feather consulting Economics, research & strategy September 2012 Volume 12, Issue 1 Newsletter Inside this issue: We present our September 2012 Edition Newsletter. • Qatar Airways starts New Route to Kilimanjaro Hurghada Bounces Back As Egypt adjusts to the new world created by its ambitious Arab Spring, the Red Sea resorts of Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh are seeing some recovery in passenger traffic in the seven months of 2012. • ANA Aeroportos 2 de Portugal Sale Hurghada International Airport saw its passenger traffic drop 26% to 5.97 million in 2011, but by July 2012 had seen an impressive 38% jump in traffic compared to the same period last year. Sharm el-Sheik International Airport has faired less well having dropped 37% to Sun-loungers in demand again as Egypt’s tourist re5.41 million in 2011 but recovered with turn to the Red Sea resorts an increase of 29% for the seven The airports are operated by the Egyptian Airports months of 2012. Company a subsidiary of EHCAAN (Egyptian Holding Cairo saw its traffic drop 19.4% in 2011 Company for Airports and Air Navigation) which is a public owned Company incorporated since 2001. but it only saw a 12% return in 2012 . Dreamliner Success Continues 787 Dreamliner. Their main argument was that the future of modern aviation rested on aircraft operating on long “thin” routes as opposed to long “thick” ones which had been the conclusion of their competitor Airbus in its decision to build a large super jumbo the A380. Passengers are keen to fly the Boeing 787 Dreamliner now in operation with ANA in Japan 2 Today the debate seems somewhat academic as a mix of aircraft are needed by airlines and both types are now regularly seen at airports around the world. The 787 (210-250 seats) first became operational for launch customer ANA in Japan in September 2011. There are now 19 aircraft flying and 845 on order. The A380 (525 seats) first came into commercial service in October 2007 with For many years Boeing’s forecast team fought long Singapore Airlines and there are now 81 and hard to justify the company’s decision to build the aircraft in operation and 257 on order. • No Consistent Market in Greece 3 • Enter Air— 3 Poland’s Largest Charter Carrier • New Development at Santiago de Compostela 4 Special points of interest: • Virgin Atlantic Returns to Canada • The World’s Longest Non-Stop Air Services Qatar Airways Starts New Route to Kilimanjaro An announcement was made by Qatar Airways at Farnborough to launch a new air service to Kilimanjaro Airport in Tanzania. This marks a particular affinity that the airline has with high mountainous regions: for a long time Qatar was the only carrier from the Middle East to serve Katmandhu Tribhuvan International Airport, the principal gateway airport to Everest and the Himalayas. Kilimanjaro International Airport, became the first international airport to be privatised in Africa in 1998 under a consortium agreement. However in 2009 the Government decided to buy back all the share-holding and it now operates the company directly. In 2011 there were just under 650,000 passengers handled at the airport. For many years the airport was a stop for regular KLM Amsterdam services, a route made viable by an uplift cargo of locally grown roses and other flowers. Northern Tanzania is sparsely populated but tourist opportunities provide significant economic potential with the major attractions of the caldera of the Ngorongoro Crater, the wildebeest Tourism development offers great traffic potential for Kilimanjaro International Airport migration of the Serengeti National Park, and Mount Kilimanjaro itself. ANA Aeroportos de Portugal Sale The Government of Portugal is looking at ways to privatise ANA Aeroportos de Portugal—the company responsible for the airports of the country. Those under consideration include the airports in mainland Portugal (Lisbon, Porto, Faro and the Beja civilian terminal), in the Azores (Ponta Delgada, Horta, Flores and Santa Maria) and on Madeira (Madeira and Porto Santo). Options include the sale of all the airports in the group as one entity, selling groups of airports or selling airports individually. Lisbon Airport passenger traffic has seen a steady rise of 5.5% over the last 25 years. In 2011 it reached 14.8 million. ANA’s main airport Lisbon handled 14.8 million passengers in 2011, up 5.4% on the previous year. In the first seven months of 2012 traffic has slowed slightly rising by 2.6% on the same period in 2011. The airport at Porto handled 6.0 million passengers in 2011 showing strong growth of 13.9% on 2010. In the first seven months of 2012 traffic growth was weak with only 0.3% rise recorded. Faro handled 5.6 million passengers in 2011 up 5.2% on 2010. In the first seven months of 2012 traffic was also weak rising only 0.4%. Virgin Atlantic Returns to Canada Vancouver International Airport welcomed a new Virgin Atlantic Airways’ service from London Heathrow earlier this year. This marks the first time in a decade that the carrier has flown to Canada. The new service will be operated four times weekly throughout the summer of 2012. The United Kingdom is Vancouver’s largest single greatest source of overseas visitors. In 2011 there were over 0.66 million passengers flying from the UK—up 1% on the year previously. Flights from Gatwick, Glasgow, Manchester as well as Heathrow were operated to the city by a variety of carriers including BA, Air Canada and Air Transat. This year, by contrast, with the addition of the new Virgin service Virgin Atlantic A340-300 en-route to Vancouver Internaand additional flights from Bournemouth and East Midlands traffic tional Airport. had risen by over 4.4% in the seven months to July 2012. Page 2 feather consulting No Consistent Market in Greece The impact of a tough economic conditions in Greece has not been consistent felt across all airports in the country. Passenger traffic at Athens International Airport, the nation’s largest, declined 11% over the two-year period from 2009 to 2011—reaching 14.3 million passengers by the end of last year. Thessaloniki also saw a drop of 4% over the same period to reach 3.96 million passengers. Most other larger airports have seen rises with impressive gains at Rhodes which rose by 20% over the same period to reach 4.15 million, Kos, which saw a 29 percent increase to 1.96 million and Santorini up 12% to reach 0.76 million annual passengers. Passenger Traffic at Greek Airports 2009-2011 shows In 2012 the difficult economic situation continues further mixed performance. to cause problems for Athens. In the seven months to July 2012 the airport saw a drop of 12% over the period down passenger traffic fell 14 percent to 4.8 million and domestic to 7.4 million from 8.4 million a year earlier. International travellers were down 8.4% to 2.6 million. The World’s Longest Non-Stop Air Services The longest non-stop air service operated by any commercial carrier across the globe is the route performed by Singapore Airlines from Singapore (SIN) to New York Newark (EWR). This service which takes nearly nineteen hours covers a great arc distance of 15,345 km. It departs at 10:55hrs in Singapore, arriving the same day at 17:50hrs in New York. The return journey which is quicker by twenty five minutes departs New York at 23:00hrs and arrives in Singapore two days later at 05:30hrs. The shortest flight routing would take the aircraft over the North Pole. However the Airbus A340-500 on the route SIN-EWR flies eastwards trans-Pacific, whilst the return flight EWR-SIN flies eastwards trans-Atlantic. This makes the overall SIN-EWRSIN service an eastward round-the-world The World’s Longest Non-stop Commercial Air Services. flight. Apparently the carrier chooses these routings to make best use of the jet-stream tailwinds over both the Pacific and Atlantic which can significantly reduce the amount of fuel required for the journey. Enter Air—Poland’s Largest Charter Carrier The rise of Enter Air has been rapid having only started operations in April 2010 and yet it is already Poland’s largest charter carrier and the second largest in the Eastern European region (after the Czech operator Travel Service AS). Enter Air has three permanent bases: Frederic Chopin Airport (Warsaw), the Katowice-Pyrzowice Airport and the Poznań-Ławica Airport but operates throughout the country with programs from other cities, including: Krakow, Wroclaw, Gdansk, Bydgoszcz and Łódź. The airline has an all Boeing fleet comprising eight B737-400 and three B737-800 aircraft. In 2011 it flew over 904,000 passengers to and from Polish airports to destinations as varied as Antalya in Turkey, Heraklion and Rhodes in Greece and Enfidha in Tunisia. Overall in 2011 the charter sector in Poland amounted to nearly 3.3 A Boeing 737-400 of Enter Air—now Poland’s largest charter carrier million passengers, a rise of 5.4% on the previous year. Volume 12, Issue 1 Page 3 New Developments at Santiago de Compostela The ancient city of Santiago de Compostela in North West Spain is famous as the destination for hundreds of pilgrims who each year make the long walk of the Camino de Santiago across Europe and Northern Spain (-writer included!). Pilgrim numbers have risen steadily over the last 25 years, increasing from less than 2,000 in 1987 to nearly 300,000 in 2010. A new airport terminal has recently been completed for the city designed by architects Alberto Noguerol and Pilar Díez, in collaboration with the Initec engineering studio. In 2011 the airport handled over 2.46 million passengers, up 13.4% on the previous year. In the first seven months of 2012 however passenger traffic was down 9.3% on the same period in 2011— probably due to the collapse of the airline Spanair which was a frequent visitor to the airport. The new terminal facility has been designed to handle 3,200 peak-hour passengers which makes its floor footprint far too large for the actual numbers currently being processed. In fact AENA, the airport’s operator, appears to have mothballed at least a third of the available terminal space, cordoning off a part of the terminal from operational activity. Ryanair is the airport’s largest operator, accounting for just under 50% of all traffic. Other carriers include Vueling (13%) and Air Europa (8.5%). New operators have commenced operations in the sum- The spectacular façade of the Cathedral de Santiago in Spain is the welcome destination of thousands of Camino pilgrims. mer period including Iberia Express, Volotea and interestingly Aer Lingus. Nearly 87% of all traffic at the airport is domestic to destinations throughout Spain such as Madrid, Barcelona and Palma de Majorca. The largest international destinations are London Stansted, Geneva, Milan and Frankfurt Hahn. Feather Consulting is an independent research group providing advice to airports, airlines, financial institutions, governmental organisations and other clients throughout the world. Our flexible approach allows us to deliver a bespoke service generating balanced and informed solutions. A range of forecast methodologies and comprehensive airport financial modelling techniques permits us to deliver discrete commercial advantage for our clients. Why not visit our web site: www.featherconsulting.co.uk feather consulting Economics, research & strategy 61 Sylvan Avenue Timperley Altrincham Greater Manchester United Kingdom Contact: Frank Elder Phone: +44 161 718 5808 Email: frank@featherconsulting.co.uk