A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
Su, Hsiang-Han (蘇湘涵)
National Tainan Girl’s High School
Class 317
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
Ⅰ. Introduction:
In addition to the hotly debated issues of global warming and fuel crisis, there is
another serious issue coming up recently- the food crisis. Without doubt, the rising
food prices are striking us severely. We can feel prices of our commodities
skyrocketing, including wheat, rice, corns and dairy products. Because of the rising
food prices, the nonstop protests and demonstrations almost take place every day.
However, if one takes a look at African countries, he will find it hard to realize how
difficult situation Africans are dealing with.
The rising food prices worldwide has forced about 100 million people into
hunger, most of whom live in developing countries, and the rising food prices push
them into even deeper despair. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations) lists 22 countries that are particularly threatened by the global food crisis, 18
of which are located in Africa. We can’t live without the energy from food, and so do
people live in Africa. So, what cause such plight? The thesis is aimed to focus on the
causes which lead to the food crisis, with a view to taking an inside look at this global
problem in our beloved land.
Ⅱ. Thesis
1. Present situation in Africa
Recently, UN reported that twenty-two nations are particularly threatened by the
food crisis. The soaring food prices have increased the number of people in hunger,
and lead to protests and riots in some countries. And eighteen of them are located in
Africa, they are: Eritrea, Burundi, Comoros, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Zimbabwe,
Ethiopia, Zambia, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Tanzania, Guinea-Bissau,
Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Botswana, Niger and Kenya.
The factors behind the global food crisis may be complex, but its impact is
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
simple and brutal. Those countries which need to import agricultural product are the
worst affected areas. Those who spend the largest part of their incomes on food are
the hardest stricken people. Africa, having already been the poorest and undeveloped
continent in the world, is the most impacted area of the surge of the food price. Many
of Africans live under $1 a day, while they already have spent more than 60 percent
on the daily food. The still rising food price makes it harder for them to satisfy their
basic requirements.
1.1The cost of food
In 2008, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food is expected to increase
from 4.5 to 5.5 percent. According to the World Bank reports, the global food prices has
risen 83% over the last three years; meanwhile, the FAQ mentions a 45% increase in the
world food price during the past nine months. In the case of March 2008, average world
wheat prices were 130% higher than last year, soy prices were up 87 %, rice was up 74%,
and maize was up 31%. The dairy product also shows to a higher price.
Price rises in % in a single year,
March 2007-March 2008
150
Wheat
Corn
Rice
Soybean
100
130
50
74
87
31
0
Source: BBC, Bloomberg, FAO
Commodity
Maize
Annual Averages
Unit
USD/metric ton
Jan-Dec 2006
Jan-Dec 2007
Jan-July 2008
121.9
163.7
239.7
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
Wheat
USD/metric ton
192.0
255.2
379.2
Rice
USD/metric ton
304.9
326.4
669.7
Barley
USD/metric ton
116.6
172.4
227.9
Soybeans
USD/metric ton
264
384
574
Beef
US cent/kg
254.7
260.3
307.4
Chicken
US cent/kg
138.8
156.7
163.3
Sheep
US cent/kg
403.6
412.0
473.4
Sugar
US cent/kg
32.59
22.22
27.22
Source: World Bank
As you can see from the chart, all the commodities listed above have risen to
higher prices. And of all the commodities, prices of grains such as maize, wheat, rice
have tremendously risen between 2007 and 2008. Besides, soybeans, mostly refined
into oil, are also rising significantly.
1.2 Influence: Ethiopia, a case study
As an oldest independent country in Africa, Ethiopia has never been colonized.
However, the country is known for its periodic droughts and famines; moreover, its
long history of civil conflict and a border war with Eritrea hinder the nation’s
development. In the 1970s and 1980s, the combination of drought, famine, war and
poorly planned policies brought millions of people to the brink of starvation. Now,
Ethiopia is one of Africa's poorest countries. Almost two-thirds of its people are
illiterate. The economy revolves around agriculture, which, unfortunately, relies on
unpredictable rainfall.
Food crisis in Ethiopia has affected more than 4.5 million people. According to
the authorities, the country has only 33 percent of the food needs available in stock.
Drought and escalating food prices have left millions vulnerable and in need of food.
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
It reminds people of the famines of 1984-85 which killed over 1 million people.
People have become so desperate for food that they are eating seeds that were meant
for their next harvest.
For most of the past three decades, Ethiopia has survived on millions tons of
donated food and millions of dollars. It has received more emergency support than
any other African nation at that time. However, poverty remains a big problem. While
droughts cost them a lot, the situation isn’t much better even in good years. Some 5
millions people still need food aid just to survive. And though its population is
increasing by 2 million every year, its agricultural production has steadily fallen.
Ethiopia is so poor that it takes only one bad rainy season to make more people into
crisis. The situation is, when foreign aid lands, local prices collapse, and farmers who
have managed to produce a surplus find their crop is actually worthless. Besides,
Ethiopia imports (4.8 billion USD) more than it exports (1.2 billion USD), and the
commodities that export to the world are subject to price fluctuations and unjust trade
rules.
In conclusion, cycles of drought, high food prices, overpopulation (78 million,
2008) as well as trading defects have been the major causes of Ethiopia food crisis.
2. Causes
2.1Climate Change
Climate change and agriculture has long been related to each other. For instance,
through the process of deforestation and the release of greenhouse gases, the climate
has significantly changed. On the contrary, climate change now threatens to damage
natural resources on which agriculture depends.
Climate change, mostly related to the change in global temperature, rainfall and
wind. The effects of global warming are already visible in much of the world. In some
areas, moderate warming can slightly increase crop yields. But overall, negative
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
impacts are much more obvious than positive ones. Floods and droughts become more
frequent and severe, which are likely to affect farm productivity and the livelihoods of
rural communities.
Global Temperature Record
Temperature anomaly(℃)
Source: Climate Research Unit
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
The direct impact of the climate change is the shortage of the grain production,
especially the drought that happened in major wheat-producing countries such as
Australia. Africa is, on average, 0.5℃ warmer than it was 100 years ago. Arid or
semi-arid areas in northern, western, eastern and parts of southern Africa are
becoming drier, while equatorial Africa and other parts of southern Africa are getting
wetter. The unpredictable climate makes it harder for farmers to make any quick
adaption.
2.2Overpopulation
Undoubtedly, the increasing world population not only has made the world more
crowded, but also has made the rising demand for food. Besides, overpopulation also
has caused the problem of land and water deficits. Up to July 8, 2008, the world's
population is believed to be approximately 6,708,700,100.
Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of
2.19% in 1963, but it remains high in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. In
2007, the average birth rate for the whole world was 20.3 per year per 1000 total
population. However, in Africa, the birth rate was 36.2 ‰, much higher than the
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
world average. The number of people lives in one area has exceeded capacity of our
earth. The distribution of land, water as well as food therefore becomes the major
issue.
Population Growth Rate(%)
Source: United Nations Population Division
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2.45
2.32
1.37
19952000
1.24
20002005
2.35
1.17
Africa
World
20052010
2.3 Trade Policies
As most of African countries rely on food imports, trade policies become
extraordinarily important. The lack of stable trade system could be a huge factor. Over
six years of trade negotiations, Doha Round (It is the current trade-negotiation round
of the WTO which started in November 2001.), which aims to lower trade barriers,
couldn’t reach a consensus. As the food crisis goes on, at least 24 countries have
reduced tariffs or taxes on imports. However, many argue that trade liberalization isn’t
the solution to the food crisis.
Another huge problem is that wealthy countries often subsidize their domestic
agricultures, which makes developing countries hard to compete with their low prices.
Besides, numerous countries, from Argentina to Russia, have build export barriers in
order to support domestic food supply. With limiting exports, countries that depend on
food imports first feel the consequences. Those are most developing countries,
including African countries.
2.4 Fuel Prices
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With high oil prices, inevitably, the transportation fees will also go higher. This
makes trucking food from farm to local markets, and shipping abroad more expansive.
It turns out that food prices are rising so as to respond to the cost. Nowadays, crude
oil prices soar to 137 USD per barrel, and it seems to be increasing steadily. The
rising oil prices both directly and indirectly impact on commodity prices as well as
people’s daily consumption.
Annual Average U.S Crude Oil Prices
(USD/per barrel)
Source: IOGA (The Illinois Oil & Gas Association)
150
100
50
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
0
2.5 Biofuels
This has long been a controversial issue. Food or fuel? An estimated 100 million
tons of grains are being used to produce from food to fuel. United States, where
making biofuels is subsidized, has lured thousands of farmers away from growing
crops for food. Corn is the primary crop used for the production of ethanol, with
America being the biggest producer. In July, 2006, 20% of corn crops were being used
for ethanol, in August, 2007, it’s up 3%. USDA (United States Department of
Agriculture) estimated by the time of September, 2008, 34% of corn crops will be
used for ethanol production. In addition to U.S, some European countries have also
devoted to biofuel development, such as England, France and Germany. This has led
to less food available for human consumption, especially in poor countries, where a
family’s daily budget for food purchase is quite limited. Ironically, amounts of maize
needed to fill a tank of an average car with biofuels are as much as an African person
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
consuming in an entire year. Apparently, we could expect food prices to rise with the
supply not enough to fulfill the demand.
Percentage Of Corn Crops Used For Ethanol (million bushels)
Corn Production
Ethanol Usage
Ethanol Usage/ Production
2006/7
10,535
2,117
20%
2007/8
13,074
3,000
23%
2008/9 (projection)
11,735
4,000
34%
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
2.6 Change of diets
Clearly, when we consume more, we have to produce more to meet our
consumption. Since 1980, meat consumption in Brazil per person has more than
doubled to 197 pounds a year. In China, it has even quadrupled to 109 pounds per
person. It takes about 7 pounds of corn to produce 1 pound of beef, 6.5 pounds of corn
to produce 1 pound of pork, and 2.6 pounds of corn to produce 1 pound of chicken,
according to the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). With corn prices
rising to $6 a bushel, compared with an average of $3.4 in 2007, the time of cheap
meat may be over.
2.7 Speculation
To make the problem worse, some speculators deliberately pour billions of
money into commodities, hoarding them, further accelerating food prices. Speculative
investment in commodity, which, according to some estimates, reaches as much as $1
billion a day during February and March, has made prices more volatile and
unpredictable. With the speculative trade in the world, the food prices couldn’t reflect
real supply and demands.
2.8 Foreign Aid
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Many African countries are the main recipients of large amounts of foreign aid.
This, however, could be another form of food-dumping. While “foreign aid” flows
into those countries, the local trade market is distorted. Rural famers couldn’t compete
with the low price which wealthy countries bring in.
2.9 Environmental Destruction
Needless to say, with more and more people living in this world, our
environment has become very different, compared with that hundred years ago. Less
land is used for growing crops because of growing population and urbanization. With
decreasing productivity of soil and reducing biodiversity, the quality of land remains a
huge problem for most developing countries which results in bad harvest. Besides,
lack of water is also a concern for sub-Saharan area. How to use the land properly and
keep its sustainability is the task which needs to be tackled.
2.10 Wars, Political Conflicts, Corruption, HIV/AIDS
Africa is a place long suffering from civil war as well as border conflicts. In
2004, the chairman of the African Union Commission, Alpha Oumar Konare,
reminded the AU summit that the continent had suffered from 186 coups and 26 major
wars in the past 50 years. As a result, it is estimated that there are more than million
refugees in Africa.
Corruption in Africa is costing the continent nearly $150 billion dollars a year,
according to a new report. Corruption increases the cost of goods by as much as 20%,
deterring investment and holding back development.
HIV/AIDS as well as other diseases accounts for African instability. It is
estimated that 22.5 million people are currently living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan
Africa. That is two-thirds of HIV/AIDS cases reported globally.
Wars, political conflicts, corruption and diseases are some issues that have long
impacted Africa, and they lead to instability and uncertainty in Africa. With the world
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
food crisis emerging, the above problems just make the matter worse. We can’t help
but ask how people could work in this bad condition and afford their daily
consumption.
Ⅲ. Conclusion
Causes of the food crisis in Africa vary. Many reasons contribute to the food
crisis. Nevertheless, we hardly could tell which is to blame or which the main factor is.
African hunger is a systemic crisis as well as a global crisis. Nowadays, the world
becomes a close community; therefore, countries linked to each other. What happens
to a small area may affect the whole. Globally, climate change, overpopulation,
changing eating habits as well as the most concerned oil prices are all related to
soaring food prices this year. However, an ineffective trade system can also impact the
food prices, afterward triggers the food crisis. What makes African problem worse is
the long-existing poverty, endless wars and appalling sanitation. These combined have
made Africa now struggle more in the food crisis. An analysis of causes of African
food crisis gives us a better view to find a solution right to the urgent issue.
Ⅳ. References
1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations http://www.fao.org/
2. World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/
3. United States Department of Agriculture http://www.usda.gov/
4. Washington Post: Global Food Crisis
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/globalfoodcrisis/
5. Wikipedia: 2007-2008 World Food Price Crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_world_food_price_crisis
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A Brief Analysis of Causes of the Food Crisis in Africa
6. BBC: Food Price Crisis
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/world/2008/costoffood/default.stm
7. Global Food Crisis 2008 http://www.globalissues.org/food/crisis-2008/
8. Africa’s Hunger - a systemic crisis http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4662232.stm
9. Ethiopia’s International Trade
http://selamafrica.blogspot.com/2006/04/ethiopias-international-trade.html
10. Marianne Lavelle, Kent Garber, May 9, 2008 “8 Ways to Fix the Global Food
Crisis” U.S.News
11. Corruption costs Africa billions http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2265387.stm
12. Vivienne Walt, June 05, 2008 “Food Prices: Hunger Strikes” TIME
13. Keith Bradsher, April 17, 2008 “A Drought in Australia, a Global Shortage of
Rice” The New York Times
14. Sophia Murphy, “Will free trade solve the food crisis?”, Food Ethics Summer
‘08
15. BBC Country Profile: Ethiopia
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1072164.stm
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