MARKET ACCESS SECRETARIAT
Global Analysis Report
Market Overview
Indonesia
June 2014
MARKET SNAPSHOT
• With a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$868.4 billion in
2013, which is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2014, Indonesia is
the fifth-largest economy in the Asia Pacific region, following
China, Japan, India, and South Korea.
CONTENTS
Market Snapshot ............................ 1
Production ...................................... 2
Trade .............................................. 3
• Indonesia is also the fourth-most populous country in the world
with 247.1 million people. The population is expected to reach
256.3 million by 2017 and 262.6 million by 2020.
Consumer Foodservice .................. 4
Retail Sales .................................... 4
• Annual consumer expenditure was US$1,967 per capita in
2013, with food and non-alcoholic beverages representing
US$653 or 33.2% of that total.
• The consumer foodservice industry is expanding and is
forecast to reach total value sales of US$49.6 billion by 2015.
The rapidly growing middle class will increase by 90 million
consumers by 2030, and consumer spending is expected to
grow by 53% between 2013 and 2020.
• With increasing disposable incomes, Indonesian consumers
are seeking products that offer convenience. Packaged food
sales continue to grow steadily, and are expected to reach a
value of US$33.2 billion by 2015.
• The top packaged food company in the market is currently
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT with an 11.8% value share,
followed by Nestlé SA (5.3%) and Danone Groupe (3.7%).
• The agriculture sector employs 33.9% of the work force and is
estimated at 15% of GDP. Small-scale farms produce mainly
rice, fruit, and vegetables, while estate-grown crops are
destined for the export market. Cultivation of high-yielding
hybrid rice is helping to achieve self-sufficiency (Euromonitor
International, 2014).
Resources ...................................... 6
PRODUCTION
• As shown in the table below, palm fruit oil, rice paddy and sugar cane are the top domestic crops in
Indonesia, with the leading positions in terms of volume production for the 2008 to 2012 period. Palm
fruit oil remains Indonesia’s primary domestic crop, with production increasing steadily each year.
Volume production grew by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2008 to 2012.
• Palm kernels currently represent Indonesia’s eighth-largest domestic crop in production terms, saw the
largest production volume growth in 2012 over 2011 with 11.9%, and also recorded the best CAGR,
with 8.6% over the five-year period.
Crop Production and Livestock in Indonesia
Top ten crops
(tonnes)
Palm fruit oil
2008
85,000,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
90,000,000
97,800,000
101,700,000
109,000,000
Rice, paddy
60,251,072
64,398,890
66,469,394
65,740,946
69,045,141
Sugar cane
25,600,000
26,400,000
26,600,000
24,000,000
26,341,600
Cassava
21,593,052
22,039,148
23,918,118
24,009,624
23,922,075
Palm oil
17,539,788
19,324,293
19,760,011
21,449,000
23,672,000
Maize
16,323,922
17,629,740
18,327,636
17,629,033
19,377,030
Coconuts
17,937,000
19,000,000
18,000,000
17,500,000
18,000,000
Palm kernels
4,700,000
5,130,000
5,380,000
5,840,000
6,540,000
Bananas
Other fresh tropical
fruit
6,004,615
6,373,533
5,755,073
6,132,695
6,189,052
3,014,605
3,157,095
2,321,047
3,279,090
3,147,488
Meat indigenous
(tonnes)
Chicken
Pork
Beef
Goat
Sheep
Livestock
(head)
Goats
Cattle
Sheep
Pigs
Buffaloes
2008
1,349,523
656,914
236,789
66,141
47,049
2008
15,147,432
12,256,604
9,605,339
6,338,000
1,930,716
2009
1,404,394
666,410
233,055
73,864
54,205
2009
15,815,000
12,759,838
10,199,484
6,975,000
1,933,000
2010
1,539,452
713,573
277,327
68,813
44,905
2010
16,620,000
13,582,000
10,725,000
7,477,000
1,999,500
2011
1,664,764
743,400
392,720
66,356
46,834
2011
17,483,000
14,824,000
11,372,000
7,758,000
1,305,000
2012
1,751,716
751,100
413,003
68,640
44,684
2012
17,862,000
16,034,600
12,768,400
7,831,000
1,378,100
Source for all: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, March 2014
Page | 2
TRADE
• Indonesia is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products. In 2012, Indonesia’s agri-food and
seafood trade surplus was C$15 billion with imports valued at C$17.7 billion, and C$32.7 billion in
exports. Indonesia’s agri-food and seafood imports have been growing at an average rate of 19.2%
over the last three years.
• Indonesia’s top agri-food and seafood imports in 2012 were non-durum wheat, soybean meal, sugar,
cotton, and soybeans. Key supplying countries were Australia, the United States, Thailand, Argentina,
th
and China. Canada was Indonesia’s 11 largest supplier of total agri-food and seafood products in
2012, with a 2.7% share.
Indonesia’s Top Agri-Food & Seafood Imports from the World, 2012
Commodity
Import Value
C$ millions
Non-durum wheat
2,181.6
Soybean meal
1,826.6
Raw cane sugar
1,409.7
Cotton, not carded or combed
1,332.1
Soybeans
1,208.7
Rice
819.3
Corn
495.3
Food preparations
474.5
Animal feed
452.4
Skim milk powder
429.1
Top Suppliers & Market Share
Canada's
Share
1
2
3
Australia
Canada
United States
17.8%
65.4%
17.8%
11.5%
Argentina
Brazil
India
0.0%
80.5%
9.1%
5.5%
Thailand
Brazil
Australia
0.0%
53.1%
34.8%
9.0%
Brazil
Australia
United States
0.0%
26.9%
17.8
13.8%
United States
Malaysia
South Africa
0.4%
93.4%
3.9%
1.5%
Vietnam
Thailand
India
0.0%
66.5%
21.8%
11.0%
India
Argentina
Pakistan
0.0%
64.3%
17.9%
9.1%
United States
China
Singapore
0.3%
20.3%
19.7%
18.0%
United States
Australia
Singapore
7.4%
33.9
17.7%
15.9%
New Zealand United States
Australia
1.7%
29.6%
24.2%
17.2%
Source: Global Trade Atlas, March 2104
• Indonesia’s processed food imports were valued at C$8.0 billion in 2012. Canada’s share was 0.8%.
Argentina, the United States, Thailand, Vietnam, and China are the largest suppliers of processed
food to Indonesia, providing 55.5% of the market in 2012. Indonesia’s processed food imports had an
annual growth rate of 15.3% over the last three years.
• Canada’s agri-food and seafood exports to Indonesia were valued at C$563.3 million in 2013. Top
exports were non-durum wheat, meat flours, meals and pellets, frozen crab, frozen fries, and
soybeans. In 2013, Canada imported C$144.3 million from Indonesia, thus registering an agri-food
and seafood trade surplus of C$419 million with the country.
Page | 3
CONSUMER FOODSERVICE
• The foodservice industry in Indonesia grew by 25.3% from 2009 to 2012 and further growth of 39.1%
is projected to 2016. 100% home delivery/takeaway and fast food showed the most total growth over
the period of 2009 to 2012 with 1133.3% and 40.2%, respectively. The 100% home delivery/takeaway
sector is relatively small in terms of value sales (US$14.8 million) as compared to other sectors such
as full-service restaurants (US$31.9 billion) and cafes/bars (US$3.8 billion), and is dominated by
chained operators. Over the forecast period of 2012 to 2016, home delivery/takeaway will remain the
best performing category in terms of sales growth (196.6%), followed by fast food (56.1%). This sector
is gaining in popularity amongst operators and consumers as this type of service reaches more cities
in Indonesia, and appeals to the increasingly busy lifestyles of urban consumers (Euromonitor
International, 2013).
• The Indonesian foodservice industry is dominated by independent operators, which account for 93% of
total outlets, 90% of total transactions, and 93% of total value sales. In regards to chained operators,
the top five companies of Yum! Brand Inc. (KFC, Pizza Hut), Top Food Indonesia PT (Es Teler 77),
McDonald’s Corp, Sederhana Citra Mandiri PT (Sederhana, Rumah Makan), and A Great American
Brand (A&W), account for 41.4% of the market share.
Indonesian Consumer Foodservice at a Glance
Consumer Foodservice
Sales (US$ millions)
Outlets
Transactions (‘000)
Average Sales/Outlet
Average Sales/Transaction
Source: Euromonitor International, 2014
2010
33,370.7
198,007
5,546,935.6
$168,533
$6.02
2012
38,956.9
203,253
5,877,052.8
$191,667
$6.63
F
2014
45,562.7
207,554
6,138,017.2
$219,522
$7.42
F
2016
54,174.9
210,841
6,327,493.5
$256,947
$8.56
F= forecast
RETAIL SALES
• Like other markets in the region, Indonesia is also experiencing a rise in sales of health and wellness
packaged foods. Indonesian consumers are making healthier food choices based on growing
awareness of the effects of a poor diet, obesity and heart disease. Manufacturers continue to invest in
new products fortified with vitamins, healthy ingredients, reduced sugar, cholesterol, and fat. The
middle- to upper-income groups are willing to pay a higher price for healthier products (Euromonitor
International, 2013). Health and wellness is forecasted to grow by a CAGR of 12.5% through 2015.
• As a result of Indonesia’s political and economic stability, increasing investment in modern retailer
outlets has improved the distribution of packaged food within the country, especially for refrigerated
products.
• Expansion in production capacity in 2012 by both multinationals and domestic packaged food
companies, resulted in new product launches which piqued the interest of Indonesian consumers,
thereby increasing volume growth.
• Overall, packaged food sales increased by a CAGR of 13.6% over the period of 2009 to 2013, with
further increases of 12.3% forecasted to 2018. Within this category, the best performing segment is
meal replacement, registering a significant CAGR of 69.3% over the 2009-2013 period.
Page | 4
Agri-Food Retail Sales in Indonesia
Historic in US$ Millions, Fixed 2013 Exchange Rate
Category
Health and Wellness by Type
Better For You (BFY)
Food Intolerance
Fortified/Functional (FF)
Naturally Healthy (NH)
Organic
Packaged Food
Baby Food
Bakery
Canned/Preserved Food
Chilled Processed Food
Confectionery
Dairy
Dried Processed Food
Frozen Processed Food
Ice Cream
Meal Replacement
Noodles
Oils and Fats
Pasta
Ready Meals
Sauces, Dressings and Condiments
Snack Bars
Soup
Spreads
Sweet and Savoury Snacks
Hot Drinks**
Soft Drinks**
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6,125.1
77.0
9.9
3,922.7
2,108.3
7.2
15,627.4
1,596.9
2,385.6
268.5
72.0
1,297.4
1,709.5
5,193.7
348.6
204.6
16.9
1,588.9
805.7
14.0
4.4
741.8
2.7
3.2
70.7
889.6
1,267.6
3,670.2
7,028.3
86.9
10.9
4,539.3
2,382.5
8.8
17,650.7
1,836.8
2,593.4
319.1
80.4
1,422.0
1,900.8
5,947.7
409.7
221.9
31.9
1,736.5
964.3
16.0
4.7
828.7
3.9
3.7
76.5
988.3
1,435.9
4,149.2
8,088.2
96.6
12.5
5,279.1
2,690.6
9.3
20,082.9
2,090.7
2,858.9
379.9
92.3
1,570.1
2,134.6
6,844.0
466.3
255.8
53.4
1,871.0
1,177.7
18.5
5.0
932.7
6.3
4.3
83.7
1,108.8
1,608.4
4,672.7
9,259.4
108.4
14.8
6,086.3
3,039.6
10.2
22,861.9
2,371.6
3,200.5
453.0
108.6
1,760.4
2,416.5
7,828.8
542.7
299.4
90.6
2,110.3
1,372.6
20.8
5.5
1,049.2
10.0
4.8
92.6
1,234.9
1,815.6
5,269.8
10,541.7
121.9
17.7
6,941.2
3,449.5
11.4
25,990.6
2,682.6
3,567.7
536.4
128.3
1,980.0
2,715.3
8,980.1
639.1
356.1
139.1
2,431.9
1,541.7
23.7
6.0
1,184.9
12.6
5.5
103.0
1,389.6
2,052.5
5,958.7
CAGR %
2009-13
14.5
12.2
15.5
15.3
13.1
12.2
13.6
13.8
10.6
18.9
15.5
11.1
12.3
14.7
16.4
14.9
69.3
11.2
17.6
14.1
8.2
12.4
47.1
14.9
9.9
11.8
12.8
12.9
Source: Euromonitor, March 2014.
CAGR = compound annual growth rate
*Note: Hot drink and soft drink values are based on a fixed 2012 exchange rate
Page | 5
Agri-Food Retail Sales in Indonesia
Forecast in US$ Millions, Fixed 2013 Exchange Rate
Category
Health and Wellness by Type
Better For You (BFY)
Food Intolerance
Fortified/Functional (FF)
Naturally Healthy (NH)
Organic
Packaged Food
Baby Food
Bakery
Canned/Preserved Food
Chilled Processed Food
Confectionery
Dairy
Dried Processed Food
Frozen Processed Food
Ice Cream
Meal Replacement
Noodles
Oils and Fats
Pasta
Ready Meals
Sauces, Dressings and Condiments
Snack Bars
Soup
Spreads
Sweet and Savoury Snacks
Hot Drinks**
Soft Drinks**
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
11,890.5
137.3
19.8
7,826.6
3,894.0
12.8
29,414.7
3,007.8
3,952.3
632.0
151.2
2,210.9
3,024.0
10,272.3
750.4
421.9
197.0
2,779.6
1,726.8
27.0
6.6
1,336.4
15.3
6.3
115.0
1,563.1
2,300.5
6,714.7
13,347.3
153.6
22.3
8,778.2
4,378.8
14.4
33,152.2
3,350.4
4,359.4
739.0
177.4
2,453.8
3,368.3
11,689.8
876.5
500.2
262.9
3,161.5
1,921.2
30.8
7.3
1,505.6
17.8
7.2
129.0
1,757.9
2,568.9
7,536.0
14,929.7
171.0
25.2
9,818.5
4,898.7
16.3
37,229.4
3,717.2
4,793.8
858.9
207.2
2,714.0
3,736.2
13,241.4
1,019.1
588.2
337.7
3,580.2
2,131.5
35.1
8.1
1,695.4
20.3
8.2
144.0
1,976.4
2,855.8
8,434.3
16,671.0
189.9
28.7
10,973.3
5,460.4
18.7
41,732.3
4,117.8
5,268.5
994.7
241.2
2,996.2
4,139.9
14,944.2
1,180.6
690.3
423.6
4,040.5
2,366.4
40.3
9.0
1,909.7
23.0
9.4
160.6
2,221.3
3,164.0
9,424.3
18,597.9
210.7
32.7
12,260.0
6,072.8
21.6
46,726.8
4,557.5
5,792.2
1,149.1
279.8
3,309.1
4,588.0
16,802.8
1,362.8
809.5
524.3
4,544.0
2,631.3
46.2
10.1
2,152.0
26.0
10.7
179.0
2,502.1
3,496.3
10,521.2
CAGR %
2014-18
11.8
11.3
13.4
11.9
11.8
14.1
12.3
10.9
10.0
16.1
16.6
10.6
11.0
13.1
16.1
17.7
27.7
13.1
11.1
14.4
11.1
12.6
14.2
14.1
11.7
12.5
11.0
11.9
Source: Euromonitor, March 2014.
CAGR = compound annual growth rate
*Note: Hot drink and soft drink values are based on a fixed 2012 exchange rate
RESOURCES
Euromonitor International (2014).
Euromonitor International (2013).
— Packaged Food Sales in Indonesia (February 2013)
— Consumer Foodservice in Indonesia (September 2013)
— Health and Wellness in Indonesia (October 2013)
FAOSTAT (2014). Agricultural Production – Indonesia.
Global Trade Atlas (2014). Import and export statistics – Indonesia.
World Bank (2014).
Page | 6
Market Overview: Indonesia
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represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2014).
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