Business Statistics (BK/IBA) Introduction BS 1 Introduction Contents • Why statistics • Set-up of the course BS 2 Introduction Why statistics • “Statistics is all that stuff with flipping coins. Why study it for business administration?” • Statistics is much more: it is “the study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data.” (Wikipedia) • You need theory and skills for • • • • • marketing business plans logisitics and planning risk calculations etc. • Two examples: BS 3 Introduction Why statistics • regression analysis • −0.12 −2.11 ∗ • < .05 BS 4 Introduction Why statistics • Wilcoxon test • paired samples • significant BS 5 Introduction Why statistics BS 6 Introduction Set-up of the course • Format: • • • • • • • BS 6 weeks of 2×2 hours of lectures 6 weeks of 2 hours tutorials 3 weeks of work groups 3 digital intermediate tests response class in week 12 written exam (26 March) written retake exam (21 May) 7 Introduction Set-up of the course Week Lecture Tutorial Lecture Work group 1 X X X X 2 X X X 3 X X X 4 X X X 5 X X X 6 X X X 7 BS Test X (digital) X X (digital) X X (digital) X (response) 8 X (written) 15 X (written) 8 Introduction Set-up of the course • Lectures • • • • main theory slides available on the internet be prepared, we’re running fast no compulsory attendance (but part of the exam) • Tutorials • • • • • BS smaller groups exercises available on the internet prepare before class attending class will focus on “how to solve it” compulsory attendance 9 Introduction Set-up of the course • Work groups • smaller groups • in computer rooms • informal set-up: working together, asking fellow students for help, etc. • work on computer skills • compulsory attendance • Response class • • • • BS in last week before the exam (week 7) studying old exam questions all remaining questions and issues no compulsory attendance (but part of the exam) 10 Introduction Set-up of the course • This an intensive course (6 ECTS = 168 hours): • • • • • • 12 lectures = 24 hours 6 tutorials = 12 hours 3 works groups = 6 hours 3 digital tests = 6 hours 1 response class = 4 hours 1 exam = 2 hours • So, work at home: 114 hours ≈ 14 hours/week = 2 hours/day • • • • BS preparing lectures doing exercises reading the book and extra texts studying videos and extra resources 11 Introduction Set-up of the course • Typical success rate last few years: ~50% • • • • • too little attendance no preparation insufficient practicing exclusive focus on old exams relying on commercial support classes • Many changes compared to last years • new subjects (bootstrapping, etc.) • new skills (SPSS, etc.) BS 12 Introduction Set-up of the course • Digital tests • using SPSS for data analysis • Written exam • solving statistical problems • mix of open questions and multiple-choice questions • Please study the VU rules for exams • • • • BS registration in advance, being in time, fraud ID, calculators, no phones “extra time students” etc. 13 Introduction Set-up of the course • Assessment • 3 digital tests on computer skills, graded (absence → 0) • lowest test grade skipped, highest test grades (ܶ and ܶ ) count • written exam, graded (ܹ) • total grade: = ܩ0.7 × ܹ + 0.15 × ܶ + 0.15 × ܶ • rounding to final grade according to faculty rules • retake only for written exam, graded (ܹ ᇱ ) → revised total ( ܩᇱ ) • final grade based on last result (so not on best result) • after one year, the results of the digital tests will be erased • if you fail attendance, 2 points deduction on final grade ()ܩ BS 14 Introduction Set-up of the course • Essentials: • book (Doane & Seward, Applied Statistics in Business & Economics, 4/e) • extra documents (formula sheets, extra theory, etc.) • slides • exercises (and answers) • Connect (see below) • SPSS (see below) • links to videos, websites, etc. BS 15 Introduction Set-up of the course • Connect • digital learning environment of the book • exercises & e-text • register at https://connect.mheducation.com/class/rheijungs-bk_iba-business-statistics-2014_2015 • use access code in book • once registered, come back by logging in at http://connect.mheducation.com/ BS 16 Introduction Set-up of the course • SPSS • software for statistical analysis (widely used!) • used during the three digital tests • available at VU and at https://www.surfspot.nl (10 €) BS 17 Introduction Set-up of the course • Quite like Business Mathematics • except for the BSA-part • Almost everything available through course website • see http://personal.vu.nl/R.Heijungs/QM/ • announcements through Blackboard (https://bb.vu.nl/) • time table and rooms through Roosters (https://roosters.vu.nl/) BS 18 Introduction Set-up of the course • Contact: • Content related: • GoSoapBox (see next slide) • the teacher of your tutorial group or work group • the teacher of your lectures (BK: Heijungs, IBA: Franx) • Organization related: • the course coordinator (BK/IBA: Heijungs) • By e-mail: • always state your programme, year, and course (e.g., IBA1_BS) • do not use BlackBoard’s e-mail, but your VU mail account • At VU: • we’re at the 11th floor with a closed corridor BS 19 Introduction Set-up of the course • Discussion forum • asking questions • upvoting questions • answering questions • https://app.gosoapbox.com/ • BK: 472-770-407 • IBA: 362-710-887 BS 20 Introduction Set-up of the course • Contents • Basics (general mathematical and quantitative skills) • Probability (probability theory, sampling, significance) • Parameters (estimation, confidence intervals, statistical hypotheses tests) • Distributions (discrete and continuous distributions) • Association (contingency tables, regression, ANOVA) BS 21 Introduction