Initiating Coverage, 3 April 2014
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
Take Profit
Communications - Telecommunications
Market Cap: USD157m
Target Price:
Price:
THB19.80
THB19.0
Macro
Risks
Asean Telecommunications Bridge
Growth
Value
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
22
113
20
106
18
98
16
91
14
83
12
76
10
7
68

5
4

Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
1
Apr-13
Vol m
2
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (THB)
Free float (%)
5.83m/0.18m
0.0
16.5
11.7 - 21.4
49
Shareholders (%)
Mr Kranphol Asawasuwan
16.3
Mr Teerarat Pantarasutra
Mr Pongthep Thanakusuntorn
15.6
8.1

Massive network expansion to drag net profit. Symphony
Communication (Symphony) heavily invests in new optical fibre
coverage areas in 48 provinces (seven in the north, nine in the northeast, 18 in the central, four in the east and four in the south), 41 major
industrial estates and 84 office towers in Bangkok. The company expects
to boost total leased-line circuit by 25% y-o-y in 2014. Although it still
requires a lot of capital at its growth phase, we expect major investments
to be completed within two years, after which the company will enter a
harvest phase.
International private leased circuit (IPLC) and digital broadcasting
revolution to boost revenue. With digital TV transformation, more dataintensive contents will require high bandwidth. Private network will
continue to grow 30% on an increase in inter-branches communication
while the newly-introduced IPLC service is essential for domestic and
international firms to connect to their branches across borders. We
estimate IPLC revenue will jump 160% to THB240m, accounting for 20%
of total service income. All these factors will translate into more leased
circuits and drive circuit growth 24% in 2014.
Initiating coverage with a TAKE PROFIT. We value Symphony at
THB19.80, which is fully valued at the current trading price and has no
upside. The company is currently trading at 21x FY14F P/E, which is
expensive compared with the information and communications
technology (ICT) sector’s 15x P/E average. We initiate coverage on
Symphony, with a TAKE PROFIT recommendation. The stock is on our
watch list.
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total turnover (THBm)
693
808
1,017
1,336
1,587
Reported net profit (THBm)
212
237
249
282
338
Recurring net profit (THBm)
212
238
246
282
338
Recurring net profit growth (%)
7.1
12.1
3.5
14.5
19.8
Recurring EPS (THB)
0.71
0.79
0.82
0.94
1.13
DPS (THB)
0.68
0.53
0.58
0.61
0.73
Recurring P/E (x)
24.0
21.4
20.7
18.1
15.1
Veena Naidu +66 2862 9752
License No.24418
P/B (x)
4.57
4.28
4.01
3.72
3.43
P/CF (x)
16.3
11.1
9.3
6.8
6.3
veena.na@rhbgroup.com
Dividend Yield (%)
4.0
3.1
3.4
3.6
4.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.4
10.4
11.2
9.3
7.3
Return on average equity (%)
19.1
20.5
20.2
21.4
23.6
30.8
61.0
54.0
11.9
11.5
Shariah compliant
Vikran Lumyai +66 2862 2028
vikran.lu@rhbgroup.com
Forecasts and Valuations
Net debt to equity (%)
net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
net cash
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report


3

.
2
0
.
3
0
0
.
2
0
0
We see Symphony’s 2014 earnings growing 30% y-o-y to THB1.33bn on .
0
IPLC, digital broadcasting and private networks. This year, the latter is 0
expected to grow 30% y-o-y to THB340m amid urbanisation, while IPLC 0
is set to surge 160% y-o-y to THB240m on the AEC. Digital broadcasting
is expected to rise 24% y-o-y to THB120m. We initiate coverage on
Symphony with a TAKE PROFIT and a DCF-based THB19.80 TP,
reflecting 21x FY14F P/E.
6
3




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1
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Table Of Contents
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Valuation And Recommendation
3
Shareholder Structure
4
Core Business
5
Technology And Service Application
8
ICT & Communication Industry
9
Competition In The Industry
12
Financial Analysis
14
2
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Valuation And Recommendation
Long-term growth is questionable. We believe Symphony deserves to trade at a
premium, although its long-term growth is questionable. Hence, we do not expect the
company to trade at the same level as it did previously, since it is still in the
investment cycle and earnings will likely be depressed this year.
 Moats: medium
o
o
o
o
Economies of scale: yes
Network effect: no
Switching cost: low
Rights/trademarks: yes
 Five forces analysis
o
o
o
o
o
New entrance: high
Substitute services: low
Power of customers: medium
Power of suppliers: low
Competitors: medium
Valuation. We estimate Symphony’s TP at THB19.80, based on the following
assumptions: i) WACC of 10.55%, ii) terminal growth of 3%, and iii) using long-term
growth for stabilised services, ie access network and internet access at 5% and 8%
respectively. For growing business such as IPLC, private networks and digital
broadcasting, we assume growth rate of 160%, 30% and 24% respectively. Using the
DCF method, we calculate an equity value of THB5.93bn.
Recommendation. Our new THB19.80 TP is pegged to a P/E of 21x, which is 20%
above its long-term mean of 17.5x P/E. Investors should take profit on Symphony, or
add the stock to a further buy list due to its: i) questionable long-term growth and a
no-switching cost business model, ii) a deterioration in net profit margin to 24% from
35%, iii) change towards increasing capital because of its negative free cash flow,
and iv) high interest-bearing debt from heavy investment.
Figure 1: ICT sector’s P/E band
Figure 2: SYMC’s P/E band
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 3: Peer comparison
Company
P/E (x)
Market Cap (THB)
2014F
P/BV (x)
2015F
2014F
EV/EBITDA (x)
2015F
2014F
2015F
Dividend yield (%)
2014F
2015F
ROE (%)
2014F
2015F
SYMC
5,130
21.06
17.58
3.37
3.10
8.54
6.66
3.97
4.75
20.59
22.70
CSL
6,300
11.93
11.09
4.68
4.40
7.75
7.35
7.45
7.89
38.91
39.39
SAMART
18,415
10.76
9.61
2.26
1.74
6.19
5.41
4.92
5.57
22.71
21.45
SAMTEL
8,524
8.90
8.61
2.35
2.11
5.48
5.25
5.96
6.64
28.64
26.47
SIM
15,030
14.59
13.08
4.25
3.63
11.82
10.82
3.35
4.03
29.39
28.37
THCOM
45,200
25.74
20.18
2.78
2.53
10.07
9.09
1.96
2.53
11.16
12.98
JAS
56,385
15.15
12.27
4.32
3.69
8.31
7.19
3.25
4.27
31.33
31.42
AIT
5,931
11.15
10.08
2.99
2.31
7.76
7.69
5.82
6.28
26.72
23.98
MFEC
3,664
10.12
8.45
1.92
1.76
6.95
5.91
5.98
7.13
19.05
20.89
TRUE
100,258
N/A
N/A
9.41
7.27
9.81
8.22
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
DTAC
275,850
20.21
16.53
8.01
7.98
8.90
7.78
4.98
6.08
40.20
46.80
ADVANC
671,920
17.30
15.67
14.33
14.07
9.98
8.92
5.75
6.40
84.10
89.37
INTUCH
247,695
15.04
12.88
9.18
8.99
69.42
58.83
6.32
7.42
76.58
79.07
15.16
13.00
5.37
4.89
13.15
11.47
4.98
5.75
35.78
36.91
Average
Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Shareholder Structure
Symphony was founded in Nov 2005. The company’s major shareholders are the
Asawasuwan (16.36%) and Pantarasutra families (15.6%). Mr Kranphol
Asawasuwan, the company’s CEO, had been working at United Communication Co
Ltd (UCOM) as a network engineer for more than 15 years before he founded two
companies – Violin and Symphony. With his extensive experience and connection in
the telecommunication business, we believe that he will guide the company in the
right direction.
Figure 4: Symphony’s shareholder structure
Source: Company data
 Company has five operation licenses
consisting of:
o Internet type I
o Internet type II with network
o Telecom type II with network
o Telecom type III
o TV broadcasting license
 FTTx
(fibre optic to X) is an internet
technology using fibre optic network to
transmit data. X represents the destination
of the recipients which comes in various
forms such as FTTH (fibre to the home),
FTTO (fibre to the office) or FTTB (Fibre to
the building)
In 2006, Symphony received Telecom license type II (15 years), which allowed the
company to have its own network. It also received “right of way” permit which allowed
the installation of optical fibre on electrical posts in 2007. Consequently, the company
installed a 97km optical fibre and rented an additional 125km fibre from CAT
Telecom. Moreover, the company landed a 10-year contract to install a 192-core fibre
optic along the BTS line to serve massive number of BTS passengers. In 2011,
Symphony received Telecom license type III (15 years) to operate an IPLC service.
New subsidiary to serve last-mile networks services. The company founded
Diamond Line Services in 2013 to offer installation, repairing and maintenance
service for telecommunication equipment and last-mile networks. Recently,
Symphony started a fibre optic to X (FTTx) service using GPON (gigabit passive
optical network) via fibre optics for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Figure 5: Company structure
Source: Company data
Core Business
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
 The optical fibre network has unlimited speed
and carries a vast amount of data with almost
no risk of data losing. In Thailand, the price of
fibre optic cables is lower than that of copper
wires. A new 60-core (30 pairs) fibre costs
about THB50 per metre
Fibre optics a back-bone of all communication services. Symphony provides a
premium hi-speed communication network service using optical fibre. The optical
fibre network is a highly efficient infrastructure. One small optical fibre can transmit
up to 100Gbps in 20km distance without signal lost because of its insulation property,
hence leaving no electromagnetic or interference issues. The company’s services
comprise six main categories – Internet access, access network, base station
network, private network, IPLC and digital broadcast. Symphony is positioned to be
the regional network service provider and will move forward to be the Asean
telecommunication highway.
Figure 6: Symphony’s services
IPLC / Local Loop
Internet Access
Access Network
For Data Center
 Telecommunication
network technology is
divided into two parts: i) core network which
is the infrastructure of service providers, and
ii) last mile which is the last section of
network connecting service providers to endusers such as 3G, Wi-Max or 4G LTE.
Symphony’s technology belongs to the first
part, which will not be negative affected by
technology changes
Base Network
For operators
Fiber Optic
Network
Private Network
Digital Broadcast
Source: Company data
New core network will support long-term growth. By expanding into major hubs,
Symphony’s infrastructure currently covers over 48 provinces, 41 industrial estates
and 84 office towers. The company heavily invests in a brand-new network to
substitute an Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) network, which will
save the company THB60m per year. It plans to invest THB500m on backbone
network this year to capture major rural areas and introduce FTTx services to SMEs.
Another THB350m will be spent on last-mile network to utilise its core network with a
target of 1,200 new leased circuits (5,000 circuits in 2013 – revenue per circuit at
around THB0.2m). The company needs to invest on backbone equipment worth
THB200m every year and THB200-300m on last-mile network equipment depending
on revenue growth. We estimate Symphony’s capex at THB1,000m, THB560m and
THB650m during 2014-2016.
Figure 7: Symphony’s network coverage
Source: Company data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
 IPLC,
private network and digital broadcast,
which are Symphony’s flagship products in
the coming years, will boost its 2014 revenue
by 30%
 Revenue
drivers are: i) an increase in the
number of leased line circuit, and ii) revenue
per circuit increment, for example customers
request more speed. Depending on the types
of services and maximum speed, revenue per
circuit varies from THB10,000 to THB100,000
per month
Application trend is changing. With global connectivity, international enterprises
need a service to connect their international branches to domestic headquarters. An
IPLC provides the best solution. As this service requires high reliability and extra-high
speed, synchronous digital hierarchy (SDH) technology is used for the core network.
The connections need a delicate leased circuit to carrying data across the borders.
Currently, the company has four IPLC gateways at Sakaew, Singkhla, Nong-Khai and
Tak provinces, which connect to Cambodia, Malaysia, Laos and Myanmar
respectively. With the media convergence era approaching, Symphony signed a 3year contract in 2012 with the Cable Thai Holding Public Company (CTH), a cable TV
service provider, to provide backbone networks for broadcasting to major provinces,
eg Phuket, Chiang Mai, Udon Thani and Khonkaen. The company plans to develop
multi-platform broadcasting for TV programme producers and contents providers on
various platforms such as TVs, smartphones, tablets or computers.
Shift in revenue contribution. In the past two years, Symphony has successfully
expanded into two new segments – IPLC and digital broadcasting, each contributed
9.40% of its 2013 revenue. Internet access and private network revenue contribution
decreased to 63% in 2013 from 75% in 2010 due to a new service introduction. With
revenue shifting to IPLC service, we estimate 160%, 30% and 24% growth from
IPLC, private network and digital broadcasting respectively. IPLC service will
contribute 19% to the company’s topline this year.
Figure 8: Revenue contribution by application
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Figure 9: Revenue by technology
Figure 10: Revenue compared to leased circuit market
Source: Company data
Source: SIPA, ATCI, NSTDA, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Figure 11: Ready Ethernet area – 84 buildings with Ready Ethernet available
Source: Company data
Figure 12: Industrial coverage area – 41 industrial estates available
Source: Company data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
7
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Technology And Service Application
Source: Company data
 Comparison
Min speed: SDH > ME > RE > EoSDH > TDM
Max speed: ME > RE = SDH = EoSDH >
TDM
Price: SDH > TDM > EoSDH > > ME > RE
Response time (lesser is better)
EoSDH < SDH < SDH < ME < RE
Six applications for six technology types. Each technology type suits a particular
application. Both Metro Internet (ME) and Ready Internet (RE) are Ethernet services,
except RE focuses on leading commercial buildings in the Bangkok Metropolitan area
and offers lower prices. Digital broadcasting companies, data centres and internet
service providers (ISP) normally prefer ME over RE because it has a delicate circuit
without shared bandwidth with other companies in the same building. Time division
multiplexing (TDM), synchronous digital hierarchy (SDH) and Ethernet over SDH
(EoSDH) are similar technologies, except TDM’s last mile uses copper wires that limit
maximum speed to 2Mbps. Customers who are time-sensitive and need large
bandwidth, ie telecom operators and securities companies, normally use SDH. As
dark fibre is a naked optical fibre service, customers need to have their own
management and maintenance team. This service is usually used by commercial
banks like Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB156) and Kasikorn
Bank (KBANK TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB170).
Figure 13: Symphony’s customers
Application
Technology
Internet Access
ME, RE, TDM
Access Network
(Data Center)
ME, RE
Base Station Network
(Mobile Operators)
SDH
IPLC / International Circuit Local Loop
SDH, EoSDH
Digital Broadcast
ME, RE
Private Network
ME, RE, TDM,
Dark Fiber
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
8
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
ICT And Communication Industry
ICT market to grow modestly in 2014. According to the National Science and
Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), Thailand’s ICT market (comprises
computer hardware, software & software services and communications) – which
includes both public and private sectors – is worth an estimated THB750bn and
grows at an average 8% per year. The communication sector – which is worth
THB444bn or 60% of the ICT market – is the most essential function in the ICT
industry. This sector accounted for 4% of the country’s GDP in 2013 and rising. The
NSTDA estimates that 2014 ICT spending will grow 10% y-o-y, supported by
continuous investments from 3G networks, as well as a decline smartphone prices.
Figure 14: ICT industry map
Source: NSTDA, RHB estimates
 The communication sector – which is divided
into equipment and services – is the main
driver of the ICT market
Communication service is growth leader. Communication service consists of five
sub-segments – fixed-line, mobile, internet service provider, international call/VoIP
and data communication. The National Broadcasting and Telecommunication
Commission (NBTC) estimates a 18% CAGR over the next three years, driven by
non-voice services, broadband internet and leased circuits. Given the proliferation of
3G technology, non-voice mobile services have become a part of our daily life.
Mobile operators reported data usage growth of 34% CAGR during 2010-2012.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s fixed-line internet broadband penetration rate is as low as 7%,
compared to neighbouring countries such as Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, China
and Malaysia, at 31.6%, 27.9%, 26.1%, 13% and 8.4% respectively. While Advanced
Info Service or AIS (ADVANCE TB, BUY, TP: THB248), Total Access
Communication (DTAC TB, BUY, TP: THB116) and True Corp (TRUE TB, NR))
dominate in the mobile broadband arena, the fixed-line broadband market is
dominated by TRUE, TOT and 3BB with market share of 36.8%, 31.7% and 28.7%
respectively. The Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (MICT)
estimates broadband internet subscribers to reach 10 million people by 2020.
Rising demand for data communication services. As Thailand is approaching the
Asean Economic Community (AEC), demand for high-speed leased circuit will
increase exponentially over the next five years, supported by international firms such
as Verizon, SingTel, Google or Facebook, as well as domestic companies such as
Thai Beverage (THAIBEV SP, BUY, TP: SGD0.67), Siam Commercial Bank and
Central Retail Corp. Consequently, Data communication companies such as
Symphony, Jasmine International (JAS) and TRUE pre-expand their networks across
the country in order to support growing demand. More FTTx will be needed to serve
high-definition content like digital-TV and TV-on-demand. Fibre last mile will be
expanded to urban areas of each region. Based on industry estimate, leased circuit
services are set to grow to THB30bn, or a 15% CAGR over the next five years. The
sector is expected to outperform in the long run.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
9
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Figure 15: Communication services sector
 Data
communication service is divided into
two sub-categories – leased circuit and
others such as virtual private network (VPN),
frame relay and ATM. Total market value of
data communication service in 2012
amounted to THB28bn, of which 40% or
THB12bn was leased circuit
Source: NSTDA, RHB estimates
Thai Telecom Master Plan will boost ICT spending. The MICT announced the
Smart Thailand 2020 mega project, which contains Smart Network with a total value
of THB30bn. The project aims to standardise Thailand’s national broadband by
connecting 80% of population to hi-speed internet up to 2Mbps, establishing ICT
centres in the community such as schools and hospitals, and connecting at least
50,000 households to hi-speed internet in commercial underserved area.
Figure 16: ICT market value and its sub-segments
Figure 17: Communication sector’s market value
Source: NBTC, RHB estimates
Source: NBTC, RHB estimates
ICT spending expects to slowdown in 2014. With no clear solutions to political
crisis in the near term, many large-scale government projects such as Smart
Network, 3G Phases II, FTTx and free Wifi, which require Cabinet approval, will be
delayed to 2015. Private companies are likely to postpone their investments until the
political situation shows signs of improvement. However, we expect the slowdown in
ICT spending to be temporary as the new Government will likely be formed in 3Q14.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
10
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Figure 18: International broadband policies
Figure 19: Thailand’s broadband penetration rate
Source: NBTC / G = Government / R = Regulator
Source: NBTC, RHB estimates
Figure 20: Global ICT developments
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ ICT Indicators database/ * Estimate
See important disclosures at the end of this report
11
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Competition In The Industry
 Infrastructure
business is capital-intensive
and has high fixed costs
Data communication service requires a lot of capital investment because network
infrastructure is a foundation of telecommunication services. Hence, competition is
not intense and there are only a few major players in the industry. There are
Government entities such as Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT),
Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA),
which own and operate national fibre optic network for electrical purposes. On the
other hand, stated-own enterprises (SOEs) such as CAT Telecom and TOT own fibre
optic network in specific routes, but they do not focus on commercial purposes.
Direct competitors are listed telecom companies such as Advanced Info Service
(AIS), Total Access Communication (DTAC), Jasmine International (JAS) and True
Corporation. Others are private-owned companies such as United Information
Highway (UIH), KIRZ and OTARO. Most of them provide various communication
services which overlap each other. From NSTDA estimates, total leased-line market
value was around THB14.5bn in 2013 and Symphony had a market share of 6.78%.
Competitors
Parents
United Information Highway (UIH)
-
Leased line, MPLS, IP VPN, IP Transit, Metro B, Hosting
Services
BB Connect
UIH
IPLC, IP VPN, IP Transit
Super Broadband Network
AIS
IPLC, IP VPN, VoIP, MPLS, Metro LAN, IIG, ISP
Advanced Data Network Communications (ADC)
AIS
ME, ATM, MPLS
DTAC TriNet
DTAC
IPLC, International Calling Service, Mobile Service
True Universal Convergence (TUC)
TRUE
Calling Service, Fixed Line
True International Gateway
TRUE
IPLC
Triple T Broadband
JAS
VoIP, IPTV, MPLS, Internet, Fixed Line
JiNet
JAS
VoIP, MPLS, Metro Ethernet
JASTEL
JAS
IPLC, IP VPN, IP Transit, Metronet, MPLS, Data Centre
Triple T Global Net
TT&T
International Gateways, Access Network
KIRZ
-
IPLC, Metro Ethernet, Leased Line, Data Centre, ISP
OTARO
-
Leased Line, Data Centre, Hosting, MPLS
CS LOXINFO
CSL
ISP, International Call, Leased line, Data Centre
INTERLINK Telecom
ILINK
Cabling, Submarine Fibre Optic Cabling
SAMART INFONET
SAMART
MPLS, Leased Line, Gigabit Internet
THAICOM
THCOM
IPSTAR, Video Broadcasting, Transponder Leasing
Symphony Communication
SYMC
ME, RE, TDM, SDH, EoSDH, IPLC, VPN, IIG, BTS Wi-Fi
Source: Companies data
Figure 21: Revenue of major data communication service companies
Source: Company data, DBD (2012 data),
Note: DTAC not included
See important disclosures at the end of this report
12
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Offering premium quality with neutral services. Symphony focuses on premium
services which cost 30-50% more than its competitors. Additionally, the company
mainly concentrates on business-to-business (B2B) instead of business-to-customer
(B2C) as the former generates high income per client. While leased-line service
providers normally guarantee a minimum 98% up-time via fibre-link, Symphony offers
the 99.9% Service Level Agreement (SLA), which means that it guarantees a
maximum downtime of merely 44 minutes per month. The company remains its
neutral business position as its business never overlaps with that of its customers. In
the network engineer community, Symphony is preferred as the essential link, UIH or
ADC usually serves as a secondary link, while CAT is considered the last or back-up
link.
Companies
UIH
Revenue
Net Profit
NPM (%)
3,016.35
80.33
2.66%
478.79
-45.18
-9.44%
Super Broadband Network
3,481.45
1,110.67
31.90%
True Universal Convergence
8,359.50
208.01
2.49%
True International Gateway
1,035.53
148.38
14.33%
Triple T Broadband
4,751.44
1,380.00
29.04%
551.40
7.14
1.29%
1,130.20
192.44
17.03%
195.99
1.94
0.99%
10.68
-0.85
-7.96%
1,946.64
437.96
22.50%
125.12
-2.97
-2.37%
THAICOM
5,086.12
785.99
15.45%
Symphony Communication *
1,017.09
249.37
24.52%
ADC
JiNet
JASTEL
KIRZ
OTARO
CS LOXINFO
SAMART INFONET
Average
10.17%
Source: Information from DBD website with 2012 data
Note: *Company data (2013)
See important disclosures at the end of this report
13
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Financial Analysis
 Symphony’s
2014 revenue is expected to
grow 30% y-o-y as a result of the country’s
digital age transformation
For 2014/2015, we project Symphony’s service income to grow 30%/19% y-o-y and
net profit to grow 13%/20% y-o-y respectively, on the back of the country’s digital TV
migration and urbanisation from the AEC.

Symphony’s 2014 revenue to grow 30% to THB1.33bn. Symphony’s 2013
total revenue surged 25% y-o-y to THB1bn, mainly driven by new services ie
digital broadcast and IPLC, as well as growing demand. IPLC revenue soared 24
times to THB95m due to a lower base, while digital broadcast revenue grew 24%
to THB118m, backed by a 3-year contract with CTH. Private network revenue
grew 51% to THB261m, buoyed by expansion of coverage area. For 2014, we
expect Symphony’s service revenue to continue to grow 30% y-o-y to
THB1.33bn, supported by 160%, 30% and 24% y-o-y revenue growth in
international private leased circuit (IPLC), private network and digital
broadcasting respectively.
Figure 22: Revenue contribution
Source: Company data

 The
company’s FY14 NPM will decline to
21% due to higher revenue contributions from
IPLC, which have a lower profit margin


See important disclosures at the end of this report
Service cost up 46% y-o-y to THB475m. Symphony’s service cost increased in
2013 due to cash costs such as network rental and employee expenses. Since
rental fee is in proportion to data usage, many customers use long-distance
services connecting their regional and international offices via IPLC, which push
cost beyond management’s control. This was reflected in the company’s
bottomline growth of merely 5% y-o-y as well as a decline in margin to 25% in
2013 from 29% in 2012. Symphony expects net profit margin to continue to
decline, and turn stable at 20% upon completion of its network expansion.
Provincial network rental will be reduced by the second half of the year. We
estimate sustainable gross margin of 50% and net margin of 21% over the next
three years. We expect 2013 earnings to grow 13% y-o-y from an expanded
revenue base.
Net profit margin to decline with changes in revenue contribution. In 2013,
internet access and private network were major sources of service income,
contributing 37% and 26% of total service income respectively. Access network
and international local-loop leased circuit both contributed 7%. New services ie
IPLC and digital broadcast, contributed 9% each. Revenue from IPLC services –
which are purely international services – will boost Symphony’s topline while
depress its net profit margin. We project IPLC revenue to grow 160% y-o-y to
THB247m, approximately one-fifth of 2014 total revenue.
Change estimated useful life of network assets. The company changed its
accounting estimates for useful lives of assets in 2013. Useful life of fibre optic
cables was raised to 20 years from 10, while that of telecom equipment was
increased to seven years from five. The change is positive to net profit by around
THB65m and will relieve cost pressure in 2014. As the company is operating on
its own network, operating cost will likely reduce further.
14
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Figure 23: Revenue, EBITDA and net profit
Figure 24: Gross profit and net profit margin
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
As at 4Q13, Symphony’s interest-bearing D/E stood at 32%, which was significantly
lower than the bank’s covenant requirement of 2.5x, while its interest coverage ratio
stood at 33.8x in 2013. We expect its 2014 interest-bearing D/E to increase to 63%
and interest coverage ratio to decrease to 18.6x due to long-term debt. As such, we
are confident that the company will be able to repay its debt. After significant network
investment, we estimate Symphony’s interest-bearing D/E to decrease slightly to
56% in 2015, as earnings outpace cost.
Figure 25: Interest-bearing debt-to-equity ratio
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
The company is likely to see negative free cash flow given its intensive core network
investment this year. However, its cash flow from operations is expected to grow 37%
in FY14 due to higher revenue and lower expenses, as the company has its own
network. Meanwhile, its free cash flow from operations will likely remain negative in
2014. We expect a risk of capital increase because Symphony will not have enough
cash to pay dividends.
(THBm)
CFO
CFI
FCF
CFF
Ending Cash
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
272.77
312.10
458.40
549.10
754.22
814.02
936.94
(491.78)
(367.87)
(309.67)
(926.81)
(1,015.70)
(562.08)
(651.11)
83.17
(138.94)
(73.08)
(373.92)
(261.48)
251.93
285.82
561.89
(124.37)
(154.77)
225.04
275.62
(245.70)
(281.96)
351.46
171.32
165.28
12.62
26.76
32.99
36.86
Source: RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
15
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total turnover
693
808
1,017
1,336
1,587
Cost of sales
(244)
(323)
(475)
(668)
Gross profit
448
485
542
668
793
(156)
(187)
(229)
(300)
(357)
Operating profit
292
298
313
368
437
Operating EBITDA
412
473
489
639
814
(119)
(175)
(176)
(271)
(377)
437
Gen & admin expenses
Depreciation of fixed assets
Operating EBIT
(793)
292
298
313
368
Other recurring income
13
12
5
5
5
Interest expense
(0)
(0)
(9)
(20)
(19)
Other non-recurring income
-
Pre-tax profit
305
(2)
308
4
312
-
-
353
422
Taxation
(93)
(71)
(63)
(71)
(84)
Profit after tax & minorities
212
237
249
282
338
Reported net profit
212
237
249
282
338
Recurring net profit
212
238
246
282
338
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Cash flow (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Operating profit
292
298
313
368
437
Depreciation & amortisation
119
175
176
271
377
Change in working capital
(16)
47
121
207
99
9
10
12
405
530
621
Other operating cash flow
Operating cash flow
Interest paid
(2)
5
845
918
(19)
(0)
(0)
(9)
(20)
Tax paid
(93)
(71)
(63)
(71)
(84)
Cash flow from operations
312
458
549
754
814
(451)
(531)
(923)
83
222
Cash flow from investing activities
(368)
(310)
(927)
(1,016)
(562)
Dividends paid
(204)
(159)
(174)
(183)
(220)
400
459
(26)
Capex
Other investing cash flow
Increase in debt
69
(1)
Other financing cash flow
10
5
Cash flow from financing activities
Cash at beginning of period
Total cash generated
Implied cash at end of period
(124)
(155)
351
171
(180)
171
(6)
165
(4)
(1)
(1,016)
-
-
(562)
-
0
225
276
(246)
27
165
13
(153)
14
6
13
27
33
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
16
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm)
Total cash and equivalents
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
391
165
13
27
33
4
5
11
15
18
98
94
162
213
253
Inventories
Accounts receivable
Other current assets
12
21
47
47
47
Total current assets
506
285
233
302
351
Tangible fixed assets
828
1,182
1,929
2,673
2,855
Intangible assets
15
16
20
27
30
Total other assets
28
36
74
74
74
871
1,234
2,023
2,774
2,959
Total non-current assets
Total assets
1,377
1,519
2,256
3,076
3,310
Short-term debt
-
-
191
312
336
Accounts payable
126
204
438
601
714
56
39
64
163
192
182
243
693
1,076
1,242
501
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Total long-term debt
1
2
213
551
Other liabilities
79
82
79
79
79
Total non-current liabilities
80
84
292
630
580
Total liabilities
262
326
985
1,706
1,822
Share capital
300
300
300
300
300
Retained earnings reserve
237
314
388
487
605
Other reserves
579
579
583
583
583
1,115
1,192
1,271
1,370
1,488
Shareholders' equity
Other equity
-
-
-
-
Total equity
1,115
1,192
1,271
(0)
1,370
1,488
Total liabilities & equity
1,377
1,519
2,256
3,076
3,310
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
21.3
16.6
25.9
31.4
18.8
Operating profit growth (%)
8.5
2.0
5.0
17.5
18.8
Net profit growth (%)
7.1
11.4
5.4
13.1
19.8
EPS growth (%)
7.1
11.4
5.4
13.1
19.8
Bv per share growth (%)
0.3
6.9
6.6
7.8
8.6
Operating margin (%)
42.2
36.9
30.8
27.5
27.5
Net profit margin (%)
30.7
29.3
24.5
21.1
21.3
Return on average assets (%)
16.1
16.3
13.2
10.6
10.6
Return on average equity (%)
19.1
20.5
20.2
21.4
23.6
(35.0)
(13.7)
30.8
61.0
54.0
DPS
0.68
0.53
0.58
0.61
0.73
Recurrent cash flow per share
1.04
1.53
1.83
2.51
2.71
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Key Ratios (THB)
Revenue growth (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
17
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
SWOT Analysis
 A fibre optic service provider need a license
 First mover in providing premium high-speed
communication service. Its Service Level Agreement
(SLA) guarantees 99.9% service reliability
to operate business and requires a “Right of
Way” permit from EGAT, PEA or MEA to
install optical fibre
 CAT Telecom
may enter the
commercial
leased-line
business
 Difficulty in getting the “Right of Way” permission due
to limited space on electricity posts
 New entrants
may offer same
quality of
service with
lower costs
 Its IPLC
business grows
along with the
AEC
 Potential FTTx
business
emerges after
urbanisation
 Digital TV
transformation
will accelerate
growth in the
broadcasting
industry
 Needs to invest regularly due to customer
requirement
 A potential
takeover
candidate
 High fixed costs
 High debt as the business is still in the investment
phase
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
17%
15
13%
10
8%
5
4%
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
0%
Jan-11
0
20.0%
3.5
17.5%
3.0
15.0%
2.5
12.5%
2.0
10.0%
1.5
7.5%
1.0
5.0%
0.5
2.5%
0.0
0.0%
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-15
20
22.5%
4.0
Jan-14
21%
25.0%
4.5
Jan-13
25
5.0
Jan-12
25%
Jan-11
30
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Company Profile
Symphony Communication is a domestic network provider of high-speed data communication circuits which cover the entire business
area of Bangkok and its vicinity. The company uses optical fibre cable for its core network for infrastructure of telecommunication and
transmission such as intranet, inter-office data exchange and internet connection for large enterprises.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
18
Symphony Communication (SYMC TB)
3 April 2014
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
Nov-10
Oct-11
Aug-12
Jun-13
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
Date
Recommendation
Target Price Price
2014-04-02
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
19
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Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
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Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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YUASA
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012
A
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WORK
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
IOD (IOD Disclaimer)
การเปิดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ
ดาเนินการตามนโยบายของสานักงานคณะกรรมการกากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการสารวจของ IOD เป็นการสารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด
ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผลู้ งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสารวจ
ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนาเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน
อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสารวจจึงอาจ
เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้ นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด