INTERNET SOCIETY
GLOBAL INTERNET REPORT 2015
MOBILE EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERNET
Contents
P4
FOREWORD
P6
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
P14
AUTHOR’S NOTES AND
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
P18
INTRODUCTION
P40
MOBILE INTERNET:
TRENDS AND GROWTH
P68
BENEFITS OF THE
MOBILE INTERNET
4
P92
CHALLENGES OF
THE MOBILE INTERNET
5
P124
RECOMMENDATIONS
1
2
3
Foreword
4
The Internet Society’s mission is the Internet for everyone. Today
there are more than 3 billion people online, and mobile access to the
Internet will be instrumental in bringing the next billion people online.
Mobile phone service, which is now available to more than 90% of
the global population, represented a significant leap-frog in countries
where there was no fixed service before, and it was adopted at a
breathtaking rate. Upgrading networks to offer mobile Internet is
an incremental step that is being adopted even faster than mobile
telephony before it.
Accessing the mobile Internet is not just a matter of unplugging our
laptops, however – we use smartphones and tablets with a range
of features and sensors not available or needed in a traditional
computer. These enable us to take and share videos; learn a trade
and improve our livelihoods; help with our fitness and personal safety;
and contribute to countless other activities. These new features are
accessed through apps, not browsers, which is evolving how people
use the Internet.
I am pleased to launch this second annual Global Internet Report,
which continues to provide integrated analysis and reporting, with
a focus this year on the mobile Internet. The report explores mobile
Internet availability, affordability, and relevance to potential users, and
highlights opportunities as well as challenges to ensure all users can
enjoy the full benefits of mobile access to the open Internet.
I commend our Chief Economist, Michael Kende, for his vision and
expertise in developing this report, and thank all the contributors who
shared their time and insights.
We hope that this Global Internet Report series continues to contribute
to the progress of Internet development.
Kathy Brown
President and CEO
Global Internet Report 2015
5
Executive
Summary
6
Introduction
We focus this year’s report on the mobile Internet for two reasons. First,
as with mobile telephony, the mobile Internet does not just liberate us
from the constraints of a wired connection, but it offers hundreds of
millions around the world their only, or primary, means of accessing the
Internet. Second, the mobile Internet does not just extend the reach of
the Internet as used on fixed connections, but it offers new functionality
in combination with new portable smart devices.
The benefits of the mobile Internet should not come at the expense of
the founding principles of the Internet that led to its success. The nature
of the Internet should remain collaborative and inclusive, regardless
of changing means of access. In particular, the mobile Internet should
remain open, to enable the permission-less innovation that has driven
the continuous growth and evolution of the Internet to date, including the
emergence of the mobile Internet itself.
Mobile voice technology was introduced in the 1980s and quickly
upended traditional telephony around the world. Two major milestones
of the last decade have multiplied the impact of mobile technology and
shaped the mobile Internet of today.
The introduction of Internet access to
traditional 2G mobile voice technologies in
mid-2000, and then moving through 3G and
now 4G technologies that are faster and
have greater data capacity.
The introduction of smart devices starting
with the iPhone in 2007, a new type of
portable computer with a number of
advanced features such as locationawareness, which are accessible through
apps distributed through online stores.
Global Internet Report 2015
7
For the purposes of this report, we define the mobile Internet as fully
mobile access to the Internet using smart devices.
Full
Mobility
Smart
device
+
=
Mobile
Internet
This mix provides significant benefits to users, many of which are readily
apparent, others of which we can still only imagine. We highlight two
benefits here.
First, it is clear that the mobile Internet will play a key role in bringing the
next billion users online. Mobile Internet has already leap-frogged fixed
access in many countries because of limitations in the coverage of the
fixed network, and the availability of mobile Internet access significantly
outpaces adoption today. The mobile Internet is therefore central to
realising the Internet Society vision that ‘The Internet is for everyone’.
8
Smart
device
Evolution
Full
Mobility
Development
Further benefits of the mobile Internet are arising from new innovative
services based on mobile access to the Internet, using all the features
embedded into the smart devices, and accessed through apps. These
services enable social inclusion, interaction with government, and
commerce, among other applications. These innovations are already
driving a further evolution of the Internet that has been in a state of
constant change since its founding.
Trends and Growth
WE ALWAYS OVERESTIMATE THE CHANGE THAT
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS AND
UNDERESTIMATE THE CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR
IN THE NEXT TEN. DON’T LET YOURSELF BE
LULLED INTO INACTION.
Bill Gates
Nowhere can this quote be more true than with respect to the rise of the
mobile Internet. Ten years ago, fixed broadband had just surpassed dialup as the main form of Internet access; one billion users accessed the
Internet, the majority from developed countries; and it would be another
two years before the iPhone was launched and four years before the first
4G network was deployed.
Today, the changes that have taken place would have been hard to
fathom ten years ago. We highlight a few key statistics and trends:
•
3 billion Internet users were likely by May 2015.
•
Mobile Internet penetration is forecast to reach 71% by 2019.
•
Usage per device is forecast to more than triple by 2019.
•
192 countries have active 3G mobile networks, which cover almost
50% of the global population.
•
Smartphone sales are the majority of mobile handsets sold worldwide;
tablet sales will soon exceed total PC sales.
•
While there are at least five mobile platforms, Android has an 84%
share of smartphones, and 72% of tablets.
•
There are well over 1 million apps available, which have been
downloaded more than 100 billion times.
•
Time spent using apps exceeds time spent on mobile browsers,
and in the US, at least, exceeds time spent on desktop and mobile
browsers combined.
Global Internet Report 2015
9
Benefits of
the Mobile Internet
These apps, taking advantage of the advanced features of smart devices
and the full mobility of users, have provided benefits in every part of our
lives:
•
Entrepreneurs have created billion dollar opportunities developing
and selling apps worldwide.
•
Users’ livelihoods can be enhanced as farmers, fishers, and others
use apps to increase their output and earnings.
•
Opportunities abound for general education, and to help learn a trade
through the mobile Internet.
•
Users with disabilities can rely on mobile services to communicate,
work, and shop, among other activities.
•
Governments are increasingly using the mobile Internet to
communicate with their citizens and make information available.
•
A variety of mobile healthcare applications are emerging for users to
track their own fitness or enable remote diagnostics.
•
Smart devices can be used to send automatic alerts when the user’s
personal security is in danger.
•
As with many new electronic devices, the mobile Internet is used for
entertainment, including watching video and playing games.
•
The sensors in smart devices, including not just location, but also
barometers, accelerometers, and others, enable them to be a part of
the emerging Internet of Things.
•
Governments are beginning to use mobile networks to create smart
cities that deliver infrastructure and communications more efficiently.
Challenges of
the Mobile Internet
The benefits of the mobile Internet bring their own challenges, however.
For instance, many of us rely on our phones to help us navigate an
unfamiliar city, suggest restaurants in the area, summon a taxi, or find
10
constellations in the night sky. However, many of us also are surprised
when confronted with the resulting data on our location and movements
that is stored and shared among a variety of companies involved in
providing location-based services. The same is true for other types of
personal, and possibility sensitive data available through our smart
devices.
The privacy concerns are heightened by security risks, as we put valuable
personal data on our smart devices where they may be accessed by
others. The installation of apps brings risks similar to installing any
software on any computer, although app stores are able to screen for
malware to protect customers. On the other hand, the app economy
may limit our choices of platforms, where today the leading platform
commands a market share of 84% of all smartphones sold and new
platforms have difficulty building up a base of customers and apps.
Nonetheless, there is no question that the number of users, and the
amount of their usage, will continue to grow, and the spectrum needed
to increase the growth in users and usage must be made available at the
national and international level. Further, to help the next billion get online,
many of whose entry point will be the mobile Internet, services must be
available, affordable, and locally relevant.
These challenges are summarized in the table below
EVOLUTION
1
2
3
Smart devices enable services such as location
awareness and include features such as
cameras; the flip side of the coin is increased
privacy issues
Usage of the mobile Internet depends on a
number of wireless interfaces and access to
apps; these lead to heightened security issues
Apps provide convenient access to the
advanced features of the phone such as the
GPS or camera; but app stores create costs
for developers and customers and may limit
competition
Global Internet Report 2015
11
DEVELOPMENT
4
More users are doing more with the mobile
Internet; is there enough spectrum available?
5
Mobile Internet is the way the next billion are
going to get online; will this close the digital
divide?
Recommendations
Each of the challenges identified can be overcome, through the actions of
all stakeholders working in combination, as follows.
EVOLUTION
1
Privacy: It is important to ensure that users have
the ability to provide privacy permissions in a way
that is simple to understand and implement.
2
Security: We should implement a Collaborative
Security approach to mobile security, with all
players in the ecosystem playing a role in this effort.
3
12
App challenges: We encourage multi-stakeholder
support for the Open Web Platform, as a way
to increase platform choices for users that is
consistent with our OpenStand principles.
DEVELOPMENT
4
5
Spectrum: Policymakers must ensure that
sufficient spectrum is available to meet new
demand and ensure that congestion does not
throttle demand.
Digital Divide: Policymakers should ensure that
the mobile Internet is available throughout their
countries; affordable without undue costs; and
relevant to users based on language and content.
Conclusion
As we look forward on the challenges that must be met to increase the
benefits of the mobile Internet for all, we should be mindful of both parts
of Bill Gates’ quote above; not just that we would have underestimated
the change that took place in the past ten years, but that we may
overestimate the change that can take place in the next two.
As a result, as we collectively celebrate the changes that have taken
place over the past ten years, we should also work hard, together, to
make sure that the challenges we have identified are met in order that
existing and new users enjoy a mobile Internet that is private and secure,
with easy choice between platforms new and old, and that it is available,
affordable, and relevant to all users everywhere.
Global Internet Report 2015
13
Author’s Notes and
Acknowledgements
It is a great pleasure to introduce the second annual Global Internet Report
covering the mobile Internet. This report is similar in many ways to the first
one, containing key data and trends, highlighting challenges, and making
recommendations. In order to make it more accessible, it is now available as
an online version, and we are very pleased to be able to launch it directly to
our members during our first InterCommunity global meeting.
The mobile Internet is of interest partly because it represents an evolution
in the Internet. Where Internet access is largely independent of our PC, our
operating system, and our browser, we associate the mobile Internet with our
smartphone or tablet; in turn, we associate our smart device with a specific
platform, consisting of an operating system and app store; and we largely
associate our usage with the apps that we have chosen.
One consequence of this is that the mobile Internet has introduced the
concept of a new upgrade cycle to the Internet. We now anticipate, or may be
surprised by, new features that are added to the phone or operating system
that enable apps to do new things, and it is not unheard of for long queues to
form outside stores to be among the first to have a new phone. We can thus
put our finger on the day that selfies became possible, with the introduction
of forward-facing cameras, or new payment systems were enabled with the
introduction of near-field communications, leading to whole new uses of the
mobile Internet.
The mobile Internet is also characterized by leap-frogging. Where mobile
phones surpassed fixed telephony in developing countries at a rate much
faster than most anticipated, the mobile Internet, building on the existing
mobile infrastructure, is growing even faster. This, alone, is worth celebrating
– but ultimately, it is the services enabled by the mobile Internet, helping
farmers grow their crops, entrepreneurs find a market, and people with
disabilities gain accessibility, that truly mark the impact of the mobile Internet,
particularly in regions where there were few offline alternatives.
14
This report examines the evolution of the mobile Internet and the impact on
development as two parts of the mobile Internet story. In the online version,
the evolution and the development parts can be navigated separately, to
make the report yet more accessible. Online it can also be easily shared,
and we invite you to do so to help spread the word.
Finally, the report covers a wide span of issues – some, such as security
and development, are long-standing Internet Society issues, while others,
such as spectrum issues, are specific to the mobile Internet. With respect to
the former, we only focus on the new issues raised in the mobile context, in
keeping with our focus on the mobile Internet.
The list of contributors to the report is long and distinguished.
At the Internet Society, I would like to thank Bob Hinden, Kathy Brown, and
Sally Wentworth for their leadership and input; and the Global Internet Report
working group for their input throughout the process, consisting of Dawit
Bekele, Jane Coffin, Mat Ford, Raquel Gatto, Lia Kiessling, Olaf Kolkman,
Konstantinos Komaitis, Karen Mulberry, Steve Olshansky, Vyria Paselk,
Andrei Robachevsky, Karen Rose, Christine Runnegar, Nicolas Seidler,
Rajnesh Singh, Robin Wilton, Dan York, and Fernando Zarur. I would also
like to thank my colleagues Nicole Armstrong, Wende Cover, Joyce Dogniez,
Graham Minton, Ted Mooney, Jairus Pryor, and James Wood for their input
and help in preparing the report and launch.
I would also like to thank the Internet Society Chapter Leaders who provided
insights and advice on their regional calls, notably Gunela Astbrink on
accessibility issues, along with members of the Internet Society Joint Policy
Action Team of the Advisory Council.
Valuable inputs came from the broader Internet community, including Russ
Housley (Vigil Security, LLC), Richard Barnes (Mozilla), Mark Nottingham
(Akamai Technologies), Christoph Steck, Gonzalo Lopez-Barajas Huder, and
Miguel Schneider (Telefónica), Jeff Jaffe, Daniel Dardailler, Wendy Seltzer,
and Dominique Hazaël-Massieux (World Wide Web Consortium), Colin
McElwee (Worldreader), and Gour Lentell (biNu).
Finally, thanks to Mark Colville, Alex Reichl, David Abecassis and Valérie
Gualde of Analysys Mason for their research and analysis, and also Internet
Society interns Daniela Pokorna and Victoria Situ. Special thanks to Phillippa
Biggs of the ITU for her peer review of the entire report. Finally, thanks to
Blossom Communications for their beautiful design and development of
the printed and online versions of the report. The Internet Society would
like to thank TeliaSonera for their sponsorship of the work of Blossom
Communications.
Michael Kende
Chief Economist
Global Internet Report 2015
15
TIMELINE OF MILESTONES IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MOBILE INTERNET
2000
2008
2010
Dec
4G
launch
GPRS
Introduction
2001
Jul
App Store
Introduction
3G
Oct
APP
launch
Jun
iPhone
Introduction
Oct
Windows Phone
Introduction
Apr
BlackBerry
App Store
Introduction
Oct
Android
Market
Mobile
broadband
Introduction
Dec
2007
16
2009
more than 50%
of access in
developing
countries
2011
2012
2014
Sep
More
smartphones than
non-smartphones
sold worldwide
Oct
App usage
May
more than
50% of online
usage on a
smartphone
Jun
Aug
Jul
More tablets than
laptops sold
More tablets
sold than total
PCs
75 billion
iOS downloads
total
Jun
More than
half of online time
was on mobile
apps in the USA
Sep
More
smartphones than
non-smartphones
sold in developing
countries
50 billion
Google Play
downloads
total
Apr
Firefox OS
May
3 billion
users
Introduction
2013
2015
Global Internet Report 2015
17
Section 1
Introduction
DEVELOPMENT BASED
ON FULL MOBILITY
EVOLUTION BASED
ON SMART DEVICES
THE MOBILE
INTERNET
18
The mobile
Internet should
remain open
1980
We focus this year’s report on the mobile Internet for two reasons. First,
as with mobile telephony, the mobile Internet does not just liberate us
from the constraints of a wired connection, but it offers hundreds of
millions around the world their only, or primary, means of accessing the
Internet. Second, the mobile Internet does not just extend the reach of
the Internet as used on fixed connections, but it offers new functionality
in combination with new portable access devices.
The benefits of the mobile Internet should not come at the expense of
the founding principles of the Internet that led to its success. The nature
of the Internet should remain collaborative and inclusive, regardless
of changing means of access. In particular, the mobile Internet should
remain open, to enable the permission-less1 innovation that has driven
the continuous growth and evolution of the Internet to date, including the
emergence of the mobile Internet itself.
Mobile voice technology was introduced in the 1980s and quickly
upended traditional telephony around the world. Two major milestones
of the last decade have multiplied the impact of mobile technology and
shaped the mobile Internet of today.
The introduction of Internet access to
traditional mobile voice technologies
The introduction of smart devices in place
of more traditional mobile phones
For more detail, please see http://www.internetsociety.org/blog/tech-matters/2014/04/
permissionlessinnovation-openness-not-anarchy.
1
Global Internet Report 2015
19
Internet Invariants
It is important that the benefits of the mobile Internet are not achieved at the expense of
the fundamental principles of the Internet. The Internet has seen significant change since it
was established as a research network more than forty years ago, in terms of both network
technology and services offered, including the rise of the mobile Internet that is at the heart
of this report. In the light of those considerations, it is important to understand what is
actually important and unchanging about the Internet – the invariants that have been true
to date – and that should continue to apply to the mobile Internet.2
The Internet has global
reach and integrity, and is
not constrained in terms
of supported services and
applications
The Internet is for
everyone – there is no
central authority that
designates or permits
different classes of
Internet activities
The Internet requires some
basic agreements and
social behaviour – between
technologies and between
humans
Although no specific
technology defines the
Internet, there are some
basic characteristics that
describe what works
And, finally, the more the
Internet stays the same,
the more it changes
For more detail, please see http://www.internetsociety.org/sites/default/files/Internet%20Invariants-%20
What%20Really%20Matters.pdf.
2
20
Introduction of Internet
access to traditional mobile
voice technology
mid -2000
The first milestone in the development of the mobile Internet is the
introduction of the General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) in mid-2000.
GPRS added Internet access to the existing second-generation (2G) GSM
mobile voice service. For this reason, GPRS is often referred to as 2.5G
technology. While GPRS is very slow by today’s standards, it is packetswitched and thus provides always-on access to the Internet, albeit
originally over traditional feature phones.
This is the Nokia 3510, the first
mass-market GPRS phone, which
had a 96x65 pixel screen
GPRS
At its introduction, GPRS offered speeds at the same level as a
dial-up modem, that is under 56kbit/s. While GPRS speeds are
now greater, more importantly GPRS paved the way for EDGE,
3G, 4G, and beyond. These more recent technologies allow for
faster download (and upload speeds) but also mean that data
capacity is more likely to be available to users, and at lower
latency. For example, setting up a data connection with EDGE
takes much longer than on a 3G or 4G network, and voice traffic
tends to have priority to a greater extent than in 3G and 4G
networks.
FEATURE PHONES
Feature phones are the precursors to today’s smartphones,
which, along with other smart devices, are the focus of this
report. In particular, they are distinguished by small screens and
phone keyboards. This has the impact of increasing the level of
effort required from users to input data (having to tap out letters
using the numeric keyboard) and also limiting the output that
could be received to a few short lines of text on a small screen.
Global Internet Report 2015
21
Mobile technologies
Mobile technologies have been evolving throughout the years, with each new release
acting as a step towards improved performance and reduced cost.
1980
1G
1990
2G
First-generation wireless analogue
cellular communications standard;
analogue radios, poor voice quality,
low security, limited data services
Second-generation wireless digital
cellular communications standard;
digital radios, improved speech quality,
encrypted transmission, data services
— Speeds of up to 153.6kbit/s
2000
3G
Third-generation wireless digital
technology standards; offers faster
data rates, allowing a wider range of
products and services to be delivered
— Speeds of up to 56Mbit/s
2010
4G
Fourth-generation wireless digital
technology standards for mobile
phones and data terminals
— Speeds of up to 1Gbit/s
Start of Standards Development
Commercial System Launch
2G/3G
22
are widely
available
4G
networks are currently available
in 102 countries, although with
limited coverage
Our focus in this report will be on networks that offer full mobility, such as
the evolution of technologies provided above. This does not downplay
the general benefits of wireless access using technologies such as Wi-Fi
accessed through a wide variety of devices including laptop computers.
Such access has a myriad of benefits, cutting us loose from our desks,
extending our productivity, even allowing in-flight access to the Internet for
those who want that.
However, such access is not the same as full mobility – it is typically an
extension of our existing access. For instance, Wi-Fi is often linked to
a fixed connection to provide limited mobility and/or to offload mobile
network traffic. This does not offer the possibility of accessing the Internet
everywhere, as with full mobility; and it does not fundamentally change the
nature of the services available over the Internet as with a smartphone.
Other technologies exist or are being developed for mobile Internet access,
including Wi-Max and white spaces, while new forms of extending the
mobile network are being explored, including high-altitude balloon, drone,
or new satellite systems.
Wi-Fi
There are some examples of the use of Wi-Fi as a network, rather than an
extension.
Wireless@SG is a national Wi-Fi network in Singapore developed by a
consortium of operators led by the IDA (Infocomm Development Authority of
Singapore) and launched in 2006. Any user of a Wi-Fi enabled device with
a registered Wireless@SG account (acquired via registration online or at a
customer service centre) can connect to the network. The network offers speeds
of up to 2Mbit/s at 1950 hotspots.3
Innovative Wi-Fi-first networks are also being deployed, such as those of
Republic Wireless and FreedomPop in San Francisco. These prioritise carrying
traffic via strategically placed Wi-Fi routers. It is only when there are no routers
available that traffic falls back on the traditional cellular network.4 Wi-Fi operates
over license-exempt spectrum.
WI-MAX
Wi-Max networks are deployed using high frequency licensed spectrum over
Wi-Max base stations to provide speeds of up to 1Gbit/s to support mobile, nomadic
and fixed wireless applications, which require Wi-Max5-compatible devices. Wi-Max
has more than 455 networks deployed in 135 countries.6
WHITE
SPACE
White space technology makes use of the unused spectrum in bands allocated to
broadcasting services, for example those chunks of spectrum left open as buffers
between digital TV channels to avoid interference or in geographic areas where
the spectrum is not being used for broadcasting. Opening up this white space
spectrum to lower-powered devices provides more wireless spectrum for data
transmission to support a large range of services and devices. This is a relatively
new technology without large scale deployment to date. White space technology
would operate using license-shared spectrum.
See http://www.ida.gov.sg/Individuals-and-Community/Infocomm-You/Wireless-SG
See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/technology/small-phone-companies-use-wi-fi-to-punch-abovetheir-weight.html?_r=0
5
See http://resources.wimaxforum.org/sites/wimaxforum.org/files/wimax_in_india_protiviti_paper_0.pdf
6
http://www.networkworld.com/article/2883162/wireless/major-phone-network-exploring-drone-andballoon-masts.html
3
4
Global Internet Report 2015
23
SATELLITES
Satellites can also be used to deliver communications services (voice or data,
one- or two-way) to mobile users such as cars, trucks, ships, and planes. Such
systems are likely interconnected with traditional land-based cellular networks.
BALLOONS
AND
DRONES
Small aerial cells positioned in the sky in tethered balloons or drones over hardto-reach, patchy signal areas are being considered as a method of boosting
coverage and signal strength in such areas.7 UK mobile operator EE is proposing
the introduction of such micro-base stations in 1500 UK communities not
currently served by reliable mobile data networks. Unlike Wi-Max, white space
and satellite, services provided using balloons or drones will be designed to work
with users’ existing mobile devices.
The introduction of smart
devices in place of more
traditional mobile phones
June
2007
The second milestone paving the way for the introduction of the mobile
Internet was the release of the Apple iPhone, in June 2007. Although this
was not the first mass-market smartphone, the iPhone had the ability
to input with a full keyboard and finger gestures using a multitouch
touchscreen which also conveyed full color output. This allowed users
the ability to use a browser in a similar way as on a traditional personal
computer, and the iPhone also created the path for applications
(commonly referred to as apps).
http://www.networkworld.com/article/2883162/wireless/major-phone-network-exploring-drone-andballoon-masts.html.
7
24
SMART DEVICE
In retrospect, the iPhone created a new category, the smart
device, which one could define as handsets or tablets that have
the characteristics of a PC, including advanced multimedia
capabilities and the ability for the consumer to install third-party
software on it.
Smart devices include smartphones, which combine Internet
access and telephony in a pocket-sized form, as well as tablets,
which are larger than smartphones, to enhance viewing and
interaction, but do not have mobile telephony incorporated. More
recently, larger smartphones have been introduced, as well as
smaller tablets, with the dividing line being the inclusion of mobile
telephony.
FINGER GESTURES
The use of finger gestures enables mobile users to overcome
the “bottleneck” in computer literacy that comes from requiring
the use of traditional interfaces, such as keyboards and mice.
This in particular can have uses in enabling disabled access, for
example with sign language translation and hand-gesture based
wheelchair movement control.
APPLICATIONS
Mobile applications are computer programs that are
downloaded to smart devices and operated through an icon that
is put on the smart device screen. They are usually available
through online applications distribution portals, or app stores,
which are typically operated by the developer of the mobile
operating system (mobile OS), such as Apple or Google. Many
apps can operate offline, interacting with the Internet at varying
intervals; others are based on continual real-time interaction.
Such apps, designed for a particular OS and available from a
particular app store, are often called native apps.
Native apps differ from HTML5 web apps which, while also
accessed via an on-screen icon, run in a web browser and are
limited by the browser capability. See Section 5 for more details.
Global Internet Report 2015
25
MOBILE OS
A mobile operating system, also referred to as a mobile OS,
is software that operates a smart device, tablet, PDA, or other
mobile device, managing hardware and software resources
and providing common services for programs. Modern mobile
operating systems combine the features of a personal computer
operating system with other smart device functions, including
a touchscreen, cellular, GPS mobile navigation, camera, voice
recorder and music player.
APP STORES
App stores are online digital distribution platforms from which
mobile applications can be downloaded. The different stores
provide apps designed to run on specific devices, and written
for a specific operating system. Some, such as the Apple App
Store, are offered by the same company as the mobile OS;
others, such as Amazon function as third-party stores.
July
2008
The first iPhone was introduced with applications. However, these preloaded apps were all developed by Apple until the introduction of the Apple
App Store in July 2008. Mobile apps are hugely popular and a May 2012
comScore study reported that during the previous quarter, the proportion
of mobile subscribers using apps exceeded that browsing the web on their
devices for the first time, in the United States.8 As discussed below, apps
are not just a convenient way to interact with the smart device, similar to a
software program on a computer, but rather they enable users to access
the full-range of features on the smart device.
We were not able to find similar studies for other countries, but there is no reason to believe that this
trend is limited to the US.
8
26
Smart device features
The smart device combines many formerly separate devices into one; enabling an
amazing range of functionality.
A reporter recently came across a Radio Shack advertisement from 1991, promoting a wide range of
electronic devices, including a CD player, camcorder, and early mobile phone. The reporter noted that
13 of the devices advertised were replaced by the functionality of his iPhone, and noted that in 1991
those 13 devices would have cost USD 3,054.82 (equivalent to USD 5,361.04 in 2015).9
Dictaphone
MP3 Player
Camera
Watch/Alarm
clock
GPS
Storage
Television
Flashlight
Smartphone
Tablet
Mobile gaming
device
Calculator
Laptop
Compass
Personal Digital
Assistant
“Everything from 1991 Radio Shack ad I now do with my phone,” Steve Cichon, January 14, 2014, Trending Buffalo. See http://www.trendingbuffalo.com/
life/uncle-stevesbuffalo/everything-from-1991-radio-shack-ad-now/. Radio Shack is an American electronics retail chain that recently went bankrupt, likely
not helped by the implications of calculations such as this one.
9
Global Internet Report 2015
27
Smart device hardware features
A smart device, at heart, is a small but powerful computer, with many of the
same features as a larger laptop in a more portable version.
SMARTPHONE
LAPTOP
TABLET
These features include significant amounts of storage, a fast processor, the
ability to input based on a keyboard or voice, a high-quality screen, and a
variety of communications options. For more details, please see the Annex
at the end of this section.
A smart device
has many new senses
In addition to its personal computer functionality, a significant number
of features are included in a smart device that are not included in a
traditional laptop computer. These include sensors that measure the
environment and the motion and position of the smart device. We note in
particular that these features provide detailed information on the user’s
location, which is used in many location-based services that feature
throughout this report. For more details on the sensors in a phone,
including location technology, please see the Annex below.
28
The full hardware features of smart devices can only be accessed through
native apps.
A smart device’s mobile OS is used as a conduit through which the
hardware, including its sensors, speakers and camera, are accessible.
However, the related Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), a set of
building blocks for developing software applications, are traditionally only
accessible to developers through native apps. Traditionally these APIs are
not fully accessible to websites, meaning that web pages accessed via
a web browser can use less of the smartphone’s hardware features than
those accessed via a specially developed App.
However, mobile web browsers are getting increasingly good at accessing
certain mobile-specific functions such as click-to-call, SMS and GPS,
with developments such as WebRTC allowing browser-based services
to access phone and camera resources. Nonetheless, this still does not
provide the same capabilities as are available through the use of native
apps and therefore there is still a limit to the capabilities of browser-based
services using HTML5.
The Mobile Internet
For the purposes of this report, we define the mobile Internet as fully
mobile access to the Internet using smart devices.
Full
Mobility
Smart
device
+
=
Mobile
Internet
This mix provides significant benefits to users, many of which are readily
apparent, others of which we can only imagine. We highlight two benefits
here.
First, it is clear that the mobile Internet will play a key role in bringing the
next billion users online. Mobile has already leap-frogged fixed access in
many countries because of limitations in the coverage of the fixed network
– as we show in Section 2, mobile network coverage is already extensive in
many countries, with the result that the availability of mobile Internet access
outpaces adoption. The mobile Internet is therefore central to realising the
Internet Society vision that ‘The Internet is for everyone’.10
10
See http://www.internetsociety.org/who-we-are/mission.
Global Internet Report 2015
29
Further benefits of the mobile Internet are arising from new innovative
services based on mobile access to the Internet using all the features
embedded into the smart devices, and accessed through application usage.
These services enable social inclusion, interaction with government, and
commerce, among other applications, and we highlight these further in
Section 3. These innovations are already driving a further evolution of the
Internet that has been in a state of constant change since its founding.
Leap-frogging
Mobile phones have long since leap-frogged fixed phone
connections in developing countries. By December 2010, mobile
broadband exceeded fixed Internet connections in developing
countries.
Further, smartphone shipments exceeded 50% of all mobile handset
shipments in developing countries by September 2014.
Application
usage
Apps are likely to be the predominant mode of access to the mobile
Internet for most users, in part because they enable access to the
full features of the smart devices.
For example, by 2014, 86% of users’ time on mobile devices in the
US was spent on apps (the remaining 14% on the mobile web).11
Consumers in Q4 2013 used an average of 26.8 apps, spending 30
hours and 15 minutes on them a month.12
In the US at least, mobile apps are now the predominant mode of
accessing the Internet.
14%
Mobile Web
4%
YouTube Apps
4%
Productivity Apps
Source: Flurry Insights, 2014
32%
Gaming Apps
4%
Other entertainment
Apps
3%
News Apps
28%
Social Networking Apps
8%
Utilities Apps
3%
Other Apps
See http://www.flurry.com/bid/109749/Apps-Solidify-Leadership-Six-Years-into-the-Mobile-Revolution#.
VM-EmbmzWM8.
See http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/01/an-upper-limit-for-apps-new-data-suggests-consumers-only-usearound-two-dozen-apps-per-month/.
11
12
30
Conclusion
The impact of the mobile Internet goes well beyond simply unplugging our
traditional access to the Internet. It is not simply providing app icons that
we can use for convenience instead of using a website from a browser.
These changes, alone, have extended access and usability far beyond
what it was just ten years ago. However, the mobile Internet is defined by
use of a smart device in addition to the lack of a wire; by the functionality
of the apps as well as their convenience.
We want to stress, though, that the mobile Internet involves the interaction
of these smart devices with the Internet, and not just the functionality
of the smart devices themselves. One way to picture this is to subject
services and applications to what might be called the ‘airplane mode’ test.
AIRPLANE
MODE
In airplane mode, a smart device turns off all of its wireless communications,
including the connection to the mobile network and Wi-Fi, to avoid interfering with
airplane avionics. As a result, the device can be used as a portable computer,
with all of its processing, memory, and touchscreen capabilities, but cannot
interact with the Internet.
There are apps that are usable in airplane mode having already
downloaded all usable functionality or relevant content. For instance,
ebooks can still be read, many games can be played, and PowerPoint
presentations can be edited. Such apps, while interacting with the Internet
to download functionality or upload edits, mainly rely on the features of
the smart device, not the power of the Internet.
In our consideration of the mobile Internet we will focus on the services
and applications that cannot function in airplane mode, in other words that
interact with the Internet in delivering their functionality. For example, an
app that downloads maps from the Internet to provide driving directions is
a good use of the Internet; an app that provides real-time information from
the Internet about traffic and road conditions uses the mobile Internet.
Global Internet Report 2015
31
Within the topic of the mobile Internet there are two stories that are
fundamental to the mission and vision of the Internet Society, which can be
viewed separately or as part of a broader whole:
Smart
device
Evolution
Full
Mobility
Development
Full mobility is at the heart of the mobile Internet; built on top of the
ubiquitous mobile voice networks, this makes the mobile Internet integral to
Internet development around the world. It is often said that mobile access
has leap-frogged fixed access; however, just as important, based on the
unique attributes of the mobile Internet, mobile services such as mobile
money are leapfrogging traditional ones.
In addition, the features of the smart device, combined with the increased
use of apps, are changing the fundamental nature of the Internet, and
introducing new concerns regarding privacy and security.
32
Annex
A number of smart device features
are similar to a laptop
Smart devices are now capable of acting as miniaturised laptop computers
in many respects. The use of a smart device as a computer has the added
benefit of increased portability, with all documents, photos, games and apps
available at all times.
STORAGE
Smart devices are now available with up to 128GB of memory, in the form
of a solid-state drive rather than a hard disk, which is more memory than
had been developed for any computer until 13 years ago.13 This allows for
an increasing amount of local storage of apps, media, and documents.
PROCESSOR
Smartphone processor power has increased dramatically since their initial
launch. For example, iPhone processor power has more than doubled
from the 620MHz processor used in the first-generation iPhones to the
1.4GHz processor used in the iPhone 6, offering download speeds of up to
136Mbit/s.14
Input
KEYBOARD
With full touchscreen keyboards, it is possible to type on smart devices.
In recognition of the small size, devices may offer shortcuts such as
autocompletion or autocorrection of words to speed input. Tablets are also
able to use external keyboards linked via Bluetooth.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives.
http://www.zdnet.com/article/who-makes-the-fastest-downloading-smartphones-in-the-world-hint-itsnot-apple/.
13
14
34
MICROPHONE
From the basic phone function of capturing speech, smartphones are
able to capture sound, a feature duplicated in tablets as well. Along with
communication functions, this enables voice recognition software that
allows the spoken word to be transposed to text, or oral commands to be
given and understood by smart devices.
SIGHT
Many smart devices have a camera facing the screen, similar to a laptop,
which can be used for video chat. On smart devices, they are particularly
popular for self-portraits (also known as selfies) and Google estimates that
93 million of these are taken per day on their devices alone.
In addition, smart devices have front-facing cameras, which are replacing
traditional point-and-shoot cameras as the main device for taking photos on
the go. The iPhone 6 Plus for example offers 8 megapixel resolution, with
image stabilisation, and video capability.
Output
HD
SCREEN
The screens on smart devices are becoming increasingly high definition,
enabling, among other things, the devices to act as video players.
SOUND
As with laptops, smart devices typically have speakers enabling them to
act as speakerphones, among other things. In a nod to the portability of the
devices and their historical heritage as music players, select devices such
as the LG G2, are capable of delivering 24 bit 192 kHz sound, which is a
higher sampling rate and bit depth than CDs.
Global Internet Report 2015
35
Communications
SIM, BLUETOOTH, NFC
Smart devices typically resemble many laptops in terms of communications.
While all smartphones, by definition, have SIM cards to enable access to
mobile networks for voice and data services, many laptops and tablets also
have the option of a SIM for accessing mobile data networks. In addition,
all have Wi-Fi that enables local Internet access, and Bluetooth to access
peripheral devices such as keyboards and music speakers. Finally, some
new smart devices are equipped with NFC to enable services using shortrange communications, such as payments.
Based on these hardware features, it may be of little surprise to see the rise
of smartphones and tablets at the expense of falling or stagnating sales of
traditional mobile phones and computers. However, as we note below in
Section 4, smart devices may not be optimal for all work normally done on
personal computers.
SIM
cards are small circuit boards that are placed into phones or
network-connected laptops and tablets that contain information
that uniquely identifies that device to the mobile network, allowing
the subscriber to use the communication features of the device.
The card holds information such as a phone number, security
data and billing information that helps the carrier identify the user
of the device.
BLUETOOTH
is a wireless technology standard for exchanging data over
short distances between fixed and mobile devices. It operates
in unlicensed spectrum between 2.4 – 2.485GHz and was
originally conceived as an alternative to data cables.
NFC
(near field communication) uses short-range, low-power wireless
links to transfer small amounts of data between two devices
held a few centimetres from each other. Passive NFC ‘tags’ can
be tapped by mobile devices, sending web address, discount
vouchers, maps or timetables or receiving instant payments. Both
Google and Apple offer contactless “tap to pay” mobile wallet
services, Google Wallet and Apple Pay, making NFC payments
possible for millions of Android and iPhone 6 users.
36
A smart device has many features
not included in a laptop
In addition to its personal computer functionality, a significant number of
features are included in a smart device that are not included in a traditional
laptop computer. These include:
BAROMETER
a number of smartphones include tools capable of measuring
atmospheric pressure, which can be useful in augmenting the
phone’s weather forecasting as well as indicating altitude which
can be used for fitness and exercise tracking apps
ENVIRONMENTAL
PHOTOMETER
an instrument for measuring light intensity or optical properties
of solutions or surfaces, these can be used by smartphones
to augment photography, as well as measuring objects and
distances. This also is useful for controlling display brightness
based on how much ambient light is present
THERMOMETER
some smartphones contain internal thermometers to measure
the temperature of components within the phone (e.g. battery)
as well as a secondary thermometer for measuring outside
temperatures
ACCELEROMETER
these measure acceleration (the rate of change in velocity),
which is useful in smartphones to detect changes in orientation
and tell the screen to rotate. They are additionally used in
smartphone motion sensing games and fitness apps
MOTION
GYROSCOPE
these devices use the Earth’s gravity to help determine
orientation, measuring the rate of rotation around a particular
axis. These enhance the accelerometer’s ability to detect
smartphone orientation, particularly when the device is in
motion
Global Internet Report 2015
37
MAGNETOMETER
these supply phones with information on their orientation in
relation to the Earth’s magnetic field, enabling a digital compass
such that the phone knows which way is North and can autorotate digital maps depending on physical orientation
POSITION
PROXIMITY
these detect the presence of nearby objects, in particular the
user’s hand or face, and prevent unwanted touch input when
the user’s ear is near to the phone
GPS
GPS sensors are included in all smartphones and are used to
track the device or ‘navigate’ things by map or picture with the
help of GPS satellites
We note in particular that many of these features provide detailed
information to their users, such as the user’s location, which is used in
many location-based services such as maps and directions.
These features also make smart devices a network of powerful sensors
from which data can be aggregated to crowdsource information ranging
from weather to health. In this way, the mobile Internet is an early, and
potentially critical, part of the emerging Internet of Things.
38
Location Technology
The navigational capability for smartphones has been extended beyond on-screen feedback, such as
for instance an app and device that causes bicycle handlebars to vibrate in the direction of the turn.15
Furthermore, location functionality allows data to be collected on travel, for example the use of Baidu
apps in China showed that around 80 million people were travelling for Chinese New Year celebrations
on 16 February 2015.16
Wi-Fi
GPS
CELL TOWER
POSITIONING
COMBINATION
LOCATION
Wi-Fi
GPS (Global Positioning System)
Wi-Fi data can be used to identify a handset’s
location. Companies develop public Wi-Fi location
databases that identify the location of hotspots
using unique identifying features. For instance, the
Google Street View cars also record the locations of
all Wi-Fi signals that they pass. The user’s position
is then calculated based on measuring the intensity
of any received Wi-Fi signal(s) and matching it to
the public Wi-Fi location database.
A space-based satellite navigation system based
on time. The satellites carry atomic clocks and
the satellite locations are monitored precisely.
These GPS satellites transmit data continuously
which contains their current time and position. A
GPS receiver within a smartphone or other GPSusing device listens to multiple satellites and uses
triangulation based on the time taken for the signal
to travel from the satellite to the handset to calculate
the user’s exact location.
Combination
Cell tower positioning
Most smartphones combine Global Positioning
Systems (GPS) with Wi-Fi positioning systems, with
Wi-Fi positioning used to compensate for the poor
performance of GPS in indoor locations.
The service provider can derive location using the
network provider’s infrastructure. The location of the
user is calculated based on the radio signal delay of
the closest cell-phone towers.
15
16
(http://www.wired.com/2015/01/easy-install-bike-handlebars-buzz-give-directions/).
http://news.yahoo.com/heat-map-captures-massive-chinese-migration-093204087.html.
Global Internet Report 2015
39
Section 2
Mobile Internet:
Trends and Growth
PENETRATION, PRICING,
AND USAGE
MOBILE NETWORK
DEPLOYMENTS
APP
40
DEVICES AND APPS
DATA PROVIDED BY REGION
NAM
SSA
CALA
MENA
WE
EMAP
CEE
DVAP
North America
Caribbean and Latin America
Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
Emerging Asia Pacific
Developed Asia Pacific
See Annex for the list of countries in each region.
Global Internet Report 2015
41
Penetration, pricing,
and usage
The mobile Internet is thoroughly dynamic –prices continue to fall, and
usage and penetration continue to rise. The trend that mobile Internet
penetration is rising faster than overall Internet penetration highlights the
importance of the mobile Internet for users who are increasingly driving
Internet growth. Likewise, the traffic generated by these users continues to
increase at a faster rate than growth in users, showing that mobile Internet
users are trending towards higher bandwidth usage, notably for video.
The impact of the mobile Internet is perhaps greatest in developing regions,
where there are few, if any, fixed access options. Starting from low rates of
adoption five years ago, growth has outpaced that of the developed regions
and is forecast to continue to do so in the near future. Perhaps most
strikingly, the growth rate in mobile Internet adoption is outpacing that of
mobile phones after they were launched almost 20 years ago, suggesting a
very optimistic outlook for mobile adoption in these regions.
MOBILE
INTERNET
PRICES
USERS
USAGE
Internet penetration continues to grow worldwide
May
2015
42
The global proportion of people using the Internet rose to 38.1% of the
global population in 2013, up from 23.2% in 2008, a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the period. This represents a global
base of Internet users of 2.7 billion in 2013, and the ITU predicted almost
2.9 billion users by the end of 2014, meaning that 3 billion users was likely
to have been surpassed in May 2015.
Proportion of individuals
in a region using the
Internet in the previous
12 month period. Data
is based on surveys
carried out by individual
national statistical offices
or extrapolated from
information on Internet
subscriptions.
The ISOC Global Internet Maps provide insight on Internet user numbers
in each country.1
Proportion of population using the Internet
90%
Percentage Internet users
DATA
DEFINITION
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
WE
CEE
NAM
DVAP
CALA
MENA
SSA
World
2011
2012
2013
EMAP
Source: ITU, 2014
INSIGHT AND REGIONAL DISCUSSION
While usage continues to be highest in the most developed regions, for example North America
where it sits at 84.4%, the increase in usage is most significant in those regions with the lowest
penetration in 2008. For example Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an annual growth rate of
23% over the period, with 17% of the population using the Internet by 2013.
In all other regions, Internet users exceed 25% of the population, including notably in the Emerging
Asia Pacific region, with more than 1 billion users, over 630 million of them in China alone.
CAGR
The compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, is the year-on-year
steady growth rate of the metric over a specific time period.
1
See http://www.internetsociety.org/map/global-internet-report/#global-internet-penetration
Global Internet Report 2015
43
GLOBAL INTERNET MAPS
The Global Internet Maps2 were first released to highlight the
data in the first Global Internet Report, and since then have
been updated and new maps have been added, a number of
which relate to the topic of this report.
DATA
DEFINITION
Mobile Internet device
penetration considers
the number of mobile
Internet devices in a
region divided by the
population. Our data for
mobile Internet access
devices includes 3G
and 4G capable phones
as well as mid-screen
device connections,
such as via tablets,
but excludes 2.5G
mobile Internet devices,
meaning that it may
slightly underestimate
the penetration level.
Mobile Internet penetration is forecast to reach at least 71% by 2019
In 2013 global 3G and 4G capable phone and mid-screen device
connections reached 1.97 billion, a penetration of 28%. Global penetration
is forecast to grow quickly to 71% in 2019.
Mobile Internet device penetration in the developed Asia-Pacific region
already exceeds 100%, indicating that many have multiple subscriptions,
while in North America, Western Europe and Central and Latin America it
is expected to rise above 100% by 2017. In Central and Eastern Europe a
level of 98% is forecast by 2019.
In developing regions, penetration is significantly lower, but individuals or
households may share access to devices. In addition, growth rates are
forecast to outpace developed regions. Of particular note is the forecast
growth rate of mobile Internet penetration in Central and Latin America,
where an annual growth rate of 23% is expected.
UNIQUE SUBSCRIPTIONS
The number of mobile connections, or SIMs, in the market does
not necessarily equal the number of unique subscribers. Some
subscribers have multiple subscriptions, a result of a number
of factors including cost minimising decisions to use different
subscriptions for different services, maximising coverage by having
subscriptions on different networks and/or having subscriptions for
different device types (e.g. smartphones and tablets).
Such multiple subscriptions are popular and mobile subscribers
held an average of 1.78 active SIMs (both voice and non-voice
mobile Internet SIM cards) each at year end 2014. Multiple
subscriptions are clearly popular for mobile Internet connections,
for example, penetration in the Developing Asia Pacific region was
around 110% in 2013, implying at least 10% of subscribers hold
multiple subscriptions.
Other subscribers will share a subscription with other members of
their household or community, in particular in developing regions
where the cost of a mobile Internet subscription can be very high
relative to income.
2
44
http://www.internetsociety.org/map/global-internet-report/
Total mobile SIMs per unique subscriber
SIMs per unique
subscriber
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
CEE
EMAP
CALA
MENA
WE
SSA
DVAP
NAM
Source: GSMA, Q4 2014
DATA
DEFINITION
Data traffic from mobile Internet devices is forecast to grow rapidly
Total annual data traffic
originating from mobile
Internet devices, 3G
and 4G handsets and
mid-screen devices.
Mobile data traffic is forecast to grow rapidly across all geographies, at
a faster rate than that of mobile connections. This is due to significant
increases in mobile traffic per device. While globally traffic will grow at a
CAGR of 52% out to 2019, countries in which mobile Internet is already
well entrenched will experience slower overall traffic growth than those in
regions in which it is less developed, such as the emerging Asia Pacific
where the growth rate is expected to be 72%.
DATA
DEFINITION
Data traffic on the average mobile Internet device is forecast to more
than treble between 2014 and 2019
Monthly data traffic
carried by the average
mobile Internet device.
Mobile Internet traffic is not just growing because there are more users –
it is also growing because each user is generating more traffic on average
based on new multimedia content. This chart shows that traffic per mobile
Internet device is predicted to grow significantly across all regions, with a
global CAGR of 27% expected between 2014 and 2019.
While all regions are expected to experience growth rates in data traffic
per device of at least roughly 25%, the difference in data traffic per
connection across regions is forecast to persist. The developed regions
with the most traffic per connection today will continue to have the most in
the forecast future.
Global Internet Report 2015
45
A. Mobile Internet device penetration
B. Annual global Mobile Internet traffic
C. Monthly traffic per mobile Internet connection
A.
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2013
2014
WE
CEE
NAM
DVAP
MENA
SSA
World
2017
2018
2019
EMAP
120
100
80
60
40
20
2012
2013
2014
2015
CEE
NAM
DVAP
EMAP
LATAM
MENA
SSA
Traffic per mobile Internet
connection (MB/month thousand)
WE
C.
2016
140
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
WE
CEE
NAM
DVAP
CALA
MENA
SSA
World
Source: Analysys Mason, 2015
46
2015
CALA
Mobile Internet data traffic
(PB thousand)
B.
2012
EMAP
The rise in popularity of relatively data heavy multimedia applications, such as YouTube, in
combination with the general trend for increased usage of mobile devices for less data-heavy
activities is responsible for the growth in mobile Internet traffic per connection.
The graph below shows how different applications generate increased amounts of traffic as audio,
and then video, are added.3
–
+
20KB
300KB
EMAIL
EMAIL WITH
ATTACHMENT
350KB
SOCIAL MEDIA
POST WITH
IMAGE
(estimated from an email
attachment or a social
media post with image)
180KB
25MB
35MB
WEB PAGE
STREAMING
MUSIC
1 hour
VIDEO
10 minutes
Source: SaskTel
Affordability is critical to mobile Internet uptake
One factor impacting usage is the affordability of services, which we
show across individual countries in our Global Internet Maps. (LINK http://
www.internetsociety.org/map/global-internet-report/#affordability-mobilebroadband). Affordability here is measured as the percentage of per capita
GDP that is required for a mobile Internet subscription (which, according to
the ITU, is at least 3G).
According to the ITU numbers, out of the 129 countries with reported
numbers, there are 30 where a subscription costs less than 1% of per
capita GDP and 81 countries where a subscription is below the UN
Broadband Commission target of 5% of per capita GDP.4 That still leaves a
number of countries over 10% of per capita GDP, which puts a subscription
out of reach for many, and in two countries the cost of a subscription is
more than 100% of per capita GDP.
These numbers are taken from the SaskTel data usage calculator, meant to help customers determine
which wireless plan to choose. The numbers presented here are based on average downloads to a
smartphone. For downloads to a tablet with a larger screen, the averages are higher, in some cases
double or even more. See http://www.sasktel.com/wps/wcm/connect/content/Home/Tools/datacalculator
4
See http://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/Broadband_Targets.pdf
3
Global Internet Report 2015
47
Device costs have a significant impact on affordability
In 2013, global smartphone average selling prices (ASPs) were USD 337,
down 12.8% from USD387 in 2012. ASPs in North America and Europe are
relatively high, reflecting the popularity of more high-end smartphones in
these geographies.
This reduction in ASPs will enable more users to afford smartphones for
the first time, satisfying the demand for affordable data consumption in
developing regions.
The average selling
price for smartphone
handsets is calculated
by region as the total
spend on smartphones
divided by the total
number of units sold.
Average selling price of smartphones
Average selling price of smartphones
(USD)
DATA
DEFINITION
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Asia/
Pacific
Europe
North
America
Latin
America
Middle
East and
Africa
World
Source: IDC, 2015
INSIGHT AND REGIONAL DISCUSSION
In part this global reduction in ASPs is a result of the entry to the smartphone market of new
handset manufacturers focused on low-cost devices. These new manufacturers have been
enabled by the growth of Android as well as more open-source operating systems such as Firefox.
Traditional device manufacturers such as Motorola and Nokia have released budget smartphones
priced at under GBP150, such as the Motorola Moto G 2014 and the Nokia Lumia 735. In
developing regions, new entrants to the device market are releasing smartphones with lower
specifications at much cheaper prices, for example Mozilla launched its Firefox OS smartphones
in India priced at USD255 and the Chinese equipment company ZTE sells its ZTE Blade Q Mini
device for less than GBP50.
See http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ultra-low-cost-mozilla-firefox-smartphones-hit-budget-conscious-indiasoon-1452243
5
48
The impressive growth in mobile broadband
subscriptions easily outpaces the already amazing
mobile phone adoption rates experienced in the regions
in which mobile has ‘leap-frogged’ fixed
DATA
DEFINITION
We have compared
the growth in
mobile broadband
subscriptions to the
growth of mobile
cellular subscriptions
per 100 inhabitants
for the regions in
which mobile can
be considered the
dominant method of
Internet access. Y0
on the chart indicates
the year in which the
respective services
launched in that
region; for example in
Central and Eastern
Europe, mobile phones
launched in 1996 while
mobile broadband
launched in 2007.
Both mobile cellular and mobile broadband subscriptions continue to
grow across all regions, with the penetration of mobile broadband devices
accelerating away from the growth rates previously seen for mobile phones
at the same time following the launch of services.
The regional growth rates in mobile broadband population penetration
appear to be significantly higher than the already high corresponding
historical growth in mobile cellular penetration, which themselves beat
predictions significantly. Within six years of introduction (which corresponds
to 2013 for the mobile broadband data), mobile broadband penetration
exceeded cellular penetration at the same stage of introduction by between
4 and 20 percentage points across regions.
This faster uptake can be attributed to two factors, the increased awareness
by potential customers of mobile services and the lower costs to the service
provider of upgrading their service to be mobile broadband capable relative
to the original costs of deploying their mobile cellular network.
MBB and mobile phone penetration CEE
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Y0
MPhone
Y17
MBB
Source: ITU, 2014
INSIGHT
Mobile phone adoption was one of the fastest of any technological service in history and its current
penetration far exceeds that predicted at the early stages of its deployment. In 1999, for example,
Safaricom projected that Kenya as a whole would have a total of three million mobile subscriptions
by 2020. And yet, that number was surpassed by the end of 2004, and by September 2014 there
were 32.8 million subscribers in Kenya, ten times higher than predicted by Safaricom.
Global Internet Report 2015
49
MBB and mobile phone penetration
MENA
MBB and mobile phone penetration
CALA
120%
120%
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Y0
MPhone
Y17
MBB
Y0
MPhone
Y17
MBB
MBB and mobile phone penetration
SSA
MBB and mobile phone penetration
EMAP
120%
120%
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Y0
MPhone
Source: ITU, 2014
50
Y17
MBB
Y0
MPhone
Y17
MBB
Mobile network deployments
Prior to the advent of the mobile Internet, the legacy fixed telephone
network in a country acted to limit Internet penetration to a significant
degree – in areas of the country where the fixed network was not deployed,
or not upgraded to enable Internet access, then there were limited options
for people to go online. Thus, at this point, the digital divide was often
characterized by access – those who wanted to go online, and could afford
to do so, could not if they were not reached by the fixed network. The cost
of extending coverage of the fixed network, in turn, was high because of the
cost of deploying a line to each and every residence.
Access to mobile telephony quickly overtook fixed telephony in many
countries, even where there was an extensive fixed network, because of the
nature of the costs. In extending a mobile network, once a tower is in place,
anyone within radio reach of that tower was covered, both on the move and
within their residences. Further, the cost of upgrading the network to offer
mobile Internet was incremental, and the upgrade reached everyone within
coverage of the network. As usage increases, additional costs are required to
increase capacity – however, the additional usage generates the revenue to
cover the corresponding increases in capacity.
As a result, in many developed countries the coverage for mobile telephony,
and then mobile Internet, quickly approached 100% of the population, while
in developing countries the coverage quickly surpassed the fixed coverage,
and is trending up above 50% for voice, and increasingly Internet. As new
generations of mobile networks become available, such as most recently
4G, the coverage can quickly extend throughout the network to all of the
population, representing significant increases in bandwidth speed for the
user, and capacity for the operators.
UPGRADING
The majority of cellular network coverage areas have at least
2G services deployed. Given that upgrading services from 2G
to 2.5G requires minimal costs relative to the original network
roll-out costs, as the majority of fixed network costs such as
infrastructure are shared, the move from mobile to mobile
Internet services has been rapid. We would estimate that the
costs of such a network upgrade would be less than 10% of
the initial roll-out costs. This is in part responsible for the more
rapid uptake (leap-frog) of mobile Internet than mobile cellular
devices and networks.
Global Internet Report 2015
51
A. Proportion of population covered by a mobile cellular network
B. Proportion of population covered by at least 3G
C. 3G population coverage as % of mobile cellular population coverage
A.
100%
Population coverage
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
B.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Population coverage
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
C.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
WE
CEE
NAM
DVAP
CALA
MENA
SSA
World
Source: ITU, 2014
52
EMAP
DATA
DEFINITION
Percentage of the
population covered
by a mobile-cellular
network refers to
the percentage of
inhabitants within range
of a mobile-cellular
signal, irrespective of
whether or not they are
subscribers or users.
DATA
DEFINITION
The ITU data here
focuses on 3G coverage
as an indicator for the
coverage of mobile
broadband services.
This is a narrower
definition of mobile
Internet services than
our definition, which
includes 2.5G services
such as GPRS and
EDGE. Thus, these
numbers understate the
proportion of population
which is covered by the
mobile Internet.
DATA
DEFINITION
We have calculated
the proportion of the
population covered by
mobile-Internet-capable
3G services divided
by the proportion of
population covered
by any mobile cellular
services.
The proportion of the global population in mobile-cellular coverage
areas continues to rise
Mobile cellular networks covered 94% of global population in 2013, with
coverage in certain regions (such as Western Europe, Central and Eastern
Europe, developed Asia Pacific and North America) having been close to
a 100% saturation point for many years. Even in those regions with lower
levels of deployment of mobile cellular networks, population coverage
is growing and has now reached above 83% in all regions. The cellular
network coverage is important because it represents the upper limit of
mobile Internet coverage, given the relatively low cost of upgrading mobile
networks to provide Internet access.
Availability of mobile Internet service is critical to adoption
While lower than the level of mobile cellular coverage, the proportion of
the global population in 3G coverage areas continues to rise, reaching
48% in 2013.
However, the global growth rate in coverage has declined from a
CAGR of 36% in 2008-2012 to 6% in 2012-2013. This is a result of the
coverage in the developed Asia-Pacific, North America and Western
Europe reaching close to 100% and having little scope for further
growth.
Regions in which population coverage is lower continue to experience
growth, in particular the emerging Asia Pacific where coverage has
grown at a CAGR of 57% between 2012-2013 from 8% to 13%
A view of 3G coverage by country can be found on our Global Internet
Maps (http://www.internetsociety.org/map/global-internet-report/#3gcoverage)
Mobile Internet deployment has not fully caught up to mobile
cellular deployment
While mobile-cellular population coverage is looking healthy, the
relationship between this and 3G coverage suggests that operators
are yet to deploy mobile-Internet-capable networks as widely as those
for mobile voice services. In particular, 3G population coverage in the
Emerging Asia Pacific and Sub Saharan Africa remain at 14% and 42%
respectively of the level of mobile-cellular networks. Similarly, globally
3G coverage is only 51% of mobile cellular coverage.
While 3G coverage is growing and catching up to the cellular coverage
levels, there is still a long way to go with network deployments before
mobile Internet services are as accessible as those for mobile voice.
Global Internet Report 2015
53
Number of countries with mobile network deployments
using different technologies
220
Countries with access to network technology
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2G
2008
3G
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
4G
3G and 4G deployments by region in 2014
60
50
Countries
40
30
20
10
0
EMAP
Total countries
CEE
WE
Countries with 3G networks
Source: TeleGeography, 2015
54
MENA
SSA
CALA
DVAP
NAM
Countries with 4G networks
3G and 4G network deployment is increasing
2012
181
3G
2014
2012
192
62
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH
ACTIVE 3G NETWORKS
4G
2014
102
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH
ACTIVE 4G NETWORKS
New 3G network deployments have occurred in less developed regions,
including in Algeria, Anguilla and St Lucia. Countries with new 4G
deployments are spread across the globe and include the Bahamas,
Bulgaria, Ireland, New Zealand and Peru
The descriptions of 2G, 3G and 4G services are found in section 1.
These upgraded mobile networks are clustered across certain regions.
Already in 2012, 100% of Western European, North American, and
developed Asia-Pacific countries have operators with active 3G networks.
However, by 2014, all countries in Central and Eastern Europe and
emerging Asia-Pacific also all contain at least one 3G network.
More than 55% of countries in these regions also contain 4G networks,
with this proportion reaching over 75% in Western European, North
American, and developed Asia-Pacific countries.
A lower proportion of Middle-Eastern and North African, sub-Saharan
African and Latin American countries have rolled out 3G and 4G
networks. However 3G roll-outs stand at over 90% and close to 50% of
Middle-Eastern and North African and Latin American countries have
rolled out 4G networks.
Global Internet Report 2015
55
Devices and apps
The growth of smart devices has been significant, and has already overtaken
traditional devices; since 2013 smartphones have outsold other mobile
devices, while tablets have outsold desktop PCs and laptop PCs respectively.
These devices are characterized by their operating system as well as their
vendor, and in this regard, Android has become the most popular operating
system on smartphones, offered by numerous vendors.
While smart devices offer open access to the Internet via a browser, they
are predominantly used with apps. In this regard, the availability of apps is
important, and led by Apple and Google Play, offering Android apps. As we
will see, this level of app usage is one of the significant benefits of the mobile
Internet for users, but also leads to many of its challenges.
Billions
Global shipments of handsets
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2011
2012
Smartphone Shipments
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Non-Smartphone Shipments
Source: Analysys Mason, 2015
September
2013
September
2014
Smartphone shipments continue to increase
The Analysys Mason forecasts show that while total handset shipments
continue to grow, there has been a change in handset technology,
with smartphones making up the majority of mobile handsets shipped
since September 2013 globally, and even in developing countries since
September 2014.
The difference between smartphone and non-smartphone handset
shipments is expected to increase, with shipments of smartphones forecast
to reach 1.67 billion in 2018 at which point other handset shipments will
stand at only 0.47 billion.
56
INSIGHT
This migration of users to devices more suited to mobile data, such as smartphones,
is partially responsible for the increase in mobile traffic per device.
August
2013
October
2015
DATA
DEFINITION
Tablet shipments have been growing rapidly in recent years
Tablet sales have exceeded those of laptops in August 2013. In 2014 tablet
shipments reached 287 million, approximately 90% of the total 318 million
laptops and desktops shipped.
While the gap between total PC and tablet sales is expected to continue to
decline, with tablet shipments in fact expected to overtake these in October
2015, the growth rate of tablet sales is reducing. This is in part a result
of the extended lifetime of tablets, with software upgrades keeping them
current. Additionally the ability for tablets to be used by multiple household
members may restrict the total market size.
Global shipments of tablets and PCs
450
400
Shipments (million)
Beyond smartphones,
we are also interested
in the move from
PCs (both desktop
and laptop) to tablets
because tablets
have greater mobile
capabilities, including
access to the App
stores, and potential for
integrated SIMs.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
Tablets
2011
2012
Desktop PCs
2013
2014
Laptop PCs
2015
2016
2017
Total PCs
Source: Statista, 2015
A number of vendors provide competing mobile operating systems
Android’s share of the operating system market for smartphones has risen
sharply, from 57% in Q3 2011 to 84% in Q3 2014.6 This growth in market
share has been at the expense of other platforms, in particular BlackBerry
OS, which fell from a 10% market share in Q3 2011 to just 1% in Q3 2014.
Similarly Android’s share of the operating system market for tablets has
grown from 29% in Q3 2011 to 72% in Q3 2014.7
6
With respect to tablet sales, in the last quarter of 2014, data show Android selling the majority as with
smartphones, albeit not with as great a market share (66%), with Apple second (27%) and Windows Phone
third (7%), and no other alternatives sold. See http://www.statista.com/statistics/273268/worldwide-tabletsales-by-operating-system-since-2nd-quarter-2010/
7
See http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ultra-low-cost-mozilla-firefox-smartphones-hit-budget-conscious-indiasoon-1452243
Global Internet Report 2015
57
Market share of unit shipments of smartphone
operating systems
84%
Android
Source: IDC, Q3 2014
58
12%
iOS
3%
Windows Phone
1%
BlackBerry OS
1%
Others
Android’s market leading position has strengthened, in part due to the
declining popularity of operating systems such as BlackBerry and in part due
to competitive pricing strategies, with a USD230 average selling price for
Android devices in Q3 2014, down from USD267 in Q3 2013.
Amongst the manufacturers using Android OS, the dominance of Samsung
may be threatened by the emergence of Chinese vendors, such as Xiaomi
and Lenovo.
INSIGHT
We note that Android now has a high share of the market for both smartphones and
tablets. While it is true that Android is free open source software, which indeed helps
to explain its adoption by smart device vendors, this nonetheless gives Android, and
the associated Google Play app store, a gatekeeper role over a large part of the
ecosystem. We explain further the gatekeeper role of the platforms below in section 4.
A number of vendors have created mobile operating systems – we highlight a
selection here.
ANDROID
September
2008
Android is an OS developed by Google Inc. and unveiled in September 2008,
followed by the launch of the Android Market in October 2008.8 It is available for
free as open source software to any smart device vendor, and has the largest
installed base worldwide on smartphones. However a large amount of software
on Android devices (such as Play Store and Google Music) are proprietary. Most
major mobile service providers carry an Android device.
October
2008
Android is available to device vendors under two models, either a direct
relationship with Google for ‘compatibility-tested’ devices or via the Android Open
Source Project. Under the first of these, vendors are allowed to offer Google
Mobile Services, which includes the Google Play Store, Google Search, and
Google Play Services, while at the same time qualifying for future releases of the
operating system. Vendors that take advantage of the Open Source Project have
access to the Android source code, available under an Apache license, which
allows a large degree of flexibility to customise the software. However, such
customisation means that the devices no longer qualify as ‘compatibility-tested’
and they no longer have access to Google Apps or future updates of Android.
IOS
iOS is a mobile operating system developed by Apple Inc., originally unveiled
in 2007 for the Apple iPhone, and distributed exclusively for Apple hardware.
It has the second largest installed base worldwide on smartphones behind
Android. It is closed source and proprietary and built on open source Darwin
core OS. Native third party applications were not officially supported until the
release of iOS 2.0 on July 11, 2008. Before this, “jailbreaking” allowed third
party applications to be installed, and this method is still available.
Android Market started as an app store, and as other media such as music and videos were added, it
was renamed Google Play in 2012.
8
Global Internet Report 2015
59
WINDOWS PHONE
October
2010
Windows Phone is from Microsoft, it was first launched in October 2010 with
its own app store. It is closed source and proprietary. It has the third largest
installed base on smartphones behind Android and iOS.
BLACKBERRY
April
2009
BlackBerry 10 (based on the QNX OS) is from BlackBerry. As a smart
phone OS, it is closed source and proprietary. BlackBerry 10 is the next
generation platform for BlackBerry smartphones and tablets, whose app
store was launched in April 2009. All phones and tablets are manufactured by
BlackBerry itself. Once one of the dominant platforms in the world, its global
market share has been reduced to less than 1% in late 2014.
FIREFOX
April
2013
Firefox OS is developed by Mozilla and was released in April 2013. It is
open source and uses Mozilla Public License. On July 2, 2013, Telefónica
launched the first commercial Firefox OS based phone, ZTE Open, in Spain.
As of December 16, 2014, Firefox OS phones are offered by 14 operators in
28 countries throughout the world.
AMAZON
Amazon devices, their Fire Phone and Kindle Fire in particular, operate on
the Fire OS, a customised version of Android. These devices are exclusively
tied to Amazon’s software and content systems and do not offer those found
on other Android devices, such as the Google Play store.
More than one million apps are now available
The Apple App Store launched in July 2008 at the same time as the iPhone
2.0 in order to distribute third-party apps to the platform. The popularity of
Apple’s App Store led to the introduction of equivalent marketplaces by
competing mobile operating systems.
Apple benefitted from its early launch of its app store; however it places a
large number of restrictions on app developers. The more limited restrictions
imposed by Google Play and other app platforms are attractive to app
developers. This in combination with the relatively larger potential market
(Google Play apps are compatible with Android phones), has meant that
Apple no longer has an advantage in terms of app availability.
60
INSIGHT
When the number of apps available relative to the market share of the platform is considered it becomes
apparent that, compared to Google/Android, Apple has a much higher relative number of apps. This
suggests that Apple’s market size is above a critical level at which close to all apps are developed
for that platform. The platforms with lower market shares offer significantly lower numbers of apps,
suggesting that they fall below the market size necessary to trigger close to universal app development
Apps available in various app stores
The apps available
through the Firefox
App store remain
limited (at 5746 in
the UK App store at
3 Feb 2014)
June
2014
July
2013
Apple iOS reached
75 billion downloads
in June 20149;
Google play reached
50 billion in July
201310
Available Apps (million)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Apple
Google
Play
Windows
Amazon
BlackBerry
Source: Statista, 201511
9
http://www.statista.com/statistics/263794/number-of-downloads-from-the-apple-app-store/
http://www.statista.com/statistics/281106/number-of-android-app-downloads-from-google-play/
http://www.statista.com/statistics/276623/number-of-apps-available-in-leading-app-stores/
10
11
Global Internet Report 2015
61
DATA
DEFINITION
Different App stores
have agreements
allowing them to
sell their apps to
consumers in different
countries.
App store availability
The app store creates an international market for both free and paid apps,
largely free of the licensing restrictions that pertain to existing content such
as movies, which typically are licensed on a geographic basis. As a result,
distribution of apps tends to be broad, but it is not yet global, as can be
seen by the different number of countries where each app store is available.
The differences appear to come from the ability to sell paid apps in a
country, as opposed to enabling the download of free apps that do not
require a payment infrastructure. Google Play and the Apple store numbers
in the graph both relate to paid apps, while it appears that the other stores
include the ability to provide free apps in their list of countries.
Furthermore, due to restrictions based on national legislation, the apps
available to users in different countries are not uniform. This means that
in certain countries it is not possible to download the full app library –
however, we do not have detailed data on the differences.
DATA
DEFINITION
The share of time spent
engaging with digital
media in the United
States, both mobile and
fixed.
June
2014
Apps are the preferred way to access the Internet in the US
Application usage is responsible for a significant amount of time spent on
mobile devices and in engagement with the mobile Internet. As mobile
becomes a more dominant technology for engaging with digital media,
this is also resulting in mobile apps making up an increased share of the
total digital market, both fixed and mobile.
In the 12 months June 2013-June 2014, mobile grew from 51% to 60%
of digital media time in the United States, with the share of this time from
app usage also growing. In early 2014, time spent engaging with mobile
apps exceeded that spent on desktop computers, such that by June 2014
mobile app time made up over half (52%) of all US digital engagement.
Share of US digital media time
Share of time spent using digital media in the United
States
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Desktop
Jun-13
Dec-13
Mobile app
Source: ComScore, 2014
62
Mobile browser
Jun-14
Availability of app stores across countries
Again, due to the
recent launch of
the Firefox OS and
its corresponding
marketplace, it is
currently available in
only 14 countries
FEBRUARY
2015
Number of countries with App store available
Google
Play
Apple iOS
BlackBerry
World
171
155
144
Windows
191
Amazon Appstore
194
Source: App store websites12
12
o
o
o
o
o
Apple – iTunes
BlackBerry - http://www.blackberry.com/app_includes/devicesoftware/appworld/appworld_availability_en.html
Windows - https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/windows/apps/jj863494.aspx
Amazon - http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201357480
Google Play - https://support.google.com/googleplay/answer/2843119?hl=en-GB
Global Internet Report 2015
63
INSIGHT AND REGIONAL DISCUSSION
This growth in app usage is reflected in the value of the app economy. This has grown from
USD53 billion in 2012, 18% of the combined revenue from the app economy and handsets, to
USD86 billion in 2014. The value is forecast to rise to USD143 billion in 2016, at which point it will
comprise 33% of the combined app economy and handset revenue.
APP ECONOMY
The app economy is defined as all sources of value associated
with the app ecosystem, including not only revenues from app
stores and advertising, but also economic activity generated via
sources such as in-app purchases, services for app developed
and commissioned app development.
Conclusion
Over the past 8 years since the iPhone was released, there has been a
virtuous circle of growth involving a variety of stakeholders: operators have
begun to deploy faster generations of networks in more countries, covering
more of the population; more vendors have released smart device platforms,
as developers create more and more apps; while users have increased
their adoption and usage of the devices and their apps. As we will see in the
following sections, the increased use of smart devices, in combination with
full mobility, has led to significant benefits for users, as well as challenges to
overcome to ensure that the mobile Internet continues to deliver benefits to
existing users and the next billions who will come online.
64
Data provided global and broken into regions
NAM
SSA
Internet users: 84%
Mobile Internet penetration: 69%
3G Population Coverage: 99%
Internet users: 17%
Mobile Internet penetration: 8%
3G Population Coverage: 35%
CALA
MENA
Internet users: 47%
Mobile Internet penetration: 34%
3G Population Coverage: 83%
Internet users: 39%
Mobile Internet penetration: 23%
3G Population Coverage: 72%
WE
EMAP
Internet users: 79%
Mobile internet penetration: 64%
3G Population Coverage: 97%
Internet users: 28%
Mobile Internet penetration: 17%
3G Population Coverage: 13%
CEE
DVAP
Internet users: 57%
Mobile Internet penetration: 44%
3G Population Coverage: 70%
Internet users: 84%
Mobile Internet penetration: 103%
3G Population Coverage: 99%
North America
Caribbean and Latin America
Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
Emerging Asia Pacific
Developed Asia Pacific
Source: Internet users, ITU 2014; Mobile Internet penetration, Analysys Mason Research 2014; 3G population coverage, ITU 2013
Note as discussed above that mobile Internet coverage, which includes 2.5G, is not available, and is thus understated by using 3G population
coverage.
Global Internet Report 2015
65
Annex
66
Definition of world regions
WESTERN
EUROPE
• Andorra
• Austria
• Belgium
• Cyprus
• Denmark
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Greece
• Iceland
• Ireland
• Italy
• Liechtenstein
• Luxembourg
• Malta
• Monaco
• Netherlands
• Norway
• Portugal
• San Marino
• Spain
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• United Kingdom
CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EUROPE
• Albania
• Belarus
• Bosnia and
Herzegovina
• Bulgaria
• Croatia
• Czech Republic
• Estonia
• Hungary
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• T.F.Y.R. Macedonia
• Moldova (Rep. of)
• Montenegro
• Poland
• Romania
• Russian Federation
• Serbia
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Turkey
• Ukraine
NORTH AMERICA
• Canada
• United States of
America
DEVELOPED
ASIA-PACIFIC
• Australia
• Brunei Darussalam
• French Polynesia
• Guam
• Hong Kong (S.A.R.)
• Japan
• Macao (S.A.R.)
• New Caledonia
• New Zealand
• Northern Marianas
Islands
• Singapore
• Korea (Rep. of)
• Taiwan, Province of
China
EMERGING
ASIA-PACIFIC
• Afghanistan
• American Samoa
• Armenia
• Azerbaijan
• Bangladesh
• Bhutan
• Cambodia
• China
• Cook Islands
• Fiji
• Georgia
• India
• Indonesia
• Kazakhstan
• Kiribati
• Kyrgyzstan
• Lao P.D.R.
• Malaysia
• Maldives
• Marshall Islands
• Micronesia
(Fed. States of)
• Mongolia
• Myanmar
• Nauru
• Nepal
• Niue
• Dem. People’s Rep.
of Korea
• Pakistan
• Palau
• Papua
New Guinea
• Philippines
• Samoa
• Solomon
Islands
• Sri Lanka
• Tajikistan
• Thailand
• Timor-Leste
• Tonga
• Turkmenistan
• Tuvalu
• Uzbekistan
• Vanuatu
• Viet Nam
MIDDLE EAST AND
NORTH AFRICA
• Algeria
• Bahrain
• Egypt
• Iran (Islamic Rep. of)
• Iraq
• Israel
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Libya
• Morocco
• Oman
• Palestine (State of)
• Qatar
• Saudi Arabia
• Syrian Arab Republic
• Tunisia
• United Arab Emirates
• Yemen
CARIBBEAN AND LATIN AMERICA
• Anguilla
• Antigua and Barbuda
• Netherlands Antilles
• Argentina
• Aruba
• Bahamas
• Barbados
• Belize
• Bermuda
• Bolivia (Plurinational
State of)
• Brazil
• Cayman Islands
• Chile
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• Cuba
• Dominica
• Dominican Republic
• Ecuador
• El Salvador
• Grenada
• Guatemala
• Guyana
• Haiti
• Honduras
• Jamaica
• Mexico
• Montserrat
• Nicaragua
• Panama
• Paraguay
• Peru
• Puerto Rico
• Saint Kitts and Nevis
• Saint Lucia
• Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines
• Suriname
• Trinidad and Tobago
• Turks and Caicos
Islands
• Uruguay
• Venezuela (Bolivarian
Republic of)
• Virgin Islands (British)
• Virgin Islands (US)
SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA
• Angola
• Benin
• Botswana
• Burkina Faso
• Burundi
• Cameroon
• Cabo Verde
• Central African
Republic
• Chad
• Comoros
• Congo
• Côte d’Ivoire
• Congo (Dem. Rep.
of the)
• Djibouti
• Equatorial Guinea
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia
• Gabon
• Gambia
• Ghana
• Guinea
• Guinea-Bissau
• Kenya
• Lesotho
• Liberia
• Madagascar
• Malawi
• Mali
• Mauritania
• Mauritius
• Mayotte
• Mozambique
• Namibia
• Niger
• Nigeria
• Réunion
• Rwanda
• Sao Tome
and Principe
• Senegal
• Seychelles
• Sierra Leone
• Somalia
• South Africa
• Saint Helena
• Sudan
• Swaziland
• Tanzania (United
Rep. of)
• Togo
• Uganda
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe
Regional groupings according to Analysys Mason; Country names from United Nations Statistical Division
Global Internet Report 2015
67
Section 3
Benefits of the Mobile Internet
75%
FAST FOOD
MOBILE
INTERNET
Sacrifices
users are
willing to make
for mobile
access
74%
NEWSPAPER
67%
ALCOHOL
62%
BOOKS
Source: BCG, 2014
68
The mobile Internet has grown to be a significant economic sector in its
own right, generating significant revenues across the value chain including
the network, devices, and apps. According to the Boston Consulting Group
(BCG), across 13 countries accountable for 70% of global GDP*, 2013
revenues directly related to the Mobile Internet were EUR512 billion.1
However, this severely understates the impact of the mobile Internet, not just on
the broader economy, but on users around the world. As we show in this section,
the mobile Internet has been adopted across almost all sectors, including
government, healthcare, and entertainment, with a variety of innovations that
take advantage of both full mobility and the features of smart devices.
As a result, the mobile Internet has become an integral part of users’ lives,
not just enabling us to communicate with our friends and family, but track
our health, interact with our government, entertain ourselves, and even help
earning a living. As a result, in a 2014 survey BCG estimated the consumer
surplus of the mobile Internet to be at EUR2,764 billion across the set of 13
countries*, a multiple of 500% of mobile Internet revenues alone.
CONSUMER SURPLUS
Consumer surplus is the economic value to consumers for goods
and services (also known as the willingness to pay), above what
they actually paid for them.
Mobile Internet revenues
(EUR billion)
2013 Mobile Internet revenues
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
Revenues
Consumer Surplus
Consumer Surplus
Network/infrastructure operating expenses
Access (service providers)
Enablement platforms, devices and mobile
Apps, Content and Services
Source: BCG, 2014
* The 13 countries are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, United Kingdom, United States.
See Source: https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/telecommunications_digital_economy_
devices_mobile_internet_economy/#chapter1
1
Global Internet Report 2015
69
Just as mobile Internet adoption has leap-frogged that of fixed in many
countries, so have the services it enables. While such leap-frogging is
typically seen in developing countries, such as in the case of M-Pesa
providing payment services for those without previous access to the
formal financial system in markets such as Kenya, there is also some
element of this taking place in developed countries as well. For example,
a 2013 Nielsen study of the US online retail and financial services
markets found that over 50% of survey respondents bank exclusively with
mobile devices.
In addition to leap-frogging of existing services, mobile Internet services
offer new functionality. It is not just that we can access the same services
outside of the home or office, but the services themselves are different
based on the features of the smart devices and how they interact with the
Internet. The smart device can combine video from the camera with crowd
knowledge about where we are or where we are going; it can be woken
with a movement to analyse our speed and positioning; and, as we look
forward to the Internet of things, the smart devices themselves make up
an array of billions of advanced sensors that can provide data about our
surroundings.
Of course, many of these benefits are only accessible using information
that may be personal and sensitive, about where we are, where we are
going, and what we are doing. Further, many of these benefits arise
through new intermediaries that provide us with the apps that we use and
the devices that we use them with. The next section will cover the flip side
of the story presented here – describing the challenges that arise directly
from the benefits that the mobile Internet is making available.
70
Outline
THE
MOBILE
INTERNET
AND...
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
LIVELIHOOD
EDUCATION
ACCESSIBILITY
GOVERNANCE
HEALTH
PERSONAL SECURITY
ENTERTAINMENT
THE INTERNET
OF THINGS
SMART CITIES
Global Internet Report 2015
71
The Mobile Internet and
Entrepreneurship
The mobile Internet has created new opportunities for entrepreneurs. We
highlight this benefit up front for two reasons. First, the opportunity to create
income, and even a fortune, is critical in this age, and the mobile Internet
extends this opportunity to millions around the world who may not have
formerly had access to the ingredients to innovate, or the marketplace to sell
the outcome. Second, many innovations typically address local opportunities
and gaps with local solutions, and indeed a number of the services
highlighted in the following sections came about through individuals or small
groups seeking to improve the lives of those closest to them.
The opportunity (and challenges) created by the mobile Internet for
entrepreneurs is well illustrated by the story of Wilfred Mworia, a 22 year old
student who greeted the announcement of the Apple App Store in 2008 by
developing an app providing details on events in his home city of Nairobi,
Kenya. This itself was not remarkable, as he was certainly not alone in
anticipating the opportunity – what was remarkable, however, was that he
developed and released the app without ever using an iPhone. In an article
at the time, he stated that even though he did not have an iPhone, “I can still
have a world market for my work”.2
Mr. Mworia proved to be as prescient as he was determined. The mobile
Internet is now a truly world market of over two billion users with access to
app stores. The benefits are not yet fully available, as we note in Section 2
that there are many countries that do not yet have app stores, and thus it is
not possible to buy or sell apps there. Nonetheless, total downloads to-date
are well over 100 billion apps, and total app revenues are expected to reach
77 billion by 2017.3
The mobile Internet is not just a marketplace, however. The mobile Internet
also provides access to the ingredients needed to innovate: access to
educational resources; tools for research on innovations; access to open
source software and services; mentorship platforms to contact business
leaders for advice; and crowdfunding platforms to raise money for the
innovation.4
The mobile Internet has
created new opportunities
for entrepreneurs.
TWO
REASONS
1
2
the opportunity
to create income
local solutions
See http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/business/worldbusiness/20ping.html?_r=0.
See http://www.businessinsider.com/gartner-mobile-apps-will-generate-77-billion-in-revenue-by-20172014-1?IR=T.
4
See Kende, Michael, “ICTs for Inclusive Growth: E-Entrepreneurship on the Open Internet”, World
Economic Forum Global Information Technology Report 2015, April 2015, http://reports.weforum.org/globalinformation-technology-report-2015/1-4-icts-for-inclusive-growth-e-entrepreneurship-on-the-open-internet/.
2
3
72
2009
WhatsApp
instant messaging
application
WAS
PURCHASED
BY
Facebook
for USD 19 billion in 2014,
when it reached 500 million users
The results have been astonishing. WhatsApp, an instant messaging
application, introduced in 2009 was purchased by Facebook for USD
19 billion in 2014, when it reached 500 million users. One of the top
grossing video apps, Puzzles & Dragons, earned more than USD 2.5
billion in its first two years after release.
While these apps generate significant notice and attract more
developers to reach their rewards, it is worth looking beyond the
headlines. In particular, these Apps benefit from a ‘winner takes all’
phenomenon, where there is little incentive to use the second most
popular messaging service or game, when there is no limit on using the
first one.
Relatedly, these apps are also not the job generators that we might
all wish for, particularly as many economies are developing and/or
growing out of the aftermath of the fiscal crisis of the last decade. For
instance, WhatsApp has 55 employees, while the developer of Puzzles
& Dragons, GungHo Online Entertainment, has 333 employees, not all
working on the game. The economics are simple – unlike traditional
products requiring more workers to produce more output, downloading
new copies of Instagram does not depend on more new employees.
However, as we see in the next section, income from the mobile Internet
does not just come from the latest app, but brings benefits to even the
most traditional of livelihoods.
EMPLOYEES
WhatsApp
Puzzles & Dragons
55
333
Global Internet Report 2015
73
WINNER TAKES ALL
The Winner Takes All phenomenon arises when there are few,
if any, constraints to meet all demand. While the second-best
restaurant in a town will have good prospects because the best
restaurant will fill up, the best or most popular app in a category will
never reach capacity, and thus there are few guarantees for the
second-best app.
The Mobile Internet
and Livelihood
The effects of the mobile Internet on livelihoods around the globe can
be life-changing, impacting those whose daily lives are otherwise little
touched by access to modern technology. Mobile technology is unique in
helping to reach people in the remotest areas and giving them access to
the kind of support and structure that can enable them to improve their
livelihood and move beyond a subsistence way of living. For instance,
farmers can learn the latest information about how to raise their crops or
cattle, and also pricing information for which they formerly had to rely on
an intermediary.
Given the obstacles that can occur on a day to day basis during ordinary
working life, these apps have created unique solutions to directly address
pressing problems. Ultimately they help compensate for existing gaps
in support in rural areas and level the playing field and improve the
competiveness of farmers, fisherman, and others directly impacted.
However, as discussed in the previous section, local solutions typically
require local knowledge, and even entrepreneurs within a country may be
more focused on their own more urban environment.
An example of the importance of local solutions is highlighted in the LIFE APPs television series
on Aljazeera English, which challenges young app developers to visit the remotest villages,
experience the obstacles and struggles faced by the inhabitants in their daily lives, and develop
apps helping to combat some of these issues.5 This is happening in Kenya, Rio’s Favelas,
Uganda, India and Namibia.6
See http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/life-apps/ and http://www.screenafrica.com/page/news/
africa/1637254-Life-Apps-Helping-Kenyas-subsistence-farmers#.VST4YxOUdfw.
6
See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-CYjaNK-q8.
5
74
Transition from SMS to Mobile apps
In order to address the widest possible market, and given the overwhelming
traditional prevalence of basic and feature phones, particularly in rural and
low income areas, many livelihood services originated using SMS, which
limited the information provided to short simple messages.
Recently, with the growth of the mobile Internet, and leap-frogging of
smartphones, these services are now branching out and taking advantage
of the app environment and capabilities of smart devices, to provide more
details as well as more visual interaction to overcome literacy challenges.7
For instance, iCow, which started as an SMS-based messaging service,
now has a mobile app which features video content. According to statistics
provided by iCow, (from a survey of 100 random users in Kenya) over 60%
of phone types bought in the last 3 years were now smartphones.
ICOW
Is a service in Kenya aimed at small-scale dairy farmers. iCow
essentially acts as a guide to cow rearing for local farmers. The app
provides information on animal nutrition, milk production and gestation
as well as helping farmers track the estrus stages of their cows.
One of those who benefited almost immediately from the app is
Rachel from Nyanhuru Kenya, who owns 5 cows. Since using iCow,
her milk yield has increased, with some cows going from 10-12 liters
up to 18 liters per day, while she has been able to improve hygiene
and raise healthier animals. Due to this app, what once could be a
financial liability is now a viable source of income for Rachel.
M-Farm
ONLINE
MARKETPLACE
For a substantial number of low-income farmers, the only accessible avenue
for information on market rates are potential buyers or ‘middlemen’. This
creates a problem, as with each participant trying to get the best deal, only
one side is privy to the relevant information, giving all the power to middlemen
and potential buyers.
M-Farm is an app in Kenya that addresses this imbalance between seller and
buyer. The app gives daily crop prices and provides price trends in order to
enable farmers to make informed decisions about when to plant, how to price
and where to sell.8 M-farm also features an online marketplace for farmers,
which gives them the chance to collaborate and essentially cut out the middle
man.
M-Farm has expanded outside Kenya to a number of African countries where
the app has helped to revitalize the agricultural industry. As Bawa Yamusah,9
a farmer from Ghana testifies, the app has had an immense benefit on his
livelihood, enabling him to pay for his family’s education and health needs.
See http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-icow-m-farm-smartphones-reboot-african-agriculture/2702106.
html.
8
See http://www.new-ag.info/en/developments/devItem.php?a=2909.
9
See ttp://www.news24.com/Green/News/Mobile-app-helps-African-farmers-turn-a-profit-20140728.
7
Global Internet Report 2015
75
Originating as an SMS based app, M-farm has evolved into taking full advantage of
smartphone capabilities and now features an online marketplace, further benefiting lowvolume farmers.
Fisher Friend Mobile Application
LOCATION
The 2004 tsunami had a major impact in southern India, with many
rural villages affected. In addition to the immediate impact on lives and
property, the tsunami illustrated how exposed the livelihoods of those in
fishing villages were to the mercy of the elements. In order to increase
the technological capacity of these fishermen, the Fisher Friend Mobile
Application was created, to provide real time data on weather and sea
conditions and pinpoint emergencies, but also to help locate promising
concentrations of fish.10
Sakthivel, a 33-year-old craft fisherman from T.R. Pattinacherry in
Karaikal, Pondicherry, illustrates the benefits of this app. Sakthivel uses
the app to identify rocky areas at sea, helping to avoid dangerous routes
and cut down the time and fuel needed, resulting in a decrease in cost.
Using location information to find fish, Sakthivel has now made a profit of
Rs. 5000 on capturing oil sardine fish. As well as benefiting himself, he
has also been broadcasting information on the dangerous routes to help
his friends.
Fisher Friend makes fishing more profitable as well as safer for more than
500 fishermen to date. And for them, aside from the increase in revenue
and profits, this app allows them to take control of their livelihoods without
being a victim of environmental conditions.
The Mobile Internet
and Education
The mobile Internet does not just directly impact livelihood, but also
indirectly can help with the education needed to learn a trade, as well
as general education. New tools are being developed that allow the
exploitation of the features of the mobile Internet to enhance learning
experiences, a service sometimes called m-learning. For example,
downloadable podcasts of lectures and instant messaging interactions
with peers or teachers are tools that can be used away from traditional
learning spaces.
10
76
See http://www.mssrf.org/content/stories-transformation and http://www.oecd.org/aidfortrade/48367406.pdf.
M-learning has proven to be particularly popular in developing countries,
where it is used both to support more traditional classroom experiences
as well as stand alone. In 2014, survey data showed that 24% of people
in developing countries were regularly using the mobile Internet for
educational purposes, alongside 12% of those in developed markets.
Appreciation for the benefits of m-learning is also higher in emerging
markets, where a different survey found that 68% of respondents in
Nigeria and 66% of those in Kenya felt that using the mobile Internet for
online learning provided a “great improvement” to their lives, while 44% of
those in the UK shared this sentiment. This is not surprising, as there are
significantly more traditional educational alternatives in developed countries
that pre-date m-learning.
MAGIC PENCIL
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
BOOK
An interactive education tool providing
both instructor-led and collaborative
learning, offering university course
content via video lectures, case studies,
articles and blogs anytime and anywhere
with mobile Internet connectivity.
Mumbai, India
Allows flexibility for both students and
teachers, enabling students to study at
their own pace and providing teachers
with a tool through which to plan and
structure their courses. The app offers
the benefit of easy peer-to-peer and
student-teacher interaction as well as
use of interactive content and study tools,
making learning more engaging.
Global Internet Report 2015
77
The Mobile Internet
and Accessibility
The mobile Internet is important for everyone, not least those with disabilities.
Users with disability may in fact rely more on mobile services. For example
they may have greater reliance on online shopping or banking services if they
find these more accessible than physically visiting retail outlets.
The mobile Internet can help those who experience speech, hearing or
other types of communication disabilities to communicate more efficiently
than before, for instance by adding video to calls. Additional tools, taking
advantage of smart device capabilities to send sound, location data and
images, have been developed for use via app or mobile web browser to help
persons with disabilities. Features such as the iPhone’s VoiceOver, which
enables people with vision impairment to operate the device with synthetic
speech and touch-based interface, are proving hugely beneficial in opening
up the mobile Internet to blind people.
Both the nature of the mobile Internet and the tools developed are encouraging
mobile adoption among people with disability. A March 2013 research
conducted by Web Accessibility in Mind has found that 58% of those surveyed
with a motor disability use mobile access to the Internet, 36% of whom take
advantage of mobile accessibility settings on their phone. Take-up by people
with low vision is even higher, at 80% of those surveyed (with 13% using mobile
as their primary Internet-access device and 63% using accessibility settings).11
When accessibility is built into mainstream devices, people with disability
can gain the benefit from the mobile Internet just like anyone else. There are
thousands of apps for people with disability – we highlight a select few here
as examples.12
BE MY EYES
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
CAMERA
An app that connects blind people with
volunteer helpers from around the world
via live video chat to assist with tasks
from knowing the expiry date on the milk
to navigating new surroundings.
Copenhagen, Denmark
Within 12 days of launch, the app attracted
99,000 helpers worldwide, while 8,000
blind people signed up seeking help.
The fact that the app uses volunteers
allows the service to be provided for free,
supporting blind users in handling big and
small tasks as and when required in an
easy and informal way.
See http://webaim.org/projects/.
For a broader, but by no means definitive, sample of such apps, see http://www.callscotland.org.uk/
Common-Assets/ckfinder/userfiles/files/iPad-Apps-for-Complex-Communication-Support-Needs.pdf.
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/harvard-scientists-send-the-first-transatlantic-smell-89078729859.html
11
12
78
TURKCELL MY
DREAM PARTNER
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
AXS MAPS
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
LOCATION
The app offers access to daily news,
thousands of books, location services,
education and entertainment content in
audio format. Through its speech-to-text
technology, users of the service can take
and share notes independently.
Turkey
Of the 800 thousand visually disabled
people in turkey, only 5% have
completed education due to challenges
disseminating information to the blind.
The app enables independent learning as
well as access to news for the country’s
blind population. In 2014, the app served
6,250 subscribers with an average of
7,500-minutes-a-day total listening time.
By 2015 the number of subscribers had
risen to 110,000.
An app that uses crowd-sourced
information to help identify places
accessible to people using canes,
walkers, wheelchairs or families with
strollers. The app uses a competitive
“mapathon” format to encourage the
inputting of data.
USA
The App gives users on-the-go information
on the accessibility of routes and locations,
allowing them to efficiently plan travel.
Global Internet Report 2015
79
ICOMM
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
This app is designed by a father
after his daughter was diagnosed
with cerebral palsy to ease everyday
conversations through the use of
pictures and sound clips
USA
The app is helpful with pre-speech
toddlers or children with certain
communication impairments, allowing the
child to indicate their needs by looking at
one of four panels and selecting which
panel they’d like from the set. The app has
the additional benefit that users add their
own pictures and voice to heighten child
engagement.
The Mobile Internet
and Governance
The Mobile Internet is increasingly being adopted by local and national
governments to conduct elements of governance and service management.
The Mobile Internet has the benefit of being able to make public information
and government services available on an “anytime, anywhere” basis. These
services can be delivered to citizens, businesses, government employees
and within the government.
The use of the Mobile Internet in service delivery may be particularly
important in emerging markets, where the take-up of mobile relative to, for
example, fixed internet is high and poor fixed communications infrastructure
has limited government communications initiatives in the past.
Use of the online government services is migrating to mobile even when
no mobile-specific applications have been developed. In the UK, the
government is documenting the shift in visits to its websites from computers
to smart devices. The effect on the government’s e-petition service has
been perhaps most striking, with visits from mobile devices up from 25%
of all visits in January 2012 to 73% by January 2014. The UK government
is now requiring that all its websites be designed to accommodate a broad
range of devices and screen sizes.13
As shown below, a number of governments are also using the mobile
Internet to create a ‘Smart City’ that runs more efficiently than before.
13
80
See https://www.gov.uk/service-manual/user-centred-design/browsers-and-devices.html.
CITIZEN’S
CONNECT
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
ESTONIAN
DIGITAL SOCIETY
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
ID
The app allows users to complete
tasks including checking and paying
outstanding or advance property tax,
obtain birth and death certificates, register
complaints, check business registration
certificate details and checking
recruitment advertisements
Surat, India
This app helps increase efficiency, saving
citizens’ time and had 50 thousand
downloads at year end 2014
Estonia has developed the first “digital
society”, allowing tasks such as
business registration, taxation, medical
prescriptions and voting to be carried out
online. Within this system are a number
of mobile components, including parking,
mobile ID and mobile payments.
Estonia
The Estonian mobile ID card serves as
proof of ID when utilising online services,
it can be used for accessing secure
e-services and digitally signing documents,
but has the advantage over the e-ID
card previously rolled out in Estonia of
not requiring a card reader. It additionally
uses its authentication tools to allow
participation in voting.
Global Internet Report 2015
81
The Mobile Internet
and Health
The advancement of mobile technology is enabling healthcare delivery via
smart devices. Mobile healthcare, or mHealth, applications comprise a variety
of services, from those that encourage the adoption and tracking of “healthy”
habits, such as fitness tracking apps, to those that help diagnosis or monitor
health parameters such as heart rate and blood glucose data for remote
patients. Such service have been growing in popularity, with the GSMA
reporting 1125 deployed mHealth products and services as of February 2015.
While mHealth popularity and applications are universal, the services
enabled are particularly popular in countries where access to traditional
healthcare is less advanced and smartphone penetration is rising rapidly.
According to PWC, 59% of patients in emerging markets in 2012 were using
mHealth, compared to 35% in developed markets.
The popularity of mHealth service is expected to continue to grow rapidly,
with revenues forecast to more than triple from 2014 to 2017, as shown
on right as shown below.
Smartphones have a number of inbuilt features that enable them to act as diagnostic tools. These
include their ability to connect to sensors worn on the body to monitor vital signs as well as the
use of the phone camera to analyse the colour of test strips and apps allowing patients to track
changes in their eyesight from home using the large screens to provide a shape discrimination test.
Worldwide mobile health revenue
Worldwide mobile health
revenue (USD billion)
25
23.0
20
15.4
15
10.2
10
5
0
6.9
4.5
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: “Touching lives through mobile health: Assessment of the global market
opportunity”, GSMA report by pwc, February 2012
82
SANA MOBILE
HEALTH
PLATFORM
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
CAMERA
HEALTH
ON iOS8
WATCH/
ALARM CLOCK
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
The Sana app connects community
health workers and medical specialists,
allowing the transmission of medical data.
Based out of MIT, USA with projects in
areas such as India, Mexico, Greece and
Philippines.
The ability to transfer data allows for real
time support from remote specialists in
clinical decisions. This app is open source
and customisable and has been used for
purposes such as early detection of oral
cancer in rural India as well as treatment
of diabetes in Greece, acting both as
the eyes and ears of clinicians and as a
portable medical record for patients.
An app automatically available on
Apple iPhones that is designed to
improve users health, using the
iPhones motion sensors and location
data to monitor physical activity as well
as aggregate third-party health and
fitness apps.
USA
The App aggregates all of the user’s
personal health information using
different apps and fitness devices into
one place. This both allows information
sharing across apps as well as acting
as an emergency medical ID.
LOCATION
Global Internet Report 2015
83
The Mobile Internet
and Personal Security
There is perhaps no more valuable use of the power of the mobile Internet
than for ensuring the safety of ourselves, families, and neighbors.
LOCATION
In Malaysia, James Khoo’s sister was missing for several days with no
contact, having been in a serious car accident. He then realized that a
smartphone could be programmed to send out its location if the owner did
not arrive at a pre-announced location within a pre-set time, and created a
personal safety app to do that called Watch Over Me. He was joined by Chin
Xin-Ci as a co-founder, who had narrowly escaped a kidnapping attempt,
leading to a new feature allowing the user to simply shake the phone, which
turned on the video automatically and sent it along with the location to family
or friends to help rescue the victim and identify the perpetrator.
Similarly, in Kenya, when violence broke out following the election in 2007,
several developers set out to use mobility to gain strength from numbers.
The result was Ushahidi, a program allowing users to provide the location
where violence was occurring through their phones, enabling others to avoid
it. Ushahidi is now an open source software for crowdmapping, and has been
adapted around the world for disaster relief following earthquakes in Haiti and
Japan, and even to track the progress of snowplows in Washington DC.
The Mobile Internet
and Entertainment
Entertainment apps constitute a significant portion of the overall usage
of apps on Android and IOS platforms, and gaming constitutes a large
portion of entertainment, based on time spent and revenue, accounting for
79% of Apple’s App Store revenue and 92% of Google Play’s.14
One of the major successes in this genre is Dead Trigger 2, which is
a first person multiplayer shooter game. Launched in 2013, this app
currently has over 40 million downloads15. It utilizes real time story
development which is influenced by the participation of every player.
Ultimately this app, and apps like this, are helping mobile gaming
compete more successfully with the sophistication of more traditional
console gaming, while being more convenient due to its portability.
See http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/11/01/games-drive-the-most-revenue-on-apples-appstore-and-google-play/.
15
See http://www.148apps.com/app/720063540/.
14
84
GAMES
Another app that also employs the multiplayer feature is Clash of Clans.
Again an emphasis of this game is to interact globally with other players in
order to further heighten the gaming experience. At the forefront of 2014’s
billion dollar mobile games16, Clash of Clans is a strategy game with the
aim to build and protect territory. With over a 100 million downloads, and
a daily revenue of 1,639,220 USD in the US alone, the popularity of this
game and games like it, constitute a significant use of the mobile Internet.
Top grossing iOS mobile gaming apps in the United
States as of February 2015
1,639,220
Clash of Clans
Game of War - Fire Age
1,145,999
Candy Crush Saga
978,065
Candy Crush Soda Saga
397,734
Boom Beach
313,883
Big fish Casino - Free Slots,
Vegas Slots & Slot T
263,321
Farm Heroes Saga
220,763
Hay Day
186,209
Hit it Rich! Free Casino Slots
159,662
GNS Casino - Slots, Bingo,
Video Poker and more!
141,117
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
Daily revenue in U.S. dollars
Source: Statista, 201517
An emerging trend in the mobile gaming sphere is bringing beloved family games onto the mobile
internet, using the multiplayer app platform, introducing a new generation to these timeless
games. Essentially these mobile apps could be classed as bridging the gap between old and new,
and making the mobile internet accessible to a larger audience.
See graph below.
See http://www.statista.com/statistics/263988/top-grossing-mobile-ios-gaming-apps-ranked-by-dailyrevenue/.
16
17
Global Internet Report 2015
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G
A
B
SCRABBLE
One classic game which has made a move to the mobile screen is
Scrabble, which also belongs to the online multi player genre. Being
promoted as a way to “connect with friends” anywhere, it also enables one
to learn from the game what the best word would have been.
The Mobile Internet of Things
In addition to the mobile Internet, enabling users to connect to the Internet
using smart devices, wireless technology enables smart devices to
become part of the Internet of Things.
INTERNET OF THINGS
The Internet of Things, also known as M2M, or Machine to
Machine, involves both everyday and industrial objects such as
watches, keys, household appliances, vehicles, machinery and
buildings to be embedded with chips and sensors, allowing them to
“think”, “feel”, and “talk” with each other, communicate with people
and enable us to monitor and control them anytime and anywhere.
The total number of “things” connected to the Internet is growing
rapidly, having first exceeded the global population in 2008 and
is forecast to rise to exceed 50 billion in 2020. It is expected
that eventually 99% of everything produced will be connected
to the Internet. This growth in connectivity is projected to result
in connected device revenues of USD1.2 trillion in 2020, 6× the
USD200 million revenues in 2013.
Connections to the Internet of
Things (billion)
Connections to the Internet of Things
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
Source: Cisco, 2015
86
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
In particular, based on the functions built into the smart devices, anyone
carrying a smart device is potentially part of a worldwide network of sensors
that can gather information based on their surroundings, and aggregate
them into accurate information about health, traffic, and even weather.
In the mHealth section we discussed how the sensors in smart devices could be used to track
the fitness and assess the health of the owner. This requires the direct involvement of the user,
interacting with the app. In addition, work by MIT professor Alex Pentland has shown that it
is possible to use mobile phone records to diagnose flu and track outbreaks, by aggregating
background information from many users, without their direct engagement, potentially allowing
early intervention by health care professionals to stop the spread.
SUNSHINE APP
WHAT IS IT?
LOCATION
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WEATHER
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
An interactive smartphone app that uses
smartphone sensors to provide localized
weather conditions.18 Also in newer
Android and IOS models which include
barometers, the phones can be used to
measure atmospheric pressure at the
user’s location, which can then signal
changes in the weather. It was due to be
released in April 2015.
USA, co-founded by Katerina Stropiati, it
is currently in beta testing stage around
the San Francisco bay area, New York
and in the Dallas area.
The app makes use of community data
to keep it interactive and locally based.
This means that greater accuracy can be
gained because of the localized nature of
the updates.
BAROMETER
See http://www.technologyreview.com/news/535761/hows-the-weather-there-crowdsourcing-apppromises-better-forecasts/.
18
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WAZE
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
LOCATION
88
A community based location-based
navigation app which provides real time
traffic information for drivers. This also
includes Waze community edited maps
and live routing. A driver will switch on
the app while driving, which will passively
collect road data. This includes any
hindrances on the road, such as traffic
etc. However, one can also update
on any sudden occurrences such as
accidents or emergency road blocks in
order to update other drivers. The app
also uses online map editors, who update
frequently. It currently has over 50 million
downloads.
Israel, cofounded by Amir Shinar, Uri
Levine and Ehud Shabtai. Acquired by
Google in 2013.
This app lays emphasis on creating a
community of drivers to share information.
Not only is its real time data invaluable for
daily drivers/commuters, but its framework
fosters local networks which is much
more accurate for a driver. This results
in journeys being potentially shortened,
saving time and money.
Waze has also been instrumental in
monitoring and alleviating heavy traffic
arising from high profile events, such as
the recent visit of Pope Francis to the
Philippines in January 2015.
The Mobile Internet
and Smart Cities
LOCATION
One focused use of the capabilities of the mobile Internet of Things relates to
the creation of smart cities. Smart cities is a term used to describe cities that
have adopted digital technologies, including mobile networks, to enhance
the performance of infrastructure related services, reduce costs and develop
more effective communication channels with citizens. While early smart city
developments used fixed technologies, mobile is becoming increasingly
popular due to a number of benefits it has beyond other communication
channels:
•
the popularity of mobile allows for more citizens to be involved, both in
data gathering and accessing the smart city services using their existing
devices and access
•
mobility allowing service to be delivered to citizens anytime and
anywhere, rather than when users are at a fixed terminal
•
the inbuilt features of smartphones allowing them to be used as a
network of sensors, providing information based on the location of the
user.
Key smart sectors include transport, such as ticketing applications and traffic
monitoring systems. In one interesting example, Orange released 5 months
of anonymised mobile data from the Ivory Coast as part of an initiative called
Data for Development. IBM used the data to analyse commuting patterns
in the capital, Abidjan, and designed a more efficient bus system that would
save up to 10% on average travel times.19
This use of mobile devices to access other bits of technology has been illustrated as part of the
Royal Institute of Science’s 2014 Christmas Lecture series, with the windows of the Shell Centre,
a London skyscraper, transformed into a playable Tetris-style game.20
19
20
See http://www.technologyreview.com/news/514211/african-bus-routes-redrawn-using-cell-phone-data/.
See http://www.rigb.org/about/news/winter-2014/london-skyscraper-comes-alive-with-computer-game
Global Internet Report 2015
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QLUE
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
LOCATION
STREET
BUMP
WHAT IS IT?
WHERE DID IT
ORIGINATE?
WHY IS IT
IMPORTANT?
LOCATION
90
Qlue is a government sponsored mobile
app that allows Jakarta residents to
find and provide real time information
about traffic conditions, weather and
threat alerts, based on their location.
Additionally, the platform enables a chat
feature with neighbouring users and
relevant government employees and
access to a live CCTV feed to monitor the
local area.
Jakarta, Indonesia
This app is an early step in the local
government making use of communication
technology and working with local
technology start-ups to increase the
accountability and transparency in the
local administration. As of February 2015
the app had 15,000 registered users
and city council staff are making use of
the crowd sourced data to improve city
services
An app that once downloaded uses the
smartphone’s inbuilt motions sensors,
accelerometer, and location-awareness to
collect conditions on roads driven by the
user.
Boston
If three or more bumps occur at the same
location, the city will inspect the obstacle
and assign it to a queue for short-term
repair or record its location to assist with
long-term repair planning. This streamlined
method of pothole reporting has a huge
advantage over the traditional need to call
a hotline or find and submit an online form.
Conclusion
The mobile Internet is a general purpose technology, which impacts
all manners of business, government, and social activities. While the
revenues surrounding the delivery and usage of the mobile Internet are
large, and growing, they understate the true benefits in monetary terms,
and miss the non-monetary benefits of the technology.
The mobile Internet impacts our livelihoods, offers opportunities to
innovate, monitor our health and safety, become educated, interact with
government, keep in touch with family and friends, provide access for
people with disabilities, and not least entertain ourselves. These benefits
are perhaps nowhere more felt than in developing countries, where
mobile technology has long since leap-frogged fixed, enabling mobile
Internet services to provide key services to those otherwise un- or underserved.
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Section 4
Challenges of the Mobile Internet
EVOLUTION
DEVELOPMENT
92
We have seen the growth of the mobile Internet and increased use
worldwide, based on the benefits that it brings to users as more services
and applications become available. Here, we examine five challenges
presented by the introduction of mobility and advanced features of the
smart device, in terms of the resulting evolution of the Internet and the
impact on development:
EVOLUTION
1
2
3
Smart devices enable services such as location
awareness and include features such as
cameras; the flip side of the coin is increased
privacy issues
Usage of the mobile Internet depends on a
number of wireless interfaces and access to
apps; these lead to heightened security issues
Apps provide convenient access to the
advanced features of the phone such as the
GPS or camera; but app stores create costs
for developers and customers and may limit
competition
DEVELOPMENT
4
More users are doing more with the mobile
Internet; is there enough spectrum available?
5
Mobile Internet is the way the next billion are
going to get online; will this close the digital
divide?
Global Internet Report 2015
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94
EVOLUTION
Global Internet Report 2015
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1
Privacy
The mobile Internet brings significant benefits to users, as seen in
Section 3. However, the downside is that there are increased privacy
concerns based on the additional information generated by these new
uses.
?
Of course, privacy has always been an issue surrounding the Internet,
growing in prominence in step with our increased usage and reliance on
the Internet as part of our daily lives and growing awareness of security
risks. However, these concerns are magnified here because of the
intrinsic nature of the mobile Internet – as a result of full mobility we can
interact with the Internet for more of the day from virtually anywhere,
and the unique features of the smart devices allow for more advanced
services.
As a result, we can use the mobile Internet for mHealth, mobile money,
interaction with government, and social networking, generating a
significant amount of personal and sensitive data. In particular, much of
this data is new, because many of these services would not be feasible
without the mobile Internet.
LOCATION
96
To highlight some of the new privacy concerns generated by the mobile
Internet, we will focus on the example of location-based services (LBS),
such as navigation apps that are based on knowing where the device is
located. Such services sit at the heart of the mobile Internet; they rely on
full mobility, and they are enabled by the location awareness of smart
devices. Data on where we have been, where we are, and possibly even
where we are going is the definition of personal data and, for many, and
in many situations, it is also sensitive data. While such services provide
significant benefits, as detailed in the previous section, such benefits must
be weighed against privacy concerns.
As an example, the UK Data Protection Act has the following definition of
personal and sensitive data1:
PERSONAL DATA
means data which relate to a living individual who can be
identified –
•
from those data, or
•
from those data and other information which is in the
possession of, or is likely to come into the possession of, the
data controller,
•
and includes any expression of opinion about the individual
and any indication of the intentions of the data controller or
any other person in respect of the individual.
SENSITIVE PERSONAL DATA
means personal data consisting of information as to -
1
•
the racial or ethnic origin of the data subject,
•
his political opinions,
•
his religious beliefs or other beliefs of a similar nature,
•
whether he is a member of a trade union (within the meaning
of the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act
1992),
•
his physical or mental health or condition,
•
his sexual life,
•
the commission or alleged commission by him of any
offence, or
•
any proceedings for any offence committed or alleged
to have been committed by him, the disposal of such
proceedings or the sentence of any court in such
proceedings.
https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/guide-to-data-protection/key-definitions.
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Who knows where you are?
A wide range of companies have access to location data. In some cases,
they can identify the individual at the location, in others they only receive anonymised
or aggregated data on users’ locations.
Analytics
Ad network
App
developer
Location
provider
APP
GPS
Platform
provider
OS
Mobile network
operator
Users
Handset
vendor
Wi-Fi
hotspot
Location:
Lat. 46.204088
Lon. 6.146628
Direction of information flow
98
The following types of companies may be involved in providing locationbased services. We note that some companies play multiple roles, such
as providing the platform, handset, location, and apps, so here we present
the various roles that one or more companies can play in providing the
services.
OS
PLATFORM PROVIDER
Provides the operating system and the app store (although there are third
party app stores as well). Depending on the company, and settings, the
location data may be stored on the device only, or available on the cloud.
LOCATION PROVIDER
Determines the location based on information from the GPS, towers,
or Wi-Fi signals, and makes the location available to apps and/or the
platform.
HANDSET VENDOR
May be separate from the platform provider, such as Samsung using
Android, and is able to track the device, at the least in case it is lost or
stolen.
APP
APP DEVELOPER
Provides the location-based app – must receive location in order to
provide the service, such as navigation.
AD NETWORK
May provide location-based ads, within an app – again must receive
location in order to provide the appropriate ad, and may know
characteristics of the user in order to target the ad.
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ANALYTICS
May provide aggregated marketing data to retailers or others based on
subscriber information and the locations visited.
GPS
Provides the satellite signal to locate the subscriber – there is no direct
reverse transmission path to receive any information about users or their
locations.
MOBILE NETWORK OPERATOR
As discussed below, the mobile operator must know the location to
provide voice or data services, but typically operates under strict privacy
restrictions.
Wi-Fi
A number of companies provide Wi-Fi location data, as third parties or the
platform providers themselves. Hotspot operators will receive information
about devices that are in range of their Wi-Fi.
The mobile network operator (MNO) has always had the ability to locate
subscribers, even before the introduction of Internet services, in order to
originate or terminate a call. On the other hand, the MNO is also typically
subject to strict privacy regulations as a historical matter, covering not just
location but also call information, and these regulations extend to mobile
Internet services. Such regulations do not automatically extend to other
companies in the location value chain, however, over whom regulation
is typically lower or non existent, and who may or may not receive only
anonymised data about location.
A recent study showed that under certain conditions, anonymous data on location could be linked back to
individual users. The researchers had 15 months worth of location data from 1.5 million users in a small
European country. Based on this data, they showed that with just four random location points, they could
identify 95% of the users. With 11 location points, they could identify all of the users. This shows that our
location patterns are very unique, and even a small amount of data can reveal a significant amount of
information about the identity, not to mention the habits, of a user.1
1
See http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130325/srep01376/full/srep01376.html#affil-auth for more details.
100
Users are in a difficult position with respect to location-based services. First,
many may not be aware about the collection of data, including on location,
or even if aware, may not know the extent of data or number of companies
collecting such data. The issue is not restricted to location of course, as all the
various sensors in phones may be on, and not just collecting information, but
also combining it to learn more about us.
Users who are aware and concerned may limit what data is collected, and by
whom, but this is not necessarily straightforward either. Each app has its own
privacy policy discussing how it uses data, and access to location data must
be controlled separately for each app, unless the use of location data is turned
off globally, which limits the benefits of the mobile Internet. Further, across
platforms the granularity of privacy settings varies, in terms of what the user
can control.
Finally, the parameters may change with new versions of the operating
system, surprising users who are not fully vigilant with their privacy settings.
Some phones track and compile frequent locations – a feature
which is relatively new and has been called ‘a divorce lawyer’s
dream’.2 The snapshot at left, centered on ISOC’s Geneva offices,
was taken from the surprised author’s phone.3
2
Security
Mobile Internet devices and usage patterns may introduce new security
issues. These issues relate both to reading of personal and sensitive data
off of the devices as well as placing unwanted data or programs on the
devices. The threat of these security issues is heightened by the increased
amount of private information available to smart devices.
First, there are a number of communication channels – mobile, Wi-Fi,
Bluetooth, and NFC – that can be intercepted or monitored. Furthermore,
mobility brings victims in proximity with hackers, instead of the hackers
having to seek out victims. For instance, Wi-Fi does not just relate to mobile
devices, but it is easier to get access to Wi-Fi traffic near a public hotspot
than it is to get access to the traffic near a private hotspot in a home or
business.
Likewise, Bluetooth was vulnerable in the early days to ‘bluesnarfing’, in
which information could be downloaded from a user’s phone over Bluetooth
without their knowledge within the 10 meter range of Bluetooth, a flaw that
has been corrected, while ‘bluejacking’, the ability to send contact information
to another phone without consent, may still be possible on some phones.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/09/28/how-your-iphone-has-been-tracking-your-every-move-in-secret-4884687.
On an iPhone this feature can be found at Settings -> Privacy -> Location Services -> System Services
-> Frequent Locations, where the history can be seen and a map is generated when any of the entries are
pressed, the feature can be turned off, and the history can be cleared.
On an Android device, the feature can be turned off at Settings -> Location -> Google Location Reporting.
The maps can be viewed on Google Maps from any browser when logged into Google, at https://maps.
google.com/locationhistory/.
2
3
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Many of us store personal and valuable data including contacts and photos on
our smart devices, associated storage (such as SIM cards or SD cards) or in
the cloud, namely using apps that sync to a cloud service. As small portable
devices they are particularly vulnerable to loss or theft, and users may have
weak or no password protection allowing for easy access to the data.
The screen size also introduces its own challenges, as apps or the browser
typically do not indicate whether data is stored or transmitted, what level of
security is offered or what security measures are used. For instance, the
secure sockets layer (SSL) padlock indicator common in PC browsers is not
usually displayed in apps.
Finally, installing apps allows for introducing malware to the device, which has
always been a risk when installing software on a computing device. App stores
may provide varying levels of protection, either screening apps before making
them available, or disabling apps after any problems have been found.4 Users
may be able to install apps outside of the default app store – either by design
or by removing built-in restrictions (also known as jailbreaking) – either way,
the user then loses any protection otherwise afforded by the store.
3
App challenges
We have seen that there is now an availability of over one million apps, and
app usage accounts for significant online usage, creating an app economy
providing opportunities for entrepreneurs worldwide. The emergence of this new
app economy is based on the ease of use of apps and the ability of the apps to
access the advanced features of smart devices. We also noted in the previous
challenge that app stores can increase security by screening apps for malware.
However, there is a downside to this ease of use and convenience. Currently,
the vast majority of apps are native to a particular proprietary mobile platform,
such as Android or Apple, and thus subject to access afforded by the underlying
mobile OS and the corresponding app store. The impact of this on the user
experience can best be explained by comparing online activities using a web
browser on a personal computer with using native apps on a smart device.
On a PC, broadly speaking one can download any browser, and using that
browser search for, and access any available websites. From a website one
can then follow links to other websites.5 Finally, if a user switched operating
systems, all websites will still be available through a browser running under that
new operating system.
On a smart device using native apps, however, the experience is completely
different. First, users cannot easily search between apps, or easily move
between them as with websites. Further, typically the user can only download
what is available in an app store, and it may not be possible to switch app
stores. Finally, if a user switches operating systems, he or she will have to reaccess all of their apps, if they are all even available on the new platform.
We now go through these points in greater detail.
http://googlemobile.blogspot.com/2012/02/android-and-security.html.
Of course, there may be government or commercial limits to what is available in a particular country, as
discussed in detail in the Global Internet Report 2014, Section 4. See http://www.internetsociety.org/doc/
global-internet-report. Nonetheless, for these purposes, any content that is available in a country can be
accessed through any browser.
4
5
102
App challenges
a. App search and linking
Users cannot easily search or link across apps
b. Openness
App stores control the openness of their platform
to developers
c. Development costs
Developers face costs in making their apps
available on each platform
d. Switching costs
Users face costs in switching between platforms
USERS
PLATFORM
1
PLATFORM
2
PLATFORM
3
App search
and linking
App search
and linking
App search
and linking
APP
APP
APP
APP
Time
Switching Costs
APP
Openness
APP
Development Costs
$
Money
APP
APP
APP
DEVELOPERS
Global Internet Report 2015
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a
App Search and Linking
While the number of websites available to users continues to grow,
searching and linking across websites has become increasingly
straightforward, thanks to tools such as the web browser and search
engines. While these tools are available on mobile browsers, the majority
of mobile data is viewed via apps. However, such apps are standalone
tools, with no web addresses and, apart from a few recent innovations, no
deep links. This means that information found via an app, be that discount
hotel offers or train times, cannot always be easily shared and that users
cannot move directly between apps.
A number of developers have begun to search for methods to enable
deep linking between apps, for example by assigning each app a uniform
resource identifier (URI) that will allow it to be opened directly in place of
the standard web interface. Such linking has first been adopted across
individual developers’ apps, for example the Facebook app linking easily
to Facebook messenger. The greatest benefit of such mobile deep linking
will be the ability for users to be brought directly to a specific location
within an app with a dedicated link. Just as deep links made the web more
user friendly and navigable, mobile deep links are likely to do the same for
mobile apps.
Illustration of how linking between apps
can streamline user experience
Process
with no
links
Process
with links
104
Use search
engine app
Select
result and
choose to
view in app
Use search engine app
App opens
to its
homepage
Re-enter
original
search
within app
Arrive
at correct
page
Arrive at correct page
However, while much progress has been made there are still stumbling blocks
in the full adoption of deep linking, with such connections often negotiated
one-to-one between apps or through a company’s individual approach.
In particular, issues arise due to a lack of interoperability, with different mobile
platforms often adopting different formats. This causes a confusing user
experience because different sets of links are required to access the same
app on a different mobile operating system.
An open access, cross-platform approach to deep linking will increase the
benefits of the app environment for all users.
b
Openness
The owners of App stores exert control over what is available to varying
degrees. While this may help prevent downloading or use of apps with
malware, improving security along with helping maintain the privacy of
customers (see the first two challenges in this section), this can also limit
expression and consumer choice.
A number of app stores, including those of the Apple and Windows
platforms, require developers to submit their apps for review and approval
before the platform operator will publish them. The guidelines for which
apps will be accepted and which will be rejected can be imprecise, and can
add uncertainty to app investments.
Such generalisations in guidelines for approval allow app stores to act as a
gatekeeper, having complete control over the content published, potentially
restricting permissionless innovation and freedom of expression.
For example, Apple guidelines include requirements for apps to be “useful, unique or provide
some form of lasting entertainment” as well as not including “any content or behavior that we
believe is over the line”, with no details given of either what constitutes useful or where this
hypothetical line is drawn. Similarly Windows requires apps to “offer customers unique, creative
value or utility” with no further details of what this would entail provided.
This gatekeeper function has resulted in magazines self-censoring in order to be available on
the Apple Newsstand, with content ultimately being omitted in order to ensure that the publication
meets the standards of the App store, which may differ from those held by the original publication.
In December 2009, Apple withheld approval of NewsToons, a cartoon app by Mark Fiore, on the
grounds it “ridiculed public figures”. However following Fiore’s 2010 award of the Pulitzer prize for
these same cartoons, Apple asked Fiore to resubmit the app, and it was subsequently accepted
despite no change in content.
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105
Once accepted, apps are still subject to decisions made by app
stores. There are currently upwards of 1.3 million apps available to
download, leading potential customers to often rely on app rankings and
content promoted by the store via “featured lists” to decide on which
to download. This can mean that unless an app already has a large
audience or is selected for endorsement it is unlikely to be discovered,
making it hard for developers of new apps to get noticed.
The result is that the vast majority of traffic is on apps owned by large
developers, for example 71% of unique visitors to the top 25 US mobile
apps in June 2014 were to apps owned by just four developers. This
differs from the desktop browser situation, where the dominance of the
top four digital media properties is roughly half of that on apps, making
up just 36% of aggregate unique visitors in August 2014.6
App stores are attempting to offer developers methods through which
to generate app discovery, for example the use of sponsored search
results on Google Play, thereby driving awareness.7 However, there are
issues with this solution in that it may be the wealthier, more established
developers that are able to afford this service and the divide may
increase, with truly innovative new apps never achieving visibility.
Aggregate unique visitors to US top 25 apps
by ownership (June 2014)
Aggregate unique visitors (millions)
400
35%
300
19%
200
9%
100
8%
0
Google
Facebook
Yahoo
Apple
Source: ComScore, 20148
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Market-Rankings/comScore-Ranks-the-Top-50-US-Digital-MediaProperties-for-August-2014.
7
http://android-developers.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/a-new-way-to-promote-your-app-on-google.html.
8
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press-Releases/2014/8/comScore-s-US-Mobile-App-ReportAvailable-for-Download?_ga=1.47283424.613095484.1407802489.
6
106
c
Development costs
Mobile platforms exist as stand-alone closed ecosystems, with apps
needing to be developed specifically for each platform in order to be used
on non-standardised devices. This requires developers to create multiple
variations of their apps in order to reach the maximum audience in terms
of device owners. For most small to mid-sized businesses, the budget for
app development is a serious consideration, with the median cost for app
development between USD37 913 and USD171 450.9
As a result, the development of mobile apps ‘personalised’ for multiple
operating systems can be expensive and resource-intensive. These costs
increase with the need to update the apps as the underlying mobile OS is
updated. Furthermore, as more and more of our devices become ‘smart’,
including our TVs, our e-book readers, and even our watches, this can
require further development to adapt apps to these new platforms.
One can see the results in the numbers of apps available on each
platform, where after Apple and Android there is a steep decline in the
number available for the other platforms. We note that even governments
may not develop official apps for all platforms, adding to the challenge of
new platforms and restricting the options for users of those platforms.
The US government provides an example of
selective app development, for example apps
related to America’s Bureau and Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid Services are only
available on Android and iOS. Overall, many apps
are available on iOS only, many of the rest are
only available on Apple and Android, and only a
handful are available for BlackBerry or Windows.10
This availability does not reflect the platform
market share in the US, where Android has a
market share of 58%.
The European Union is also quite selective
in which platforms it supports.11 Of the 27 EU
apps, all are available on Apple, just over half
are available on Android, three are available for
Windows, and only one, regarding the Galileo and
EGNOS Satellites, is available for BlackBerry. The
predominance of Apple availability is at odds with
the market share of Apple – in the five largest EU
countries it ranges from 7 to 38%, while Android is
not below 50% in any.
Availability of EU apps
for each platform
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apple
Android
Windows BlackBerry
Source for costs: https://clutch.co/app-development/cost-build-mobile-app-survey.
See the US Federal Government Apps Directory for the choices of app stores that are supported http://
www.usa.gov/mobileapps.shtml.
11
See the list of 27 EU Mobile Applications here http://ec.europa.eu/ipg/plan/mobile/list/index_
en.htm#section_2.
9
10
Global Internet Report 2015
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d
Switching costs
The lack of standardisation between apps and app stores also acts as a
barrier for consumers wanting to move between platforms as there are
significant costs associated with switching. In particular these costs are
associated with the loss of non-transferable apps which will likely need
to be re-purchased for the new handset, increasing the relative cost of
switching to a new platform. Even for free apps, there is a time cost to
switching. Such costs can ultimately impact the decision of whether to
switch, and if so, on which platform to switch.
Summary
The introduction of app stores, typically tied to the platform consisting of
the smart device and operating system, has proven popular with users,
by making the advanced features of a smart device available through a
convenient icon. At the same time, it has created a first-mover advantage
that limits platform competition. Users will only invest the cost to switch
to a new platform if there are enough apps available, but app developers
will only spend the money to adapt their apps to a new platform if there
are enough users. The result is less dynamic than the easier switching
between PCs accessing the Internet via browsers.
The outcome can be seen in the operating system market shares across
countries. While the global market share for Android is 84%, in the
graph one can see a wide range across the countries shown. In no case,
however, does Android have less than 50% market share and in several it
approaches 90%, while Apple never exceeds 38%, Windows has no more
than 14%, BlackBerry no more than 3%, and Other platforms only exceed
1% in one country.
108
Market Share Q1 2015
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Android
iOS
BlackBerry
Windows
Australia
Japan
China
France
Italy
Spain
Germany
Great Britain
Brazil
Argentina
Mexico
United States
0%
Other
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 2015
Global Internet Report 2015
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110
DEVELOPMENT
Global Internet Report 2015
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4
Spectrum issues
Recent years have seen a surge in mobile data traffic, based on the
increase in the number of users, and the increase in the amount of
traffic generated by users taking advantage of all the possibilities of
the mobile Internet. Traffic will continue to grow at a fast pace as mobile
network deployments expand to cover entire countries, and as networks
upgrade to 3G and 4G technologies and beyond.
The availability and growth of mobile Internet services is critically
dependent on access to a finite resource – radio frequencies, or
spectrum12. All devices offering mobile Internet operate in a similar way,
generating and transmitting a signal at a specific radio frequency. Once
transmitted from a device, it is captured by the nearest base station and
then transferred to the Internet. Return traffic is transmitted from the base
station to the receiving device, which then decodes the signal into the
required data.
Spectrum is at the heart of many commercial services, including radio and
television, government services including safety networks and military
communications, and personal services such as ham radio. In many,
but not all, cases a band of frequency must be made available on an
exclusive basis for one particular service, and often to individual providers
of the service, in order to prevent interference and provide an incentive to
invest in the service.
As spectrum is a scarce resource, and given that the spectrum most
attractive for mobile cellular and Internet services has often been
assigned for other existing services, spectrum management is a critical
policy and regulatory issue. The needs for mobile services must be
balanced against the needs of other services within a country, and against
the international need to coordinate spectrum use and create standards
for equipment.
3G
USERS
USAGE
12
112
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_spectrum.
4G
NETWORK
UPGRADES
Characteristics of spectrum frequencies
Penetration
High
frequency
Capacity
Coverage
At lower frequencies
the radio signals can
more easily pass
through buildings and
other obstructions.
Low
frequency
Global Internet Report 2015
113
Only a relatively small subset of radio frequency spectrum, between
450MHz and 5GHz, is currently in use for the provision of mobile services,
while further spectrum including that upward of 6GHz is being researched
for mobile feasibility.
Spectrum is selected for different services according to the
characteristics associated with each frequency. Lower frequency
spectrum is ideal in many circumstances, as it can penetrate buildings in
cities, and propagate far in suburban and urban areas. For this reason,
however, it is already heavily used, notably for broadcast television.
Attempts are being made to make this popular spectrum more accessible
to mobile, notably the digital switchover13 to free up spectrum, and
white space usage to make existing use more efficient. Given the
existing popularity of these bands, lower frequencies are not likely to be
able to keep pace with increasing demands, and thus higher frequencies,
where more spectrum tends to be available, are typically used to provide
more capacity.
Access to radio frequencies is regulated via detailed spectrum
management processes, to promote efficient use. Typically day-to-day
spectrum management is undertaken by national regulators, however the
International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is responsible for identifying
harmonised spectrum bands to be released to different services at a
regional or global level where possible. This allows for economies of
scale in creating equipment and services that can be used widely across
regions or globally, and helps to avoid potential interference issues, both
between neighbouring countries and neighbouring frequency bands. The
ITU coordinates spectrum across three regions:
Region
Region
Region
Europe, Africa and
the Middle East
The Americas
Asia Pacific
1
2
3
The ITU hosts a World Radiocommunication Conferences every 3 to 4
years, at which it reviews frequency allocation. The next conference,
WRC-15,14 is to be held in November 2015. In the conference preparatory
meeting a number of spectrum bands were highlighted as candidate
bands for use by mobile services in order to meet future mobile data
demands.
13
14
114
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television_transition.
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/conferences/wrc/2015/Pages/default.aspx.
Candidate bands (shown in blue) for mobile services
to be discussed at WRC-15
0MHz
6.5GHz
At the national level, there are three tools commonly used for managing
spectrum access, with spectrum able to be authorised as:
1
1
Dedicated, licensed spectrum
2
License-exempt spectrum
3
License-shared access spectrum
Dedicated, licensed spectrum
Dedicated, licensed spectrum is used for the provision of mobile cellular
services around the world and, while the bands are co-ordinated
by the ITU, national regulators assign this spectrum to individual
operators through processes such as competitive auctions and beauty
contests. Mobile operators must make significant investment in network
infrastructure in order to provide services, and in order to make this
investment worthwhile require dedicated spectrum assignments, allowing
for no interference from other uses, and licensed for a sufficient period to
recoup the investment.
Spectrum bands are allocated to mobile operators in different ways
across the three ITU regions, however some of the more recently
released bands, such as the 2.6GHz band are assigned more uniformly.
Additionally within these regions there is significant variation in the
amount of spectrum assigned by regulators for mobile use.
Global Internet Report 2015
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SPECTRUM ASSIGNED FOR MOBILE
The amount of spectrum assigned for mobile can vary
significantly by country. For example, in Europe, Albania has
assigned a total of 360MHz of spectrum to mobile while Austria
has assigned 805MHz. Similar phenomena can be seen in
the Asia Pacific, where Australia has assigned 658MHz and
Vietnam only 340MHz.
By contrast, the ITU has predicted that by 2020 average
spectrum requirements for the provision of mobile services will
be between 1340-1960MHz, while GSMA has predicted that
between 1600-1800MHz will be needed. This highlights the
spectrum challenges facing the international community at the
upcoming WRC and the challenges facing policymakers at the
national level.
Summary of spectrum band allocation to mobile
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Spectrum
band
Allocation
Typical
usage
Allocation
Typical
usage
Allocation
Typical
usage
700MHz
2×30MHz*
LTE
2×35MHz
LTE
2×45MHz
LTE
800MHz
2×30MHz
LTE
850MHz
900MHz
N/A
2×35MHz
N/A
AWS
(1.7/2.1GHz)
N/A
2×75MHz
1.9GHz
2×25MHz
GSM/UMTS
1.5GHz**
1.8GHz
N/A
GSM
2×25MHz
GSM
N/A
2×35MHz
GSM/UMTS
N/A
2×35MHz**
LTE
2×70MHz
GSM/LTE
N/A
N/A
UMTS
N/A
2×60MHz
2.1GHz
2×60MHz
UMTS
2.3 TDD
100MHz
TD-LTE
100MHz
2.6 TDD
50MHz
TD-LTE
2.6GHz
2×70MHz
3.5GHz***
200MHz
N/A
2×75MHz
GSM
N/A
GSM/LTE
N/A
2×60MHz
UMTS
TD-LTE
100MHz
TD-LTE
50MHz
TD-LTE
50MHz
TD-LTE
LTE
2×70MHz
LTE
2×70MHz
LTE
TD-LTE
200MHz
TD-LTE
200MHz
TD-LTE
Note that not every country within each region will have assigned all of the allocated spectrum to the mobile operators in that country.
Source: ECO; ITU; Regulator websites
* Likely allocation and band plan, to be confirmed following WRC-15
** So far this band is only used in an FDD configuration in Japan, but may soon be used for LTE (SDL and TDD) in multiple regions
*** Band plan not yet finalised so this could also end up being used for LTE with an FDD band plan.
116
2
License-exempt spectrum
Certain bands of spectrum allow wireless services to operate without
requiring individual licenses, based on certain technical conditions
being met, for example keeping transmission power low and avoiding
interference. Services that make use of such spectrum include Bluetooth
and a number of Near Field Communication (NFC) technologies, however
Wi-Fi is the single largest category of license-exempt spectrum use.
Mobile data on network-connected devices can be offloaded onto these
services at the discretion of the operator, to preserve spectrum use
where possible, or the consumer who can link their devices to their Wi-Fi
hotspot, often to save on data charges. However mobile data traffic from
devices without mobile subscriptions, such as some tablets, can also use
this spectrum and add to the amount of traffic.
Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi, the name given to wireless local area network (WLAN)
services using the IEEE 802.11 open standard, uses spectrum
in the 2.4GHz (2400-2500MHz) and 5GHz (5100-5800MHz)
bands within a limited range or “hotspot”. The Wi-Fi access
point is able to transmit encoded data in the same way as
cellular network base stations.
Wi-Fi is supported by devices beyond handsets and midscreen devices including video game consoles, connected TV
sets and is widely used in businesses, schools, and homes
as an alternative to a fixed wired local network. In particular,
businesses such as airports, hotels, and restaurants offer public
access to Wi-Fi networks, either for free or requiring a payment
to access via password
3
License-shared spectrum
Spectrum sharing predominantly takes two forms, spectrum competitively
assigned for shared use and spectrum where the sharing is actively
managed by national regulators. Its purpose is to allow spectrum to be
used by another party when not in use or needed by the primary user,
thereby making spectrum use more efficient.
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Given the nature of spectrum as a finite resource, such innovative
regulatory strategies, allowing different types of technology to operate in
the same frequency band, are particularly important in meeting demand.
This is notably true in the case of white spaces, which allow valuable
broadcast spectrum to be shared by mobile Internet services.
White spaces
White spaces are the name given to parts of the spectrum
that are unused in a particular geographic location and at a
particular time, for example unused channels in bands for which
the primary use is broadcast television. Such open TV channels
are particularly common in rural areas and regulators, including
the FCC in the USA and Ofcom in the UK, are providing a path
to allow Wi-Fi like services using White Space Devices (WSD)
to broadcast over unused TV channels. These services would
either use dedicated devices, or the functionality would have to
be incorporated into mobile devices in the future.
The prevalence of white space spectrum in rural areas makes
it potentially particularly important in helping bridge the digital
divide by providing wireless Internet in rural areas and enabling
technology innovation.
Mobile Internet use will continue to grow as both subscriber numbers
and average data consumptions per subscriber grow, increasing global
mobile traffic.
There are four realistic means to address increasing demand, each with
its own potential issues.
1. Build more mobile cell sites in order to increase overall capacity and
hence reduce the demand on each site. However, this is expensive,
and interference between sites limits the density of the sites as they
get closer together.
2. Offload mobile traffic to platforms such as Wi-Fi and potentially white
spaces. However, as shown on the right this would mean a significant
increase in Wi-Fi traffic, which may lead to congestion over time.
3. Limit demand using data pricing and/or throttle demand for heavy
users. This would have the counterproductive result of limiting the
benefits of the mobile Internet that we have explored in Section 3.
4. Make additional spectrum available for the mobile Internet, including
all types of spectrum – licensed for mobile operators, unlicensed for
Wi-Fi, and shared for white spaces.
118
While country by country needs are likely to vary, particularly between
developing and developed countries, the ITU and GSMA predict that on
average spectrum requirement for the provision of mobile services in
2020 will be significantly more than what is assigned today. This will be
a significant challenge at the country level, as the needs of other private
and public radio services must be balanced against mobile Internet
needs, and at the WRC15 as allocations are made that will impact the
future availability across all regions.
Forecast mobile Internet traffic on both cellular
and Wi-Fi offload networks
Mobile data traffic (PB thousand)
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Additional Wi-Fi data traffic
Wi-Fi data traffic from 3G and 4G devices
Cellular data traffic
Source: Analysys Mason Research, 2015
5
The Digital Divide
The optimistic view of Internet development focuses on the speed at
which we have now surpassed 3 billion users, with the mobile Internet
playing a significant role in that achievement. However, that still leaves
more than half the world’s population offline. Given the role that the
mobile Internet will play in bringing the next billions online, we focus here
on the challenges faced in bringing those users online and allowing them
the same opportunity for social and economic inclusion.
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119
As shown on the next chart, there are three challenges to the mobile
Internet closing the digital divide.
1
1
Availability
Users can only access the Internet if it is available to them;
building on existing cellular network availability, availability of
mobile Internet services outpaces adoption today.
2
Affordability
One reason that availability outpaces adoption today is
clearly the cost of service, which for too many is too large an
expense.
3
Relevance
Finally, even for those who can afford the Internet, they must
have a compelling reason to go online, based on content that
is in their language and locally relevant.
Availability
The first challenge is availability. The basis for mobile Internet availability
is cellular network coverage, and many countries have at or close to
100% of their population covered by cellular networks, the global
average is 94%, and no region has less than 80% coverage. While the
data does not exist that indicate whether these networks are at least
2.5G, and thus able to offer mobile Internet services, the cost to upgrade
from 2G is relatively low, and thus could relatively easily be upgraded in
the face of increased demand.
While the good news is that almost every country tracked has at least a
3G network deployed, offering fast Internet connections, the coverage
is not yet universal, with some regions having just over 10% coverage,
and the worldwide average at 48% of population covered. This restricts
much of the population to older mobile technology, if any, and restricts
the mobility of those with 3G service to those parts of the country with
coverage.
120
The Digital Divide
This chart shows that while 94% of global population is covered by a cellular network, only
48% have 3G coverage, leaving room to increase availability. Further, only 28% have
subscribed to a mobile Internet service, leaving room to increase adoption by focusing on
affordability and relevance.
100%
Population
94%
Cellular Coverage
1
Availability
48%
3G Coverage
Relevance
3
Affordability
2
28%
Subscribers
Source: ITU, Analysys Mason Research
Global Internet Report 2015
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2
Affordability
The second challenge is affordability. In most, if not all, countries,
the availability of mobile Internet service far outpaces adoption rates,
meaning that a significant number of people have access to service, but
do not subscribe. One reason for this is affordability, as the cost clearly
puts a ceiling on the number who can adopt service, and there is still a
large number of countries where the cost is more than 5, or even 10% of
average per capita income.
On the other hand, according to a recent study by internet.org,15 a data
package of 250MB would be affordable to 55% of the world’s population,
for whom this would represent 5% or less of average per capita income.
At an entry level, this would allow approximately 12,500 text-based
emails, or 1,250 text-based web pages to be browsed. Including
multimedia would decrease the amount of usage significantly of course,
and thus work still needs to be done to lower the costs to make all
services available to everyone.
Nonetheless, these numbers suggest that more people could afford
mobile Internet services than the 28% of the population who are currently
taking them, suggesting a segment of the population for whom the
Internet is available and affordable, but not yet of perceived interest to
adopt, based on a variety of factors we consider next.
3
Relevance
This suggests that the final challenge is relevance. As described in last
year’s Global Internet Report 2014, a far greater percentage of online
content is in English compared with the proportion of the global population
who can speak English.16 More specific to the mobile Internet, we have
noted that not every country has access to the major App stores, which
limits the usefulness of a smart device and corresponding mobile Internet
subscription.
Access to an App store can provide a market for entrepreneurs, many
of whom are likely to address gaps in their own market. However, even
for those who do have smart devices, there may be limits on productivity.
While there are few surveys, one showed that in India, 34% of Internet
users only access the Internet via their mobile.17 In this case, are they
limited to mainly consuming content and communicating? Is it possible
to produce, create, innovate? Or will such users still face some
exclusion from fully joining the Internet economy?
“State of Connectivity: 2014, A Report on Global Internet Access”, internet.org, February 2015, http://
newsroom.fb.com/news/2015/02/the-state-of-global-connectivity/.
16
See the Internet Society Global Internet Report 2014, Section 4, at http://www.internetsociety.org/doc/
global-internet-report
17
See Unitus Seed Fund Report at page 45, http://usf.vc/updates/unitus-seed-fund-releases-new-indialivelihoods-report/
15
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Conclusion
In conclusion, many of the benefits of the mobile Internet bring with them
their own sets of challenges that need to be addressed to ensure that all
users – existing and future– enjoy the full benefits of access to the open
Internet.
The introduction of smart devices using apps has increased the amount
of personal and sensitive data available to a wide range of companies,
while mobility has potentially introduced new security concerns based on
the ability to intercept transmissions and expose this data to unwanted
parties. At the same time, the apps used overwhelmingly to access the
Internet via smart devices have created costs that may limit competition.
Nonetheless, the overwhelming benefits of the mobile Internet, and
the new services available, have created new demands for spectrum
that must be met to continue the fast pace of growth. This growth is
particularly significant in developing countries, where the mobile Internet
has leap-frogged traditional access, and a number of challenges must be
met for the mobile Internet to continue to close the digital divide.
In the final section, we provide recommendations to address these
challenges.
Global Internet Report 2015
123
Section 5
Recommendations
EVOLUTION
DEVELOPMENT
124
In Section 4 we examined five challenges presented by the introduction
of mobility and the advanced features of the smart device, in terms of
the resulting evolution of the Internet and the impact on development.
These challenges are summarized below. Here we provide
recommendations to overcome these challenges in order to protect and
promote the benefits of the mobile Internet for current and future users.
EVOLUTION
1
2
3
Smart devices enable services such as location
awareness and include features such as
cameras; the flip side of the coin is increased
privacy issues
Usage of the mobile Internet depends on a
number of wireless interfaces and access to
apps; these lead to heightened security issues
Apps provide convenient access to the
advanced features of the phone such as the
GPS or camera; but app stores create costs
for developers and customers and may limit
competition
DEVELOPMENT
4
More users are doing more with the mobile
Internet; is there enough spectrum available?
5
Mobile Internet is the way the next billion are
going to get online; will this close the digital
divide?
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126
EVOLUTION
Global Internet Report 2015
127
1
Privacy
LOCATION
As we put our smart devices to more uses, in the house, on the move, and at
work, the amount of information about us, and the number of companies that
have access to at least some of that information, is multiplying. Many, if not
most of us, are not fully aware of what is collected, unless confronted directly
with the results. For example, many are unaware, and thus surprised, at
seeing their own activity mapped in detail with the frequent location features
of at least the Apple and Android platforms, as discussed in Section 4.
In order to address these issues, it is important that users are given the
option to provide consent to access features of smart devices in a fashion
that is simple and granular, enabling control over relevant permissions given
to each app. At the same time, app developers should provide sufficient
privacy choices and refrain from attempting to access information not directly
needed by their app. Regulatory intervention is a possibility, to impose
guidelines if needed and enforce compliance.
One way to address the complexity of managing many apps and their
frequent updates is an agency model. In this model, an intermediary or
trusted agent would be given the users’ overriding preferences on access
to each feature – such as location or contacts – and then implement those
permissions for each individual app. According to one prominent academic,
after individuals answer a few privacy-related questions it is possible to
predict their app privacy preferences with over 90 percent accuracy, showing
how such an agent could provide simple and effective guidance.1
Carnegie Mellon Study
In relation to the location-based example we used to highlight privacy
concerns, researchers at Carnegie-Mellon recently released an interesting
study2. During this study, they chose 23 subjects and tracked which apps
had access to their location and how often the apps accessed their location.
They then provided a privacy agent enabling the subjects to control access
to location data, and provided the subjects with a ‘privacy nudge’ alerting
them each time an app asked for location.
The results were startling. One user learned that his or her location had
been shared with apps 5,398 times over two weeks. When presented
with data about the frequency of sharing of their location, many of the
study’s subjects expressed shock, and having access to a privacy agent,
most quickly reset their permissions to limit the use of location. As other
research shows, not all apps even have an obvious direct need for location
This is according to Professor Norman Sadeh, from the Carnegie Mellon School of Computer Science’s
Institute for Software Research. See “Carnegie Mellon Study Shows People Act to Protect Privacy When
Told How Often Phone Apps Share Personal Information” by Byron Spice, 23 March 2015, Carnegie
Mellon School of Computer Science announcement, at http://www.cs.cmu.edu/news/carnegie-mellonstudy-shows-people-act-protect-privacy-when-told-how-often-phone-apps-share-personal-information.
2
See http://www.cs.cmu.edu/news/carnegie-mellon-study-shows-people-act-protect-privacy-whentold-how-often-phone-apps-share-personal-information. See also Tim Moynihan, “Apps Snoop on your
Location Way More than You Think,” March 25, 2015, Wired at http://www.wired.com/2015/03/appssnoop-location-way-think/.
1
128
data, which can further compound users’ surprise. For instance, one free
app that enables a smartphone to be used as a flashlight, appears to also
use location data to deliver targeted advertising.3
This highlights two aspects of addressing privacy concerns – first, having
a simple agent or manager for controlling privacy with sufficient choices
offered, and second, having information on which apps access which
information, and how often. Together, this enables consumers to realise the
benefit of the mobile Internet while providing informed consent about how
their private and sensitive data, such as their location, is used.
2
Security
The Internet Society promotes a Collaborative Security4 approach, which
includes the principle that security solutions should be fully integrated
with the important objectives of preserving the fundamental properties of
the Internet, or the Internet invariants as we call them, and fundamental
human rights, values and expectations. Our approach stresses that
everyone has a collective responsibility for the security of the Internet:
People are what ultimately hold the Internet together. The Internet’s
development has been based on voluntary cooperation and collaboration.
Cooperation and collaboration remain the essential factors for its prosperity
and potential.
In the case of the mobile Internet in particular, no one actor can solve
security for the mobile Internet – all have a role to play.5 Among the key
players, operators and vendors can act to secure mobile transmissions;
mobile platforms and app stores can continue to control apps for malware
and provide privacy tools for users; and Wi-Fi hotspot operators can use
WPA2 security to protect users. Everyone can work together to implement
usable encryption tools on mobile devices, and to develop uniform easy to
understand security indicators designed for the small screen environment.
While providers and developers have an important role to play, users also
play a key role in safeguarding their private data and interactions with the
mobile Internet. This starts with the recognition that their smart devices
are powerful computers, and like traditional computers connected to the
Internet, subject to a variety of attacks, many of which can spread from
their smart device to others indirectly through Wi-Fi or directly by accessing
contact data. As a result, users should apply appropriate security tools and
caution regarding access to their devices, downloading unfamiliar apps,
and in using unknown Wi-Fi hotspots and providing Bluetooth permissions.
Carnegie Mellon’s Computer Human Interaction: Mobility Privacy Security (CHIMPS) Lab runs a website
that grades free Android Apps on their privacy policies. See http://www.privacygrade.org.
4
http://www.internetsociety.org/collaborativesecurity.
5
For a discussion applicable to the Internet in general, see “Understanding Security and Resilience of the
Internet”, http://www.internetsociety.org/sites/default/files/bp-securityandresilience-20130711.pdf.
3
Global Internet Report 2015
129
3
App challenges
As described in Section 4, each mobile platform can act as a gatekeeper,
resulting in a native app environment that raises the cost of creating
apps for each platform, the cost for users switching between platforms,
and thereby limits platform competition. The Internet Society notes the
remarkable benefits for users and opportunities of the app economy,
resulting from existing mobile platforms. However, we also wish to
highlight an alternative platform that is emerging, one based on the
OpenStand principles6 that we endorse.
October
2014
The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), which develops open
standards for the Web, has defined an Open Web Platform in order to
“enable developers to build rich interactive experiences, powered by
vast data stores, that are available on any device.”7 The cornerstone of
the Open Web Platform is HTML5, the latest version of the HyperText
Markup Language (HTML) that is used to write web pages, which was
recommended as a standard in October 2014.8 Part of the W3C work in
this space is funded by the European Union project HTML5Apps.9
The vision for this work is to enable developers to create websites with
advanced features that can be installed on a mobile device with an icon,
similar to the way that a native app is installed today. The result brings the
advantages of the Web to the app environment, based on non-proprietary
open standards.
In particular, as web apps in the Open Web Platform are websites with
advanced features, deep linking is possible as it is on the Web today,
the apps update automatically when the website updates, rather than
requiring an update to be downloaded, and the web app can automatically
resize for any screen size, unlike native apps that may need to be
modified.
Furthermore, as with the Web, the web app environment is intrinsically
open to any developer, with lower overall costs as the app does not need
to be customized for different platforms. Consumers also benefit, as it is
just as easy to switch platforms as it is today to switch between browsers;
web apps would not need to be re-purchased and re-downloaded. These
advantages, which can increase platform competition, are highlighted in the
diagram below in comparison with the challenges identified in Section 4.
https://open-stand.org/about-us/principles/
https://open-stand.org/about-us/principles/
8
See http://www.w3.org/2014/10/html5-rec.html.en
9
The HTML5Apps project is funded by the European Union through the Seventh Framework Programme
(FP7/2013-2015). For more information see http://html5apps-project.eu/.
6
7
130
Open Web Platform
a. App search and linking
Users can easily search or link across web apps
b. Openness
The web app environment is intrinsically open to
any developer
c. Development costs
Web apps do not need to be customized for each
platform
d. Switching costs
It is easy for users to switch between platforms
USERS
Low switching Costs
PLATFORM
1
PLATFORM
2
PLATFORM
3
Deep linking possible
APP
APP
APP
Open platform
Low development Costs
DEVELOPERS
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Examples of this new platform are already emerging. The Financial Times
has already made available a web app, which can be installed directly
from their website (app.ft.com) on any mobile device, as with the mobile
version of this report. Mozilla has gone further and developed the Firefox
OS platform with a Marketplace based on web apps, which a number of
mobile operators including Telefonica are already supporting.
The aim of the Open Web Platform is to match or surpass the native
app environment in a number of ways, including security and privacy,
the ability for apps to work offline, allow for payments, and offer a full
multimedia experience. However, these capabilities are not yet uniform
across all browsers and platforms, which also limits interoperability for
developers and users wishing to switch browser or platform.10
In recognition of remaining challenges, W3C has initiated a project called
Application Foundations, to build on HTML5 and enable the Open Web
Platform to meet the needs of developers seeking to create web apps that
offer at least as good a user experience as native apps.11 This approach
– while not guaranteed with work still underway – would be consistent
with our OpenStand principles, and provide new choices for users and
developers.
The OpenStand principles encompass the work of the Open Web
Platform and highlight its promise, as described in the statement below.
As with the other standards covered by these principles, development and
adoption is a multi-stakeholder effort, an effort we endorse. In particular,
we encourage content and service providers to input to the Open Web
Platform development to incorporate their needs; mobile OS vendors can
ensure their browsers are able to fully use web apps; entrepreneurs can
leverage the new opportunity, for instance to help users find relevant web
apps, which users can then download and try for themselves.
Over the past several decades, the global economy has realized a huge bounty due to
the Internet and the World Wide Web. These could not have been possible without the
innovations and standardization of many underlying technologies. This standardization
occurred with great speed and effectiveness only because of key characteristics of a
modern global standards paradigm. The affirmation below characterizes the principles
that have led to this success as a means to ensure acceptance of standards activities
that adhere to the principles.
We embrace a modern paradigm for standards where the economics of global
markets, fueled by technological advancements, drive global deployment of standards
regardless of their formal status.
See “Can the mobile Web win back developers from iOS, Android,” Stephen Shankland, CNET, March
15, 2015, at http://www.cnet.com/news/can-the-mobile-web-win-back-developers-from-ios-android/.
11
See “Applications Foundations for the Open Web Platform,” Jeff Jaffe, W3C Blog, October 14,
2014, at http://www.w3.org/blog/2014/10/application-foundations-for-the-open-web-platform/. The 8
specific Application Foundations are Security and Privacy; Core Web Design and Development; Device
Interaction; Application Lifecycle; Media and Real-Time Communications; Performance and Tuning;
Usability and Accessibility; and Services. Id.
10
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In this paradigm, standards support interoperability, foster global competition, are
developed through an open participatory process, and are voluntarily adopted globally.
These voluntary standards serve as building blocks for products and services targeted
at meeting the needs of the market and consumer, thereby driving innovation.
Innovation in turn contributes to the creation of new markets and the growth and
expansion of existing markets.
OpenStand Joint Statement of Affirmation, with Inaugral Signatories Internet Society,
Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), Internet Architecture Board (IAB), W3C, and
the IEEE Standards Association12
In the meantime, websites can be made more accessible, in order to
enable user access on platforms where no app may be available. For
instance, governments should not just support one or two platforms
with native apps, but enable users to access relevant websites from any
platform. For instance, the UK government has developed guidelines for
developing universally accessible services regardless of browser or
device.13 Likewise, private content and service providers can make their
offerings available through web apps as well as native app stores.
In addition, regardless of the platform, in order for people with disability
to gain the most benefit from the mobile Internet, governments and the
private sector should design for inclusion, for instance following the
recommendations of the W3C Web Accessibility Initiative (WAI), which
developed the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) now in
their second version.14 A number of national regulators have introduced
accessibility requirements on service providers, and the UN Convention
on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (with 159 signatory UN Member
States including the European Union) includes obligations to implement
measures to design, develop, produce and distribute accessible ICT.15
See https://open-stand.org/about-us/affirmation/.
https://www.gov.uk/service-manual/user-centred-design/browsers-and-devices.html.
More details on the WAI can be found at http://www.w3.org/WAI/, and the WCAG 2.0 recommendations
at http://www.w3.org/TR/2008/REC-WCAG20-20081211/. The WAI also includes the Authoring Tool
Accessibility Guidelines, aimed at helping people with disabilities create their own web content and
making sure it also complies with the WCAG recommendations.
15
More details on the UN Convention can be found at http://www.un.org/disabilities/default.asp?id=150,
and EU policy at http://ec.europa.eu/ipg/standards/accessibility/eu_policy/index_en.htm. See also the
ETSI accessibility requirements for public procurement of ICT products and services in Europe at http://
www.etsi.org/deliver/etsi_en/301500_301599/301549/01.01.01_60/en_301549v010101p.pdf. For an
example of the differences in the accessibility of smart devices and apps, see the Global Accessibility
Reporting Initiative at https://www.gari.info.
12
13
14
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DEVELOPMENT
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4
Spectrum issues
In order to ensure sufficient bandwidth, and avoid operators having to
raise prices to lower demand and usage, policymakers need to ensure that
adequate spectrum will be available for mobile Internet access, at both the
international and national levels.
International level
The upcoming ITU World Radiocommunication Conference 2015 (WRC15)
is important for identifying the spectrum bands that will help to meet both
capacity and coverage needs for meeting increasing demand for mobile
Internet services. Ensuring that these new bands are harmonized by regions,
if not globally, will help to create the biggest market and hence the greatest
economies of scale for new equipment and services, while also promoting
innovation, creating allocations both for licensed and unlicensed uses.
National level
At the national level, spectrum management is critical to increase availability
and affordability of mobile Internet services. Where capacity is needed,
efforts to re-assign existing bands, such as are already underway with the
digital switchover from broadcasting, along with efforts to rationalize public
usage of spectrum will be important to ensure an adequate allocation of
spectrum for mobile Internet uses. At the same time, regulators should
ensure that assignment of the spectrum does not merely favour incumbent
operators or uses, prevents anti-competitive hoarding of spectrum,
encourages efficient use by existing holders, and enables innovation.
In order to accomplish this, assignments should use a mix of licensed,
unlicensed, and shared access.
5
The Digital Divide
According to the mobile Internet forecasts we have used from Analysys
Mason, another billion mobile Internet subscriptions will be taken by
September 2016. Not all of these new subscriptions will be in the
developing world, and some of them will represent multiple subscriptions
for the same user. However, based on current trends a significant number
of these will not just be new subscriptions, but they will be taken by new
Internet users, helping to close the digital divide.
As discussed above, there are three challenges to the mobile Internet
helping close the digital divide: availability of access, affordability, and
relevance of the Internet to potential users. We address these in turn.
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a
Availability
With cellular coverage reaching 100% of the population soon, the challenge
to increase availability is upgrading the network to offer mobile Internet
access, which increasingly means at least 3G technology, possibly in
conjunction with Wi-Fi to increase capacity and coverage. In addition, the
sufficient national and international capacity will need to be available to be
able to meet the increasing usage of the increasing number of users.
Part of the shortfall in mobile Internet availability is likely demand-driven – the
operators will upgrade when the demand for services is clear, and this will be
addressed by making access more affordable and service more relevant.
In addition, governments can help to lower costs by removing any barriers
to connectivity, such as high costs for deploying infrastructure and
encouraging sharing of infrastructure. In the last mile, management of
spectrum that makes it available when needed, and which allows innovative
uses, particularly in reaching un- or under-served rural areas, will increase
deployment.
b
Affordability
The actions outlined above to increase availability will also act to lower costs,
even where mobile Internet services are already offered. Additional actions can
include removing taxes on equipment, devices, and services that could act to
depress demand. Policies to increase competition at the international gateway,
over domestic connectivity, and in the last mile, will also serve to lower prices.
Finally, as shown below, actions to increase the amount of local hosting of
content will avoid the use of relatively expensive international capacity to
access content, lowering the cost of usage accordingly.
c
Relevance
Enabling an Internet environment where content is free of unreasonable legal
challenges will help to promote the creation of relevant content. Countries
should also create an enabling environment for companies to deploy caches
or servers to hold local or international content when it makes sense – this
will lower the cost and latency of accessing the content, thereby increasing
usage. At the same time, governments can help to promote content creation
and usage by developing their own mobile-accessible websites, hosting them
locally, and promoting the capacity building to support these activities.
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Conclusion
WE ALWAYS OVERESTIMATE THE CHANGE THAT
WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS AND
UNDERESTIMATE THE CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR
IN THE NEXT TEN. DON'T LET YOURSELF BE
LULLED INTO INACTION.
Bill Gates
Nowhere can this quote be more true than with respect to the rise of the
mobile Internet. Ten years ago, fixed broadband had just surpassed dial-up
as the main form of Internet access; one billion users accessed the Internet,
the majority from developed countries; and it would be another two years
before the iPhone was launched and four years before the first 4G network.
Today, mobile broadband has long surpassed fixed as the main form of
Internet access; there are three billion users of whom the majority are in
developing countries; and smartphone sales have surpassed the sale of
feature phones in developed and developing regions. There are millions of
apps available, which have been downloaded billions of times, and apps are
the increasingly main way that mobile users interact with the Internet.
These apps, taking advantage of the advanced features of smart devices
and the full mobility of users, have provided benefits in every part of our lives
– underpinning an app economy creating opportunities for entrepreneurs
everywhere; changing the way we interact with our governments, businesses,
and each other; and helping to provide us with accessibility, personal security,
and entertainment.
Many of us rely on our phones to help us navigate an unfamiliar city, suggest
restaurants in the area, summon a taxi, or find constellations in the night sky.
However, many of us also are surprised when confronted with the resulting
data on our location and movements that is stored and shared among a
variety of companies involved in providing location-based services. The
same is true for other types of personal, and possibly sensitive data available
through our smart devices.
In turn, many of us increasingly rely on apps to access the Internet, and may
not realise how the app economy limits our choices of platforms until we
contemplate switching platforms. At that point, we may realize that today the
leading platform commands a market share of 84% of all smartphones sold,
and new platforms have difficulty building up the base of native apps needed
to make switching attractive.
Nonetheless, there is no question that bringing the next billion Internet users
online will be driven by the mobile Internet, and our collective challenge is
to help bridge the digital divide. As these users come online, and all users
continue to increase their usage, the necessary spectrum must be made
138
available, under policies that encourage efficient spectrum use, competition,
and innovation.
As we look forward on the challenges that must be met to increase the
benefits of the mobile Internet for all, we should be mindful of both parts of
Bill Gates’ quote; not just that we would have underestimated the change that
took place in the past ten years, but that we may overestimate the change
that can take place in the next two.
As a result, as we collectively celebrate the changes that have taken place
over the past ten years, we should also work hard, together, to make sure
that the challenges we have identified are met in order that existing and new
users enjoy a mobile Internet that is private and secure, with easy choice
between platforms new and old, and that it is available, affordable, and
relevant to all users everywhere.
EVOLUTION
1
Privacy: It is important to ensure that users have
the ability to provide privacy permissions in a way
that is simple to understand and implement.
2
Security: We should implement a Collaborative
Security approach to mobile security, with all
players in the ecosystem playing a role in this effort.
3
App challenges: We encourage multi-stakeholder
support for the Open Web Platform, as a way
to increase platform choices for users that is
consistent with our OpenStand principles.
DEVELOPMENT
4
5
Spectrum: Policymakers must ensure that
sufficient spectrum is available to meet new
demand and ensure that congestion does not
throttle demand.
Digital Divide: Policymakers should ensure that
the mobile Internet is available throughout their
countries; affordable without undue costs; and
relevant to users based on language and content.
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Design and layout: blossoming.it