LAKE BASIN DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY Proposal for the Feasibility Study of Webuye Falls Hydropower Project. MAY 2008 1.0 Introduction Lake Basin Development Authority was established under the Act of Parliament as a statutory organization in 1979 for promoting regional development and domestic resources for equitable development. The authority undertakes overall planning, co-ordination and implementation of development projects and programmes in the region. Among the development options that have been proposed include hydropower harnessing from identified sites within the jurisdiction of the authority. Nzoia River falls within the jurisdiction of Lake Basin Development Authority and flows within a valley exhibiting fairly gentle slopes, an exception to this being where the river descends the Nandi Escarpment so forming the Webuye falls. Though many possible dam sites exist, the available head for generation of hydroelectric power is generally limited to that provided by the dams themselves. The individual potential of hydroelectric project at Webuye Falls is examined within this proposal for a feasibility study. The study encompasses the possibility of construction of intake structure, embankment, tunnel, spillway, and surge chamber, diversion and outlet works, powerhouse and switchgear, access road and railway diversion 2.0 Problem statement Even though the Lake Basin region is endowed with abundant water resources with potential sites for hydropower generation, the region still suffers from inadequate power supply from the national grid, which would otherwise promote accelerated industrial development especially in rural areas. There have been proposals for small-scale industries e.g. proposed pineapple-processing plants but the development of such can be accelerated with an increased pace of rural electrification programme.The rural population would also benefit from improved lighting in homes. The rate of destruction of forests would also reduce, as electrical energy would be available for use in small-scale industries in the rural areas. Currently, Kenya’s energy production and consumption are well below the levels needed to support not only a satisfactory standard of living but also the country’s vision of industrialized economy by the year 2030. In addition, frequent droughts experienced from major hydropower generation reservoirs have meant power rationing so as to meet the high demand. The development of other power services will therefore be an important element of the regional development policy as it will stimulate industrial and agricultural development as well as promote general welfare in the rural areas. 3.0 Background Information Energy Sector Kenya’s energy sector is largely dominated by imported petroleum for modern sector and wood fuel for rural communities. The current domestic demand for petroleum fuels account for 25% of the total import bill. In terms energy supply, wood fuel provides about 68% of the total energy requirements, petroleum energy 20%, electricity 10% and other alternative sources account for 2%. The above statistics indicates that Kenya’s current electricity generation capacity is inadequate, with demand regularly exceeding supply during peak periods. This normally leads to rationing which obviously affects the performance of the economy. This reflects the requirements for developing other power services to deliver adequate supplies to the large urban centres, fast growing towns and small urban centres in rural areas. With increased pace of modernization and limited supply of electrical energy, it’s obvious that Kenya’s electricity generation capacity will be inadequate with demand regularly exceeding supply during peak periods. 4.0 Literature Review Previously in 1985, C Lotti and Associates completed and submitted a report on the ‘Lake Basin River Regulation and Hydropower Development Options’. In their report they identified potential hydropower sites on six major river basins namely, Sio, Nzoia, Yala, Nyando, Sondu and Kuja. Two major hydropower development options were identified in Nzoia basin namely; Webuye falls dam and the Hemsted Bridge-Kerio transfer scheme. The river flow availability in the Nzoia Basin is entirely sufficient to meet projected consumptive demands. Table 4.1 shows development options on the basis of the benefit-cost ratios. On this basis it is seen that only two options namely Webuye Falls dam scheme and Hemsted Bridge-Kerio transfer scheme show benefit-cost ratios close to unity. Webuye Falls Dam The Nzoia River cascades waterfalls some 40m in height at Webuye. Various alternatives were examined by Lotti and Associates to exploit this natural feature for the purpose of hydropower generation. Fundamental to these alternatives is the need to provide regulatory storage to enhance the otherwise low dry season flows. Combined developments of either Rongai or Lugari storage reservoirs together with a run-of-river scheme at Webuye have been examined. However, these schemes were found to be uneconomical. The favored arrangement would comprise a 54m high dam some 2.5 km up the stream of the falls supplying a single 30MW power station by means of a 3000m long 3.4m diameter concrete lined tunnel. The reservoir with a full supply level of 1555m would provide a live storage of 200x106m3, equivalent to 14% of the mean annual flow. The firm yields of this reservoir; net evaporation and anticipated future public water supply requirements would be 17.1 m 3/s. A low ridge on the left bank of the river appears to limit the height of the dam and therefore the storage capacity. The wide valley favors an embankment type dam with a reinforced concrete chute spillway situated on the left flank. A spillway design flood of 1525m3/s has tentatively been assumed for the purpose of estimating construction costs. The site topography lends itself to a general arrangement of the power system with a surface powerhouse fed by a long headrace tunnel; a surge chamber located on a knoll some 300m from the powerhouse. A reinforced concrete intake structure would house control gates and trash removal facilities at the head of the tunnel system. Access to site would require the construction of some 4km of access roads while it has bee assumed that construction personnel would be housed in Webuye township, thereby benefiting from the existing infrastructure and minimizing project cost. The existing NairobiKampala railway line traverses the impoundment area of the reservoir. It will therefore be necessary that the railway is diverted to a new alignment crossing downstream of the proposed dam and hence passing to the south of the reservoir. The need for diversion is therefore included in the feasibility study and cost of the project. More detailed studies will be required to finalize scheme details. In particular, an increase in the reservoir storage, should topographical and geological conditions be satisfactory, would sustain an increased firm yield. Alternative power system layouts including underground power houses may also require consideration in view of the limited area available for construction of surface works within the gauge downstream of the falls. The benefit-cost ratio of 0.94 indicates that the cost effectiveness of the project is marginal at present cost and benefit levels. Table 4.1 below shows the development options that can be considered on Webuye falls. Table 4.1 Webuye falls development options Description Unit Development option Webuye fall Webuye falls Webuye falls Webuye falls Run-of-river Supported by Plus Lugari Dam Lugari Dam fill volume MCM 0.1 0.1 0.1+ 6.37 3.88 Reservoir storage MCM - - 234 200 Head (gross) M 60 60 60 + 55 105 Head (mean/min) M 55/55 55 50/25 +55 92/72 MW 16 16 15 + 16 30 Ksh. (million) 249 249 2481 1264 3 m /s 2.0 17.8 17.8 17.1 Firm energy GWh/year 7.7 68.61 130.98 113.45 Secondary energy GWh/year 92.5 23.89 78.79 54.00 Firm energy Ksh. (million) 69.38 617.47 1178.81 1020.92 Secondary energy Ksh. (million) 277.60 71.67 144.15 162.02 Total Ksh. (million) 346.98 689.14 1322.96 1182.94 1.39 2.77 0.89 0.94 (live) Installed power Capital cost Firm flow Capitalized power benefits Benefit-cost ratio 5.0 Project Description According to Lotti and Associates the proposed project will comprise a 54m-earth embankment dam located at 2.5 km upstream of Webuye falls. A reservoir with a full supply level would supply a live storage of 200x106 m3. The dam is expected to supply a single 30MW power station by means of a 3000m long 3.4m diameter concrete lined tunnel with a reinforced concrete intake structure with control gates and trash removal facilities. There would also be a surge chamber located on a knoll 300m from the powerhouse. Access to site would also require construction of 5 km access roads. It is also proposed that the existing Nairobi-Kampala railway line traversing the impounded be diverted to a new alignment. Table 5.1 below shows the project work summary while table 5.2 shows the cost estimate breakdown of the proposed works. Table 5.1 Webuye falls dam project work summary Description Reservoir Dam crest level Full supply level Gross storage Live storage Mean annual runoff (M. A. R) Live storage (% M. A. R.) Gross storage (% M. A. R.) Gross yield Net yield Dam Dam type Dam height Fill volume Power system Gross head Net head Installed capacity Power tunnel length Spillway Spillway type Spillway capacity Hydrologic data Mean annual Eo 80% probability rainfall Drought year losses Quantity 1560m 1555m 220*103 m3 200*103 m3 1437*103 m3 14% 41% 18.6m3/s 17.1m3/s Earth fill embankment 54m 3.81*103 m3 105m 102m 30MW 2.7 km Free overflow chute 1525m3/s 1800 mm 1320 mm 480 mm Table 5.2 Webuye falls dam (Cost estimate breakdown) Description Access roads Camp and sit facilities Embankment Sub-total Spillway Excavation (soft) Excavation (hard) Concrete Formwork Reinforcement Sub-total Intake Excavation (soft) Excavation (hard) Concrete Formwork Reinforcement Structural steel Gates, screens, etc Sub-total Tunnel Excavation (soft) Excavation (hard) Excavation (tunnel) Excavation (shaft) Concrete Formwork Reinforcement Over break Shot Crete Rock bolts Steel pipes Sub-total Surge chamber Excavation (soft) Concrete Formwork Quantity Unit Rate (Kshs) 5 Km 85.25 Sum 3 3880000 M 213.273 Amount (millions) 42.625 50 827.5 924.125 64950 60000 27078 16800 1800 M3 M3 M3 M2 t 116.4 583.3 5191.7 851.2 50377.8 7.56 35 140.58 14.3 90.68 288.12 3000 2000 5670 7315 638 120 M3 M3 M3 M2 t t 116.7 580 5194 853.04 50313.5 193750 Sum 0.35 1.16 29.45 6.24 32.1 23.25 32.16 124.71 2000 2000 37700 707 10788 28840 359.6 38641 18848 28266 98.6 M3 M3 M3 M3 M3 M2 t M2 M2 m t 115 580 2557.3 5799.5 5193.7 851.6 28086.8 1394.89 13959 1394.3 232657.2 0.23 1.16 96.41 41 56.03 24.56 10.1 53.9 26.31 39.41 22.94 372.05 3141 1130 1005 M3 M3 M2 5810.3 5212.39 848.26 18.25 5.89 0.8525 Reinforcement Sub total Diversion and outlet works Excavation Concrete Formwork Reinforcement Cofferdams Sub total Power house and switch yard Excavation (soft) Excavation (rock) Concrete Formwork Reinforcement Structural steel Finishes, services etc Sub total Railway diversion Grand total 113 t 50442.4 5.7 30.6925 4800 2100 3600 180 M3 M3 M2 t 581.25 5190.5 850 50388.9 sum 2.79 10.9 3.06 9.07 7.75 33.57 2000 1100 10520 16160 745 20 M3 M3 M3 M2 t t 116.25 5809.09 5193.9 853.96 50402.68 193750 Sum 15 km 2121.5m 0.2325 6.39 54.64 13.8 37.55 3.875 96.875 535.96 322.6 2631.83 5.1 Project Location Characteristics The proposed hydropower project is located in Nzoia river basin in Bungoma east district of western province. The River Basin measures 12, 843 km2, the length of the mainstream is 275 km and the average elevation is 1,917m above sea level while the maximum elevation on top of mount Elgon is about 4,300m above sea level. The mean slope of the river is 0.01, while that of the basin is 0.071. The mean annual rainfall of the whole basin varies from about 1000 mm at the mouth to more than 2100 mm east of Kakamega. The project dam site is located in Bungoma East district in Western Province of Kenya. 6.0 Objectives Under the rural Electrification programme, the main objective of the government is to provide electricity to as many parts of the country as possible and reduce demand on wood fuel and petroleum for industry. The objectives of this project would therefore be: To increase the supply of energy in the region. To reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum energy. To stimulate industrial development in the region. To reduce demand on wood fuel and conserve forests. To alleviate poverty in the region and raise standards of living. To encourage the development of agro-business and agricultural processing plants. 7.0 Scope Of Work Webuye falls scheme has a potential of generating 30MW. The scope of work comprises collection and analysis of all relevant data and carrying out detailed studies to determine the technical and economic feasibility as well as social and environmental acceptability of the project. The study will make use of earlier studies, and where appropriate will recommend new alternatives which would lead to an optimal development of the river potential. The accepted alternative will be advanced to full feasibility study with emphasis laid on the optimum development of the power potential. This will entail detailed site investigations and design studies leading to confirmation of the engineering viability of the scheme and improved assessment of construction costs. 7.1 Exploring and Inception phase The inception phase of the project shall include the following activities by the consultant: Provide consolidated review of data and information from all relevant previous studies. Undertake topographic surveys of all relevant areas and provide mapping to appropriate scales and contour intervals as agreed with the client. Provide review of the alternatives that exist for river regulation and hydropower development at Webuye falls dam and demonstrate that the selection of the same as a site for hydropower generation is economically viable. Make recommendations for the development concepts to be considered in the full feasibility studies. Provide detailed recommendations for the scope of work to be undertaken in the feasibility studies. Provide detailed description of the impact of the project on the environment and on public health and make recommendations on catchments conservation measures to be considered in full feasibility study. Provide detailed recommendations on how the local community would participate in project implementation. All findings of the phase I work will be presented to the client (within ten months of the start of the work) in form of an inception report. The report should have a proposed table of contents for the final feasibility study report. 7.2 Feasibility studies 7.2.1 Field Investigations and Project formulation Field investigations shall be carried out in sufficient detail to allow for international project appraisal and subsequent preparation of tender designs and tender documents. The following activities shall be included in this phase of the study: (a) Complete any necessary action, administrative and physical, to facilitate site access and establish any necessary on site working facilities. (b) Develop and carry out complete geotechnical and geological field program. (c) Establish an agreed flow record for project design purposes. Establish flood estimates suitable for decision and spillway designs; establish probable maximum flood estimate. (d) Prepare alternative hydropower layouts and scopes of development. (e) Conduct environmental impact assessment. (f) Provide preliminary estimates for alternative layouts established in (d) above. (g) Provide an interim report to the client within eight months of the start of the study, including detailed recommendations on the project layout(s) to be taken to full feasibility level. Discuss conclusions with the client and funding agency. 7.2.2 Feasibility studies (a) Taking into consideration the comments on the interim report and having regard for the findings of the field investigations, prepare a recommended project layout on the basis of the further studies including: - Finalize dam/diversion/spillway design and optimization of dam crest elevation. - Select installed generating capacity, and number type of turbine generator units. - Optimize water passage design and sizing, having regard for the likely operating modes of station. - Finalize powerhouse, switch house, switchgears and interconnection arrangements, having regard for KENGEN design and operation standards. (b) Finalize assessment of socio-economic and environmental impacts and compensation costs. (c) Prepare detailed cost estimates; capital and recurring for all works including construction costs, engineering, project management and owner costs operation and maintenance. (d) Prepare time schedules for project appraisal, financing and contract award, construction and commissioning through to full production. (e) Prepare cash flows to a quarter-annual disbursement schedule, separating major items/contracts into foreign and local cost components and showing separate allowances for physical and price contingencies. (f) Undertake detailed economic analysis of the ‘with’ and ‘without ‘ project scenarios to determine the economic viability of the proposed hydropower generation. The analysis should be based on economic pricing including shadow pricing of all costs and benefits, with presentation of results including: - Net benefits and benefits/costs ratios versus discount rate. - Internal rates of return. - Sensitivity analysis against all significant variables, costs, benefits or demerits that have been omitted from the economic analysis, including benefits derived from environmental improvements. 7.3 Phase III Project Preparations, Design And Tender Documentation. The consultant shall also prepare the following final tender documents: (a) Tender documents for civil works. (b) Tender documents for metal works. (c) Tender documents for generating equipment, transmission lines and sub-station equipment. (d) Prepare final estimates of the financing requirements for all contracts, including separate allowances for physical and price contingencies, showing foreign and local costs components separately; and showing disbursement schedules. (e) The consultant will be expected to provide draft tender documents and discuss with the client within twenty-one months of the start of the study. (f) The consultant will be expected to provide final tender documents within six weeks of receiving the client’s comments. 8.0 Reporting The consultant shall prepare and provide the following reports during the study as shown in the time schedule in Annex I. (a) Inception report (b) Interim report (c) Draft feasibility report (d) Final feasibility report. (e) Draft Tender Design/documents (f) Final Tender Design/documents (g) Progress reports. 9.0 Training Provisions Training is an important part of the feasibility study and the consultant shall offer facilities to be agreed with the client for both on-the-job training and short courses at the consultant’s head offices and approved institutions of higher learning. Annex I Time Schedule (Months) Month Phase I INCEPTION Inception Report Client/financier comments Phase II FEASIBILTY STUDIES Interim Report Client/financier comments Draft Feasibility Report Client/financier comments Final Feasibility Report Phase III TENDER DESIGN AND TENDER DOCUMENTATIO N Draft Tender documentation Client Comments Final Tender Documents 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23