MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF INDONESIA SECRETARY GENERAL BUREAU OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION SERVICE Dr. Wahidin Street No.1 Jakarta 10710 Telephone: (021) 3449230 eks. 6347-6348 & 3500849 <> Fax: 3500847 website: http://www.kemenkeu.go.id <> e-mail: humas@kemenkeu.go.id Number : 2/KLI/2014 Date : 5 January 2014 MACRO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND REALIZATION OF THE REVISED STATE BUDGET 2013 1. The realization of Revised State Budget 2013 (APBNP 2013) was effectively maintained in the safe levels. This achievement is the result of the efforts in managing macroeconomic conditions and the prudent fiscal policy measures taken consistently during APBNP execution in 2013, despite the challenges of the global and national economy. In general, the macro economic conditions during 2013 showed the following developments. a. Economic growth is estimated at 5.7 %, it is lower than the targeted assumptions of economic growth in 2013 of 6.3 % stated in APBNP2013. The estimation is based on the realization of economic growth until the third quarter of 2013 reached 5.83% and the economic growth in the fourth quarter which is estimated to slow down. The estimated lower figure of economic growth is mainly influenced by the developments in the global economy throughout 2013, including the declining of export commodity prices. b. The inflation rate of 2013 was successfully controlled in the range of 8.38%, yet is still higher than the inflation rate assumed in the APBNP 2013 which was set at 7.2%. The higher inflation rate in 2013 is mainly caused by the increase in fuel price hike and the weakening of the rupiah as well as its associated impact on the domestic commodity prices. c. Realization of average interest rate SPN - 3 months in 2013 reached 4.5 %, or below the assumption of APBNP 2013 which was set at 5.0%. The relatively low realization rate of SPN 3 months is in line with the high demand for government securities. d. Realization of average rupiah exchange rate in 2013 reached IDR10,452/US$; which is weakened compared to the target assumption of APBNP 2013 set at IDR9,600/US$ . The depreciation of the exchange rate is influenced by the tapering off plan set by US Central Bank, as well as the global and national economic development. e. Realization of Indonesian crude oil average price reached US$106/barrel; lower than the assumptions in the APBNP 2013 amounted to US$108/barrel. The relatively stable price of crude oil in 2013 is attributable to the low rate in global demand despite the adequate supply of global oil, and to the geopolitical stability, especially in the crude oil producing countries. f. Realization of Indonesia’s average crude oil and gas lifting in the period of December 2012 to November 2013 respectively reached 825 thousand barrels per day and 1,213 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The figure is still below the planned target in the APBNP 2013, which is respectively set at 840 thousand barrels per day and 1,240 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. 2. Based on the outlook for macroeconomic indicators in 2013 mentioned above, as well as fiscal policy measures taken during the year 2013, the realization of the APBNP 2013 can be maintained at a safe level. a. Realization of state revenues reached IDR1,429.5 trillion. This figure showed about 95.2 percent of the plans set out in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR1,502.0 trillion . Of the total revenue stated above, the realization of tax revenue reached IDR1,072.1 trillion; IDR76.3 trillion short of the target set in the APBNP 2013 of IDR1,148.4 trillion (93.4 percent realization). The figure was a result of the slowdown in economic growth in 2013 and the increase in taxable income policy as well as the slowing activity in the manufacturing sector, mining, and finance. In addition, the transfer of Land and Building Tax (PBB) revenue of rural sector to the urban sector also contributed to the realization of PBB revenue. Furthermore, the successful downstream policy of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) industry also affected the revenue of export duty. On the other hand, the realization of non-tax revenues (PNBP) in 2013 reached IDR352.9 trillion; higher by IDR3.7 trillion of the plan set out in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR349.2 trillion (101.1 per cent realization). The achievement was mainly derived from the realization of PNBP revenue from natural resource (SDA) revenues. b. Realization of state expenditure in 2013 reached IDR1,639.0 trillion, or about 94.9 percent of state expenditure budget ceilings set out in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR1,726.2 trillion. The details can be seen as follows : Realization of central government expenditures reached IDR1,125.7 trillion, or is equivalent to 94.1 percent of central government’s expenditure ceiling set in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR1,196.8 trillion. The absorption of central government expenditures from the APBNP 2013 was affected by the expenditure of state ministries/agencies (K/L), which accounted for about 90.1 per cent of the budget ceiling set in APBNP 2013. Realization of budget transfers to Local Government reached IDR513.3 trillion, or 3.0 percent lower than the budget ceiling set in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR529.4 trillion. c. With the realization of the state budget revenues amounted to IDR1,429.5 trillion, and the realization of the state budget amounted to IDR1,639.0 trillion, the realization of the budget deficit in the implementation of APBNP 2013 reached IDR209.5 billion (2.24 percent of GDP). The realization of this budget deficit is lower than the budget deficit target set in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR224.2 billion (2.38 percent of GDP). d. Realization of the budget financing in 2013 reached IDR230.1 trillion. This means that it reached IDR5.9 trillion (102.6 per cent) higher than the planned target in the APBNP 2013 amounted to IDR224.2 trillion. The realization of budget financing sourced from domestic financing amounted to IDr243.4 trillion, and foreign financing (net) amounted to negative IDR13.3 trillion. e. With the realization of the budget deficit amounted to IDR209.5 trillion, and the realization of budget financing reached IDR230.1 trillion, then in the execution of the APBN 2013 there is financing surplus (SiLPA) amounted to about IDR20.5 trillion. 2013 2012 Realization of APBNP (in trillion Rupiahs) STATE REVENUE I. DOMESTIC REVENUE 1. TAX REVENUE 2. NON-TAX REVENUE II. GRANT REVENUE STATE EXPENDITURE I. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE II. TRANSFER TO LOCAL GOVERNMENT 1. Balancing Fund 2. Special Autonomy and Adjustment Fund PRIMARY BALANCE BUDGET DEFICIT SURPLUS (A - B) % Deficit to GDP FINANCING (I – II) I. DOMESTIC FINANCING II. FOREIGN FINANCING (nett) SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) OF FINANCING LKPP Audited 1,338.1 1,332.3 980.5 351.8 5.8 1,491.4 1,010.6 480.6 411.3 69.4 (52.8) (153.3) (1.86) 175.2 198.6 (23.5) 21.9 APBNP 1,502.0 1,497.5 1,148.4 394.2 4.5 1,726.2 1,196.8 529.4 445.5 83.8 (111.7) (224.2) (2.38) 224.2 241.1 (16.9) 0.0 Temporary realization to 31 December 1,429.5 1,425.0 1,072.1 352.9 4.5 1,639.0 1,125.7 513.3 430.4 82.9 (96.8) (209.5) (2.24) 230.1 234.4 (13.3) 20.5 Head of Bureau (signed) Yudi Pramadi NIP 195808111983111001 % to APBNP 95.2 95.2 93.4 101.1 100.0 94.9 94.1 97.0 96.6 98.9 86.6 93.5 102.6 101.0 79.1 -