Semiconductor Industry
Conference
October 15-17, 1984
Hotel Del Coronado
San Diego, California
P^l
o
2 r
->ia
o
1290 Ridder Park Drive
San Jose, California 95131
(408) 971-9000
Telex: 171973
3
o
m
o
0
u
<
<
Sales/Service offices:
CD
»—h
£:i: I Pui
13
UNITED K I N G D O M
DATAQUEST UK Limited
144/146 New Bond Street
London WIY 9FD
United Kingdom
(01) 409-1427
Telex: 266195
GERMANY
DATAQUEST GmbH
In der Schneithohl 17
D-6242 Kronberg 2
West Germany
(06173) 6921
Telex: 410939
FRANCE
DATAQUEST SARL
41, rue Ybry
92522 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex
France
(01) 758-1240
Tfelex: 630842
JAPAN
DATAQUEST Japan, Ltd.
Azabu Heights, Suite 711
1-5-10, Roppongi, Minato-ku
Tokyo 106, Japan
(03) 582-1441
Telex: J32768
The content of this report represents our interpretation and analysis of information generally available to the public or released by responsible individuals in the
subject companies, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. It does
not contain material provided to us in confidence by our clients.
This information is not furnished in connection with a sale or offer to sell
securities, or in connection with the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This
firm and its parent and/or their officers, stockholders, or members of their families
may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the securities mentioned
and may sell or buy such securities.
Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this
publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems, or transmitted, in any
form or by any means—mechanical, electronic, photocoptying, duplicating, microfilming, videotape, or otherwise—without the prior written permission of the publisher.
© 1984 Dataquest Incorporated
CD
r
•
CX^^:^#a Dataquest
1984 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 14-17, 1984
Hotel Del Coronado
San Diego, California
SUNDAY, October 14
3:00
7:00
8:00
9:30
p.m. to
p.m.
p.m. to
p.m.
Registration
Cocktails
Registration Area
Garden Patio
MONDAY, October 15
7:30 a.m.
7:30 a.m.
9:00 a.m.
9:30 a.m.
10:00 a.m.
10:30 a.m.
11:00 a.m.
11:30 a.m.
12:15 p.m.
1:45 p.m.
3:00 p.m.
6:00 p.m.
7:00 p.m.
8:30 p.m.
9:30 p.m.
Buffet Breakfast
Registration Continues
Welcome
Howard Z. Bogert
Vice President
Dataquest Incorporated
Semiconductor Outlook—Soft Landing or Hard
Frederick L. Zieber
Senior Vice President
Dataquest incorporated
The Expanding Universe of Semiconductors
Chuck Thompson
Vice President
Director, World Wide IVIarketing
l^otorola Semiconductor Sector
Coffee Break
1984: Before and Beyond
Jim Riley
Senior Vice President
Dataquest Incorporated
Bipolar Fights Back
John C. East
Vice President
Bipolar Division
Advanced l^icro Devices
Lunch
Financial Analyst's Session
(Presentations by Pru-Bache Staff and Industry Executives)
Mini-Conference Sessions
(Presentations by Dataquest StafO
CAD/CAM and ASICs
Memory
Equipment and Technotogy
Financial Analyst's Session
(Presentations by Pru-Bache Staff and Industry Executives)
Mini-Conference Sessions
(Presentations by Dataquest Staff)
Geographic li^nds
Microprocessors
User Workshop
Cocktails
Dinner
Dinner Speaker
Economic Outlook—What Will The Election's Impact Be?
A. Gary Shilling
President
A. Gary Shilling and Co., Inc.
Informal Discussion and Hosted Refreshments
Ballroom
Grand Hall Foyer
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Ballroom
Stuart Room
Regent Empress Room
Hanover Room
Windsor Complex
Stuart Room
Windsor Complex
Oxford Room
Regent Empress Room
Promenade Deck
Ballroom
Ballroom
Ballroom
(over)
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TUESDAY, October 16
7:45 a.m.
8:30 a.m.
9:00 a.m.
9:30 a.m.
10:00 a.m.
10:30 a.m.
11:00 a.m.
11:30 a.m.
12:15 p.m.
1:45 p.m.
2:15 p.m.
2:45 p.m.
3:15 p.m.
4:00 p.m.
6:00 p.m.
7:00 p.m.
9:00 p.m.
Buffet Breakfast
Pervasiveness—The Perspective Revisited
Charles H. Phipps
Vice President, Semiconductor Group
Manager, Market Development
Texas Instruments Incorporated
Systems Design At The Chip Level
Doug Ritchie
Vice President
Consumer Specific Products
National Semiconductor Corporation
Distribution, A New Era
John Abram
Executive Vice President
Arrow Electronics
Coffee Break
Servicing High-Performance Systems Designers
Roger Smullen
President and Chief Executive Officer
Applied Micro Circuits Corporation
Proliferation of Products and Systems in Japan
Jerry Crowley
President and Chief Executive Officer
Oki Semiconductor
ASICs Come of Age
Henri Jarrat
President and Chief Operating Officer
VLSI Technology
Lunch
Applications, The Fuel of Pervasiveness
Ken McKenzie
Associate Director, Semiconductor Group
Dataquest Incorporated
Highly Integrated Systems
Jon Cornell
Senior Vice President
and Sector Executive
Harris Semiconductor
Fast CMOS: Key to VLSI Pervasiveness
T. J. Rodgers
President
Cypress Semiconductor
Telecommunications Impact of Semiconductors
Marisa Bellisario
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer
Italtel Group
Industry Athletic Challenge
Once again Lane Mason of the SIS staff will host this
industry's annual running event. Sign-ups at the registration desk.
Cocktails
Dinner—Western Barbeque
Informal Discussion and Hosted Refreshments
Ballroom
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Baih lom
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
.Regent Empress Room
10 km Course
Garden Patio
Garden Patio
Garden Patio
continued on next pag
#
WEDNESDAY, October 17
7:45 a.m.
8:30 a.m.
9:00 a.m.
9:30 a.m.
10:00 a.m.
10:30 a.m.
11:00 a.m.
11:30 a.m.
12:00 noon
12:30 p.m.
Buffet Brealdast
Ideas and the Proliferation of Technology
Professor Everett M. Rogers
Institute for Communications
Stanford University
Judy Larsen, Ph.D.
President
Cognos Associates
Europe—A Technological Backwater?
Malcolm Penn
Director
Dataquest U.K. Ltd.
Semiconductor Equipment: Key to Pervasiveness
Bill Bottoms
President
Semiconductor Equipment Division
Varian Associates
Coffee Break
The Impact of Workstation Proliferation
Aryeh Finegold
President
Daisy Systems
Service, Software, and Silicon
Wilfred J. Corrigan
President and Chief Executive Officer
LSI Logic
LSI Growth: 1985-1995
Jack Carsten
Senior Vice President
and General Manager
Intel Corporation
Conference Conclusion
Buffet Luncheon
Ballroom
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Regent Empress Room
Ballroom
Semiconductor
Industry Service
Howard Z. Bogert
Mr. Bogert is a Vice President of DATAOUEST and Director of its Semiconductor
Industry Service. During his 23 years in electronics, he has held management
positions in market research, product planning, long-range planning, research and
development, and engineering. Most recently, he was a Divisional Vice President of
Engineering for Rockwell International. Earlier, he was Director of MOS
Development for Siliconix, and Manager of Design for AMI. Mr. Bogert holds a B.S.
degree In Electrical Engineering from Stanford University, an M.S. degree from the
University of Maryland, and an M.B.A. degree from the University of Santa Clara.
Kenneth V. McKenzie
Mr. McKenzie is Associate Director of DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. He is responsible for all research activities on semiconductors and related
publications. His other duties include internal data processing coordination for the
Semiconductor Industry Service and research into specific end-user markets.
During Mr, McKenzie's 14 years in the electronics industry, he has held
management positions in both design engineering and marketing. His most recent
position was as Marketing Manager at ZIlog, Inc. Prior to that, Mr. McKenzie was
Marketing Manager for 8-blt microprocessors at Intel Corporation.
James F. Riley
Mr. Riley is a Senior Vice President of DATAQUEST. Previously, he was President
of SIgnetics, a subsidiary of Corning Glass Works Incorporated, and of Intersil
Incorporated. He has 20 years of experience In the semiconductor Industry, the last
nine of which have been with DATAQUEST. Mr. Riley has considerable experience
In corporate planning, marketing, and general management. Mr. Riley received a
B;S. degree in Business Administration from Lehigh University, where he was
elected to Phi Beta Kappa.
Frederick L. Zieber
Mr. Zieber is a Senior Vice President of DATAQUEST, a member of Its Executive
Committee, and the Director of Its Semiconductor Group. The Semiconductor
Group Includes the Semiconductor Industry Service, the European Semiconductor
Industry Service, the Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service, and the
Semiconductor User Information Service Mr. Zieber has 12 years of experience in
market research and consulting to the semiconductor industry, and previously
worked in the semiconductor industry for nine years. He has experience in
processing, designing, manufacturing, and testing integrated circuits and discrete
devices. He holds two patents in semiconductor processing. Mr. Zieber has a B.S.
degree In Electrical Engineering from Stanford University and an M.B.A. degree
from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University.
Lane iVIason
Mr. Mason is a Senior Industry Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. He has been with DATAQUEST for five years, during which time he has
gained Increased responsibility for coverage of MOS memory markets and
company analyses, as well as general research support. Mr. Mason has worked for
Hughes Aircraft and Raychem Corporation. He has a B.S. degree in Physics from
the California Institute of Technology, and has done graduate work at U.C.L.A. in
the Department of Economics.
(over)
Robert E. IVIcGeary
Mr. McGeary is a Senior Industry Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor
Industry Service. Prior to joining DATAQUEST, he was Product Marketing Manager
at Applied Materials, Inc., where he managed the worldwide product marketing
activities for the Dry Etch Division and managed product support for European dry
etch business. Previously, he worked as Product Marketing Manager at GCA
Corporation/IC Systems Group, as Accelerator Physicist at Lawrence Berkeley
Laboratories, as a Nuclear Engineer at Mare Island Naval Shipyard, and as a
Reactor Operator at the University of Washington. He received B.S. degrees in
Physics and Mathematics from the University of Washington and an M.B.A. degree
from St. Mary's College.
Andy Prophet
Mr. Prophet is a Senior Industry Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. He is responsible for analyzing the application-specific market environment
and future technology trends. Prior to joining DATAQUEST, he was Market
Segment Manager for Synertek, Inc., and was responsible for major account
marketing strategies for its customers. Previously, Mr. Prophet was CAD Director,
Product Line Manager, and Circuit Design Manager at American Microsystems,
Inc., and Teledyne. He has a B.S.E.E. degree from Illinois Institute of Technology,
an M.S.E.E. degree from San Jose State University, and an M.B.A. degree from
the University of Santa Clara.
IVIel Thomsen
Mr. Thomsen is a Senior Industry Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor
Industry Service. He is responsible for analyzing the market environment and future
technology trends for microprocessors, microperipherals, and microcontrollers. Prior
to joining DATAQUEST, he was Product Marketing Manager for Aehr Test Systems
and was responsible for marketing dynamic burn-in systems used for reliability
testing of digital integrated circuits. Mr. Thomsen has also held positions as a
Product Marketing Manager and as Field Applications Engineer at Zilog, Inc., as
Senior Design Engineer at Heathkit, and as Design Engineer at Magnavox, Inc.,
and at Sylvania Systems Division. He has a B.S.E.E. degree from the University of
Michigan and an M.S.E.E. degree from Purdue University.
Gall Kelton-Fogg
Ms. Kelton-Fogg is an Industry Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. Her area of responsibility is the end-use segmentation of semiconductor
consumption, including application, geographical, and distribution analysis.
Ms. Kelton-Fogg has worked in technology assessment, market research, and
consulting for five years. Prior to joining DATAQUEST, she was with SRI
International and the University of California, San Francisco. She has B.S. and M.S.
degrees in Scientific Journalism from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Thomas E. Holland
Mr. Holland is a Research Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. For the past three years, Mr. Holland has been active in research in the
linear, discrete, and optoelectronic semiconductor markets. Prior to joining
DATAQUEST, he was Director of Research at Technical Operations (West), where
he directed company- and DOD-sponsored research and development. He also
served as a consultant to the Director of Defense Research and Engineering on
classified DOD programs. As a staff physicist at the Los Alamos Scientific
Laboratory, he conducted basic research in detonation and shock phenomenology.
He received B.S. and M.S. degrees in Mathematics and Physics from the University
of Alabama.
Barbara Van
Ms. Van is a Research Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry Service.
She is responsible for computer data bases in semiconductor consumption, market
share analysis, and company financial analysis. Prior to joining DATAQUEST, she
worked in a research capacity for a marketing research firm. Ms. Van has a B.A.
degree in Commerce from the University of Santa Clara.
Arden DeVincenzi
Ms. DeVincenzi is a Research Analyst for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. Her responsibilities include research and analysis of the semiconductor
industry with respect to equipment and materials. Prior to joining DATAQUEST, she
worked in a computer systems marketing group where she maintained a
nationwide distribution network, developed and coordinated marketing programs,
and provided technical assistance on IBM, NCR, and Honeywell systems
Ms. DeVincenzi received a B.S. degree in Marketing and Finance from California
Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
Katy Guill
Ms. Guill is a Research Associate with the Semiconductor Group. While at
DATAQUEST, she has worked on projects including worldwide semiconductor
forecasts, economic models, and development of computer data bases. Currently,
she assists Mr. Mason in the memory market area and provides general research
support, Ms. Guill received a B.S. degree in Business Administration from California
Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.
Janet M. Rey
Ms. Rey is a Research Associate for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. She assists in researching microprocessors, microperipherals, and
microcontrollers. She has worked for Intel Corporation and Atari, Incorporated.
Ms Rey received a B.S. degree in Business Administration from San Jose State
University.
Anthea C. Stratigos
Ms. Stratigos is a Research Associate for DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry
Service. Before joining DATAQUEST, she was an Information Developer for IBM
Corporation, where she documented and supported software development and
products for IBM's mainframe systems Ms Stratigo has a B.S. degree in
Communication from Stanford University
^wm
Dataquest
1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131
(408) 971-9000
Telex: 171973
(:::a Dataquest
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
EVALUATION QUESTIONNAIRE
San Diego, California
October 15-17, 1984
Thank you for attending our Semiconductor Industry Conference. Would you please assist us in planning our
next conference by completing and returning this questionnaire?
1. Please rate each presentation on a scale of 1 to 10 (where 10 is highest in terms of your approval):
CONTENT
(1 to 10)
DELIVERY
(1 to 10)
COMMENTS
(Use reverse side if necessary)
Zleber, Industry Outlook
Thompson, Expanding Universe
Riley, Before and Beyond
East, Bipolar
Ptiipps, Pervasiveness Perspective
Ritchie, Systems Chip Design
Abram, A New Era
Smullen, Servicing Systems
Crowley, Proliferation in Japan
Jarrat, ASICs Come of Age
McKenzie, Applications
Cornell, Integrated Systems
Rodgers, Fast CMOS
BellisarIo, Telecommunications
Rogers and Larsen, Ideas
Penn, European Backwater
Bottoms, Equipment Pervasiveness
Finegold, Workstation Impact
Corrigan, Service and Silicon
Carsten, LSI Growth
2. Mini-conference Evaluation. Please rate the meetings you attended on a scale of 1 to 10 (where 10 is
highest in terms of your approval):
CONTENT
(1 to 10)
DELIVERY
(1 to 10)
COMMENTS
(Use reverse side if necessary)
CAD/CAM and ASIC
Equipment and Technology
Memory
Microprocessors
(over)
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
2. Mini-conference Evaluation (Continued).
CONTENT
DELIVERY
COMMENTS
Geographic Trends
User Worl<shop
Financial
—
3. Would you like more mini-conferences at next year's SIS Conference?
Yes
No
4. At our next industry conference, would you prefer more or less of the following types of speakers?
MORE
LESS
DATAOUEST Speakers
Speakers from Large Semiconductor Companies
Speakers from Small Semiconductor Companies
Speakers from Semiconductor Users
Speakers from Semiconductor Equipment and
Materials Suppliers
Speakers from Distributors
Speakers from the Financial Community
5. Please suggest other types of speakers you might like to hear.
6. How would you rate the conference facilities (1 to 10)?
Location
Guest Rooms
Meals
Meeting Rooms
Recreational Facilities
7. Topics that would be of interest to you for the next Semiconductor conference:
8. Comments:
9. Your primary interest in the semiconductor industry is as a:
Service Vendor
User
Manufacturer
Financial Analyst
Other
(Please Specify)
Name and Company (optional)
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15 through 17, 1984
San Diego, California
List of Attendees
Taizo Abe
Shinko Electric Industries Company,
Ltd.
John Abram
Arrow Electronics
Irv Abzug
Harriet Abzug
IBM Corporation
Jet Advani
IBM Corporation
Edgar Anderson
Messerschmitt-Boelkow-Blohm GmbH
Shelley Anderson
Bank of the West
Giuseppe Anerdi
Fiat Semelco
Alex Au
Vitelic Corporation
Erick Ayers
Motorola
Willi Bacher
Dimos AG
Bob Ball
SAI-SEMI Specialists
Juan Bardina
Patricia Bardina
Atcor Corporation
lann Barron
INMOS Corporation
John Baskett
Panatech Semiconductor
Larry Baxter
Dexter Corporation-Hysol Division
Pete Bejarano
Trilogy Systems
Terry Bell
Micro Component Technology
Dr. Albert Belle Isle
Custom Silicon, Inc.
Marisa Bellisario
Italtel Telematica
Carol Bender
Dataquest Incorporated
Giarmi Bertolini
Italtel Telematica
Inc
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Max Bertolino-Zan
Ing. C. Olivetti & C . , S.p.A.
Prakash Bhalerao
Digital Equipment Corporation
Jacques Biais
Rhone-Poulenc
Robert Bickers
Atcor Corporation
John Birkner
Monolithic Memories
Anthony Blenk
Mutual of New York
Randy Block
Storm, Block & Associates
Abe Bluestone
Teradyne, Inc.
Betty Bluford
Dataquest
Howard Bogert
Carol Bogert
Dataquest Incorporated
Dmitry Bosky
Security Pacific Capital Corporation
G. William Bothwel1
Northern Telecom, Ltd
Patricia Bothwel1
Northern Telecom, Ltd
Timothy Bottoms
Bank of America
Wi 11 iam Bottoms
Varian Associates
Thomas Bowman
Applied Materials. Inc.
Ken Brabitz
Digital Equipment Corporation
Del Brand
Julie Brand
ITT Semiconductors
Kathy Braun
Western Digital Corporation
Holger Bree
Messerschmi tt-Boelkow-Blohm GmbH
Alan Brigish
Videolog
George Bristol
Prudential-Bache Securities
Donald Brooks
Teresa Brooks
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporation
Incorporated
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
C. "Kip" Brown
MOS Electronics Corporation (MOSEL)
Neill Brownstein
Bessemer Venture Partners
Stan Bruederle
Dataquest Incorporated
Joan Bui lock
Indium Corporation' of America
Robert Bullock
Indium Corporation of America
Ron Butler
Teradyne, Inc.
Josh Camba
Miriam Camba
Interlek, Inc.
Franco Carnevali
Telettra S.p A.
Jack Carsten
Intel Corporation
Wade Chang
ERSO/ITRI
Dennis Chant
Plessey Solid State
Sen Chen
Air Products <Sc Chemicals, Inc.
Adam Chowaniec
Commodore International, Ltd.
Jack Christy
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
Lee Chu
Mostek Corporation
Vic Chuidian
Joanne Chuidian
Interlek, Inc.
E. Dennis Col bourne
Northern Telecom Electronics, Ltd,
Peyton Cole
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporat ion
Tom Col 1 ins
Susan Col 1 ins
Tandem Computers, Inc.
Perry Constantine
LSI Logic Corporation
Tito Conti
Ing. C. Olivetti & C , S . p . A .
Jon Cornel 1
Mary Cornel 1
Harris Semiconductor
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Wilford Corrigan
Sigrun Corrigan
LSI Logic Corporation
Gary Cowles
Datapoint Corporation
Patricia Cox
Dataquest Incorporated
Wi 11iam Creamer
Bank of America
Herbert Criscito
RCA Corporation
Jerry Crowley
Nancie Crowley
Oki Semiconductor
Bill Cruizkshank
Donna Cruizkshank
Shinko Electric America
John Cummings
Electric Power Research Institute
Joseph Curry
Semiconductor Microelectronics
Internalional
A. C. D'Augustine
INMOS Corporation
Colman Daniel
Hami1ton/Avnet
Peter Danna
Lorraine Danna
Philip A. Hunt Chemical Corporation
Edward Day
Motorola, Inc.
Ardan DeVincenzi
Dataquest Incorporated
Michael Denick
IBM Corporal ion
Edward Desmond
IBM C o r p o r a t i o n
Mark Desrosiers
IBM Corporal ion
Bea Destin
Dataquest Incorporated
Daniel Devine
Temescal
Tom Dexel
Dataquest Incorporated
Stephen Dexter
Sears Investment Management Company
Dr. Vir Dhaka
Micromos
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Henry Dieselman
Perkin-Elmer Corporation
James Diller
June Diller
Sierra Semiconductor Corporation
John Dishman
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Hubert Dohman
Martha Dohman
Monsanto Electronic Material Company
Richard Douglas
Data General Corporaton
William Douglass
AMP, Inc.
Emi 1io Dragoni
Italtel Telematica
Phi 11ip Drayer
Enviroiimental
Richard Dressier
Mostek C o r p o r a t i o n
Kevin Driscol 1
Digital Equipment Corporation
Roger Dunbar
Arthur Young Sc Company
John East
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Robert Eckelmann
United States Department of Commerce
Ola Eckholm
LM Ericsson Corporation
Oliver Edwards
Motorola, Inc.
Jeffrey Ehr1ich
General Electric Company
Mahmoud Elhamamsy
AT&T Information Systems
Mark ElIsberry
Holt, Inc.
Richard Engli sh
Hitachi America, Ltd.
Aldo Enrici
AT&T Information Systems
Wi11lam Everden
Mullard. Ltd
J im Favier
Philip A
Beverly Feldman
Digital Equipment Corporation
Aryeh Finegold
Daisy Systems Corporation
Processing, Inc.
Hunt Chemical Corporation
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Doug Finke
Intel Corporation
Frank Florence
Dataquest Incorporated
Karen Foley
Dataquest Incorporated
Pete Fowler
INMOS Corporation
Linda Fredericks
Harris Semiconductor
Werner Freiesleben
Wacker Siltronic Corporation
Harvey Frye
Eaton Corporation
Brian FulImer
Datapoint Corporation
Orlando Gal legos
Zytrex Corporation
Penny Gal legos
Dataquest Incorporated
Antonio Garcia
Carolyn Garcia
Interlek, Inc.
David Garni tz
First National Bank of Boston
Tom Get linger
Prudential-Bache Securities
Jerry Gibbs
ZyMOS Corporation
Kenneth Giles
Bipolar Integrated Technology, Inc
Sara Giles
Bipolar Integrated Technology, Inc
Marshall Gingold
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Gene Goebel
Shipley Company, Inc
J im Goldey
Jeanne Goldey
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Bob Gonzalez
Motorola, Inc
Oliver Goold
GBL/Goold Electronics Corporation
Michael Graff
Harris Corporation
Milton Graimatt, III
Lex Service, Inc.
Alan Grebene
Microlinear Corporation
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Rupert Grimm
BA Investment Management Corporation
Wendy Grossmen
Monsanto Electronic Material Company
Katy Guill
Dataquest Incorporated
Paul Gupta
Inters!1, Inc.
Dave Guzeman
ZyMOS Corporation
Sardar Haddad
Mostek Corporation
Bernard Hadley
Stack GnbH
Erick Hagmann
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporation
Iza HalIberg
Dataquest Incorporated
Brendan Halpin
IDA Ireland
S. Ham
Tristar Semiconductor, Inc.
Donald Hamman
Teradyne, Inc.
Fred Haney
Barbara Haney
Investors in Industry
Mike Hankal
Dataquest Incorporated
J. Harris
Acrian, Inc.
Basil Harrison
IBM Corporation
Paul Hart
Hughes Aircraft Companv
Dan Hauer
S-MOS Systems, Inc.
John Hayn
McDonnell Douglas Microelectronics
John Height ley
INMOS Corporation
Joseph Hei tz
Telic-Alcatel
Tom Hendrickson
VHSIC Technology Corporation
Anna Henery
Investors in Industry
Carl Hildebrand
Gail Hildebrand
Perkin-Elmer Corporation
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Jay Hoag
Citibank
John Hodgson
VHSIC Technology Corporation
Bob Hoffman
IBiA Corporation
Adrian Hohn
LTX Corporation
Michael Hollabaugh
Debbie Hollabaugh
International Microelectronic Products
C h a r l e s Holt
Xerox Corporation
Jennifer Hughes
Ketchum Public Relations
Annmarie Ihle
IBM Corporal ion
Elizabeth Isaacs
Monsanto Electronic Material Company
John Jackson
Dataquest Incorporated
Richard Jacobs
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Richard Jacobs
Schweber Electronics, Inc.
Henri Jarrat
VLSI Teclmology, I n c .
Frank Jelenko
NEC Electronics USA, Inc.
Bob Jenkins
Carolee Jenkins
Motorola, Inc.
Carl Johnson
.Zilog, Inc.
Dwight Johnson
Eastman Kodak Company
Dave Jones
Interlek, Inc
Eric Jones
Bank of the West
Hisao Kanamaru
Hitachi, Ltd.
Bert Kehren
Mostek Corporation
Anthony Keig
Union Carbide Corporation
James Kelley
NEC Electronics USA. Inc.
Gail Kelton-Fogg
Dataquest Incorporated
Dafaquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
G. Mart Kernahan
Elaine Kernahan
Exiiios Semiconductor Corporation
Jerry Kiachian
Intersi1, Inc.
Gary Kibblewhite
LEX Corporation
Marshall Kidd
General Electric Trust Investment
Charles Kimball
Morgan Guaranty Trust
Marilyn Kissel
Signetics Corporation
Richard Klein
Prudentia1-Bache Securities
Richard Konrad
Synertek, Inc.
Abe Kosakowsky
SAI-SEMI Specialists
Andrew Koshar
Japan Electronics Bureau
C. V. Kovac
Rockwell International Corporation
Fran Krch
GTE Microcircuits
Dan Krupka
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Robert Kuhling
Calma Company
Hans Kurner
ESEC USA Inc.
Burt Lancaster
Air Products Sc Chemicals, Inc.
Terry Lancaster
DuPont Pension Fund
Dr. Judy Larsen
Cognos Associates
Richard Lawry
Christine Lawry
Atcor Corporation
George LeCrenn
Hoya Corporation, Electronics Division
Bob Lee
Dorma Lee
Aetna Life and Casualty
Sang Lee
Een Yearp Lee
Tristar Semiconductor, Inc.
Yong Lee
Hyxmdai Electronics America
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Mike Leibowitz
Quality Automation, Inc.
Robert Lenz
RCA Corporation
Kenneth Levy
Gloria Levy
KLA Instruments, Inc
Edward Linde
IBM Corporation
Bob Lipp
California Devices, Inc.
C. Fred Little
Betsy Little
Interconics
Jay Litus, J r .
Toshiba America, Inc.
Herschel Loomis
Naval Postgraduate School
Alan Louwerse
ZyMOS Corporation
Ron Love 1 and
Department of Trade and Industry
Paul Lovett
Anne Lovett
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
Toby Mack
National Electronic Distributors
Association
Azmat Maiik
Mitsubishi Electronics America, Inc
Joe Marcello
Betty Marcello
Interiek, Inc.
Dieter Marenbach
Western Digital Corporation
Bernard Marren
Western Microtechnology
Harry Marshal 1
J
Randy Marshal 1
Raytheon C o r p o r a t i o n
Jaime Martin
California Devices, Inc.
Jim Mart in
Diane Martin
Capital Research Company
Lane Mason
Dataquest Incorporated
Peter Masucci
Digital Equipment Corporation
H. Whitney & Company
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
John Matlock
S.E.H. .America
Gunter Matthai
Robert Bosch CtaibH
Paula Matthai
James McElwee
Security Pacific Capital Corporation
Robert McGeary
Dataquest Incorporated
Ken McKenzie
Debra McKenzie
Dataquest Incorporated
Cameron McPhail
Scottish Development Agency
D. A. Mehta
AT&T Bell Laboratories
Vern Meissner
Dolores Meissner
Wacker Siltronic Corporation
Patricia Me laugh
Bank of New York
John Mel gal vis
IBM Corporation
Arthur Midi 1i
Wells Electronics, Inc
Graham Mi 1ler
LTX Corporation
Norman Mi 1ler
Microlinear Corporation
Ralph Mi H e r
TRW, Inc.
Thomas Mino
AT&T Technologies, Inc.
Alicia Morehouse
Dataquest Incorporated
Rick Morrison
AT&T Technologies, Inc
Jack Murphy
Philip A
Satoshi Nagata
Mitsui High-Tek, Inc.
Thomas Nelson
Union Carbide Corporation
Ed Neubauer
NEC Electronics USA, Inc.
Jean Paul Neuville
Sagem
James Newcomb
Dataquest Incorporated
Hiuit Chemical Corporation
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Chr i s Newham
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporation
Jack N i I s s o n
Hewlett-Packard Company
Gene Norreit
Dataquest Incorporated
Mark Norwood
Intel Corporation
Bill O"Byrne
Honeywe11, Inc.
Dan 0'Nei11
Adler & Company
Mary Olsson
Dataquest Incorporated
Jack Ordway
Vitelic Corporation
Richard Orri11
IBM Corporation
Drew Osterman
International CMOS Technology
Jean Page
Dataquest Incorporated
Giovanni Pagliosa
Honeywell ISI, S.p.A.
Robert Palmer
Mostek Corporation
Dennis Parker
INMOS Corporation
Gerald Parker
IBM Corporation
Michael Pawlik
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporation
Malcolm Penn
Gill Penn
Dataquest Incorporated
Randall Peters
Texas Instruments, Inc.
James Peterson
Silicon Systems, Inc.
Richard Petritz
Grace Petritz
INMOS Corporation
Larry Phi 11ips
Lehman Management Company
Charles Phipps
Texas Instruments, Inc.
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Martin Plotkin
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporation
Kathryn Plumb
First Interstate Bank
James Poitras
General Electric Company
Tom Popek
Zilog, Inc.
Skip Powers
XTAR Electronics, Inc.
Nand Prasad
Interlek, Inc.
Walter Price
Rosenberg Capital Management
Andrew Procassini
Hyundai Electronics America
Timothy Propeck
Monolithic Memories
Andy Prophet
Dataquest Incorporated
Christine Ragoucy
Dieli
Gerald Ramsey
AT&T Technologies, Inc.
John Raszcewski
I ^ Corporation
Paul Reagan
GCA Corporation
N. Damodar Reddy
Modular Semiconductor, Inc.
Daniel Reeves
Eaton Corporation
Janet Rey
Dataquest Incorporated
Thomas Reynolds
Maryanne Reynolds
Sierra Semiconductor Corporation
Donald Richard
Atari Corporation
J im Riley
Dataquest Incorporated
Douglas Ritchie
National Semiconductor Corporation
George Robertson
Interlek, Inc.
Peter Roche
Data General C o r p o r a t o n
T. J Rodgers
Kathleen Rodgers
Cypress Semiconductor C o r p o r a t i o n
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Everett Rogers
Stanford University
Enzo Rognoni
Ing. C. Olivetti & C , S.p.A.
Geoff Rowett
LTX C o r p o r a t i o n
Dave Royse
IBM C o r p o r a t i o n
Robert Rusnack
IBM Corporation
Malcolm Russ
Wacker Siltronic Corporation
A. Graham Sadler
Northern Telecom Electronics, L t d .
Frank Semnann
Nancy Samnann
Dataquest Incorporated
Bi 11 Sams
Assisted Technology
Judy Sanchez
Bank of America
Richard Santi11i
RCA Corporation
Robert Santos
Midge Santos
Hewlett-Packard Company
Edwin Sauve'
First Interstate Bank
Dick Schaeffer
The Wall Street Journal
Tom Schauf
Dynamit Nobel Silicon, Inc.
John Scholes
Thorn-EMI
John Schumacher
J. C. Schumacher Company
Susan Scibetta
Dataquest Incorporated
E. Weston Seaman
Betsy Seaman
IBM Corporation
Frank Seestrora
Joaim Seestrom
Pitney Bowes, Inc.
Monte Seiters
Northern Telecom, Ltd.
Jerry Shames
Burroughs Corporation
John Shea
Flor Shea
LSI Logic Corporation
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Alan Shepherd
Ferranti Electronics Limited
Edith Shepherd
C. T. Shih
ERSO/ITRI
A. Gary Shilling
A. Gary Shilling and Company, Inc.
Sei Shohara
Xerox Corporation
Art Sidorsky
standard Microsystems Corporation
Robert Silco
Dorothy SiIco
VLSI Technology, Inc.
Thoma s S i ngman
Union Carbide Corporation
Brian Sjolseth
IBM Corporation
James Smith
Harris Corporation
Stratton Smith
Teradyne, Inc.
Roger Smullen
Applied Micro Circuits Corporation
Moo-Youl Sohn
Samsung Semiconductor &
Telecommiuiicat ions Company, Ltd.
Chaney Steinman
Ketchum Public Relations
John Stewart
GCA Corporation
Anthea Stratigos
Dataquest Incorporated
Rahul Sud
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation
Michael Swaluk
Lynn Swaluk
Pitney Bowes, Inc
Frank Swiatowiec
Trilogy Systems
Dave Sylvester
San Jose Mercury News
Kimio Takemori
Suwa Seiko Sha
Hiroo Taniguchi
Mitsubishi Electronics America. Inc
Sheridan Tatsuno
Dataquest Incorporated
Lloyd Taylor
Coiranodore I n t e r n a t i o n a l ,
Ltd.
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Wallace Tchon
Xicor, Inc.
James Tempesta
Bank of America
Chuck Thompson
Wanda Thompson
Motorola Semiconductor, Inc.
Mel Thornsen
Dataquest Incorporated
M
Smith Industries
W. Thurlow
Lou Tieber
Interlek, Inc
Jack TiIs
SAI-SEMI Specialists
Jim Townsend
Toshiba America,
Mario Tripputi
Italtel Telematica
Mentor Tseng
ERSO/ITRI
Lowel1 Turri ff
Cypress Semiconductor Corporation
Barbara Van
Dataquest Incorporated
Joe Van Poppelen
National Semiconductor Corporation
James Van Tassel
NCR Corporation
Robert Vosika
Micro Component Technology
W Scott Walker
Cassie Walker
Hughes Aircraft Company
Jan Waluk
Dominique Waluk
Megatest Corporation
James Wei
Sharp Electronics Corporation
Michael Weisberg
Prudentlal-Bache Securities
Jeff Wellington
First National Bank of Boston
Gunnar Wetlesen
Mary Ellen Wetlesen
W & W Enterprises
Rick Whittington
Prudential-Bache Securities
Col in Wiggins
Exxon Corporation
Inc.
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
William Wiley
First Interstate Bank
Ray WiIfinger
Mildred Wi Ifinger
IBM Corporation
Walter Willett
Union Carbide Corporation
Jack Wi Ison
Business Week
Otis Wolkins
GTE M i c r o c i r c u i t s
N. Wood
Lex Service, Inc.
J. Michael Worfolk
Lex Service, Inc.
John Wunner
Varian Corporation, Exitron Division
K. K. Yawata
NEC E l e c t r o n i c s USA, Inc.
Richard Yeung
Paula Yeiuig
Capital Research Company
Phil Young
Cynthia Young
The Hibernia Bank
Sam Yoxuig
Exel Microelectronics, Inc.
Jonathan Yu
Applied Microcircuits Corporation
Tony Yu
United Microelectronics Corporation
Aldo Zana
Italtel Telematica
Robert Zanotti
Aerospatlale
John Zeigler
General Electric Company
Steve Zelencik
Harriet Zelencik
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Frederick Zieber
Libbe Zieber
Dataquest Incorporated
Bi11 Zubenko
DuPont Pension Fund
John Zucker
Mitsubishi Electronics America, Inc.
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San
Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(:|K\ Dataquest
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15 through 17, 1984
San Diego, California
List of Attendees
A. Gary Shilling and Company, Inc.
A. Gary Shilling, President
AMP, Inc
William Douglass, New Business
Development
AT&T Bell Laboratories
John Dishman, Head, Technology Planning
Department
Marshall Gingold, Member of Technical
staff
Jim Goldey, Director
Jeanne Goldey
Richard Jacobs, Director, VLSI Design
Laboratory
Dan Krupka, Department Head
D. A. Mehta, Director, Silicon
Processing
AT&T Information Systems
Mahmoud Elhamamsy, District Manager
Aldo Enrici, Assistant Manager
AT&T Technologies, Inc
Thomas Mino, Manager, Engineering
Rick Morrison, Business Systems
Specialist
Gerald Ramsey, Material Management
Manager
Acrian, Inc.
J . Harris, President & Chief
Executive Officer
Adler & Company
Dau O'Neill, Associate
Advanced Micro Devices. Inc
John East, Vice President, Bipolar
Division
Steve Zelencik, Senior Vice President
Sales & Marketing
Harriet Zelencik
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Aerospatiale
Robert Zanotti
Aetna Life and Casualty
Bob Lee, Investment Officer
Donna Lee
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
Sen Chen, Marketing Manager
Burt Lancaster, Semiconductor Industry
Manager
Paul Lovett, Corporate Planner
Anne Lovett
Applied Materials, Inc
Thomas Bowman, Director, Strategic
Marketing
Applied Micro Circuits Corporation
Roger Smullen, President &c. Chief
Executive Officer
Jonathan Yu, Chief Operating Officer
Arrow Electronics
John Abram, Executive Vice President
Arthur Yoxmg & Company
Roger Dunbar, Partner
Assisted Technology
Bill Sams, Vice President, Marketing
& Sales
Atari Corporation
Donald Richard, Vice President
Atcor Corporation
Juan Bardina, Vice President
Patricia Bardina
Robert Bickers, President & Chief
Operating Officer
Richard Lawry, Director
Christine Lawry
BA Investment Management Corporation
Rupert GriitHn, Vice President
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Bank of
America
Timothy Bottoms, Group Vice President,
High Technology
William Creamer, Vice President, High
Technology
Judy Sanchez, Vice President, C o r p o r a t e
Banking
James Tempesta, Assistant Vice
President, High T e c h n o l o g y
Bank of New York
Patricia Melaugh, Investment Officer
Bank of
Shelley Anderson, Vice President
Eric Jones, Corporate Banking Officer
the West
Bessemer Venture Partners
Neill Brownstein, Partner
Bipolar Integrated Technology, Inc
Kenneth Giles, Vice President of
Finance
Sara Giles
Burroughs Corporation
Jerry Shames, General Manager, CEPO
Business Week
Jack Wi Ison
California Devices, Inc,
Bob Lipp, Chief Technical Officer
Jaime Martin. Strategic Marketing
Manager
Calma Company
Robert Kuhling, Director Marketing &
Market Development
Capital Research Company
Jim Martin, Senior Vice President
Diane Martin
Richard Yeung, Vice President
Paula Yeung
Citibank
Jay Hoag, Senior Research Officer
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Cognos Associates
Dr. Judy Larsen, President
Commodore International, Ltd.
Adam Chowaniec, Vice President,
Technology
Lloyd Taylor, Assistant Vice President
of Technology
Custom Silicon, Inc.
Dr. Albert Belle Isle, President
Cypress Semiconductor Corporation
T. J. Rodgers, President
Kathleen Rodgers
Lowell Turriff, Vice President
& Marketing
Sales
Daisy Systems Corporation
Aryeh Finegold, President
Data General Corporation
Richard Douglas, Product Manager
Peter Roche, Senior Marketing
Specialist
Datapoint Corporation
Gary Cowles, Senior Manager, Electronic
Corporate Contracts
Brian Fullmer, Director, Purchasing
Dataquest Incorporated
Carol Bender, Marketing Support
Representative
Betty Bluford, Administrative
Assistant
Howard Bogert, Vice President & .
Director, Semiconductor Industry
Service
Carol Bogert
Stan Bruederle, Vice President Sc
Director, Semiconductor User
Industry Service
Patricia Cox, Research Analyst
Ardan DeVincenzi, Research Analyst
Bea Destin, Secretary
Tom Dexel, Marketing Manager
Frank Florence, Marketing Manager
Karen Foley, Project Manager
Penny Gal legos. Research Librarian
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Incorporated
Katy Guill, Research Associate
Iza Hallberg. Research Analyst
Mike Hankal, A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r ,
Financial Services Program
John Jackson, Marketing Manager
Gail K e l t o n - F o g g , Industry Analyst
Lane Mason, Senior Industry Analyst
R o b e r t McGeary, S e n i o r Industry Analyst
Ken McKenzie, Associate D i r e c t o r
Debra McKenzie
Alicia Morehouse, Client Care
Coordinator
James Newcomb, Vice President &
Director, CAD/CAM Industry Service
Gene N o r r e t t , Vice President &
Director, Japanese Semiconductor
Industry Service
Mary Olsson, Research Analyst
Jean Page, Industry Analyst
Malcolm Penn, Vice President & Director
European Semiconductory Industry
Service
Gill Penn
Andy Prophet, Senior Industy Analyst
Janet Rey, Research Associate
Jim Riley, Senior Vice President,
Seminconductor Industry Service
Frank Sammann, Senior Vice President,
Sales
Nancy Sammann
Susan Scibetta, Consultant
Anthea Stratigos, Research Associate
Sheridan Tatsuno, Research Analyst
Mel Thomsen, Senior Industry Analyst
Barbara Van, Research Analyst
Frederick Zieber, Senior Vice
President, Semiconductor Group
Libbe Zieber
Department of Trade and Industry
Dr
Dexter Corporation—Hysol Division
Larry Baxter, International Marketing
Manager
Diel i
Christine Ragoucy
Ron Love 1 and
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Digital Equipment Corporation
Prakash Bhalerao, Custom Engineering
Group Manager
Ken Brabitz, Planning Manager, LSI
Group
Kevin Driscoll, Controller, Finance
Manager
Beverly Feldman, Product Manager
P e t e r Masucci, Marketing Manager
Dimos AG
Willi Bacher, President
DuPont Pension Fund
Terry Lancaster, Vice President
Bill Zubenko, Security Analyst
Dynami t Nobel Silicon, Inc
Tom Schauf, Marketing Manager
ERSO/ITRI
Wade Chang, Marketing Manager
C. T. Shih, Design Manager
Mentor Tseng, Marketing Planner
ESEC USA, Inc
Hans Kurner. Vice President
Eastman Kodak Company
Dwight Johnson, Program Manager,
Electronic Design
Eaton Corporation
Harvey Frye, Director, Sales
Administration & National Accounts
Daniel Reeves, District Sales Manager,
Southern California
Electric Power Research Institute
John Cunanings, Director, Renewable
Resource Systems Department
Environmental Processing, Inc
Phillip Drayer, President & Chief
Operating Officer
Exel Microelectronics, Inc.
Sam Young, Director of Marketing
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Exmos Semiconductor C o r p o r a t i o n
G. Mart Kernahan, Chairman of the
Board
Elaine Kernahan
Exxon Corporation
Colin Wiggins, Portfolio Manager
Fairchild Camera & Instrument
Corporation
Donald B r o o k s , Executive Vice President
Teresa Brooks
Peyton Cole, Strategic Communications
Manager, NAS
Erick Hagmann, Strategic Marketing
Manager
Chris Newham, Strategic Plarming
Manager, NAS
Michael Pawlik, Marketing Manager
Martin Plotkin, Marketing Director
Ferranti Electronics Limited
Alan Shepherd, Managing Director
Edith Shepherd
Fiat Semelco
Giuseppe Anerdi, Purchasing Manager
First Interstate Bank
Kathryn Plumb, Assistant Vice President
Edwin Sauve', Vice President
Wi11iam Wiley, Vice President and
Manager
First National Bank of Boston
David Garnitz, Loan Officer
Jeff Wellington, Loan Officer
GBL/Goold Electronics Corporation
Oliver Goold, President
GCA Corporation
Paul Reagan, Senior Vice President
John Stewart, Vice President,
Integrated Circuits Systems Group
GTE Microcircui ts
Fran Krch, Manager, Strategic Planning
Otis Wolkins, President
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
General Electric Company
Jeffrey Ehrlich, Manager, Product
Application Technology
James Poitras, Manager, Business
Development
John Zeigler, Contracting Agent
General
Marshall Kidd, Manager, Technical
Analysis
Electric Trust Investment
Hami1ton/Avnet
Colman Daniel, Vice President
Harris Corporation
Jon Cornell, Senior Vice President &
Sector Executive
Mary Cornel 1
Linda Fredericks, D i r e c t o r of Marketing
Communicat ions
Michael Graff, Vice President,
Marketing, Semiconductor Division
James Smith, Vice President
Hewlett-Packard Company
Jack Nilsson, Marketing Engineer
Robert Santos, Product Marketing
Manager
Midge Santos
Hitachi America, Ltd.
Richard English, S e n i o r Area Manager
Hi tachi, Ltd
H i s a o Kanamaru, Department Manager,
Marketing Sc Planning Department
Holt, Inc
Mark Ellsberry, Director of Marketing
Honeywell ISI, S p a .
Giovanni Pagliosa
Honejnurel 1 , I n c .
Bill O'Byrne, Commodity Manager
Hoya Corporation,
Electronics Division
George LeCreim, Marketing Manager
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Hughes Aircraft Company
Paul Hart, Manager, Custom LSI
Procurement
W. Scott Walker, Group Vice President
& Manager, Solid State- Products
Division
Cassie Walker
Hyundai Electronics America
Yong Lee, Vice President, General
Manager, Semiconductor Operations
Andrew Procassini, Vice President,
Market ing
IBM Corporation
Irv Abzug, Vice President & Director,
Corporate Component Procurement
Harriet Abzug
Jet Advani, Advisory Engineer
Michael Denick, Manager, New Products
Office
Edward Desmond, Manager, Industrial
Engineering Services
Mark Desrosiers, Staff Programmer
Basil Harrison, Advisory Engineer
Bob Hoffman, Senior Buyer
Annmarie Ihle, Buyer
Edward Linde, Senior Engineer
John Melgalvis, Industrial Engineer
Richard Orrill, Senior Engineer
Gerald Parker, Program Manager, Process
Technology
John Raszcewski, Advisory Engineer
Dave Royse, Analyst
Robert Rusnack, Advisory Enginee'E. Weston Seaman, Manager, New
Products Cost Engineering
Betsey Seaman
Brian Sjolseth, Advisor Plaimer
Ray Wilfinger, Prograun Manager
Mildred Wilfinger
IDA Ireland
Brendan Halpin, Regional Director
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
INMOS Corporation
larui Barron, Chief Strategic O f f i c e r
A. C. D'Augustine, Vice President,
Marketing
Pete Fowler, M a r k e t i n g Manager
John Heightley, Chief Operating Officer
Dennis Parker, Group Controller
Richard Petritz, Chairman
Grace Petritz
ITT Semiconductors
Del Brand, Director of Marketing &
Sales
Julie Brand
Indium Corporation of America
Robert Bullock, Senior Vice Presiden'
Joan Bui lock
Ing. C. 01ivetti & C., S.p.A.
Max Be r t o1i no-Zan
Tito Conti, Director of Quality,
Corporate Staff
Enzo Rognoni
Intel Corporation
Jack Carsten, Senior Vice President &
General Manager
Doug Finke, Product Marketing Engineer
Mark Norwood, Components, Strategic
staff Manager
Interconics
C. Fred Little, Market Development
Manager
Betsy Little
Interlek, I n c .
Josh Camba, Senior Vice President,
Finance
Miriam Ceunba
Vic Chuidian. President & Chief
Executive Officer
Joanne Chuidian
Antonio Garcia, Chairman of the Board
Carolyn Garcia
Dave Jones, Vice President, Test
International Division
Joe Marcello, Special Assistant to
Chairman for Corporate Development
Betty Marcello
Nand Prasad, Executive Vice President
George Robertson, Vice President, Sales
Lou Tieber, Vice President, Sales
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
International CMOS Technology
Drew Osterman, President
International Microelectronic
Products
Michael H o l l a b a u g h , Marketing Manager
Intersi1, Inc.
Paul Gupta, Vice President, O p e r a t i o n s
Jerry Kiachian, Vice President,
Applicat ions
Investors in Industry
Fred Haney, Principal
Barbara Haney
Anna Henery, Principal
Italtel Telematica
Marisa Bellisario, President
Gianni Bertolini, Director of Corporate
Procurement
Emilio Dragoni, Manager
Mario Tripputi, Manager
Aldo Zana, Director of External
Relations
J
John Schumacher, President
C. Schumacher Company
Debbie Hollabaugh
J. H. Whitney & Company
Harry Marshall, Partner
Japan Electronics Bureau
Andrew Koshar
KLA Instruments, Inc.
Kenneth Levy, President
Gloria Levy
Ketchum Public Relations
Jennifer Hughes
Chaney Steinman, Vice President &
D i r e c t o r of Research
LM Ericsson Corporation
Ola Eckholm, Chief Component Engineer
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A C . Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
LSI Logic Corporation
Perry Constantine, Vice President,
North America Marketing
Wilford Corrigan, President
Sigriui Corrigan
John Shea, Director, Military
Technology
Flor Shea
LTX Corporation
Adrian Hohn, Vice President
Graham Mi 1ler, President
Geoff Rowett, Vice President, European
Operat ions
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation
Rahul Sud, President & Chief
Executive Officer
Lehman Management Company
Larry Phillips, .Analyst
Lex Service, Inc.
Milton Grannatt, III, Vice President
Planning-Supplier Development
Gary Kibblewhite, Planning Manager
N. Wood
J. Michael Worfolk, Vice President,
Business Development
MOS Electronics Corporation (MOSEL)
C. "Kip" Broym, Director, Custom
Circui ts
McDonnell Douglas Microelectronics
John Hayn, Manager of Applications
Engineering
Megatest Corporation
Jan Waluk, Sales Manager, Major
Accounts
Dominique Waluk
Messerschmitt-Boelkow-Blohm GmbH
Edgar Anderson, Manager, Marketing Sc
Sales, Electronics Products
Holger Bree
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Micro Component Technology
Terry Bell, General Manager, Test
Systems Division
Robert Vosika, Vice President
Microlinear Corporation
Alan Grebene, President
Norman Miller, Executive Vice President
Micromos
Dr. Vir Dhaka, Chairman & Chief
Executive Officer
Mitsubishi Electric C o r p o r a t i o n
Jack Christy, Regional Sales Manager
Mitsubishi Electronics America, Inc
Azmat Malik, Product Marketing Manager
Hiroo Taniguchi, Executive Vice
President Sc General Manager
John Zucker, National Sales Director
Mitsui High-Tek, Inc
Satoshi Nagata, Director & Executive
Planner
Modular Semiconductor, Inc
N. Damodar Reddy, President
Monolithic Memories
John Birkner, Manager of PALs, Product
Planning Department
Timothy Propeck, Vice President,
Market ing
Monsanto Electronic Material Company
Hubert Dohman, Vict President, Quality
Assurance
Martha Dohman
Wendy Grossmen, Technical Analyst
Elizabeth Isaacs, Manager, Product
Educat ion
Morgan Guaranty Trust
Charles Kimball, Vice President
Investment Research Department
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Mostek Corporation
Lee Chu, Director, Industry Marketing
Sadar Haddad, Strategy Analyst
Bert Kehren, Director, Strategic
Planning
Robert Palmer, Executive Vice
President, Semiconductor Operations
Motorola Semiconductor, Inc
Chuck Thompson, Vice President &
Director, Worldwide Marketing
Wanda Thompson
Motorola, Inc,
Erick Ayers, Assistant Strategic Manager
Edward Day, Strategic Planning Manager
Oliver Edwards, Manager, Marketing
Planning
Bob Gonzalez, Japanese Analyst
Bob Jenkins, Vice President
Carolee Jenkins
Mullard, Ltd.
William Everden, Divisional Director,
Industrial Division
Mutual of New York
Anthony Blenk, Technology Analyst
NCR Corporation
James Van Tassel, Vice President
Microelectronics Division
NEC Electronics USA. Inc
Frank Jelenko, Vice President,
Marketing
James Kelley, Vice President,
Technology Center
Ed Neubauer, Vice President, Marketing
& Sales
K. K. Yawata, President
National Electronic Distributors
Associat ion
Toby Mack, Executive Vice President
National Semiconductor Corporation
Douglas Ritchie, Vice President,
Consumer Specific Products
Joe Van Poppelen, Vice President
Market ing
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Naval Postgraduate School
Herschel Loomis, Electrical Engineer
Northern Telecom Electronics, Ltd.
E. Dennis Colbourne, Assistant Vice
President, Semiconductor Operations
A. Graham Sadler, Vice President,
Semiconductor Operations
Northern Telecom, Ltd.
G. Wi1liam Bothwel1, Director,
Materials and Purchasing
Patricia Bothwel1
Monte Seifers, Director, Semiconductor
Sales
Oki Semiconductor
Jerry Crowley, President &c Chief
Executive Officer
Nancie Crowley
Panatech Semiconductor
John Baskett, President
Perkin-Elmer Corporation
Henry Dieselman, Manager, Plarming
Carl Hildebrand, Vice President,
Sales Service, Semiconductor
Equipment Group
Gail Hildebrand
Philip A. Hunt Chemical Corporation
Peter Danna, Vice President, New
Business
Lorraine Danna
Jim Favier, Vice President,
Microelectronics
Jack Murphy, Director of Sales
Pitney Bowes, Inc.
Frank Seestrom, Director, Programs
Joann Seestrom
Michael Swaluk, Manager, Electronic
Support
Lynn Swaluk
Plessey Solid State
Dennis Chant, President
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Prudential-Bache Securities
George Bristol, Managing Director
Tom Gettinger, Research Analyst
Richard Klein, Vice President
Michael Weisberg, Director of
Technology Research
Rick Whittington, Vice President
Quality A u t o m a t i o n ,
Mike Leibowitz, President
Inc.
RCA Corporation
Herbert Criscito, Vice President,
Marketing
Robert Lenz, Administrator, Sales
Analysis
Richard Santilli, Vice President.
Market Development
Raytheon Corporation
Randy Marshall, Director, International
Marketing
Rhone-Poulenc
Jacques Biais, Manager, Electronic
Materials Group
Robert Bosch GmbH
Gunter Matthai, Manager, Technology
Plarming
Paula Matthai
Rockwell International Corporation
C. V -Kovac, Vice President, Key
Accoiuits
Rosenberg Capital Management
Walter Price, Partner
S-MOS Systems, Inc.
Dan Hauer, President
S.E.H. America
John M a t l o c k ,
Technology
SAI-SEMI Specialists
Bob Ball, Vice President, Marketing
Abe Kosakowsky, Marketing Manager
Jack Tils, Semiconductor Marketing
Manager
Vice President,
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Sag em
Jean Paul Neuville
Samsung Semiconductor &
Telecommiuii cat ions Company, Ltd.
Moo-Youl Sohn, Planning Manager
San Jose Mercury News
Dave Sylvester, Business Writer
Schweber Electronics, Inc
Richard Jacobs, Director of Strategic
Plaiuiing
Scottish Development Agency
Cameron McPhai1, Development
Sears Investment Management Company
Stephen Dexter, Investment Analyst
Security Pacific Capital Corporation
Dmitry Bosky, Investment Officier
James McElwee, Vice President
Semiconductor Microelectronics
Internallonal
Joseph Curry, Consultant
Sharp Electronics Corporation
James Wei, National Marketing Manager
Shinko Electric America
Bill Cruizkshank, Executive Vice
President
Donna Cruizkshank
Shinko Electric Industries
Company, Ltd.
Taizo Abe, Director, Engineering
Department
Shipley Company, Inc
Gene Goebel, Director of Sales
M i c r o e l e c t r o n i c Products
Sierra Semiconductor Corporation
James Diller, President
June Diller
Thomas Reynolds, Vice President,
Marketing Sc Sales
Maryanne Reynolds
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Signetics Corporation
Marilyn Kissel, Senior Financial
Analyst
Silicon Systems, Inc.
James Peterson, Director of Marketing
Smith Industries
M. W. Thurlow
stack GmbH
Bernard Hadley, Managing Director
standard Microsystems C o r p o r a t i o n
Art Sidorsky, Executive Vice President
Stanford University
Everett Rogers, Professor-Institute for
Coranuni cat i ons
storm. Block <Sc Associates
Randy Block, General Partner
Suwa Seiko Sha
Kimio Takemori
Synertek, Inc
R i c h a r d Konrad, Vice President,
Marketing & Sales
Telic-Alcatel
Joseph Heitz, Engineer, Purchasing
Department
TRW. Inc
Ralph Miller, Vice President & General
Manager
Tandem Computers, Inc
Tom Collins, Development Engineering
Manager
Susan Col 1 ins
Telettra S.p.A
Franco Carnevali
Teme seal
Daniel Devine, Director of Marketing
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Teradyne, Inc.
Abe Bluestone, Product Manager
Ron Butler, Purchasing Manager
Donald Hamman, Controller
Stratton Smith, Director of Purchasing
Texas Instruments, Inc.
Randall Peters, Manager Strategic
Planning
Charles Phipps, Vice President,
Semiconductor Group
The Hihernia Bank
Phil Yoimg, Senior Vice President
Cynthia Young
The Wall Street Journal
Dick Schaeffer, Technology Editor
Thorn-EMl
John Scholes, Corporate Planning
Execut ive
Toshiba America, Inc
Jay Litus, Jr., Director of Marketing
Jim Townsend, Strategic Marketing
Manager
Trilogy Systems
Pete Bejarano, Director
Frank Swiatowiec, Director
Tristar Semiconductor, Inc
S. Ham, Vice President, Chief of Staff
Sang Lee, President
Een Yearp Lee
Union Carbide Corporation
Anthony Keig, Business Research Manager
Thomas Nelson, Manager, Electronics
AppIicat ions
Thomas Singman, Manager, Marketing
P1ann i ng
Walter Willett, Manager, On Site Sales
United Microelectronics Corporation
Tony Yu, Manager, U.S. Operations
United States Department of Commerce
Robert Eckelmann, Industry Analyst
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
United Technologies Corporation
Richard Dressier, Deputy Director,
Financial Planning & Analysis
VHSIC Technology Corporation
Tom Hendrickson, President
John Hodgson, Vice President
VLSI Technology, Inc
Henri Jarrat, President & Chief
Executive Officer
Robert Silco, Director, Corporate
Market ing
Dorothy SiIco
Varian Associates
William Bottoms, President
Varian Corporation,
Exitron Division
John Wunner, Marketing Manager
Videolog
Alan Brigish, President
Vitelic Corporation
Alex Au, President & Chief Executive
Off icer
Jack Ordway, Vice President, Marketing
& Sales
W & W Enterprises
Gunnar Wetlesen, President
Mary Ellen Wetlesen
Wacker Siltronic Corporation
Werner Freiesleben, President
Vern Meissner, Director of Marketing
Dolores Meissner
Malcolm Russ, Executive Vice President
Wells Electronics, Inc
Arthur Midili, President
Western Digital Corporation
Kathy Braun, Director, Storage
Management Marketing
Dieter Marenbach, Strategic Planner
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Western Microtechnology
Bernard Marren, President & Director
XTAR E l e c t r o n i c s , Inc
Skip P o w e r s , Chief Executive Officer
Xerox Corporation
Charles Holt, Vice President
Sei Shohara, Manager, Technical Staff
Xicor, Inc
Wallace Tchon, Vice President
strategic Planning
Zilog, Inc.
Carl Johnson, Manager, Technical
Marketing
Tom Popek, Senior Vice President &
General Manager, Components Division
ZyMOS Corporation
Jerry Gibbs, Marketing Director
Dave Guzeman, Vice President, Marketing
& Sales .
Alan Louwerse, Executive Vice President
Zytrex Corporation
Orlando Gal legos. Senior Director of
Market ing
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
:^T^Datac|iiest
CT^v^^'"*' E>ataquest
CLIENT
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY SERVICE
ADC Corporation
AMI-Austria
AT&T
AT&T Bell Laboratories
AT&T Conununications
AT&T Consumer Products
AT&T Resource Management
AT&T Technologies, Inc.
Accutest
Adler & Co.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Aerospatiale
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
American Microsystems, Inc.
Analog Devices BV
Ando Electric Co., Ltd.
Applied Intelligent Systems, Inc.
Applied Materials, inc.
Applied Micro Circuits Corporation
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
Arthur Andersen & Company
Arthur Young & Company
Asahi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.
Assisted Technology, Inc.
Atari, Incorporated
BMC Industries, Inc.
BSR International
BULL Transac
Bank of America
Banlc of California
Bank of the West
Banque Nationale de Paris
Borg Warner Chemicals
British Technology Group
Burroughs Corporation
CIN Industrial Finance Ltd.
CIT-Alcatel
CMOS Technology, Inc.
California Devices, Inc.
California First Bank
Calma Company
Canon, Inc.
Chase Manhattan Bank
Churchill international
Cii Honeywell Bull
Con^uter Sciences Corporation
Crocker Bank (The)
Custom Microelectronics Assembly, Inc.
D.G.S.I.
D.I.E.L.I.
DWS Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Wertpapiersparen
Daleco Research & Development, Inc.
Data General Corporation
Datapoint Corporation
Department of industry UK
Dexter Corporation/Hysol Division
Digital Equipment Corporation
DOW Chemical
Dynamit Nobel Silicon, Inc.
E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co., Inc.
BRSO
Eastunan Kodak Company
Eaton Corporation
Electric Power Research institute (EPRI)
Electronics Industry Association of Japan
Emerson Electric Co.
Environmental Processing
Ericsson Information Systems AB
Eurotechnique
Exel Microelectronics, inc.
Pairchild Camera & Instrument Co.
Fairchild Semiconducteur Europe S.A.
Fairchild Memory Test Systems
Fairchild Research
Fairchild Semiconductor
Fairchild Test Systems Group
Fairchild/Schlumberger
Ferranti Computer Systems, Ltd.
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
investors in industry
Investors in industry Group PLC
Itau Technologia S.A.
F i r s t I n t e r s t a t e Bank of California
J.
H. Whitney & Co.
F i r s t I n t e r s t a t e Bank of Oregon
Japan Electronics Bureau
First I n t e r s t a t e Capital Inc.
Jardine Flemings, Ltd.
F i r s t National Bank of Boston
Kaiser Electronics
Four-Phase Systems, Inc.
Kanematsu-Gosho (USA)
Fujitsu Microelectronics, Inc.
LSI Logic Corporation
LTX Corporation
Fujitsu Limited
La
Telephonie Industrtelle et
GCA Corporation
Commerciale
(Telic)
GTE Microcircuits
Landmarks Group (The)
GTE-Network Systems, Inc.
Lattice Semiconductors
GenRad, Inc.
Lex Service, inc.
General Electric Company
Linear Technology Corp.
General Electric Company, Ltd.
LOS Alamos National Laboratories
General Instrument Corporation
MBB GmbH
General Instruments International, Ltd.
Marconi Electronic Devices, Ltd.
General Motors Corporation
Matra Harris Semiconducteurs
Gold Star Semiconductor, Ltd.
Matrix Partners, L.P.
Gould/Biomation Inc.
Mayfield Fund
Harris Corporation
McDonnell Douglas Microelectronics
Hewlett-Packard Company
Megatest Corporation
Hitachi America, Ltd.
Merrill, Pickard, Anderson & Eyre
Hitachi Electronic Components Europe GmbH
Micro Component Technology, Inc.
Hitachi, Ltd.
Micro
Power Systems, Inc.
Holt, Inc.
Microelectronic
Marin
Honeywell, Inc.
Microelectronics
Technology Company
Hoya Corporation, Electronics Division
Micromos,
inc.
Hughes Aircraft Company
Ministerio de Industria Y Energia
IBM Compec
Mitsubishi Corporation
IBM Corporation
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
IBM France
Mitsubishi Electronics America, Inc.
IBM Japan, Ltd.
Miyazaki Oki Electric Industry Co., Ltd.
IBM Oesterreich
Modern Electrosystems, Inc.
IBM UK, Ltd.
Modular
Semiconductor, Inc.
ICG Electronics Enterprises
Monolithic
Memories, Inc.
IDA Ireland
Monsanto
Electric
Materials Company
ITT Advanced Technology Center
Mosley Management Corporation
ITT Europe
Mostek Corporation
ITT Intermetall GmbH
Mostek Japan K.K.
ITT Semiconductors
Motorola Semiconductor Europe
Idemitsu Petrochemical Co., Ltd.
Motorola, Inc.
Imperial Chemical Industry (ICI)
Indium Corporation of America
Mullard, Ltd.
Ing. C. Olivetti & C , S.p.A.
Murray Electronics PLC
Inmos Corporation
NCR Corporation
Inmos, Ltd.
NEC Corporation
Institutional Venture Partners
NEC Electronics USA, Inc.
Integrated Device Technology
Narumi China Corporation
Intel Corporation
National Bureau of Standards
Intel International Corp. S.A.
National Economic Development Office (NEIXD)
InterWest Partners
National Semiconductor Corporation
Interlek. Inc.
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.
International Microelectronic Products, Inc. Northern Telecom, Ltd.
Intersil, Inc.
Ferranti Electronics, Ltd.
Finalco
Oak Management Corporation
Oki Electric industry Co., Ltd.
Oki Semiconductor, Inc.
Oxcal Venture Corp.
Oxford Venture Corp.
Perkin-Elmer Corporation
Philip A. Hunt Chemical Corporation
Philips International BV
Pioneer-Standard Electronics, inc.
Pitney Bowes, Inc.
Plessey Semiconductors Ltd.
Plessey Solid.State
Prime Capital Management Co., Inc.
QCAD
Quality Automation
Quasel, Inc.
Qume Corporation
RCA Corporation
RTC la Radiotechnique-Compdec
Raytheon Data Systems
Rhone Poulenc,Siltec
Ricoh Systems, inc.
Robert Bosch GmbH
Rockwell International Corporation
S.A.M.E.S., Ltd.
S.E.H. America, Inc.
S A Matra
SAI-SEMI Specialists
SEEQ Technology, Inc.
SGS Semiconductor Corporation
SGS-ATES
STACK GmbH
STC Semiconductors Ltd.
Sagem
Scottish Development Agency
Security Pacific Capital Corp.
Sharp Electronics Corporation
Shin-Etsu Handotai Co., Ltd.
Shinko Electric Industries Co., Ltd.
Siemens AG
Siemens Corporation
Sierra Semiconductor Corp.
Signetics Corporation
Solid State Scientific, Inc.
Sony Corporation
Standard Microsystems Corporation
Stet Societa Finanziaria Telefonica S.p.A.
Supertex, Inc.
Suwa Seikosha Co., Ltd.
Synertek, Inc.
TRW Active Components
Tachibana Co., Ltd.
Takeda Riken, Ltd.
Takeda Systems, Inc.
Tandem Computers, Inc.
Targetronix
Tegal Corporation
Tektronix, inc.
Telefunkeh Electronic GmbH
Temescal
Teradyne, Inc.
Texas Instruments, Inc.
The Ericsson Corporation
Thomson CSP
Thomson EFCIS
Thorn-EMI
Toshiba America, Inc.
Toshiba Corporation
Toshiba Europe (I.E.) GmbH
Toshiba Semiconductor (USA), Inc.
Tristar Semiconductor, inc.
U.S. Departiment of Commerce
UTI Instruments Company
Union Bank
Union Carbide Corporation
Union Trust Company of Maryland
Union Venture Corporation
United Micro^electronics Corp.
United Technologies Corporation
Unitrode Corporation
VLSI Technology, Inc.
Varian Associates
Vitelic Corporation
Wacker Chemitronic GmbH
Wacker Siltronic Corporation
Weitek
Western Digital Corporation
Wyle Laboratories
XTAR Electronics, Inc.
Xerox Corporation
Xicor, Incorporated
Yamada Seisakusho Co., Ltd.
Zilog, Inc.
ZyMOS Corporation
Zytrex Corporation
06/28/84
Dataquest
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
SPEAKERS
Frederick L. Zieber
Senior Vice President
Dataquest Incorporated
Chuck Thompson
Vice President
Director, World Wide Mktg.
Motorola Semi Sector
Jim Riley
Senior Vice President
Dataquest Incorporated
John C. East
Vice President
Bipolar Division
Advanced Micro Devices
Charles H. Phipps
Vice President, Semiconductor Group
Manager, Market Development
Texas Instruments Incorporated
A. Gary Shilling
President
A. Gary Schilling & Co.
Doug Ritchie
Vice President
Consumer Specific Products
National Semiconductor Corp.
John Abram
Executive Vice President
Arrow Electronics
Roger Smullen
President and CEO
Applied Micro Circuits Corp.
Jerry Crowley
President and CEO
Oki Seiconductor
Henri Jarrat
President
Chief Operating Officer
VLSI Technology
Ken McKenzie
Associate Director
Semiconductor Group
Dataquest Incorporated
Jon Cornell
Senior Vice President
and Sector Executive
Harris Semiconductor
T. J. Rodgers
President
Cypress Semiconductor
Professor Everett M. Rogers
Institute for Communications
Stanford University
Marisa Bellisario
Managing Director, and
Chief Executive Officer
Italtel Group
Judy Larsen, Ph. D.
President
Cognos Associated
Malcolm Penn
Director
Dataquest U. K. Ltd.
Bill Bottoms
President
Semiconductor Equipment Division
Varian Associates
Aryeh Finegold
President
Daisy Systems
Wilfred J. Corrigan
President and CEO
LSI Logic
Jack Carsten
Senior Vice President
and General Manager
Intel Corporation
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive /San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR OUTLOOK—SOFT LANDING OR HARD
Frederick L. Zieber
Senior Vice President and
Director of the Semiconductor Group
Dataquest Incorporated
Mr. Zieber is a Senior Vice President of DATAQUEST Incorporated, a member
of its Executive Committee, and the Director of its Semiconductor Group.
He has 13 years of experience in market research and consulting to the
semiconductor industry, and previously had 9 years of experience working
in the semiconductor industry. He has experience in integrated circuit
and discrete device processing, design, manufacture, and testing.
He
holds two patents in semiconductor processing.
Mr. Zieber has a B.S.
degree in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University, and an M.B.A.
degree from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford university.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SEMICONDUCTOR OUTLOOK
SOFT LANDING OR HARD
The last nine years it has fallen upon me to present the DATAQUEST
forecast of semiconductor demand. Our forecasting has not always been
perfect, (those who live by the crystal ball learn to eat ground glass
sooner or later), but our record has generally been excellent. I believe
this year is the most difficult situation I have faced. There has been
some dark clouds on the horizon that have moved perceptively closer.
Lets look at what's been happening recently. For the last two years
semiconductor output has increased tremendously.
This chart gives
semiconductor shipments into the United States, by quarter, for 1983 and
1984. Two years ago at this conference we forecast that demand would
pick up strongly by April 1983. That is exactly what happened. Since
then shipments have grown at a tremendous rate. Currently shipments are
nearly double the rate of the first quarter of 1983. This unprecedented
rate of growth over the last year and a half was spurred by the economy
and Other market factors. Demand was extremely strong.
More recently, order
rates have been declining.
With shipments
increasing, the book-to-bill ratio has been falling steadily and
inexorably all year long. Although this chart was made several weeks
ago, we expected the book-to-bill ratio for September to be less than
one. This is what's happened. For the last three months, shipments have
exceeded orders. Any of us who have been in the industry long enough
have seen this pattern before, usually as the prelude to a full-fledged,
extremely painful, industry recession. What is the outlook of the rest
Of 1984 in 1985?
Let's look at what is happening at the semiconductor users. Very
recently, over the past two or three months, there has been a rapid
inventory build up. This is nowhere near the magnitude of 1980 or 1974,
but excess inventory is excess inventory. Users of semiconductors have
seen a slower rate of increase in their own orders.
The euphoric
expectations of earlier in the year have come face to face with a less
buoyant economy and reality.
Most systems companies are facing the
future with lower expectations than they had several months earlier.
This affects their order rates for semiconductors. Semiconductor usage
rates are not as expected, the future usage rates are lower, and
increasing inventories mandate adjustment of order rates. Additionally,
there has been several disasters among systems companies. There has been
a tremendous increase in new companies in many market areas each with
high expectations of major market share.
It is inevitable that the
- 1 -
C, 1984 .Dataquest.Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A SubsIdIary or A.c: NIeTsen CoTnpany /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
attrition rate of companies will be high, and it will probably get
higher. Naturally, all this affects the availability of components.
Semiconductors suddenly are much more easily obtained.
Furthermore,
component
lead
times have been decreasing
rapidly.
Prices are
weakening. With this scenario, why order?
At the semiconductor manufacturer a related scenario is unfolding. There
has been a tremendous increase in capacity in the semiconductor industry
over the last several quarters. Much more than generally expected. In
the past, when we have come out of a period of excess capacity, increases
in semiconductor shipments have been extremely rapid for two quarters.
We have had quarter to quarter increases in double digits in excess of
ten percent, for six quarters. Clearly the semiconductor industry has
been doing something different this time around. We believe part of the
reason has been a major increase in the number of shifts operated at
wafer fabrication facilities. Facilities and equipment utilization is
higher than ever before.
At the
same
time, manufacturers are
experiencing level or declining bookings. Lead time for products have
been going down, and pressure on prices has been getting worse. This has
an all too familiar ring to it. But don't panic. We do not believe we
are entering a recession.
However, DATAQUEST believes that we have
entered a period of adjustment where the excesses of the recent past will
be brought into line.
This adjustment is a normal process. Usually, we see it when the U.S.
economy is entering a recession. This time, I think, we have a different
scenario: the adjustment, the excess, this process is occuring even
though the economy is not in a recession and real demand for
semiconductors, unit demand, is still growing. For those of you who
haven't been in the industry as long as I have, this has happened
before. It happened to a certain extent in 1978 and to a much greater
extent in 1967. It has happened for individual product lines from time
to time.
What is this process?
Basically it is the process whereby prices,
production, inventories, and demand are brought into line. It goes like
this; rapidly increasing semiconductor shipments lead to a build up in
semiconductor inventory at the systems level. This inventory can be
parts, in devices that are embedded in sytems, at distributors, or
elsewhere. When this happens, semiconductor users, particuliary if their
expectations have been lowered, adjust their semiconductor order rates
down. They do this to bring inventory down or to stop it from growing.
Thus semiconductor manufacturers see bookings decline.
But shipments
continue to rise (in the early stages), and semiconductor lead times come
back. The backlogs of the semiconductor manufacturers go down. The
inevitable price pressure increases, prices weaken. Now, when lead times
come back, the users don't have to order so far in advance. And being
rational people, noticing that prices are weakening, they tend to hold
orders off. Bookings drop even more. Sometimes, a lot more.
- 2 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
The
semiconductor
industry
reacts.
Increases
in
shipments
of
semiconductors begins to slow. In a recession, this can continue for
quite a while. But as long as the economy is stable and growing unit
demand for semiconductors will also grow. (In this case we are speaking
about real usage, not inventory building).
Therefore, eventually,
bookings will begin to rise. This is the process. Right now we are at
Number Five.
Critical to this process is the state of economy. Tonight we have a talk
by Gary Shilling on the economy. Not being an economist, I will defer to
him, but I do wish to make a few observations concerning DATAQUEST's
assumptions on the economy, because they affect our forecast. First of
all, we believe the economy is slowing. Recently the index of leading
indicators has been mixed, housing starts have been down, and retail
sales have been down, and these events generally presage a slow down of
the economy.
On the other hand, we don't believe a recession is
imminent. A recession is often the result of the tighting of the money
supply to cool an overheated economy. While we have a strong economy, we
don't have an overheated one at this time. Two of the things that are
generally in evidence prior to an economic downturn are a strong jump in
the prime rate and a decline in the real money supply. This chart shows
what happened in the twelve months prior to the last three recessions. I
think it is interesting to note that for each of these the increase in
consumer prices was as high or higher than the prime rate during that
period. In 1984 just the opposite is true. We have high interest rates
and relatively minor increases in consumer prices. Simply put; there is
no reason to dump the economy.
Therefore, we operate under the
assumptions that economic growth may slow but a recession will not occur.
But, we are faced with reality:
The process described earlier. A
book-to-bill under one, is a matter of concern. The book-to-bill ratio
can be much much lower. This chart gives the book-to-bill ratio for
Texas Instruments (simply because it was available) and for the SIA in
1980. Since the TI ratio is for the whole company, we estimated what the
semiconductor industry book-to-bill probably was in 1970 and 1974. For
three months they were around 0.5 or lower. Personally, I can remember
individual months when the book-to-bill ratio for individual companies
was as low as 0.2, other people can remember negative book-to-bills: that
is, when the cancellations of old orders exceeded new orders.
We believe that real demand is still growing. The economy is in a phase
with capital spending by industry increasing. Capital spending is the
prime driving force of semiconductor demand.
increasing industrial
production leads to industry increasing capacity. This is done, in part,
through the purchase and use of computers, workstations, industrial
automation, instrumentation, etc.
In combination with the increasing
pervasiveness of semiconductors in (electronic) capital equipment of all
types, the increasing capital expenditures of industry provides strong
and growing demand for semiconductors. Industry spending plans for next
year show big increases. DATAQUEST follows a large proportion of the
electronics industry. Business is good.
- 3 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
This is the good news: Although we are going through a process of
adjustment, we are doing so in a period of increasing semiconductor
demand.
We believe United States semiconductor consumption will be approximately
twelve and a half billion dollars in 1984. It will be nearly fifteen and
a half billion dollars in 1985. This is a level more than double
semiconductor consumption of two years ago. The increase in United
States semiconductor consumption this year is truly awesome an for
industry the size of the semiconductor industry. Given the momentum of a
fast start in 1983, consumption in 1984 is expected to be 49% above that
of last year. This is led by integrated circuits, with growth of over
50%, but there has been tremendous growth as well in the discrete and
optical electronic segments. In 1985 we expect growth to be considerably
slower. But 24% growth is a good year. Next year's growth sounds better
than it is in reality, because of the rate at which the industry will
enter the year. Nevertheless, our forecast is more optimistic than those
of several companies and the Semiconductor Industry Association. Where
we differ is primarily in our beliefs of the growth of real demand, and
in the effects of price attrition on the market in terms of dollars.
Prices are extremely difficult to forecast. They will go down over the
next year, but how much is much more difficult to assertain. We believe
that the publicity of falling prices of dynamic RAMs has led to a certain
amount of exageration with respect to all other semiconductor products,
where price attrition is expected to be considerably less. Additionally,
prices will not be given a downward push from a falling economy. It is
too easy to be too pessimistic.
Let's look at what's happened in terms of quartely changes in shipments
into the U.S. semiconductor market. If you look at where we are right
now we see the major quarter to quarter increases in shipments beginning
with the second quarter of 1983. The seasonality of the industry, with
weaker first and third quarters, is much in evidence here. There has
been some long term decline, but only of a minor amount, in the rate of
shipments. From now on, we expect a rapid drop in the quarter to quarter
increases in semiconductor shipments as we work through the process
described earlier. Once that is done, semiconductor consumption and
shipments in dollars will resume a more rapid rate of increase. We are
looking for a much less bouyant period for the industry in the next few
quarters with a rapidly improving situation in the second half of 1985.
I might point out, that this
makes no assumption on the economy for
1986. What happens then is very difficult to foretell. We expect U.S.
semiconductor consumption for the third quarter to be approximately 3.26
billion dollars, as shown on this chart. One year from now we expect it
to be 3.9 billion dollars or an increase of about 20 percent. That
growth pales only in comparison with what we have seen over the last year
and a half. Even during this period of adjustment the strong long term
demand for semiconductors will ease the difficulties.
- 4 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
I would like to speak a little bit about that long term outlook. More
will be covered in other speeches during this conference. Back at the
first conference we held, we had a chart on average price per function
for IC's and we have updated that yearly. This year, we updated the
chart itself to make it a little more visible. I might point out that on
the left is a logrhythmic scale. Prices have been dropping regularily at
30 to 35 percent a year ever since 1962. It is interesting to note that
there was a slowdown during the period of 1978 through 1980, but since
that time average prices have been going down at a fairly rapid pace.
This is the engine that ultimately feeds long term demand. Its not going
to stop. New markets and increased pervasiveness will come from the
greater cost/performance of semiconductors.
This is basic economic
elasticity. Why does the future look so bright?
Look at some comparisons between current
technology
and future
technology,
the very near term
future.
Virtually
all of the
semiconductor devices now produced are 3-micron minimum dimensions or
greater. We are just beginning to see new devices manufactured with
2-micron minimum dimensions. I might point out that the assumptions here
are realitively crude and they are here simply to make the comparison
between now and a few years in the future. Don't compare tihese with your
own costs, density, yields, and so on. We know wafer sizes are going to
increase.
To a certain extent, processing costs will increase with
size. We have assumed a modest increase in chip size and a fairly a
significant increase in yields. Yields do appear to be going up rapidly
throughout the industry. This is the first time I have seen yields rise
during a period of rapidly increasing shipments. We have made a gross
assumption of chip cost to final product cost and kept it the same.
Because of the higher density and larger chip size there can be over 3
1/2 times as many transistors, gates, bits, etc., on the chip. And this
means ultimately that the cost for a particular function is going to
decline precipitously. I find it interesting that this great engine of
cost reduction that we have in this industry will give us more than a
four to one improvement in the next few years.
The semiconductor
industry is a long way from being mature and, therefore, the market for
semiconductor is a long way from being mature. The industry is providing
systems engineers with some tremendous changes. Changes in t±e industry
are occuring faster now than they ever have. We are experiencing rapidly
increasing density, rapidly improving yield, automation of processing,
rapidly decreasing costs (per function), a tremendous variety of new
architectures for processors, many new types of products, and rapidly
improved performance - in terms of speed, power, and so on - for those
products. Never before has the engineer who applies semiconductors to
applications had so many new tools to improve their products. They are
facing rapid major increases in system capabilities in terms of cost
performance.
- 5 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
unfortunately this is increasing the applications lag for the industry.
Systems engineers are already far behind in taking advantage of the
products that are available to them today, and its apt to get worse in
the future. Last year we asked a simple question: If you use a 100
chips in a system, and each chip has a million transistors, what kind of
system do you make with 100 million transistors? Nobody knows I Yet that
is the microelectronic capability of the very immediate future.
We have some confidance that people will answer these questions. The
capabilities and costs will be translated into ever expanding markets for
electronics and semiconductors. We believe that by 1989 the worldwide
semiconductor industry will be 64 billion dollars, or more than twice the
size it is today. That translates into more than 19 percent compound
annual growth even though there is a modest recession built into those
assumptions.
This won't happen however unless you make it happen. Currently we are
entering a period where business is going to be more difficult than it
has been. Its time for all of us to roll up our sleeves and get the job
done. And its time for all of us to face reality. There is a strong
message here for everyone in this room. Semiconductor companies have to
get products out the door that their customers can easily apply. The
industry's ability to take advantage of its processing capability - in
terms of density, cost, speed, and so on - is abyssnal.
Execution
stinks. Engineers need to learn to complete projects with the speed that
they write resume's, count stock options, and change jobs. Venture
capitalists should understand that added value rests more in design and
application, not in yet another fab. Growth is there only if we make it
happen.
Let me conclude by stating again how we see the industry outlook.
Although demand is continuing to grow, we will experience several
difficult months as we go through a process of adjustment of inventories
and recent excesses.
After that more rapid growth is expected to
resume.
Long term, the high growth of the industry will continue.
Pervasiveness has just begun I
- 6 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
•
SEMICONDUCTOR OUTLOOK
Soft Landing or Hard
Frederick L. Zleber
Dataquest Incorporated
October 15, 1984
- 7 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
Billions of Dollars
$3.08
$2.51
S1.67
Q1
S1.97
$2.19
Q2
Q3
Q4
S3.26
S3.43
S2.70
Q1
Q2
1983
Q3
Q4
1984
BOOK/BILL RATIO
1984
1.6
1.4
-
1.2
-
1.0
0.8
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
- 8 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
mBmmmmamfimmi^
AT THE SEMICONDUCTORS USERS
mmnaammmammmmmmmmmmiimmmmmmtaiammmmemimmmmmm^meim
• RAPID RECENT INVENTORY BUILDUP
• SLOWER RATE OF INCREASE IN ORDERS
• LOWER EXPECTATIONS
• A FEW DISASTERS
• AVAILABILITY OF COMPONENTS
• DECREASING LEAD TIMES
AT THE SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURERS
IN iMH.uiwi«WBWMeaMJj.m»Lu
• RAPID INCREASE IN CAPACITY
• DECLINING BOOKINGS
• DECREASING LEAD TIMES
• PRICE PRESSURE
- 9 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
am
WHAT'S HAPPENING?
• WE HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF
ADJUSTMENT WHERE EXCESSES WILL BE
BROUGHT INTO LINE.
• EVEN THOUGH:
-THE ECONOMY IS NOT IN RECESSION
-REAL DEMAND IS GROWING
IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE!
THE PROCESS
1. INCREASING SHIPMENTS LEAD TO INVENTORY
BUILDUP.
2. USERS ADJUST ORDER RATES, INVENTORIES.
3. BOOKINGS DROP.
4. LEADTIMES, BACKLOGS. PRICES DECLINE.
6. BOOKINGS DROP MORE.
6. SHIPMENTS SLOW.
7. REAL UNIT DEMAND CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
8. BOOKINGS RISE.
- 10 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
BwwwwH—II I i m IWLI w n w w — w i i B i
THE ECONOMY
• LEADING INDICATORS - MIXED
• HOUSING STARTS
- DOWN
• RETAIL SALES
- DOWN
- 11 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE YEAR BEFORE A RECESSION
PRIME RATE
1970
6.6 TO
1974
8.5 %
CONSUMER
MONEY
PRICES
SUPPLY
6.3%
DOWN
5.8 TO S.e%
12.0%
DOWN
1980
11.6 T O 15.3%
15.8%
DOWN
1984
10.9 TO 12.8%
4.0%
UP
- 12 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
BOOK TO BILL RATIO
TI
SIA
Q4
1970
0.71
0.48 EST.
Q4
1974
0.68
0.45 EST.
Q3
1980
1.00
0.77 EST
mmimmmimmmwmmKirmmmiim
ESTIMATED
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
(Millions of Dollars)
DISCRETE DEVICES
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
TOTAL
1S83
1984
1885
$1,423
S 1,954
S 2.218
6.914
10.511
13.214
88,337
S 12.465
$15,432
- 13 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ESTIMATED CHANGE IN
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
Percent Change
bU
92.02
A$.3%
50
40
37.3^
30
25.7%
20
24.n
13.5?
10
DISCRETE
IC
TOTAL
DISCRETE
1983 to 1984
IC
TOTAL
1984 to 1985
MM
mmmmmmmmmKKtimamiKmmimmmmmimmmmmKmammmmmKmimmmmimmm
ESTIMATED QUARTERLY
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
(Millions of Dollars}
1983
DISCRETE DEVICES
INTEGRATED QRCUTTS
TOTAL
Q1
S 294
1,382
SI.676
Q2
$ 342
1,626
$1,968
Q3
S 371
1.816
$2,187
Q4
S 416
2.090
$2,506
1984
DISCRETE DEVICES
IhfTEGRATED CIRCUITS
TOTAL
Q1
$ 442
_2_^60
$2,702
02
$ 491
_2.586
$3,077
Q3
$ 501
2,760
$356?
Q4
$ 520
2.905
$"3,425
- 14 6 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ESTIMATED QUARTERLY CHANGE IN
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
Percent Change
20
17.4^
4.6%
1?)
13.9%
11.U
10
7.8?
b.iiZ
5
2.23!
A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1984
1883
ESTIMATED QUARTERLY
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
aauBuii^jagma
MBOBaOBBO
(Millions of Dollars)
1984
DISCRETE DEVICES
INTEGRATED QRCUITS
TOTAL
Q1
S 442
2,260
S2,702
02
$ 491
2,586
$3,077
Q3
S 501
2.760
$3,261
04
S 520
2,905
$3,425
1985
DISCRETE DEVICES
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
TOTAL
01
S 529
3,026
$3T555
02
$ 549
_3,195
$3774'4
03
$ 558
3,343
$3i9dl
04
$ 582
3,650
$4.'23"2
- 15 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ESTIMATED QUARTERLY CHANGE IN
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
Percent Change
15
10
13.92
8.5^
7 ft^
6.0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
1984
. «o.
Q.Va,
«? - i r
H.£.f,
•J.tiH.
Q4
Q1
"
Q2
Q3
Q4
1985
- 16 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
AVERAGE PRICE PER FUNCTION (ICs)
(Miilicents)
1,000
100
10
74
76
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
COST MODEL
CURRENT
FUTURE
3 MICRONS
2 MICRONS
WAFER SIZE
4 INCH
6 INCH
PROCESSING COST
S140
$220
CHP SIZE (MILS SQUARE}
200
250
YELD
30%
50 ?
CHP COST TO PRODUCT COST
4X
4X
MINIMUM DIMENSION
- 17 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
iwni«MEUiMiiui.«
COST MODEL
mKR«!H<*nnnmH*nnnHPnnRm!
CURRENT
FUTURE
GOOD DIE
100
200
DIE COST
$1.43
S1.10
FINISHED PRODUCT COST
S5.60
$4.40
60
211
9.3mc
2.1m<t
TRANSISTORS PER DE (OOO's)
COST PER TRANSISTOR
TECHNOLOGY HAS A LONG, LONG WAY TO GO
• DENSITY
• CMOS
• YIELD
• EPROM. EEPROM
• PROCESSING
• CAD
• COST
• ASIC'S
• ARCHITECTURE
• PERFORMANCE
NO SLOWDOWN
- 18 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WMWngnHHBKMPV
mmmmimamaf
APPLICATIONS LAG
mmmmmammKmmtm
uufMumiLihULHi
• WORSE THAN EVER.
• WHAT TO DO WITH 100 MILLION
TRANSISTORS?
WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
Billions of Dollars
70
63.9
60
49.9
50
37.2
40
30
41.1
32.6
26.6
20
10
1984
1985
1886
1987
1988
1989
- 19 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
• SHORT TERM
-TWO DIFFICULT QUARTERS
-IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER
• 1985--24.1% G R O W T H
• 1989--$63.9 BILLION
• 5 YEAR CAG--19.3%
- 20 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(::)aDataquest
Dataquest
THIS PRESENTATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT PUBLICATION TIME.
IF A COPY IS MADE AVAILABLE TO DATAQUEST,
WE WILL MAIL IT DIRECTLY TO YOU FOLLOWING THE CONFERENCE.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
THE EXPANDING UNIVERSE OF SEMICONDUCTORS
Charles E. Thompson
Senior Vice President
Director of World Marketing
Motorola Semiconductor Products Sector
Mr. Thompson is Senior Vice President and Director of World Marketing for
Motorola's Semiconductor Products Sector. Previously, he held positions
as Marketing Manager, Materiel Manager, and Manager, Information Systems,
in Motorola's Semiconductor Group. Mr. Thompson also spent 18 years at
General Electric Company in Product Planning and Marketing, as a
Corporate Consultant on computers, and in Computer Applications. He
received a B.S. degree in Mathematics from the University of Washington.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
THIS PRESENTATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT PUBLICATION TIME.
IF A COPY IS MADE AVAILABLE TO DATAQUEST,
WE WILL MAIL IT DIRECTLY TO YOU FOLLOWING THE CONFERENCE.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
.i^^:^ I ^:;:;a Dataquest
Dataquest
1984:
BEFORE AND BEYOND
James F. Riley
Senior Vice President
Dataquest Incorporated
Mr. Riley is a Senior Vice President of DATAQUEST. Previously, he was
President of Signetics and President of Intersil Incorporated. He has
20 years of experience in the semiconductor industry, the last nine of
which have been with DATAQUEST. Mr. Riley has considerable experience in
corporate planning, marketing, and general management. He received a
B.S. degree in Business Administration from Lehigh University, where he
was elected to Phi Beta Kappa.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1984
BEFORE AND BEYOND
The DATAQUEST Semiconductor Group has been following the
semiconductor industry for ten years. Today I want to look back 10 years
and forward 10 years. (Slide 1)
We present the challenge, "Where should semiconductor executives
focus their attention in the next ten years?" The benefits of answering
the questions this challenge raises lie in the process of answering them
as much as in the answers themselves. (Slide 2)
This speech has three parts:
•
Data for 1974 through 1994—A quantitative discussion of the
industry including our projections for 1994
•
A look at the semiconductor industry in 1994
•
A presentation of some of the questions you should be
considering, and some suggestions for formulating the answers.
You've probably already noticed that t±e questions are not
printed in the speech in your binder. We included some sheets
for your notes and comments. (Slide 3)
Let's look at the semiconductor market, from both a product and
geographic point of view. Then I will touch briefly on the developments
in technology, the industry's major suppliers, and the users. (Slide 4)
In 1974 the worldwide semiconductor industry totaled $5.4 billion
dollars. This year we estimate worldwide semiconductor consumption at
$25.8 billion, and by 1994, we project a worldwide semiconductor market
Of $175.5 billion.
1974 through 1983 showed a compound annual growth rate of
14.8 percent, and we project a compound annual growth rate of 22.6
percent for the next ten years. (Slide 5)
- 1 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Let's look now at ICs, discretes, and opto devices. In 1974 we were
still living in a discrete world. Fifty percent of all semiconductor
devices were discrete. This year we estimate that 79 percent of
semiconductor consumption will be ICs. By 1994 we will be living in an
almost totally integrated world, with ICs representing about 91 percent
of semiconductor consumption. Perhaps the most amazing part of this
forecast is that, although discretes go from 50 percent down to 4 percent
of the total, we still expect the discrete market to continue to grow in
absolute dollars at around 6 to 7 percent per year. (Slide 6)
If we turn to integrated circuits and look at the market by major
product group, you can see that microprocessors accounted for a mere
2 percent of the IC market in 1974. Logic, at 56 percent, made up more
than half the market. In 1984, logic accounts for only 30 percent of the
market, while the microprocessor share has increased to 14 percent. By
1994, microprocessors will account for 27 percent of the market.
Memory, which represented only 16 percent of the IC market in 1974,
is expected to grow steadily to 39 percent by 1994. Although we expect
linear devices to grow in absolute dollars, our estimates show that
linear devices will account for a progressively smaller percentage of the
total IC market although growing at 14 percent per year. (Slide 7)
Another important aspect of the IC market is the split between
standard and application-specific devices. As this chart shows, we
expect the ASIC market share to grow from 1 percent in 1974 to 27 percent
in 1994. These estimates include both merchant and captive production.
(Slide 8)
Let's turn now to consumption by geographic region. These three pie
charts clearly show the growth in the Rest of World segment and the
decline in European consumption as a percentage of the total. (Slide 9)
This is the picture when we look at semiconductor market share by
origin of manufacturer. (That means that if a U.S. company manufactures
the product, it is counted as U.S. market share even if it is not
actually manufactured in the United States.) As you can see, we
anticipate substantial growth in the Japanese market share and a decline
in the market share of European companies. Resolution of the 11% grey
area between the U.S. and Japan is still an open question. (Slide 10)
Let us now look at technology developments.
(Slide 11)
- 2O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
All DATAQUEST clients are familiar with this chart, although you've
never seen it projected out this far. If the trend we have been plotting
continues, the price per function will be down to 0.7 millicents by
1994. (Slide 12)
Of course, one of the main reasons that the price per function has
declined so rapidly, is that over the years we have crammed more and more
functions onto a single chip. This slide shows the increase in
complexity over the period in question. From 20 thousand transistors in
a 4K static RAM in 1974, we are projecting the possibility of a
16 megabit dynamic RAM by 1994 that will contain a staggering 17 million
transistors. (Slide 13)
This slide shows wafer starts by line width for the period 1974
through 1994. In 1974, the vast majority of wafer starts (95 percent)
were in geometries greater than 6 microns. This year we are seeing the
very beginning of sub-micron geometries, but devices with greater than
5-micron geometries still account for 34 percent of the wafer starts. By
1994, the majority of devices (40 percent) will be 1 to 2-micron-devices,
and sub-micron geometries will account for as much as 25 percent of the
market. (Slide 14)
As geometries get smaller, wafers get larger. The majority of
devices were produced on 3-inch wafers in 1974. This year we are seeing
the majority produced on 4-inch wafers although the trend to 5- and
6-inch wafers is gaining momentum. By 1994, we expect 6-inch wafers to
predominate, although there will still be substantial production in
4- and 5-inch wafers. (Slide 15)
We are at the threshold of important changes in packaging
technology. In 1974 surface-mount devices accounted for less than
1 percent of the merchant IC market. Today they account for about
5 percent of the merchant market; by 1994, we expect to see as many as 50
percent of all ICs shipped as surface-mount devices. (Slide 16)
Let's move now from the devices being supplied to the companies
supplying them. (Slide 17)
These were the top ten suppliers of ICs in 1974:
companies and two Japanese companies. (Slide 18)
eight U.S.
- 3 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
The final data are not in for 1984, but this was the picture in
1983. Five of the top ten were U.S. companies, four were Japanese, and
one was European. (Slide 19)
We don't usually make projections for individual companies, but one
prediction we can make:
The top ten companies in 1994 will be those companies that have
successfully addressed the questions that I will be presenting at the end
Of this speech. (Slide 20)
In 1974, we identified 86 merchant semiconductor manufacturers and
36 captives. Today there are more than 180 merchant suppliers and
60 captives. Both these numbers could double by 1994. The problem in
1994 will be defining merchant or captive—or even semiconductor
manufacturers. Captive suppliers are selling on the merchant market;
government-sponsored research agencies are making commercial commitments;
and array companies are proliferating with fabrication capability ranging
from 60 to 100 percent. (Slide 21)
This chart shows our
estimates of capital
expenditures
by
semiconductor manufacturers in Japan and the United States. As the chart
shows, Japanese expenditures consistently exceed U.S. expenditures as a
percentage of revenues. The chart also clearly demonstrates how much
capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue have increased since
1974. (Slide 22)
This slide shows part of the reason why those capital expenditures
have climbed so high. In 1974, the cost for starting a wafer fab was
$5 million. Today it is of the order of $100 million. By 1994, it could
easily be $200 million or more. (Slide 23)
This slide shows the equipment demand behind those costs. It also
clearly demonstrates the equipment technology trends over the years 1974
through 1994: from contact aligners to X-ray steppers, from wet to dry
chemistry, and from zero automation to full automation. (Slide 24)
Despite the high cost of entry, there seems to be no slowing in the
number of people willing to start new semiconductor companies. This
slide, which is taken from a recent DATAQUEST newsletter, shows the
number of semiconductor start-ups over time. 1983 was a record year with
16 start-ups in the United States, and although 1984 is not yet over, the
record has been broken—18. (Slide 25)
Let's turn now from the people who sell the devices to the people who
use them. (Slide 26)
- 4 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
The number of semiconductor users has grown dramatically over time.
These estimates show the number of semiconductor purchasing locations
growing from 25,000 in 1974 to 500,000 in 1994. Pervasiveness, which is
the theme of this conference, is the main reason for this explosive
growth. (Slide 27)
EDP has the largest end-use market share.
growing. (Slide 28)
Telecom is the fastest
This slide shows our estimates of the cumulative number of
semiconductor design workstations in use through 1994. 1984's number
will include some IBM PC-based engineering terminals. By 1994, however,
we expect to see a significant change in the use, performance, and
appearance of the PC as we view it today and therefore, our projections
for the 1994 number will include some of these low-cost systems.
(Slide 29)
I'd like to take a moment now to review some of the DATAQUEST
Semiconductor Group statistics.
Back in 1974, there were just two
people—Fred Zieber and me. Today we have 46 people worldwide, and that
doesn't count the support staff who are part of DATAQUEST's corporate
organization. If you project the same compound growth rate for the next
ten years, we will have 1,058 employees by 1994. Of course if we, like
you, concentrate our efforts on increasing yields, we may get that much
productivity without quite that many people.
We need a bigger staff these days because our client base has grown
to over 450. By 1994, it could be as high as 5,000 and we will still be
able to say that our clients manufacture more than 90 percent of the
semiconductors sold on the merchant market.
If you use the same kind of growth rates on our revenue estimates, we
will be looking for $60 million by 1994—please budget accordingly.
We started the Semiconductor Group in the
Today, we also have research offices in London
say where we will go next, but we will be
semiconductor industry wherever it goes. (Slide
heart of Silicon Valley.
and Japan. It's hard to
on hand to follow the
30)
I want to take all those statistics we've just covered and build a
picture of 1994. (Slide 31)
- 5 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1994—The Market
(Slide 32)
10 Tiroes Larger
ASIC Impact
U.S./Japan Struggle
Subsidized ROW Entry
Super Niches
New Applications
Market Driven
Blurring of National Boundaries
1994—Manufacturing
(Slide 33)
Mixed Bipolar/MOS
High Technology/Low Differentation
$0.5 billion Sales from Standard Fab—going to $1 billion
Wafer Subcontracting
Full Automation
7 days/week, 24 hours/day
1 Week Turnaround
New Packaging Technology
1994—The Users
(Slide 34)
New Companies/New Markets (10 PC markets will emerge)
New Countries Will Emerge as Users
South Africa)
(e.g., Israel, Australia,
All Survivors Will Design Their Own ASICs—Key to Survival
- 6 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
"On-line" to Multiple ASIC Vendors
Design Technology Available Multi-nationally
Hardware like Software
Less Economy o£ Scale (Cheap ASICs open equipment markets to all)
Grow by a Factor o£ 3
Uses Of Semiconductors in 1994
(Slide 35)
Neither DATAQUEST or anybody else has ever been able to invent enough
applications to justify the markets that eventually will occur. There
are sure to be additions to this list.
Some Ideas:
•
Voice I/O for Computers
•
Dedicated Computers
- weather forecasting
- geological survey
- logic and circuit simulation
•
Vision, Touch, (Taste?) (Smell?) Analysis
•
Vision Systems for Robots
•
Medical Advances:
- artificial limbs
- diagnostic tools
•
Digital Signal Processing
- 7 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Blur ing
(Slide 36)
Analog/Dig ital
MOS/Bipolar
Computer/Calculator
Computer/Communications
Supplier/Customer
IC Designers/Systems Designers
- 250,000 systems designers
- 3,000 digital designers
- 300 linear designers
Other Factors to Consider in 1994
•
Gallium Arsenide
•
Fiber Optics
•
Organic Semiconductors
•
Superlattices
•
Wafer-scale Integration
(Slide 37)
It certainly is a very exciting picture, and if you want to be part
of it, these are some of the questions you must ask yourself today.
(Slide 38)
QUESTIONS TO BE PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE,
- 8 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
!Lv>:^C^«rti'^^^^ii^^^^^
• B^:$t^^Ji^^^:^^i^<^i^^VVii^^^^?^d^i^^
K^f^l^i^i^^^d^tyc^f^^fi^ i^n:n:r^^ l^.-k^ W U i L : -wV^^.
'
Miw-Ji.<fi^^M\^is^^^^
- 9 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
3.
1984--BEFORE AND BEYOND
• DATA 1974-1994
• A VIEW OF 1994
• THE QUESTIONS
4.
g!gaag8WiawwwtaMrego»tgw3)tMe^^
DATA 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 9 4
I • THE MARKET
• TECHNOLOGY
• SUPPLIERS
• USERS
- 10 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
5.
ESTIMATED
WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET
Billions of Dollars
200
SI 75.5
150
100
S64.0
50
S25.8
S11.1
$5.4
1974
1379
1984
1989
1994
ESTIMATED
WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET
IC - DISCRETE - OPTO
Percent
100
i•I
80
60
40
20
TOTAL
I
I i I
1974
S5.4B
EZ2 IC
1979
S11.1B
•
DISCRETE
1984
$25.8B
1989
$64.0B
1994
S175.5B
m OPTO
Source: DATAQUEST
- 11 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
7.
ESTIMATED
WORLDWIDE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT MARKET
BY MAJOR PRODUCT GROUP
Percent
100
60
60
40
20
1974
$2.58
TOTAL
E2 MP
M
1879
S7.1B
ED MEMORY
a
^
^
1984
S20.2B
•
1994
S160.4S
1989
S55.4B
LOGIC
^
LINEAR
8.
ESTIMATED APPLICATION-SPECIRC VS. STANDARD
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
Percent
(EXCLUDES ROM AND PROM}
100
80
60
40
20
1974
0 ASIC
1979
1984
1969
D STANDARD
1
1994
Source: DATAQUEST
- 12 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
9.
ESTIMATED
SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION BY REGION
1974
[~]
UNITED STATES
[ x ] EURore
O
JWrtN
H KM
1994
1S84
10.
ESTIMATED
GEOGRAPHIC SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARE
BY ORIGIN OF MANUFACTURER
1974
| ~ | UNITED STATtS
[ T j ilMOK
n
< U
1984
1994
Source: DATAQUEST
- 13 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
11.
riIyrIjj^' -| • -lIyjjrtj^^fcjgipftiiyqrti
DATA 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 9 4
• THE MARKET
| « TECHNOLOGY
• SUPPLIERS
• USERS
12.
ESTIMATED AVERAGE PRICE PER FUNCTION (ICs)
- x^
12
z
111
u
_i
s
10
z
i
-
p
3
u.
1.0
1
es
1
t
85
1
»
I
87
I
I
88 89
YEAR
t
I
1
1
90
91
92
93
94
Sourca: DATAQUEST
- 14 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
13.
«KKJJJ!KS5iSs=!5i5!;Si«K"
ESTIMATED DEVICE COMPLEXITY
YEAR
DEVICE
NUMBER OF
TRANSISTORS
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
4K SRAM
64K DRAM
1Mb ROM
4Mb DRAM
16Mb DRAM
20.000
150.000
1.200,000
4.500.000
17.000,000
14.
WAFER STARTS BY LINE WIDTH
100%
BELOW 1 MICRON
w
tt
1-2 MICRONS
Ul
u.
<
50H -
3-6 MICRONS
6 MICRONS AND UP
1974
1984
1994
Source: DATAQUEST
- 15 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
15.
WAFER SIZE
3"
6"
4"
16.
ESTIMATED SURFACE-MOUNT PACKAGES
AS A PERCENTAGE OF ICs
Percent
100
80
60
50^
40
20
1
<n
—•
1974
^^
\
1984
\
1994
Source: DATAQUEST
- 16 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
17.
flp-a^y*iOftawnffaywrtoft<^yw^^
DATA 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 9 4
• THE MARKET
• TECHNOLOGY
l^« SUPPLIERS
• USERS
18.
^MSsggsgggsRsngiisgKiwaeicMgi
ttM'saasxx^iaiirssxstX'XtsaxxxTXfsri'^^
1974
TOP TEN MERCHANT IC SUPPLIERS
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
FAIRCHILD
NATIONAL
MOTOROLA
SIGNETICS
INTEL
RCA
NEC
AMI
HITACHI
Source: DATAQUEST
- 17 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
19.
1983
TOP TEN MERCHANT 10 SUPPLIERS
•HEii'EliTr^rt^rTS
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
NEC
MOTOROLA
HITACHI
NATIONAL
INTEL
PHILIPS/SIGNETICS
FUJITSU*
TOSHIBA'
AMDSource: DATAQUEST
20.
tmiiitimmaSSaisamiMu^^
- 18 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
21.
^SS!S!;S«!Si;!SSKK!???'^KSKSSSStS5^5^;SSaK^
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF COMPANIES
MERCHANT
CAPTIVE
TOTAL
1974
1984
1994
86
36
122
180
60+
240+
360+
120+
480+
22.
ESTIMATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
AS A PERCENT OF REVENUE
Percent of Revenue
50
40
30
20
10
1374
• U.S.
1979
1984
1989
D JAPAN
1994
Source: DATAQUEST
- 19 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated O c t . 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
23.
«K:SBS3iffl!iiiSXK»;i«SilBIHISS:I!»i8lie8ii;Si8S^
WAFER FAB TURNKEY COST
1974
$
5 MILLION
1984
$100 MILLION
1994
$200 MILLION
24.
TYPICAL CONTENT OF A WAFER FAB
1974
1984
1994
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
CONTACT ALIGNERS
WET CHEMISTRY
NO AUTOMATION
WAFER STEPPERS
DRY ETCH
ION IMPLANT
SOME CAM (COMPUTER-AIDED MANAGEMENT)
X-RAY WAFER STEPPERS
DRY ETCH
ION IMPLANT
CLASS 1 WAFER ENVIRONMENTS
IN-LINE PROCESSING
FULL AUTOMATION
Source: DATAQUEST
- 20 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
25.
HISTORY OF SEMICONDUCTOR START-UPS
Some*: DXTAOUEST
26,
I" A" T'.rjLL L ' f f i i ' ^ TC!TC^ffJ1fyi^^<flWy^1^
DATA 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 9 4
<B8«a3a»BM«aMBW«aiffl»»sae8MM«Mai
• THE MARKET
• TECHNOLOGY
• SUPPLIERS
^ • USERS
- 21 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
27.
4i8I!i!SS3J!iJU8aKSS!;»»K»:X»!Sii;ISS%Si2%SSSS^XI^3{S«:;s»Si9S;»^
GROWING USER BASE
1994
1984
1974
25.000 USERS
150,000 USERS
500,000 USERS
28.
END USE
DEDP
H GOVERNIVIENT
U AUTOMOTIVE
O CONSUMER
H TELECOM
M INDUSTRIAL
1984
1974
1994
Source: DATAQUEST
- 22 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
29.
'•^»HjtKi.i(*',*»*".»':'^x»'e'(
• •».,('.-'(
' • : ' l t * ) » « ' . i ' . ',.«*•<:.(!*.-....i'
^-.-..'..•'
.:y**iMif-::^'
\^',:Y:'..'
«...'•«•
: ^ " ' : ' x . ..
> V,.. ..'»*'.
• . '
••,
,•'
. ••'f
•%
'•
' •<••- »: • . - X s i e - i
ESTIMATED
NUMBER OF ENGINEERING WORKSTATIONS
IC WORKSTATIONS
1974
1984
1994
< 1.000
4.000
250.000
30.
DATAQUEST SEMICONDUCTOR GROUP
1974-1994
1974
PEOPLE
SERVICES
CLIENTS
REVENUES
LOCATIONS
2
1
2
0
1
1984
1994
46
500
4
5.000
450
5.000
$5 MILLION $60 MILLION
3
9
- 23 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
31.
C; ?^V^*<^:^i5*fe;H: r n F^I?^-'^" ^ ^ ^ ' d '
illillliilliirirw^iiliririgfiiMiiiiiiJii^
32.
:3i:i;iiaxa;Sia;«5S»*-;va"^^;i5;£:«:if'M»?-:a«:a!;-vi-::
i;.;;"C5.;:;:35T:i;:'v*i<i:« = i:
1 9 9 4 - - T H E MARKET
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
10 TIMES LARGER
ASIC IMPACT
U.S./JAPAN STRUGGLE
SUBSIDIZED ROW ENTRY
SUPER NICHES
N E W APPLICATIONS
MARKET DRIVEN
BLURRING OF NATIONAL BOUNDARIES
- 24 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
33.
zsfspsssessscsx
1994--MANUFACTURING
• MIXED BIPOLAR/MOS
• HIGH TECHNOLOGY/LOW DIFFERENTATION
• $0.5 BILLION SALES FROM STANDARD
FAB--GOING TO $1 BILLION
• WAFER SUBCONTRACTING
• FULL AUTOMATION
• 7 D A Y S / W E E K . 24 HOURS/DAY
• 1 W E E K TURNAROUND
• NEW PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY
34.
frt^:jgj:;r>-V/i*JiKT^jj^'R^^^
:1','; ••^:>:^i;^"5ii^.*ii;"^iS"iS5iSJ^?rT;.'l:'?:^!:;' •'• hii^i^Ci'^^^^—J^^iiJ^^^^^^^t^'^r-i.-i^:^^''^^^;'^'-^^
1 9 9 4 - - T H E USERS
• NEW COMPANIES/NEW MARKETS
• NEW COUNTRIES WILL EMERGE AS USERS
• ALL SURVIVORS WILL DESIGN THEIR OWN ASICs-KEY TO SURVIVAL
• "ON-LINE" TO MULTIPLE ASIC VENDORS
• DESIGN TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE MULTI-NATIONALLY
• HARDWARE LIKE SOFTWARE
• LESS ECONOMY OF SCALE
• GROW BY A FACTOR OF 3
- 25 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
USES OF SEMICONDUCTORS IN 1994
«KkSiH8SSiiiH;SSi88!iH!S«S!SSS^^
NEITHER DATAQUEST OR ANYBODY ELSE HAS EVER BEEN
ABLE TO INVENT ENOUGH APPLICATIONS TO JUSTIFY
THE MARKETS THAT EVENTUALLY WILL OCCUR. THERE
ARE SURE TO BE ADDITIONS TO THIS LIST.
SOME IDEAS
• VOICE I/O FOR COMPUTERS
• DEDICATED COMPUTERS
• V I S I O N . TOUCH, (TASTE?) (SMELL?) ANALYSIS
• VISION SYSTEMS FOR ROBOTS
• MEDICAL ADVANCES
• DIGITAL SIGNAL PROCESSING
36,
BLURRINQ
•
•
•
•
•
•
ANALOG/DIGITAL
MOS/BIPOLAR
COMPUTER/CALCULATOR
COMPUTER/COMMUNICATIONS
SUPPLIER/CUSTOMER
10 DESIGNERS/SYSTEMS DESIGNERS
- 26 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
37.
ri' 'in I ii'I fr irn i i i irri\nLjv;L~rTir''r'rrT~rry^»'K>y°'*iw'r>'»''ftT^^
OTHER FACTORS--1994
• GALLIUM ARSENIDE
• FIBER OPTICS
• ORGANIC SEMICONDUCTORS
• SUPERLATTICES
• WAFER-SCALE INTEGRATION
38.
iCt'j'^iyiX^-^i
Sr^;^*
- 27 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
OUESOilONS
- 28 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUE^IONS
- 29 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUESTIONS
- 30 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUESTIONS
- 31 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
OUESEIONS
- 32 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
OUE^IONS
- 33 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUESEIONS
- 34 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUESTIONS
- 35 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUEsilONS
- 36 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
IP
QUESTIONS
- 37 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TBI
OUESgBlONS
- 38 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(:::aDataquest
Dataquest
BIPOLAR FIGHTS BACK
John C. East
Vice President—Bipolar Division
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Mr. East has been Vice President of the Bipolar Division of Advanced
Micro Devices, Inc., since 1982. Previously, he was Operations Manager
of Digital Integrated Circuits at Raytheon Semiconductor. He has also
held various positions in engineering, marketing, and production at
Fairchild Semiconductor. Mr. East received a B.S. degree in Electrical
Engineering and an M.B.A. degree in Production Management, both from the
University of California at Berkeley.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
few -f^^'
^^E^^iSf
i^. ^~:
:^-^--=^^.^. ^ i ^ : ^ ; . ,- :
4^^7i^-^^^*^J:.' :^"^S]F^.-^.r^5;-, 'jjr-;.--
^=^5^:-:
• '-
> l ^ . ^ . .-^V.'T 'r'^V .*^',- -. ' - - i^** .-• !*.^*^-r=' > -i >4 ^^*^. ^ f j i , - . " •.;.:...-...- —;:..;*
•im
"=.;;
•^%.'_
'
.v-.T-'.^?..
.-.
.
'
•^ui;-^-
Back
•-?? w ¥
3«. HI^^I
4. AbUltyteComblw ^ ^ - "^
All in a Single Grcutf
- 1
-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Density
(Number of Gatei)
3000
6000
Gates
Gatss
Density - ^ ^ ^
- 2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose. CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
^Alll n u
- ^ '^^^^^fL -. .^i*
G|3SIAI?
Fei'foiiiihi9 Flinc tl ons- Tttst^ Cidsldfift'
Be Done Well a Few Yecrrs^ Ago*
•
»
•
•
•
Hfgtr Speed Bit Mapped Graphfcr
Hfgfr Speed Local Networking
High Speed Data Acquistion
High* Speed Accelerators
High Speed, Medium Cost C.P.U.
-
3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
>^,^'1^-"^
'J^.i'^.^^;.'-!.;y^
•-••«?'?• v ' - - * i ^ * r ^ : ^ ? \ . 1 ? ^ - - " - " •
if ^^^^^S'W^^ -^^tEv-TlWraft^CUj J i f j u fiiRMr Mk tcftri. •- '• .'t
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ni»tjrtwt;wte»rjaiyiga*if>.CJiioa
^ ^-s^^^^^p^X'R^OWw-BlpatarR^dbBtaE^,
-T'i'te - r "
-
HIsloilcrtly' Ifot^ Pttthsd Ifi9
TschnoloQjf wFnffttm^MOS
Manufacturers
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Processes sncT BcftraT Hfeltl
Bipolar Is Fasten
:^;;:' $ -.; -^*^'
CTrcnits CerrrSoirretfaT^Bt^
Replaced by CMOST
-
5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TodavALMdhia
Edge of
• ©Crinlojy
LMdlrtflEdgi
E n t r a s infai
RlK-ef-tfMMI
Edg»
ti'^f^S^. . " ^ ^ ^ .
Pil^i^i
BtporsF
. . . . .. j i v f - i - . ' - 4
i - ' r f - t •»••
-1 j
> ::.-^-"- ^'.a-^^ii'^^^-VJ^?
- ., ^-vj'^ •r,'^wefr^ - I j
-
6
-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1^-j-
m
HiidlidlifTgf STgnaf SWI117 WTttioot'
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
^''^mv
21 hiu5 Experftincifa DTniriilaflfii^/^
Refams Rir Scaling Due t<r
' ^
Vefccfty Saturation, Ho! Electrorr
Hfects^PtBTCh-Through and Latch-Up^
ArrcL • •
BTpoli
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1
G«t«forC1MOS.i
>•
MIeron CaewlH«g if wW- ^
M>
Also Domlnare Bipolar
^
; ; ;
to Vawing
Powvr Los
to V ^ I n g
Bipolar H a i
Lowor Vswing
Prrvesthe Gapauitarrcg
Best WTrrs
BrpoTar
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1985
Time
PWy
SIdt Isototloir
l^s^r^i^^s
Sub Mt&fun Csoinvtrtatt
• 10-15 N.S. Procvsaor Cycles
(Single Pipelined)
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
•*—.»--
(l^aDataquest
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY SERVICE
MINI-CONFERENCES
Monday, October 15, 1984
1:45 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
This year, for the first time, the Semiconductor Industry Service is presenting hour-long mini-conferences. These miniconferences will feature presentations by the DATAQUEST staff followed by informal discussion periods.
The User Workshop will follow the format used in past years. The workshop leader will make a short presentation at
the beginning, but is mainly there to guide the discussion among the industry participants.
The objective of these sessions Is to provide an Informal forum where Interested conference attendees can focus on
key Industry Issues and discuss them In greater depth than Is possible during the larger sessions.
MINI-CONFERENCE SESSIONS
1:45 p.m. CAD/CAM and ASICs—Regent Empress Room
Jim Newcomb, Director, CAD/CAM Industry Service
Andy Propliet, Senior Industry Analyst, Semiconductor Industry Service
The fortunes of the CAD/CAIVI industry and the ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) segment of the
Semiconductor Industry are inextricably linked. The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) segment of CAD/CAIVI provides
the design technology for creating new ASIC designs: gate arrays, standard cells, and custom ICs. Advances in ASIC
technology. In turn, drive EDA workstation product Innovations. Together they form a powerful synergistic relationship
that will have a profound Impact on the semiconductor industry.
Memory—Hanover Room
Lane Mason, Senior Industry Analyst, Semiconductor Industry Service
The semiconductor memory market constitutes more than 35 percent of integrated circuit revenues. After 2-1/2 years
of extraordinary growth, this market is poised to undergo a dramatic transformation in technology, circuit diversity, and
values to the user. This seminar will provide:
• Memory market overview and status—-1984
• Trends in supplier base, technology, packaging, and price outlook
Equipment and Technology—Windsor Complex
Robert McGeary, Senior industry Analyst, Semiconductor industry Service
Gene Norrett, Director, Japanese Semiconductor industry Service
Arden DeVincenzi, Researcli Analyst, Semiconductor industry Service
Semiconductor equipment drives the technological revolution in the Semiconductor Industry. The Equipment and
Technology session will cover three topics: factory automation, worldwide joint ventures, and worldwide capital spending.
Each topic will be introduced by a 5-minute overview, followed by a 30-minute discussion workshop. The session will
end with three 10-minute recaps.
(over)
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
MINI-CONFERENCE SESSIONS (Continued)
3:00 p.m. Microprocessors—Oxford Room
Met Thomsen, Senior Industry Analyst, Semiconductor Industry Service
Jan Rey, Research Associate, Semiconductor Industry Service
This session will briefly review the microprocessor market during the first half of 1984 and will then analyze the
outlook for 32-bit microprocessors. Various forecasts for this market vary by as much as 10:1 for shipments of this
product family. This session will address this discrepancy and present market data for some expected applications for
these high-performance microprocessors.
User Workshop—Regent Empress Room
Stan Bruederie, Director, Semiconductor User Information Service
Jean Page, Industry Analyst, Semiconductor User Information Service
Mary Olsson, Research Analyst, Semiconductor User Information Service
Participants in the User Workshop will exchange views on surface-mounted packaging, just-in-time delivery, and
buying semiconductors in Japan. The objective of the workshop will be to examine the potential cost savings against the
realities of implementation.
Geographic Trends—Windsor Complex
Malcolm Penn, Director, European Semiconductor Industry Service
Sheridan Tatsuno, Research Analyst, Japanese Semiconductor Industry Service
The World of Semiconductors is becoming increasingly global. This session will deal with trends in the three major
geographic segments of the world market with emphasis on Europe and Japan rather than on the United States.
Since the spring of 1984, the U.S. semiconductor market has experienced a slowdown in bookings while the European
market is still experiencing bookings and billings that remain at feverish levels. In August, the European book-to-bill ratio
Stood at 1.37 compared with 1.00 in the United States. In 1984, DATAQUEST has predicted that European consumption
will grow at an explosive 55 percent, compared with 18 percent the previous year.
The Japanese semiconductor industry is becoming increasingly global as a result of shifting economic and political
trends. This session will examine the opening of Japanese manufacturing plants and design centers in the United States
and Europe as well as the proliferation of joint ventures and licensing agreements by Japanese companies.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK-WHAT WILL THE ELECTION'S IMPACT BE?
A. Gary Shilling
President
Gary Shilling & Co., inc.
Dr. Shilling is President of A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc., economic
consultants to a number of financial institutions and industrial
corporations. Previously, Dr. Shilling was Senior Vice President and
Chief Economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. His earlier experience
included setting up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce,
Fenner & Smith. Prior to that time, he was with Standard Oil Co. of
New Jersey, where he was in charge of U.S. and Canadian economic analysis
and forecasting. Dr. Shilling received his A.B. degree, magna cum laude,
from Amherst College, where he was also elected to Phi Beta Kappa. He
also received M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from Stanford
University.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
THIS PRESENTATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT PUBLICATION TIME.
IF A COPY IS MADE AVAILABLE TO DATAQUEST,
WE WILL MAIL IT DIRECTLY TO YOU FOLLOWING THE CONFERENCE.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
.C[Efe^T^ Dataquest
Dataquest
PERVASIVENESS—THE PERSPECTIVE REVISITED
Charles H. Phipps
Vice President, Market Development
Semiconductor Group
Texas Instruments Incorporated
Mr. Phipps is Vice President of Market Development in the Semiconductor
Group of Texas Instruments Incorporated. Previously, he was responsible
for the Corporate Office of Strategic Development at TI. Earlier, he was
involved in the development of TI's integrated circuit business,
initially as Marketing Manager, and then as Department Manager for MOS
and Memories. Before joining Texas Instruments, he was a staff engineer
for Military Engineering at Motorola, and a member of the Test
Engineering Prograuns at General Electric.
Mr. Phipps received a
B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from Case Institute of Technology
and an M.B.A. degree from Harvard University.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ABSTRACT
PERVASIVENESS - THE PERSPECTIVE REVISITED
Twenty years ago, integrated circuits were identified by P. E. Haggerty as
revolutionary departure from prior electronic components. This development
promised to remove the barriers to widespread applications of electronics, not
only to industry, but to society as a whole. The term he used to describe
this potential was "pervasiveness".*
Today, we face a future that promises the full blossoming of electronics
pervasiveness. This opportunity will provide the potential for the
integrated circuits market to continue to grow at a high rate for the next ten
years.
While semiconductor technology is widely recognized as the driving force
creating new electronics markets, it is sometimes overlooked that the
semiconductor industry must also adjust to changes affecting its structure and
strategies. Four current driving forces identified are: product complexity's
impact on investment and timeliness of market entry; manufacturing technology
trend to an operatorless environment; customer interface changes due to
semicustom products and procurement cycle; amd international competition. The
impact of these and other forces create new challenges to be addressed.
In closing, the requirements for electronics pervasiveness, as defined twenty
years ago, are briefly revisited.
•Patrick E. Haggerty, Proceedings of IEEE. December, 1964
- 1 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
SYSTEMS DESIGN AT THE CHIP LEVEL
Douglas Ritchie
Vice President, Consumer Specific Products Group
National Semiconductor Corporation
Dr. Ritchie is the vice President of National's Customer Specific
Products Group.
Previously he worked in management functions at
Burroughs Con^jany in San Diego, California. Dr. Ritchie holds a B.S.
degree in Physics from Oregon State University and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees
in Engineering/Applied Science from the University of California at
Davis/Livermore.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
IBTEGRATIBG SILICON ABD SYSTEM DESIGB
Douglas Ritchie
Vice President, Customer Specific Products Group
National Semiconductor Corporation
I.
Systems house environoment
A.
The computer-aided-design (CAD) hierarchy
B.
Challenges the system designer faces
1. Market windows
2. Time-to-market
3. Risk management
4. Technology selection
5. Vendor selection
II.
Silicon house environment
A.
The
B.
Working with the "CAD Gap"
1.
2.
3.
III.
CAD system in the silicon house
Gate arrays
Standard cells
workstations
Risk Management Tools
A,
The semi-custom technology of gate arrays
B.
Agreements between systems houses and silicon houses
- 1-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Pari< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SDHMARY OF TEE "CAD GAP"
A systems house can d e v e l o p a v e r t i c a l l y i n t e g r a t e d CAD
system extending down to a m u l t i p l i c i t y of s i l i c o n modules. The
bulk Of the system house CAD system i s not in t h e s i l i c o n
portion. The s i l i c o n vendor is i l l - a d v i s e d to attempt to upward
i n t e g r a t e i n t o t o t a l CAD h i e r a r c h i c a l c h i p - b o a r d - s o c k e t connector-backplane due to highly v a r i a b l e choices made by a wide
variety of customers.
Therefore, the s i l i c o n vendor must look for a transportable
"common denominator," Today, t h i s i s b e s t seen in the semicustom g a t e a r r a y module r e s i d e n t on a w o r k s t a t i o n . This does
not ensure a " w a l l - t o - w a l l systems d e s i g n , " but s t e p s in t h i s
direction.
The s i l i c o n vendor must l e a r n t o p l u g h i g h
"technology d a t a b a s e " i n t o the systems house CAD system in an
e f f e c t i v e , unobtrusive way.
- 2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
r
•
-
^
I
A TYPICAL HIERARCHICAL
SYSTEM OF CAD MODULES
SYSTEM
SIMULATION
MACRO LEVEL
i
1
SUBSYSTEM
SIIStULATION
1
aOARD
SIMULATION [?Ci]
.1
IMODULE
S)MULATIOH
i
SILICON OEUICE
SIMULATION
A
SlUCQN DEVICE
DESIGN
MICRO LEVEL
1,
MICRO LEVEL OF CAD SIMULATION
SILICON DEVICE
DESIGN
CIRCUIT
MODELS
TEST
DEVELOPMENT
MODULES
1
.
DEVICE
MODELS
PHYSICAL
f^ODULES
CIRCUIT
LAYOUT
DEVICE
DESIGN
PROCESS
MODULES
MASK
GENERATION
S National SemiconductDr'
- 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SILICON DESIGNER CONCERNS INCLUDE
•
Flexibility to Move with Evolving
Technology
• Device and Process
• CAD
•
Ability to Predict the Results Accurately
•
Consistently with Production Tools
•
Designer Consistency
a National Semiconductor'
AN ENGINEER'S PROBLEM
—RISK MANAGEMENT-
Silicon Vendors Must Learn to be Responsive in Their Role in
Helping to Control and Minimize the Risk Inherent in New
Product Development Cycles.
L
2 National Semiconductor'
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CORPORATE TRENDS THAT
AFFECT
SILICON RISK MANAGEMENT
•
More Power Vested in Central Procurement Functions
•
More Technology Capabilities and Insights Available in
Corporate Procurement
•
Fewer Vendors
•
Deeper Relationships
•
"Pairing," Exchange Agreements
2 National Semiconductor
THE CAD GAP
MACRO LEVEL
SYSTEM SIMULATION
INTENSIVE PORTION
CAD MODULES-
DEVICE/MANUFACTURING
INTENSIVE PORTION
MICRO LEVEL
3 NationaI Semiconductor ^—
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
INCREASING NEED FOR
MODULARITY IN CAD
•
Standards Will Become Important
•
Allow/Support/Drive Innovation
•
Allow Proprietary Work but in a
Flexible Environment
•
Allows More "Local Optimization"
•
EDIF is an Example
a National Semiconductor •
DESIGN CYCLE TIMES
24
-
N>Afl
CUSTOM LSI/VLSI CIRCUIT
22 20 18 16 14
TIME IN
MONTHS
12
10
8
STANDARD CELL (CUSTOM)
6
4
GATE ARRAY CIRCUIT
2
0
DESIGN
'Approximate times to finish a design to point of mask fabrication.
a National Semiconductor ^ ^ - ^ ^ — ^ ^ ^ — ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ - ^ ^ ^ ^ —
- 6 -
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TECHNOLOGY SELECTION
CRITERIA
•
Level of Technology/Capabilities
•
Maturity of Technology
•
Consistency with Design Needs
•
Service and Support
•
Availability of Alternate Sourcing
•
Accessibility of Tools
J
2 National Semiconductor'
UV/741
TECHNICAL RISKS IN ALTERNATE
SOURCING
•
Differences in Fab Facilities and Manufacturing Equipment
•
Freedom of Choice
• Process details
• Hardware
• Personnel
• Style
•
High Tech Solutions Increase These in Intensity
a National Semiconductor'
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
QUICK TURN AROUND SERVICE
(QTA)
•
Reduces Time to Market
•
Allows Experimentation in New Product Design
•
Allows Competitive Tracking During Extended Development
Cycles
•
Risk Management Tool
a National Semiconductor'
THE COMPETITIVE EDGE
IN SILICON
1970'S
Speed
Density
Features
Cost
1980's
Service
Flexibility
Tools
Time to Market
Adaptability to the Design Environment
Sa National Semiconductor •
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
DISTRIBUTION, A NEW ERA
John S. Abram
Executive Vice President
Product Marketing and Management
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
Mr. Abram is Executive Vice President for Product Marketing and
Management at Arrow Electronics, Inc.
He is also responsible for
miscellaneous new ventures such as Canadian operations and semi--custom ic
design services. Mr. Abram has more than 20 years of experience in the
electronics industry, half of it in manufacturing and half in
distribution.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
THIS PRESENTATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT PUBLICATION TIME.
IF A COPY IS MADE AVAILABLE TO DATAQUEST,
WE WILL MAIL IT DIRECTLY TO YOU FOLLOWING THE CONFERENCE.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
SERVICING HIGH PERFORMANCE
SYSTEMS DESIGNERS
Roger A. Smullen
President and Chief Executive Officer
Applied Micro Circuits Corporation
Mr. Smullen has been President and chief Executive Officer of Applied
Micro circuits Corporation since 1982. Previously, he was Senior Vice
President of Operations of
Intersil
Incorporated's
semiconductor
division; was a co-founder of National Semiconductor; and was a Director
of Integrated Circuits at Fairchild Semiconductor. Mr. Smullen has a
B.S. degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SERVICING THE HIGH
PERFORMANCE SYSTEM
DESIGNER
.^smm^
PERVASIVENESS PROMOTES TRANSITIONS
• ASIC's
• High Performance
• Service Orientation
- 1 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE LOGIC MARKET
MOVING TOWARD SEMICUSTOM
$ Billions
8
6
4
2
SourcM: Dataquaal
MackinletM
OnesUet
1984
1988
O Semicustom
^sSM^tS
INEXORABLE TREND TOWARD
HIGH PERFORMANCE
«•!•««• Operating *p«*4
Computer Syttoms
1,000.000
I960
1«70
iseo
1990
- 2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen CorTipany /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE SEMICUSTOM MARKET
MOVING TOWARD HIGH PERFORMANCE
$ Billions
3
SIX
^m^n
•e«irea«i •••Ka/OfMK*
Data^iMtt
MaekMoM
1984
1988
OHigh Performance
.^G^OIS
SERVICE WILL BE KEY
*The More High Technology Around Us,
The More The Need For Human Touch."
John Natobitt
ll«gatr«nd«
1M2
^iSM^m
- 3 -
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HIGH PERFORMANCE SYSTEM DESIGNER NEEDS
• High Speed Products
• Creative Semi-Custom Design Tools
• Pleasant Design Environment
• Rapid NRE Cycle
^m^^m
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HIGH SPEED PRODUCTS
IHNI)
3O0
SOD
100
PrecMSor
High P«rfen«ianc*
L«glc Array
^M^^
CREATIVE DESIGN TOOLS
Silicon Lovol Macros
SpacIal
Logic
jm^^m
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
RAPID NRE CYCLE
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TODAY'S SERVICE SHORTFALL
• Narrow Product Unes
• Inflexible Design Interfaces
• Missed Delivery Commitments
• Multiple Contact Points
• Limited Macro Libraries
• Learn By Doing
• Standard Products Orientation
.^HM^m
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
BROAD LINE OF
HIGH PERFORMANCE PRODUCTS
(WHll
-t-B«r4«f
•
•
f
•
•
L-'
>
" A - Swflai
* C - tartai
• • • • • >
u^
•
•
K
•
•
•
•
•
>
1000
2000
3000
4000
BOOO
OMMity io«t*«)
6000
,«saD«51(g(g
MULTIPLE DESIGN PATHS
CiMtenMr
I EngkMcrtng I
I Workstation I
AHCC
Froduetlon
^m^i^
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CONSISTENT MANUFACTURING PHILOSOPHY
• Proven Process Technology
• Fully Integrated Capability
• Capacity For Quick Turnaround
• Advanced Test And Measurement Equipment
SINGLE POINT OF CONTACT
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
UNCONSTRAINED MACRO CREATION
,
_^
^
^
« ^ ^
W M ^ B
• ^*tf 4fl^
4Mtf
STANDARD
MACRO
UBRARY
r=r=rV
SF"Ss,,^!/©
* ' ^
I^M •
fcj
• •»««»-*«
:sr_
*V*^B
1* ^
w^tt^m
l4*nB^
l**N^^^Bh^B
i < M b ^
»r^^^B
»-^B
LA«lB
^^^HOfeh^V
tl«fa««
CUSTOM MACROS
.^G^SO
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SERVICE
CULTURE
.^I^SO
CORPORATE COMMITMENT
• Semicustom
• Higli Performance
• Creative Design Soiutions
• Service
^m&m^
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Teiex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
PROLIFERATION OF PRODUCTS AND SYSTEMS IN JAPAN
Jerry R. Crowley
President and Chief Executive Officer
Oki Semiconductor
Mr. Crowley is a Director, President, and the Chief Executive Officer of
Oki Semiconductor. He founded Oki in 1978, and was named a director of
Oki America, inc., in 1984. Prior to joining Oki, Mr. Crowley was
Director of Module products Operations at National Semiconductor
Corporation, and prior to that, was Vice President of Marketing at
Signetics Corporation. Mr. Crowley received a B.S.E.E. degree from San
Diego State University, an M.S.E.E. degree from Arizona State University,
and is currently an M.B.A. candidate at San Jose State University.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
PERVASIVENESS:
I T S TIME I S HERE
NEW SYSTEMS CREATE NEW VLSI
OPPORTUNITIES
by JERRY R. CROWLEY
PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
OKI SEMICONDUCTOR
Presented t o
1984 Semiconductor Industry Conference
Dataquest
October 1 6 , 1984
Hotel Del Coronado
San D i e g o , C a l i f o r n i a
- 1 -
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C.Nieisen Company /1290 Ridder Pari< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Good morning. On behalf of Oki management, le't me thank Howard
Bogert and the Dataquest Semiconductor Industry Service for the
invitation to speak about the proliferation of new VLSI devices
in the growing Japanese systems market.
As a native San Diegan and as an engineering graduate of San
Diego State, let me welcome you to "my town." What I'm going to
talk about this morning is a fundamental concept: ZQMS. very
laJLASi systems currently jmiiex development in JiSLS^R ILlll
sipniflcantly drive And £iia££ new VLSI product And process
developments
There are seven major electronic market segments of importance in
the domestic Japanese market. Within each of these market
segments, there are ongoing core systems developments. I would
like to talk about two of those core systems and the VLSI
products that will be needed to make the systems perform to plan.
I will draw some general conclusions and implications from the
discussion of VSLI product and, finally, offer some suggestions
as to how members of this audience might participate in the VLSI
development race.
7 IMPORTANT JAPANESE MARKET SEGMENTS ^iZLSlilLS. 21
1. Video
2. Audio
3. Office Automation
4. Computing
5. Communications
6. Factory Automation
7. Automotive Electronics
In each of these market segments, there is ongoing work to
develop subsystems and applications that will be needed for
future domestic Japanese and export markets. Illustrative of inplace funding and development that will result in a pervasive
VLSI product proliferation are Computing and Communications.
Specifically, under the heading of Computing, the development of
the Very Large High-Speed mainframe computer (5th generation)
and, in the Communications arena, the I.N.S. (Integrated Network
System).
-
2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
XHQ MAJOR SYSTEMS
(Figure 3)
1. Very Large High-Speed Mainframe Computer (4th and 5th
generations)
2. Integrated Network System (I.N.S.)
Massive resources are being applied in Japan to bring these two
concepts to reality. Even though there is common importance for
the semiconductor manufacturer in their completion, the market
forces funding them are different. The race to produce the large
mainframe is fundamental to the computing power that Japan will
need as a bridge into the age of information; and there is great
interest, from a Japanese perspective, in assuring that this
computing power be non-IBM dependent. Mote that the 4th
and 4.5th generation computers are the classic Von Neuman-based
machine and not the "Non-Von Neuman* array processor of the 5th
generation project.
(Figure 4)
The goal of artificial intelligence is to approach the ideal
computer. Developments in artificial intelligence utilizing
megabit RAMs, gallium arsenide logic circuits and recent
breakthroughs in very high speed ECL circuitry are narrowing the
gap between human and machine intelligence each year. The result
of these Japanese strategic investments can be considered a
dramatic achievement towards the age of the information society.
VLSI FOR THE 4TH JMJQ 5 l f l GENERATION CQMPDTERS ( F i g u r e
1.
5)
IJLfi 1 megabit BLU.
Today we are on the threshold of the commercial emergence of the
256K DRAM. In the future, random access memory of between 1-4
megabits will be needed for the large high-speed mainframe
computer contemplated. Process technology will be conventional,
MMDS or CMOS. As with many of these needed VLSI products
we will talk about, very fine line geometries must be achieved,
and this has implications for the many circuits that will require
x-ray lithography.
2.
L o g i c f o r ijifi C£fl
At the beginning, one nanosecond or slightly sub-nanosecond ECL
logic will suffice for the CPU. As development continues towards
speeds approaching 0.4 nanoseconds, new ECL logic designs will
emerge. To achieve the targeted goal of 0.2 nanoseconds, logic
fabrication will shift from a silicon base towards gallium
arsenide.
- 3-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
3. Peripheral circuits
Peripheral circuitry to support the CPU and memory will be
application-specific, produced via the standard cell method at a
level of so-called wafer scale integration. CMOS, because of its
inherent stability and low power requirements, will be used for
fabrication of these devices.
4.
Input/Output
CMOS will also be used for the I/O circuitry designed by standard
cell techniques and wafer scale integration. These products will
be full custom; however, the performance characteristics used in
the definition of needed functions will, of necessity, be "loose"
to achieve reasonably acceptable yields; so perhaps some measure
of design standardization will emerge.
5. Data exchanye clrCUltS
Data transfer will be accomplished by optical methods. The very
high speed circuits used will be implemented in gallium arsenide
and later in very fine line geometry silicon.
6.
j^Qice reco9nitlon c i r c u i t s
The man-machine interface for this large computer will require
some form of voice recognition, probably using the high quality
but memory-efficient ADPCM method.
These functions will be
produced as hybrids, initially, but will ultimately be
accomplished on a single chip in silicon.
7.
Large-storage memory
The data processing capacity of the large system that we have
been describing will require a different form of storage memory.
This will probably be optically based and may, in fact, be an
extension of current laser disk technology. VLSI circuitry in
this application will be limited to high speed drivers and
controllers implemented in silicon.
Let these seven brief descriptions suffice to highlight the
importance of this large computer project for all of us in the
semiconductor arena. What about I.N.S.?
In this case, Japanese policy influentials have reached consensus
that, to leverage and add value to information and knowledge,
Japan must be one of the first nations to achieve a total digital
network communications system.
This digital network system
-
4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
will connect office, home, and factory; it will be a fusion of
communication and computation. It will have the capability of
accumulating and processing and storing information, using
telephones, video, facsimile, data terminals. Its general name
is I.N.S., and like the large mainframe project, will be
supported by digital technology and, most important, VLSI digital
technology.
VLSI EQ& iNTEt5RATED MISQBL SYSTEM
(Figure 6)
Potentially the largest market for new VLSI devices is the
conversion of Japan's telephone system into the 100% digital
integrated communication network system. The VLSI products used
to implement the I.N.S. system are predominantly communication
oriented.
1. Digital signal processor
This large chip (larger than today's standard MPU) will be
produced with very fine line width and advanced CMOS technology.
The D.S.P. will emulate a very large microprocessor unit whose
performance will be dictated by the AT&T standards for speeds as
high as 64K bits per second. This core product will require sub1 micron geometries to achieve the high speed processing which is
needed to send fixed frame information in one contiguous time
slot.
2.
Standard 32rb4t microprocessor
Common to many of the nodes within the home, office, and
manufacturing environments will be a standard 32-bit
microprocessor. The development of the processor will proceed
along many paths; semiconductor manufacturers, mid-sized systems
manufacturers, and such giants as IBM and AT&T will all develop
proprietary architecture 32-bit machines; yet all will be
application software compatible. It is our belief that, as
development continues, one or two standard products will emerge
and dominate around universal operating systems; it is a good
bet that one of these operating systems will be UNIX based.
The processor, of course, will be a single chip CMOS device with
on-chip cache memory and on-chip memory management. By today's
standards, it will be a fairly large chip—almost 12 millimeter x
12 millimeter square, depending on the size of the cache memory.
Power consumption will probably be one watt if line geometries
are 1 micron or less; 1.5 watts if 1.5 micron geometries are
used.
3. Optical interface circuit
As fiberoptic cable will be the hard link between subsystems
within the I.N.S. scheme for office, factory, and home, it is
- 5-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
clear that very high speed optical interface circuitry will be
required. Because of the speeds inherent in the system (10-30
giga Hertz) gallium arsenide, rather than silicon processors will
be employed in fabrication. At least two standard products will
probably emerge, based on speed requirements. A medium
production volume very high speed product will be applied in the
workplace; a very high unit volume, lower speed product will be
produced for the home: information processing speeds in the home
environment will be much lower. The high unit volumes will
result from connecting all those homes.
4. Miciowaye Transmlt/Receiye inteiface
I.N.S. will utilize microwave as a complementary information
pathway. Critical to digital data capture and transmission will
be a high frequency sense amplifier, initially designed as a
hybrid but, with increased demand and utilization, produced as a
single chip device. Driving long production runs and cost
decline will again be the in-home application in Japan. These
circuits will operate at a frequency of over 10 giga Hertz and,
therefore, will be implemented in gallium arsenide.
5. U^iA encrvption processing ^uut
If access to information is to be totally ubiquitous, concerns
over the security of data run high. This will force the
emergence of a very high-speed data encryption and "decryption"
solid-state device. The encryption algorhythm will be on-chip
and, in a separate functional area, an EEPROM will be accessible
by users who need to personally change the access code. As with
many of our other examples, this will be a big chip by today's
standards—l/2"Xl/2" or approximately 12 millimeters X 12
millimeters square. Coincidentally, this dimension may well
become a standard size for all new microprocessor designs, as
well as random logic.
6.
Display SJLIH&L c o n t r o l l e r s
The usability of information accumulation in the I.N.S. system
will depend upon the evolution of very high resolution flat panel
color displays. These displays (LCD or electroluminescent) will
be found in all three major environments; office, home, and
factory, and for both fixed and portable access nodes. Because of
the enormous number of displays projected, the display
driver/controllers will become standard products produced in high
volume in low-cost CMOS.
7. Protocol control/protocol conversion
Along the development pathway towards the merging or emerging of
dominant local networic or wide area network protocols, the
- 6-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
interface between various system configurationsr architectures
and information processing speeds will needr at the very least,
sophisticated protocol control and, ideally, protocol conversion
functions.
HOME COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM (Figure 7)
The Japanese consumer is already looking to purchase these
integrated network systems as soon as they become available. As
a matter of fact, the prototype systems exist in Japan's Tokyo
test market. It is called CAPTAINS, and the resulting
proliferation of new, low-cost digitally-designed consumer
products are starting to sell rapidly.
INDUSTRY COMMUNICATION SYSTEM ( F i g x i r e
8)
Conversion from hand-written Kanji methods of communication in
Japanese space environments is accelerating; and use of facsimile,
local area networking, and high-speed digital data transfer from
office to office is being pursued by a number of large system
companies, as well as the telephone monopoly, Nippon Telephone
and Telegraph.
EXAMPLE QE. QLl ££LI££ (Figure 9)
Just in case you're not convinced that these systems and their
associated VLSI devices are imminent, this slide shows some
current examples of of wafer scale integration, imaging, and high
density memory products. A generation of these chips will evolve
that will be network independent, characterized by their high
speed and CMOS fabrication. This photograph was produced for my
speech to the financial community during March, 1984.
£ai£ SIZLS. El PDNCTIQN (Figure 10)
In order to give you a perspective, this slide shows the VLSI
circuits in comparison to Oki's standard commodity, 64K dynamic
random access memory, now celebrating its 4th year of production.
The common attributes of these very large-scale devices are that
they are:
1.
Predominantly CMOS advanced processing (I know the 64K
DRAM is N-MOSl)
2.
Manufactured in highly automated (human-less) factories
3.
Focused on specific applications which will appear in
the fourth and fifth generation computers, as well as
the digital integrated network system boxes.
I stated in my opening comments that I would identify seven
important Japanese market segments, discuss two product systems
within the communications and computing field and their dependent
VLSI devices, and would then draw some general conclusions and
implications from these two areas.
- 7-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CONCLDSIONS (Figure 11)
From our presentation today, three major conclusions can be
reached:
1.
The fourth and fifth generation computer development
and the massive integrated network system will drive
the VLSI process and product design technology in
Japan.
2.
To be a successful system manufacturer in these two
areas, one must possess or have a partner who
possesses the ability to create and manufacture, in
yolumfif these incredible VLSI semiconductor products.
3.
Japanese semiconductor makers believe that these
applications are 100% assured and, therefore, their
capital investments in technology development and
factory automation to achieve them is seen as
relatively risic free.
Think about that last statement for a moment—particularly if
you have the investment decision responsibility for your company.
From the position of the United States system manufacturer or
semiconductor manufacturer or investor, there are two possible
outcomes:
1.
With these VLSI products defined, the American
semiconductor industry can move to design and massmanufacture them for export to a large and growing
Japanese merchant marketplace.
2.
As an alternate course of action, the user,
manufacturer, or financier can move towards some
partnership arrangement with a Japanese semiconductor
manufacturer, thus assuring a low-risk but high
probability participation in these extraordinarily
interesting arenas.
From the view of the Japanese marketplace, it is clear that
"Pervasiveness—its time is here.*
- 8Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Pari< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
OKI
Figure 1
SEVEN IMPORTANT
JAPANESE MARKET SEGMENTS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Video
Audio
Office Automation
Computing
Communications
Factory Automation
Automotive Electronics
OKI
FiguT^e 2
UHtrOKOlTTOII
- 9 Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS
Very Large High-Speed Mainframe
Computer (4th and 5th Generations)
y^OKI
Figure 3
THE IDEAL COMPUTER
10^' Memory Cells
Human Memory "Software'
• Knowledge Processor
• Language Processor
• Reasoning
128-Bit
+ CPU
Pattern
Recognition
Voice
Recognition
Nervous System/LAN
• Recognition
• Learning
• Inference
• Self-Education
• Understanding
OKI
F1gur» 4
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
VLSI FOR THE 4TH AND
5TH GENERATION COMPUTERS
1 to 4 Megabit RAM
Logic for the CPU
Peripheral Circuits
Input/Output
Data Exchange Circuits
Voice Recognition
Large-Storage Memory
OKI
v^
Figure 5
•mn^UiiTO*
VLSI FOR
INTEGRATED NETWORK SYSTEM
Digital Signal Processor
Standard 32-bit Microprocessor
Optical Interface Circuit
Microwave Transmit/Receive Interface
Data Encryption Processing Unit
Display Driver Controllers
Protocol Control/Protocol Conversion
OKI
Vi
Figure 6
•iMtfi^hour-rw
- 11 Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HOME COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM
2GHz
Modem
P«r«on«i
Computar
* Character And Pattarn Talaphona Accasa Information Syatam
^OKI
Figure 7
INDUSTRY COMMUNICATION SYSTEM
Horn*-I
tatagratad
Mat work Sy«tam
^^_^^^^_
—. — _ V
^ _
fi
Ovarsaat -J
I
Data
i
Valufl
Bank
P
Addtd I
•
UaiaailJ
f
^
^ — f
L_=_=_/ /
/
'OKI
Figure 8
BMR9<DUCT«
- 12 Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Figure 9
OKI MEMORY CHIP SIZES BY FUNCTION
FUNCTION
KH
METRIC
64KDRAM
•4K0RAM
2S6KOnAM
1 MEGABIT ROM
1 MEGABIT ROM
4 MEGABIT ROM
4 MEGABIT
STATIC RAM
MSM37e4A
MSM3764
MSM372S6
M8M28101 (3^)
MSM28101 (SM)
16J mni2
29.8 mm2
47.5 nim2
210iiim2
SMinmZ
MSM28401(2M)
w98 mm*
4800 mm2
DEVELOPMENT
ENGLISH
RELATIVE AREA
25,168 mll2
45344 mil2
74,000 iliil2
324,738 mil2
912380 in«2
1,082,500 fli«2
7.422337 inil2
1
1.8
2.9
13
36
43
29S
lOIMCf: OKI ICMWONOUCTON
NOVnMCNKM
OKI
Figure 10
•BH CONDUCTOR
- 13 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CONCLUSIONS
1
4th & 5th Generation Computer Development and
Integrated Network System Drive Japan's VLSI
Process and Product Design Technology
2
Successful System Manufacturer Must Possess
Ability to Create and Manufacture VLSI
Semiconductor Products in Volume
3
Japanese Semiconductor Makers Believe These
Applications and Their Capital Investments
are Risk Free
OKI
Figure 11
timrONDccraK
- 14 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Li:L:£:^ I );;i:a D a t a q u e s t
Dataquest
ASICs COME OF AGE
Henri Jarrat
President and Chief Operating Officer
VLSI Technology
Mr. Jarrat has been President and Chief Operating Officer of VLSI
Technology, Inc. (VTI) since September 1983. Prior to joining VTI, he
was Corporate Vice President and General Manager of the Bipolar
Integrated Circuits group of Motorola Inc.'s Semiconductor Products
sector. Mr. Jarrat also held several positions in the Electronic Devices
Division of Texas Instruments. Mr. Jarrat received a Master's degree in
Electrical Engineering and Solid State Physics from the university of
Grenoble, France, and an M.B.A. degree from the tjniversity of Dallas.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATION SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS - COME OF AGE - SLIDE 1
TODAY I WOULD LIKE TO OFFER A PROGRESS REPORT ON ONE
OF
THE MAJOR
EMERGING
MARKET
SEGMENTS IN THE
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY -APPLICATION SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS.
APPLICATION SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS - ASIC
SINCE THE TERM
CIRCUITS
APPLICATION
- SLIDE 2
SPECIFIC
INTEGRATED
WAS COINED BY HOWARD B06ERT OF DATAQUEST
ALMOST 2 YEARS AGO, ITS USE TO DESCRIBE THIS
HAS
BECOME WIDESPREAD - ALMOST UNIVERSAL.
THERE ARE MORE TECHNICAL DEFINITIONS
MARKET,
ALTHOUGH
OF THE ASIC
I PREFER THIS ONE, WHICH DEFINES IT IN TERMS
OF COMBINED SYSTEM AND VLSI
SHARING
MARKET
TECHNOLOGIES.
THIS
OF TECHNOLOGY TO HEEJ SPECIFIC USER NEEDS IS
THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC OF THE ASIC MARKET.
- 1-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ASIC DESIGN ALTERNATIVES
- SLIDE 3
THE ASIC
MARKET
TECHNOLOGY
FIRST,
CAN BE SEGMENTED
DESIGN
ALTERNATIVES.
INTO
TWO PIECES -- SEMICUSTOM AND CUSTOM,
DEPENDING ON THE NUMBER
REQUIRED
BY
OF MANUFACTURING
STEPS
TO COMPLETE THE CIRCUIT FROM THE POINT OF
USER DEFINITION.
THE SEMICUSTOM SEGMENT CAN BE FURTHER
INTO
SIMPLER
PROGRAMMABLE
SUB-DIVIDED
LOGIC DEVICES AND MORE
COMPLEX GATE ARRAYS.
THE CUSTOM SEGMENT CAN BE PARTITIONED
BASED
ON STANDARD
DENSITY
DESIGNS
BUILDING
WHICH
DESCRIBED AS FULL CUSTOM.
COMPILER
APPROACHES
HAVE
HIGHER DENSITY, WE EXPECT THE
DESIGNS
BLOCKS, AND HIGHER
HISTORICALLY
AS BUILDING
GENERATE
INTO
BEEN
BLOCKS AND
CELLS OF HIGHER AND
DISTINCTION
BETWEEN
THESE TWO SUB-SEGMENTS TO BLUR.
-
2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATION CONSIDERATIONS
THE
- SLI,DE A
BEST
ASIC
DESIGN ALTERNATIVE DEPENDS ON THE
APPLICATIONS NEEDS OF A PARTICULAR SYSTEM.-
PROGRAMMABLE LOGIC DEVICES
APPLY.
THESE
ARE THE EASIEST TO
USER PROGRAMMABLE DEVICES HAVE FOUND
WIDESPREAD APPLICATION IN INTEGRATING SSI AND MSI
LOGIC.
GATE
ARRAYS
OFFER
A DENSITY
IMPROVEMENT OVER
PROGRAMMABLE LOGIC THAT CAN BE USED
LEVELS
OF LOGIC INTEGRATION.
FOR HIGHER
THE GATE TO PIN RATIO
OF MOST GATE ARRAY DEVICES MAKES THEM A GOOD
FOR
APPLICATIONS
CHOICE
IN BUS ORIENTED OR I/O INTENSIVE
ARCHITECTURES.
AS INDICATED
STANDARD
EARLIER.
CELLS
THE DISTINCTION
AND CUSTOM
DESIGN
BETWEEN
IS BECOMING
BLURRED. BOTH FROM A USER AND FROM A VENDOR'S
OF
VIEW.
POINT
THESE DESIGN APPROACHES OFFER SUFFICIENT
DENSITY TO ALLOW SUBSYSTEMS OR EVEN COMPLETE
SYSTEMS
TO BE IMPLEMENTED ON A SINGLE CHIP.
- 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
DESIGN-PRODUCTION COST TRADEOFFS - SLIDE 5
A
RELATIVE INDICATION OF THE TRADE OFFS AMONG THESE
DESIGN ALTERNATIVES IN BOTH DESIGN TIME AND RELATIVE
COST
PER GATE
IS SHOWN HERE.
PROGRAMMABLE
DEVICES CAN BE DESIGNED MOST QUICKLY,
RELATIVELY
HIGH
COST
B U T HAVE
B U T ACHIEVE
A
PER GATE COMPARED WITH GATE
ARRAYS OR CELL BASED DESIGNS, WHICH TAKE
DEVELOP
LOGIC
LONGER
TO
SUCCESSIVELY LOWER COSTS PER
FUNCTION.
AS THE OVERLAPS INDICATE, THE CHOICE
OF A
DESIGN
ALTERNATIVE IS NOT ALWAYS CLEARCUT.
-
4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WORLDWIDE ASIC
- SLIDE 6
NO
CHARACTERISTIC
OF THE ASIC
MARKET IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN ITS RATE OF GROWTH AND THE SIZE
IS
PROJECTED TO ATTAIN BY THE END OF THE DECADE. AS
SHOWN IN THIS DATAQUEST
MARKET
PROJECTION,
THE MERCHANT
WILL GROW FROM $651M AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
DECADE TO $11.931M BY 1990.
RATE
IT
THIS
COMPOUND
GROWTH
OF 38Z IS WELL ABOVE THE 22Z PROJECTED FOR THE
SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET AS A WHOLE.
THE PROJECTED SIZE OF THE MERCHANT ASIC
1990
MARKET
IN
IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE TOTAL MERCHANT IC
MARKET WAS ONLY THREE YEARS AGO.
-
5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HOW REALISTIC ARE THESE PROJECTIONS?
IF
THESE
- SLIDE 7
PROJECTIONS
ARE CORRECT, ASICS ARE NOT
MERELY AN EVOLUTION, BUT A REVOLUTION.
SALES
OF ALMOST
IF ANNUAL
$12B ARE ACHIEVED, ANYONE WOULD
AGREE THAT ASIC HAS COME OF AGE.
BUT HOW REALISTIC ARE THESE
LIKELY
THAT
IS IT
A NEW MARKET CAN GROW AT THIS RATE FOR
SUCH A PERIOD OF TIME?
ENOUGH
PROJECTIONS?
TO REACH
CAN IT BECOME
SUCH A TOTAL SIZE?
PERVASIVE
IN ANSWERING
THESE QUESTIONS, IT MAY BE USEFUL TO LOOK
AT THE
LAST MAJOR ELECTRONICS REVOLUTION AS A PRECEDENT
THE
MICROPROCESSOR
REVOLUTION.
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WORLDWIDE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET - SLIDE 8
ACCORDING TO DATAOUEST'S HISTORICAL
FIGURES,
AND PROJECTED
THE WORLDWIDE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET WILL
GROW FROM $25M IN 1975
TO
COMPOUND
OF 82X OVER THE TEN YEAR
PERIOD.
MANY
GROWTH
RATE
$55A9M
IN 1985, A
AS I WILL TRY TO DEMONSTRATE,
THERE ARE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THESE TWO MARKETS
-- ENOUGH I BELIEVE, TO MAKE
THE PROJECTED
ASIC
MARKET GROWTH VERY ACHIEVEABLE.
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HICROPRQCESSOR REVOLUTION - DRIVING FORCES
WHAT HAVE BEEN
EXPLOSIVE
- SLIDE 9
THE DRIVING
GROWTH
FORCES
BEHIND THE
OF THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET? IN
THE BEGINNING, THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET WAS CREATED
BY
A COMBINATION
BREAKTHROUGHS.
A
OF USER
NEEDS AND TECHNICAL
AS THE MARKET DEVELOPED, WE OBSERVED
PROLIFERATION OF SUPPLIERS AND INCREASING Ef.PHASIS
ON DESIGN TOOLS AND CUSTOMER SUPPORT.
WAS
MARKET
GROWTH
FUELED BY CONTINUED ENHANCEMENTS OF PRODUCTS AND
PROCESS TECHNOLOGY, AND BY THE EVOLUTION OF A
RELATIONSHIP
CLOSE
BETWEEN THE MICROPROCESSOR USER AND THE
MICROPROCESSOR VENDOR.
IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH
MARKET
WHETHER
THE MICROPROCESSOR
IS A MEANINGFUL MODEL FOR THE ASIC MARKET,
LET'S LOOK IN MORE DETAIL AT EACH OF THESE
FORCES
DRIVING
AND SEE HOW THEY COMPARE WITH THE FORCES
DRIVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ASIC MARKET.
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SYSTEMS USER NEEDS - MICROPROCESSOR
THE
- SLIDE 10
MOST IMPORTANT DRIVING FORCES FOR ANY MARKET ARE
THE NEEDS OF THE USER.
A
THE MICROPROCESSOR
NUMBER OF CRITICAL USER NEEDS.
OF THESE DEVICES
QUICKLY
ALLOWED
THE PROGRAMABILITY
SYSTEMS
ENGINEERS TO
CREATE NEW PRODUCT CONCEPTS, AND BRING THEM
TO MARKET, WHILE AT THE SAME
PRICE
ADDRESSED
TIME
IMPROVING THE
AND PERFORMANCE OF THE END PRODUCT.
MICROPROCESSOR TENDED TO REDUCE THE TOTAL
COUNT
IN SYSTEMS
OF EQUIVALENT
SINCE THE
COMPONENT
COMPLEXITY,
MICROPROCESSORS TENDED TO IMPROVE THE RELIABILITY
OF
ELECTRONICS SYSTEMS.
BECAUSE
EMBODIED
THE SOFTWARE WRITTEN FOR EACH APPLICATION
USER-PROPRIETARY
MICROPROCESSOR
BASED
SYSTEMS
PRODUCTS
COULD
KNOWLEDGE,
BE READILY
DIFFERENTIATED FROM COMPETITION AND PRODUCTS
BE
MARKETED
ON THE BASIS OF THEIR DISTINCTIVE
FEATURES. SYSTEMS
ADAPTING
COULD
ENGINEERS
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
BECAME
INVOLVED IN
TO FIT PARTICULAR
APPLICATIONS.
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SYSTEMS USER NEEDS - MICROPROCESSORS/ASIC - SLIDE 11
IN
COMPARING
THESE USER NEEDS WITH THOSE ADDRESSED
BY THE ASIC MARKET, HE FIND A STRIKING
SIMILARITIES.
ASIC
NUMBER
PRODUCTS ADDRESS BOTH THE NEED
TO SHORTEN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND TO IMPROVE
AND
PERFORMANCE.
LIKE
IN
A SYSTEM,
PRICE
THE MICROPROCESSOR, ASICS
ALSO TEND TO DECREASE THE TOTAL NUMBER OF
CIRCUITS
OF
THEREBY
INTEGRATED
INCREASING
RELIABILITY.
AS FOR DISTINCTIVE
ENGINEERS
COMPETENCE, ASICS ALLOW
TO CREATE
UNIQUE
BUILDING BLOCKS THAT CAN HELP
DIFFERENTIATE
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT
THEIR
COMPANIES
TO
THEIR HARDWARE PRODUCTS FROM THOSE OF
THEIR COMPETITORS. NOT ONLY CAN THIS PROVIDE
PRICE
SYSTEMS
PRODUCT
AND PERFORMANCE ADVANTAGES IN THE MARKETPLACE,
BASED ON PRODUCT FEATURES, BUT IT ALSO
PROPRIETARY
IDEAS
PROTECTS
SINCE THE ASIC CIRCUITS USED TO
IMPLEMENT THEM ARE NOT READILY COPIED.
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
MINDSET STORY
- SLIDES 12A - 12H
AS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW ASICS CAN BE USED TO MEET SYSTEM USER
NEEDS,
LET'S
LOOK AT A RECENT EXAMPLE.
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE CHALLENGE
-- SLIDE 12A
ABOUT 15 MONTHS AGO MINDSET,
CORPORATION,
FACED
THEN
A
A CHALLENGE.
NEWLY-FORKED
THEY HAD SOKE
EXCELLENT IDEAS FOR BRINGING A COMPLETELY NEW LEVEL
OF
GRAPHICS
PERFORMANCE
TO THE PERSONAL COMPUTER
ENVIRONMENT BUT THE COMPLEXITY
NECESSARY
THE
OF THE HARDWARE
TO IMPLEMENT THESE IDEAS WAS FAR BEYOND
PACKAGING
AND COST
CONSTRAINTS
OF THIS
MARKETPLACE.
JOINT DESIGN TEAM
- SLIDE 12B
WHEN WE BROUGHT
RECOMMENDED
THAT
SOLUTION
CHALLENGE
TO VTI, THE
WAS A JOINT
DESIGN TEAM
CONSISTING OF TWO ENGINEERS FROM VTI, EXPERIENCED
IC
DESIGN.
IN
AND THREE ENGINEERS FROM MINDSET WHO
THROUGHLY UNDERSTOOD THE NEW SYSTEMS
CONCEPTS FOR
GRAPHICS PROCESSING THAT MINDSET WANTED TO IMPLEMENT.
- 12 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
DOUG AT WORKSTATION
- SLIDE 12C
TO
THIS
JOINT
EFFORT,
VTI CONTRIBUTED ITS
PROPRIETARY IC DESIGN TECHNOLOGY.
COMPUTER CONTROLLED DIFFUSION FURNACES
- SLIDE 12D
AND ITS WAFER PROCESSING TECHNOLOGY,
CONTRIBUTED
TO ITS UNDERSTANDING
HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE.
BUS TIMING ARBITRATOR
WHILE
MINDSET
OF THE SYSTEM
THE RESULTS WERE IMPRESSIVE.
- SLIDE 12E
THE FIRST FRUITS OF THIS
BUS-TIMING
ARBITRATOR
PROCESSOR
EFFORT
TO CONTROL
BETWEEN THE 8086 PROCESSOR
GRAPHICS
JOINT
USED
WAS A
MEMORY ACCESS
THE SYSTEM AND
WHICH PROVIDED HIGH PERFORMANCE
GRAPHICS.
- 13 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
PC GRAPHICS CONTROLLER CHIP
THE
-- SLIDE 12F
SECOND
CHIP
WAS A MICRO PROGRAMMED GRAPHICS
CONTROLLER WHICH IMPLEMENTED IN HARDWARE
SPEED.
FUNCTIONS
SOFTWARE.
BOTH
APPROXIMATELY
PREVIOUSLY
CHIPS
WERE
HAD VLSI
ACCOMPLISHED THROUGH
COMPLETED
IN
5 MONTHS BY THE JOINT DESIGN TEAM AND
BOTH WORKED THE 1ST TIME.
- 14 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE SOLUTION
-
SLIDE 12G
THE RESULT WAS THAT TWO CHIPS
INTEGRATED
SYSTEM
REPLACED ^50
CIRCUITS SHOWN ON THESE FOUR WIRE WRAPPED
BREAD BOARDS.
IMPLEMENT
THAT
AS A RESULT,
MIND'SET
WAS ABLE TO
ALL OF THE FEATURES IN THEIR PROTOTYPE
IN A BOX THAT MET THEIR COST
AND PACKAGING
GOALS.
GRAPHICS - SLIDE 12H
UNFORTUNATELY,
A
STATIC PRESENTATION OF THIS TYPE
CANNOT DEMONSTRATE A 100-1
GRAPHICS
PERFROMANCE,
SPEED
THAT
IMPROVEMENT
IN
THE MINDSET APPROACH
OFFERS OVER CONVENTIONAL SOFTWARE
BASED
APPROACHES
TO PERSONAL COMPUTER GRAPHICS.
- 15 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SYSTEMS USER NEEDS
-- SLIDE 13
HOW
DID APPLICATION SPECIFIC IC'S DO IN MEETING THE
SYSTEMS USER NEED WE DEFINED EARLIER?
TIME
IN TERMS OF
TO MARKET, THE MINDSET PRODUCT WENT TO MARKET
ON TIME.
AFTER
THE SYSTEM WAS INTRODUCED LESS THAN A
THE IC DESIGN PROJECT STARTED.
WE'VE ALREADY
TALKED ABOUT THE IMPROVEMENTS THAT MINDSET
IN
PRICE
ACHIEVED
AND PERFORMANCE OF THEIR COMPUTER OVER
CONVENTIONAL APPROACHES.
THESE
YEAR
MORE IMPORTANTLY,
THROUGH
TWO APPLICATION SPECIFIC CIRCUITS, MINDSET HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE A DISTINCTIVE COMPETENCE AT THE
HARDWARE
LEVEL
OVER ITS COMPETITION.
THE MINDSET
COMPUTER IS FAR MORE RELIABLE THAN ONE INCORPORATING
^150
IC'S FOR THE SAME PRODUCT AND THE MINDSET
SYSTEMS CONCEPT IS PROTECTED FROM
COPYING
THROUGH
THEIR PROPRIETARY CIRCUITS.
- 16 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WELLINGTON STORY
-- SLIDE 16A - 15C
THIS
EXAMPLE
ILLUSTRATES THE POWER OF APPLICATION
SPECIFIC INTEGRATED
ENTIRE
SYSTEM
CIRCUITS
TO INCORPORATE
AN
ON A SINGLE CHIP AND THE INVOLVEMENT
OF THE CUSTOMER'S
SYSTEM
ENGINEERS
AS SILICON
ARCHITECTS.
IN
THIS CASE. WANG LABORATORIES WANTED TO INTEGRATE
A 16 BIT MICROPROCESSOR TO REDUCE THE SIZE AND COST
OF
THIS
SYSTEM
WITHOUT SACRIFICING COMPATIBILITY
WITH A LARGE BODY OF EXISTING SOFTWARE.
ACCOMPLISH
THIS
OBJECTIVE. A JOINT DESIGN TEAM WAS
FORMED CONSISTING OF THREE
THOROUGHLY
IN ORDER TO
UNDERSTOOD
WANG
ENGINEERS WHO
THE SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE AND
TWO VTI ENGINEERS WHO HELPED THEM INCORPORATE
THEIR
IDEAS ON SILICON.
- 17 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TECHNICAL BREAKTHROUGHS - MICROPROCESSORS/ASIC
THE
EMERGING
ASIC
- SLIDE 15
MARKETPLACE
SIMILAR TECHNICAL FORCES.
CONTINUING
IMPROVEMENTS
IS DRIVEN BY TWO
THE FIRST
OF THESE
IS
IN LSI AND VLSI PROCESS
TECHNOLOGY WHICH ALLOW AN EVER INCREASING NUMBER OF
SYSTEM
FUNCTIONS TO BE IMPLEMENTED ON A ON A SINGLE
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT.
THE SECOND DRIVING
FORCE
IS THAT
OF
ADVANCED
SOFTWARE FOR COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN.
AS
OUR INDUSTRY
ARTICULATED
TO THE CHALLENGE
BY HOWARD BOGERT A COUPLE OF YEAR.AGO,
WHICH IS TO COME
DESIGNERS'.
RESPONDS
UP WITH
WE WILL
A
'VISICALC
SEE MORE
FOJLIC
AND MORE OF THE
WORLD'S 200,000 - 300,000 SYSTEMS ENGINEERS
SILICON
ARCHITECTS
AND CREATING
THEIR OWN
APPLICATION SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS.
KEY
INGREDIENT
TO THE EXPLOSIVE
BECOMING
THAT'S A
ASIC GROWTH.
- 18 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TECHNICAL BREAKTHROUGHS - SLIDE 14
NEW
ELECTRONICS MARKETS ARE USUALLY CREATED THROUGH
A COMBINATION OF USER
TECHNICAL
NEEDS
BREAKTHROUGHS
MICROPROCESSORS
MICROPROCESSOR
WERE
THAT ADDRESS THOSE NEEDS.
NO
PROVIDED
AND CORRESPONDING
EXCEPTION.
A WAY TO EXPLOIT THE
EMERGING LSI PROCESS TECHNOLOGY
DENSITY
NON-MEMORY DEVICES.
BY CREATING
BREAKTHROUGH.
ENGINEERS
TO WRITE
WAS A
IT PERMITTED
SOFTWARE
HIGH
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A
PROGRAMMABLE DEVICE ON A SINGLE CHIP
TECHNICAL
THE
THAT
MAJOR
SYSTEMS
ADAPTS AN
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT TO A PARTICULAR APPLICATION.
- 19 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE
RESULTS
IS A SINGLE CHIP THAT REPLACED SIX
CIRCUIT BOARDS
CIRCUITS.
CONTAINING
OVER
1000 INTEGRATED
IN 53 WEEKS, BEGINNING FROM THE TIME WHEI
TRAINING OF THE WANG ENGINEERS STARTED,
PRODUCED
A
THIS
TEAM
CIRCUIT WHICH WORKED COMPLETELY ON THE
FIRST PASS AND WAS READY FOR PRODUCTION
WITHIN
3
MONTHS.
TO
ILLUSTRATE THE POWER OF THE NEW DESIGN TECHNOLOGY
THAT IS FUELING THE ASIC
SIMILAR
COMPLEXITY
REVOLUTION,
CARRIED
OUT BY
DESIGNS OF
MERCHANT
SEMICONDUCTOR VENDORS, TWO OR THREE YEARS AGO WOULD
HAVE
REQUIRED
PERHAPS 5 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE FOR A
PERIOD TWICE AS LONG.
OF
OR IN OTHER WORDS,
A
FACTOR
10 MORE RESOURCES TO COMPLETE THE SAME PROJECT.
THIS PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT
ADVANCED
IS THE RESULT OF
CAD TOOLS, WHICH IN TURN IS MAKING SYSTEMS
ENGINEERS SILICON ARCHITECTS.
- 20 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
PROLIFERATION OF SUPPLIERS - MICROPROCESSORS/ASIC
IN
- SLIDE 18
LOOKING AT THE ASIC MARKET WE SEE MANY PARALLELS
IN THE PROLIFERATION OF ASIC SUPPLIERS.
ALTHOUGH CUSTOM IC'S HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR A
THE
WHILE,
GROWTH OF THE ASIC MARKET WAS FUELED BY A NUMBER
OF START UP COMPANIES.
AS THE MARKET HAS GROWN, MOST OF THE MAJOR
HAVE
SUPPLIERS
ENTERED THIS MARKET OR HAVE ANNOUNCED PLANS TO
DO SO.
ACCORDING TO DATAQUEST, THERE ARE NOW OVER
140 COMPANIES WORLDWIDE PROVIDING ASIC SOLUTIONS.
IN
THE EARLY PHASES OF THE ASIC MARKET MOST OF ASIC
PRODUCTS WERE AVAILABLE ONLY FROM A SINGLE
BUT
RECENTLY
SUPPLIER
HE HAVE OBSERVED A NUMBER OF SECOND
SOURCE AGREEMENTS.
- 21 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
PROLIFERATION OF SUPPLIERS - MICROPROCESSORS
- SLIDE 17
AS THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET DEVELOPED,
PROLIFERATION
OF SUPPLIERS.
WE SAW A
INITIALLY THE MARKET
WAS ESTABLISHED BY NEW OR START
UP COMPANIES,
NOTABLY INTEL AND ZILOG.
WHEN
IT BECAME CLEAR THAT MICROPROCESSORS WERE NOT
'J.
JUST A- NICHE MARKET, MOST OF THE MAJOR
SUPPLIERS
GOT INTO THE ACT.
SEMICONDUCTOR
FURTHER EVIDENCE OF THE
MATURING OF THIS MARKET WAS GIVEN BY SECOND
AGREEMENTS
AMONG
SUPPLIERS
SOURCES OF SUPPLY.
FAMILIES
THROUGH
TO PROVIDE ALTERNATE
IN ORDER
SHARED
SOURCE
TO EXPAND
PRODUCT
EFFORTS, SECOND SOURCING
AGREEMENTS WERE EXPANDED TO BECOME
CO-DEVELOPMENT
PARTNERSHIPS.
ANOTHER
NOTEWORTHY
MICROPROCESSOR
DISTRIBUTION
MILESTONE IN THE HISTORY OF THE
MARKET
WAS THE EMERGENCE
OF
AS A MAJOR MARKET CHANNEL FOR BOTH
MICROPROCESSORS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPMENT
SYSTEMS.
- 22 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
AS WITH MICROPROCESSORS, WE ARE ALSO
EMERGENCE
OF PARTNERSHIPS
ASIC PRODUCT LINE.
CO-DEVELOPMENT
SEEING THE
TO DEVELOP AND BROADEN
AN EXAMPLE
OF THIS
IS A
AGREEMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED BETWEEN
FAIRCHILD AND VTI FOR THE EXTENSION OF A
2
MICRON
GATE ARRAY FAMILY.
WHILE
THESE
FOUR FEATURES SEEM TO PARALLEL SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET,
YET
IT MAY
BE TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT DISTRIBUTION WILL
PLAY THE SAME CRITICAL ROLE FOR ASIC AS IT DID FOR
MICROPROCESSORS.
HOWEVER,
WE ARE SEEING A GREAT
DEAL OF INTEREST FROM DISTRIBUTORS IN ASIC
AND
IN ASIC DESIGN CENTERS.
PRODUCTS
AND I PREDICT THAT THE
DISTRIBUTORS HILL RESPOND TO THIS CHALLENGE AND WILL
BECOME A MAJOR FACTOR IN THIS MARKETPLACE.
-
23
-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
DESIGN TOOLS - MICROPROCESSORS/ASIC
- SLIDE 20
THE EMERGENCE OF HIGH PERFORMANCE 15 AND 32 BIT
MICROPROCESSORS,
COUPLED
WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADVANCED IC DESIGN SOFTWARE, HAS RESULTED
PROLIFERATION
IN THE
OF ASIC DESIGN WORKSTATIONS.
THESE ARE MORE COMPLEX AND MORE EXPENSIVE
MICROPROCESSOR
DEVELOPMENT
ALTHOUGH
THAN THE
SYSTEMS, THERE SEEMS TO
BE A PARALLEL HERE TOO.
AS WITH MICROPROCESSORS, THE EARLIEST
VLSI
DESIGN
WORKSTATION SOFTWARE WAS SUPPLIED BY ASIC VENDORS.
JUST
AS HE OBSERVED VENDOR INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT
SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE MICROPROCESSOR
ARE
ALSO
NOW SEEING
MARKET, WE
THE ADVENT OF INDEPENDENT
CAE/CAD WORKSTATIONS SUCH AS THOSE
AVAILABLE
FROM
- 24 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
DESIGN TOOLS - MICROPROCESSORS
ANOTHER
- SLIDE 19
NOTEWORTHY
FEATURE IN THE EMERGENCE OF THE
MICROPROCESSOR MARKET WAS THE IMPORTANCE
OF DESIGN
TOOLS.
INITIALLY
THESE
DESIGN TOOLS WERE SUPPLIED ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BY THE MICROPROCESSOR VENDORS BUT LATER
WE
SAW THE ADVENT OF VENDOR INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT
SYSTEMS SUCH AS THOSE AVAILABLE FROM HEWLETT
PACKARD
AND FROM TEKTRONIX.
AS
THIS
TABLE
SHOWS>
THE NUMBER OF INSTALLED
MICROPROCESSOR DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS BETWEEN 1975 AND
1985
HAS BEEN A LEADING INDICATOR OF THE GROWTH IN
THE SILICON SIDE OF THIS MARKETPLACE.
- 25 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
DAISY, MENTOR, AND VALID LOGIC.
CLOSELY
RELATED TO THIS IS WORK GOING ON NOW IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A VENDOR
STANDARD,
INDEPENDENT
INTERCHANGE
EDIF, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ACCELERATE THE
GROWTH OF THE ASIC MARKET.
IN THIS TABLE WE SEE THAT THE NUMBER
ASIC
WORKSTATIONS
INSTALLED
IS EXPECTED TO GROW FROM ABOUT
1000 IN 1985 TO OVER 50,000 IN 1990.
THE
OF
INTERESTINGLY,
PROJECTED GROWTH FOR WORKSTATIONS IN THE 5 YEAR
PERIOD
1985-1990
IS GREATER
THAN
THAT FOR
MICROPROCESSOR DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS IN THE 10 YEAR
PERIOD 1975 - 1985.
- 26 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CUSTOMER SUPPORT - MICROPROCESSORS
SINCE
- SLIDE 21
THE MICROPROCESSOR
MARKET HAS BASED ON NEW
TECHNOLOGIES, TRAINING AND CUSTOMER
SUPPORT
WERE
CRITICAL TO ITS GROWTH.
TRAINING
WAS INITIALLY
ESTABLISHED
BY THE
MICROPROCESSOR VENDORS, THEN BY CONSULTANTS AND NOW
NEARLY
EVERY
ELECTRICAL
COMPLETED AT LEAST
ENGINEERING GRADUATE HAS
ONE CLASS
IN MICROPROCESSOR
APPLICATION.
IN
DEVELOPING
MICROPROCESSOR
CUSTOMERS FOUND THAT THEY
SUPPORT
AND THIS
ESTABLISHMENT
NEED
NEEDED
LOCAL
TECHNICAL
HAS MET THROUGH THE
OF EXTENSIVE
ENGINEERING FORCES
BASED DESIGNS, MOST
FIELD
BY THE MAJOR
APPLICATIONS
MICROPROCESSOR
SUPPLIERS AND DISTRIBUTORS.
- 27 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
- SLIDE 22
IF ANYTHING, THE TECHNICAL
ASIC
MARKETPLACE
MICROPROCESSORS.
LOCAL
SUPPORT
SOPHISTICATION
IS EVEN
FOR THAT
GREATER THAN THAT OF
REASON,
ARE PERHAPS
OF THE
TRAINING AND
MORE CRITICAL TO THE
SUCCESS OF THIS REVOLUTION.
ASIC TRAINING WAS INITIALLY
SEVERAL' OF
WHOM
PROVIDED
BY VENDORS,
EXTENSIVE TRAINING
OFFER
WE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SEE THE EMERGENCE
ORIENTED
COURSES IN SOME OF THE LEADING
AND WE EXPECT MANY MORE RELATED
COURSES
PROGRAMS.
OF ASIC
UNIVERSITIES
AND MORE
PARTICIPATING UNIVERSITIES, BY THE END OF THE DECADE.
IN
ADDITION
TO FIELD APPLICATIONS ENGINEERS, ASIC
SUPPLIERS ARE PROVIDING
THROUGH
ASIC
IN-DEPTH
DESIGN CENTERS.
DESIGN
VENDOR-FUNDED
LOCAL
THERE ARE ALREADY ABOUT 220
CENTERS
WORLDWIDE
INCLUDING
CENTERS,
USER CAPTIVE DESIGN CENTERS
IN MAJOR SYSTEMS HOUSES CUSTOMERS AND AN
AND
RAPIDLY
GROWING
EMERGING
NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT THIRD
PARTY ASIC DESIGN COMPANIES.
ASIC
SUPPORT
AS A PART
OF THEIR
STRATEGY, DISTRIBUTORS ARE ALSO OPENING DESIGN
CENTERS.
- 28 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
OLIVE STORY
- SLIDE 23A - 23B
IN THIS EXAMPLE, OLIVETTI SHARED
TECHNOLOGY
THROUGH
SYSTEM
AND VLSI
AN IN-HOUSE JOINT DESIGN CENTER
TO IMPLEMENT NEW FEATURES AND REDUCE THE COSTS OF
THIS ADVANCED ELECTRONIC TYPEWRITER.
-
29 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENT - MICROPROCESSORS
FURTHER
GROWTH
- SLIDE 2^)
OF THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET WAS
FUELED BY RAPID ONGOING IMPROVEMENTS IN PRODUCTS AND
TECHNOLOGY.
THIS
TOOK
THE FORM OF INCREASING
INTEGRATION AS MICROPROCESSORS WENT FROM H BITS TO 8
TO
16 TO TODAYS POWERFUL 32 BIT MICROPROCESSORS.
TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENT
PERFORMANCE
ALSO
RESULTED
IN
HIGHER
AND IN THE AVAILABILITY OF ON CHIP
MEMORIES SUCH AS RAM, ROM, AND EPROM, WHILE COST PER
FUNCTION
DECLINED.
RECENTLY
INTEGRATION AND LOWER POWER
PRONOUNCED
TREND
TOWARDS
THE NEED FOR HIGHER
HAS RESULTED
CMOS
IN A
FOR MOST NEW
MICROPROCESSOR DESIGNS.
-
30 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENT - MICROPROCESSORS/ASIC
AGAIN
THERE
- SLIDE 25
APPEARS TO BE A STRONG PARALLEL IN THE
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION OF MICROPROCESSORS
THE
PROGRESSION
AND ASICS.
FROM PROGRAMMABLE LOGIC ARRAYS TO
GATE ARRAYS TO STANDARD
CELL
COMPILERS
IN INCREASING LEVELS OF
WILL
RESULT
DESIGN
TO SILICON
INTEGRATION AND SOPHISTICATION FOR ASIC
SMALLER
GEOMETRIES
INTERCONNECTION
AND
SYSTEMS
MORE
PRODUCTS.
EFFICIENT
ARE MAKING ASIC PRODUCTS
THAT OPERATE AT HIGHER AND HIGHER SPEEDS.
NOW
WITNESSING
WE ARE
THE EMERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGIES THAT
PERMIT ON BOARD MEMORIES INCLUDING RAMS,
EPROMS.
AS THE MARKET
MATURES, WE ARE SEEING
DECREASING COSTS PER FUNCTION, AND CMOS
THE
DOMINANT
PROCESS
ROMS, AND
TECHNOLOGY
IS CLEARLY
FOR THE ASIC
MARKETPLACE.
THE LAST TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENT ON THIS
ME6ACELLS
CONVERGENCE
-
IS REALLY
AN
SLIDE
-
INDICATION OF THE
OF THE MICROPROCESSOR
AND
ASIC
TECHNOLOGY.
- 31 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
MEGACELLS
- SLIDE 26
AS
SHOWN HERE, MEGACELLS CREATE LARGE SCALE BUILDING
BLOCKS THAT ALLOW EFFICIENT INTEGRATION OF MANY LSI
FUNCTIONS
ONTO A SINGLE VLSI CHIP.
CAN INCLUDE MICROPROCESSORS
PERIPHERALS
COLLECTING
AS HELL
AND THEIR
AS BUILDING
SO CALLED RANDOM LOGIC.
HOST OF THE MAJOR ELEMENTS OF MANY
BASED
SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED
BLOCKS FOR
IN THIS DIAGRAM
MICROPROCESSOR
CAN BE IMPLEMENTED ON A SINGLE CHIP.
THESE INCLUDE THE MICROPROCESSOR
CONTROLLER,
THESE FUNCTIONS
ITSELF,
THE I/O
A CRT CONTROLLER, SOME RANDOM 'GLUE'
LOGIC, AND A TIMER.
-
32 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
USER/VENDOR INTERFACE - MICROPROCESSORS
--
SLIDE 27
FINALLY, THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET WOULD
EVOLVED
NOT HAVE
OR GROWN SO RAPIDLY WITHOUT THE EMERGENCE OF
A NEW-USER VENDOR INTERFACE.
IN THE MICROPROCESSOR
ERA,
HAVE SUPPLIED THE RAW
SEMICONDUCTOR
VENDORS
TECHNOLOGY IN TERMS OF
MICROPROCESSORS,
INCREASINGLY
WHILE
USERS
HAVE
SOPHISTICATED
SUPPLIED THE
SYSTEMS KNOW-HOW IN THE FORM OF SOFTWARE
TO PUT
THESE MICROPROCESSORS TO WORK.
TO
A GREATER
DEGREE THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH OTHER
FORMS OF INTEGRATED
LOYALTY
A STRONG
USERS TEND TO CHOSE
THE SAME
THAT
HAS PROVIDED
DESIGN
RECOGNITION OF THIS, VENDORS HAVE
SUPPLY
MICROPROCESSORS
VENDOR THAT THEY HAVE WORKED WITH
BEFORE AND TEND TO BUY THE SILICON
VENDOR
MUTUAL
HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN MICROPROCESSOR USERS
AND VENDORS.
FROM
CIRCUITS,
AN ADEQUATE
FLOW
FROM
THE SAME
SUPPORT. IN
WORKED
HARD TO
OF MICROPROCESSOR
COMPONENTS.
USERS HAVE ALSO BEEN GIVEN A GREAT DEAL
HELP
TO USE CURRENT
PRODUCTS
AND THEY
AVAILABLE
HAVE
OF DESIGN
MICROPROCESSOR
BEEN GIVEN AN UNUSUALLY
DETAILED VIEW IN THE FUTURE PRODUCT PLAN
FOR MOST
NEW MICROPROCESSOR PRODUCTS.
- 33 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
USER/VENDOR INTERFACE - MICROPROCESSOR/ASIC
THIS
TREND
- SLIDE 28
TOWARD A STRONGER USER-VENDOR
ALSO APPEARS
APPLICABLE
TO THE EMERGING
INTERFACE
ASIC
MARKET.
AGAIN
THE ASIC VENDORS ARE APPLYING RAW TECHNOLOGY
IN THE FORM OF DESIGN TOOLS,
USERS
AND PROCESS,
WHILE
ARE SUPPLYING THE SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY THAT PUTS
THESE TO WORK IN A PARTICULAR
SYNERGISM
OF THIS
APPLICATION.
THE
PARTNERSHIP IS ONE OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THE ASIC REVOLUTION.
AS WITH MICROPROCESSORS, THERE
STRONG
DEGREE
APPEARS
TO BE A
OF MUTUAL LOYALTY BETWEEN ASIC USERS
AND THEIR VENDORS.
- 34 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HOWEVER THE ASIC MARKET ADDS ANOTHER
THE
USER-VENDOR
ASSISTANCE
RELATIONSHIP.
BECOMING
HEAVILY
DESIGN
PROJECTS IN
THE ASIC VENDOR MUST REVEAL A GREAT DEAL ABOUT
CAD AND PROCESS
SUPPLIER
MUST
TECHNOLOGIES,
REVEAL
A
STRONG
AND THE SYSTEMS
GREAT
PROPRIETARY SYSTEM CONCEPTS.
A
DESIGN
IN THE DETAILS OF THE USER SYSTEM, ASIC
CIRCUITS OFTEN INVOLVE JOINT
WHICH
WHEREAS
TO
FOR MICROPROCESSORS COULD BE SUPPLIED IN
A GENERIC WAY WITHOUT THE VENDOR
INVOLVED
DIMENSION
DEAL ABOUT HIS
OUT OF THIS HAS GROWN
DEGREE OF MUTUAL TRUST BETWEEN VENDOR AND
IJSER IN THE ASIC MARKETPLACE.
MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST
DEALING
WITH
DEGREE
OF INTEGRITY IN
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION IS PARAMOUNT
TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ASIC COMPANIES.
-
35
-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATION SPECIFIC SYSTEM SOLUTIONS
THIS
- SLIDE 29
COOPERATION
IS THE REAL FORCE DRIVING THE
EMERGENCE OF THE ASIC MARKET.
SPECIFIC
THROUGH
APPLICATIONS
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS WE CAN COMBINE ADVANCED
SYSTEMS IDEAS WITH KNOWLEDGE OF CIRCUIT
PROCESS
DESIGN
SYNERGISTIC.
DESIGN AND
TO ACHIEVE RESULTS THAT ARE TRULY
BUT BRYOND
THE TECHNOLOGY
SYNERGY,
THERE IS THE CUSTOMER-VENDOR TEAM SYNERGY..
A TRUE PARTNERSHIP
THE HALLMARK OF ASIC IN THE FUTURE.
- 36 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen CoITipany / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HICROPROCESSOR/ASIC REVOLUTION - DRIVING FORCES
- SLIDE 30
IN SUMMARY THEN, IT APPEARS
PARALLELS
REASONABLE
IN THE GROWTH OF THE MICROPROCESSOR MARKET
AND THE GROWTH OF THE ASIC MARKET,
FORCES
TO DRAW
THAT
BASED
ARE DRIVING THE TWO MARKETS.
ON THE
IN THE
ASIC BUSINESS, WE HAVE SEEN STRONG DRIVING FORCES IN
THE
FORM
OF USER NEEDS AND SUPPORTING TECHNICAL
BREAKTHROUGH.
SUPPLIERS.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE PROLIFERATION
OF
WE ARE SEEING THE SAME SIGNIFICANCE
ATTACHED TO DESIGN TOOLS AND LIKE THE MICROPROCESSOR
SUPPLIERS,
CUSTOMER
ASIC VENDORS ARE PROVIDING HIGH LEVELS OF
SUPPORT.
ENHANCEMENT
THE RATE
CONTINUES
TECHNOLOGY
TO BE VERY RAPID IN THE ASIC
MARKET AND HOST IMPORTANTLY
EMERGENCE
OF
OF AN EXTREMELY
WE ARE SEEING THE
CLOSE
USER-VENDOR
INTERFACE.
- 37 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
TWO REVOLUTIONS
I
HOPE
-
I HAVE
SLIDE 31
CONVINCED
YOU THAT THERE ARE A REMARKABLE NUMBER OF
SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE BY NOW HISTORICAL MICROPROCESSOR REVOLUTION, AND
THE ONGOING ASIC REVOLUTION.
WE'RE
ALMOST
HALF
WAY THROUGH THE DECADE.
HOW ARE WE DOING SO FAR?
COMPARED WITH THE FIRST FIVE YEARS IN MICROPROCESSORS, OUR GROWTH RATE
CONSIDERABLY
LOWER,
BUT THE MARKET IS MUCH LARGER.
YEARS, THE ASIC GROWTH RATE PROJECTED IS WELL BELOW
GROWTH
RATE
FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS.
IS
FOR THE NEXT FIVE
THE MICROPROCESSOR
GIVEN THE SIMILARITIES OF DRIVING
FORCES, AND THE SIMILAR PERVASIVENESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL IC APPLICATIONS,
ONE MIGHT EVEN CONCLUDE THAT THE ASIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS ARE CONSERVATIVE!
THANK YOU.
- 38 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(:i:aDataquest
Dataquest
APPLICATIONS, THE FUEL OF PERVASIVENESS
Kenneth V. McKenzie
Associate Director, Semiconductor Group
Dataquest Incorporated
Mr. McKenzie is Associate Director of DATAQUEST's Semiconductor industry
Service. He is responsible for all research activities on semiconductors
and related publications.
During Mr. McKenzie's 14 years in the
electronics industry, he has held management positions in both design
engineering and marketing.
Previously, he was Marketing Manager at
Zilog, Incorporated, and was Marketing Manager for 8-bit microprocessors
at Intel Corporation.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
i??^^;^-*^^?-?^^^.;;^^?-!;^!;^)^.^^.:^^.?)^!^^ jn, [^:^^^,fp^;^;;MV-;^J7"^^-=^i^^it^^^;:^
•wLrliJI IIJ Ii'
APPLICATIONS
THE FUEL OF PERVASIVENESS
KEN MCKENZIE
s^
W.
Associate Director
Semiconductor industry Group
Dataquest incorporated
wi|^aiii4|^##%»^^
,!^Jii.i:i.^:iiiJ3E?!Vfrni'-i;,iirKlJri;jl^ii^
'
a
m^m
•
<.
'^Semiconductors - The new CRUDE OIL"
Jerry Sanders
>
.
r
^
»
- 1 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
.
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT CONSUMPTION
BSonsof Doitrs
—1
SO
-
m
»
•
a
n
10
_ _ f-i 1—I—1 rn n n 1 1
70
7 1 7 2 7 3 7 i 7 5 7 » 7 ? 7 t 7 4 I O H « M » 1 » S » » J B n
'
iiii)iiIm)jiniia.mjM
APPLICATIONS - THE FUEL OF PERVASIVENESS
y.ii"A''A"A'A''jta3WRW«aa»' 'I • if < •
v^wvntvrftvffMcxiM.-ttMX
BUILDING THE INDUSTRY FOUNDATION
• PRODUCT EVOLUTION
• DISPLACEMENT MARKETING
• "GOLDEN RECORDS"
• USER ACCEPTANCE
- 2 O 1984 Dataquest I n c o r p o r a t e d O c t . 15 e d . - R e p r o d u c t i o n P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
BUILDING THE INDUSTRY FOUNDATION
isesms»
1960-1980
THE DISPLACEMENT ERA
• 20 YEARS AGO. DISCRETE = 95% OF TAM
• 10 YEARS AGO. ICs = 46% OF TAM
• MICRO MARKET IS ONLY 10 YEARS OLD
• DISPLACEMENT OF TTL LIMITED BY SPEED
BUILDING THE INDUSTRY FOUNDATION
"I.H'JM-iLW.Y,
£«°«a»
1960-1980
THE DISPLACEMENT ERA
APPLICATIONS
• "DUMB" CRT TERMINALS
• ELECTRONIC SCALES
• "SMART" GAS PUMPS
• POINT-OF-SALE TERMINALS
- 3 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATIONS - THE FUEL OF PERVASIVENESS
agmwaaaaaaa
DEVELOPING THE TOOLS FOR GROWTH
• RELIABLE PRODUCT
• FUNCTIONAL SYSTEMS INTEGRATION
• USER APPLICATION SUPPORT
• MARKET-DRIVEN PROCESS TECHNOLOGY
• PREDICTABLE FACTORIES
DEVELOPING THE TOOLS FOR GROWTH
<aac3aBeaaaexi
1980-1985
SUCON - THE MEDIA FOR SYSTEMS DEVELOPEMENT
• PRACTICAL DESIGNER WORKSTATIONS
• HARDWARE/SOFTWARE SYNERGY
• THE USER DRIVES THE MARKET
• APPLICATIONS TECHNOLOGY
• APPLICATION-SPECIFIC ICs
- 4 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
DEVELOPING THE TOOLS FOR GROWTH
1980-1985
TRANSITION TO THE INFORMATION AGE
APPLICATIONS
• THE OFFICE PERSONAL COMPUTER
• ELECTRONIC HOME ENTERTAINMENT
• CAD WORKSTATIONS
• VOICE/DATA INTEGRATION
•nB9MaBIMMff9S>E3g«
iinminiiHininM^jj
DEVELOPING THE TOOLS FOR GROWTH
attwaaaawfii'KwwMBwwaaBttt ii'^IIiw ,nj>',t'nir»in;i,"xwi»MaB'wwttiinFjIiOT»wi
1980-1985
TRANSITION TO THE INFORMATION AGE
• MEETING THE JAPANESE CHALLENGE
• MARKET-DRIVEN PRODUCT PLANNING
• USER/VENDOR RELATIONSHIPS
• FACTORY AUTOMATION
• APPLICATION-SPECIFIC ICs
- 5 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
maiiMiliJilijiijMdMUi'Itl
fISl 1IH MB
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
rsrsrsesfsesssrsv^
1985—^
• COMMUNICATIONS
• COMPUTER
• CONSUMER
• GOVERMNENT/MILITARY
• INDUSTRIAL
• TRANSPORTATION
^•ff^^*^'*0^'™^^^*?'"Oft*^
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
1985—«THE SILICON "ENGINE"
• HARDWARE/SOFTWARE TRANSPARENCY
• GENERIC I/O
• HUMAN MODELING (AD
• CONSULTIVE PROCESSING
- 6 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CONSUMPTION ( $ ) BY END USE
P D C o r t n O F nrtticET
I
I
i«1
i n iw
I
i
I
i
I
ocw^nn.
MTTQ
laHSunER
Tti£can
iwusm.
-«««•
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
usxaasKKMoaaetii
ts»MVK»vaaasaeMae)U)KSMmmm.w^:iinui
1985—*
COMMUNICATION APPLICATIONS
• INTEGRATED VOICE/DATA/GRAPHICS
• USER-IMAGE SECURITY
• CELLULAR MOBILE TELEPHONE
- 7 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
sgansagsRaaaaaia
a^'asaasxwvr^twifKwwsrv
,i,vr"v^fvj,:iiujii'xsei
1985—^
COMPUTER APPLICATIONS
• TRANSPARENT VIRTUAL PROCESSORS
• VOICEPRINT USER PASSWORD SYSTEMS
• REAL-TIME CONCURRENCY
• NON-DIGIT HUMAN INTERFACE
• OPTICAL STORAGE
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
iaiw.aiif.jBeg
aai"!" px'xx jLijusBIeiai8SBiww."i'.'i''jw".ii')Ir'A'it.','i',
1985—^
CONSUMER APPLICATIONS
• "SMART" CREDIT CARD
• ALL-ELECTRONIC STILL CAMERA
• HOME ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM
• HOLOGRAPHIC ENTERTAINMENT
- 8O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
«»»
imarjainjj
1985—^
GOVERNMENT/MILITARY APPLICATIONS
• REUSABLE SPACE SYSTEMS
• HEALTH CARE
• FAA SAFETY/CONTROL
• HIGHWAY/TRANSIT SYSTEMS
• "CS" DEFENSE SYSTEMS
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
iiw.n.'.Af.i.'.ufj.A.'.i:'
tMIi»XS»
1985—«INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS
• MOTOR CONTROLS
• ENERGY MANAGEMENT/POWER SUPPLIES
• PROCESS CONTROL/INSPECTION SYSTEMS
• ROBOTICS
• MEDICAL MONITORING/CONSULTATION
- 9 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
UI.».r..^J,1l.f.LiJ11ILIJ>f.U
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
v.'K'p.vii.'imvt.'.
1985—^
TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS
• "SMART" CAR ENGINE
• PERSONAL AUTO SECURITY SYSTEM
• DIAGNOSTIC MONITOR/SCHEDULER
• "HEADS-UP" DRIVER DISPLAY CONSOLE
• CRASH-AVOIDANCE SYSTEM
1985 —
"SMART" CREDIT CARD
• SINGLE. ALL-ACCOUNT DEVICE
• BUILT-IN SECURITY SYSTEM
• MEDICAL HISTORY AND MILITARY ID
• PASSPORT AND LOCAL CURRENCY CONTROL
• AUTOMOBILE SECURITY INTERLOCK
- 10 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
rMPACT OF FUTURE APPLICATIONS
I I IIII ii'iiii I I III! I II >
I I I I mill IIII II I I
I I II
1985—«TOUCH-SENSITIVE CLOTHES IRON
• AUTOMATIC TURN-ON BY TOUCH
• INACTIVE FOR 10 MINUTES - SHUTS OFF
• LOWER ENERGY CONSUMPTION
• ELIMINATES MAJOR CAUSE OF FIRES
• BUILT-IN TEMP CONTROL
IMPACT OF FUTURE APPLICATIONS
1985—^
"SMART" CAR ENGINE
• ELECTRONIC VALVES (NO CAM)
• INTEGRAL FUEL INJECTION
• COMPUTER IGNITION (NO DISTRIBUTOR)
• VARIABLE POWER CURVING/EMISSIONS
• SELF-DIAGNOSTICS/SERVICE
- 11 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
iriTiniBr"iniriiiinniiiiiiiniiiiiniiiini' iiiiii'Kin t iiiiiiiiinii iiiiin i ii mn
asuansuustu
IMPACT OF FUTURE APPLICATIONS
•ll'1'..'l.'"'"*'***''''^'!"'"^'''!''"'"'"""'™'
1985—*
ALL-ELECTRONIC STILL CAMERA
• DIGITAL STORAGE REPLACES FILM
• FRAME-BY-FRAME ASA CONTROL
• ON-BODY COLOR BALANCE/FILTERING
• HOME COMPUTER EDITING/'BRUSHING"
• ELECTRONIC IMAGE TRANSMISSION
sse^at/M/eeaxasssaeBBasiBeeeatiMUieutteeuii/uis^
miui ii j m LII MwaMtMaaaaassBaaiaaiggBawMiwWMWWWsBgWMt^^
IMPACT OF FUTURE APPLICATIONS
M » <I*t''t''»'«a»aBeaa»s«aiMa8i»".'i''x'j('ji'jU',i • i" n-'.i
1985—«MODELING CAD WORK STATION
• SYSTEM LEARNS FROM THE USER
• VOICE I/O FOR THE "THIRD HAND"
• PRODUCTIVITY LEVERAGE
• MAN/MACHINE SYNERGY
• REVERSE OBSOLESENCE
- 12 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated O c t . 15 e d . - R e p r o d u c t i o n P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
APPLICATION - THE FUEL OF PERVASIVENESS
APPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH
• END-USE MARKETING
• PRODUCT PLANNING TECHNOLOGY
• THE "SOFT" DATA CATALOG
• INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES
• "WHAT BUSINESS ARE WE IN?"
- 13 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
HIGHLY INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
Jon Cornell
Senior Vice President and Sector Executive
Harris Semiconductor
Mr. Cornell is Senior Vice President and Sector Executive of Harris
Semiconductor's
Sector.
Previously, he was Director of Analog
Operations, Vice President of Analog Operations, and the head of Harris'
Products Group. He joined Harris in 1968 as an Associate Principal
Engineer.
Mr. Cornell attended Rensslaer Polytechnic Institute and
received a B.S. degree in Physics from Wichita State University. He
later received a Master's degree in Electrical Engineering from the
University of South Florida in Tampa.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
HIGHLY INTEGRATED SYSTEMS:
A Convergence of Key Technologies
Jon E. Cornell
Senior Vice President, Sector Executive
Harris Corporation, Semiconductor Sector
The history of electronics can be characterized as a quest for
higher levels of integration per unit volume and lower costs per
function.
SLIDE ONE —
[Progress chart with past five phases, HIS phase]
Looking at that progress over the last half century or so,
there are five major phases of progress and each began at a time
when the then current technology was reaching limiting barriers.
In every instance, the beginning of a new phase marJced industry
advancement toward production of a more integrated device than
was possible in the previous phase.
And those five phases were all the result of a radical new
technology introduction that revolutionized the design of future
systems.
Our industry is now on the very threshold of another
significant phase that is not the result of a revolutionary new
product or process, but rather the convergence of three important
and evolving technologies. More importantly, while the old
progression was toward more integrated components, this next
phase will move toward more highly integrated systems.
And the impact'of integrating systems is great — we can again
make real strides in reducing overall system size, decreasing
- 1Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
significantly the cost-per-function and marlcedly improving
system reliability.
The ability to now concentrate on the design and development
of ^systems is indicative of the maturity of our industry where,
for the first time, a real partnership between system design
houses and semiconductor manufacturers can be struclc to the
benefit of the whole industry and its customers.
SLIDE TWO —
[HIS driving forces: CMOS, DA, PKG]
The three technologies that have evolved to drive this next
level of integration are Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductors
(CMOS), Design Automation and Paclcaging.
CMOS
CMOS was, for many years, seen as an advantage only in
power-limited applications where very dear tradeoffs — notably
in performance and level of integration — were made.
Now there is no sacrifice in performance as compared to
NMOS/bipolar and the low power advantage is still retained. In
fact, modern silicon gate CMOS technology has progressed to the
point where it is clearly the technology of the future for VLSI.
But even more importantly to the realization of true highly
integrated systems, CMOS allows dense paclcing of components
because of low heat dissipation made possible through its low
power operation.
DESIGN AUTOMATION
Another key to the next phase of highly integrated systems is
the evolution of Design Automation technology.
Computers have been used for years to aid in the design
electronics, but that usage normally involved a collection
discrete hardware and software that didn't communicate and
not allow a hierarchal approach to solving design-oriented
problems. The familiar term for this level design tool is
(computer aided design).
of
of
did
CAD
Design Automation is far more than that. It's a whole
integrated process that allows top-to-bottom design coupled with
simultaneous bottom-to-top analysis and feedback.
Since Design Automation uses a common database where changes
on one level trigger automatic adjustments at all other levels,
the designer can move from initial concept through logic, layout
- 2Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
and even manufacturing steps with the ability to interrogate any
level at any time.
Further, it allows the engineer to concentrate on total system
capabilities rather than on discrete gate functions —
effectively giving the system/logic designer the tool to design
the IC with no major change in methodology.
In a nutshell. Design Automation provides for the first time
the integrated system needed to develop "systems in silicon."
PACKAGING
The last of the three converging technologies needed to
realize the highly integrated system goal is paclcaging.
With new packaging techniques using low-cost plastic leaded
chip carriers (PLCCs), we can achieve higher pin count and
smaller size than that possible with conventional dual-in-line
packages. Also, surface mounts can be installed on both sides of
boards, decreasing further the overall board size.
SLIDE THREE —
[CMOS driving forces: speed, function, power]
The driving forces in selecting CMOS technology are power,
functionality and speed.
POWER
In the past few years, integration levels have increased to
the point where conventional NMOS power barriers were reached.
With CMOS, a 90 percent reduction in power over NMOS/bipolar
designs is feasible.
Converting existing designs to CMOS effectively break the
power barrier experienced with the most dense units of today.
But a more significant CMOS advantage for tomorrow's highly
integrated systems is that as CMOS integration levels increase,
total system power requirements actually lessen. That occurs
because a large percentage of the power dissipation in CMOS is to
drive external interconnect capacitance at system level.
Another benefit is that with static CMOS design, which gives
the ability to stop the system's clock, system power requirements
can be reduced by yet another order of magnitude. So static CMOS
gives a new dimension of flexibility with respect to controlling
system power/performance tradeoffs.
- 3-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
FUNCTION
CMOS has evolved to the point where industry-standard, and
highly integrated, functions are now available. Examples of that
are the 80C86 16-bit microprocessor, the 80C51 8-bit
microcomputer and the 80C85 radiation-hardened microprocessor.
In addition, many SSI, MSI and LSI peripheral functions are
now available.
SPEED
CMOS is not a laggard in performance, either. In the past,
slow speed was associated with CMOS circuits. But the low
performance state was more the result of a lacJc of attention paid
to CMOS technology than any inherent limitation. By applying
modern MOS fabrication techniques, CMOS has now converged on NMOS
performance. Today it is widely recognized that advanced CMOS
designs provide performance as good or better than NMOS while
Still realizing the benefits of low-power.
And because of these advances it should be noted that the next
generation of industry-standard products are being designed today
in CMOS technology.
SLIDE FOUR: [Driving forces of Design Automation]
Design Automation is a Jcey to achieving a high level of system
integration. The three driving forces in the development of DA
are hierarchal software, networked hardware and modular design.
HIERARCHAL SOFTWARE
Using CAD, the design progressed from the bottom up and after
all the worJc was done, a top down analysis was done to see if the
circuitry worlced.
With DA's hierarchal software, top down design methodology
becomes possible with bottom up analysis available throughout the
design process.
Part of the analysis possible is multi-mode simulation.
Behavioral, logic and circuit simulation can be done from the
same database and these three modes can even be "mixed"
appropriately.
And with a very large DA database and simulation abilities, it
is feasible to simulate circuits containing large numbers of
transistors. So larger, more complex systems can be handled by a
smaller number of less experienced design engineers. That is why
Design Automation is so vital an issue in the emergence of Highly
Integrated Systems. Obviously, development of HIS is a more
- 4Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
design intensive taslc and to maintain leadership in this area, it
is absolutely essential to achieve greater design efficiency.
NETWORKED SYSTEM
Another important part of Design Automation is the integration
toward a completely networked system.
With a common database tying integrated workstations, data can
be captured easily at remote locations and current data can be
distributed and used where it's needed.
Current systems network the design, simulation, test,
maskmaking and layout functions. Very soon, computer-aided
manufacturing stations will be tied in to completely automate the
design sequence. Then, any change on any level will ripple to
every other level.
MODULAR DESIGN
Modular Design is the use of standard SSI, MSI or LSI
functions for the development of a VLSI circuit.
Three significant advantages of this approach are the
reduction in development risk, the increase in design efficiency
and the ability to customize and optimize for a given
application.
The risk is lowered by using industry-standard and
characterized functions as building blocks; efficiency is
improved by reduction of development time and cost through the
use of higher level functions. By using industry-standard
functions, designers can use the same functions they previously
used in PC board-level design.
Since each cell comes as a fully tested and proven unit,
designer learning time is reduced and output is increased. A
designer who completed "X" number of gates per week can do lOX or
lOOX using DA.
SLIDE FIVE: [Driving forces of Packaging]
Advancement in packaging technology is the third key in the
realization of Highly Integrated Systems.
Packages are becoming larger and yet smaller — larger in pin
count and smaller in size. Advanced functions and the increased
I/O of high integration call for increased efficiency in board
layout and packaging.
- 5Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SURFACE MOUNT
Advances in surface mount technology now give significant
packaging benefits. Surface mounting can reduce the area
occupied on the board by about 3-1 over dual-in-line packages.
The reduced height of plastic leaded chip carriers (PLCC) and LCC
packages further reduces overall volume and, of course, weight
savings are realized when package size is reduced.
The emergence of PLCC packages is also significant since it
uses low cost plastic materials and eliminates the thermal
mismatch encountered when ceramic type chip carriers are mounted
on epoxy boards.
In fact, the curled leads of PLCCs provide a buffer against
thermal or mechanical stress and show none of the material
mismatch seen with ceramic leadless chip carriers. PLCCs can be
used with conventional fiberglass PC boards and allow easy
manufacture of highly integrated systems.
HIGH PIN COUNT
The smaller outline of surface mount packages allow a higher
pin count per board area which is important for the integration
of several functions on a single chip. As integration goes up,
the requirement for I/O goes up and the surface mount concept
makes high pin count packages feasible for manufacturing.
SYSTEM INTEGRATION
Since integrated CMOS systems don't need large power supplies,
fans, heat sinks and fins, these new developments in packaging
technology can be used. And the ability to now use PLCCs and
LCCs means a more reliable, more easily manufactured and less
expensive per function unit can be delivered to the customer.
SLIDE SIX: [Technology convergence facilitates HIS development]
So the convergence of these technology forces now places us on
the Highly Integrated Systems threshold — the next industry
phase.
While each evolving area of these converging technologies is
important, key areas that should be illustrated by example are:
the Speed possible with CMOS, Modular Design benefits, and the
packaging advantages afforded by Surface Mounts and System
Integration.
- 6Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SLIDE SEVEN: [Impact on Performance: J-11]
A joint development of Digital Equipment Corporation and
Harris Semiconductor, the J-ll is fabricated using advanced
self-aligned junction-isolated (SAJI IV) process. The J-11 set
contains features not previously available on chip including
full PDP-11 memory-management functions, high-speed cache memory
support and on-chip floating point instruction set.
Even with the added value of increased function and decreased
size, the J-11 still exceeds the performance of all members of
the PDP-11 family.
Of significance is the key role of CMOS and advanced packaging
techniques in achieving superior system performance.
SLIDE EIGHT: [J-11 block diagram]
J-11 bus capacitance is reduced because of sharply shortened
interconnect distance. Another significant benefit of CMOS is
its ability to drive capacitive loads. As a result, two 22-line
buses are run at 200 nanosecond bus instruction time.
SLIDE NINE: [Impact of Modular Design: 82C55A and 82C37A]
The circuits pictured are the 82C55A and the 82C37A.
were created using modular standard cell design.
Both
Modular design is a proven vehicle for creation of LSI
products and it supports migration to advanced processes like
SAJI V. As a result of modular design, we can shrink these
products to our new double metal CMOS emd realize a 40 percent
area reduction without redesigning or doing hand re-layout of the
product. Also, the LSI creation becomes a building block for
highly integrated peripherals.
SLIDE TEN: [Highly integrated communications interface]
Another good example of modular design is this highly
integrated communications interface. These functions, created
with modular design techniques, can be easily incorporated into a
multi-function, single chip device that saves board space and pin
count. This interface is a 68-pin device that replaces
components with a total pin count of 218.
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SLIDE ELEVEN: [List of LSI SuperCells]
PERIPHERAL CIRCUITS:
82C37A
DMA controller
82C52
UART/BRG
82C54
Programmable Interval Timer
82C55A
Parallel I/O
82C56A
Multifunction UART
82C59A
Priority Interrupt Controller
BUS SUPPORT CIRCUITS:
82C82
Octal Latch
82C83
Octal Latch (Inv.)
82C84A
Clock Generator
82C85
Static Cloclc Controller
82C86
Octal Bus Transceiver
82C87
Octal Bus Transceiver (Inv.)
82C88
Bus Controller
82C89
Bus Arbiter
DATA COMMUNICATIONS;
HD15530....Manchester Encoder-Decoder
HD15531....Manchester Encoder-Decoder
HD4702
Baud Rate Generator
HD6402
UART
HD6406
UART/BRG/MODEM Control
HD6408
Manchester Encoder-Decoder
HD6409
Manchester Encoder-Decoder
MEMORY;
IK RAM
Reconfigurable RAM
IK RAM
Reconfigurable RAM
SLIDE TWELVE: [Impact of System Integration]
The impact of system integration can be clearly seen here as
system size shrinJcs by a factor of 6. The functions on these two
6X12 inch boards can be integrated into the 4x6 board with
surface mounts on each side.
This could not be done without using modular design, CMOS
process and advanced packaging techniques.
SLIDE THIRTEEN: [CMOS for harsh environments]
The real world of industrial controllers is one characterized
- 8-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
by contaminants such as dirt, dust, oil; extremes of temperature
and humidity; and vibration — a real "board buster."
This product shows the benefits of rugged computers sealed off
from harsh environs. Future systems are certain to need the same
"tough hide" made possible by the low power, low heat operation
of CMOS and lean, intractable PLCC and LCC packaging.
SLIDE FOURTEEN: [Hewlett-Packard's The Portable]
The HP-110 is another example showing the impact of CMOS on
system packaging, power supplies and portability.
A nine-pound, notebook-sized computer that offers the power
and capabilities of a desktop computer and runs on batteries so
it can run with you — certainly a strong case for highly
integrated CMOS systems.
SLIDE FIFTEEN: [summary]
The use of CMOS processes. Design Automation and advanced
Packaging techniques will open new markets and applications for
the electronics industry, and bring the significant benefits of
increased integration to conventional applications. The
development of these converging technologies ensures growth and
continuing innovation for the "Information Age."
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Acceleration Rate
of Integration
moM.r ifmannte
INTEQIUTION
LEVEL
/VACUUM
i^
1*M
TECHNOLOGIES CONVERGE
CMOS
DESIGN
AUTOMATION
HIS
PACKAGING
TO DRIVE HIGHLY
INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CMOS
DRIVING FORCES
POWER
• — •
_
_
_
CMOS
FUNCTION
SPEED
^
DESIGN AUTOMATION
DRIVING FORCES
HIERARCHAL
SOFTWARE
•
—
•
—
—
_
^ ~ ~ " " ~ - — . ^
'
NETWORKED
SYSTEM
_^
•
MODULAR
DESIGN
^
DESIGN
AUTOMATION
- 11 -
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
PACKAGING
DRIVING FORCES
SURFACE
MOUNT
__
HIGH PIN
COUNT
"
SYSTEM
INTEGRATION
PACKAGING
HIGHLY INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
». a convergence of technology forces
- 12 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
J11
BASE
CONinOL
CHIP
J11
OATA
CHIP
a
-
IMCIM WMTMICnOM HM
J11
CONTftOL
CHIP
1
J11
CONTIIOL
CHIP
a
.
M\irtO *IKHUUAT» H M
- 13 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
IMPACT OF MODULAR DESIGN
82CS5A
82C37A
HIGHLY INTEGRATED
COMMUNICATIONS INTERFACE
I/O
•2C55A
S2CS4
INTERVAL
TIMER
no
S3C5M
CONTROL
LOGIC
I/O
HO-64106
UART-i)RG
PIC
I/O
SN 74225
FIFO
a2C84A
OSC.
I/O
- 14 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
IMPACT ON SYSTEM INTEGRATION
THE SEALED ENVIRONMENT
REAL WORLD OPERATION
- 15 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
THE PORTABLE
HIGHLY INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
• Now practical through evolution of Icey
technologies
• Pervasive impact on next generation
systems
- 16 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(IDa Dataquest
Dataquest
PAST CMOS:
KEY TO VLSI PERVASIVENESS
Dr. T. J. Rodgers
President
Cypress Semiconductor
Dr. Rodgers has been the President and Chief Executive Officer of Cypress
Semiconductor Corporation since its founding in 1983. During his nine
years in the integrated electronics field, he has held positions as
Static RAM Product Manager at AMD and Manager of Memory Development at
AMI. Dr. Rodgers received an A.B. degree in Physics and Chemistry from
Dartmouth College, where he was a Sloan Fellow; and M.S.E.E. and
Ph.D.E.E. degrees from Stanford university, where he was a Hertz Fellow.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, GA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WORLDWIDE WSTS SHIPMENTS
INTEGRATED CIRCUf
(IBILLIONS)
1982
1983
1984
1965
196e
1987
WORLDWIDE WSTS SHIPMENTS
DIGITAL CMOS
($BILLlOh6)
1982
1983
1984
1965
1966
1987
- 1 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Pari< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WORLDWIDE WSTS SHIPME^^S
DIGITAL BIPOLAR
(IBILLIONS)
1982
1963
19S4
1985
1966
1987
MEMORY MARKET Sh^RE
(DATAQUEST)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1956 1987 1988
• BiPaAR
• JSMCS
n CMOS
YEAR
-
2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
4K STATIC RAM PRICE VERSUS SPEED
SPEED COMPANIES TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT ASP(1983) ASP(1965)
100/10474
J20.00
$10.00
3
ECL
ISTS
100/10474
$15.00
3
ECL
$750
25nS
2148/9
$5.50
HMOS
35nS
3
$3£5
2148/9
$4.00
HMOS
45nS
6
$2.65
2148/9
$2.75
HMOS
55nS
11
$2.00
$2.35
7QnS
HMOS
2148/9
11
$1.80
$1.90
2114A
NMOS
150ns
2
$1.60
2114
$1.25
NMOS
200nS
15
$1.15
2114
$0.90
NMOS
450nS
15
$1X)0
GATE DELAY VERSUS YEAR
m 2
1975
1975
1974
1977
1976
1979
1978
195-5
1981
1980
1982
YEAR
- 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CYPRESS PRODUCT STRATEGY
-- FAST 1K RAtvIS -ORGANIZATION
SPEED
POWER
POWER-SPEED PROD
ESD PROTECTION
ALPHA SENSITIVITY
DIE TEMPERATURE
BIPOLAR
NMOS
CMOS
256X4
35NS
155mA
27nJ
<400V
HIGH
135C
256X4
25NS
120mA
15nJ
>1000V
NONE
123 C
256X4
15NS
SOmA
6nJ
>2000V
NONE
1050
FAILURE RATE VERSES POWER
500
400
RATE
] K RAM IN THREE TECHNOLOGIES
BIPOLAR
F=Foc -Ea/KT
Ea=1eV
0
420
eeo
POWER (MW)
653
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ELECTROSTATIC DISCHARGE
8000-.
7000-
eooo5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
VOLTS 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
PIN NUMBER
CMOS 16K REGISTERED PROM
COMPARED TO BIPOLAR
PARAMHER
SPEED
POWER
SUPPLY TOLERANCE
ESDPASSvaTAGE
CHIP SIZE
CMOS
35nS/15nS
495mW (PLASTIC)
10%
>2000V
19;200SQMLS
BPOLAR
40nS/20nS
971mW(CERDP)
5?:
-20QV
29.700 SQ MILS
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
TELECOMMUNICATIONS IMPACT OF SEMICONDUCTORS
Marisa Bellisario
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer
Italtel Group
Marisa Bellisario is Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the
Italtel Group. Prior to joining Italtel, Ms. Bellisario was President
and Chief Executive Officer of Olivetti Corporation of America.
Formerly, she was in charge of Product Planning and Operations Planning
at General Electric Information Systems Italia and at Honeywell
Information Systems Italia. She began her business activities in 1960 at
Olivetti Divisione Elettronica. Ms. Bellisario graduated in Economics at
Turin.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Si
TELECOMMUNICATIONS IMPACT OF SEMICONDUCTORS
Sis Conference
San Dlegot October 16, 1984
Marlaa Bellieario
Managing Director and CEO, Italtel
Ladlaa and gentlemen,
good afternoon and thank you for inviting me to speak on the
Impact
of semiconductors on the telecomiDunicatlons industry: a
topic which, of course, is one of the top priority issues on my
agenda. I am in charge of Italtel, the largest Italian manufacturing company in the telecommunications Industry and part of the
Iri-Stet Croup.
In Italy, Italtel holds fifty-two percent of the market, in terms
of installed lines; in Europe, our share amounts to nine percent
and accounts for three percent of the worldwide market. Total
consolidated sales for 1983 amounted to 1,100 billion lire*. Last
year, we recorded a 10 billion lire profit**, while in the previous years our losses were substantial.
The company's performance in the first six months of 1984 confirm
this positive trend: consolidated sales Increased by 20 percent,
compared to the first semester of 1983; consolidated profit amoun-
*
725 million dollars at the 1983 average exchange
rate.
** 6.6 million dollars at the 1983 average exchange
rate.
- 1 Dirtiiont Holuiofil CtUrn* IttiWI
tOlB4 MIIlno < Vi* A di ToCqutVlII* I t - Ml. 43BaMSa • 436*5393 - Mlox 914640 • Ftuimll* (gruppo 3 CClTT) (OJ) 438S$37B
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
ted to 16»3 billion lire* growing by 27 billion lire** compared to
the first 8lx months of 1983.
Telecommunications are undergoing a radical change: the telephone's
functions
and
services
are
no
longer
limited
to
voice
hattdling. Data processing Is also rapidly changing together with
the role of computers. In fact, today's increasingly sophisticated
and
powerful
computers
number-crunching
until
The
today
calculators
have
Integration
it&portant
are merely
led
that we
lives, are beginning
is just
Europeans
evolution of the
of the Forties. Two worlds, which
separate
process
the direct
beginning.
have
invented
to merge.
However,
a
it
specific
is so
term
to
define it: "telematics". You can't find "telematics" In an American dictionary: I've been told that the nearest translation could
be "customer
premises
equipment". However, In my
opinion, this
definition is still inadequate, since telematics Is an all-encompassing concept.
The starting point for the integration between telecommunications
and data processing is microelectronics, I.e. silicon. Here, a few
hundred miles from Silicon Valley, is one of the two technological
*
9.B million
dollars
at
the average
exchange
rate
for
first
dollars at
the average
exchange
rate
for
first
semester 1984
**
16 million
semester 198A
- 2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
aources which
are the driving forces behind the transformation
and evolution of manufacturing processes, products and applications. At the risk of hurting someone's national pride, nay I
remind you that the other technological source, equally Important,
also faces the Pacifici Japan.
I an here to speak on the basis of my experience In telecommunications. However, I am also here to meet people and gather firsthand information on work In progress In the silicon Industry and
on the fast pace of technological change. This type of contact is
esseiitlal In order to keep up with the state-of-the-art
in a
market where competition Is global and requires a new relationship
between vendors and buyers.
Let me highlight
some facts on telecommunications. This slide
shows the breakdown per area of the world market for private and
public telecommunications
systems: these are our estimates for
1985, which is practically today.
The United States are first In terms of the number of telephones
lostallsd. They
also outrank other countries when taking into
account the telephone density, i.e. the number of telephones as
percent of population, as this slide illustrates. However, as far
as the number of subscribers Is concerned. Western Europe Is ahead
of the United States by 3.5 million. Taking Into account subscriber density, the united states are again in first place.
The number of subscribers and/or telephones Is a well-established
Indicator
also
for assessing
a country's economic and social
situation. This slide compares each area's subscribers, as percent
of total world subscribers, with its GNP, as percent of total
world GMP. Telephone penetration will continue to be a useful
Indicator even when. In the near future, telephones will evolve
- 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Into telematlc terminals or integrated workstations handling every
type of infomtatlon (volce» datat texts, laagee. graphs).
The following slide ranks the worldU major telecom manufacturers
in terms of equivalent lines produced. These are our estimates,
although based on official data available at year-end 1982. Let me
stand up for Europe by pointing out that six out of twelve companies
are European
or operate
in Europe. Moreover
Itt's main
production sites are in Europe.
Through a simple addition we learn that» in 1982, five companies
belonging
to ECC-member
countries
(Siemens,
Plessey/GGC, Italtel* Philips) produced
Alcatel
5.6 million
Thomson,
equivalent
lines, which is close to 6.1 million produced by At&t. If we add
to the EEC total the 1.8 million lines manufactured by Ericsson
(which has many subsidiaries in the ECC countries), the European
grand total Is 7.4 million, which ranks Europe as the world's
first by a significant margin.
Japan's overall 1982 production totalled 2.6 million equivalent
lines: a much lower level than the European one. However Japan has
already achieved full co.'ordination so that all Japanese firms
manufacture the aame systems.
These figures are a clear indication of the role of the "Europe of
Telecommunications"
in
the
industry's
evolution
and
of the
ever-Increasing importance it will have in the future.
To assess the impact of semiconductors on telecommunicatlona, let
ne highlight the transformation process which networks are now
undergoing. The evolution towards digital technologies has just
started: the slide shows the number of digital exchanges, as
percentage of total exchanges* installed in 1982 in four European
countries. The US figures are included for comparison.
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
The following «llde lists the public switching systems presently
installed or being field tested: the first aeml-electronlc exchange dates back to 1965 ( these exchanges, as we have seen,
handle a significant share of the telephone traffic In the United
States).
The first central-control electronic exchange was introduced in
1977. The Implementation of fully digital exchanges, mainly of the
distributed control type, is a current event.
As you can see, the bottom of the list Is very short: it Includes
one of Italtel's products, the Proteo UTlO/3, which has completed
final acceptance
tests on the part
of
the Italian operating
company : thirteen of these exchanges have already been shipped ,
to be installed in the Italian network. We produce the UTlO/3 in
our plants in Mllano and Palermo (in Sicily) and, during 1984,
have
recorded
some
significant
successes
abroad:
Cuatemala,
Mozambique and Albania have chosen our system to modernise their
telecommunications
network
for
an overall value
of about 80
billion dollars.
Compared to the United States, Europe was late in beginning the
transformation to digital switches, but it is rapidly recovering
ground, as you can see in this slide, which traces Europe's plans
compared to that of the United States. The transformation rate
varies among the five countries with Prance leading the way.
However both Italy's and the UK's curves are also quite steep.
Investment plans for telecommunications are quite substantial in
major European countries: for instance, the Italian P.T. Telecommunications Plan provides for Investments amounting to approximately 2,300 million dollars per year in the next 10 years; the
French Post Office expects to Invest about 2,900 million dollars
per year until 1966. whereas, for the same time span, the German
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
F.T. le estimated to invest some 4,100 million dollars per year.
Most of these expenses will be concentrated on the implementation
of networks; Italy, for example, will allocate to networks and
exchanges about 80 percent of total telecommunications investments
forecasted.
The ehlft to digital technologies appears to be slower and less
extensive
in
the
United
States
compared
to the main European
countries. In fact, as we have previously mentioned, the United
States have already heavily Invested in semi-electronic systems to
ensure efficient service and adequate returns in the next years.
Let me go on to examine the effects of semiconductors on telecommunications
manufacturing
companies.
As
far
as
products
are
conce'rned, European companies are the main consumer* of eemlconductora ( at percentage of total semiconductor consumption) today
and In the next four years. Telecommunications systems and equipment absorb, this year, 23 percent of all semiconductors consumed
In Europe, as opposed to 14 percent In the United States and 9
percent in Japan.
The European consumption rate is, as you see, higher than that of
the US and Japan. This means that the European innovation rate is
higher
(as confirmed by the previous elide, which showed network
implementation plans In varlona countries). But,
It also means
that ve Europeans are behind in absolute terms. Consequently, we
need to push Innovation much further. In absolute values,
United
the
States will continue to outrank Europe: Its 198A telecom
semiconductor consumption is 70 percent greater than the European
one*
* 1690 million against 977 million dollars.
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Furthermore, European countries have also chosen
to give priority
to renewing networks, all handled by individual Ptt's, with less
emphasis to developing teletnatlc systems/services/Products. This
is confirmed by Europe's 1984 consumption values of semiconductors
for telecommunications, which is 3 percentage points greater than
the semiconductor consumption for computers and terminals.*
The consequences of microelectronics In the factories are negative
for total employment but positive as far as professional skill Is
concerned. Let's take as example the case of three European countries, In which telecommunications companies started to shift to
microelectronics In the mld-seventles. The slide shows how total
personnel has decreased by about 30 percent, affecting mainly blue
collars.
Telecom companies, In fact, need more technicians, researchers,
specialists, systems engineers and less blue collars. This Is
confirmed by our experience: we reduced total personnel by 6000
employees In the last three years. Today we are slightly less than
21,000 and our plans provide for an additional reduction of about
4,000 people in the next two years.
The
change
In personnel mix
is another major consequence of
microelectronics: today Italtel employees are 50 percent white
collars and 50 percent blue collars; while, three years ago, the
breakdown was quite different. 10 percent of our total workers are
engaged In research and development activities today , compared to
8 percent in 1960. Globally, Italtel's research and development
staff totals 2,000 persons, which Is the largest R and D group in
Italy and one of the first in Europe.
* 23.2 percent against 20 percent
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Silicon-based microelectronics reduces added value up to lO-fold,
while R and D expenses Increase: approximately
.5 to 1 billion
dollars and 5 to 8 years are required for developing a complete
line
of digital
switching
systems. Time
span and costs will
Increase with the future generation of products.
A strategy focusing on Intercompany alliances and rationalization
of supply Is therefore necessary In order to share R and D investments among several markets and to achieve economies of scale.
This will Improve competitiveness in terms of price, while, as far
as technology is concerned, we Europeans already have and master
it.
1 have spoken of "we Europeans". However, the Europe of telecommunications ia made up of ten different entitles, none of which
can Individually compete, presently or in the future,with American
or Japanese companies.
I am convinced that Europeans should start to work together on
very specific technical and/or market objectives without excluding
beforehand alliances with American companies, A first relevant
example of this strategy
is the agreement between the PTs of
France and Germany, on the one hand, and Siemens, Philips and
Alcatel Thomaoni on the other, to develop and deploy the same
cellular mobile radio system, we are presently negotiating an
agreement with Alcatel Thomson In France and with Siemens in
Garmany. We have a long-standing cooperation with Siemens for
FABXB
and public packet switching networks. We have also begun
exploratory talks in the U.K.
With this fitep-by-seep strategy* In the next three to five years
we could achieve a commonality of parte and sub-systems accounting
for 15 to 20 p^rr«rit of s whole awiLwliius system.
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
The alliance among Europeans should be coupled with alliances and
Joint ventures with high-tech companies, notably those based on
both coasts of the Pacific, which can supply advanced products and
technologies for specific market segments. We at Italtel, for
instance, In 1962 signed with Gte an agreement aimed at jointly
developing digital public switching
systems. Our co-operation,
which also Includes Telettra (the other Italian telecotmnmunicatiotts company , is going well. As far as private telecommunications are concerned, we implemented a "cocktail strategy" choosing
small high-tech American partners who can supply the most advanced
technologies and products. The objectives of these alliances, or,
for
that matter, of
any
industrial
alliance, are additional
markets and new, advanced technologies.
The challenge of tomorrow for telecommunications, transformed by
microelectronics, involves willingness to innovate and to face
tough competition, flexibility in structures, products and production processes. Moreover it requires en open approach to potential
partners, whatever
their nationality.
The
agreements
between
At&t-Phllips and At&t-Olivettl are only the latest examples of
alliances] they are the proof that the telecommunications market
is expanding
and merging with
information handling and data
processing.
This final slide illustrates the evolution we forecast in the
structure of the world market for telecommunications and data
processing. As you can see, the greater market share for the
Nineties
is
represented
by
integrated
information
systems,
encompassing the whole set of user interfaces.
Perhaps, beginning with the next decade, our Dataquest friends
will be able to organize conferences using telecommunlcaclons or,
better still, telematics systems: we will probably be able to
communicate without moving from our offices.
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
This hypothesis
microelectronics,
creativity
is technically feasible thanks to silicon-based
coupled
with
the
resources, technologies
and
of people in telecoofflunicatlons, data processing and
electronics. This will also help to solve the perennial problem of
updating
and
re-arranging
ny
schedule. However
I
expect
that
airlines restaurants and hotels as nice as this one won't be so
enthused.
Thank you.
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
SIS Conference
Teiecommunications impact
of
Semiconductors
Marisa Bellisario
San Diego - Oct. 16,1984
AttaHel
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
World Telecom Market
(1985)
Africa
1%
Oceania
1.6%
Latin America
.3%
Asia
15.6%
Europe
37.6%
North America
41.2%
Total: $ 80 billion
AKaKel
Telephones
(in millions -1982)
.
Latin America
Oceania
OA A
10
^ -^
Other
24.1
West
159.4
North America
198.8
Europe
Total: 524.2 million
- 12 -
ARaKei
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Telephones per 100 Population
(1962)
77.26
m
43.28
North
America
Western
Europe
Subscribers
Japan
AttaHel
(in millions -1982)
Oceania
Africa
6.6
3.9 —
Nortli America
104.5
Latin America
15.5
Other
17.6
West
107.9
Japan
42.5
Europe
Total: 330 million
AltaHel
- 13 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A C . Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Subscribers per 100 Population
(1982)
40.59
35.95
29.31
North
America
Western
Europe
Japan
AttaHel
Subscribers and GNP
(1982)
North America
Western Europe
Japan
Oceania
Eastern Europe
Asia*
Latin America
Africa
Subscribers
31.7
32.7
12.9
2.0
9.5
5.3
4.7
1.2
Total 100
QNP
27.5
29.6
10.1
1.6
14.8
7.0
6.3
3.1
100
^without Japan
AltaKel
- 14 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
World Public Switching Market
(1982)
Market
share
At&t
itt
Siemens
LM. Ericsson
Alcatel Thomson
Fujitsu
Nippon Electric
Piessey + Gee
Gte (USA)
Italtel + Gte (1)
Northem Telecom
Philips
Equivalent
lines (000)
6100
2800
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1100
820
630
600
450
29
14
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
20500
Total 100
(1) Gte Italia and Balglum
A Italtel
Switching Techniques
(equivalent lines-Jan. 1984)
France
FRO
Italy
UK USA
E/mechanical
63
98
98
70
36
Semi-electronic
23
1
27
59
Digital
14
TotallOO
5
100
100 100 100
A Italtel
- 15 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Public Switching Systems
(first installation or field test)
SEMI-ELECTRONIC
1ESS
At&t
1965
CENTRAL CCNTROL
E10
DMS 100/200
System X
EWSD
AXE 10
GTD-5
D60/D70
CIt Alcatel
Northern Telecom
Plessey/Gec
Siemens
Ericsson
Gte
Nec/FMjitsu
1977
1980
1981
1P81
1982
1982
1983
DISTRIBUTED CONTROL
5ESS
1240
UT10/3
At&t
Itt
Italtei
1983
1983
1984
A Italtei
Digital Networic
Implementation Plans
(equivalent lines)
France
2000
years
- 16 -
AKaKel
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Telecom
Semiconductor Consumption
(as % of total semiconductor consumption)
%
30EUROPE
2048 M$
20
977 M$
NORTH AMERICA
3556 MS
1691 M$
JAPAN
10-
—
1464 M$
694 M$
1
1984
Europe
t
I
19
years
• ^ Japan
North America
Altaltel
Personnel in Telecom
Manufacturing
UK
France
Sweden
77
17 -
78
79
80
years
Altaltel
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
White Collar / Blue Collar
Italtel
1984
1980
33%
67%
50%
50%
Telecom and DP A Italtel
Worid Market
1980
1985
1990
Public
Networks
Public
Networks
Public
Networks
^ —
Telephones
PABXs
DDP
Integrated
Private
Networks
Telematics
Systems
and Products
lis'
WP
I/O
other
other
Storage
Systems
'Intsgrattd Information System*
Altaltel
- 18 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A C . Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
Dataquest
IDEAS AND THE PROLIFERATION OF TECHNOLOGY
Everett M. Rogers
Professor of Cc»ninunications
Stanford University
Dr. Rogers has been teaching and conducting research on technological
innovations for ten years at Stanford University. He was previously on
the faculties of the University of Michigan, Michigan State University,
and Ohio State University. Dr. Rogers is author of numerous books and
articles on communications and innovation, including Silicon Valley Fever
(1984), co-authored with Judith K. Larsen. Dr. Rogers is also co-founder
with Dr. Larsen of Cognos Associates in Los Altos, California, a firm
specializing in research on the impact of technology, and on the process
of technology transfer. He received B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from
Iowa State University.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
IDEAS AND THE PROLIFERATION OF TECHNOLOGY
Judith K. Larsen
Senior Research Scientist
Cognos Associates
Dr. Larsen is a Senior Research Scientist with Cognos Associates in
Los AltoSf California. Her research focuses on the social impacts of
technology and on public policy affecting the electronics industry.
Previously, she was Principal Research Scientist at the American
Institutes for Research.
She began her career as an engineer at
Philco-Pord Corporation. Dr. Larsen has written many journal articles
and well as technical books. Silicon Valley Fever, co-authored with
Everett M. Rogers, presents an overview of living and working in Silicon
Valley. She received a B.A. degree from Gustavus Adolphus College, an
M.A. degree from Syracuse University, and a Ph.D. degree from the
University of California.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CREATING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR IDEAS
I. The proliferation of ideas
A. Development of ideas and knowledge in semiconductor industry
- Great
expansion of field.
The limits of the technology are being
blown out. Increased capability of technology.
- Growth in demand
- In
an
industry
that's
still
developing,
there
are
more
opportunities to pursue than any one company can possibly follow. Impossible
for one company to develop all aspects of a technology.
- Multiple development possibilities that are good possibilities
- Shortage of people is biggest barrier to more idea proliferation
B. Attitude of existing semiconductor companies
- Vnienever a company gets est:ablished, its o%m existence becomes its
main purpose. So it continues to support what it has done well in the past.
- Would be foolish not to, but supporting past traditions/procedures
often is incompatible with developing new ideas in new or undeveloped area.
II. Silicon Valley factors supporting proliferation of ideas
A.
Job
mobility.
High level of employee turnover works to
encourage
development and exchange of new ideas.
B.
Strong support network/infrastructure. Easy to find machine shop or
assembly company that will do small Jobs at competitive prices.
C.
Agglomeration. Location of companies in geographically concentrated
area.
D. Location in proximity to potential customers. Silivon Valley's wellestablished electronics companies are prime markets for new products.
- 1 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
£. Resources. Pool of experienced high-tech engineers and mangers. They
know
the business.
Most new ventures don't have an immediate need for lots
of employees; rather they need expertise.
F. Venture capital. Perhaps most important: money.
III. Incentives for the Individual and the proliferation of new ideas
A. $
B. Leave problems in current job. It's a matter of desperation for some
people. They get laid off or view their current job as uncertain,
C.
Role models.
The penalty for failure is so low and the examples of
what can be done are so many.
D.
"After
Challenge.
seven years,
dealing
Desire
to
climb out of ruts and break
old
routines.
things at my previous job were getting regular.
with the same set of competitors and %rith a lot of the
same
I was
faces
and problems."
- Elements of challenge include unabashed pleasure in what they do.
IV. Developing new ideas outside the existing company
A.
Introduction.
ideas/technologies:
product;
find
There
are
two
ways
(1) Come up with a new idea;
a marlcet for it.
of
developing
new
turn it into a commercial
(2) Take an existing idea/technology (from
the last place you worked, usually) and improve upon it. The second strategy
has the greater likelihood of success,
primarily because the market already
exists for a product that is being sold.
B. Ideas/technologies.
- New developers are at the front end of the technology, where there
is generally an excess in demand.
The excess in supply of semiconductors is
usually more characteristic of the middle or end of the technology.
- 2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
- New developers are in markets ignored by large firms.
C. Incentives for developing ideas in new setting
- Coimnunications are simple
- Bureaucracy
is
minimal.
Smaller groups of technical people
can
develop products more 4tiickly. The bigger you get, the more you tend to have
a bureaucratic framework that slows you down.
- Employees are highly motivated.
- Knowledge
successful.
that
rewards
are great if the
company's
product
is
Nickel-end-dime founder stock is hard to beat.
D. Experience. "We have a couple of things going for us in this company
right now that makes it easier. We've done it before, and the second time is
easier.
The
first time around,
we did a lot of things right and a lot
of
things wrong. If you remember the things you did right, you do them the same
way; if you remember the things you did wrong, you may not do them right the
second time, but at least you'll do them differently."
- Establishing
and
credit,
making contacts with vendors and customers,
selling a new product are all easier the second
time
around,
largely
because of the people's reputations.
E. Origins of founders. Although one inight
from working for a small company to be best,
companies
Reason
that
may
(more
expect the training provided
founders who worked for larger
than 500 employees) have a slightly higher
be that larger companies often have a successful
the new venture can imitate.
In addition,
success
product
rate.
line
larger companies have gone
beyond "seat of the pants" management and can produce more seasoned
leaders
with a better ability to organize and delegate authority.
F. Problems of technology-driven ventures
-Example
usually
of
mistakes in technology driven
company.
engineers with limited skills in related areas.
Founders
are
Lack of experience
in marketing is usually a critical problem.
- 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
V. Creating an environment for ideas within the existing company
A. Typical scenario:
1. Too much technology
2. Company couldn't or wouldn't develop technology into product.
3. Engineers frustrated after company cast aside technology.
4. Rivals/competitors raid company for top people.
B. Disadvantages faced by mature semiconductor companies
There
companies
are
have
opportunities
exclaiming
are
several reasons why more older and
a
and
difficult
new
time
exploiting
market opportunities.
larger
new
There
technical
is
that large companies should learn to be more
perfectly valid reasons why they are not,
semiconductor
product
little
point
innovative;
in
there
and perhaps cannot be,
more
innovative.
1.
Initial
interesting
to
a
market niche too small.
A market opportunity that
potential for a new company may be too small to be
multi-million dollar corporation.
interesting
Both the management of
company and the small venture are making sensible,
offers
the
large
rational decisions
when
the first declines the market opportimity and the second Jumps at it.
2.
De-<:oupling of development and marketing. Basic research comes from
the lab; development requires a great deal of interaction between the market
and
the firm's design emd manufacturing capabilities.
tend to be long in large companies,
is
Communication
and short in small companies.
difficult to get the design staff to
lines
In large
companies,
it
needs, and
equally difficult to get marketing to appreciate manufacturing's
capabilities and limitations.
first-hand
development
products
or
intensive
at
the
market
In a small venture, people are likely to have
knowledge both of the market and
capabilities.
are
understand
The
key decisions regarding
interface
of
marketing
and
of
new
the
firm's
semiconductor
maniifacturing;
the
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
experienced,
technically-trained
entrepreneur
positioned to make those decisions.
in
one
company
or
is
particularly
Marketing and manufacturing are coupled
a few individuals in a new semiconductor company;
they
are
decoupled
into
well-
two
groups
that
in
a
large
traditionally
have
difficulty conmiunicating with each other.
3. Absence of innovation champions. The successful development of a new
semiconductor
technology
Champions—that
is,
requires
a
"champion**
for
the
individueds who become dedicated to,
innovation.
and even zealous
about, the new opportunity-^o not easily emerge within a large corporation.
And
if
such
company,
an individual does onerge
rarely
in
an
established
semiconductor
does he or she have the muscle or clout to focus resources
or attention sufficiently to succeed in exploiting the technology.
in a small company,
the entrepreneur is the champion,
However,
and has the power to
lead staff to critical development efforts.
4.
Management Reward Structure. In larger companies, management reward
structures place very little emphasis on risk-taking.
placed upon no surprises in operations.
being
%nrong
Rather,
a premium is
In such an environment, the cost of
is much higher to a middle nianager than the reward
for
being
right. So what is the motivation for taking risks?
5. Cost of capital. Most semiconductor companies, large and small, face
capital constraints.
them
than
their
They have more development opportunities available
supply of capital.
High interest rates
situation.
Capital
investment
opportunities that are relatively low risk,
budgeting procedures in large companies tend
to reduce costs or to expand production capacity.
returns,
but
little
neither
unexpected
accentuate
nor
necessarily
undesirable.
this
favor
such as investments
This %d.ll offer
opportunity for dramatic payoff.
to
to
This
The
positive
situation
large
is
firm*s
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
stockholders
are
investments,
not
therefore
expecting
the
company
to
undertake
the large company's decisions are
high-risk
consistent
with
stockholder expectations.
C. Advantages for new semiconductor companies
Just as there are several reasons why large semi conductor companies are
at
a disadvantage at capitalizing on innovation,
that
small
semiconductor
companies are well
there are several reasons
positioned
to
exploit
the
technology.
1.
are
Ability to focus resources.
highly
focused
on
one
Nearly all new semiconductor companies
market niche.
concentrated on a limited scope of activity.
All
of
their
resources
are
Managers, engineers, and sales
personnel are not diverted by the demands of other products, by the needs of
customers
in
improvements
other
in
markets,
nor
existing devices.
by
the
necessity
to
make
continual
The company must be successful
in
its
particular niche. The stubborn commitment and determination for success that
accompanies
this
highly focused effort can overcome
formidable
obstacles
that face virtually every new opportunity.
2.
existing
No existing products or customers to protect.
A new company has no
product base nor customer base to protect.
products
existing products obsolete,
If new
thus making existing purchasers unhappy,
make
these
unhappy customers will be prime prospects for the new venture. To the extent
that
large companies make their own devices obsolete with the
introduction
of new products, it is very often the threat of new ventures springing up in
the market that presses them into action.
3.
Reward
structure.
Just
as
the
reward structure
of
the
large
semiconductor company mitigates against risk-t:aking, the reward structure in
the
new
stock.
venture encourages it.
The payoff is in capital
The overriding motivation is for survival.
appreciation
Resources are
of
carefully
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
deployed,
hours are long,
surmounting
obstacles
efforts are highly focused. The effectiveness in
and the overall productivity of a new
semiconductor
company are extraordinary.
4.
company
Risk of Investment.
Just as the budgeting procedures of the
bias against high-risk,
venture
seeks
such
projects.
high-return investment decisions,
Venture
capitalists
who
large
the new
finance
new
semiconductor companies seek opportunities that hold the promise of creating
five
to ten times the original investment.
high-return
game.
Just
the
Venture capital is a high-risk,
opposite of the game of
allocating
a
large
company's limited capital resources among competing projects.
D. Intrapreneurship in established semiconductor companies.
^fuch
existing
of
the
responsibility for the fate of idea
companies rests with corporate management.
development
within
Review experiences
of
some cases to see what works and what doesn't.
1. Set up venture group under the umbrella of an established company.
2.
Group
is
operations officer,
actually
a
subsidiary group,
manufacturing engineers,
complete
vith
quality control
its
own
specialists,
marketing people, and purchasing agents.
3. Has separate quarters.
4.
just
Each
team member gets a salary,
but also the opportunity to
earn
as much in bonuses if the new product makes a good dent in the market.
Fat bonuses, more than anything else, are incentives to members of the team.
5. Venture must have freedom to choose research paths.
6.
Technological breakthroughs occur when divergent research collides.
Important to have cross-fertilization of research ideas.
7.
blue
Brainstorming
sky ideas.
sessions.
Getting people to challenge each
"All ideas passed through a Darwinism.
Everyone
other's
had
the
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
right
and
unlike
obligation
the
academic
to coimnent on projects.
way
of
doing
things
It was
(you
productive
don't
call
because
me
on
my
inconsistencies and I won't call you on yours), there is no such gentleman's
agreement."
8.
Closer
ties
between research scientists and
product
development
teams.
9.
Visits by corporate executives to labs are critical, and need to be
frequent.
10.
Role
of
research
manager:
(1) Protect
troops
from
corporate
gunfire. (2) Obtain equipment and money. (3) Feed the winning ideas.
E. Predictable problems
- Sometimes
understand
how
management
doesn't
know enough about new
to mesh it with existing product—and
to
technology
to
enthusiastically
support that transition.
- Almost always,
communication is bad between corporation and
venture
group. There is often duplication or overlap of effort.
- Research
In
scientists don't comprehend the "adequacy of the
the fast-moving,
competitive semiconductor Industry,
meet the needs and expectations of the market.
keep working on the product to make it perfect.
the product reaching the market too late,
product."
the product
must
R&D scientists often want to
However, that can result in
or the product may never get into
production.
- Guard
existing
against venture producing technology that is incompatible wlch
technology,
or
new ideas that will obsolete
corporate
products
already on the market.
F. Drawbacks of intrapreurship
- Some think that a corporate venture group will not catch on.
have
to
make
one
special arrangement after another to
retain
"If you
your
R&D
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
people, all your projects become very expensive. It may not be good business
to pursue them.**
-Team
members can't m£ike as much money as they could in a
traditional
start-up.
-Always
the
possibility
the
corporate
parent
will
rescind
their
freedom.
-Corporate venture still gets hung up with corporate bureaucracy.
G. Advantages of intrapreneurship
- "Bigger companies will have to adopt the concept. There is a shortage
of good people,
and more and more of them are moving to start-ups in
other
cities, as well as to local start-ups. If companies don't do a better job of
retraining good people, the entrepreneurs will move elsewhere."
- Ready access to corporate resources
- Extensive sales and distribution network
- Corporation keeps entrpreneurs
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
VI. Summary
A,
Difference between idea proliferation in semiconductor industry and
other industries:
- Explosive growth of Silicon Valley companies
- Failure rate is relatively low in Silicon Valley,
companies
rarely
go out of business;
That's
because
rather they tend to be acquired
for
their technology, equipment, and staff.
- Historically, few banlcruptcies among high-tech firms.
- Original team of foimders is rarely intact after a few years.
greater
the number of founders,
the greater the chance of a split
in
The
the
group. Pairs of founders have the best record of staying together.
- Semiconductor industry characterized by large numbers of companies
entering the industry. New corporations ask tough questions, and in so doing
they
contribute
sources
of
more than their share of discoveries.
innovation,
Not only
are
they also stimulate existing companies to use
they
new
ideas.
- As
types
of
the
technology matures,
vertical
both economies of scale and
integration become more important,
with
the
entering the industry increasing by several orders of magnitude.
in
most
industry
industries
matures.
the rate of entry for new firms
Warning:
Industries
slows
various
cost
of
Therefore,
down
vd.th little or no rivalry
as
the
greatly
resemble public Institutions, complete with insensitive bureaucracies.
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
B. Conclusion
- Best chance of success, whether within existing c(»Dpany or in new
venture: have only
two or three partners. They should be trained in
different fields, and have worked in large companies. The first
product
should be an improvement on an existing and successful product.
- However
there is no formula for success.
- Impossible to predict "right" technology.
- Human beings and their environments are too diverse for a pat
formula to work for everyone.
- So what
to do? Expect to work on a kind
of batting-average
basis. Tou can't expect to be successful in developing all new ideas.
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(Ill/
Daftaquest
Dataquest
EUROPE—A TECHNOLOGICAL BACKWATER?
Malcolm G. Penn
Vice President and Director of the
European Semiconductor industry Service
Dataquest UK Limited
Mr. Penn is a Vice President of DATAQtJEST Incorporated and Director of
the European Semiconductor Industry Service, based in London. He has
18 years of experience in the electronics industry, and has been involved
with all aspects of management, manufacturing, marketing, and uses of
electronic components, particularly semiconductors.
Prior to joining
DATAQUEST, he was Manager of Component Engineering at ITT Europe and held
various operational and marketing functions within ITT Semiconductors.
Mr. Penn received a B.S. honors degree in Electronic Engineering from
Borough Polytechnic University, United Kingdom,
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE—A TECHNOLOGICAL BACKWATER?
Hardly a week goes by nowadays without
further gloom and despondency on Europe.
the world
press pronouncing
"Economic stagnation and political malaise darken the future of a
once proud and powerful continent."
"Europe's escape from inflation—but with commodity prices high, can
it follow the U.S. lead in growth?"
"Falling back in a critical race—old roadblocks and rivalries brake
Europe in the high technology field."
"New jobs—the real American lesson for Europe."
"Semi markets hit 10-year high; but while boosting production
overall, U.S. and Europe will lose market share to the Far East."
At least with that one Europe can take some small comfort that it is
not alone in being criticized.
And now the same story from Dataquest?
Well—let us see.
First of all, I want to confess that I consider myself to be European
and proud of it. Despite the obvious problems and difficulties that
Europe faces, some of which are entirely of its own making, I firmly
believe in a strong and prosperous future for Europe. I do not support
the Other popular consensus that Europe is tomorrow's Third World.
I also fully recognize the enormity of the task ahead and the major
social and structural changes that will have to take place to ensure
success. In the next 20 minutes or so, I would like to share with you
some of my reasons behind this conviction.
Let us first take a look at the status quo..
As all good market researchers should, I conducted a survey recently
on how the average American businessperson perceives Europe. Three main
themes were common;
•
A lost cause—a continent whose transition to a sophisticated
and modern society more closely resembles that of the Stone Age
than of the computer age.
•
A continent whose apparent desire to produce agricultural
products of every imaginable type seems insatiable, the total
cost of which currently runs to some $18 billion per annum to
support a $6 billion surplus of produce.
- 1 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
•
A continent of perpetual industrial strife where workers,
protected and pampered by an overgenecous welfare system, seek
more and more in return for less and less, and where managers
relax secure behind various tariff and nontariff barriers.
Oblivious to all.
As a European, it is easy for me to appreciate these popular myths
surrounding Europe. Indeed, I will go further: I believe there has been
a substantial element of truth to support them.
Western Europe, once proud and world dominant for two millennia, is
currently stagnating economically and faltering politically. There is no
denying this fact. After 30 years of nearly uninterrupted growth, the
so-called "postwar miracle" has all but petered out. The once vivid
dream of a united and influential European coiranunity has shriveled into a
parody of itself: a "not-very-common market" perpetually embroiled in
tacky quarrels over the price of soya beans and pig meat.
In a moment of stark cynicism, the Italian author Luigi Barzini
recently wrote, "We Europeans have been reduced to the role of the Greeks
in the Roman Empire. The most useful function an Italian or a Frenchman
can perform these days is to teach an American or a Japanese the proper
temperature at which to drink his red wine."
In all this, it is vitally important to remember one major difference
between the European and U.S. cultures—that is the European ability to
be frank and openly self-critical and to parody and make fun of oneself.
This is quite contrary to the U.S. culture, where such actions are akin
to betrayal, and where even the most blatant of blunders is rapidly
dismissed as either irrelevant, or, as is more often the case, is
presented as a resounding success.
At first sight, therefore, it is easy to appreciate how a simple
analysis of these facts can lead to the conclusion that Europe is rapidly
becoming an economic and technological backwater. It is also easy to
overlook some of the underlying structural and social changes that have
already occurred over the past few years. It is as a result of these
changes that I believe Europe will arrest its temporary decline, moving
from decadence to renaissance. I also believe that the first results
have already been achieved. But more on that later.
Firstly, it is important to understand some of the reasons that have
led to the present-day European economic demise. Without a doubt, the
cost of two major world wars within 25 years of each other was high. It
left much of Europe heavily in debt and in economic and industrial ruin.
In 1945, postwar Europe was starving. The most immediate priority
was to rebuild agricultural self-sufficiency. The European solution to
sickness, poverty, and homelessness was to construct a complex and
all-embracing welfare state system. Today, true poverty and starvation
- 2 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
have long faded into the forgotten European past—nominal wages in
Western Europe have multiplied by more than 10 since 1960 and real living
standards have quadrupled. Even Europe's millions of jobless have gotten
along reasonably well, with between 65 percent and 95 percent of their
previous wages being paid by the state.
In its wake, this social success has brought with it other problems.
For example, one of the by-products of the welfare system is that it does
not reward success and innovation.
Cossetted by years of social
protection, many Europeans have lost their entrepreneurial attitude and
ability to take the necessary risks in their business or personal lives.
Today's business requires greater risk taking than ever before. By
definition, risk denotes the possibility of failure. In Europe, failure
is still considered a personal and professional catastrophe—in the
United States, merely a setback.
This problem is further aggravated by the flattening of rewards and
by increased job security, even in the case of unsatisfactory
performance. The postwar "brain drain" of frustrated Europeans to the
United States and Canada was a direct result of these phenomena and, in
many respects, was driven by many of the same forces that resulted in the
so-called "Silicon Valley Phenomenon."
All through the 1970s,- European governments behaved with fiscal
abandon. Wages outstripped real growth by 25 percent, social spending
ate up larger shares -of each country's GNP, and industrial production
increased in the EEC by just 7 percent, in contrast with 12 percent in
the United States and 28 percent in Japan.
There is, nowadays, a growing realization in Europe that the pendulum
has swung too far, that some of the postwar programs have now become far
too successful, and that social idealism has not only become too
expensive but actually undesirable and occasionally counterproductive.
One by one, European leaders have now set about rationalizing their
economies and falling in step with the prevailing austerity. Overall, a
general economic realization now prevails, even amongst the most
idealistic and staunch socialist governments, that austerity must be
maintained, despite the howls of protest from the left, strikes—and even
street violence—by the affected workers, and the resultant lack of
popularity.
A new competitive energy is emerging amongst some of the European
companies and governments, together with the growing realization of the
need to compete effectively in a world market. It is my contention that
the excesses of yesterday have now given way to the realities of today.
- 3 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
At this point, I would like to pause and take a look at Europ.e from a
technological point of view. A review of the appropriate statistics soon
indicates that, at the bottom line, Europe's industrial performance has
lagged that of the rest of the world. Let us, for example, take
semiconductor components.
In 1983, Europe consumed some $3.4 billion worth of semiconductor
components, up 6.4 percent from 1982. At the same time, the world market
grew 26 percent. Last year, Europe represented approximately 18 percent
of the world semiconductor market, down from 25 percent some five years
ago.
Again last year, the European-owned semiconductor companies
produced approximately 10 percent of the total world consumption, i.e.,
approximately $1.9 billion. This was down from 21 percent eight years
ago. Counting total production in Europe increases this figure to
$3.1 billion, or approximately 16 percent of the world's consumption.
At face value, all this seems pretty disturbing until three facts are
taken into consideration.
Firstly, the continuing strength of the U.S. dollar versus the
European currencies. In local currency terms, the European market last
year grew approximately 19 percent, with the individual countries growing
from a high of 37 percent (United Kingdom) to a low of 10 percent (France
and West Germany). The U.S. figure was 27 percent. This year's growth
looks like it will turn in at over 35 percent in U.S. dollars or some
55 percent in local currencies. Consumption is much stronger than the
dollar figures give credit for.
Secondly, the "good behavior rule" does not apply in Europe. The
European market is a free-for-all battleground where the U.S., Japanese,
and European companies all fiercely fight each other for market share.
Prices in Europe have been substantially lower than those for comparable
devices in the United States for at least three years now, despite a
17 percent import tariff for most devices. This has had the effect of
stimulating substantial numbers of design-ins of semiconductor components
to replace the more traditional electromechanical solutions. A lot of
these products have yet to reach production status. Again, this has
further depressed the underlying strength of the consumption trends when
measured in value terms.
Thirdly, the European semiconductor companies have traditionally sold
their products predominantly into their own national markets.
For
example, in 1983, the European companies' non-European market share was
only $0.4 billion—less than 3 percent market share. This, again, tends
to undervalue their real growth and production value (due to the currency
distortions) and at the same time points to a very real opportunity for
substantial growth via the export markets, a fact that has not gone
unnoticed by several of the major European semiconductor producers.
- 4 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
It is as a direct result of this new outward-looking policy coupled
with a strong U.S. dollar that we expect to see a substantial improvement
in the growth and performance of t:he European semiconductor companies.
Whilst no one can deny the general conclusion that, from a
performance point of view, Europe has lagged behind the world, I believe
that this has been a problem of implementation, rather than a fundamental
lack of capability. Europe has always been a source of substantial
technological innovation and creativity. I have listed here on this next
slide a few examples, some of which may surprise you. Let me mention
some Others:
•
The first commercial electron-beam microscope
•
The first commercial electronic computer
•
The compact disk
We commonly attribute creation of the integrated circuit to
Jack Kilby and Bob Noyce, and yet, the essential features were outlined
some seven years earlier by the British engineer G. W. A. Duimner. More
than that, in 1957, at the International Electronic Component Symposium
held at the Royal Signals and Radar establishment in Malvern,
United Kingdom, Dummer demonstrated a model of such an integrated
circuit. Although purely a design exercise, that model was not so
different from the circuit patented by Kilby two years later.
Furthermore, the basic planar process fundamental to today's semiconductor technology was developed by a European, Jean Hoerni, when he
worked for Fairchild in 1960. Perhaps the ultimate irony of all lies
vith the ubiquitous TTL, invented in the United Kingdom by P. M. Thomson
(patent number 24222/61).
And yet, in 1983, the U.K. semiconductor companies' worldwide IC
market share was less than 2 percent and that of TTL was effectively zero.
It is not creativity or technological competence that have lacked in
Europe, merely the drive and coromitunent to turn these ideas into
mass-produced, cost-effective products. It is my contention that this
situation can very readily change, and I believe that, in some
significant instances, it has already done so. Fundamentally, it is
attitudes that have to change. In order to be successful in industry
today, it is imperative to consider world markets. And in order to be
successful in world markets, one needs three basic ingredients: the
right products, competitive manufacturing capabilities, and the people to
develop and make these products and to bring them to the world
marketplace with the courage and determination to succeed.
My next slide demonstrates that the international opportunities for
Europe are there and can successfully be exploited. Here, we have
plotted the European and worldwide semiconductor market growth for 1980
through 1983 with a projection for 1984. We have also plotted the
- 5 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
cumulative worldwide semiconductor revenues for all the European-owned
semiconductor
companies,
together
with
the
specific
worldwide
semiconductor revenues of Perranti and SGS. As you can see, both these
companies substantially outperformed the worldwide market growth—and
that in a time period of the worst semiconductor recession the industry
has ever experienced.
Also on the semiconductor front, some of you may be surprised to
realize that Thomson is the world's second largest zener diode
manufacturer, and Philips and Siemens are amongst the world's largest KCL
producers. Though not European owned, but almost exclusively European
staffed and based, ITT is the world's second largest small-signal plastic
transistor manufacturer and, since the early 1970s, has held a world
leadership position in consumer ICs. A fully digital VLSI IC color TV
chip set has been in production in Germany now for over a year, and a
newly announced VLSI IC costing around .$10 adds videotex at roughly
one-third the cost of the comparable conventional semiconductor solution.
In linear ICs, SGS has held a leadership position since the 1960s,
and Ferranti has been producing gate array devices since 1972. Inmos,
the U.K. start-up funded by the British government, has demonstrated
substantial innovation in memories and is poised to follow suit in the
microprocessor area with the much heralded transputer. And finally.
Philips is still by far the number one semiconductor manufacturer and
supplier in Europe and is, in addition, a major world electronic
equipment innovator and manufacturer.
In the electronic equipment field, in addition to Philips, there are
also now many other European success stories. For example, Thomson,
Nixdorf, Sinclair, Olivetti, and Ericsson, to name but a few.
In the automotive market, names such as BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes,
Porsche, and Rolls Royce are still synonymous with style, performance,
and technological leadership.
In the field of military electronics, few people realize that Thomson
is the world's second largest manufacturer behind Hughes, and in
aerospace. Airbus Industrie, a European collaboration, has emerged as a
viable alternative to Boeing's virtual dominance of the civilian airline
market.
The emerging Information industry promises a major opportunity for
Europe, and one where Europe's inherent strengths can readily be
adapted. As I mentioned a while ago, a simple analysis of the current
European performance statistics masks several key leading indicators.
Firstly, some European companies are seriously contending world
leadership—and a few are even setting the pace—in several information
industry segments, and Europeans have a long history of technological
innovation.
- 6 © 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Secondly, European information industry initiatives are backed and
encouraged by stronger public support than in the United States; public
R&D spending has increased by a factor of five in recent years.
Thirdly, Europe's
enormous:
latent
demand
for
the
information
industry
is
•
Europe's GNP is the same order of magnitude as that of the
United States.
•
Europe's population, at 340 millioii
greater than that of the United States.
m
The number of electronics companies in Europe is similar to the
number in the United States.
•
Europe's literacy rate and educational standards are amongst the
highest in the world.
•
Information industry centers of excellence, research institutes
and universities, as well as private and nationalized companies
are emerging.
people,
is
55 percent
A recent EEC study shows that European companies have at least
adequate capabilities in most of the necessary basic information industry
technology segments.
European politicians and business executives are determined to ensure
that Europe remains a factor in information technologies and is not
squeezed out by the United States and Japan. Many also feel a need to
become less dependent on U.S. technology, given the guarded U.S. policies
on technology transfer and high-technology exports.
Certain areas of strength already exist, including videotex,
integrated services digital networks (ISDNs), robotics and related
CAD/CAM, ergonomics, applications software, and even microelectronic
components.
Substantial investments are currently being made in
computational
theory,
artificial
intelligence
(AI),
processor
architectures, distributed systems, and consumer computing devices.
Strong support is being given by the European governments both in
political and financial terms. All of them rank advanced manufacturing
processes, robotics, and factory-of-the-future technology amongst their
R&D priorities. Whilst precise implementation policies may differ, the
overall objectives are similar. France has a centrally planned program
directed and controlled by the French Ministry of Research and Industry.
The United Kingdom, on the other hand, has only minimal planning at the
national level, preferring a diffused, highly decentralized, and loosely
coordinated strategy. The German approach falls in between the two and
is characterized by well-coordinated, close cooperation between the
- 7 e 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
public and private sectors. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are
currently allocating around $4 billion annually in public funding to
electronics and information industry-related R&D.
At the EEC level, a five-year, Europe-wide research program, ESPRIT,
was recently launched, designed to foster pan-European cooperation and
thereby give European information industry companies a better chance to
compete more effectively worldwide by sharing front-end research costs,
providing better cross-fertilization of ideas, reducing duplication, and
pooling resources.
Joint ventures amongst European companies and non-European companies
are becoming more common (for example, the recent decision of Bull,
Siemens, and ICL to create a joint research center in Munich). ICL and
Siemens have tapped the best of both U.S. and Japanese technologies.
Olivetti and Philips have teamed up with AT&T in office automation and
telephone exchanges, and Ericsson and Honeywell are cooperating on PBXs.
Many other cooperative agreements are currently being discussed and, in
addition,
several
European
companies
have
become
involved
in
associations, minor participations, and venture capital investments in
start-up technology-oriented companies in the United States.
In closing, there are several reasons why Europe has not yet met its
full technological potential. Europe has been slow to introduce and
accept technology management as a discipline.
Its expertise in
commercialization
has been lacking, primarily due to
its past
nationalistic market tendencies. In addition, its market skills have
remain unproved outside of Europe.
Lack of basic technology and
innovation has never been a contributory cause.
We believe that these problems are resolvable, and, already, a new
breed of European managers are emerging, managers that are far more
willing to accept the challenges associated with today's high technology,
including the willingness to break the barriers of industrial tradition
and restrictive and inflexible working practices.
In some fields,
leading-edge customers and markets are appearing in Europe. In the
United Kingdom, for example, per capita penetration of personal computers
is higher than in the United States.
The rate of penetration of
videocassette recorders (VCRs) has been equally phenomenal. In 1982, the
U.K. VCR market was only 10 percent smaller than that of the
United States. At leading European automobile manufacturers such as
Volkswagen and Fiat, the level of factory automation already exceeds that
of the leading Japanese producers.
Given the substantial number and variety of information industry
strengths that Europe is nurturing, we firmly expect the European
companies to capture a substantial share of the emerging technology
markets. Any U.S. electronics company that aspires to a global position
must develop its European market simultaneously. Treating Europe as an
incremental market—sometimes with obsolescent domestic products—is
increasingly both unrealistic and injurious.
- 8 C 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW
"ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND POLITICAL
MALAISE DARKEN THE FUTURE OF A
ONCE PROUD AND POWERFUL CONTINENT.'
Newsweek--April 9, 1984
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW (Continued)
"EUROPE'S ESCAPE FROM INFLATION--BUT
WITH COMMODITY PRICES HIGH, CAN IT
FOLLOW THE U.S. LEAD IN GROWTH?"
Business Week--August 27, 1984
- 9 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW (Continued)
"FALLING BACK IN A CRITICAL RACE-OLD ROADBLOCKS AND RIVALRIES BRAKE
EUROPE IN THE HIGH-TECHNOLOGY FIELD.'
Time--August 13, 1994
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW (Continued)
'NEW JOBS--THE REAL AMERICAN LESSON
FOR EUROPE'*
Financial Times--August 14, 1994
- 10 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW (Continued)
"SEMI MARKET HITS 10-YEAR HIGH: BUT
WHILE BOOSTING PRODUCTION OVERALL,
U.S. AND EUROPE WILL LOSE MARKET SHARE
TO FAR EAST."
Electronic Business--August 1, 1984
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW (Continued)
•EUROPE--A TECHNOLOGICAL BACKWATER?'
DATAQUEST--October 17, 1984
- 11 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE--AN OVERVIEW (Continued)
WHERE
ARE WE
NOW?
THE EUROPEAN BACKGROUND
THE PRICE OF TWO MAJOR WORLD WARS
W I T H I N 25 YEARS WAS HIGH:
• HEAVY DEBT
• INDUSTRIAL AND ECONOMIC RUIN
• STARVATION
• POVERTY AND HOMELESSNESS
- 12 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
• TRUE POVERTY AND STARVATION
HAVE LONG GONE.
• NOMINAL WAGES ARE UP TENFOLD
SINCE 1960 (REAL LIVING STANDARDS
UP FOURFOLD).
BUT
IN SOLVING THESE PROBLEMS,
OTHERS WERE CREATED.
THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
• DOES NOT R E W A R D SUCCESS AND
INNOVATION
• E N T R E P R E N E U R I A L I S M STIFLED
• DISCOURAGES RISK TAKING
• FAILURE IS A SOCIAL STIGMA
• POSTWAR "BRAIN DRAIN"
IN ADDITION. EUROPE WAS LIVING
BEYOND ITS MEANS.
.- 13 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE TODAY
• A NEW ERA OF REALISM IS EMERGING.
• ALL EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS HAVE SET
IN PLACE AUSTERITY PROGRAMS.
• REVITALIZED EUROPEAN INDUSTRY
(COMPANY LED) IS EMERGING.
THE EXCESSES OF YESTERDAY HAVE NOW
GIVEN WAY TO THE REALITIES OF TODAY.
WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY PROFILE
1
CONSUMED IN (BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S ;
•
EUROPE
UNITED STATES
JAPAN
REST OF WORLD
TOTAL
2 GROWTH
•82 TO -83
1882
1883
S 32
6.5
4.1
1.0
$ 3.4
8.3
5.6
1.5
26.5Z
36.7Z
40.22
$14.8
SI 8.8
26.02
6.A%
-
- 14 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY PROFILE
PRODUCED BY (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
% GROWTH
•82 TO •83
COMPANES
1982
1983
EUROPEAN
UNITED STATES
JAPANESE
OTHERS
$ 1.6
8.0
5.1
0.1
$ 1.9
9.8
6.9
02
11.7%
22.5Z
36.4%
86.8%
$14.8
$18.8
26.0%
TOTAL
WORLD SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY PROFILE
PRODUCED IN (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS}
EUROPE
UNITED STATES
JAPAN
REST OF WORLD
TOTAL
1982
1983
Z GROWTH
•82 TO ^83
$ 2.7
6.8
4.7
0.6
$ 3.1
8.5
6.4
0.8
11.6%
25.6%
34.7%
42.4%
$14.8
$18.8
26.0%
- 15 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPEAN SEMrCONDUCTOR MARKETS
CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ARE MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE DOLLAR
FIGURES SUGGEST
• CURRENCY DISTORTIONS
• AGGRESSIVE PRICING
• HIGH LEVEL OF SELF-CONSUMPTION
EUROPEAN INVENTIONS AND DISCOVERIES
PRODUCT
COUNTRY
BATTERY
MTERNAL-CCMBUSTION ENGIhE
ELECTRIC MOTOR
CATHODE-RAY TUBE
WIRELESS
DESELENGIhE
X-RAYS
RADIOACTIVITY
TELEVISION
JET ENGINE
RADAR
ITALY
FRANCE
BELGIUM
GERMANY
ITALY
GERMANY
GERMANY
FRANCE
UNTTED KI<IGDOM
UNTTED KNGDOM
GERMANY
- 16 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPEAN INVENTIONS (Continued)
• FIRST COMMERCIAL ELECTRON-BEAM
MICROSCOPE
• FIRST COMMERCIAL ELECTRONIC
COMPUTER
• COMPACT DISK
EUROPEAN INVENTIONS (Continued)
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT
G. W. A. DUMMER
1952
- 17 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPEAN INVENTIONS (Continued)
PLANAR PROCESS
JEAN HOERNI
1960
TRANSISTOR-TRANSISTOR LOGIC (TTL)
P. M. THOMSON
PATENT NUMBER 24222/61
UNITED KINGDOM
- 18 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
M
>1.0v'»:rl.v<-J L
1^1
• II
iL
*
IJLTJJ .hi
ViVy.'.
'•"^'V>v-,,
'i''fe'-iif,^iff^^?|ag:^^
^^^^jKSSSSB^^^^^^SBB^S^^^^^^^^^S^^^^^^^SSS^S^^S^^a^^jm
.y^iSjnSISSi^sff^aSJiEra?;'
STRATEGY FOR SUCCESS
• RIGHT PRODUCTS
• COMPETITIVE MANUFACTURING
• DETERMINATION TO SUCCEED
- 19 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
RELATIVE GROWTH IN SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET
(DOLLARS, BASE 1980 = 100)
240
FERRANTI
200
160
^EUROPEAN COIVlPANIES
120
"'
1980
1981
1982
1983
, <- EUROPEAN
MARKET
1984
EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR
WORLD LEADERSHIP
• THOMSON--ZENER DIODES
• SIEMENS/PHILIPS--ECL
• ITT-INTERMETALL--PLASTIC
TRANSISTORS/CONSUMER ICs
• FERRANTI--GATE ARRAYS
• SGS--LINEAR
• INMOS--MEMORIES
• PHILIPS--NO. 1 SUPPLIER IN EUROPE
- 20 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE--A TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACYELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT
• PHILIPS--BROAD-RANGE MANUFACTURER
• THOMSON--MILITARY ELECTRONICS
• NIXDORF--POINT-OF-SALE EQUIPMENT
• SINCLAIR--HOME COMPUTERS
• OLIVETTI--OFFICE AUTOMATION
• ERICSSON--TELECOMMUNICATIONS
EUROPE--A TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACYNONELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT
• AUTOMOBILES
BMW. FERRARI. MERCEDES. PORSCHE.
ROLLS ROYCE
• AVIONICS
AIRBUS INDUSTRIE
• GOVERNMENT/MILITARY
THOMSON-CSF
- 21 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
• READILY ADAPTABLE TO EUROPE'S
STRENGTHS
• SOME COMPANIES ALREADY CONTENDING
FOR WORLD LEADERSHIP
• STRONG PUBLIC SUPPORT
• ENORMOUS LATENT DEMAND
-GNP
-POPULATION
-ELECTRONICS COMPANIES
-HIGH LITERACY AND EDUCATION
STANDARDS
-CENTERS OF EXCELLENCE
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH-COMMUNICATIONS
FRANCE GERMANY
VIDEOTEX
LOCAL AREA NETWORK
WIDE AREA NETWORK
XXX
XX
XX
XXX
XX
UNITED
KINGDOM
XXX
XX
XX
LEGEND:
XXX INTERNATIONAL CAPABILITY
XX SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED ACTIVITY
X STRENGTH IN SPECIFIC AREAS
- 22 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction P r o h i b i t e d
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH-ROBOTICS AND CAD/CAM/CIM
UNITED
FRANCE GERMANY KINGDOM
LANGUAGES
X
XX
X
SENSORS
XXX
SYSTEMS
X
XXX
MACHINE VISION
X
XX
X
SIMULATION AND MODELING
X
XX
X
:
LEGEND:
XXX INTERNATIONAL CAPABILITY •
XX SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED ACTIVITY
X STRENGTH IN SPECIFIC AREAS
•
•
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH-MAN-MACHINE INTERFACE
FRANCE
ERGONOMICS
FLAT-PANEL DISPLAYS
GRAPHICS DISPLAYS
VOICE SYSTEMS
GERMANY
XXX
X
XX
X
UNITED
KINGDOM
X
X
X
LEGEND^
XXX INTERNATIONAL CAPABILITY
XX SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED ACTIVITY
X STRENGTH IN SPECIFIC AREAS
- 23 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH-SOFTWARE
THEORY OF COMPUTATION
PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES
OPERATING SYSTEMS
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
TOOLS
APPLICATIONS
UNITED
FRANCE GERMANY KINGDOM
XXX
XX
XXX
X
XX
X
X
X
X
XX
XXX
XXX
XX
X
XX
XX
XX
XX
LEGEND:
XXX INTERNATIONAL CAPABILITY
XX SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED ACTIVITY
X STRENGTH IN SPECIFIC AREAS
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTHMICROELECTRONICS
JOSEPHSON JUNCTION
GaAs
VLSI
HARDENED
(MILITARY/SPACE/
NUCLEAR}
FRANCE
GERMANY
X
XXX
X
XX
X
X
UNITED
KINGDOM
X
XXX
X
LEGEND:
XXX INTERNATIONAL CAPABILITY
XX SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED ACTIVITY
X STRENGTH IN SPECIFIC AREAS
- 24 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH-COMPUTER SYSTEMS ORGANIZATION
UNITED
FRANCE GERMANY KINGDOM
PROCESSOR ARCHITECTURE
XX
XX
XXX
DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS
XX
XX
XXX
CONSUMER COMPUTING DEVICES
X
XXX
LEGEND:
XXX INTERNATIONAL CAPABILITY
XX SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED ACTIVITY
X STRENGTH IN SPECIFIC AREAS
STRONG GOVERNMENT SUPPORT-A COMMON THEME
• FRANCE--CENTRALLY PLANNED AND
CONTROLLED PROGRAM
• UNITED KINGDOM--HIGHLY DECENTRALIZED
AND LOOSELY COORDINATED
• GERMANY--CLOSE COORDINATION BETWEEN
PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS
- 25 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EEC ESPRIT
• FIVE-YEAR. EUROPE-WIDE RESEARCH
PROGRAM
• PAN-EUROPEAN COOPERATION
• MORE EFFECTIVE COMPETITIVENESS
-SHARED FRONT-END RESEARCH COSTS
-BETTER CROSS-FERTILIZATION OF IDEAS
-AVOIDANCE OF DUPLICATION OF ACTIVITIES
-RESOURCE POOLING
JOINT VENTURES AND OTHER ASSOCIATIONS
• BULL. SIEMENS. ICL JOINT RESEARCH CENTER
• ICL AND SIEMENS WITH VARIOUS U.S. AND
JAPANESE COMPANIES
• OLIVETTI AND PHILIPS WITH AT&T
• ERICSSON WITH HONEYWELL
• OLIVETTI WITH VLSI TECHNOLOGY
• MANY MINOR PARTICIPATIONS AND VENTURE
CAPITAL I N V E S T M E N T S
- 26 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
EUROPE DOES NOT LACK IN BASIC
TECHNOLOGY OR CREATIVITY.
EUROPE WILL CAPTURE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHARE OF THE EMERGING
WORLD HIGH-TECHNOLOGY MARKETS.
- 27 O 1984 Dataquest Incorporated Oct. 15 ed.-Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(::)aDataqiiest
Abstract
Dataquest Conference Presentation
Semiconductor Equipment: Key to Pervasiveness
W. R. Bottoms
The revolution in electronics has had an impact on the economic
life of the entire free world.
Electronics has indeed become
pervasive in the last ten years. The fundamental driving forces
for the pervasiveness of solid state electronics have been the
decreasing cost of electronic functions delivered and the
increasing value of the applications of those electronic
functions.
There have been many significemt contributors to the
decreasing cost of producing electronic functions beginning with
the physicists and electrical engineers who defined the basic
science upon which the industry is based and continuing with
the circuit designers and the process engineers that have
developed the process technology required to take these
innovative designs from paper into silicon.
During the last few
years, developments in semiconductor equipment have been a major
factor enabling the continued reduction in the cost of
- 1-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
electron functions. Decreasing feature size, increasing process
yields, and the economic advantages of producing in very large
volumes have all been realized through a combination of
innovation in circuit designs and processes and through
developments in semiconductor equipment.
Production equipment
for lithography, etching, metallization and high temperature
processing have all posed limits in the past to the continuation
of decreasing feature size. Solutions to these limitations have
been provided by the semiconductor equipment industry.
Over the next few years the role played by the equipment
industry in the continued expansion of the pervasiveness of
solid state electronics by reducing costs will continue to
increase.
-
2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
vanan
KEYS TO PERVASIVENESS
OF
SOLID STATE ELECTRONICS
DECREASING COST PER FUNCTION
INCREASING VALUE OF APPLICATIONS
TRANSPORTABILITY OF PRODUCTION CAPABILITY
POPULARIZATION OF ELECTRONICS
INCREASED LEISURE TIME
DECREASING COST PER FUNCTION
FEATURE SIZE
DESIGN INNOVATION
PROCESS YIELD
PRODUCTION VOLUME EFFICIENCIES
PRODUCTION LIMITATIONS
FOR SUBMICRON DEVICES
• LITHOGRAPHY
• ETCH
• METALIZATION
• HIGH TEMPERATURE PROCESSING
-
3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
FERTURE
RS R FUNCTION
OF
LITHOGRRPHY TECHNOLOGY
varian
SIZE
IQ
,^<^^*
U
N
t-i
cn
u
^^
3
t(T
U
li.
.5 ~
7A
7G
78
60
82
84
86
86
YEAR
- 4-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
FEATURE S I Z E RS fl FUNCTION
OF
METRLIZRTION TECHNOLOGY
vartan
10
U
N
(-1
-5«0»»
.Rt*"
SP^'l^-'t'
tn
u
Q:
D
cr
u
I-
LI.
74
7G
78
60
62
64
86
88
YEAR
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
vanan
PRODUCTION LIMITATIONS
FOR SUBMICRON DEVICES
HIGH TEMPERATURE PROCESSING
• DOPANT REDISTRIBUTION
• SUBSTRATE DIMENSIONAL INTEGRITY
• MATERIALS COMPATIBILITY
— ALUMINUM
— POLYAMIDE
RAPID THERMAL
PROCESSING
APPLICATIONS
• IMPLANT ACTIVATION
• SILICIDE ACTIVATION
• PSG REFLOW
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
COST PER ^A OF IMPLANT CAPACITY
varian
1.00
rr—I—I—I—I—T
1
1
T
, Sarlal Piac*n
••tcfi Pfoeatt
m
8 0.10
u
0-0l|
1
72;
I
'
74
I
I
I
76
78
Tim* (Vaart)
COST PER 5Q I N C H / H R
1.5
-
10
U
CORTED
jj^«
Q:
I
\
z
o
1
-
in
\
B
7B
?9
.j-u
—
BQ
Ql
82
83
YERR
- 7 -
SOURCE! VRRIflN
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
vanan
DRIVING FORCES FOR THE
INCREASING VALUE OF APPLICATIONS
RISING ENERGY COSTS
EXPANDING COMMUNICATION REQUIREMENTS
INFORMATION EXPLOSION
MILITARY SYSTEMS
RISING ENERGY COSTS
PERCENTAGE PRICE INCREASE
1970 ~ 1983
NATURAL GAS
ELECTRICITY
COAL
OIL
423%
390%
356%
658%
SOURCE: STATISTICAL ASSTRACT OF THE UMTED STATES
- 8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
varian
EXRRNDING
COMMUNICRTIONS
REQUIREMENTS
160
If)
u
O
I
Q.
U
U
150 r
140
LO
130
^
120
-I
110
7
7
100
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
YERR
SOURC£: FCC
U.S. MILITARY IC CONSUMPTION
0
L, 1 I I
82
63
84
85
YEAR
SOURCE:
ICC
- 9 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
vaiian
TRANSPORTABILITY OF PRODUCTION
CAPABILITY
TECHNOLOGY IS IN THE EQUIPMENT
AUTOMATION DECREASES EDUCATION REQUIREMENT
MANPOWER AVAILABILITY
"FREEWHEELING" LICENSING
EQUIPMENT, MATERIALS, SUPPORT, AND FINANCING
AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE FREE WORLD
TECHNOLOGY IS IN THE EQUIPMENT
3180/3190 SYSTEMS
PROCESS DEVELOPMENT
FIRST
PRODUCTION USE
MATERIALS
81
ALUMINIUM
ALUMINIUM ALLOYS
TITANIUM-TUNGSTENALUMINIUM SEQUENTIAL
82
PLATINUM
DOPED SILICON
83
TUNGSTEN AND
TITANIUM SILICIDES
84
TANTALUM AND
MOLYBDENUM SILICIDES
CIRCUIT TYPES
MOS
MOS
BIPOLAR
BIPOLAR
ALL
™ ^
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
vanan
POPULARIZATION OF ELECTRONICS
COMPUTERS IN INSTRUCTIONAL USE IN
U.S. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS
MICROCOMPUTERS
TERMINALS
TOTAL
1980
30,715
21,536
52,251
1982
96,462
24,446
120,908
SOURCE: U.S. NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS
INCREASED LEISURE TIME
ELECTRONIC GAMES
VIDEO EQUIPMENT
CONSUMER AUDIO EQUIPMENT
TELEVISION
R&D RESOURCES OF SEMICONDUCTOR
EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS
EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY SALES $5.58 B
EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY R&D
.46 B
SOURCE: VLSI RESEARCH, INSTAT
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
FERTURE
R S R FUNCTION
OF
FTCH TFCHNOLOGY
vanan
SIZE
10
titt*
^ffst*
SP««*^
crtv*
.?si^
^f^'
i^e iot»
U
N
ttO*
.(*'>='^
t—t
in
u
Q:
13
»d
U
li..
1 ' ^7B
74
78
80
82
84
86
88
YERR
- 12 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(l^aDataquest
Dataquest
SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT:
KEY TO PERVASIVENESS
Dr. W. R. Bottoms
President
Semiconductor Equipment Group
Varian Associates
Dr. Bottoms has been President of Varian Associates' Semiconductor
Equipment Group since 1981. Previously, he served as a member of the
Electrical Engineering Faculty of Princeton University before joining
Varian as Manager of Research and Development. He later became General
Manager of the Varian/Extrion Division. He has also served as Chairman
of the Technical Advisory Subcommittee on Semiconductor Manufacturing
Materials and Equipment for the Export Control Commission of the
Department of Commerce, and is Chairman of the National Research Council
Evaluation Panel for the National Bureau of Standards. In addition, he
has authored many papers on equipment and process technology for the
semiconductor device industry. Dr. Bottoms received his Ph.D. in Physics
from Tulane university.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
THE IMPACT OF WORKSTATION PROLIFERATION
Aryeh Finegold
President
Daisy Systems
Mr. Finegold is a founder of Daisy Systems Corporation and has served as
President and Chief Executive Officer of the company since its
incorporation in August 1980. Previously, he spent four years in various
engineering management positions at Intel Corporation. Prior to that,
Mr. Finegold was with Elbit Computers Ltd., where he held several
engineering positions. Mr. Finegold holds a B.S. degree from Technion
Institute - Israel Institute of Technology.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
THIS PRESENTATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT PUBLICATION TIME.
IF A COPY IS MADE AVAILABLE TO DATAQUEST,
WE WILL MAIL IT DIRECTLY TO YOU FOLLOWING THE CONFERENCE.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest
SERVICE, SOFTWARE, AND SILICON
Wilfred J. Corrigan
President, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer
LSI Logic Corporation
Mr. Corrigan is President, Chairman and Chief Executive Office of LSI
Logic Corporation.
Formerly he was President, Chairman, and Chief
Executive Officer of Fairchild Camera and Instrument Corporation in
Mountain View, California. Before joining Fairchild, Mr. Corrigan was
Director of Transistor Operations at Motorola Inc.'s Semiconductor
Products Division in Phoenix, Arizona. He received his B.S. degree in
Chemical Engineering from the imperial College of Science, London.
Dataquest Incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
LSI LOGIC
CORPORATION
LSILOeiC
CORPORAnON
WHAT DISTINGUISHES THE SUCCESSFUL
SEMI-CUSTOM SUPPLIER
I N TODAY'S M A R K E T . . .
IT IS NO LONGER THE
•T?OMANCE OF THE SIUCON"...
BUT RATHER THE AVAILABILITY
OF COMPREHENSIVE, FULLY INTEGRATED,
EASY-TO-USE, FAST "SOFTWARE"
HE WHO HAS THE BEST SOFTWARE
CONTROLS THE HIGH GROUND.
- 1 Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
CHALLENGE
SYSTEM AND CHIP COMPLEXITY INCREASING
SHRINKING SYSTEMS LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TIMES
ENGINEER SHORTAGE
REQUIRE BIPOLAR SPEED WHH CMOS POWER
LSIUXSIC
CORPORATION
LSI LOGIC MEETS THE CHALLENGE
• HIGH DEIMSnr HCMOS ASICs
- UTIUZING 3 M AND 2 /i GATE
LENGTH AND DUAL LAYER METAL
• COMPUTER AIDED ENGINEERING (CAE)
- UTIUZING OUR PROPRIETARY LDS™
DESIGN SOFTWARE
- 2 -
Dataquest incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.G. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
U l LOGIC
CORPORATION
IMPLEMENTATION
WE CHOSE GATE ARRAYS
AS INITIAL VEHICLE
TO IMPLEMENT CHARTER.
-/
•N
151 LOGIC
CORPORATION
STRATEGY FOR THE 80's
n . ENGINEERING/SOFTWARE
• REGIONAL DESIGN CENTERS
• WORK STATION INTERFACE
• EVOLUTIONARY SOFTWARE (LDS)
/ - GATE ARRAY...SINGLE CHIP
- GATE ARRAY...MULn CHIP
TM / - ZYCAD SUPPORT
LDS
- FAULT GRADING
- STRUCTURED ARRAY
I - STRUCTURED CELL
MAINTAIN ENGINEERING/SOFTWARE LEADERSHIP
& CONTINUE TO SET THE STANDARDS
FOR "ASIC" MARKETPLACE.
- 3
-
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
LSI LOGIC
CORPORATION
THE LDS^** CAE A P P R O A C H
• USER FRIEIVJDLY
2 DAY TRAINIIMG
• EASE OF ACCESS
REGIONAL DESIGN CENTERS
• PROVEN
# DESIGNS COMPLETED
• PORTABLE
WORK STATION INTERFACE
• SYSTEM LEVEL SIMULATION
ZYCAD
PORTABILITY O F LDS'**
• FUNCTIONAL UBRARIES FOR:
- VAUD LOGIC
- DAISY SYSTEMS
- MENTOR GRAPHICS
NOW
NOW
NOW
• VERIFY SOFTWARE FOR:
- MENTOR GRAPHICS
- DAISY SYSTEMS
- V A U D LOGIC
NOW
NOW
NOW
• FULL LDS~ FOR IBM & IBM COMPATIBLE
NOW
• FULL LDS™ FOR D.E.C. VAX
AUGUST '84
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1 9 LOGIC
OORPORATION
f9S2
UK'I TEOAS BASED
unrr OSLAT uMULAnoN
los-i LAraur svsnM
M n SHtOM UVBt
m3-
1984.
LDS"" SOFTWARE
EVOLUTION
MCIAL H Q H O I
l O H I T X X S M BAS£0
ACTUAL SElXy SIMULATION
JM 2 LATER
wnt uetoxjt srsTEMi
METAL
HCMOS
LDSHn tStlH'
•ASeO SIMULAnON
ZttZumsK
SntUCTURCD ARItAr
I LArOLTT SYSTEM
JHUUICHIP S l M U L m O N 'IHSIM
STRUCTURED CELL
MEWL HOMOS
I
HARDUMRE CVEVT
MWULWTQN TSIM'
2|i SmucniREO ARRAirS
2li SmUCTUREO CELL
~*nLATfOUT SYSTEM
FUTune
COMPOSAILE
ARRAYS
m u t r SiMuiAnoN "niM'
nas-
2
3
4
5
«
7
8
RELATIVE TCSIGN SOPHBTICAnON OF RESUITANT PROOUCT
r
•N
LSItOGIC
DESIGN INTERFACE FLEXIBILITY
h
CUSTOMER
WORK
STATIONS It
CUSTOMER
KNG
CUSTOMER
INO
OISTOMER
CNC
/
/
/
PUli. DESIGN
\
A m O U U AND
\
SILICON GUARANTEE \
/rwiott
TO MANUKACTUREV
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
LSIUM3IC
GORPORAnON
LSI LOGIC N O W OFFERS
THREE TYPES O F APPLICATION
SPECIFIC IC PRODUCTS.
• LOGIC ARRAYS
t*^ > N
• STRUCTURED ARRAYS
• STRUCTURED CELL
tavoGK
S^ggSmoN
PRODUCT LINE EVOLUTION
SJO-
SINGLELArES IHEXU
T-4.0g 3.0-
I"-
J^
= >
UPTO • »
TWO LATER MIEIU
LOGIC VtVJUC
n a otCAHA
sn^
UTTO
gPTO I M ^
XM
imtfLIUVCD
ctu
i>
C
UPTO joanMi
03-
THREE LAYER MEIAL
—I
2J
1
1
1
S
10
IS
coMPLExirr OF 2 Mnn
1
20
40
NANO (K)
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
LSI LOGIC
CORPORATION
LOGIC ARRAYS
• ORIENTED TOWARD GENERAL PURPOSE LOGIC USE.
METAL MASK(S) PROGRAMMABLE. LO\X^ST DESIGN COST.
LL 3000 SERIES
H^"-
3S MICRON, ONE^ArER METAL
U . 5000 SERIES
3 MICRON, TWO—LAYER METAL
LL 7000 SERIES
2 MICRON, TWO-LAYER METAL
8000 SERIES —
2 MICRON, TWO-LAYER ME1A1,
HIGH OUTPUT DRIVERS
Lsiuxac
STRUCTURED ARRAYS
• ADDS MEMORY A N D OTHER STRUCTURES TO LOGIC ARRAY.
aRCurrs CONTAIN STRUCTURES SUCH AS RAM, ROM,
ALU'S ETC. P R O G R A M M E D BY METAL AND RECONFIGURABLE.
I N m A L OFFERINGS I N 2 MICRON TECHNOLOGY
PROoua
LOGIC ARRAY
CAFES
RAM
ISA 2001
2700
UA2002
«ooo
2.2KBrrs
iKBir
OUALPORT
4KBrr
ISA 2003
MOO'
ISA 2004
AOOC"
aooi
20004000
tSA2005
ROM
SKBIT
32K-«4K
BITS
- 7 -
OTHER
I/O
AVAILABLE
16 BIT ALU
144
03-84
2oe
03*84
200
32 BIT ALU 222
OPTIONAL
4x2901
OPTIOIMAL 180
oras
04*84
otvs
J
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
STRUCTURED CELLS
• FULL CUSTOM DIFFUSION AND METAL FOR THE MAXIMUM
FLEXIBILmr, DENSITY AND PERFORMANCE. DESIGN ELEMENTS
INaUDE RAM, ROM, PLA, STANDARD CELLS, INTERNAL LOGIC
ARRAYS AND MEGACELLS —VERY COMPLEX FUNCTIONS.
• T U ^ MICRON (LSC20 FAMILY| TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE Q3 84,
SCALABLE TO t.6 MICRON IN 1985 (LSC16 FAMIUT).
• JOINT DESIGN AND SECOND-SOURCE PARTNERSHIP BETMt^EN
LSI LOGIC AND AMD. LSI LOGIC HAS RIGHTS TO CONVERT
ANY AMD CMOS LOGIC IC TO A MEGACELL.
-
8 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
(::)a Dataquest
Dataquest
LSI GROWTH:
1985-1995
Jack Carsten
Senior Vice President
General Manager, Components Group
Intel Corporation
Mr. Carsten is Senior Vice President and General Manager of the
Components Group at Intel Corporation. He joined Intel in 1975 as Vice
President and Director of Marketing.
Previously, Mr. Carsten was
employed by Texas instruments for 13 years, most recently as General
Manager of Tl's MOS Division. Mr. Carsten graduated from Duke University
with a B.S. degree in Physics.
Dataquest incorporated
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONFERENCE
October 15, 16, and 17, 1984
San Diego, California
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company / 1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
LSI GROWTH:
1984-1994
Jack Carsten
Logarithmic growth cannot continue indefinitely.
Whether we examine the multipli-
cation of bacteria, population growth, or the growth of industries, external
limiters eventually prevail. Thus, when I was aslced to examine the long range
outlooic for our industry, I noted that Dataquest had already forecasted world
semiconductors at $175 billion in 1994. This would malce us, in all probability,
the largest manufacturing enterprise in the world, surpassing automobile manufacture, which currently stands at about $120 billion with a relatively low
growth rate.
If a Statistical approach to market projections strains your credibility, as it
did mine, a historical perspective may lend some clues. After a good bit of reading on industrial growth over the past fifty years, it became apparent to me that
the industries which had the most difficulty in gaging growth were the so called
"engine industries," and those end equipments using them.
It occurred to ine that
semiconductors are taking on "engine" characteristics—with most processing applications now microprocessor driven, with control, memory, and analog features all
being utilized in some predictable ratio.
In fact, this is a pattern similar to
that which occurred in the use of internal combustion or jet propulsion engines in
vehicles, or the use of electrical motors in appliances and machines.
- 1 Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
I decided to test a hypothesis that semiconductors are the "engines" of electronic
equipment, especially data processing.
There is a good bit of statistical infor-
mation available on these industries and they have similar characteristics..
I had
data gathered on four "engine" groups in addition to semiconductors, as shown in
Fig. 1.
All of the engine industries had some characteristic patterns, one of which was
high growth.
Discounting inflation, all showed a 10-15X real growth over an ex-
tended period.
There were several phases to their maturation, but saturation of
end usage (though seldom forecasted) inevitably occurred.
Furthennore, their
costs followed learning curve predictions for common manufacturing technologies.
Fig. 2 is a plot of the growth rates of several engine industries versus world
semiconductors.
1967 dollars.
In order to minimize the distortion of inflation, I have used
I also offset the time scale for world semiconductors by twenty-
five years. This graph shows our industry has already exceeded the peak revenues
for the engine industries.
However, if I were to talce integrated circuits alone
(about half of today's semiconductor maricet), the curves look very similar.
Each of the engine industries went through growth patterns that are remarkably
similar to semiconductors, even though, in many cases, they occurred a long time
ago.
They have been characterized as having three distinct phases.
During the first, or formative period, there was a phase of entrepreneurship and
proliferation of producers.
In most cases, there was also a large proliferation
of end equipment manufacturers, who were largely assemblers of engines.
Looking
at the long list of automobile companies in Fig. 3, one is sorely tempted to
- 2 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
compare to today's list of personal computer manufacturers and speculate as to
their survival rate.
After the formative period of "engine" manufacture which established standard manufacturing techniques, there followed a normative period of fifteen to twenty
years where process maturation occurred, and independent tooling vendors emerged
to produce the tools necessary to efficiently build the "engines".
During this
period, considerable consolidation occurred whenever the economy was weak, both
for engine vendors and for end equipment manufacturers.
With the availability of
manufacturing expertise from third party tooling vendors, vertical integration was
first successful and became a growing trend.
Fig. 4 shows a list of U.S. semiconductor companies in business today (I hope it's
accurate).
Already about 25% of these names are firms who are not only owned by
electronic end equipment companies, but at least a portion of their output is
being used in internal applications.
I believe the percent of semiconductor
revenues shipped internally is at least 25% and is growing.
This trend seems to
be accelerating even as our industry moves to higher levels of technology.
The third phase of growth in the engine industries has been called the integrative
period.
In every case, international proliferation of manufacturing occurred,
made possible by a major tooling vendor industry.
Production of the product
became a subject of national pride and governmental intervention.
"engine" firms were taken over by end equipment manufacturers.
facturing is a notable exception here.)
Most of the
(Jet engine manu-
Independent vendors declined or became
specialty manufacturers.
- 3 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 RIdder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
In every case, the proliferation of manufacturing expertise and worldwide capacity
growth enabled the industry to saturate their end markets such that the bulk of
the application of "engines" became a replacement market.
Under these circum-
stances, technology can stagnate and research and development often declined.
If there is a cheery note to this picture, it is that the integrative period was
at least ten to twenty years, and the slowing of growth was well signaled by end
use trends.
In order to understand where the semiconductor end use market might
be headed, I extended the U.S. installed bases of some major inventions (Fig. 5)
to 1994, and compared them with the projected growth in the computer.
If this
estimate Is accurate, we will have one computer for about every four people in the
United States, and the replacement market could well be a rapidly growing share.
However, lest we consider one computer per person is an extraordinarily high
estimate, I used another "engine" industry which is now clearly saturated in end
use application for contrast.
motor Inventory.
Fig. 6 is my personal 1984 fractional horsepower
A total of 29 FHP motors were in use in appliances, clocks,
automobiles, fans,—even the motor on my electronic typewriter/printer.
I esti-
mated their manufacturing cost as $248.00 and their average lifetime as ten years.
This puts my annual consumption at $24.80, about twice the U.S. average consumption according to manufacturers' records.
It seems reasonable to conclude that
there are ten to fifteen fractional horsepower motors in use in the United States
for every man, woman, and child.
In Fig. 7, I plotted the fractional horsepower electric motor market versus world
semiconductors.
As you can see, they had similar growth rates until the early
- 4 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Parl< Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
1960's when FHP motors declined from approximately 20% per year growth to about
6%. Industry journals at the time are full of complaints about foreign competition, industry consolidation, and vertical integration.
Whatever the cause, the
industry is now growing at little more than the rate of growth of the overall
economy, after a period of almost thirty years of growth similar to semiconductors .
The history of the engine industries has many fascinating parallels to our own.
They were all the growth industries of their day, and all of them made dramatic
changes to the world economy.
However, they were often overforecasted during
periods of high growth.
It is certainly possible that our industry will continue to be the world's fastest
growing industrial segment (for its size) and the Dataquest estimate for a 21%
compounded annual growth rate will enable world semiconductors to reach $175
billion in 1994. At that time, Dataquest estimates that MOS will be over
two-thirds of the industry at $129 billion (Fig. 8 ) . 1984 certainly meets that
criteria, with a semiconductor growth rate of around 55%. However, if we see the
decay of growth rate experienced by the engine industries, particularly beyond
1990, I thinic the MOS estimate is too aggressive.
Damping MOS so that the
compounded growth rate through 1994 is only 20% per year, the worldwide MOS
industry would be approximately $60 billion.
If the other segments of the
semiconductor market grew at the rate that Dataquest forecasted, we would still
have an overall industry of over $120 billion in 1994. That still looks
aggressive to me.
* * *
- 5 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Bibliography
1.
Sears, Stephen W., The Automobile in America, American Heritage Publishing
Co., New York, 1977.
2.
Kittieson, B. R., Competition in the Fractional Horsepower Electric Motor
Industry, University Microfilms International, London, England, 1961.
3.
Land, George T., Grow or Die, Dell, New York, 1974.
4.
Naisbitt, John, Megatrends, Warner Books, New York, 1982.
- 6 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
INDUSTRIES EXAMINED HISTORICALLY
1914-1982
•
•
•
•
•
STEAM ENGINES
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
ELECTRIC MOTORS
JET ENGINES
SEMICONDUCTORS
GROWTH OF ENGINE INDUSTRIES
VS WORLD SEMICONDUCTORS
10
(1967 DOLLARS)
—I—
1965
1975
—I
1985
1
1
TIIME SCALE FOR WORLD S/C
WORLD S/C
FRACTIONAL
HP MOTORS
III
to
STEAM
ENGINES
o
Q
O
13
S
0.1
ojn
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
- 7 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
o
£.
ST
i3
c
(D
(A
E
<D
a
Cfl
c
CT
(A
SOME U.S. AUTO COMPANIES
THAT DIDN'T SURVIVE
Q!
BJ"
-^
><
o_
>
b
CO
(D
O
O
3
•a
D>
D
<o
o
ALCO
DURVEA
JEFFEflY
APPERSON
E.M.F.
JORDAN
AUBURN
BAKER
EARL
ECK
KANSAS CITY HUMMER
BATTLESHIP
ECLIPSE
BEAU BRUMMEL
BEN'HUfl
I
OD
BUCKMOBILE
CARTER CAR
MOTOR HORSE
NASH
SNOeURNEil
STANLEY
NORTHERN
OAKLAND
OVERLAND
STEARNS
OWEN MAGNEhC
MCKARD
STEPHENS
EOSEL
KANSAS CITY WONDER
KING
KISSILE
ELMORE
ESSEX
KLINE
KLINK
EWINQ
KNOX
KROTZ
PEERLESS
PETER M H
STUDEBAKER
PAGE
STEARNS-KNKIHT
STEEL BALL
6TEVENS-DURYEA
STRATTON
Stun
CHANDLER-CLEVELAND
EXETER
COLT
FIFTY-FtFTY
FLANDERS
U PETITE
PtERCE-AflROW
TERRAPLANE
LASALLE
THOMAS
CORD
CROCK
FLINT
LEXINGTON
UBERTY
POPE-TOLEDO
POPE-WAVERLY
RAMBLER
TUCKER
CROSLEV
FRANKLIN
CUNNINGHAM
FRAZEH
HANIER
RAPID
UNIQUE
VIKING
0)
3
curriNQ
FRIDDLE
GARDNER
LOCOMOBILE
LUNKENHEIMER
LUVERNE
RAUCH A LANG
REEVES
REO
WAYNE
WELCH
GLIDE
LUXOR
MARMON
o
>
DETROIT
GflAHAM-PM»
MARQUETTE
RICKENBACKER
WHIPPET
WHITE
DEVAC
HALF-BREED
Ol
DOBLE
HAYNES-APPERSON
HICKS
MAXWEU
MERCER
RUXTON
SAXON
WILLS SAMil I ^ A M E
WILLYS
MERCILESS
SCRIPPS-BOOTH
SELF-CONTAINED
WIHTON
WOODS
SHERIDAN
WORTH
SIMPLEX
VALE
I
i
o
Cfl
I
COLUMBIA
DAN M T C H
DESOTO
DOnilANDV
DUESENBERO
.1^
O
CO
I
CO
o
o
o
!5.
CD
CO
-^l
CO
FOGS
HUPMOBILE
DUPONT
IZZER
METZ
MITCHELL
DURANT
JACKSON
MOON
ABOiir SOOOiCMmMIES A T T E H P r i D T t l WliliUnCTURE A U T O S
TIFFANY-BUOU
o
to
n
c
(D
O
o
- 1
U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES
IN BUSINESS NOW
•a
o
(D
_a
>
CO
c
CT
<»
a!
5'
•5
o_
>
ADVANCED MICRO D E V I C E !
AMERICAN MICROSYSTEMS
A P P L I E D SOLAR ENERGY
ARRAY D E V I C E S
b
ARRAYTECHNOLOaY
AVANTEK
CO
O)
BURR-BROWN RESEARCH
o
BURROUGHS/MICRO COMPON.
o
3
CALIFORNIA DEVICES
•o
o>
u
CALIFORNIA MICRO DEVICES
•<
C E N T R A L MICROWAVE
M
CO
O
CHERRY SEMICONDUCTOR
Q.
O.
(D
TO
01
CENTRAL SEMICONDUCTOII
'
CITEL
VO
CLAIREX E L E C T R O N I C S
I
CODI SEMICONDUCTOR
COMDIAL SEMICONDUCTOR
COMPENSATED DEVICES
CONTROL DATA/MICROCIRC
CSR I N D U S T R I E S
CUSTOM COMPONENTS
03
fi)
C_
O
CO
CD
O
C U S T O M M O S ARRAYS
CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTOR
DATEL-INTERSIL
DEXCEL
>
DIGITAL E O U I P M E N T C O R R
CO
DIODES INC.
oi
DIONICS INC,
E a S a INC.
o
SS
CO
-^J
I
CO
o
o
o
CD
CD
CO
-NI
u
EDAL INDUSTRIES
ELECTRONIC ARRAYS
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
ELECTRONIC TRANSISTOR
ELECTRONICS S ENERGY TECH
ELITE SEMICONDUCTOR PROD
ELM STATE EUCTRQNIC8
EXAH INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
FAIRCHILD CAMERA S INSTR.
FERRANTI ELECTRIC
FUJrrSU MICROELECTRONIC*
GE INTERSIL
GENERAL DIODE
GENERAL ELECTRIC SEHICON
GENERAL INSTRUMENT CCMIR
GENERAL OPTRONICS
GENERAL SEMICONDUCTOR
GENERAL TRANSISTOR
GERMANIUM POWER DEVICES
GIGABIT LOGIC
GOULD-DEXCELL DIVISION
GTE MtCnOCtRCUITS
HARRIS SEMICONDUCTOR
HEI, INC.
HEWLETT-mCKARD/COMPUTER
HONEYWELL, INC.
HUGHES AIRCRAFT
HUTSON INDUSTRIES
HYBRID SYSTEMS
IBM CORPORATION
IN MOS CORP
INTEGRATED DEVICE TECH.
INTEL CORPORATION
INTERDESIGN INC.
INTERNATIONAL DEVICES
INTERNATIONAL MICROCIRa
INTERNATIONAL MICROELEC.
INTERNATIONAL MICROWAVE
INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER
ITAC CORPORATION
ITT SEMICONDUCTOR
LAMBDA SEMICONDUCTORS
LANSOALE TRANSISTOR « EL
LASER DIODE LABORATORIES
LASERDYNE CORP.
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR
PLESSeV SOLID STATE
POLYCORE ELECTRONICS
SOLITRON DEVICES
SRACE POWER ELECTRONICS
SPERRV SEMICONDUCTOR
LITRONIX
POWER SEMICONDUCTORS
POWER TECH INC.
POWER TRANSISTOR CO.
LORAL FREQUENCY SOURCES
PPC PRODUCTS CORP
STANDARD MICROSYSTEMS
LSI COMPUTER SYSTEMS
PRECISION MONOLITHICS
STORAGE TECHNOLOGY CORP.
LSI LOGIC CORR
H/A COM INC.
RAYTHEON SEMICONDUCTOR
RCA CORP. SOLID STATE
SUPERTEX INC.
MASTER LOGIC CORP.
MCE SEMICONDUCTOR
RECTIFIER COMPONENTS
RIEHL TIME CORPORATION
SYNMOS
TECCOR ELECTRONICS
METELICS CORP.
MICnO-REL DIV/MEDTRONICS
ROCKWELL ELECTRONIC OEV.
8CHAUER MANUFACTURING
TELARIS MICROCOMPUTERS
TELEDYNE INC.
MICROCIRCUITS TECHNOLOGY
SEEQ TECHNOLOGY
SEMI PROCESSES INC.
TELEDYNE SEMICONDUCTOR
MICRON TECHNOLOGY
MICROPAC INDUSTRIES
5EMICOA
MICROPOWER SYSTEMS
MICHOSEMI CORP
SEMICON SEMICONDUCTOR
TOSHIBA SEMICONDUCT. USA
MICROWAVE DIODE
SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS
SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY
MICROWAVE SEMICONDUCTOII
SEMIKRON INTERNATIONAL
TRANSISTOR SPECIALTYS INC
TRW INC.
UNITED DETECTOR TECHNOL
MITEL INC.
SEMITRONICS CORR
UNITRODE CORPORATION
MONOLITHIC MEMORIES
SEMTECH CORP.
UNIVERSAL SEMICONDUCTOR
MONOSIL INC.
MOSTEK CORPORATION
MOTOROLA INC.
SENSITRON SEMICONDUCTOR
VAHIAM SOLID STATE
SENSOR TECHNOLOGY
VARO SEMICONDUCTOR
SENSVM INC.
SIEMENS COMPONENTS
VATEC INC.
VEECD INSTRUMENTS
SIGNETICS CORP
VEECO/LAMBOA S E M I C O N D U ^
SILICON GENERAL
SIUCON SYSTEMS
VLSI TECHNOLOGY
WEITEK CORP.
SILICON TRANSISTOR CORP.
WESTERN DIGITAL
SILICONIX CORP.
SOLAR POWER CORP.
WESTERN ELECTRIC
WESTINCHOUSE SEMICONDUCT
XCITON CORR
LINEAR TECHNOLOGY CORP.
MSI ELECTRONICS
NAE INC.
NATIONAL ELECTRONICS
NATIONAL SEMICONDUCTOR
NCR MICROELECTRONICS
NEC ELECTRONICS
NITRON INC.
SPRAGUE ELECTRIC
ST-SEMICON INC.
SYNERTEK
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC.
THOMSON-CSF SEMICONOUCC
OPCOA/REFAC ELECTRONICS
OPTEK
SOLAREX CORR
SOLID POWER CORP.
XICOR INC.
OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
SOLID STATE DEVICES
ZILOG
RARAMETRIC INDUSTRIES
SOUD STATE SCIENTIFIC
ZYMOS CORR
U.S. INSTALLED BASES OF
MAJOR INVENTIONS VS. THE POPULATION
duum
I
200M
1
1
i
I
T
1 -
L,
POPULATION
ilMM
lUUIWI
^r]/'^
TELEPHONES
52M-
_^
TTELEVISIONS
/
10IM
j
COMPUTERS/
5
o
1M
/ AUTOMOBILES
/
100K
/
10K _ L
1893
J
1
1913
1
1
1933
i f
1
1S53
l/
'
1
1973
1
1994
HISTORICAL DATA e . INTERNATIONAL DATA CORP.
FORECAST DATA • INTEL CORP. ESTIMATE.
MY 1984 FHP MOTOR INVENTORY
HOME
14
CARS (2)
11
OFFICE
_4
TOTAL
29
MANUFACTURING COST:
$248
AVERAGE LIFETIME:
10 YEARS
MY ANNUAL CONSUMPTION:
$24.80
U.S. ANNUAL AVERAGE CONSUMPTION
ACCORDING TO SIC 38211
$11.09
- 10 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
GROWTH OF WORLD SEMICONDUCTORS
VS. U.S. FRACTIONAL HP MOTORS
$175B
1D0
10
1 *
FRACTIONAL HP
ELECTRIC MOTORS
(U.S. SIC 36211)
jn
1830
X
1»40
1»S0
1960
1870
1B80
^
1990 1994
- 11 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Bidder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
WORLD S/C AND MOS l/C MARKETS
HISTORY AND FORECASTS
1
1
I
DATAQUEST
FORECAST
21%CAG /
100 ^-
$1758
/ /
/ /
/
$129B
$60B
INTEL
ESTIMATE
20°/DCAG
10 -f DATAQUEST
FORECAST
29%CAG
Itl
c
B
I
1 -^
/s/c
/ MOS l/C
.1
19S0
1
!
'
"
1960
1970
1980
1990
1994
- 12 -
Dataquest Incorporated, A Subsidiary of A.C. Nielsen Company /1290 Ridder Park Drive / San Jose, CA 95131 / (408) 971-9000 / Telex 171973
Dataquest