JFO/jm; Revised April 16, 2015
The attached charts compare Vermont State spending to gross state product (GSP), adjusted gross income (AGI), and
personal income.
1. All numbers beyond FY 13 are estimates.
 Projected growth rates for GSP are consensus estimates but are higher than alternative source estimates.
 For example, CBO projects real GDP growth of 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent for 2015 and 2016. The consensus forecast
for Vermont shows real GSP growth of 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent. Using the lower growth rates would bring the share
of spending closer to flat rather than declining in 2015 and 2016.
 The spending projections do not include spending for clean water or health care, bills that have not yet been approved but
could change the numbers. Nor do the projections include final true-up of spending in the FY 2015 budget adjustment.
2. The particular years used reflect a unique period of economic activity. This period includes the Great Recession, yet state
spending as a share of GSP was relatively stable. The relationship could change in the future.
3. The comparisons of spending to GSP and income were done in response to a request. The nonpartisan Joint Fiscal Office does
not advocate using the comparisons to justify or challenge spending decisions. How one interprets the ratio of state spending to GSP is
largely a political choice.
4. GSP is not equally distributed among people in Vermont. State spending affects people at different income levels differently,
and the burden of raising revenue affects people at different income levels differently. As income inequality increases in Vermont,
who benefits from spending and who bears the tax burden is changing over time.
5. The level and trend of the ratio of federal spending to U.S. GDP is commonly cited by people who want both more and less
federal spending. No conclusion can be drawn without weighing both political and economic factors about the effectiveness and
desirability of spending (see chart).
U.S. Federal Spending as a Share of
U.S. GDP, 2007 - 2016
25
20
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
VT LEG #308175 v.1
JFO/jm; Revised April 16, 2015
Data Sources and Definitions
Vermont state spending includes federal ARRA funds for FMAP in FY09-FY11 but no other federal funds
http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/appropriations/5%20Year%20Approps%20Summ%20FY11-FY16%20.pdf
FY2007-FY2014: actual appropriations
FY2015: Rescission and BAA
FY2016: As passed by the House Appropriations Committee; excludes health care bill and water quality bill
Vermont GSP
Gross state product is a measurement of the economic output of a state equal to the sum of all value added by industries within the
state.
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=3#reqid=70&step=26&isuri=1&7022=36&7023=0&7024=
non-industry&7025=0&7001=336&7029=36&7090=70&7031=0
FY2007-FY2013: Quarterly Vermont GSP from BEA
FY2014-FY2016: Consensus estimates (January 2015) for projected growth; Revised on April 16, 2015, to correct an error.
Vermont AGI
Vermont adjusted gross income is the sum of individual gross income minus specific deductions for Vermont resident tax filers.
http://www.state.vt.us/tax/statisticsincome.shtml, various years
FY2007-FY2013: Vermont Department of Taxes, State Total AGI
FY2014-FY2016: JFO estimate of AGI growth uses the Vermont Consensus estimates (January 2015) for projected growth in
personal income
Vermont Personal Income
Personal income, sometimes called gross income, is defined as total compensation received by an individual from salaries, wages, and
bonuses; dividends and distributions received from investments, rental receipts from real estate investments; profit-sharing from a
business, and other sources.
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=3#reqid=70&step=26&isuri=1&7022=36&7023=0&7024=
non-industry&7025=0&7001=336&7029=36&7090=70&7031=0
FY2007-FY2013: Quarterly Vermont Personal Income from BEA
FY2014-FY2016: Consensus estimates (January 2015) for projected growth in Vermont personal income
Consensus estimates of growth in GSP and AGI from “January 2015 Economic Review and Revenue Forecast Update”
http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/state_forecasts/2015-01%20January%20Forecast.pdf
VT LEG #308175 v.1
JFO/jm; Revised April 16, 2015
$35
$30
Gross State Product compared to All State Funds including Net EF
FY07 - FY16 ($ billions)
Est.
Est.
Est.
GSP estimates and State spending shares in
FY14-FY16 revised on April 16, 2015
$25
$20
$15
24.47
25.16
27.08
25.85
25.14
28.90
28.11
32.70
31.02
29.90
$10
$5
11.5%
2.82
11.3%
2.84
11.3%
2.84
11.0%
2.83
10.9%
2.95
11.0%
3.10
11.3%
3.26
11.4%
3.41
11.2%
3.49
11.0%
3.61
$0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
GSP, Consensus growth
FY12
FY13
FY14
All State Funds w/ net EF
FY15
FY16
VT LEG #308175 v.1
JFO/jm; Revised April 16, 2015
In-State AGI compared to All State Funds including Net EF
FY07 - FY16 ($ billions)
$25
Est.
$20
Est.
Est
$15
$10
15.57
16.40
15.36
16.21
17.44
16.85
16.05
19.74
18.76
17.96
$5
17.4%
17.3%
2.82
2.84
18.3%
2.84
18.4%
2.83
18.4%
2.95
18.4%
18.7%
3.10
3.26
19.0%
18.6%
18.3%
3.41
3.49
3.61
$0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
In-state AGI, JFO estimate
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
State spending w/ net EF
VT LEG #308175 v.1
JFO/jm; Revised April 16, 2015
Personal Income Compared to All State Funds including Net EF
FY07 - FY16 (billions $)
$35
Est.
Est.
$30
Est.
$25
$20
$15
23.52
27.40
26.02
24.67
24.88
24.79
31.98
30.39
29.09
28.15
$10
$5
12.0%
11.5%
11.4%
2.82
2.84
2.84
11.4%
2.83
11.4%
11.3%
11.6%
11.7%
11.5%
11.3%
2.95
3.10
3.26
3.41
3.49
3.61
$0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Personal Income, Consensus growth
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
All State Funds w/ net EF
VT LEG #308175 v.1