Filipinos rarely approve of martial law
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Column for Philippine Daily Inquirer
PDI 09-50, 12-17-09 [for publication on 12-19-2009]
Filipinos rarely approve of martial law
Mahar Mangahas
For the December 2009 Social Weather Survey, now in process, we were
able to include items on public opinion about the Maguindanao massacre
and President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo‟s decision to run for congress.
However, it was too late to take account of the December 4 martial law
proclamation in Maguindanao, and its December 12 lifting. These matters
will be on the agenda of the SWS survey in January. In the meantime, let us
review Filipino attitudes about the policy of declaring martial law,
according to the SWS archives.
Only once in the past did public opinion lean in favor of martial law.
The statement, “Given the Philippine situation at present, it would be
helpful to declare martial law,” (“Sa katayuan ng Pilipinas ngayon ay
makakatulong na magdeklara ng martial law.”) has been posed for
agreement or disagreement in six SWS national surveys from 1987 to 2003.
In the October/November 1987 survey, the first national poll done after the
bloody August 1987 military coup attempt, led by then-Col. and nowSenator Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan, a slight plurality of 40 percent agreed
with the statement. Those who disagreed were a large minority of 33
percent; others were neutral or else did not answer. The net agreement of
+6 (correctly rounded) indicates only a small balance in favor of martial law
at that time, early in the term of President Corazon Aquino.
On the other hand, in five subsequent surveys, opposition to martial law
always predominated, and was the outright majority in four instances. The
agreement, disagreement, and net agreement percentages in two polls during
the presidency of Fidel Ramos were: July 1993, 28 – 50 = -22; and April
1996. 20 – 66 = -46. The score in the single poll during the presidency of
Joseph Estrada was: June/July 2000, 18 - 61 = -43.
And here are the scores in the two polls done so far during the Arroyo
period: November 2001, 22 – 61 = - 40; and August/September 2003, 19 –
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Filipinos rarely approve of martial law
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56 = -37. The result of the 2003 survey shows that the July 2003 Oakwood
mutiny, led by then-Lt.SG/now-Senator Antonio Trillanes IV and others,
did not create so much public anxiety as to bend general opinions favorably
towards martial law.
The people sensed an intention to impose martial law under another
name, as early as four years ago. Mid-2005 was when the “Hello Garci”
scandal broke out. In June, President Arroyo admitted to a “lapse in
judgment” for speaking to an unnamed Comelec official. An attempt to
impeach the President failed for lack of votes in the lower house. Then, in
September, the President issued an order banning street demonstrations on
the basis of a policy called “calibrated pre-emptive response” (which was
eventually struck down as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, in 2006).
The above was the context for the finding of the November 27-December 4,
2005 SWS national survey of 58 percent in favor, and only 17 percent
opposed, to the resignation of President Arroyo. When the same survey
asked for opinions about the statement “The administration of Pres. Arroyo
is moving gradually towards a type of martial law, even though under
another name” (“Ang administrasyon ni Pang. Arroyo ay unti-unting
tumutungo sa tipong martial law, bagama‟t sa ibang pangalan”), it found 53
percent agreement, and only 24 percent disagreement.
The public trusted Erap Estrada more than Gloria Arroyo not to use
martial law in order to stay in office. On account of the juetenggate
revelations in late 2000, President Joseph „Erap‟ Estrada was impeached,
and his trial at the Senate began in December. The SWS national survey of
December 8-17, 2000 tested the statement “It is not in the character of
President Estrada to declare martial law just to stay in office” (“Wala sa
karakter ni Pangulong Estrada ang magdeklara ng martial law, para lang
manatili sa pwesto”), and found that a plurality of 43 percent agreed,
whereas 26 percent disagreed and the balanced were undecided, for a
significant net agreement of +17.
As with typical public opinion about Erap Estrada, the trust that he would
not misuse the martial law option was greater among the lower
socioeconomic classes. The agreement, disagreement and net-agreement
percentages (correctly rounded) on this item were 47 - 25 = a favorable +21
among the very poor Class E, 43 - 24 = an almost as favorable +19 among
M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 09-50 Dec 19 Filipinos rarely approve of martial law
Filipinos rarely approve of martial law
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the masa Class D, and 36 - 38 = a neutral -2 among the middle-to-upper
Class ABC.
More than seven years later, in March 28-31, 2008, an SWS national survey
applied exactly the same probe to the current President, i.e., “Wala sa
karakter ni Pangulong Arroyo ang magdeklara ng martial law, para lang
manatili sa pwesto.” This survey found national opinions evenly divided
into three parts, with 32 percent who agreed, 34 percent who disagreed, and
the balance either neutral or with no answer. This indicates less trust in
Pres. Arroyo in 2008, than in former Pres. Estrada in 2000, not to misuse
martial law for personal benefit.
In contrast to the pattern of public opinion about Estrada, the trust that
Gloria Arroyo would not misuse the martial law option was greater among
the higher socioeconomic classes. The agreement, disagreement and netagreement percentages on this item, in the case of Pres. Arroyo were 43 – 34
= a slightly favorable +9 among the middle-to-upper Class ABC, 34 – 33 =
a neutral +1 among the masa Class D, and 25 – 40 = an unfavorable -15
among the very poor Class E.
What are Filipino opinions about martial law at present? Until new survey
data become available, my guess is „no change‟.
Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
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M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 09-50 Dec 19 Filipinos rarely approve of martial law