harmful habit. Abbreviation breeds a habit which one does not want to have. It costs time and energy to get rid of it. At is negative. For the myopic trendy consumer w 12is the money price of the composite MPT zt commodity; the relative price of consumption now and in the future does not change. For the trendy consumer who sees the abbreviation skill as a negative habit the value of saving in future inputs is negative. The shadow price rises, it is better to consume now than in the future. With an inelastic demand curve, however, the consumption of goods doesn't fall in the future. An inelastic demand curve seems a realistic assumption: trends can only be shown by conspicuous consumption. The abbreviating role of marginal utility as a short cut in calculations results in consumption as a harmful rational addiction. Now, let me look at the producer's problem: Who are the potential buyers of new goods? Who are the most susceptible to the advertising of new goods? On the one hand, advertizing lowers the search costs for all groups of consumers, on the other hand, it makes human capital obsolete. The influence of advertizing on human capital can be brought in the investment function by taking into account a depreciation rate, δ, of human capital specific to abbreviation, St , (6) S t = S ( Z t -1 , Z t -2 ,..., E t , δ ) . For the well-established consumer who has the biggest investment in human capital δ is strongly negative. Abbreviation skill is of the greatest importance: without it he cannot exist. For consumers who are in disequilibrium by necessity, though δ is still negative, the odds at stake are much lower. Our 7 emigrants and young couples are still discovering, by trial and error, their optimal consumption pattern. For trendy consumers, who are in disequilibrium by choice, the fact that human capital specific to abbreviation becomes obsolete is either of no concern, if he is shortsighted, or, in the case of abbreviation as a negative addictive good, a positive fact. δ is zero for the myopic trendy consumer and positive for the farsighted trendy consumer. Because the relative prices change for all groups, saving and consumption patterns will change. Well-established consumers buy the least new goods, shortsighted trendy consumers buy more, and farsighted trendy consumers with a positive depreciation rate buy the most new goods. As time goes by, emigrants and just married couples buy less new goods. To conclude: the way I handled abbreviation may strike some readers as rather old-fashioned at its best or completely wrong at its worst. Is not one of the blessings of modern economic theory that it is not expected to be a description of reality? Shouldn't one look for the implications for observable behavior of utility-maximizing theory? (Stigler, 1965, p.153). I believe, however, that the paper proves that there is still something to be gained from looking at the early phases of the development of utility theory. It gives us just what we want: testable predictions. Literature Becker, Gary S., and Murphy, Kevin M. 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