Cracks in the Glass Slipper: Local Government Managers’ Perceptions and Cinderella Federalism Bruce J. Perlman, Ph.D. Regents’ Professor and Associate Director School of Public Administration, University of New Mexico Michael J. Scicchitano, Ph.D. Director Florida Survey Research Center Department of Political Science, University of Florida Yahong Zhang, Ph.D. Associate Professor School of Public Affairs and Administration, Rutgers University at Newark Prepared for the 2014 Deil S. Wright Symposium on Intergovernmental Management: Reflections and Directions 75th Annual Conference of the American Society for Public Administration March 14-18, 2014, Washington, D.C. Glass Slipper - Page 1 Introduction: Outworn Metaphors for Federalism and IGR after the Great Recession Since its inception, two articles of faith have guided the study of Intergovernmental Relations (IGR) in the United States. The first is that the three levels of government (Federal, State, and Local) work together in a formal and informal collaboration to satisfy the needs of the nation’s populace all of whom are citizens of both the Federal and State Governments as well as residents of local jurisdictions where they receive most services. The second, is that a series of metaphors can help one understand the relations implicit in U.S. Federalism (Wright, 1982). The initial vision of intergovernmental relations was that of the “layer” cake where the federal, state and local governments operated, for the most part independently of the other branches of government. The other images of intergovernmental relations, however, the “marble” cake and the “picket fence” suggests a degree of collaboration in which federal and state governments provide funding and local government provide services. What happens, however, under severe fiscal stress such as we have had for the past several years in which the federal and state governments simply do not have the revenues to pass to local governments? Indeed, federal and state governments may still mandate that existing services be provided and may even issue mandates for additional services (Perlman, 2010). The focus of this research is to examine the relationship between federal and local governments and state and local governments under severe fiscal stress. The data for this research was developed from a national survey of city (N=306) and county (N=438) managers and other chief officials of local government. The survey asked a series of questions regarding city and county leaders’ perception of the relationship between their local government and the federal and state governments. This paper first provides descriptive information regarding the local government managers’ perceptions of the relationship between their local governments and the state and the federal government, the other players in the U.S. IGR system. Second, it tests three hypotheses implicit in our current understanding of the IGR system and the strength and coherence of their relationship. Third, it examines the implications of the foregoing for traditional ways of understanding or “telling the story” of the US Federalism and IGR. Fourth, it suggests a new, allegory for understanding the perceptions of local government actors in the US IGR system and draws out the implications of this allegory for public policy. The Old Metaphors For most of the U.S. national experience, Federalism and its working out through the relations of the Federal, State, and local governments – a set of transactions later called Intergovernmental Relations (IGR) – was mostly a concern pertinent to constitutional law. It should be remembered that Dual Federalism, a concept that continues to be used to mark the relations between the Federal Government and State Governments, was originally a descriptor for the balance of power between the two achieved under the doctrine of States’ Rights. The idea of Dual Federalism implied a sort of constitutional hierarchy as well as a dichotomy. The Federal government had Two ideas are implicit in the view of a “Dual” federal system. First, that the Federal and State governments have twin or double roles in governance and are more equal than not, remaining supreme in their own areas. Second, that both governments have important responsibilities in representing and serving the public in their spheres, much more so than local governments. It might be said that local governments were relatively ignored entities in this formal framework as the notion “Dual” implies: “stepchildren,” so to speak, of the two parent governments. Power is shared between the Federal and state governments. Glass Slipper - Page 2 Beginning with the Great Depression, pressure was put on the division of powers, decisions, and responsibilities, implicit in the idea of a Dual Federalist system. The skyrocketing citizen demand for governmental support and services as well as the attempts to innovate governmentally like the WPA, the NRA, and the New Deals, inherently gave a new role to all levels of government. Not only did the Federal government’s role and that of its partners, the states, change, but even localities and the private sector had to become involved in serving public needs. Settled patterns of provision gave way to new arrangements and collaboration across levels of government. In short, the possible still constitutionally accurate description of Dual Federalism became outmoded practically. Taking the Cake In an attempt to characterize the then outmoded view of IGR in Dual Federalism Mortin Grodzins called it famously, “Layer Cake” federalism (Grodzins, 1960). Holding aside technical and culinary questions like how many layers, what flavors, and what holds the layers together, this was a useful metaphor for illustrating the clear notions of separateness, hierarchy, and rough equality implicit in Dual Federalism. Moreover, it is a metaphor that suggests a larger role for local jurisdictions than they were given traditionally. This not only better mirrored fact, but was a more accurate model of how people interacted with government and, eventually, how governments interacted than that presented by the more legalistic ideas of Dual Federalism. In sum, it was a better model for IGR in practice. In tandem with the Layer Cake metaphor, and really grounded by it, Grodzins also introduced the contrasting simile, of the Marble Cake. This type of Federalism, also known as Cooperative Federalism, as the name implies typifies an IGR system in which the costs, administration, decisions, powers, and responsibilities of the various types of governments are mixed together. As Grodzin’s says in his famous work, The Federal System: The American form of government is often, but erroneously, symbolized by a threelayer cake. A far more accurate image is the rainbow or marble, characterized by an inseparable mingling of differently colored ingredients, the colors appearing in vertical and diagonal strands and unexpected whirls. As colors are mixed in the marble case, so functions are mixed in the American federal system. Under these conditions, the Federal, State and even local governments mix together to pay for, set standards for, execute, and evaluate policy activity. One of many examples is the cooperation inherent in constructing, maintaining, and policing highway and road systems. In this more modern view, Cooperative Federalism is as much a description of the informal cooperation that has evolved over time, especially incented by grant in aid programs, rather than a legalistic encapsulation of formal relations. Pointed References One limitation of metaphors is that, while revealing and helpful, they may not depict everything or at least what is desired. The Cake Metaphor for Federalism and IGR has been extended by several notions and metaphors, one of these is the idea that Federal, State, and Local relations in delivering programs and meeting public demand, might best be represented by the metaphor of a Picket Fence. This metaphor focuses primarily on the relationships at the federal and state levels that develop among policy professionals in the various cooperating bureaucracies that enable the implementation of federal polices at the local level through the states. It has been pointed out, variously, that these arrangements can either disable or enable political officials (Sanford, 1967). Glass Slipper - Page 3 In this metaphor, the specific policies and programs that are carried out by different governments are represented by the vertical, pointed pickets in a picket fence. The notion of the levels of governments, national, state, and local, are depicted by the horizontal boards or slats in the fence. This is a model of government that involves all levels of government in program implementation as indicated by the pickets which run from the top to the bottom for every policy or program. The image of the picket fence is used to visually show how after the 1960’s all levels of government had a stake and an interest in formulating public policy and carrying out public programs. Challenges as diverse as elementary and secondary education, welfare, and public housing are the sorts of cross-cutting programs represented by the vertical pickets of the fence. Support, communication, and, reinforcement are provided by the federal, state, and local governments portrayed by the horizontal. Federal programs designed to address urban problems and to meet the needs of the disadvantaged (e.g., Medicare and Medicaid programs) grew in the 1960’s during the Johnson administration’s War on Poverty. This saw funding increase substantially to local governments through state governments. Federal grant programs provided funding to local school districts, governments, and nonprofits rather than to states. Successful grant applications required clear strategies, well developed budgets, public participation, and a sound management plan. Also, localities and not for profits had to raise matching funds to apply for federal grants as well as meet performance and reporting requirements. These grant programs led to more competitive intergovernmental relations. One interesting factor for the picket fence metaphor is that although services are directly administered and delivered at the local level, the resource and equity demands of the system require a funding role for the other two levels In a similar vein, although the picket fence metaphor does not directly address the role of regional governments, it has been extended to an attempt to illustrate the workings of intergovernmental agreements as a cooperative endeavor among governments. Contrarily, this work posits the “slats” of the fence as the reinforcing parts of the model. This point of view focuses more on the relationships among lower, or local levels of government through mediated structures like councils of government than does the conventional model of picket fence federalism, although it does not focus on these levels directly (Wood, 2002). Recently, it has been pointed out that this metaphor does not capture well some of the dynamics of modern Federalism and IGR. For example, Thompson, points out that the picket fence metaphor does not capture well what has lately been called Executive Federalism (Thompson, 2013). This theory places more emphasis on the relationships of political executives and their appointees rather than bureaucratic actors. In addition, others have contrasted this point of view with the new emphasis on a Performance Based Federalism, though pointing out the difficulty in determining the actual impact of this point of view (Wong, 2008). Sound and the Cloud There have been some attempts to replace these tried and true metaphors and models with new ones. An interesting attempt has been the work of Schapiro (Schapiro, Toward a Theory of Interactive Federalism, 2006) (Schapiro, Polyphonic Federalism: Toward the Protection of Fundamental Rights, 2009), who has attempted to develop a theory of what he calls Polyphonic Federalism. In this theory, he attempts to address the dualism of contemporary Federalist theories and replace them with one that preserves the differences in points of view and manages to give a small nod to the role of local governments. The chief notion in this schema is that the most effective way to portray U.S. Federalism is not visually, but aurally and that rather than using a visual metaphor, a more adequate one would be a musical Fugue or Canon. This representation purports to have the advantage of assuring that, individual Glass Slipper - Page 4 voices are not lost in combination, but rather create a new whole while preserving their individual nature. Likewise, Bidjerano, uses the metaphor of the World Wide Web or Internet as a representation of U.S. Federalism (Bidjerano, 2004). Useful Metaphors? The usefulness of the foregoing metaphors – and to the same extent the theories that accompany or react to them – have been criticized as not highlighting what is important in U.S. Federalism or even being useful as ways to understand them (Weissert, 2011). Additionally, it is not clear that metaphors or even theories that are not rigorous models can capture the evolving and cyclical nature of U.S. Federalism and IGR. One might ask for example, how the metaphors and theories can account for subtle changes in the system that may have occurred and may come back but no longer obtain. For example, Richard Nathan points out about the states that: States reshaped programs to their priorities, increased the funding of programs in areas in which the federal government had become less active, and assumed more control over the activities of local governments and nonprofit organizations. In these ways and others, states expanded their influence vis-à-vis the federal government and in their relationships with local governments and nonprofit organizations (Nathan, 2006). Do any of the foregoing show this sort of subtle evolution in their depictions? Not only this feature, but are they able to show what some of the earliest writers on IGR have pointed out as a potential and possibly desirable evolution of the state internal system into a sort of intra-state federal system with counties playing a new role (Belmonte, 1973)? Probably, it is for these and related reasons that some of the leading writers about U.S. Federalism and IGR suggest the use of multiple models for studying U.S. IGR, even if the contingencies for their application and the definitional criteria for the inclusion and exclusion of phenomena are not crystal clear (McGuire, 2001). In some respects, the endeavor of studying U.S. Federalism and IGR should not be just the expansion, extension, and application of what we know, but the incessant questioning of it. As Robert Dilger has pointed out, much of what we think we know about U.S. government, Federalism, and the IGR system is not so and it is in the interests of everyone to challenge assumptions about the workings of U.S. Federalism; for example, national budgetary policy may not be incremental or grant in aid funding may not be declining really. Continuing to operate on received wisdom affects both interest groups as well as public officials and thus the policy making process itself (Dilger, 2000). In addition, these metaphors fail to capture both significant parts of the U.S. Federal system and IGR, but also, changes that have occurred recently. As noted in passing above, the least developed representation in the various depictions of the U.S. Federalism and the IGR System is that of the local government. These, layers, slats, nodes, notes, or whatever they might be are the least fleshed out in telling the story of U.S. Federalism. It is tempting to explain this away because of the dependent nature of U.S. cities and counties as political or administrative entities, but that hardly explains why they have always been included in the metaphors and theories. Yet, in reality these jurisdictions are where the rubber of federalism meets the road of governance and it is the effects of changes at the center on them that tells the story of U.S. Federalism and IGR (Perlman, 2010). As Deil Wright said, “We need to get a handle on the study of intergovernmental relations in a multilevel and multidimensional way (Fernandez, 2004).” It is likely that the latter has been better attended than the former. We have not been very Marxian and turned the received wisdom of Federalism and IGR “on its head.” Glass Slipper - Page 5 Moreover, the metaphors and models, by their nature cannot account well for changes after considerable upheavals in the system itself. The most recent example of this is the impact of what has come to be called the Great Recession (Perlman & Benton, Going It Alone: New Survey Data on Economic Recovery Strategies in Local Government, 2012). The impact of this near depression like event from which we are still recovering and its impact has been felt most greatly at the local level of the economy whether homes or local governments. In short, the old metaphors of US Federalism may no longer capture what is really going on in the IGR system today. The economic downturn has stressed the IGR system, possibly to the breaking point. A Federal Government trillions of dollars in debt is not financially or politically capable of helping other governments much. Without the possibility of deficit budgeting, State Governments devote every available dollar to their own operations and dedicate the lion’s share of Federal grants in aid to the largest and fastest increasing portion of their budgets – Medicare and Medicaid. Local Governments have shed jobs and reduced expenditures and waited for help from above that has not come. Meanwhile, shrinking tax bases, growing benefit burdens, increasing service demands, and deteriorating infrastructure have put local governments against the fiscal wall. Where and how is any of this reflected in conventional metaphors and models? The Research Recently, the authors have surveyed just under 750 (N= 744) local government administrators – both city and county level – on the actions they have taken to cope with fiscal pressures during and after the Great Recession and their perceptions about the support they receive from the other two levels of government. In particular, the questions examine the views of these local managers on the relationship of their governments with the other two levels of governments: the states, on whom they most directly depend and the federal government from whom they have gotten most of their resources in the recent past. Model Although the metaphors and attendant theories reviewed above do not apply directly to local governments, they do present some important potential variables for the current study. The layer cake metaphor and its handmaiden theory, Dual Federalism, give insight into the importance of authority in the legal-hierarchy in which U.S. Federalism operates and the constitutional nature of both the national and state governments and the primacy of the former. The Marble Cake metaphor and accompanying notions of Cooperative Federalism suggest the way that governments actually operate in practice, in a much more fluid and shifting manner in which governments work together in a pragmatic and not always legalistic manner to help each other. The Picket Fence metaphor and contrary points of view such as Executive Federalism point out the way in which much of U.S. Federalism works using interlocking and cross-cutting demands and supports and ad hoc program mechanisms whether these are the result of bureaucratic or political interactions. Newer theories such as Polyphonic Federalism are more difficult to reduce to variables and suggest the metaphor of a Fugue. Nevertheless, however U.S. Federalism is depicted, two things remain true. Since 2008, the environment of U.S. Federalism has changed drastically. The programs of jobs, grants, and aid that powered the old IGR system since the Great Depression and through the Reagan Administration, no longer exists. The second is obvious: local governments’ role in and view of IGR is not highlighted in the dominant metaphors and has been given less attention than that of the other levels. Local governments roles and views are an afterthought in most of the studies of Federalism and IGR, but they were the Glass Slipper - Page 6 governments that benefited from and, perhaps, progressed most during evolution of U.S. Federalism, but have suffered the most in the break up the old IGR system. To remedy the foregoing, the research reported here, looks at the three important constructs suggested in the metaphors of authority, support, and burdens for local governments from the States and Federal governments. It examines the way that changes in these constructs by the State and Federal government impact the perceptions of local governments of their relations with these other two levels after the economic downturn. In short, it looks at the perceived relationship between local governments and the Federal and State governments after the Great Recession. Hypotheses The purpose of the research is to shed light on the current views of the local governments of their relations with the other two levels of government. That is, to tell the IGR story from the local point of view. This was examined by looking at the relationship of two key dependent variables, revenues and authority. Because the most direct he responses of the local administrators were analyzed to test the following three hypotheses, which support each other in a triangular framework: 1. As a local government’s revenues decline, its relationship with the state becomes more negative and its relationship with the federal government becomes more positive. 2. As a local government’s revenues decline, state governments reduce funding and authority while adding more burdens to local government; similarly, the federal government does not provide more support by offering more funding and authority. 3. A Local government’s relationships with the federal and state governments depend on the change of support from the two levels of government respectively. Data The data for this analysis was collected from an online survey that was directed to the chief operating office for a random selection of cities of all sizes and each county in the U.S. The chief operating officer was the city/county manager or mayor in those cities with a strong mayor/mayor only form of government. Multiple reminders were sent to maximize the participation rate. A response rate of approximately 28 percent was obtained. The survey asked a number of questions regarding the actions taken by city or county governments in response to the financial downturn. The survey results permitted the development of six dependent variables and a series of independent variables that are used in the multivariate analyses reported below. Dependent Variables This research focuses on three different measures of the relationship between city and county governments and the state and federal government. These measures are the dependent variables in the analysis. Each respondent who completed the survey was asked to select any of four conditions that pertained to their jurisdiction regarding the current status of "State Support Reduction:" Decreased funding Reduced local authority Increased mandated local activities without funding Increased local responsibilities without funding Glass Slipper - Page 7 A second dependent variable was developed from a similar set of items about any increases in support from the state. Essentially, this variable is a mirror image of the first dependent variable. Respondents were asked to select any of four conditions that pertained to their jurisdiction regarding the current status of “State Support Increase:” Increased funding Increased local authority Decreased mandated local activities without funding Decreased local responsibilities without funding The same set of questions were asked of the respondents about the federal government. Accordingly, the two resulting dependent variables are "Federal Support Reduction" and "Federal Support Increase." Taken together these items provide four dependent variables for this analysis: state "Reduction" or "Increase" and federal state "Reduction" or "Increase." These variables are measured by giving a value of "1" each time the respondent indicated the perception that the federal or state government decreased or increased support. As such, the value of this variable ranges from "0" indicating that the respondent perceived that no support "Reduction" or "Increase" actions were taken by the appropriate government to a "4" indicating that all of the "Reduction" or "Increase" actions were taken. The final two dependent variables were developed from two similar questions. "Do you think the relationship between your [city/county] government and the [state or federal] government has improved, stayed about the same, or gotten worse in response to the economic downturn?" These two dependent variables are measured by ordinal responses ranging from, "Improved=3," "Same=2" and "Worse=1." Respondents who indicated that they did not know the answer to a question or otherwise refused to answer were dropped from the analysis resulting in a total N of 663 cases. Independent Variables The survey also provided several independent variables for the multivariate analyses. These were constructed from the appropriate survey items. The independent variables and their measurement are summarized below: Economic Improvement A factor score developed from three questions about the economic condition of the jurisdiction in the past three years; 1.) Current condition; 3.) Real estate market; 4.) Job Availability. Survey responses for each item were "Improve," "Same," or "Worse." Revenue Change This was taken directly from a single survey question. Respondents were asked to indicate if their local government’s revenues over the past three years have "Declined a great deal," "Declined somewhat," "Stayed about the same," "Increased somewhat," or "Increased a great deal." In addition, six control variables from questions were used in the modeling to control other factors that might influence the responses. The control variables used were 1.) Economic Condition – to control for local economic variability; 2.) Population – to control for variability in the size of the jurisdictions; 3.) City or County – to control for the type of jurisdiction; 4.) Tenure – controlling for the length of time in Glass Slipper - Page 8 office of the respondent; 5.) Political Ideology – controlling for ideological influences of the respondents. Economic Condition This variable controls for current economic improvement in the reporting jurisdiction affecting responses. It was measured by a single survey question. It asked the respondent to indicate if the current economic condition in the city/county is "Excellent (4)," "Good (3)," "Fair (2)," or "Poor (1)." Population This variable controls for population differences among jurisdictions. It was taken from a survey question that categories responding jurisdiction population from "Less than 5,000 (1)" to "500,000 or more (8)." City/County This variable is a dummy variable to control for the differences in jurisdiction type. It was coded and scored as City=1, County-0. Tenure To remove the effects of tenure in office by the respondent a question was used to control for this factor. It asked the number of years a respondent has been in the current position. Political Ideology It is also necessary to control for differences in political views of the respondents. Accordingly, they were asked to self-describe their political views from "Very conservative (1)" to "Very Liberal (5)." Analysis Frequencies were computed for the variables detailed above. A multivariate analysis was performed. On the dependent variables, t tests and chi square tests were performed to see if there is significant difference between cities and counties. The results show no difference between the two types of local governments. In addition Findings Two categories of results are presented. First, a descriptive analysis of the six dependent variables is presented in univariate frequency tables. Second, multivariate Ordered Logit Regression Models are presented for the six dependent variables to help better understand the attitudes of the respondents toward the actions of state and federal governments as well as the respondents’ overall perceptions of the relations ship of their government and the state/federal government. In addition, these latter models test the relationships of the variables to see whether the Hypothesis outlined above about relationships among the variables are indeed confirmed. Descriptive Analyses The tables following present the frequencies computed for the six dependent variables. Each table presents the number of respondents reporting from none to all four possibilities for the variables above. Table 1 presents the results for the responses regarding reduction of State support in the categories of funding, reduction of authority, increase of unfunded mandates or increase of unfunded responsibilities. Glass Slipper - Page 9 Table 1: State Support Reduction Number of Freq. Percent State Resource Reductions 0 41 6.18 1 85 12.82 2 123 18.55 3 182 27.45 4 232 34.99 Total 663 100.00 Cum. 6.18 19.00 37.56 65.01 100.00 As Table 1 indicates, 663 respondents answered the questions that make up the variable. Of those responding, 622 or over 90 percent indicated one or more reductions in support by their state government. 442 or over about 65 percent responded affirmatively to experiencing three to four reductions. Table 2 presents the results for the responses regarding reduction of Federal support in the categories of funding, reduction of authority, increase of unfunded mandates or increase of unfunded responsibilities. Table 2: Federal Support Reduction Number of Freq. Percent Federal Resource Reductions 0 204 30.77 1 218 32.88 2 113 17.04 3 81 12.22 4 47 7.09 Total 663 100.00 Cum. 30.77 63.65 80.69 92.91 100.00 Conversely from Table 1, as can be seen on Table 2, almost 204 or about 30 percent of the respondents indicate no reduction at all in federal support and 331 respondents or just barely half report undergoing zero to two reductions from the federal government. Unlike the states, only 128 or less than one fifth (19 percent) of respondents report experiencing three to four federal support reductions. Like the foregoing tables, Table 3 presents the results for the responses regarding State increase of funding, increase of authority, decrease of unfunded mandates or decrease of unfunded responsibilities. Glass Slipper - Page 10 Table 3: State Support Increase Number of State Freq. Percent Supports 0 559 84.31 1 81 12.22 2 18 2.71 3 4 0.60 4 1 0.15 Total 663 100.00 Cum. 84.31 96.53 99.25 99.85 100.00 When it comes to increases in support, things are somewhat different than in reductions in support and somewhat more similar between the states and the federal governments. As Table 3 makes clear, nearly all of the local governments, 559 or 84 percent, did not experience any increase in state support or attendant reduction of unfunded mandates. Table 4 presents the results for the responses regarding Federal increase of funding, increase of authority, decrease of unfunded mandates or decrease of unfunded responsibilities. Table 4: Federal Support Increase Number of Freq. Percent Federal Supports 0 553 83.40 1 98 14.78 2 11 1.65 3 4 0.60 4 1 0.15 Total 663 100.00 Cum. 84.31 96.53 99.25 99.85 100.00 In these respects, the federal government is almost identical to the states when it comes to support. Nearly all of the respondents, 553 or 83 percent, reported no increase in support. The federal and state governments are close to identical in all other categories. As the results clearly indicate, state government added significantly more burdens to local government than did the federal government in the three years before respondents answered. Nevertheless when it comes adding support for local governments, there is no substantial difference in the change of support between state and federal governments. In other words, although the federal government largely held local governments harmless during this time and held resources at prior levels and did not add burdens, neither level of government increased support to local governments in most cases during the same time. The results of this can be clearly seen in the answers to two other questions asking directly about perceptions of federal and state relations. The tables below summarize the frequencies on two questions on whether or not relationships have improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same for local government and state and federal governments. These results are reported on the other frequency tables below. Glass Slipper - Page 11 Table 5 : Relationship with the State Number of Freq. Percent Federal Supports Worse 401 61.31 Same 217 33.18 Improved 36 5.50 Total 654 100.00 Cum. 61.31 94.50 100.00 As shown on Table 5, perceptions of the respondents are that the relationship with the state and their local jurisdiction has worsened. Almost two thirds, 401 or 61 percent, of the 654 respondents answering report this. Only 36 or a little under 6 percent think things have improved and only about a third, 217 or 33 percent, even think things are the same. Almost 95 percent in total think things between the localities and states are the same or worse and it is almost two to one that see things worse rather than the same. Table 6 : Relationship with the Federal Gov’t Number of Freq. Percent Cum. Federal Supports Worse 176 26.55 26.55 Same 449 67.72 94.27 Improved 38 5.73 100.00 Total 654 100.00 As might be expected, perceived relations with the federal government is nearly the inverse. Only 176 of the 654 respondents, barely over one quarter or about 27 percent, think the relationship with the respondents has worsened. The bulk of them believe that things with the federal government are primarily the same with a sold two thirds, almost 68%, reporting this. Interestingly, just about as many of the local government administrators thought that things were improving with the federal government as they did with the states (38 compared with 36 for the states). In sum, 61 percent of local governments think their relationship with state became worse, while 27% of them think their relationship with federal government became worse. Multivariate Analyses The first four Tables below 7, 8, 9, and 10 examine the factors that explain the reduction or increase in state or federal support of the local government test Hypothesis 2. This hypothesis captures the circumstances that as a local government’s revenues decline, the federal government provides more support by offering more funding and authority. Also, at the same time conversely, state governments reduce funding and authority while adding more burdens to local governments. Four dependent variables are involved in this hypothesis, thus four models are offered. Although the variables are measured in counts of the total number of reductions, one of them (number of resources reduction from state) does not follow a Poisson distribution, thus a Poisson model or negative binomial model is not appropriate. Actually, the number of resource reductions from the state and the number of resource reductions from the federal government can be treated as ordinal variables. Thus, two ordered Logit models (Tables 9 & 10) are performed for these two outcome variables. Glass Slipper - Page 12 Table 7: Hypothesis 2 - Reduction in State Support Coef. Std. Err. z Revenue -.2590847 .0799504 -3.24 Change Economic -.1434539 .1175326 -1.22 Condition Economic .0288757 .1256186 0.23 Improvement Population .1693422 .0495851 3.42 City/County .1824612 .1641022 1.11 P>|z| 0.001 [95% Conf. Interval] -.4157846 -.1023848 0.222 -.3738136 .0869059 0.818 -.2173322 .2750835 0.001 0.266 .0721573 -.1391731 .2665271 .5040956 Table 7 shows that there is a significant negative relationship of the state’s reduction of support while controlling for the impact of a local government’s economic condition, economic change, and population. That is, as a local government’s revenues decline, state government will reduce funding and authority while adding more burdens to local government. This supports Hypothesis 2. Table 8: Hypothesis 2 - Reduction in Federal Support Coef. Std. Err. z Revenue .0454891 .0795394 0.57 Change Economic .1868789 . .120947 1.55 Condition Economic -.5314595 .1315713 -4.04 Improvement Population .0653095 .0481603 1.36 City/County .4873421 .1628671 2.99 P>|z| 0.567 [95% Conf. Interval] -.1104054 .2013835 0.122 -.0501728 .4239306 0.000 -.7893345 -.2735845 0.175 0.003 -.0290829 .1681285 .1597018 .8065557 With respect to federal support, Table 8 shows somewhat different results for Hypothesis 2. Federal government support has a slight but not significant positive impact. That is, as a local government reports declining revenues, the federal government does NOT reduce funding and authority and does not add more burdens to local government. As in Table 7, the results control for reported current economic condition, economic change, population, and type of jurisdiction. Table 9: Hypothesis 2 - Increase in State Support Coef. Std. Err. z Revenue .1389743 .1180891 1.18 Change Economic .1179983 .1778066 0.66 Condition Economic -.1506095 .1921924 -0.78 Improvement Population .058486 .0720478 0.81 City/County -.1559709 .2446914 -0.64 P>|z| 0.239 [95% Conf. Interval] -.0924761 .3704247 0.507 -.2304961 .4664928 0.433 -.5272997 .2260806 0.417 0.524 -.082725 -.6355572 .199697 .3236154 Table 9 depicts the third Model run that looks at the relationship of local government revenue decline with an Increase in the state support variables. The results on this table are not significant. In short, it Glass Slipper - Page 13 shows that, as a local government’s revenues decline, state governments do not provide more supports of funding and authority variables. Table 10: Hypothesis 2 - Increase in Federal Support Coef. Std. Err. z Revenue -.0285571 .119887 -0.24 Change Economic .0810638 .1789347 0.45 Condition Economic .0643527 .1915396 0.34 Improvement Population .0782835 .0719339 1.09 City/County -.4035207 .2508933 -1.61 P>|z| 0.812 [95% Conf. Interval] -.2635313 .2064171 0.651 -.2696417 .4317694 0.737 -.3110581 .4397634 0.276 0.108 -.0627044 -.8952625 .2192713 088221 Table 10 reports the results of the fourth model run for Hypothesis 2. is It shows that, as a local government’s revenues decline, the federal government does not provide more support by offering more funding or authority. Nevertheless it is significant, but merely so. This does not support Hypothesis 2 and therefore, Hypothesis 2 is partially supported only as shown in the first two tables and the second two which support and do not respectively Tables 11 and 12 use two models to test Hypothesis 1: As a local government’s revenues decline, its relationship with the state becomes more negative and its relationship with the federal government becomes more positive and Hypothesis 3: A Local government’s relationships with the federal and state governments depend on the change of support from the two levels of government respectively: In Table 11, local government’s relationship with the state is the dependent variable and an Ordered Logit model is used to analyze the data. This model is significant. The coefficient of Revenue Change is significant positive, indicating that, as a local government’s revenues decline, its relationship with the state becomes significantly more negative. In addition, the coefficient of Reduced State Support is significantly negative. This indicates that a Local government’s relationship with state government will be significantly worse as the state reduces resources and adds more burdens on the local government. Moreover, the coefficient of Reduced Federal Support is positively significant. This means that a Local government’s relationship with state government will be significantly better as the federal government reduces resources and adds burdens on the local government. Conversely, the coefficient of Increased State Support is positive but not significant. On average, a local government’s relationship with state government will be better as the state government increases support to the local government; however, this impact is not statistically significant. The coefficient of Increased Federal Support is negative but not significant. Controls for Population, Jurisdiction Type, and Political Ideology of the reporting administrator seems not to influence these outcomes. Glass Slipper - Page 14 Table 11: Hypotheses 1 & 3 – Relationship with the State Coef. Std. Err. z Revenue .24408 .1161872 2.10 Change Reduced State -.9386689 .1029837 -9.11 Support Reduced .3273858 .0976164 3.35 Federal Support Increased State .3740501 .2756224 1.36 Support Increased -.0014687 .3102417 -0.00 Federal Support Economic -.0420321 .1686431 -0.25 Condition Economic -.3123342 .1847631 -1.69 Improvement Population .160825 .0700964 2.29 City/County .1013982 .2405731 0.42 Tenure -.043251 0163424 -2.65 Political -.2655355 .130624 -2.03 Ideology P>|z| 0.036 [95% Conf. Interval] 0163574 .4718027 0.000 -1.140513 -.7368245 0.001 .1360613 .5187104 0.175 -.1661599 .91426 0.996 -.6095313 .6065939 0.803 -.3725665 .2885024 0.091 -.6744632 .0497949 0.022 0.673 0.008 0.042 .0234386 -.3701163 -.0752815 -.5215539 .2982114 .5729127 -.0112206 -.0095171 Table 12 presents the results of the model testing the local government’s relationship with the federal government as the dependent variable. In this Table too an Ordered Logit model is applied. Like Table 11 the model reported on Table 11 is significant. The coefficient of Revenue Change is negative but not significant, indicating that, as a local government’s revenues decline, its relationship with the federal government becomes more positive on average. Nevertheless, this association is not statistically significant. Likewise, the coefficient of Reduced State Support is negative and not significant. The coefficient of Reduced Federal Support is negative and it is significant. This means that as reported by the respondents in this data, a local government’s relationship with the federal government will be perceived as significantly worse as the federal government reduces resources and adds burdens to the local government. The coefficient of Increased State Support is negative and is not significant. Table 12 below indicates that the coefficient of Increased Federal Support is positive and it is also significant. In effect, what this means is that as local government’s relationship with the federal government will be better off as it receives more support from the federal government. Glass Slipper - Page 15 Table 12: Hypotheses 1 & 3 – Relationship with the Federal Government Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| Revenue -.1311011 .1141423 -1.15 0.251 Change Reduced State -.0733047 .0970775 0.76 0.450 Support Reduced -.7477991 .0980292 -7.63 0.000 Federal Support Increased State -.2613756 .2948751 -0.89 0.375 Support Increased 1.189616 .3390225 3.51 0.000 Federal Support Economic .0384144 .1706749 0.23 0.822 Condition Economic .3284183 .1809179 1.82 0.069 Improvement Population .1160427 .072642 1.60 0.110 City/County -.1900872 .2363366 -0.80 0.421 Tenure -.0072861 .0149408 -0.49 0.626 Political .0854533 .1312403 0.65 0.515 Ideology [95% Conf. Interval] -.3548159 .0926137 -.2635731 .1169638 -.9399327 -.5556655 -.8393202 .316569 .5251437 1.854087 -.2961023 .3729311 -.0261742 .6830108 -.0263331 -.6532984 -.0365696 -.1717729 .2584184 .273124 .0219973 .3426795 The data in this study largely confirm the hypotheses. The sample of local government managers, no matter the state of their jurisdiction’s recovery, population size, their personal political ideology, or their length of time in office have largely negative attitudes about their state governments and much more positive ones about the federal government. This seems to occur due to two additional factors. First, state governments, depending on the federal government as well as their own economies just like local governments, are seen by respondents as having reduced support to localities by reducing financial backing, as well as adding constraints, and not reducing responsibilities. Second, the perceptions of respondents indicate that as a group they do not see the federal government as increasing support, but they do not see the federal government as reducing support. This is contrary and the obverse of the view of the state governments. Also, the data shows that while the perceived relationship of the local governments with the state governments has become more negative, the relationship with the federal government has not and this is largely due to the perception that the state governments have both reduced support and not increased it whereas the federal government has only not increased it. Discussion: Federalism and IGR as a Fairy Tale - Cinderella Federalism? How should these data be interpreted? Perhaps, taken together, they indicate that from the point of view of local government managers, the prevalent metaphors and theories of US Federalism and the IGR system do not capture their intergovernmental reality. Maybe, even more clearly, they do not seem to lend much credence about newer notions like “collaborative” or picket fence federalism.” If the implicit notions of “relationships,” whether political or professional, that are found in the latter ideas were dominant, then the data would not so clearly portray a dependence of attitudes on support. Moreover, there is nothing in the data that suggests that local governments are looking for ways to adjust the old IGR system with joint and collaborative formal innovations, for example new regional governance structures or local buying cooperatives. Glass Slipper - Page 16 An important point about the data in this study that needs to be emphasized is that they do not report factual claims about reduced or status quo support for local governments from the other levels, but rather are assertions about the local perceptions of the behavior of federal and state governments. This is important for two reasons. First, if as Dilger (2000) suggests, what participants in the federal system think are the ground facts is of utmost importance and conditions their attitudes about policy in the system, then these perceptions need to be matched against reality in further research. Second, and more importantly for this research, the perceptions of local government managers themselves are likely to endure beyond the changes in the factual landscape. That is, behavior of these actors in federalism may be best interpreted for some time to come by their attitudes conditioned in the Great Recession and the stories which they tell themselves. The data suggest that from the standpoint of local governments, a better way to capture the dynamics of the post Great Recession federal and IGR system might be to cast it not as a metaphor as it has been in the past, but as an extended metaphor or allegory. It has been pointed out by many authors that stories have the advantage over simple metaphorical models – whether visual or aural – of capturing not only behavior, but also attitudes and even hopes and dreams (Hummel, 1991). Moreover, stories can capture history as well as the present or even the future. In particular, the story might be told as a specific fairytale: the Story of Cinderella. The data in this study from the point of view of local governments are the story of “Cinderella Federalism.” Been to the Ball Like Cinderella, U.S. local governments have been to “the Ball” and are waiting for “Prince Charming” to return while they “scrub floors” under the watchful eye of their “Wicked Stepmother.” “The Ball” was the earlier period of U.S. Federalism and IGR most often referred to as “Cooperative Federalism” and worked out, implemented, and administered through the relationships implicit in “Picket Fence” and “Executive” Federalism. The “Ball” was the thriving period of U.S. Federalism in which a robust national economy and national policy on grants to the states and localities created much of what we see as the IGR system today. It is especially tempting to identify “the Ball” with the Clinton years when the federal deficit was under control and local governments received much of their assistance directly from the federal government without much state intervention. The Wicked Stepmother and the Chores Who is the “Wicked Stepmother?” The data indicate that it is none other than the states who continue to force poor Cinderella to clean and scrub – that is deliver the bulk of needed services – as they pass regulatory and governance burdens ranging from election administration, environmental regulation and public safety (emergency management, law enforcement, corrections) burdens to the local governments without concomitant funding. This habit of carrying out the bidding of the “Wicked Stepmother” was developed by poor local government Cinderella prior to attending the ball through the development of a dependence on the states for their funding. As Nathan (2006) points out: In the 1980s, when the pendulum of social policy nationally swung toward conservatism, there was a similar spurt in state activism in response to President Reagan’s domestic policies to cut domestic spending. States reshaped programs to reflect priorities, increased the funding of programs in areas in which the federal government become less active, and assumed more control over the activities of local government’s nonprofit organizations. In these ways and others, states expanded their influence vis-a-vis the federal government and in their relationships with local governments Glass Slipper - Page 17 Mostly, what local governments are doing is continuing to “scrub floors” (reducing costs and delivering services) while they wait for Prince Charming to return and take them away. This data in this study could be portrayed as showing local governments to be somewhat resentful that tasks have been increased by the states and prior funding withdrawn. In short, local governments find themselves continuing to work for the states, but not being supported in it. Waiting for Prince Charming Of course, “Prince Charming” is the federal government itself, who local governments hope, will arrive to fit the “glass slipper” of financial assistance onto the dainty foot of the “Cinderella local governments” and make them into Princesses. Then they can tap the royal treasury to pay servants (employees) to scrub floors (deliver services), and take care of the castle (infrastructure, health and pension benefits). This point too may capture the attitudes of local governments in the data in this study. Resentment is not directed at the federal government, but at the states. Perhaps, it is going beyond the data to cast the respondents at hopeful about their rescue by the federal government and the future, but clearly they have a more positive attitude about federal support. Whether, this is a lingering halo effect or hope for the future would take additional research to confirm. Conclusion It may be too early to tell whether Prince Charming will return, but slow economic growth, continued weak job expansion, and international turmoil do not present a rosy picture for the near future for local governments. The usefulness of the allegory, as indicated in passing above, is not that it captures the current facts only, but that it might be extended into the future. It is just possible that Cinderella will never get out bondage or that she must figure out how to “run-away” and find new prospects. In reality this potential outcome could take the form of the increased attempts at local economic development and even international trade seen in some local jurisdictions to the greater interlocal collaboration that has been repeatedly heralded. This research points out four things using a historical view of portrayals of U.S. Federalism and IGR, data from local government managers, and a final allegory. First, that while illustrative and analytically useful, traditional metaphors and models of U.S. Federalism and IGR are somewhat static and do not capture reality well, under-portray the local point of view. It is not clear that this can be “fixed” in any way, but rather needs to be recollected in application of such descriptions. Second, that stories may be useful complements to these metaphors and models of U.S. Federalism and IGR because they can narrate the metaphorical snapshots and develop accounts that include current facts and changes in them. Third, that attitudes about the federal and IGR system matter and endure in government actors. Even though their behavior is paramount for explanation, explaining it requires some understanding of what they see when they are acting and to what they are reacting. Fourth, that U.S. Federalism and IGR are today in a period of reconfiguration and challenge as they were after the Great Depression. What cannot be determined just yet is whether the “Glass Slipper” is cracked or solid and whether in the long run it will fit. Glass Slipper - Page 18 References Belmonte, R. M. (1973). 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