US Economic Indicators:
Railcar Loadings &
Truck Tonnage
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 2, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
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Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
US Railcar Loadings
Shares of Loadings
US Railcar Loadings
Carloads
Coal Loadings
Transportation Indicators & Stocks
Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories
ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories
Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production
Railcar Loadings
March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
1
2
3-5
6-7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 1.
600
600
RAILCAR LOADINGS*
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Total
550
550
2/27
500
500
450
450
400
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2000
2001
400
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Carloads plus intermodal.
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 2.
400
400
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Carloads
350
350
300
300
2/27
250
250
200
150
200
Intermodal
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2000
2001
150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Shares of Loadings
Figure 3.
75
75
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
Carloads
(as a percent of total)
2/27
50
50
Intermodal
(as a percent of total)
45
45
40
40
35
35
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30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
30
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 4.
60
60
RAILCAR LOADINGS*
50
50
40
40
2/27
Coal Carloads
(as a percent of total car loads)
30
30
Grain Carloads
(as a percent of total car loads)
20
20
10
10
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0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
2018
* Based on 26-week moving averages.
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 2 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 5.
500
500
TOTAL RAILCAR LOADINGS EXCLUDING COAL
(thousand units, 26-wa)
450
450
2/27
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
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250
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 6.
32
32
COAL CARLOADINGS
(as a percent of total railcar loadings, based on 26-wa)
30
30
28
28
26
26
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
2/27
16
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16
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 3 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 7.
300
300
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
275
275
250
250
2/27
225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
Intermodal: Total
Intermodal ex Trailers
125
125
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100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
100
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 8.
70
70
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
65
65
Intermodal: Trailers
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
2/27
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
25
2017
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 9.
30
30
RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES
25
25
20
20
2/27
15
15
Motor Vehicles
Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa)
10
10
Sales
(million units, saar)
5
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90
91
92
5
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics.
Figure 10.
7
2600
RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
2300
6
2000
1700
5
1400
4
1100
Lumber & Wood Products
Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)
800
2/27
3
Housing Starts
(thousand units, saar)
2
500
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90
91
92
200
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 5 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Carloads
Figure 9.
160
150
140
12
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
11
10
Coal
Nonmetallic Minerals
9
130
8
120
7
110
6
100
5
90
2/27
2/27
80
3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
48
12
46
44
42
4
11
Chemicals & Petroleum
Products
Pulp & Paper
Products
2/27
10
40
9
38
8
36
7
34
2/27
32
30
6
5
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
18
11
Waste & Scrap
Materials
16
10
Metals & Products
14
9
12
10
8
8
2/27
7
6
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4
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
2/27
6
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
Page 6 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Carloads
Figure 10.
48
48
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
46
46
44
44
2/27
42
42
Chemicals & Petroleum Products
40
40
38
38
36
36
34
34
32
32
30
yardeni.com
95
96
30
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 11.
16
16
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Metals & Products
14
14
12
12
10
10
2/27
8
8
6
6
4
yardeni.com
90
91
92
4
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 7 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Coal Loadings
Figure 12.
54
51
54
RAILCAR LOADINGS: COAL
(percent based on 26-wa)
51
48
48
45
45
42
42
39
39
Coal Carloadings
36
36
33
As a Percent of Total Railcar Loadings
30
As a Percent of Carloads
2/27
33
30
27
27
24
24
21
21
18
15
2000
2001
18
2/27
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15
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 13.
500
500
RAILCAR LOADINGS EXCLUDING COAL
(thousand units, 26-wa)
2/27
400
400
300
300
Total Railcar Loadings Excluding Coal
Total Carloads Excluding Coal
200
200
2/27
100
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2000
2001
100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Transportation Indicators & Stocks
Figure 14.
650
625
600
575
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
620
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & RAILCAR LOADINGS
600
580
Total Railcar Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa)
560
2/24
540
2/27
520
500
480
460
440
S&P 500 Transportation Index
420
400
yardeni.com
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
380
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 15.
650
625
600
575
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
145
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX
135
Jan
ATA Truck Tonnage Index
(2000=100, 3-ma, sa)
125
2/24
115
105
95
85
75
S&P 500 Transportation Index
65
yardeni.com
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
55
18
Source: American Trucking Association and Standard & Poor’s.
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Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories
Figure 16.
300
1800
RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
1700
275
2/27
1600
250
1500
225
1400
200
1300
1200
175
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
150
1100
1000
Intermodal: Total
(thousand units, 26-wa)
125
900
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100
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
800
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau.
Figure 17.
275
1900
RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
250
2/27
1700
225
200
1500
175
150
1300
125
1100
100
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
75
900
Intermodal ex Trailers
(thousand units, 26-wa)
50
yardeni.com
25
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
700
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau.
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ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories
Figure 18.
140
1900
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
Dec
1800
1700
130
1600
1500
120
1400
1300
110
1200
1100
100
1000
900
90
800
700
80
600
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
70
500
400
300
ATA Truck Tonnage Index
(2000=100, 3-ma, sa)
60
200
yardeni.com
50
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
100
0
18
Source: American Trucking Association and Census Bureau.
Figure 19.
650
1800
S&P 500 TRANSPORATION INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
Dec
600
1700
550
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
500
1600
3/1
450
1500
S&P 500 Transportation Index
400
1400
350
300
1300
250
1200
200
150
1100
100
1000
50
0
yardeni.com
89
90
91
900
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production
Figure 20.
47
10
RAILCAR LOADINGS & US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
45
Railcar Loadings:
Chemicals & Petroleum Products
(thousand units, 26-wa)
43
9
2/27
8
US Crude Oil Field Production
(million barrels per day, nsa)
41
39
7
37
6
35
5
33
4
31
29
yardeni.com
95
96
97
3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Energy.
Figure 21.
50
50
RAILCAR LOADINGS: CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM, MOTOR VEHICLES,
LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
2/27
40
40
30
30
20
20
Chemicals & Petroleum
Products (42.9)
Motor Vehicles (17.6)
Lumber & Wood Products (3.2)
10
0
10
yardeni.com
95
96
97
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 12 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Railcar Loadings
Figure 22.
400
400
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Carloads
350
350
300
300
2/27
250
250
200
200
2/27
Carloads Minus Coal
150
100
150
yardeni.com
2000
2001
100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 23.
600
600
TOTAL RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
550
550
2/27
500
500
450
450
2/27
400
400
350
350
Total Railcar Loadings
300
300
Total Railcar Loadings Excluding Coal
250
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250
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 13 / March 2, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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