ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH Online Open Access publishing platform for Management Research © Copyright 2010 All rights reserved Integrated Publishing association Review Article ISSN 2229 – 3795
The Evolution of Marketing History: a peek through Google Ngram Viewer Nitu Kumar 1 , Manish Sahu 2 1­ Dr.Ambedkar Institute of Management Studies and Research, Nagpur, India 2­ Indus Ideas Centre For Research, Nagpur, India dr.nitukumar@gmail.com ABSTRACT The Ngram Viewer, a tool launched by Google Labs, creates a graphical representation of how often a phrase has been used in books from a corpus of 5 million books published between 1500 and 2000 A.D. which have been digitised by the Google Books project. This study searches for key terms related to marketing and traces the evolution of marketing approaches from the 16 th century to the modern day. The study finds that the results of the Ngram viewer are in agreement with various scholars who have studied the periodisation of marketing. This study traces the history of marketing through various stages–from development of markets, production­oriented approach, sales­oriented approach, the development of the marketing concept to the modern day societal­marketing approach. Keywords: Google Ngram Viewer, marketing history, marketing periodisation, evolution of marketing, origin of marketing 1. Introduction In December 2010, Google Labs released a new tool for analysing the history of language and culture. Called the Ngram Viewer, it is an interface to study the enormous corpus of historical texts scanned by Google Books. The Ngram Viewer was rolled out in conjunction with a paper in the journal Science introducing the field of "culturomics." (Gray et al., 2010). According to the paper, they have constructed a corpus of digitised texts containing about 4% of all books ever printed. Analysis of this corpus enables researchers to investigate cultural trends quantitatively. The paper says: “We survey the vast terrain of “culturomics”, focusing on linguistic and cultural phenomena that were reflected in the English language between 1800 and 2000. We show how this approach can provide insights about fields as diverse as lexicography, the evolution of grammar, collective memory, the adoption of technology, the pursuit of fame, censorship, and historical epidemiology. “Culturomics” extends the boundaries of rigorous quantitative inquiry to a wide array of new phenomena spanning the social sciences and the humanities.” The entire corpus of digitised texts available for investigation is drawn from the Google Books project and includes over 5 million books, roughly four percent of all books ever published. These digitised texts, beginning from 1500 A.D. are in seven languages, including a majority in
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 415 English. Through the Ngram Viewer, users can search for a specific word or phrase, and the viewer will generate a graphic representation of how often the search item has been used over time. In all, it is a simple online tool allows anyone with a computer to plug in a string of up to five words and see a graph that charts the phrase’s use over time (Cohen, 2010). 2. The Evolution of Marketing The periodisation of the history of marketing has found different approaches by scholars. Researchers distinguish between the history of marketing ideas and the history of the marketing discipline. While the history of marketing ideas has been traced to the ancient Greeks (Dixon, 1979; Shaw, 1995) through the medieval ages (Dixon, 1980) to the present time, whereas most marketing historians agree that the marketing as a discipline can be dated only to the turn of the twentieth century (Jones & Shaw, 2002). The earliest system was the barter or reciprocity, a social system where material needs were met through exchange carried on between individuals and groups in the form of gift­giving (Bartels, 1976). This evolved into redistribution, a social system involving the assembling of goods at a point from which they are redistributed by a duly constituted authority. Householding involved production for use, not for exchange; and trade, a form of exchange which was carried on in the absence of markets. It involved prices, in the form of equivalencies, determined by treaty or administrative decision and not by behaviour in a market place. The market was the next type of social system supplying society’s material needs. Originally, the market was a local institution. It was entirely separate from the trade carried on outside the country. The market supplied the common people with daily provisions. Marketing management has evolved through the ages – from the early reciprocity systems to the production concept, sales concept, marketing concept and the modern day­societal marketing concept. 3. The Ngram Viewer Though the Ngram Viewer has its own set of limitations, it would be interesting to see if it can spot changes in trends in marketing or the origin of a certain marketing terms or phrase. The Ngram Viewer works with the frequency of words appearing across books. But there are concerns that a certain word might be used in an entirely different context to what is being researched for. Also, many words have had entirely different meanings in the past. For example, a 19 th century dictionary states that term branding meant stigmatisation or to reproach as infamous (Walters, 1828). 4.1. Markets and Trade As the Ngram Viewer covers books from 1500 A.D. onwards, earlier systems as reciprocity, redistribution and marketless trade that took place between the 10 th and 16 th centuries (Polanyi, 1957) were not included in this study. An Ngram check on the terms market and trade (Figure 1) shows that references to the two terms started getting prominence from around the 1570s. Though trade would have been an activity for centuries earlier, mentions about it in books took
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 416 off in the 1600s. A steady increase in references to the term market in the 17 th century also indicates that markets were developed during this time, which is in sync with Polanyi (1957) who wrote that this was the century when local markets developed. Figure 1: Ngram search: Market, Trade 4.2. The Production Orientation Era and the Industrial Revolution The period between the 18 th and 19 th centuries, popularly termed as Industrial Revolution, saw the UK economy transformed, losing its dependence on agriculture coupled with a dramatic increase in industrial production. During this stage businesses focussed on production as they believed that ‘supply would create its own demand’. Before the Industrial Revolution, the production and distribution of goods were on small scale. Industrialisation resulted in dramatic gains in productivity, mainly due to the development of machines. Production became more geographically concentrated and was carried out in purpose­ built mills or factories. Enterprises became larger, production runs longer and products more standardised. Firms produced in volume, not only for local markets, but for a national and even an international market. The growth of these factories resulted in migration of the population from the countryside to the new and rapidly expanding industrial towns. An Ngram search for the term production (Figure 2), confirms the above. Although there have been sporadic references to the term production in the 17 th century–most of the references were related to either agriculture or livestock related production. It was in the 18 th century that the term production saw a steady rise, which was related to growing industrialisation.
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 417 Figure 2: Ngram search: Production The industrial revolution was characterised by the growth of three sectors which allowed the economic take­off – textiles, steam power and iron making. The improved steam engine invented by James Watt and patented in 1775 was initially mainly used for pumping out mines, but from the 1780s was applied to power machines as well. The textile industry saw a boom during this period with numerous mills being set up and production soar. An Ngram search for these sectors (Figure 3) agrees with the above. Figure 3: Ngram search: steam power, textile It can be seen that references to steam power are spotted around 1800 a little after James Watt’s steam engine was invented. It was around 1810 that steam power saw a steady increase–with its use initially for pumping out water from mines, it soon was used in locomotives, furnaces and other factory appliances that were difficult to implement prior to the invention of steam power.
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 418 References to the textile industry can be seen a little after 1760, which many scholars regard as the beginning of the industrial revolution. By 1800, more and more of the textile industry were powered by steam. The industrial revolution also saw the birth of an interesting term – the entrepreneur. The period saw production far exceeding demands in local markets. In order for producers to be able to manufacture goods and services that would appeal and sell in widely dispersed markets, it became necessary for them to carefully analyse and interpret the needs and wants of customers and to manufacture products which would ‘fit in’ with those needs and wants (Lancaster, 2009). The process of matching the resources of a firm to the needs and wants of the market place is today called entrepreneurship. The age saw the rise of the entrepreneur who had the ability to ‘sense’ what the market wanted in terms of design, quality and price, then organise production and distribution to satisfy effective demand at a profit. In the Ngram search (Figure 4), it is interesting to see that the terms entrepreneur, enterpriser and businessman having almost a common starting point – between 1770 and 1775, which was during the Industrial Revolution. It was after the 1850s that entrepreneur gained popularity over enterpriser. Figure 4: Ngram search: entrepreneur, enterpriser, businessman 4.3. Branding and Trademarks While the terms brand or branding has been used for a long time in books, their usages were quite different. Early usages of branding referred to stigmatisation. In English lexicon, the word brand originally meant anything hot or burning, such as a firebrand, a burning stick. In the European Middle Ages, livestock branding came into prominence – it was the process of burning a mark into stock animals with thick hides, such as cattle, so as to identify ownership. Factories established during the Industrial Revolution introduced mass­produced goods and needed to sell their products to a wider market, to customers previously familiar only with locally­produced goods. It quickly became apparent that a generic package of soap had difficulty
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 419 competing with familiar, local products (Khan & Mufti, 2007). In the 19th century with the advent of packaged goods, industrialisation moved the production of many household items, such as soap, from local communities to centralised factories. When shipping their items, the factories would literally brand their logo or insignia on the barrels used, extending the meaning of "brand" to that of trademark. The Ngram query shows that the term branding existed for a long time (Figure 5). The term trademark too had references in the early 1800s, its popularity rose significantly between 1850 and 1860. Between In 1857 trademark laws were enacted in France while in 1862 trademark laws were enacted in the UK. In 1883, the first international trademark agreement was reached at the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property. The countries involved in this convention agreed to provide the same protections regarding marks that they provide to their own nationals. In 1876, Bass Brewery registered its Red Triangle trademark, which is regarded as the first ever registered trademark. Now famous brands Coca Cola was registered in 1887 while Quaker was registered as a trademark for oats in 1895. In the Ngram search for these brand names, it can be seen that references to all three – Red Triangle, Coca Cola and Quaker Oats started showing up around 1890­95 (Figure 6). In its early years, trademarks were used manly as "differentiators". Around 1900, J.W.Thompson, a pioneer of advertising, published a house ad explaining trademark advertising. This was an early commercial explanation of what we now know as branding (Mollerup, 1999). Figure 5: Ngram search: branding, trademark 4.4. Sales Orientation Era While in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, goods were sufficiently scarce and competition underdeveloped, marketing for most producers was considered unnecessary. The Great Depression during the 1930s resulted in huge inventories in factory and trader warehouses. It was then recognised that the focus be shifted from production to selling. Companies started
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 420 putting their sales departments under the leadership of aggressive sales managers. Advertising, personal selling and distribution became crucial functions (Agarwal, 1983). Figure 6: Ngram search: Coca Cola, Quaker Oats, Red Triangle An Ngram search for the terms sales manager and sales department (Figure 7) shows that the terms gained popularity in books a little after 1900, just when sales management and marketing was being recognised as a discipline. By the mid 1920s, both terms had peaked only to take a dip during the Great Depression. While mentions for these terms increased a bit in the late 1930s, it was after World War II ended that these terms gained rapid popularity. Figure 7: Ngram search: sales manager, sales department In an Ngram search for production management vs. sales management, (Figure 8) it can be seen that both terms had almost simultaneous origins, but production management dominated for a while during the early part of the 20 th century, before sales management overtook it in the late 1930s (around the time depression ended). In the longer run, sales management continued its rise, while production management showed a comparative decline.
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 421 Figure 8: Ngram search: production management, sales management 4.5. Marketing Orientation Era Beginning in the 1950s the emphasis shifted from production and selling to marketing ­ which is characterised by close co­ordination between product planning, product engineering, manufacturing and marketing. Instead of selling what is produced, companies started trying to find out what their customers want and produce those goods and services. With consumer demand growing more slowly than production capacity, the emergence of greater levels of consumer affluence and the transition from mass markets to multiple sub­markets, the marketing era was on its ascendancy (Fyall, 2005). This period is acknowledged as being that witnessed the introduction of 'market orientation' – a business culture focussed on the continuous creation of customer value (Narver & Slater, 1990). Figure 9: Ngram search: marketing management, sales management
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 422 The Ngram query for sales management vs. marketing management clearly brings out the picture of their relative trends (Figure 9). Though both originated around the early 1900s, sales management had a clear lead. References about marketing management showed a steep climb in the 1950s and it quickly overtook sales management in a matter of a few years. Since the 1960s, when marketing management gained popularity, it continues to dominate sales management to date. Figure 10: Ngram search: after sales service Figure 11: Ngram search: customer satisfaction, customer needs It can also be seen that terms like after sales service – a key to the marketing concept, gained prominence and spiraled after the mid­1950s (Figure 10). The usage of terms as customer satisfaction and customer needs (Figure 11) have seen a steady rise since the 1930s – which indicates that companies were increasingly focussed on meeting customer needs rather than simply selling what they manufactured. 4.6. Societal Marketing Era
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 423 The newest concept to evolve, Societal Marketing holds that the organisation’s task is to determine the needs, wants and interests of target markets and to deliver the desired satisfaction more effectively and efficiently than competitors in a way that preserves or enhances the consumers’ and the society’s well being. Earliest mentions about marketing’s social responsibilities were by William Lazer (1969) and Philip Kotler & Sidney Levy (1969). The Ngram search for societal marketing shows that the term showed up in books around 1969 and since has gained rapid popularity (Figure 12). Figure 12: Ngram search: societal marketing 5. Conclusions Though the Google Ngram Viewer is still in its very early days and the corpus includes just about 4% of all books ever published, it still throws up trends that paint a picture of the evolution of marketing in a span of five centuries. The references to various marketing terms in books and historical texts confirm what scholars working on the periodisation of marketing history have indicated. The Google Ngram tool helps in quantifying the evolution of marketing history – and shows how key trends in marketing have changed and evolved over various periods of time. Marketing has evolved over the ages in various ways – starting off from a simple reciprocity system to development of markets, to being production oriented, sales oriented, and marketing oriented to the latest trend of having a responsibility towards society. By using the Ngram Viewer and plotting the frequency of words used in books over the centuries, one can see how the various approaches to marketing have originated, risen, dominated and declined over specific periods. The Google Ngram viewer does confirm how local markets had developed in the 17 th century, that companies were highly production oriented during the industrial revolution, the rise of the sales orientation era in the 20 th century and how marketing oriented approach and the societal marketing concept dominated in the latter half of the century.
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 424 6. References 1. Agarwal, R. (1983). Organization and management: Tata McGraw­Hill. 2. Bartels, R. (1976). The history of marketing thought: Grid Pub. 3. Cohen, P. (2010). In 500 Billion Words, New Window on Culture. Retrieved January 15th, 2011, from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/17/books/17words.html 4. Dixon, D. (1979). Prejudice v. marketing? An examination of some historical sources. Akron Business and Economic Review, 2, 37­42. 5. Fyall, A., & Garrod, B. (2005). Tourism marketing: A collaborative approach: Multilingual Matters Ltd. 6. Gray, M., Team, B., Pickett, J., Hoiberg, D., Clancy, D., Norvig, P., Pinker, S. (2011). Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books. Science, 1199644(176), 331. 7. Hollander, S., Rassuli, K., Jones, D., & Dix, L. (2005). Periodization in marketing history. Journal of Macromarketing, 25(1), 32. 8. Jones, D., & Shaw, E. (2002). A history of marketing thought. Handbook of marketing, 39­65. 9. Khan, S., & Mufti, O. (2007). The Hot History & Cold Future of Brands. Journal of Managerial Sciences, 1(1), 75­87. 10. Kotler, P., & Levy, S. (1969). Broadening the concept of marketing. The Journal of Marketing, 33(1), 10­15. 11. Google Labs (2010). Google Ngram Viewer. Retrieved 10th January, 2011, from http://Ngram.googlelabs.com 12. Lancaster, G. (2009). Origins of Marketing. Retrieved January 12th, 2011, from http://www.da­ group.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=20%3Aorigins­of­ marketing 13. Lazer, W. (1969). Marketing's changing social relationships. The Journal of Marketing, 33(1), 3­9. 14. Mollerup, P. (1999). Marks of excellence: the history and taxonomy of trademarks: Phaidon Press.
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 425 15. Narver, J., & Slater, S. (1990). The effect of a market orientation on business profitability. The Journal of Marketing, 54(4), 20­35. 16. Polanyi, K. (2007). The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time. Globalization and economy, 3. 17. Shaw, E. (1995). The first dialogue on macromarketing. Journal of Macromarketing, 15(1), 7. 18. U.S. Trademark History Timeline (2008). Retrieved January 15th, 2011, from http://www.lib.utexas.edu/engin/trademark/timeline/tmindex.html 19. Walters, J. (1828). An English and Welsh Dictionary: T. Gee. Biographical Notes 1. Dr .Nitu Kumar has received her Ph.D. in Marketing Management from Nagpur University. She is currently a faculty at Dr.Ambedkar Institute of Management Studies and Research, Nagpur. She has 11 years of industrial/academic experience along with three years of research work. Her areas of interest are marketing to children and ethical marketing. Email: dr.nitukumar@gmail.com 2. Manish Sahu has received his MBA degree from Nagpur University. He is currently an independent online marketing consultant and researcher. He has 15 years of experience in variety of fields like advertising, marketing strategy and online marketing. Email: indusideas@gmail.com
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