Energy system modelling using the ETI ESME model

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Energy system modelling using the ETI ESME
model
Chris Heaton
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
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upon the latest
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Energy on
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Energy Technologies Institute (ETI)
Addressing the
challenges of climate
change and low carbon
energy
Improving energy
usage, efficiency, supply
and generation
Demonstrating
systems and
technologies
Developing knowledge,
skills and supply-chains
Informing development
of policy, regulation and
standards
Enabling deployment
of affordable, secure,
low carbon energy
systems
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
£152m of major projects underway
> £175m of further projects in development
CCS, DE, offshore wind, energy storage, smart systems,
transport
UK ESME &Skills
Development
Bio Energy
Transport
Carbon Capture
and Storage
Energy Storage
and Distribution
Buildings
Distributed Energy
Marine
Organisations working on ETI projects
Universitie
s and
Research
Institutes
Universities and
Research
Institutes
SMEs
ETI
Members
Large
Corporate
s
ETI Members
Offshore Wind
£152m of projects
announced
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ETI - Addressing 2020 and 2050
energy challenges by...
Setting strategic direction
World-class ETI capability in
energy system modelling
and strategic analysis
Creating commercial confidence
Viable commercial operation
ETI Delivery of engineering
demonstrations of innovative
low carbon energy systems
Focused on the integrated UK energy
system – power, heat, transport and
associated infrastructure
Which energy technologies do
we need and when?
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Innovative technologies, sub-systems and
information
Implied Modelling Challenge for ETI
• An evidence-based assessment of project areas for ETI
activity
– Combined with assessments of ETI “additionality” and member
interest/capability
• A platform for integrating ETI data, analysis and outputs from
early projects
• ‘Whole energy system’ scope
• ‘Engineering’ system approach
• Account for uncertainty out to 2050
• ETI needs a live tool to test scenarios, new information etc.
• Reproducible and traceable results
5
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
Subject to notes on page 1
Energy System Modelling
Environment
• A national energy system design
tool
• Distinctive modelling approach
– Least cost optimisation (policy
neutral)
– Focus on the “2050 destination” and
backcasting
– Probabilistic treatment of uncertainties
– Includes spatial & temporal factors
• Informed by ETI
members/advisors
• Internationally peer reviewed
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ESME Modelling Approach
• Sufficient detail to understand
“system engineering” challenges
– Deployment & utilisation of >150
technologies
– Spatial and temporal resolution
sufficient for system engineering
– Pathway and supply chain
constraints to 2050
• Monte Carlo approach taken for
uncertain parameters
– Technology costs / efficiencies
– Fuel prices
– ...
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ESME: addressing the energy
trilemma
Least cost optimisation
Affordability Technology development
...
Capacity reserve margin
Fuel price ranges
...
Security
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
CO2 emissions reduction
Sustainability Biomass lifecycle
...
Typical ESME Outputs
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ESME is used to inform and answer
questions
for example...
•
What might be ‘no regret’ technology choices and pathways to 2050?
•
What is the total system cost of meeting the energy targets?
•
What are the opportunity costs of individual technologies?
•
What are the key constraints e.g. resources, supply constraints?
•
How might uncertainty in resource prices and availability influence
technology choices?
•
Where should new generating capacity optimally be located?
•
How might policies and consumer choices influence technology
development?
•
How might accelerating the development of a technology impact the
solution?
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Using ‘opportunity cost’ to measure
role of a technology in the system
Opportunity cost of technology X is defined by two alternative scenarios:
A.
B.
The least-cost energy system design using standard assumptions
The least-cost energy system design if technology X unavailable
Opportunity cost = Total Cost (B) –Total Cost (A)
= 0 if technology X is not present in the reference case (System A)
> 0 if technology X is present in System A. Magnitude depends in
the relationship between System A and System B: ‘substitution’ or
‘reconfiguration’
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
CO2 emissions trajectory – end use
sectors bear unequal burdens, led by
the power sector
CO2 Emissions Trajectory (Mean)
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
2050 abatement costs are affordable (0.7%
GDP) with biomass and CCS as key levers
£2010(Mean)/year
v2.0
Total system cost
£294bn
Abatement cost
£26bn
Average cost
£51/tCO2
Marginal cost
£360/tCO2
No biomass
+£44bn
No CCS
+£42bn
No nuclear
+£4bn
*Assumes current technology cost/performance
13
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
Subject to notes on page 1
System design choices have a large influence
on the total cost level, but that’s not all
£2010(Mean)/year
v2.0
Total system cost
£294bn
Abatement cost
£26bn
Average cost
£51/tCO2
Marginal cost
£360/tCO2
No biomass
+£44bn
No CCS
+£42bn
No nuclear
+£4bn
No tech devt*
+£106bn
The performance and the cost of the
energy technologies as deployed are
important too.
Expected efficiency improvements and
cost reductions from 2010 to 2050 in
low-carbon technologies have a big
effect on cost.
This isn’t surprising, as many low-carbon
technologies are immature, but
delivering the improvements is key.
*Assumes current technology
cost/performance
14
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
Subject to notes on page 1
2050 abatement costs are largely determined
by investments in conversion plant and LCVs
2050 Abatement Cost Breakdown (Mean)
£2010
bn/yr
20
15
10
5
0
Resources (Fuel)
Infrasructure
Conversion
Vehicles
Building Retrofit
Microgeneration
Building Stock
-10
Industry Sector
-5
Total Abatement Cost £26bn/yr
(85% CO2 reduction)
15
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
Subject to notes on page 1
Technology deployment scenarios – CCS
appears a mainstay; offshore wind a critical
hedge
CCS
8-22GW CCS and 0-8GW
offshore wind is deployed in
the reference (80%
confidence)
100%
Probability
of
deploying
less than
(x) GW in
2050
0%
0
30
60
GW
Offshore Wind
100%
Without UK biomass, CCS
and offshore wind exceed
20GW
Without nuclear, up to 48GW
of CCS may be required
Probability
of
deploying
less than
(x) GW in
2050
0%
Legend
0
30
60
GW
Reference Case
No nuclear
No biomass
No CCS
16
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
Subject to notes on page 1
Priority issues for the UK
in an uncertain world...
Abatement costs
UK 2050 target appears affordable with intelligent energy system design and targeted
investments in innovation and technology development
Efficiency measures (‘Smart’)
waste heat recovery, building insulation, and efficient
vehicles make a contribution under all emission
reduction scenarios
ETI targeting through new £100m ‘Smart’ programme
focusing on heat and energy distribution plus, £30m
HDV efficiency programme
Nuclear
mature technology and appears economic under most
emission reduction scenarios - primarily an issue of
deployment (planning / licensing, supply-chain, finance
etc)
Cost impacts post-Fukushima need clarification –
international approach needed. ETI supporting R+D
roadmapping to set long-term priorities
CCS
A key technology lever given potential wide application
in power, hydrogen and SNG (gas) production, and in
industry sector
ETI investing in separation, storage and system design
– for coal, gas and biomass
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Bioenergy
major potential for negative emissions via CCS and might
include a range of conversion routes – H2, SNG, process
heat
ETI investing in science, logistics and value models ahead
of a potential bio+ccs demonstrator plus £13m+ Energy
from Waste demonstrator
Offshore Wind
the marginal power technology and an important hedging
option
ETI developing over £35m of investments in next
generation, low cost, deepwater platform and turbine
technology demonstrations
Gas
potentially a material role as a 2050 destination fuel
including power, space heating, transport and process heat
applications, also a significant opportunity for energy
storage, potentially including hydrogen as an important
energy vector providing system flexibility (CCS and
storage) and light vehicle transport applications
ETI evaluating investment options in transport , storage
and CCS
ETI Members are all using ESME and
exploring ways to leverage further
• Underpinning business strategy and technology development
choices
• Informing UK Govt policy
–
–
–
–
Renewable Energy Review
Technology Investment Needs Assessments
The Carbon Plan
Bioenergy Strategy
• Members have requested ETI to scope the development of an EU
version of ESME
• Individual Members are developing own versions for specific
countries of interest
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
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©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
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