McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Student Investment Fund Stock Report Recommendation: Long‐Term Buy Sector: Consumer Discretionary Sub‐Sector: Fast Food Restaurant HIGHLIGHTS
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
MCD
is a consistent value
creator, as shown by its ability
to deliver year-over-year
increasing NOPAT and FCF
without growing its stock price
above fundamentals.
MCD penetrated the coffee
industry with the introduction
of the McCafé in 2008.
MCD’s lower cost, premium
coffee competes with
Starbucks and is projected to
generate $1 billion in total net
sales each year.
MCD has an established and
expanding presence in high
growth, emerging markets.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
MCD is currently recognized as
the world’s largest revenuegenerating fast food restaurant,
earning over $22 billion in sales
during 2009. Compared to its
major competitors, MCD leads the
industry with 57% market share.
Also in 2009, MCD earned
almost 65% of its total sales in
international markets. Operating
32,500 locations in 117 countries
allows MCD to leverage brand
equity with population growth to
increase revenues worldwide.
Analysts: Heather Gelsinger, Dentin Chapman, Brandon Holle, David Packard
Market Cap: $75.85 billion Dividend Yield: 3.17% P/E Ratio: 15.82 Current Price: $68.01 12‐month target price: $87.73 Beta: 0.65 INVESTMENT THESIS
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Concerns of a sluggish economy in 2010 led us to MCD –
the Student Investment Fund favors large-cap, low beta,
defensive stocks that pay above-average dividends.
MCD has superior financial stability and has provided
shareholders with substantial return on investment —
including a current dividend yield of 3.17%, the highest in
their industry.
MCD vigorously grows its fundamental value drivers
(Dividends, NOPAT and Free Cash Flow) year-over-year.
During the past 10 years of economic decline and
uncertainty, MCD's stock price has appreciated 150%.
Consumer Discretionary is the top performing sector since
the end of January, outperforming the S&P 500 by
roughly 10%
10-YEAR RETURNS
McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Macroeconomic Thesis Plan to Win Consumer spending remains weak, unemployment is hovering around 10%, and real disposable income is decreasing. MCD excels under these conditions by providing high value at a low cost to consumers. In addition, the company's Plan to Win initiatives have positioned it for further increases in market share when the economy improves. MCD is deploying a multi‐billion dollar reimaging budget featuring menu innovations, space redesign and service enhancements to further upgrade its exemplary global brand. This year, MCD plans to spend $1.2 billion solely on reimaging. Moreover, MCD plans to reimage over 85% of its locations by the end of 2011. MCD has increased menu innovation by adding a premium coffee line, the McCafé , and by catering to consumers who prefer healthier options such as salads, yogurt parfaits and chicken products. MCD has increased service enhancement by offering free WiFi, offering food delivery at certain locations, and staying open 24 hours a day in others. These initiatives have already contributed to year‐over‐year revenue growth of 10.5% and global same‐store sales growth of 4.2%, and are expected to fuel above‐average growth for a considerable period of time. International Exposure MCD has diversified its locations by operating over 32,500 restaurants in 117 countries, which decreases the company’s exposure to the intensely competitive fast food industry in the United States. Also, MCD serves an average of 60 million consumers each day. This per‐day figure has increased by $14 million (30%) since 2001 and $2 million over the past year. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD MCD currently divides its revenues into four segments: the United States, Europe, the APMEA (Asia, Pacific, Middle East, and Africa segment), and other countries (i.e. Canada and Latin America and corporate sales). Almost 65% of MCD sales are derived internationally. MCD focuses both on penetrating emerging markets and expanding in developed markets. 2009 Sales By Segment The graph to the right shows MCD’s established presence in both developed and fast growing emerging markets along with the population growth rates.. The blue shaded zones represent MCD's concerted effort to enter emerging markets, where population is growing faster relative to developed markets. MCD expects to build 1,000 restaurants among all of its regional segments during 2010. This strategic move will increase revenue by approximately 2%. We view MCD's efforts to exploit opportunities in these particular markets as a strong positive catalyst, as these areas provide the largest international growth opportunities. Additionally, when an emerging market begins to industrialize, consumers begin to mirror Westerners: they want to purchase Western‐style products in general, and specifically consume more animal protein. These demographics will benefit MCD and its shareholders as it continues to expand its international presence. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Industry Presence Invading Starbucks Territory MCD introduced the McCafé in 2008 and increased its premium coffee product line to include frappes, iced coffees, mochas, and lattes in 2009. Offering premium coffee products for an average of $2 cheaper is advantageous for MCD — they can more easily serve a price sensitive consumer who is focused on value. Additionally, Starbucks currently operates in only 50 countries, compared to MCD's operations in 117 countries. Not only does MCD have an advantage over Starbucks through its appeal to price sensitive consumers, but Starbucks does not compete with MCD in 67 countries. Superior Market Share 2009 Market Share
The fast food industry generated about $160 billion dollars in revenue in 2009. When comparing MCD to its main fast food competitors YUM, WEN and BKC, MCD holds a dominant 57% market share. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Revenue (millions) Profit Margin Dividend Yield ROIC MCD $22,745 20% 3.2% 22% BKC $2,537 8% 1.2% 28% YUM $10,836 10% 2.0% 33% WEN $3,581 0% 1.2% ‐1% SBUX $9,775 4% 0.0% 12% Within the fast food industry, MCD has the highest revenue, more than doubling the total of its closest competitor (YUM). In addition, MCD’s lean cost structure allows for the highest profit margin in the industry. This profit margin allows the company to return more value to its shareholders through dividends, producing the highest dividend yield in the industry and a competitive ROIC. Because MCD has a much larger capital investment than its competitors, earning 22% ROIC on that larger capital base allows them to earn higher economic profits than competitors with higher ROIC but much lower capital investments. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Model Assumptions Our valuation analysis for MCD was conducted using conservative modeling assumptions. Our discounted cash flow model estimates MCD’s intrinsic value at $87.73 per share for 2010, indicating MCD is currently undervalued, even in light of these conservative expectations for its future revenue growth and cost structure. Income Statement Inputs 
Revenue Growth: Despite having a solid five‐year historical growth rate of 4.4%, MCD faced revenue growth of ‐3.3% during 2009. In 2009, MCD saw the adverse affects of a weak consumer spending environment, which was exacerbated by lower disposable income during the recession. o Historical Revenue Growth o Forecasted Revenue Growth 
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Cost of Goods Sold: MCD’s historical average COGS/Sales expense was 64.9%. For our forecast, we decreased COGS/Sales to 61.0%, which was more in line with 2008 and 2009 COGS/Sales of 63.3% and 61.3% respectively. Selling, General & Administrative Expenses: MCD’s historical average SG&A/Sales expense was 10.5%. For our forecast, we decreased SG&A/Sales to 10.0%, which was more in line with 2008 and 2009 SG&A/Sales of 10.0% and 9.8% respectively. Share Growth: In September 2007, MCD announced its plan for a $10 billion share repurchasing program with no specific expiration date. Therefore, we continued MCD’s share growth at −3.0% throughout our forecast which was in line with MCD’s five‐year historical average share growth of −3.5%. Diluted Share Growth: As with share growth, we decreased MCD’s diluted share growth at the same rate of −3.0% which was in line with MCD’s five year historical growth rate of −3.4%. Dividend Growth: MCD has a forecasted dividend yield of 3.17%. Our valuation model grows the dividend payments appropriately to maintain a 3.17% dividend yield throughout the forecast period. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Balance Sheet Inputs: 
Cash: MCD’s five‐year historical average Cash/Sales of 11.6% has been on a downtrend over the past three years. In 2007, 2008 and 2009 MCD had Cash/Sales of 8.7%, 8.8%, and 7.9% respectively. Our forecast repeats the current trend with forecasted Cash/Sales of 8.5%. Weighted Average Cost of Capital Assumptions: A WACC of 7.1% was calculated using  Short‐term debt cost of 1.58%  Long‐term debt cost of 6.10%  Cost of Equity: Cost of Equity of 7.50% was calculated using the following inputs o Risk‐free rate of 4.25% o Market risk premium of 5.00% o Beta of 0.65: Conducting a regression analysis of MCD’s historical returns compared to the market since 2005 yielded a beta of 0.53. To maintain conservatism in our model and allow for reversion to the mean, we increased the beta estimate to 0.65. Long‐term Horizon Value Growth Rate We applied a long‐term horizon growth rate of 3% for MCD to maintain a conservative outlook for the company’s long‐term prospects. A long‐term horizon growth rate of 3% fits with the outlook for US GDP growth. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Financial Analysis In the pursuit of a lean cost structure, MCD has franchised 80% of its restaurants (the remaining 20% are operated by the MCD Corporation). This is illustrated through high profitability, strong value creation, and a wide ROIC‐to‐WACC spread. ROA and ROE ROA Historical Average 11.3% Forecasted Average 13.1%
ROE 23.1% 23.8%
MCD maintains stable level of returns on assets and equity throughout the forecast. The forecasted ROA average is below the 2008 and 2009 ROA values of 15.2% and 15.1% respectively. The forecasted ROE is well below MCD’s 2008 and 2009 return on equity of 32.2% and 32.4% respectively. The reason for the forecasted downtrend in ROE is that the company generates excessive amounts of cash and uses it to pay down long term debt in the forecast. This decreases the equity multiplier throughout the duration of the forecast EPS and DPS growth EPS Historical Average 15.27% Forecasted Average 7.38%
DPS 25.07% 6.31%
MCD has paid a dividend for 34 consecutive years, increasing it every year to its current value of $0.55 per quarter ($2.20/yr). Even when compressed to lower rates for the forecast, MCD manages to grow both earnings per share and dividends per share at sustainable levels through 2019. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Value Creation Metrics NOPAT and Free Cash Flow (millions) NOPAT FCF Historical Average $3,542 Forecasted Average $5,460
$4,309
$3,920 Over the past five years, MCD has generated large positive free cash flow. Our forecast has MCD’s free cash flow growing at an average annual growth rate of 4.25%. Historically, MCD has grown its NOPAT at an average rate of 11.33%. Following a slight reduction in NOPAT in 2010, we forecast NOPAT to grow at an average yearly growth rate of 3.94%. Economic Value Added In 2009, MCD’s EVA was $3.24. Our forecast tightens EVA to $2.80 billion and $2.91 billion in 2010 and 2011, respectively. This decrease is due to our conservative modeling assumptions. Market Value Added In 2009, MCD’s MVA was $76.84 billion. For 2010, this metric grew to $79.16 billion. MCD’s MVA is projected to continue its growth at a yearly rate of 2.8% through 2019. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Value Spread: ROIC to WACC ROIC Historical average return on invested capital was 16.4% for MCD. In 2009, MCD generated their highest return on capital at 21.8%. For the forecast, ROIC was squeezed to an average 19.4% through 2019. WACC Weighted‐average cost of capital was calculated at 7.1%. As described above, the risk‐free rate, beta, and market risk premium were increased to maintain conservatism. Value Spread (ROIC to WACC) MCD’s historical average value spread was 9.3%. In 2009, MCD value spread was at its peak of 14.7%. MCD forecasted value spread averages 12.3%. Even with a conservative valuation model, MCD displays considerable potential to further increase its value creation beyond our forecasted ROIC‐WACC spread measure. McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Financial Stability Altman Z‐Score Test for Bankruptcy Historically, MCD scored an average of 5.20, which is well above the safe zone. MCD also scored in the same zone for the forecast with an average Altman Z‐Score of 6.77. Piotroski’s Financial Fitness Scorecard Historically, MCD scored an average of 9 out of 11. MCD’s average score for the forecasted years was also 9 out of 11, which suggests continued financial stability through 2019. Other Analyst Recommendations Both Argus and Ned Davis recommend MCD as a “Long‐Term Buy” while Standard and Poor’s recommends a hold with a three‐star rating (out of five). Argus Long‐term Buy Ned Davis Long‐term Buy Standard and Poor’s 3‐star rating McDonald’s Corporation NYSE: MCD Recommendation Summary Due to MCD’s strong dividend, stable balance sheet, and consistent ability to create shareholder value, we rate MCD as an attractive buy and hold stock for the Student Investment Fund. 
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The purchase of MCD stock would ensure a 3.17% dividend yield for the Student Investment Fund. MCD is in the process of implementing its Plan to Win, which will focus on upgrading the current brand through reimaging, menu innovation, and service enhancement. MCD has plans to reimage 2,000 locations, 1,000 in Europe, 600 in APMEA and 400 in the U.S. in 2010. MCD also has plans to open more than 1,000 new restaurants in 2010, adding almost 2% to top line revenue. MCD offers a low correlation coefficient to the stocks held in the fund. Excluding the VTI, MCD does not have a correlation coefficient over .49 with any stock held in the fund. MCD stock has returned over 150% to shareholders in the past 10 years. With a continued ability to grow their net operating profit after tax and free cash flow on a year‐by‐year basis, MCD market price has never been able to catch up to the intrinsic value of the firm. Our forecast represents MCD performance in a less than ideal environment. MCD should meet and likely surpass our conservative modeling assumptions making our discounted cash flow price a conservative estimate. MCD Financial Analysis, Page 1 of 8
A
B
C
D
E
1
2
3
Enter Firm Ticker
MCD
4
values in millions
5
Historical Income Statements
6
Enter first financial statement year in cell B6
7
8
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
9
Gross profit
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
Forecasting Percentages
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2005
19,117
12,940
20,895
13,963
22,787
14,881
23,522
14,883
22,745
13,953
6,177
6,932
7,905
8,639
8,792
2,118
0
2,296
0
2,367
0
2,356
0
2,234
0
Revenue Growth
COGS % of Sales
SG&A % of Sales
R&D % of Sales
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
67.7%
9.3%
66.8%
9.1%
65.3%
3.2%
63.3%
-3.3%
61.3%
4.4%
64.9%
11.1%
0.0%
11.0%
0.0%
10.4%
0.0%
10.0%
0.0%
9.8%
0.0%
10.5%
0.0%
10
11
SG&A expense
Research & Development
12
Depreciation/Amortization
0
0
0
0
0
D&A % of Sales
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
13
Interest expense (income), operating
0
0
0
0
0
Inc. Exp. Oper.
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
14
Non-recurring expenses
128
280
1,775
Exp. Non-rec
0.7%
1.3%
7.8%
-0.2%
-0.5%
1.8%
15
Other operating expenses
0
0
0
0
0
Other exp.
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3,984
4,433
3,879
6,443
6,841
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
0
(29)
0
(20)
0
(12)
0
(27)
16
Operating Income
17
Interest income (expense), non-operating
18
19
Gain (loss) on sale of assets
Other income, net
20
21
Income before tax
Income tax
N
Forecasted income statement items are based on 5 years of historical average ratios unless a value is entered in the
manual cell, in which case the manual entry overrides the historical average. The idea is to consider whether the
historical average is truly representative of what the firm can achieve in the future.
(49)
(116)
3,660
4,154
3,572
6,158
1,082
1,288
1,237
1,845
1,936
Int. inc. non-oper.
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Gain (loss) asset sales
Other income, net
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
29.6%
31.0%
34.6%
30.0%
29.8%
31.0%
Manual
61.0%
10.0%
6,487
Tax rate
22
Income after tax
2,578
2,866
2,335
4,313
4,551
23
Minority interest
0
0
0
0
0
Minority interest
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
24
25
Equity in affiliates
U.S. GAAP adjustment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Equity in affiliates
U.S. GAAP adjust.
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2,578
2,866
2,335
4,313
4,551
25
678
60
0
0
2,602
3,544
2,395
4,313
4,551
Share growth
-2.1%
-3.7%
-5.2%
-3.1%
-3.5%
-3.0%
Diluted share growth
-1.8%
-3.2%
-5.4%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-3.0%
26
27
Net income before extraordinary items
Extraordinary items, total
28
Net income
29
Total adjustments to net income
30
Basic weighted average shares
31
Basic EPS excluding extraordinary items
32
Basic EPS including extraordinary items
33
Diluted weighted average shares
34
0
0
0
0
0
1,260
1,234
1,188
1,127
1,092
2.05
2.32
1.96
3.83
4.17
2.06
2.87
2.02
3.83
4.17
1,274
1,252
1,212
1,146
1,107
Diluted EPS excluding extraordinary items
2.02
2.29
1.93
3.76
4.11
35
Diluted EPS including extraordinary items
2.04
2.83
1.98
3.76
4.11
36
Dividends per share -- common stock
0.67
1.00
1.50
1.63
2.05
37
Gross dividends -- common stock
842
1,217
1,766
1,823
2,236
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Retained earnings
1,760
2,328
630
2,490
2,316
Data Source: Thomson/Reuters
Extrordinary items
Adjustments to NI
Dividend growth
44.5%
45.1%
3.3%
22.6%
27.6%
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 2 of 8
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
31.45%
3.29%
5.52%
2.51%
5.52%
3.02%
2.06%
3.29%
5.58%
3.59%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
6.00%
5.00%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
1
2
3
Dividend Growth (Yield set @ 3.17%)
4
Year-by-year revenue growth
Forecasted Income Statements -- 10 Years
5
6
year
7
8
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
9
Gross profit
2010E
2011E
23,541
14,360
2012E
24,482
14,934
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
25,584
15,606
27,119
16,543
28,475
17,370
29,899
18,238
31,244
19,059
32,494
19,821
33,631
20,515
34,640
21,131
9,181
9,548
9,978
10,576
11,105
11,661
12,185
12,673
13,116
13,510
10
11
SG&A expense
Research & Development
2,354
0
2,448
0
2,558
0
2,712
0
2,848
0
2,990
0
3,124
0
3,249
0
3,363
0
3,464
0
12
Depreciation/Amortization
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
Interest expense (income), operating
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
Non-recurring expenses
428
445
465
493
517
543
568
590
611
629
15
16
Other operating expenses
Operating Income
17
Interest income (expense), non-operating
18
19
Gain (loss) on sale of assets
Other income, net
20
21
Income before tax
Income tax
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,399
6,655
6,955
7,372
7,741
8,128
8,493
8,833
9,142
9,416
(614)
(607)
(607)
(624)
(625)
(620)
(598)
(562)
(516)
(456)
0
(11)
0
(11)
0
(11)
0
(12)
0
(13)
0
(13)
0
(14)
0
(15)
0
(15)
0
(15)
5,774
6,037
6,336
6,736
7,103
7,494
7,881
8,257
8,611
1,790
1,872
1,964
2,088
2,202
2,323
2,443
2,560
2,670
8,945
2,773
22
Income after tax
3,984
4,166
4,372
4,647
4,901
5,171
5,438
5,697
5,942
6,172
23
Minority interest
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
25
Equity in affiliates
U.S. GAAP adjustment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,984
4,166
4,372
4,647
4,901
5,171
5,438
5,697
5,942
6,172
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,984
4,166
4,372
4,647
4,901
5,171
5,438
5,697
5,942
6,172
26
27
Net income before extraordinary items
Extraordinary items, total
28
Net income
29
Total adjustments to net income
30
Basic weighted average shares
31
32
33
Diluted weighted average shares
34
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,059
1,028
997
967
938
910
882
856
830
805
Basic EPS excluding extraordinary items
3.76
4.05
4.39
4.81
5.23
5.68
6.16
6.66
7.16
7.66
Basic EPS including extraordinary items
3.76
4.05
4.39
4.81
5.23
5.68
6.16
6.66
7.16
7.66
1,074
1,042
1,011
980
951
922
895
868
842
817
Diluted EPS excluding extraordinary items
3.71
4.00
4.33
4.74
5.15
5.61
6.08
6.56
7.06
7.56
35
Diluted EPS including extraordinary items
3.71
4.00
4.33
4.74
5.15
5.61
6.08
6.56
7.06
7.56
36
Dividends per share -- common stock
2.77
2.95
3.21
3.40
3.69
3.92
4.13
4.40
4.78
5.11
37
Gross dividends -- common stock
2,939
3,035
3,203
3,283
3,464
3,569
3,643
3,763
3,973
4,115
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Retained earnings
1,045
1,130
1,169
1,364
1,436
1,602
1,795
1,934
1,969
2,057
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 3 of 8
AA
AB
AC
AD
AE
1
2
3
Enter Firm Ticker
MCD
4
values in millions
5
Historical Balance Sheets
6
year
7
8
Assets
Cash & equivalents
9
Short term investments
10
11
AF
AG
AH
AI
AJ
AK
AL
AM
2005
Forecasting Percentages
2006
2007
2008
2009
2005
2007
2008
2009
Average
2,128
1,981
2,063
1,796
22.3%
10.2%
8.7%
8.8%
7.9%
11.6%
0
0
0
0
0
ST Invest. % of Sales
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Receivables, total
Inventory, total
794
144
806
112
1,054
125
931
112
1,060
106
Receivables % Sales
Inventory % of Sales
4.2%
0.8%
3.9%
0.5%
4.6%
0.5%
4.0%
0.5%
4.7%
0.5%
4.3%
0.6%
12
Prepaid expenses
640
319
422
412
454
Pre. Exp. % of Sales
3.3%
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
2.0%
2.1%
13
Other current assets, total
380
1,826
0
0
0
Other CA % of Sales
2.0%
8.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.1%
6,219
5,192
3,582
3,518
3,416
19,573
19,438
20,985
20,255
21,532
Net PPE % of Sales
102.4%
93.0%
92.1%
86.1%
94.7%
93.7%
1,924
2,074
2,301
2,237
2,425
Goodwill % of Sales
10.1%
9.9%
10.1%
9.5%
10.7%
10.1%
0
0
0
0
0
Intangibles % of Sales
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
LT Invest. % of Sales
Notes Rec. % of Sales
5.4%
0.0%
5.0%
0.0%
5.1%
0.0%
5.2%
0.0%
5.3%
0.0%
5.2%
0.0%
Total Current Assets
15
Property, plant and equipment (net)
16
Goodwill
17
Intangibles
18
19
Long term investments
Notes receivable -- long term
1,035
0
1,035
0
1,156
0
1,222
0
1,213
0
20
Other long term assets, total
1,237
1,235
1,367
1,230
1,639
21
Other assets, total
0
0
0
0
0
29,989
28,975
29,392
28,462
30,225
624
0
620
0
636
0
22
23
Total assets
Accounts payable
Payable/accrued
678
0
669
0
26
Accrued expenses
1,317
1,460
1,635
1,633
1,855
27
Notes payable/short term debt
544
0
1,127
0
0
28
Current portion of LT debt/Capital leases
659
18
865
32
18
29
Other current liabilities
911
806
248
253
480
30
Total Current Liabilities
4,108
2,952
4,499
2,538
2,989
31
Long term debt, total
8,934
8,390
7,310
10,186
10,560
32
Deferred income tax
949
1,076
961
945
1,279
33
Minority interest
0
0
0
0
0
34
Other liabilities, total
852
1,098
1,343
1,410
1,363
14,843
13,516
14,112
15,079
16,191
Total Liabilities
36
Preferred stock (redeemable)
37
Preferred stock (unredeemable)
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Other LT ass. % Sales
6.5%
5.9%
6.0%
5.2%
7.2%
6.2%
Other assets % Sales
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Acc. Payable % Sales
Pay/accured % Sales
3.5%
0.0%
3.2%
0.0%
2.7%
0.0%
2.6%
0.0%
2.8%
0.0%
3.0%
0.0%
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
24
25
35
Cash % of Sales
2006
4,261
14
Common stock
Additonal paid-in capital
Retained earnings (accumluated deficit)
Treasury stock -- common
ESOP Debt Guarantee
Other equity, total
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Diluted weighted average shares
Total preferred shares outstanding
AN
Forecasted balance sheet items are based on 5 years of historical average ratios unless a value is entered in the
manual cell, in which case the manual entry overrides the historical average. The idea is to consider whether the
historical average is truly representative of what the firm can achieve in the future.
0
17
2,720
23,516
(10,374)
0
(733)
15,146
29,989
1,263
0
0
17
3,445
25,846
(13,552)
0
(297)
15,458
28,975
1,204
0
0
17
4,227
26,462
(16,762)
(38)
1,375
15,280
29,392
1,165
0
0
17
4,600
28,954
(20,289)
(98)
199
13,383
28,462
1,115
0
Acc. Exp. % of Sales
6.9%
7.0%
7.2%
6.9%
8.2%
7.2%
Notes payable % Sales
2.8%
0.0%
4.9%
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
Curr. debt % of Sales
3.4%
0.1%
3.8%
0.1%
0.1%
1.5%
Other curr liab % Sales
4.8%
3.9%
1.1%
1.1%
2.1%
2.6%
Def. inc. tax % Sales
5.0%
5.2%
4.2%
4.0%
5.6%
4.8%
Min. Int. % of Sales
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Other liab. % of Sales
4.5%
5.3%
5.9%
6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
LT debt % of Sales
0
17
4,854
31,271
(22,855)
(135)
882
14,034
30,225
1,077
0
The model uses the more conservative diluted common shares
number for total shares outstanding.
Diluted share growth
Preferred share growth
-4.7%
-3.2%
-4.3%
-3.5%
-3.9%
Manual
8.5%
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 4 of 8
AO
1
2
3
AP
AQ
AR
AS
AT
AU
AV
AW
AX
AY
AZ
Model maintains a fixed ratio of ST debt/sales. LT debt is adjusted for shortfalls/surpluses of AFN. Every time something changes that affects the forecasts, set row 49
4
5
Forecasted Balance Sheets -- 10 Years
6
year
7
8
Assets
Cash & equivalents
9
Short term investments
10
11
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2,001
2,081
2,175
2,305
2,420
2,541
2,656
2,762
2,859
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Receivables, total
Inventory, total
1,001
131
1,041
136
1,088
142
1,153
151
1,211
159
1,271
166
1,328
174
1,381
181
1,430
187
1,473
193
12
Prepaid expenses
493
513
536
568
596
626
654
680
704
725
13
Other current assets, total
505
525
549
582
611
641
670
697
722
743
4,131
4,296
4,489
4,759
4,996
5,246
5,482
5,702
5,901
6,078
22,047
22,929
23,961
25,399
26,668
28,002
29,262
30,432
31,498
32,443
2,367
2,461
2,572
2,726
2,863
3,006
3,141
3,267
3,381
3,482
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
Total Current Assets
2,944
15
Property, plant and equipment (net)
16
Goodwill
17
Intangibles
18
19
Long term investments
Notes receivable -- long term
1,223
0
1,272
0
1,329
0
1,409
0
1,479
0
1,553
0
1,623
0
1,688
0
1,747
0
1,800
0
20
Other long term assets, total
1,451
1,509
1,577
1,671
1,755
1,843
1,926
2,003
2,073
2,135
21
Other assets, total
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31,218
32,467
33,928
35,964
37,762
39,650
41,434
43,091
44,600
45,938
22
23
Total assets
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
24
25
Accounts payable
Payable/accrued
702
0
731
0
763
0
809
0
850
0
892
0
932
0
970
0
1,004
0
1,034
0
26
Accrued expenses
1,702
1,770
1,850
1,960
2,058
2,161
2,259
2,349
2,431
2,504
27
Notes payable/short term debt
367
381
399
423
444
466
487
506
524
540
28
Current portion of LT debt/Capital leases
355
369
386
409
429
451
471
490
507
522
29
Other current liabilities
30
Total Current Liabilities
31
Long term debt, total
9,978
32
Deferred income tax
1,129
33
Minority interest
34
Other liabilities, total
35
631
660
699
734
771
806
838
867
893
3,882
4,057
4,300
4,515
4,741
4,954
5,153
5,333
5,493
9,850
9,854
10,124
10,131
10,044
9,682
9,077
8,319
7,336
1,174
1,227
1,300
1,365
1,434
1,498
1,558
1,612
1,661
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,299
1,351
1,412
1,496
1,571
1,650
1,724
1,793
1,856
1,911
16,139
16,257
16,549
17,221
17,582
17,869
17,858
17,581
17,120
16,401
36
Preferred stock (redeemable)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
Preferred stock (unredeemable)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Total Liabilities
607
3,733
Common stock
Additonal paid-in capital
Retained earnings (accumluated deficit)
Treasury stock -- common
ESOP Debt Guarantee
Other equity, total
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Total common shares (diluted)
Total preferred shares outstanding
AFN (interactive with 3 items below)
Adjustment to LT Debt (iterate or use Goal Seek
Issue Common Stock to Fund AFN
Set Balance Sheet Cash Lower to Fund AFN
17
4,854
32,316
(22,855)
(135)
882
15,079
31,218
1,035
17
4,854
33,447
(22,855)
(135)
882
16,210
32,467
994
0.0
(582.0)
0.0
(128.1)
17
4,854
34,616
(22,855)
(135)
882
17,379
33,928
955
0.0
3.9
17
4,854
35,980
(22,855)
(135)
882
18,743
35,964
918
0.0
269.7
17
4,854
37,416
(22,855)
(135)
882
20,179
37,762
882
0.0
6.9
0
17
4,854
39,018
(22,855)
(135)
882
21,781
39,650
847
17
4,854
40,813
(22,855)
(135)
882
23,576
41,434
814
17
4,854
42,747
(22,855)
(135)
882
25,510
43,091
782
17
4,854
44,716
(22,855)
(135)
882
27,480
44,600
752
17
4,854
46,773
(22,855)
(135)
882
29,536
45,938
722
0.0
(86.2)
0.0
(362.9)
0.0
(604.2)
0.0
(758.5)
0.0
(982.7)
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 5 of 8
BA
1
Enter Firm Ticker
2
3
BB
MCD
BC
BD
BE
BF
BG
BH
BI
BJ
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
values in millions
Historical Ratios and Valuation Model
2005
4
2006
BK
BL
BM
BN
BO
BP
2017E
2018E
2019E
Forecasted Ratios and Valuation Model -- 10 Years
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
5 Liquidity
6
Current
1.51
1.76
0.80
1.39
1.14
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
7
8
Quick
Net Working Capital to Total Assets
1.48
0.07
1.72
0.08
0.77
(0.03)
1.34
0.03
1.11
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
1.07
0.01
15.16
132.48
14.08
185.90
14.45
210.96
17.02
214.17
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
15.52
179.63
9 Asset Management
10
11
Days Sales Outstanding
Inventory Turnover
12
Fixed Assets Turnover
0.98
1.07
1.09
1.16
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
13
Total Assets Turnover
0.64
0.72
0.78
0.83
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
16.88
181.86
14 Debt Management
15
Long-Term Debt to Equity
59.0%
54.3%
47.8%
76.1%
75.2%
66.2%
60.8%
56.7%
54.0%
50.2%
46.1%
41.1%
35.6%
30.3%
24.8%
16
Total Debt to Total Assets
31.6%
29.0%
28.7%
35.8%
34.9%
33.1%
31.5%
30.2%
29.3%
28.0%
26.5%
24.5%
22.2%
19.8%
17.1%
17
Times Interest Earned
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10.4
11.0
11.4
11.8
12.4
13.1
14.2
15.7
17.7
20.6
18 Profitability
19
Gross Profit Margin
32.3%
33.2%
34.7%
36.7%
38.7%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
39.0%
20
Operating Profit Margin
20.8%
21.2%
17.0%
27.4%
30.1%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
27.2%
21
Net After-Tax Profit Margin
13.5%
13.7%
10.2%
18.3%
20.0%
16.9%
17.0%
17.1%
17.1%
17.2%
17.3%
17.4%
17.5%
17.7%
17.8%
22
Total Assets Turnover
0.64
0.72
0.78
0.83
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
23
Return on Assets
8.6%
9.9%
7.9%
15.2%
15.1%
12.8%
12.8%
12.9%
12.9%
13.0%
13.0%
13.1%
13.2%
13.3%
13.4%
24
25
Equity Multiplier
Return on Equity
1.98
17.0%
1.87
18.5%
1.92
15.3%
2.13
32.2%
2.15
32.4%
2.07
26.4%
2.00
25.7%
1.95
25.2%
1.92
24.8%
1.87
24.3%
1.82
23.7%
1.76
23.1%
1.69
22.3%
1.62
21.6%
1.56
20.9%
26
27
EPS (using diluted shares, excluding extraordinary items
2.02
2.29
1.93
3.76
4.11
3.71
4.00
4.33
4.74
5.15
5.61
6.08
6.56
7.06
7.56
28
DPS (dividends per share)
0.66
0.97
1.46
1.59
2.02
2.77
2.95
3.21
3.40
3.69
3.92
4.13
4.40
4.78
5.11
3.52
3.39
3.53
3.69
5.63
6.19
6.76
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Free Cash Flow per Share
4.38
0.83
4.62
Valuation Metrics Trend Analysis (NOPAT, EVA, MVA, FCF and Capital in millions)
2005
2006
2007
2008
NOPAT (net operating profit after tax)
2,806
3,058
2,536
4,513
ROIC (return on invested capital)
12.3%
15.0%
11.6%
21.4%
EVA (economic value added)
1,189
1,613
982
3,015
FCF (free cash flow)
N/A
5,480
1,006
5,291
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
Net Operating Working Capital (NOWC)
3,204
918
901
853
Operating Long Term Assets
19,573
19,438
20,985
20,255
Total Operating Capital
22,778
20,356
21,886
21,107
Valuation (in millions where appropriate) -- through year 2019E
Long-term Horizon Value Growth Rate (user-supplied)
PV of Forecasted FCF, discounted at 7.10%
$88,661 $89,475
Value of Non-Operating Assets
$4,261
$2,128
Total Intrinsic Value of the Firm
$92,922 $91,603
Intrinsic Market Value of the Equity
$83,444 $83,213
Per Share Intrinsic Value of the Firm
$65.49
$66.48
MVA (market value added)
$68,298 $67,755
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculations
Item
Value
Percent
ST Debt (from most recent balance sheet)
0
0.00%
LT Debt (from most recent balance sheet)
10,560
12.22%
87.78%
MV Equity (look up stock's mkt. cap and enter in cell BB53 75,845
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
NOPAT per Share
EVA per Share
MVA per Share
2.20
0.93
2.44
1.29
$94,819
$1,981
$96,801
$88,364
$72.92
$73,084
$96,258
$2,063
$98,322
$88,136
$76.91
$74,753
2009
4,799
21.8%
3,238
3,903
7.1%
472
21,532
22,003
2010E
2009
3.00%
$99,187
$1,796
$100,983
$90,423
$81.65
$76,389
2010E
Cost Weighted Cost
1.58%
0.00%
6.10%
0.51%
7.50%
6.58%
7.10%
2.09
0.81
3.94
2.63
4.33
2.92
68.98
2011E
2012E
4,415
4,592
4,799
19.4%
19.4%
19.4%
2,799
2,911
3,042
3,643
3,681
3,733
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
729
758
792
22,047
22,776
22,929
23,687
23,961
24,753
2011E
2012E
$102,584
$106,185
$109,989
$2,001
$2,081
$2,175
$104,585
$108,266
$112,163
$94,240
$98,034
$101,911
$87.73
$94.09
$100.83
$79,161
$81,824
$84,532
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Risk Free Rate
4.25%
Beta
0.65
Market Risk Prem.
5.00%
Cost of Equity
7.50%
4.11
2.61
73.69
4.41
2.79
78.53
4.75
3.01
83.64
3.67
4.24
4.59
5.09
Forecasted Valuation Metrics -- 10 Years
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
5,086
5,341
5,608
5,860
19.4%
19.4%
19.4%
19.4%
3,224
3,385
3,555
3,715
3,601
4,029
4,230
4,558
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
839
881
925
967
25,399
26,668
28,002
29,262
26,238
27,550
28,927
30,229
2017E
2018E
2019E
6,095
6,308
6,497
19.4%
19.4%
19.4%
3,863
3,998
4,118
4,885
5,208
5,521
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
1,006
1,041
1,072
30,432
31,438
31,498
32,538
32,443
33,515
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
$114,194
$2,305
$116,499
$105,953
$108.07
$87,210
$118,271
$2,420
$120,691
$110,117
$115.80
$89,937
$122,435
$2,541
$124,976
$114,466
$124.09
$92,685
$126,566 $130,664 $134,731 $138,773
$2,656
$2,762
$2,859
$2,944
$129,222 $133,426 $137,590 $141,718
$119,054 $123,843 $128,747 $133,842
$133.06
$142.69
$152.93
$163.90
$95,478
$98,332 $101,267 $104,305
5.19
3.29
88.96
5.62
3.56
94.58
6.08
3.85
100.48
6.55
4.15
106.71
2017E
7.02
4.45
113.30
2018E
7.49
4.75
120.29
2019E
7.96
5.04
127.73
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 6 of 8
BQ
BR
BS
BT
BU
BV
BW
BX
BY
BZ
CA
CB
CC
CD
CE
CF
CG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
In this section we are going to examine historical and forecasted ratios (or "multiples") typically used to value stocks ‐‐ P/CF, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, etc. We first want to compare the historical trends in these ratios to the trends in their forecasted values. If our forecasted multiples are systematically increasing or decreasing our forecasts may be too optimistic or pessimistic, and our forecast assumptions may have to be adjusted. Second, we want to compare our discounted cash flow valuation estimates with those derived from the various multiples. Once again, if there is a large discrepancy between our DCF valuation estimate of the company's stock and the range of values obtained from the various multiples, we may want to adjust our forecast assumptions. 1. You will need to look up the company's year‐end stock prices and enter them in the first 5 (historical) years of the "per share value" category.
2. Use the estimated DCF price per share in the forecasted period (link to your forecasted prices in cells BG47‐BP47.
3. Market capitalization will be calculated as basic weighted shares x historical year‐end prices and then forecasted basic weighted shares x DCF forecasted prices.
4. As with previous calculations, historical multiples use actual historical values and forecasted multiples use forecasted values. 10
11
12
14
Per share value (hist. & DCF est.)
15
Market capitalization
16
EBITDA
2005
$33.72
$42,501
$3,684
Enterprise Value
$47,718
13
17
18
19
Inputs
Multiples
Price/Sales
Historical Ratios and Valuation
2006
2007
2008
$44.33
$58.91
$62.19
$54,703
$70,003
$70,063
$4,833
$3,632
$6,158
2009
$62.44
$68,197
$6,487
2010E
$87.73
$92,947
$6,389
2011E
$94.09
$96,688
$6,644
2012E
$100.83
$100,512
$6,943
Forecasted Ratios and Valuation
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
$108.07
$115.80
$124.09
$133.06
$104,499 $108,605 $112,895 $117,420
$7,360
$7,728
$8,114
$8,479
2017E
$142.69
$122,143
$8,819
2018E
$152.93
$126,980
$9,127
2019E
$163.90
$132,005
$9,401
$60,965
$76,961
$101,291
$104,839
$108,590
$112,740
$128,965
$132,964
$136,936
$76,458
$78,186
$116,759
$120,864
$124,932
2.22
2.62
3.07
2.98
3.00
3.95
3.95
3.93
3.85
3.81
3.78
3.76
3.76
3.78
3.81
11.54
11.32
19.27
11.38
10.51
14.55
14.55
14.48
14.20
14.05
13.91
13.85
13.85
13.91
14.04
20
Price/EBITDA
21
Price/Free Cash Flow
N/A
10.20
72.25
13.97
18.02
25.51
26.27
26.93
29.02
26.96
26.69
25.76
25.00
24.38
23.91
22
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
12.95
12.62
21.05
12.70
11.86
15.85
15.78
15.64
15.32
15.11
14.90
14.73
14.62
14.57
14.57
23
Price/Earnings
16.67
19.36
30.57
16.52
15.19
23.65
23.53
23.31
22.80
22.47
22.14
21.89
21.74
21.67
21.69
24
25
Free Cash Flow Yield
Dividend Yield
1.96%
9.9%
2.19%
1.4%
2.47%
7.4%
2.56%
5.6%
3.23%
3.9%
3.16%
3.8%
3.14%
3.7%
3.19%
3.4%
3.14%
3.7%
3.19%
3.7%
3.16%
3.8%
3.10%
3.9%
3.08%
4.0%
3.13%
4.1%
3.12%
2010E
$60.88
$77.21
$98.37
$85.84
$73.95
$60.88
$98.37
$87.73
2011E
$65.27
$82.78
$102.47
$92.04
$79.71
$65.27
$102.47
$94.09
2018E
$110.98
$140.74
$179.43
$156.48
$140.71
$110.98
$179.43
$152.93
2019E
$117.84
$149.45
$196.11
$166.16
$150.68
$117.84
$196.11
$163.90
26
27
Historical
Override
Average
w/Manual
2.78
12.80
28.61
14.24
19.66
Low Price
High Price
DCF Price
Valuation Estimates Based On:
28
Price/Sales
29
Price/EBITDA
30
Price/Free Cash Flow
31
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
32
Price/Earnings
33
34
35
Forecasted Stock Prices Based on Historical Multiples -- 10 Years
2012E
$70.32
$89.18
$107.13
$99.16
$86.24
$70.32
$107.13
$100.83
2013E
$76.85
$97.46
$106.56
$108.36
$94.51
$76.85
$108.36
$108.07
2014E
$83.18
$105.49
$122.90
$117.29
$102.75
$83.18
$122.90
$115.80
2015E
$90.04
$114.20
$133.03
$126.97
$111.76
$90.04
$133.03
$124.09
2016E
$97.01
$123.02
$147.78
$136.78
$121.17
$97.01
$147.78
$133.06
2017E
$104.01
$131.90
$163.28
$146.65
$130.87
$104.01
$163.28
$142.69
36
37
Forecasted Per Share Stock Values
Price/Sales and Enterprise Value/EBITDA vs. Price
24
$160
20
$140
16
$120
$100
12
$80
8
$60
4
$40
$20
0
Price/Sales
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Historical or DCF Price
Forecasted Value Per Share
$180
Historical or DCF Price
P/S and Ent. Value/EBITDA
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
$210 $195 $180 $165 $150 $135 $120 $105 $90 $75 $60 $45 $30 $15 $0 Low Price
DCF Price
High Price
CH
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 7 of 8
CI
CJ
CK
CL
CM
CN
CO
CP
CQ
CR
CS
CT
CU
CV
CW
CX
CY
CZ
DA
1
2
3
Price/Earnings Ratio and Dividend Yield
9
10
11
12
30
4.0%
25
20
3.0%
15
2.0%
10
1.0%
5
0
13
EPS and DPS
7
8
5.0%
Dividend Yield
6
Price/Earnings Ratio
5
Earnings and Dividends Per Share
35
4
0.0%
$8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 14
15
16
Price/Earnings Ratio
17
Earnings Per Share
Dividend Yield
Dividends Per Share
18
19
Gross, Operating and Net Profit Margins
20
23
24
25
26
27
28
Gross Margin
22
29
30
Return on Assets, Equity and Invested Capital
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
35%
ROA, ROE and ROIC
21
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
31
32
33
Gross Margin
34
Operating Margin
Net Margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity
Return on Invested Capital
35
36
37
NOPAT and Free Cash Flow (millions)
$4,000 $100,000 $3,500 $80,000 $3,000 $60,000 $2,500 Economic Value Added
Market Value Added
Market Value Added
$120,000 NOPAT and Free Cash Flow
Economic Value Added & Market Value Added (millions)
$4,500 Economic Value Added
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
$7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 NOPAT
Free Cash Flow
DB
MCD Financial Analysis, Page 8 of 8
DC
DD
DE
DF
DG
DH
DI
DJ
DK
1
2
3
Piotroski Financial Fitness Score (max = 11)
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
Piotroski Score
6
12
13
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
14
15
16
Piotroski Score
17
18
19
Altman Probability of Bankruptcy Z‐Score
20
21
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Altman Z‐Score
23
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Z >2.9 = Safe, 1.23 < Z < 2.9 = Grey Area, Z < 1.23 = Distress
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Altman Z‐Score
DL
DM
DN
DO
DP
DQ
DR
DS
DT
DU
DV