•
PHILIPPINE REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS
IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING: 1960
PETER C. SMITH
ABSTRACT. This paper examines geographical differentials in the timing and extent of
marriage and childbearing in the Philippines. Province-levelcensus data for 1960 are utilized to estimate fertility levels and to describe marriage patterns for Philippine provinces.
A typology of regional divisions respecting timing of marriage, level of fertility, and
universality of marriage is also presented. Differentials on the province level are presented
by means of a series of maps. The impact of selected independent variables upon these
differentials is assessed using correlation and multiple regression. A concluding section
discusses the implications of the present findings for subsequent investigations into areal
variations in Philippine marriage and family-building patterns.
•
Geographical differentials in marriage and childbearing in the Philippines have rarely been
examined systematically, largely because provincial and municipal-level fertility estimates
have not been readily available. The 1939
province-level parity data - the first data of
this kind to become available for the Philippines - were examined by Taeuber (1960), but
no thorough province-level analysis has been
conducted since. In particular, the 1960 Census
parity data for provinces have never been
exploited fully, although Regudo (1965a) inspected these data for three census regions and
Pascual (l971) made some use of 1960 parity
information.
National demographic parameters, on the
other hand, have received more attention, for
two reasons. First, most data since 1939 have
been adequate only for national- level analysis,
either because of small sample sizes or the failure to tabulate for sub-national units. I Second,
recent national-level analyses have been motivated by the need for a baseline with which to
evaluate the family-planning program now underway.
However, while the primary stress of most
159
•
demographic analysis in the Philippines has
been upon national estimates and projections,
there is no reason to expect areal uniformity
with respect to human behavior - certainly not
in the Philippines. The nation is a melange of
races and ethnicities, and amalgamation has
only just begun. The discontinuous island environment is a fundamental source of areal
variation - in both the quantity and nature of
exploitable resources. Arrangements for the
getting of livelihood, therefore, as well as
cultural systems, vary widely over the landscape. The result is considerable areal variation
respecting social institutions, normative understandings and, ultimately, patterns of individual
behavior. The dynamic process of family building and reproduction is one realm in which
these variations are clearly manifest.
Geographical differences in family structure
and in the timing of family building are easily
documented with simple indexes, as this paper
demonstrates. Marital patterns vary considerably across regions and provinces with respect
to both timing and universality, and marital
fertility displays an equally important (though
smaller) degree of variation. In this paper we
160
utilize the 1960 Census parity data to describe
these differentials for 1960, primarily by means
of a series of maps. Employing correlation and
regression procedures, we go on to isolate some
of the determinants of interprovincial levels of
marital fertility and the timing of marital
union. In a concluding section we indicate some
areas in which additional research seems warranted.
The 1960 data utilized here are essentially
similar to those for 1939 examined by Taeuber,
but out effort differs from hers in several
ways.! We utilize, in addition to the usual
measures, a new index of fertility first presented by Coale (1965, 1969). The index is suited
to aggregate areal data and is efficient at sorting
out marriage and marital fertility components
of overall fertility. In addition, we provide
some measure of cross-verification of results,
since we examine divergent types of data and
not only those on average parity.
The present report updates Taeuber's findings from the 1939 Census, performing the
analysis of 1960 Census data called for in her
paper of that year. As Taeuber noted then,
women of completed fertility at the time of the
1939 Census (i.e., aged 45-54) were born at
the end of the 19th century.
Most of them were married before the First World
War. In most provinces, 85 to 90 per cent had never
attended school. The women and their husbands had
secured their livinglargely by agricultural or other local
subsistence activities or with handicraft production.
Social and economic differentiations were not absent,
but they were limited (Taeuber 1960: 110).
For women of completed fertility in 1939,
the relationship of marriage and fertility patterns to social and economic variations was
surprisingly weak.
Women aged 45 to 54 in 1960, on the other
hand, were progeny of the 20th century, born
shortly before World War I but after the
revolutionary upheavals. By that juncture a new
colonial power and yet another social and
cultural overlay had been imposed. These 20th
century cohorts, the present analysis suggests,
have been responding somewhat more to new
social and economic pressures and opportuni-
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
•
ties, and somewhat less to older ethnic and
religious forces.
A brief comment on levels of analysis is in
order. The ecological perspective taken here is
meant to supplement differential fertility
studies on the individual level. While individuallevel studies are essential to understanding
childbearing phenomena, some of the determinants of individual-level fertility behavior are
essentially societal or structural (vis-a-vis the
household) in nature. Thus, for example, the
sex ratio, an aggregate concept, affects age at
marriage for females, which in tum bears upon
overall fertility levels. This is a relationship
which can be highlighted only by ecological
data for local areas. In addition, determinants
of childbearing which are individual level in
nature often have characteristic spatial distributions; independent variables reflecting ethnic
status and province socioeconomic status (SES)
,__
levels are cases in point.
It is ultimately intended to carry the present
effort to the municipal level, where marriage
and fertility differentials have never been assessed quantitatively. Our experimentation here
with age-structure estimates of fertility was
conducted with this intention in mind. Extensions will be made across time as well, using
1939 and earlier census information for provinces and municipalities as well as data forthcoming from the 1970 Census. The methods
and computer programs developed here can be
applied directly to the new data as they become
available.
In the following section we summarize the
available census data on marriage and fertility
and describe the indexes that are utilized in this
analysis. The Appendix presents a comparison
of some of the indexes, and provides some
notion of their consistency and accuracy.
•
Province-Level Indicators
ofMarriage and Fertility
The Data. Reliable demographic data for
sub-national areal units are only available from
the census rounds. The 1903 and 1918 censuses
contain information on sex and civil status by
•
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•
REGIONAL ANDPROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
province (age breakdowns are provided only in
1903), while the 1939 Census shows civil status
by age and sex, and gives this information for
municipalities as well as provinces. As we noted
above, this is the earliest source of retrospective
data on children ever bom (CEB) to ever-married women. Similar marital-status information
is available for 1948, but only national-level
parity data were tabulated.
In 1960 marital status by age and sex is
available for provinces though not for municipalities, while province-level data on children
ever bom are available for ever-married women
in a 10-per-cent sample of enumerated households?
The 1960 Census suffers from the usual
problems of census administration in an underdeveloped country. Age inaccuracies are of
course present, including some underenumeration of children (Lorimer 1966:281ff.), adjustments for which are considered briefly below.
The sequence of questions asked of ever-married women in 1960 seems superior to that in
1939 but not as elaborate as in the bi-annual
surveys of 1956 and 1958 (Regudo, 1965a:8).
In 1939 enumerators simply recorded the
"number of children ever bom to this woman."
In 1960 women were asked how many children
they had borne by that time, and in addition,
the number of these currently alive. In contrast
to the 1956 and 1958 Philippine Statistical
Survey of Households (PSSH) surveys, however,
they were not asked how many children they
had borne alive who had died subsequently.
Despite the sequence of questions employed,
however, the parity data for 1960 seem slightly
inferior to those for 1939. This is indicated by
a comparison of 1939 and 1960 completed
children ever born. Where national completed
fertility in 1939 was 6.36 CEB per woman
(aged 45-54), it was 6.02 CEB in 1960 (aged
45-49). Since current consensus places actual
completed CEB in 1960 at about 6.8 (Lorimer
1966) or perhaps somewhat less, both census
estimates of completed fertility apparently understate true levels, slightly less so in 1939 than
in 1960. Nevertheless, there is no reason to
suspect that errors of this kind distort fertility
161
differentials in 1939 or in 1960. The present
analysis stresses areal variations in fertility and
only secondarily does it examine actual fertility
levels.
Computation of indexes. In the absence of a
viable system of vital registration, the available
indexes of fertility in 1960 are of two types:
(A) measures derived from age-sex information,
and (B) measures based on responses with
respect to past childbearing. Specifically, the
following fertility indexes have been examined:
A. Based on age-sex structure
AI. child-woman ratio (0-4/15-44);
A2. child-woman ratio (5-9/20-49);
A3. birth rate from census pop. 0-4 and
reverse survival;
A4. birth rate from census pop. 5-9 and
reverse survival.
B. Based on retrospective responses
with respect to fertility
B1. cumulative CEB by age 45-49;
B2. birth rate based on age-specific fertility rates derived from the 'Brass'
technique applied to cumulative CEB;
B3.
total fertility rate based on age-specific
fertility rates.
Marriage patterns are readily indexed by
proportions single in five-year age groups. In
particular, the per cent single at age 20-24 is a
sensitive index of the timing of movement from
the single to the married state, while the per
cent ever married by age 45-54 is a useful
indicator of the universality of marriage in the
populations in question. Finally, singulate mean
ages at marriage (SMAM) are easily calculated
from these data (Hajnal 1953) and afford
summary measures of the timing of marriage
within the areal units under study.
Our child-woman ratios (AI and A2) were
computed directly from census figures, without
162
adjustment. In the absence of enumeration
error, Al and A2 are' indexes of fertility
centering 2.5 and 7.5 years prior to the census;
in this ideal circumstance, differences between
them reflect changing fertility in the pre-census
decade. In the present"case, however,' as the
Appendix indicates, the 1960 Census is n<;>t
error-free, and differences between Al and A2 .
in fact reflect the greater under-enumeration of
the youngest age group.
Birth rates by reverse survival (A3 and A4)
were also based upon census age-sex information. Enumerated.. populations aged 0-4 and
5-9 in 1960 are the survivors of birth cohorts
of the periods 1955-1959 and 1950-1954,
respectively. The reverse survival of these populations, therefore, yielded estimates of the
original sizes of these cohorts," Respective.
. mid-period populations, estimated by assuming
a constant rate of growth over .1939-1960,
formed the denominators with which birth
rates were calculated.! .
The 1960 census' retrospective information:
was available, although unpublished, in the'
form of cumulative children ever bomto
ever-married women' in five-year age groups
(Bt). Application of the Brass graduation procedure (Brass 1960)6 produced for each province an age-specific fertility schedule correspondingto the observed schedule of cumulative
children ever born. The sum of these age-speci'fie fertility rates is of course the total fertility
rate (B3). When the rates are applied to
enumerated females by age in 1960 they also
yield an estimate of the provincial birth rate
(B2).
The Appendix provides a brief evaluationof
the usefulness of these various indexes, by
comparisons between them across regional and
provincial areal units. As a consequence of this
evaluation we elected to work with the paritybased indexes rather than those based on age
structure. In particular, we have relied heavily
upon a set of analytic indexes based on the
parity information. These indexes are described
in the section following.
Additional indexes. The' overall level of
fertility of a province reflects two underlying .
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
components: (a) the prevailing pattern and level
of m~rital. fertility, and (b) predominant custom respecting the timing of marriage. It is very
helpful to separate these components in attempting to discuss fertility differentials, especially if one is searching for causal patterns.
Factors bearing upon one component may be
'largely unimportant with respect to the other,
. as w~ see below.
Simple indexes conveniently sorting out
these two components of overall fertility level
havebeen'developed by Coale for application in
a study of the fertility transition in European
provinces (Coale 1969). Coale's indexes require
age-specific fertility rates and numbers of women by age and whether ever-married. This
.information is combined with an hypothetical
maximum fertility schedule - the age-specific
fertility schedule of married Hutterite women - and three' indexes are generated, If (an
overall inde~ of fertilityj, 'Iin.. ...<an index of
female proportions married), and" Ig (an index
of marital fertility). 7
.
.
•
The computational formulas are: .
If
=
1m.
=
Ig
-
'.
~ Wi fi
~
Wi Fi
~
m'1 Fi
w·1 F·1
and
Wi f-1
mi Fi
, where
~
.
~
~
The fi are observed age-specific fertility rates,
Wi and m] are numbers of women and married
women, respectively, and F] is the fertility
schedule of married Hutterite women." The
index i ranges in five-year intervals from 15 to 50.
The Hutterite schedule of marital fertility
serves as a hypothetical maximum level, and the
indexes express fertility relative to this standard.? Thus, If indexes overall, actual fertility
relative to that had' the Hutterite schedule
. prevailed among all women, including the unmarried, in.'·the population in question. Ig
•
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REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
indexes actual fertility relative to an hypothetical maximum within marriage. 1m indexes the
effect on fertility of proportions married. 1m
can be re-stated as a weighted average of
proportions married, wherein the weights are
the Hutterite marital fertility rates. Thus, highfertility ages are weighted most heavily. The
indexes are really relative measures of fertility
performance, indirectly standardized for age
within the childbearing period with the Hutterite marital fertility schedule as the standard.
RegionalDifferentials in
Marriage and Fertility
In this section some observations are made
with respect to regional differentials in marriage
and childbearing. The key data for this discussion are given in Tables 1 and 2.
•
.
•
Marriage. Marriage in the Philippines is not
particularly early for a traditional society, nor
is it anything like universal for females. More
than 40 per cent of Filipino females aged
20-24 in 1960 were still single, and 7.3 per
cent of those 45-54 had never married at all.
Hajnal's SMAM for the Philippines in 1960 is a
moderately high 22.3. 1 0
The ten census regions exhibit some interesting differentials. There is little variation in
mean age at marriage, except that Manila
exhibits a somewhat older average age while
marriage occurs early in the frontier-like Cagayan Valley area and in Mindanao. Per cents
single are much more sensitive indexes of the
timing of marriage, however. Thus the per cent
single at age 20-24 is quite high (70 per cent)
for Manila, but is low for the Bicol area (Region
VI) and Mindanao (Regions IX and X), in
addition to Cagayan. Delayed marriage in the
metropolitan center is of course expected,
while the areas of early marriage are all rapidly
expanding agricultural areas with relatively high
sex ratios. I I
The birth rate. The three independent birthrate estimates shown in Table I are mutually
consistent for the total Philippines, but are
much less so for many of the regions. With the
exception of Region VI, estimates based on the
163
enumerated population 5-9 are higher than
those based on persons aged 0-4, a finding
which reflects the differential underenumeration of the two age groups involved. In only
two cases is the Brass estimate higher than the
average of A3 and A4. In general, this average
seems a plausible choice as a single estimate,
since averaging cancels the effect of those
age-response errors contributing to a net shift
across age five.
Only two regions (II and VI) have estimates
differing by more than four births per
thousand, and the Region-VI estimates are
nevertheless broadly consistent, both indexes
indicating relatively high fertility levels. Only
Region II presents a serious anomaly. The B::ass
estimate here is only 34 births per thousand,
the lowest of the regional levels, while agestructure information places the birth rate at
close to the national average. The estimate from
retrospective information seems to us most
accurate, especially in the light of likely distortions in age structure due to out-migration."?
If. 1m and Ig. Expressed relative to the
Hutterite fertility schedule as a hypothetical
maximum, Philippine fertility stands at 0.48;
marital patterns alone reduce fertility by 35 per
cent, while fertility within marriage is at about
75 per cent of that observed for the Hutterites.
Of the total "lost" fertility, about two-thirds is
due to the timing of marriage while the
remaining third reflects less-than-maximum
marital fertility.
The census regions vary considerably on
these indexes (see Table 2). In terms of sources
of lost fertility, however, the marriage pattern
is consistently most important, accounting for
three to four-fifths of the total lost in each
case.
Figure I arrays the ten census regions with
respect to their scores on 1m and Ig, establishing graphically a typology of regional units
respecting "early-late marriage" and "high-low
marital fertility" dimensions. (The horizontal
and vertical lines indicate respective national
levels on Ig and ImJ Six of the 10 regions show
significant deviations from the national level on
-
a..
~
•
•
•
I
•
::00
!j
sz
>
r-
~
o
-e
::00
o
<
Table 2
~
Indexes ofoverall fertility, marriage pattern and marital fertility, and decompositions
ofhypothetical maximum fertility: total Philippines and ten census regions, 1960
Census
Indexes
Philippines
Manila
Ilocos
Mt.
Prov.
II
Cagayan Central Southern
Valley
Luzon
Luzon
III
IV
V
;;
t""
o
=r;
region
Bicol
VI
"r1
trl
Western
Visayas
Eastern
Visayas
North
Eastern
Mindanao
South
Western
Mindanao
VII
VIII
IX
X
~
;;
etI:l
Z
Coalefertility indexes
1) If
2) 1m
3) Ig
::00
3:
.48
.65
.75
.37
.49
.76
.41
.69
.60
.56
.78
.72
.52
.67
.78
.50
.66
.76
.59
.72
.82
.53
.66
.80
.51
.69
.73
.55
.75
.72
.55
.75
.74
>
::00
::00
;;
C)
trl
Decomposition of maximum fertility
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
Actual/maximum (%)
Lost within marriage/maximum (%)
Lost outside marriage/maximum (%)
Lost within marriage/total lost (%)
Lost outside marriage/total lost (%)
48.36
16.34
35.30
31.65
68.35
37.42
11.78
50.80
16.80
83.20
40.98
27.70
31.32
42.98
57.02
56.03
21.58
22.40
43.55
56.45
52.49
14.83
32.68
27.60
72.40
50.19
16.21
33.61
28.98
71.02
59.31
12.70
27.99
26.57
73.43
52.87
13.12
34.01
24.47
75.53
51.01
18.45
30.54
33.37
66.63
54.65
20.82
24.52
40.40
59.60
55.32
19.20
25.48
37.98
62.02
~
o
"r1
>
3:
i=
0<
t:I:l
c::
i=
o
~
-
a-.
V>
166
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
at least one of the dimensions. Bicolanos both
marry early and exhibit uniquely high levels of
marital fertility, and actual fertility (If) for
Region VI (.59) reflects this pronatalist cultural
configuration.
Three regions (III, IX, and X) show relatively high values for 1m. Overall fertility in these
areas is near the national average, but only
because marital fertility is moderate. Each of
these three regions is a "frontier" area characterized by heavy in-movement and the rapid
extension of agriculture to newly developed
territories. Cagayan and northeastern Mindanao, particularly, have been populated by Bocanos and Visayans, respectively, escaping rural
saturation in their native regions. Early marriage for females in these areas is probably a
direct function of the high frontier sex ratios
which prevail there (see the correlation and
regression analysis below). Southwestern Mindanao, in addition, has a large Muslim population with a traditional pattern of early marriage
for females.
Manila, with a relatively low If, exhibits a
very late age at marriage but moderate to high
fertility within marriage. Lastly, the Ilocos area
is unique in that it maintains a relatively low
level on Ig - fertility within marriage. While it
commonly has been felt that the low overall
fertility of Ilocanos is to a considerable degree
the result of delayed marriage, the" present
fmdings indicate that the relatively low fertility
of this region is largely due to a unique
"semi-modern" level of childbearing within
marriage.l '
Figure 1 incorporates a third typological
dimension - "universality-non-universality of
marriage" for females. Interestingly, the four
non-unique provinceson 1m and Ig are also very
near 'the national level (about 7 per cent never
marrying by age 50) on this component of
family building. All the regions with early
marriage (III, VI, IX, X) also exhibit a pattern
of nearly universal female marriage(about 3 per
cent never marrying). Ilocos ana Manila are,
again, unique; they show relatively large pro-
.80
o Manila
.70
Per cent Never Marrying
o High (8,1 +)
• Average (6,0-8,0)
.60
x Low (-6,0)
.50
.60
•
o Ilocos
.70
.80
Fig. 1 - Regional Valueson 1m, Ig and Per Cent Never Marrying
.
r
I
I
~.
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILYBUILDING
portions of females never marrying - around
12 and 10 per cent, respectively. Thus in the
two regions with uniquely low overall fertility,
delayed marriage (Manila) or low marital fertility (Ilocos) combine with high levels of nonmarriage to dampen fertility.
The Bicol area - the region where fertility is
highest - apparently possesses a social system
and attendant cultural values favoring early
marriage, high marital fertility, and the eventual
marriage of nearly all females.
Province-Level Differentials
•
Figures 2 through 5 portray the distributions
.
14
. dexes across provinces,
o f the summary ill
Respecting If, overall fertility, only one in five
provinces is at or below the national level of
0.48. Of these 10, three are in the Ilocos area.
Manila and two adjoining provinces are below
average, perhaps reflecting the modernizing
impact of proximity to the metropolitan area.
Iloilo in the Western Visayas is below average,
as is Cebu in the Eastern Visayas. Both these
provinces contain regional metropolitan centers
(Iloilo and Cebu). The below-average score for
Sulu is probably the result of faulty data and
should be ignored. IS In overview, excepting
two subcultural areas for which low levels may
be statistical artifacts, relatively low fertility is
found in three geographic areas, including
provinces of two types. Manila, Bulacan and
Rizal, and Iloilo and Cebu, either are, or are
dominated by, urban centers. A causal relation
is clearly suggested, though by no means
demonstrated. The three Ilocos provinces, on
the other hand, are relatively backward; their
low fertility levels would seem to derive from
cultural milieu rather than level of modernization.
Figures 3 and 4 serve to decompose the
overall patterns just examined. 1m, for example,
exhibits a quite dissimilar arrangement of relatively high and low values. The provinces of
early marriage (1m;;;:: .75) are almost uniformly
located in frontier and relatively undeveloped
areas, and of course in Mindanao - both a
frontier and the home of an early-marrying
167
cultural minority. Few provinces show a distinctly late age at marriage, and only two
(Manila and Rizal) are below an 1m of .61.
Iloilo and Cebu have relatively late marriage
ages, as do Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur.
Marital fertility does not exhibit a great deal
of variation. It is relatively high ~ .80) for
three Tagalog provinces (including one adjacent
to Manila), a good part of Bicolandia, Masbate
and Samar in the Eastern Visayas, Antique and
Negros Occidental in the Western Visayas, and
for Misamis Occidental on Mindanao. Relatively
low marital fertility is seen only in the Ilocos
provinces, excluding Abra. Marital fertility is
uniformly near, at, or above the national
average in all provinces South of the Tagalog
area (again, Sulu's low Ig is not taken as an
accurate indication of Sulu marital fertility).
Examining Figure 2, we noted that outside
the Ilocos area below-average fertility is found
only in the vicinities of Manila, Iloilo, and
Cebu. Figures 3 and 4 indicate that these levels
on If derive from different sources. In economically backward Ilocos, marital fertility is
somewhat low. In the "urban" provinces marriage is delayed while marital fertility is undiminished.
Philippine provinces show considerable variation with respect to the universality of marriage (figure 5). The per cent of females married
by age 50 ranges from 98.6 in Lanao (del Norte
and del Sur) to a very low 81.2 for Ilocos Sur.
Overall, 93.7 per cent of Filipino women
eventually marry. One in five provinces shows
one-tenth or more of all females never marrying.
The geographical distribution of this index is
enlightening. Relatively high proportions never
marrying are seen in the provinces forming the
heartland of each of three major cultural
groups - Ilocano, Tagalog, and Visayan. Each
of these areas is characterized by a degree of
out-movement to neighboring frontiers, suggesting that the per cent still single at age 50, as
well as per cents single at younger ages, may be
the product of imbalanced sex ratios, rather
than underlying cultural prescriptions.
168
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
p ,
, I
•
low
<'48 and below)
~ medium (.49 - 59)
LUZON
~ high
(.60 and over)
c=J inadequate data
.•
~
o flO
•
~.
•
Fig. 2 - Index of Overall Fertility (If)
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
169
J
I
•m
J
LUZON
I
late
( .60 and below)
average
(. 61
II
early
(.70 - .74)
~
very ear l y (,75 and over
o
co
•o
~..:..
•
N
~
SlIlu .,
.;
o
MINDANAO
Fig. 3 - Index of Marriage Pattern (1m)
.69)
170
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
•m
LUZON
low
c. 69
medium
(.70 - .79)
~
high
(.80 and over)
D
inadequate data
••
.
~
and below)
I
1
I
i
Ii
!
1
I
i
.~
•
...
.>'"
MINDANAO
•
Fig. 4 - Index of Marital Fertility (I g)
•
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
LUZON
III
very low (89% or below)
~
moderately low (90%-93%)
III
moderately high(94%-g6%)
~
very high (97% and over)
,.
o
e,•
,
~
•
o
e,
•
~
.
Sulu ~
MINDANAO
.~
•
171
Fig. 5 - Per Cent of Females Ever Marrying
172
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
Determinants ofMarriage Pattern
and Marital Fertility
In this section we employ correlation and
multiple regression analysis to explore some of
the apparent causal connections between marital fertility, the prevailing marriage pattern, and
selected explanatory variables.l" In order to be
as brief as possible, the analysis stops short of a
full elaboration upon the directions and magnitudes of the regression coefficients estimated
by each predictive equation. Most of the major
points we wish to make can be shown by means
of zero-order correlation coefficients. These are
supplemented by coefficients of multiple determination (R 2 ) for specific equations. Though a
number of alternate dependent variables might
well have been utilized, we have limited the
present analysis to If, 1m, and Ig. The reader is
by now familiar with the behavior of these
indexes. In particular, a simple relation among
them may have become apparent: If = 1m' Ig.
This is an extremely useful characteristic of
these measures since as a consequence their logs
combine additively:
In (Ie) =In (1m) + In (lg).
Utilizing (natural) logs we can therefore decompose If in a regression framework, simply by
regressing If on 1m and Ig.1 7 The R 2 for this
equation is unity, since the relation is fully
determined by an arithmetical rule. The beta
weights (standardized partial regression coefficients) are 0.81 and 0.80 for 1m and Ig,
respectively. That is, interprovincial variation in
the overall level of fertility is accounted for in
equal proportions by differences in marital
patterns and varying levels of fertility within
marriage. 1 8
The correlation between 1m and Ig across
province units is -0.24, prompting a causal
interpretation similar to that for European
nations suggested by Coale (I 965). In Europe
the negative association apparently occurs because increased control of marital fertility (lg)
over time, brought about by economic change,
has allowed a rise in 1m (earlier marriage) while
overall fertility has undergone a substantial
decline nevertheless. 1 9 As we now see, how-
ever, the causal pattern in the Philippines
appears to be quite different.
The independentvariables. Let us distinguish
several types of potential influences on 1m and
Ig. A wide range of cultural, attitudinal, and
behavioral differences across areas are simply
indexed by classifying provinces as to dominant
ethnic group in 1939 (see footnote 5, Table 4).
Economic level can be measured by a myriad of
provincial characteristics. We have elected to
utilize several characteristics of families, to wit:
per cents with electric lighting, piped water
supply, modern toilet facilities, and strong
house construction. These and other household
SES measures are highly intercorrelated, so that
the choice of specific measures is not of critical
importance. Crude density is used here as a
rough measure of agricultural economic opportunity, in part to maintain comparability
with other studies which have used this index.
Indexes of literacy include educational attainments and rates of school attendance for
selected age groups as well as per cents actually
reading magazines etc., among those who were
literate in 1939. Religion is indexed by per
cents Muslim and Roman Catholic. The availability of single males of marriageable age and
their propensity to marry are indexed by the
sex ratio at the marriageable ages, and by male
SMAMs and per cents ever marrying. Some
additional details on the independent variables
are given in the footnotes to Table 4.
The findings. The utility of separating marriage pattern from marital fertility when seeking to explain overall fertility levels is apparent
from the zero-order correlations shown in Table
3. The stub lists a series of measures indexing a
variety of forces presumed to be acting upon
overall fertility and its components. In a number of cases, associations with If, 1m, and Ig are
quite dissimilar. Often, in fact, signs differ.
Socioeconomic level (indexed by physical
characteristics of dwellings) is negatively associated with overall level of fertility, but this
effect is felt exclusively via the association
between socioeconomic level and the marriage
pattern. The association with level of marital
fertility is negligible and, if anything, positive.
Ii
•
•
173
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
Table 3
Zero-order correlations between selected variables (1939) and Ir, 1m, and Ig in 1960:
50 province units
,
,..
r
t
I
I
Variable
1m
Ig
If
-.56
-.58
-.56
-.60
-.52
.02
.09
.00
.16
.16
-.44
-.40
-045
.02
-.4()
-.15
-.07
-.44
.26
.24
.19
.26
.00
12) Per cent Roman Catholic
13) Per cent Muslim
-.24
.20
-.27
14)
15)
16)
17)
.11
-.78
-.80
.70
.19
.10
.20
-.19
1) Per cent strong construction
2) Per cent electric lighting
3) Per cent modern toilet facilities
4) Per cent running water
5) Per cent of labor force professional
6) Density
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
Per cent females 20-24 with grade IV ed.
Per cent females 14 + with grade IV ed.
Per cent population 15-17 attending school
Per cent female literacy 20-24
Per cent readership of those literate
-043
-045
Sex ratio (marriage age)
Male per cent single 20-24
Male SMAM
Male per cent ever married
-046
-.36
-.30
.O~
.12
-.19
-.16
-.35
047
.16
-.05
-.30
-.54
-048
040
Table 4
Coefficients of multipledetermination (l?2) and F-Ratios, regressions of1m and Ig
on selected setsof independentvariables
•
Independent
Dependent
variable
,
Male
information-
Economic
informations
Religion3
variables
Regions
Ethnic
groupO
Combined
influencesf
1m
I
•
iP
F ratio
.62
21.41**
.35
7.53**
.02
.23
.01
.83
1.56
2.64*
0.94
40.00**
Ig
R: 2
F ratio
.17
.15
.19
3.53*
3.20*
6.86**
.28
3.11 **
.13
.18
2.36*
2.78*
lSex ratio (marriageable ages); percentage single (males 20-24); males SMAM; male percentage ever marrying
2Percentages of families having modern toilet facilities, electric lighting, piped water, homes of strong construction
3Percentages Roman Catholic and Muslim
4Nine dummy variables distinguishing ten census regions
0Five dummy variables reflecting six ethnic groups: Tagalog, Cebuano, 1I0ko, Ilonggo, Bikol, other
6Percentage of labor force professional, percentage of families with houses of strong construction, percentage of
aged 15-17 attending school, percentage Roman Catholic, sex ratio (marriageable ages), SMAM (male).
*Significant at the .05 level
**Significant at the .01 level
174
The per cent of the labor force in professional occupations, another indicator of provincial
economic level, is associated with the three
dependent variables in a similar manner.
Density is clearly related to diminished
fertility, or perhaps more accurately, the availability of land (i.e., frontier status) is associated
with high levels of childbearing. The relationship is exclusively via the timing of marital
union, however. Marriage comes later in the
provinces which are most heavily settled.
The several education-literacy variables relate in varied ways to the fertility measures.
Educational attainment of both sexes combined
has a slight positive association with overall
fertility, while the correlations between school
attendance (both sexes) and female literacy and
overall fertility are negative. The level of media
readership of those who are literate is also
associated negatively with overall fertility. All
these measures except the last show small
positive associations with marital fertility. Literacy and educational attainment uniformly
show negative associations with 1m. As expected, 1939 school attendance and female literacy
at the peak period of fertility show the strongest negative relationships with 1m. In causal
terms, female entrance to marital union seems
to be delayed by continued school attendance
beyond age 15, and by heightened literacy.
Differences in religious composition are associated with fertility level. Heavily Roman
Catholic provinces tend to have the highest
fertility, while the prevalence of Islam reduces
fertility. The relationships of these indexes with
1m and Ig further clarify this pattern. Roman
Catholicism is associated with high marital
fertility and somewhat delayed marriage, while
the prevalence of Islam displays the opposite
associations - i.e., with early marriage and relatively low marital fertility.
The variables reflecting male marriage patterns naturally can be expected to relate to 1m
rather than Ig. Briefly, and not suprisingly,
early marriage (a high 1m ) is strongly associated
with the availability of males no matter how
indexed.
To summarize, associations with If often
PHILiPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
•
conceal quite different relationships with 1m
and/or Ig. Opposite associations with 1m and I g
in some cases lead to diminished relationships
with overall fertility (note the SES measures).
On the whole, associations are closer between
independent variables and 1m than between
these measures and Ig.
~
Multiple associations between groups of explanatory variables and the component fertility
measures are given in Table 4. 20 The variables
just examined are grouped into three types of
influences- demographic (availability of
males), economic (household characteristics),
and religious. In addition, a dummy variable
procedure (Suits 1957) allows us to examine
the explanatory power of regional membership
and dominant ethnic group with respect to the
dependent variables.
Both multiple regression and analysis of
variance are founded upon the general linear
model (Fennessey 1969), and dummy variable
regression is in fact analysis of variance in
another guise. Table 4 therefore shows, for each
regression equation, the F ratio and corresponding coefficient of multiple determination (If).
Equations can be assessed by examining either
-2
F ratios or R s.
Several tentative generalizations seem warranted. First, cultural milieu, indexed by religious and ethnic compositions, accounts for
marital fertility more effectively than for the
pattem of entry into marital union. Second,
economic level explains one-third the variation
in 1m but much less of the variation in Ig (male
information is naturally the best single predictor of 1m ) . Third, in general, 1m is better
predicted with these variables than is Ig.
Such were the major patterns of influence in
the post-war years before 1960. Are these
apparent flows of influence different in any
way from those prevailing during the interwar
period and before?
We noted at the outset Taeuber's general
findings from the 1939 parity information.
Direct comparisons between her results and the
present results are not possible, since our
marriage and fertility measures are not com-
l
1
1
•
I
•
I
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
parable, and in any case, Taeuber stopped with
a discussion of selected zero-order correlations.
We can make some general observations,
however, by shifting our discussion to two
dependent measures available from both the
1939 and 1960 censuses: the per cent of
females single at age 20-24, and the number of
CEB per ever-married woman aged 45-49.
These are rough measures of marriage pattern
and marital fertility, respectively. These dependent measures were regressed upon selected
sets of (1939) independent variables. The resulting coefficients of multiple determination
are shown in Table 5. For the present purpose
the relevant comparison is between years for
either of the dependent variables.
In the earlier period, just as in 1960, ethnic
status (cultural milieu) had a greater influence
on marital fertility than on the marriage pattern. But the influence of this variable, particularly upon marital fertility, has diminished over
175
time. The impact of availability of males on age
at marriage has likewise diminished, though it
wasnot great at either date.
The economic measures (house construction
and electric lighting) have their greatest effect
upon marriage age, but have significantly increased in importance over the period vis-a-vis
both dependent measures.
The central assertion put forth in the introduction to this paper is clearly supported by
these regressions: economic differentials are
becoming more important as older ethnic divisions (cultural milieu) become less important
as causal determinants of marriage and family
building.
Summary and Implications
Inferring individual-level patterns of causation from aggregate information is hazardous,
and the results of such an effort must always be
Table 5
•
Coefficients of multiple determination (R 2;1 for selected predictive equations:
1939 and 1960
Dependent
Independent variable
•
Ethnic status 2 [A]
Sex rati0 3 [B)
Per cent households of strong construction
[Cl]
Per cent households with electric
lighting
[C2]
Sex ratio and ethnic status [A + B)
Strong construction and ethnic
status [A +Cl]
Sex ratio and strong construction
[B +C l]
Sex ratio, strong construction, and
ethnic status [A+B+C l]
Sex ratio, electricity, and ethnic
status [A + B + C2 ]
Per cent single 20- 24
Variable
CEB per ever-married
woman 45-49
1939
1960
1939
1960
.05
.04
.03
.01
.09
.01
.03
.05
.04
.24
.07
.10
.08
.10
.25
.01
.01
.08
.09
.09
.06
.21
.19
.12
.12
.32
.05
.22
.15
.29
.1.7
.24
.18
.33
.09
.25
lCorrected for loss of degrees of freedom.
2Entered as five dummy variables: Cebuano, lloko, llonggo, Bikol, Other. The Tagalog category was omitted.
3Males 21-25/females 18-22
176
provisional. To be sure, marriage and childbearing are experiences lundergone by couples, not
provinces. Yet, the' present analysis of interprovincial variations has suggested a number of
broad generalizations, and some specific areas
for future research seem to be indicated.
We have seen evidence of some substantively
interesting areal differentials in If, 1m, and Ig.
The relatively low marital fertility of the Ilocos,
for example, stands out among the regional
levels; and, as we have seen, this region is
distinct in other respects as well. At the other
extreme, the Bicol provinces constitute the
only region in which high fertility is uniformly
enforced by patterns of behavior within marriage and with respect to its timing and prevalence for successive cohorts of women.
Speaking in general terms, our regression
results indicate that social-structural, demographic, and socioeconomic influences bear
strongly upon the marriage pattern, but that
they have much less influence upon patterns of
fertility within marriage. This finding contrasts
sharply with the historical pattern for European
nations, where economic change lowered marital fertility directly, only indirectly influenced
age at marriage, and did so by lowering it
(Coale 1965; 1969).
Yet, variations in marital fertility, as indexed
by Ig, do exist. We have seen that they relate
more closely to differences in cultural milieu
than to mode of economic organization. What
cultural factors conspire to create these variations?
Potential cultural influences are of several
types (Davis and Blake 1956), including amount
of abstinence and variations in coital frequency,
level of fecundity, and the prevalence of contraception. Broadly, however, these influences are,
from the individual's viewpoint, either voluntary or involuntary in nature (hence Henry's
distinction between "natural" and purposively
influenced fertility).
Expressed in terms of the Coale indexes and
the assumptions underlying them, we must seek
to know whether observed differences in Ig - as
for example that between llocos and Bicol - are
due to differences in natural fertility" or
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
are the result of differing levels of voluntary
control. Insufficient information is available
concerning the (largely physiological) determinants of natural fertility - typical patterns
of sexual behavior, norms respecting nursing,
the prevalence of sub-fecundity and sterility,
etc. But, the 1968 National Demographic
Survey provides extensive information on the
prevalence of rational control, or at least the
knowledge and attitudes prerequisite thereto.
In particular, these and other survey data of the
traditional KAP variety can be examined to see
whether variables intermediate between background conditions (economic level, literacy,
etc.) and fertility and marital behavior can be
identified. Thus, for example, although literacy
opens new sources of information respecting
fertility control, fertility 'cannot be affected
unless new knowledge or altered attitudes are
forthcoming.
The fundamental theoretical and practical
distinction between cultural background and
economic condition as determinants of marriage and fertility is perhaps portrayed most
vividly by contrasting the Ilocos pattern with
that of the Cagayan Valley. The former area is
the cultural hearth of the Ilocanos, whose
unique family patterns we have already described. The frontier-like Cagayan Valley exhibits nearly opposite patterns of marriage and
family bulding: marriage occurs relatively early,
and marital fertility is relatively high. Yet, its
population has for some time been comprised
heavily of ethnic Ilocanos,? 2 This seems a clear
example of economic condition (in this case,
agricultural opportunity) taking causal precedence over cultural milieu, since Ilocanos
who have left their dense home provinces and
are now living in the wide-open Cagayan area
apparently have not maintained the traditional
family patterns still exhibited by Ilocanos in
llocos. On the other hand, can we easily assume
that current patterns of family building among
llocanos in llocos are historically rooted; that
agricultural density accounts for the current
family-building patterns of Ilocanos in their
home region? Other regions historically have
been as dense for some time (see Vandemeer
r',
,
I
••
r
,
,
•
[1967] on Cebu), but exhibit different patterns
of marriage and procreation. The forces of
ethnicity and economic context are perhaps
hopelessly intertwined, though research into
historical patterns of marriage and fertility
within core ethnic areas could no doubt disentangle some of these influences.
Much better information is needed on the
fertility and marriage patterns of Filipino Muslims. The low Muslim fertility. noted here as
well as by Taeuber in the 1939 data may simply
reflect poor recall and high infant mortality. On
the other hand, detailed data on typical patterns of sexual activity, lactation, etc. may
suggest that the observed level is real, at least in
part.
In this analysis of geographic differentials we
have not considered the most common of areal
distinctions - that between urban and rural.
Urban-rural tabulations are not available for
1960 though they are being included in the
1970 Census tabulations. Our finding concerning the growing importance of economic as
distinct from cultural variables suggests that
urban-rural differentials will be of increasing
importance, as will differentials between rural
areas with divergent levels of economic advancement.
Appendix: An Evaluation ofFertilityEstimates
•
177
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
The fertility measures described in this paper
embody a number of choices - some important,
most not - respecting procedures utilized and
parameters selected. Consistency between independent estimates is our best single criterion
of accuracy.
Consistency of national-level estimates. Consider the general level of consistency between
fertility estimates on the national level when
they are based, respectively, upon the retrospective and age structure data. First, the birth
rate obtained by the Brass procedure (43.4)
compares favorably with the 45.6 births per
thousand suggested by Lorimer's (1966:235ff.)
age-specific fertility schedule. Both figures are
quite plausible. Lorimer's age-specific fertility
rates were estimated by assuming what seemed
a reasonable level of fertility (TFR = 6.8)
together with the age-specific pattern of childbearing indicated by vital statistics information
for 1959-1961. The Lorimer and Brass agespecific rates are as follows:
Age (years)
15 2025 30 35 40 45 -
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
TFR
Lorimer
Brass
.306
1.565
1.741
1.500
1.083
.545
.006
.437
1.298
1.642
1.402
.869
.354
.055
6.79
6.06
Our Brass estimates are some 12 per cent
lower than Lorimer's overall, with higher rates
only at the extreme ages. Our estimates are
considerably higher for women under 20, but
otherwise the two series are quite similar. While
the 12-per-cent difference in level may reflect
some measure of faulty recall, we do not see
adequate grounds for adjusting upwards the
Brass estimates for provinces. Region and province-level estimates in this paper are not
adjusted, and the reader should bear this in
mind.
The age-structure estimates of the birth rate
are 42.0 and 42.1 per thousand for reverse
survival of the O-to-4 and 5·to-9 populations,
respectively. These figures are somewhat below
the Brass and Lorimer estimates, apparently
because of census underenumeration of
children; the two age groups seem about equally at fault in this regard. 23
Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that
Lorimer's estimated birth rate is precisely correct, we are led to infer that (a) forgetting has
had a slight effect on the estimated 1960 birth
rate using parity infor.mation, while (b) underenumeration in the 1960 census has had a
marginally more serious effect on birth- rate
estimates using age structure.
There is a gratifying degree of consistency
among these estimates of the 1960 birth rate;
differences are small and in expected directions.
178
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
A good deal less consistency is evident on the
regional and provincial levels, where there is less
opportunity for census enumeration problems
to be cross-cancelling, where sampling fluctuations begin to obscure the information on
children ever born, and where migration differentials influence the results.
Consistency across provinces. Consistency
across regions is discussed in the body of the
paper. Table 6 presents intercorrelations among
the several fertility measures across 50 province
units. These associations yield another kind of
general indication of the comparability and
validity of the estimates under review. Correlations are large but not conspicuously so, suggesting that a fair quantity of "noise" is present
in the province-level estimates. The average
correlations within A (age structure) and B
(parity) type estimates are .80 and .89, respectively, while the average A - B correlation
is only 0.52.
Table 6
Intercorrelations among selected fertility measures: 50 province units, 1960
Fertility
indexf
A2
Al
.85
A2
A3
A4
81
82
A3
A4
81
82
83
.90
.72
.72
.89
.61
.65
.56
.56
.34
.39
.48
.48
.83
.56
.62
.51
.54
.99
.85
.71
ISee text for definitions.
One would have hoped for a greater degree
of agreement between age structure and retrospective estimates. Restricting consideration to
B2, A3, and A4, the three birth-rate estimates,
we have, as an experimental exercise, attempted
to improve the consistency between these
measures in several ways..
B2 is of course influenced by the age
structure of the population to which the
age-specific fertility rates are applied - other
factors constant, high fertility depresses birthrate estimates. As a consequence, standardiza-
tion for age (Philippines ~ 960 as standard)
raises the initial B2 - A3 and B2 - A4 correlations (both at 0.48) to 0.56 and 0.58, respectively.
One of the age-sex enumeration errors at
work is an upward shift across age five (Lorimer
1966 :275ff.). This particular source of error
can be nullified somewhat by utilizing as the
age-structure estimate of the birth rate the
average of A3 and A4. The correlation of this
averaged measure with the standardized B2 is
0.62.
The most important source of error in the
reverse-survival estimates is probably the assumption that there is no differential mortality
across provinces. In the absence of provincelevel life tables (or any viable mortality estimates for provinces) we have roughly estimated province-specific 5 Lo values on the
assumption that mortality differentials are
similar, in degree and direction, to differences
in province-level indexes of social and economic
condition. Even simple indexes of socioeconomic level are not easily available however.
Among those readily available for 1960 are
Tioleco's (1970) index of "physical development" and Pascual's (1971) simple index of
"modernization." The Tioleco index seems
most appropriate for the present purpose. This
composite index of physical development arrays provinces with respect to a diffuse notion
of "level of development," with which level of
mortality is no doubt correlated? 4
On the provisional assumption that provinces are Similarly arrayed on level of mortality and level of physical development, and on
the further assumption that provincial mortality levels in 1960 ranged between e:'s of 47.5
and 57.5 (the national estimate for 1960 is e~ =
52.5), interpolated values of 10 L, and 5 Lo
were obtalned.i " These province level survival
values were used to calculate, via reverse survival, the A3 and A4 rate estimates "adjusted"
for mortality. These estimates were then
averaged (analogous to averaging A3 and A4)
and this final estimate was correlated with the
standardized version of B2. The resulting correlation is 0.65.
••
(
•
•
r
,
,
,
•
I
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
Taken together, these simple adjustments
produce a notable improvement over the original B2-A3 and B2-A4 correlations of 0.48.
However, these manipulations - particularly
the attempt to account for mortality differentials - are quite arbitrary. They are presented
here only in a spirit of experimentation. At
most they suggest that the two types of
birth-rate estimate under discussion are largely
consistent and that further effort would remove
much of the remaining "noise." This further
experimentation, though well outside the scope
of the present research, would payoff richly by
generating age-structure estimates of fertility
applicable on the municipal level where parity
data and other alternate measures are entirely
absent.
Notes
This study was supported by a research grant (92-154)
to the University of the Philippines by the U.S. Agency
for International Development. The author received a
number of helpful comments from his colleagues at the
Population Institute, University of the Philippines,
where he is currently a visiting lecturer. Concurrently,
he is a research associate, Population Research Center.
University of Chicago. His manuscript was received
November 19, 1971.
1. The Census of 1948 was not fully tabulated
(alphabetically) beyond Cavite. The PSSH (now
BCSSH) rounds of May 1956, 1958, 1963, and 1968
do not allow province-level tabulation on most
characteristics.
2. The reader will wish to compare the present
results with her detailed findings, although some comparisons are made explicitly here.
3. This analysis relies upon parity tabulations from
a 0.5 per cent sample of households (a five per cent
sample of the households sampled in the census enumeration, made available to the Population Institute
by the Bureau of the Census and Statistics).
4. For the basic set of estimates (A3 and A4), a
single level of mortality was assumed for all provinces.
The life table utilized was U.N. Level 65 (e~ 52.5),
the 1960 table which Lorimer (1966) selected after
careful deliberation. 5LO and lOL5 are .864560 and
.823684, respectively. The inverses of these were
applied as reverse-survival factors. This level of mortality probably understates slightly the true force of
mortality for the Philippines over the period in question (prior to 1960).
=
179
5. The Philippine population expanded by 69.29
per cent over the 21.13 years between the censuses of
1939 and 1960. The apparent instantaneous rate of
growth for the period is therefore .025. Using
Pt/PO = e(.025) (21.13), Pt was calculated for mid
1952 and 1957.
6. The Brass technique involves the use of a polynomial function to translate cumulative CEB into
age-specific fertility rates. The procedure was first
applied to the 1960 parity data by Regudo (1965a.
1965b).
7. Ig, Coale argues, is an index of "natural fertility." The term, taken from Henry (1961), refers to a
level of fertility within marriage which is unaffected
by deliberate control behavior, that is. in which the
current fertility behavior of couples is unrelated to the
numbers of children they have already produced. In
his study of European provinces, for example, Coale is
interested to see how changes in If over time - from a
pre-transition stable level to a post-transition staole
level - are accounted for by changes in component
1m and Ig indexes.
8. Note that Ig reflects marital fertility only if all
births are legitimate. Four indexes, including a measure
of fertility outside marriage, are presented when illegitimacy is not negligible.
9. See Henry (1961). The rates (5x) for five-year
age groups from 15 to 50 are 1.500, 2.750, 2.510,
2.235, 2.030, 1.110, 0.305. The youngest age group is
shifted downward from the actual married Hutterite
level of 3.500 (see Coale 1965:205).
10. Similar information for 57 countries of the
Middle East, Asia and Europe are presented in Dixon
(1971). The Philippine pattern stands in contrast to
most other nations of the Middle East and Asia (25
countries). The SMAM for females, for example, is exceeded only by that of Hong Kong, Japan, and the
Ryukyu Islands.The Philippine proportion never marrying (female) is the highest among the 25 non-western
countries shown. See Dixon (1971: 217).
11. Sex ratios for Cagayan and Mindanao (Census
Regions III, IX, and X) are considerably higher than
the national ratios.
12. There has been a heavy outflow of young adults
(pascual 1965). The denominator of the rates is thus
diminished and fertility is exaggerated.
13. This statement stands even when we attempt a
correction for the effect of the out-movement of single
females on proportions single. The long-ter:.n out-flow
from Ilocos results in an understatement of per cents
singlein 1960 and thus in an overstatement of CEB per
woman. If therefore is slightly overstated, as is 1m,
while the impact upon Ig is indeterminate and probably
small, since If = 1m .I g. For example, when nationallevel per cents single are assumed for Ilocos, 1m is
..
l.-
180
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
reduced to 0.65 from 0.69, while Ig is increased to
0.63 from 0.60.
have claimed Iloko as mother tongue (see Keesing
1962:181).
It should be noted that the indexes assume negligible
illegitimacy, so that ~ wifi yields the number of legitimate births. Because the census proportions single
used here describe de [acto unions, the assumption is
not inappropriate.
o to 4 and 5 to 9 are available from Lorimer (1966).
14. There were 55 provinces in 1960, five more than
in 1939. So that measures could be obtained on both
dates, the 50 1939 units were utilized here, with the
1960 provinces regrouped as necessary.
15. Firm data for heavily Muslim areas are sorely
needed. Both the 1939 and 1960 censuses show low
Muslimfertility. That this reflects faulty responses and
not low fertility is a plausible but unverified assumption (see Taeuber 1960:100-04).
16. As symmetric measures, correlations offer us only information on degree of (linear) association between
variables. Though inferences respecting causation are
always tenuous, the comments offered here seem to this
writer justified as provisional statements. Fertility and
marriage information is for 1960, while our independent variables are all taken from information in the
1939 Census. Thus the necessary chronological condition for causal analysis is met.
23. Adjusted estimates of the 1960 populations
The reversesurvivalof these adjusted populations yields
rates which diverge but nicely bracket the 45.6 per
thousand figure. Child-woman ratios (AI and A2) 793 and 902 in unadjusted form - are 870 and 841,
respectively, when computed from Lorimer's adjusted
populations under age 10.
24. Tioleco's composite index of physical development combines 65 pieces of information describing 10
aspects of development - communications, housing,
health, etc. The index has a mean of 1.85 and a standard deviation of 2.5 I. Rizal, the highest scoring province, has an index of 22.1, while Batanes has the
lowest score, -5.I.
25. Tioleco's index was adjusted only by arbitrarily
setting maximum and minimum values at 5.00 and
-5.00, respectively.
References
Agarwala, S. N.
18. The beta weights here are simply ratios of standard deviations (G Im/G If and G Ig/GIf). See Duncan
(1966). The logsof 1m and Ig have approximately equal
standard deviations.
Brass, William
1960
The graduation of fertility distributions
by polynomial functions. Population
Studies 14(2): 148-62.
19. Norway is an excellent case in point (see Coale
1965: Table 3). Between 1870 and 1960 its If went
from 0.33 to 0.22; marital fertility declined from 0.76
to 0.32, while 1m increased from 0.40 to 0.66. Philippine levelsin 1960 are nearly equal to Norway's marital
fertility in 1870 and its marriage pattern in 1960.
Consequently, Philippine overall fertility in 1960 exceeds that of even pre-transition Norway by 46 per cent
(0.48 vs. 0.33).
Christ, Carl F.
1966
Econometric models and methods. New
York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
-2
.
R • see Christ (1966:509-510).
•
,
..
17. Substantively, this log transformation has the
desirable effect of deemphasizing the role of extreme
values in linear measures of association.
20. All R2s shown have been adjusted for number
of predictors (loss of degrees of freedom), and consequently are labeled R:2. Since N in this study is only
50, the unadjusted coefficients are generally much
greater than the figures given here. For the formula for
•
1962
Age at marriage in India. Bombay, Kitab
Mahal Private Ltd.
Coale, Ansley, J.
1965
Factors associated with the development
of low fertility: an historic summary.
Paper presented to the World Population
Conference. 1965.
1969
The decline of fertility in Europe from
the French revolution to world war II.
In Fertility and family planning: a world
view.S. J. Behrman, LeslieCorsa, Jr., and
Ronald Freedman, eds. Ann Arbor, University of MichiganPress.
21. Marital fertility varied considerably in Europe,
for example, with Ig's ranging from .65 to 1.00 even
before systematic decline occurred (Coale 1969).
Davis, Kingsleyand Judith Blake
1956
Social structure and fertility: an analytic
framework. Economic Development and
Cultural Change 4:211-35.
22. Ilocanos began colonizing the Cagayan Valley in
large numbers in the second half of the 19th century.
By 1903 one in five persons in the region was Ilocano.
Since 1948, two of every three persons in the region
Dixon, Ruth B.
1971
Explainingcross-cultural variations in age
at marriage and proportions never marrying. Population Studies 25(2):215-33.
•
.,
'
•
REGIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY BUILDING
Duncan, Otis Dudley
1966
Path analysis: sociological examples.
American Journal of Sociology 72(1): 116.
Fennessey, James
1968
The general linear model: a new perspective on some familiar topics. American
Journal of Sociology 74(1): 1-27.
Goode, William J.
1963
World revolution and family patterns.
New York, The Free Press.
Hajnal, John
1953
Age at marriage and proportions marrying. Population Studies 7:111-36.
1965
,,
,
•
Henry, L.
1961
European marriage patterns in perspective. In Population in history. D. V. Glass
and D. E. C. Everseley, eds. Chicago,
Aldine Publishing Company.
Some Data on Natural Fertility. Eugenics
Quarterly 8:81-91.
Keesing, Felix M.
1962
The ethnohistory of northern Luzon.
Stanford, Stanford University Press.
Lorimer, Frank W.
1966
Analysis and projections of the population of the Philippines. In First conference on population, 1965. Quezon
City, University of the Philippines Press.
Madigan, Francis C.
1965
Some recent vital rates and trends in the
Philippines: estimates and evaluation.
Demography 2:309-316.
181
Pascual, Elvira M.
1965
Population redistribution in the Philippines. University of the Philippines, Population Institute, Manila.
1971
Differential fertility in the Philippines.
Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation: Department of Sociology, University of Chicago.
Regudo, Adriana C.
1965a
Fertility patterns of ever-married women
in the Ilocos, Central Luzon, and Bicol
regions, 1960. Unpublished M. A. Thesis.
Statistical Center, University of the
Philippines.
1965b
The effect of age at marriage on the fertility of ever-married women in the Ilocos,
Central Luzon, and Bicol regions, 1960.
The Philippine Statistician 4:265-81.
Suits, Daniel B.
1957
The use of dummy variables in regression
equations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 52:548-51.
Taeuber, Irene B.
1960
The bases of a population problem: the
Philippines. Population Index 26:97114.
Tioleco, Alfonso
1970
A statistical technique for physical planning. Unpublished M. A. Thesis. Statistical Center, University of the Philippines.
Vandemeer, Canute
1967
Population patterns on the island of Cebu,
the Philippines: 1500 to 1900. Annals of
the Association of American Geographers
57:315-37.
SMITH, PETER C. 1971. Philippine regional and provincial differentials in marriage and family building: 1960.
Philippine Sociological Review 19(3-4):159-81.
PHILIPPINE SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
182
•
Percentage Distribution of Annual Household Income t Within Four Major
Regions of the Phi1ippines t as of MaYt 1968*
......
....tll
til
aJ
~
Annual Income
c:;
10<
......
c~
tll~
0
aJ C
tll
10<
S,2:i:
Less than 125O
499
I 250
999
I 500
1 t999
II tOOO
12 tOOO
2 t999
13 tOOO
3 t999
14 tOOO
4 t999
15 tOOO or more
Total
Median Income
.Cl,
aJ tll
1.52%
2.44%
4.05%
17.32%
26.10%
13.60%
10.05%
24.92%
~ ~
~'.J
6.67%
9.76%
21.88% .
30.14%
13.90%
7.27%
3.13%
7.25%
to
tll·
0
tll
C
c
~
0.
~
....tll ....0.
~
E-<ll.l
9.63%
15.98%
32.54%
23.93%
8.52%
4.70%
1.32%
3.88%
10.24%
14.86%
21.78%
30.87%
9.04%
4.42%.
1.43%
7.36%
7.69%
11.77%
23.12%
27.37%
12.63%
6.60%
2.95%
7.87%
~
:>..
tll
s
to
~
>
..
~
~
o..c:
:100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
:100.00%
100.00%
1
P2 t950
Pl t400
I 850
lIt 100
PI t250
~
Ratio of Observed Percentage ~ith a Given Income to that Expected if There
Were No Regional Differences in Income.*
•
......
....tll
~
Annual Income
10<
......
c~
<lI~
0
* Source:
til
<lI
:>..
<lI
to
10< tll
t.?~
~ ~
~'.J
>
.20
.21
.18
.63
2.07
2.06
3.41
3.17
.87
.83
.95
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.06
.92
1.25
1.36
1.41
.87
.67
.71
.45
.49
aJ C
Less than 1250
499
R 250
999
I 500
PltOOO 1 t999
12 tOOO
2 t999
13 tOOO
3 t999
14 tOOO
4 t999
15 tOOO or more
C
tll
aJ <lI
~
0
<lI
C
~
C
~
~
1.33
1.26
.94
1.13
.72
.67
.48
.94
MaYt 1968 National Demographic SurveYt Excludes households giving
no response to income question.
....
~