INDONESIA ENER RGY POLICY

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PRIORITY TO DECISION MAKING
IEEJ : August 2014
CHANGING ENERGY FUTURE
FUTURE,, STARTS NOW
INDONESIA ENER
RGY POLICY
Ministry of Energy and Miineral Resources
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
OUTL
LINE
I.
II.
III.
IV
IV.
V
V.
INDONESIA AT TH
HE GLANCE
CURRENT ENERG
GY POLICY
NATIONAL ENERG
GY POLICY
CHALLENGES
PARTICIPANT’S
PARTICIPANT
SG
GOALS
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
I INDONESIA A
I.
AT A GLANCE
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
INDONESIA’S PROFILE
2011
Indicator
Population
GDP
Nominal Growth
240 million
1.49%
$ 846.3 billions
GDP p
per
capita (PPP)
INDONESIA
6.4%
$ 3,542
3 542
17.000 islands
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
INDONESIA
A’S PROFILE
• In the last few years, Indonesia managed to maintain a good economic growth and attractive investment climate. • That is reflected in increasing of rating and amount of investment
Realization and Indonesian Investment Projections
Indonesian Investment Projections
Institutions
USD Billions
Actual
Projected
Rating
Outlook
S&P (Jan’12)
BB+
Positive
Fitch (Dec’11)
BBB-
Stable
Moody’s
(Jan’12)
Baa3
Stable
56.32
22
60.00
43.367
40.00
31.500
23.167
20.00
26 667
26.667
15.011
.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
4
source: The Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia, 2011
“Indonesia was ranked 9th as major destination for FDI”
World Investment Prospects Survey 2010 – 2012, UNCTA
AD
The government has set a target for Indonesia to
become an advanced country by 2025 and the IMF
predicts that it will be the world's fifth largest
economy by 2030
5
Euromonitor International,
International 2012
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
HIGH ECONOMIC
C GROWTH AND
SUSTAIINABLE
Economic goals:
(1) High income country;
(2) Top 10 world's biggest economy by 2025,, and top 6 by 2050.
GDP: US$ 3,8 – 4,5 trillion
Acceleration of
i l if
inclusif
economic
growth and
g
sustainable
GDP/capita:
US$ ~ 13.000 – 16.100
GDP: US$ ~ 1,2 trillion
(high income country)
GDP/capita:
US$ ~ 4.800-5.000
GDP ~ US$ 850 billion
GDP/capita: US$ 3.542,9
2011-2014: 6,4 – 7,5 %/year
2015-2025: 7,5 – 9 %/year
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
CURRENT C
CONDITION
Demand for energy, materials, water and other key resources demand is likely to increase rapidly
Indonesia today…
…and in 2030
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
POTENTIAL AND ENE
ERGY PRODUCTION
NO
FOSSIL ENERGY
RESOURCE
(RE)
RESERVE
(RV)
RATIO RE/RV
(%)
PRODUCTION
(PROD)
RATIO RV/PROD
(YEAR)*)
1
2
3
4
5 = 4/3
6
7 = 4/6
1
Oil (Billion
(Billi barrel)
b l)
56 6
56.6
7 73 **)
7.73
14
0 329
0.329
23
2
Gas (TSCF)
334.5
152.9
46
3.07
50
3
Coal (billion ton)
161.3 ***)
28.17
17
0.353
80
4
Coal Bed Methane (TSCF)
453
-
-
-
-
5
Shale Gas (TSCF)
574
-
-
-
-
*) Assuming no new reserve are found
**) Including Cepu Block
***) Including 41 Billion Ton underground resources
NO
NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY
RESOURCE (R
RE)
INSTALLED CAPACITY (IC)
RATIO IC/RE
1
2
3
4
5 = 4/3
1
Hydro
75.670 MW
W
6.654,29 MW
8,79 %
2
Geothermal
29.038 MW
W
1.226 MW
4,22 %
3
Mini/Micro Hydro
769,69 MW
W
228,983 MW
29,75 %
4
Biomass
49.810 MW
W
1.618,40 MW
3,25 %
5
Solar
4,80 kWh/m2/dday
22,45 MW
-
6
Wind
3 – 6 m/s
1,87 MW
-
7
Uranium
*)
3.000 MW ((e.q.
q 24,112
,
tonn)) for 11 years
y
30 MW
,00 %
1,00
*) Only in Kalan – West Kalimantan
Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
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II. CURRENT EN
NERGY
POLICY
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
CURRENT ENER
RGY CONDITION
1. 28% or US$ 41,9 billion of total national budget comes from
f
energy & mineral sector revenue;
2 F
2.
Fuell andd electricity
l i i are still
ill subsidized,
b idi d andd the
h amount is
i iincreasing
i every year. FFor 2012
2012, amount off subsidy
b id
aproximately US$ 25 billion, which 77% are not on targeet;
3 Investment
3.
In estment in EMR sector reached US$ 27 billion in 20111.
11 Good Investment
In estment climate;
climate
4. Indonesia has diversity of energy;
5. Indonesia is an exporter energy (oil, coal, and gas), but also an importer of energy (fuel);
6. Gas utilization is 56% for export and 44% for domestic;
7. Oil still has the largest share (49,7%). Use of Renewablee energy still only around 6%. Renewable energy are
targeted to reach 26% in 2025;
8. Growth in energy consumption is average of 7% per yeaar, but has not been supported by enough supply energy.
Dependence on fossil fuels is still high, even though thee reserve is decreasing;
9. Limited access of energy, electrification ratio still only 811%. Infrastructure is one of challenge to fulfill domestic
energy needs.
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
NATIONAL ENE
ERGY MIX 2012
Gaas
20,1
20 1 %
Coal
24 5 %
24,5
Oil
49,7 %
Renewable
5,7 %
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
CONTRIBUTION ENERGY & MINERAL REVENUE
R
TO NATIONAL
BUDGET
Total National Budget 2012
$151 billion
1. Energy & mineral revenue is still the backbone of Indonesia
backbone of
Indonesia’ss economy
economy
$
$29,6 (20%)
2. 28% or US$ 41,9 billion of total national budget comes from energy & mineral sector revenue
sector revenue
$12,3
3;
$12 3 ; (8%
%)
3. 20% or US$ 29,6 billion of total national budget is cotributed by oil&gas revenue
$ 109
(72%)
ENERGY & MINERAL SECTOR REVENUE
50,0
45,0
$ 0,05
(0,0032%
%)
(0 0032%
Oil and gas
BilionUS$
40,0
In billion US$
Mining & geothermal
Mining & geothermal
Others
Others
th
Mining
Oil &gas
35,0
300
30,0
25,0
20,0
0,2
31,8
41 89
41,89
0,05
8,9
12,26
31,2
29,58
0,1
22 9
22,9
7,4
0,1
5,1
15,0
10,0
40,3
24 3
24,3
17,7
5,0
Other sector (non EMR)
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-
2009
2010
2011
2012
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
II. NATIONAL ENERGY
POLICY
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
NATIONAL ENERGY
E
MIX
Target of 2025 (~400 TOE)
Gas 20,1 %
Oil
49,7 %
Gas
22%
Coal
24,5 %
Oil
25 %
25%
Coal
30 %
Renewable
23 %
Renewable
5,7 %
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
NATIONAL ENER
RGY DEMAND
10
9
7.72
M
Million B
BOEPD
8
7
5.90
6
0.88
4.36
5
4
2.00
3.23
0.46
2.4
2.2
3
0.18
0.8
1.4
2
0.65
0.85
1.12
1
1.60
1 60
1 69
1.69
1.73
1.83
2010
2015
2020
2025
1.52
• Energy demand gy
increases every year following the economic growth.
th
• Portion of renewable energy will be be 25 9%
energy will be be 25,9% in 2025.
• Investment is required to q
fulfill energy demand.
0
Renewable
Coal
Gas
Oil
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
LEGAL FRAMEWORK OF NATIONAL
N
ENERGY POLICY
UU No.10 / 1997 on Nuclear
UU No. 22 / 2001 on Oil and Gas
UU No. 27 / 2003 on Geothermal
UU No. 17 / 2007 on National Long Term Development Planning (RPJPN)
UU No. 4 / 2009 on Mining and Coal
UU No. 30 / 2009 on Electricity
UU No. 32 / 2009 on Environmental
g
Other Law and Regulation
UU N
UU N
No. 30/2007 on Energy
30/2007
E
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY
UU No. 30/2009 on Electricity
REGIONAL REGIONAL
ENERGY PLAN (Province)
NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING
REGIONAL ENERGY REGIONAL
ENERGY
PLAN (City/District)
NATIONAL PLANNING OF ELECTRICITY
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
POLICY AND DIRECTION OF NATIONAL
ENERGY
Y POLICY
1.
To shift the paradigm in energy management;
2.
Energy
gy sovereignty
g y management;
g
3.
To ensure the availability of domestic energy;;
4.
To optimalize energy resources managementt;
5.
Efficiencyy of energy
gy utilization;;
6.
To improve energy accessibility;
7.
To develop capabilities and independency of energy industry;
8.
Job creation;
9.
Preserving the environmental functions.
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
THE GOAL OF NA
ATIONAL ENERGY
POL
LICY
1.
To establish of a new paradigm that energy as a source of development;
2.
To achieve energy elasticity is smaller thann 1 (one) in 2025, which is aligned with the
economic growth target
3.
To achieve final energy intensity reduction become 1 (one) percent per year in 2025;
4.
To achieve of electrification ratio of 85% byy 2015 and approach 100% in 2020;
5.
To achieve household ratio of gas utilizatioon by 85% in 2015;
6.
To fulfill the objectives of supply and utilizaation of energy;
7.
To achieve the optimal of primary energy mix.
m
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
IV CHALLENGES
IV.
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
SHARE OF ENERGY SUBSIDY IN NATIONAL BUDGET
Total government expenditure in national budg
get 2012:
US$ 172 billion
Energy subsidy::
US$ 25 billion
(15%)
Other government expenditure:
US$ 147 billion
(85%)
• Total ggovernment expenditure
p
in 2012 is US$$
172 billion;
• US$ 25 billion or 15% of government
expenditure is used for energy subsidy;
• Energy subsidy has a great share in national
b d t so th
budget,
thatt other
th iimportant
t t program
cannot deliver to the fullest;
• Most of energy subsidy is not on target;
• Increasing in fuels consumption could make
subsidyy to become US$$ 34 billon ((19%).
)
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
POTENTIAL AND ENE
ERGY PRODUCTION
NO
FOSSIL ENERGY
RESOURCE
(RE)
RESERVE
(RV)
RATIO RE/RV
(%)
PRODUCTION
(PROD)
RATIO RV/PROD
(YEAR)*)
1
2
3
4
5 = 4/3
6
7 = 4/6
1
Oil (Billion
(Billi barrel)
b l)
56 6
56.6
7 73 **)
7.73
14
0 329
0.329
23
2
Gas (TSCF)
334.5
152.9
46
3.07
50
3
Coal (billion ton)
161.3 ***)
28.17
17
0.353
80
4
Coal Bed Methane (TSCF)
453
-
-
-
-
5
Shale Gas (TSCF)
574
-
-
-
-
*) Assuming no new reserve are found
**) Including Cepu Block
***) Including 41 Billion Ton underground resources
NO
NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY
RESOURCE (R
RE)
INSTALLED CAPACITY (IC)
RATIO IC/RE
1
2
3
4
5 = 4/3
1
Hydro
75.670 MW
W
6.654,29 MW
8,79 %
2
Geothermal
29.038 MW
W
1.226 MW
4,22 %
3
Mini/Micro Hydro
769,69 MW
W
228,983 MW
29,75 %
4
Biomass
49.810 MW
W
1.618,40 MW
3,25 %
5
Solar
4,80 kWh/m2/dday
22,45 MW
-
6
Wind
3 – 6 m/s
1,87 MW
-
7
Uranium
*)
3.000 MW ((e.q.
q 24,112
,
tonn)) for 11 years
y
30 MW
,00 %
1,00
*) Only in Kalan – West Kalimantan
Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
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V PARTICIPAN
V.
NT’S
NT
S GOALS
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
PARTICIPAN
NT’S GOALS
• To
To formulate energy planning formulate energy planning in medium term and long term in medium term and long term
references for indonesia as the country with rapid economic growth.
• To formulate energy policy forr the developing countries which the level of dependence on fo
the level of dependence on fo
ossil fuels subsidized is high
ossil fuels subsidized is high enough. This led to the difficu
ulty of the development of alternative energy especially r
gy p
y renewable energy.
gy
• To provide better input in the formulation of national energy plan as a derivative of a nation
plan as a derivative of a nation
nal energy policy drawn up by
nal energy policy drawn up by the national energy council. So it can be implemented p p y
properly and successfully achi
y
ieve the goals of the national g
energy policy that has been seet.
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
dm go id
dm.go.id
www.esd
www
esd
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
OIL AND GAS RESERVE
as of 01 Januari 2013
6,93
,
150,68
1,22
110,67
360.65
50.27
14,63
3.386,67
2,58
8,06
573,50
0
51,87
PAPUA
65,97
18,30
23,90
1.005,34
,
24,96
3,18
15,21
5,89
494,89
1.312,03
,
OIL REMAINING RESERVE (MMSTB)
RESERVE (MMSTB)
PROVEN (P1) = 3.692,50 MMSTB
GAS REMAINING RESERVE (TSCF)
GAS REMAINING RESERVE (TSCF)
PROVEN (P1)
= 101,54 TSCF
POTENTIAL (P2+P3) = 3.857,31 MMSTB
POTENTIAL (P2+P3) = 48,85 TSCF
TOTAL (3P)
TOTAL (3P) TOTAL (3P)
= 7.549,81 MMSTB
7.549,81 MMSTB
25
= 150,39
150 39 TSCF
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
INDONESIAN BASINS
Eastern part
Discoveries in Jurrasic Plays 1998‐2008
Western part (mature fields)
< 100 MMBOE
Discovered Basin
100 ‐ 500 MMBOE
Undiscovered Basin
500 ‐ 1000 MMBOE
New B
Basin (2008)
1000 ‐ 1500 or up to 1500 MMBOE
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2010 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
COAL BED METHA
ANE RESOURCES
NORTH TARAKAN BASIN
(17.50 TCF)
KUTEI BASIN
(80.40 TCF)
BERAU BASIN
(8 40 TCF)
(8.40 TCF)
CENTRAL SUMATERA BASIN
(52.50 TCF)
OMBILIN BASIN
(0.50 TCF)
KALIMANTAN
BARITO BASIN
(101.60 TCF)
SOUTH
SUMATERA BASIN
(183.00 TCF)
PAPUA
Legends :
Legends :
CBM Basin
SULAWESI
PASIR AND ASEM BASIN
ASEM B
(3.00 TCF)
BENGKULU BASIN
(3.60 TCF)
SOUTHWEST
SULAWESI BASIN
(2.00 TCF)
JATIBARANG BASIN
(
(0.80 TCF)
)
• Resource potential estimated at 453
p
TCF
• Total CBM Basin = 11
• Contract Signed up to 2012 : 50 CBM PSC
Cs
• Early good results in East Kalimantan, currrently used for small scale power generation; future development includes supply to existing LNG facility
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
COAL RESOURCE AND RES
SERVE
TOTAL RESOURCES
161.34 Billion Ton*
TOTAL RESERVE
28.17 Billion T on
Very High ( >
Very
High ( > 7100 kal/gr
7100 kal/gr )
High ( 6100 ‐ 7100 kal/gr )
Medium ( 5100 ‐ 6100 kal/gr )
Low ( < 5100 kal/gr )
Low ( < 5100 kal/gr
*) 41 billion ton is underground mining
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
MINERAL RESOURCE AND RESE
ERVE
NO
Ferro and Associates : Fe, Nickel, Cobalt, Chromit , Mangan, M
Molibdenum, Titanium
Precious Metal : Gold, Silver, Platinum
Base Metal
: Zinc, Cupper, Tin, Lead, Mercury
Light and Rare metal : Bauxite, Monasit
COMODITY
RESOURCE
(MILLION TON ORE)
RERSERVE
(MILLION TON ORE)
TON ORE)
1
Copper
4.925 4.161
2
Bauxite
551
180 3
Nickel
2.633
577
577 4
Iron sand
1.649
5 5
Lateritic iron
1.462
106
6
Primary iron
Primary iron
563
30
30 7
Iron sediment
18
‐
8
Manganese
11
4
9
Alluvial gold
1.455
17 10
Primary gold
5.386
4.231
11
Silver
3.406
4.104 12
Zinc
577
7 13
Tin
354
0,7 14
Lead
d
363
1,6
29
(Source : Geological Agency,
Agency
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL IN INDONESIA
PLTP LAHENDONG:
80 MW
PLTP SIBAYAK: 12 MW
KALIMANTAN
115 MW
8 LOKASI
SUMATERA
13 516 MW
13.516
86 LOKASI
SULAWESI
2.519 MW
55 LOKASI
PLTP GUNUNG
SALAK: 377 MW
PLTP WAYANG
WINDU: 227 MW
PLTP KAMOJANG:
200 MW
JAWA
10.092 MW
71 LOKASI
PLTP DARAJAT: 270 MW
MALUKU
954 MW
24 LOKASI
PAPUA
75 MW
3 LOKASI
BA
ALI + NT
1.767 MW
27 LOKASI
PLTP DIENG: 60 MW
*) Does not account for potential geothermal offshore
CCcContact: [email protected]
TOTAL POTENTIAL: 29.038 MW (276 LOCATION)
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY: 1.226 MW (6 WORKING ACREAGE)
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Etnawati Prihandayani  MEMR Indonesia  EMR for People’s Welfare
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