Policy process cycle
consultation
coordination
Policy
instruments
Decision
Policy
analysis
implementation
Identifying
issues
Evaluation
Issue: Policy cycle being neither a logically, sequentially, structured or a uniform process..
Sourced from Australian Policy cycle model
http://www.premiers.qld.gov.au/About_the_department/publications/policies/Governing_Queensland/Policy_Handbook/cycle/cycle/at
Eightfold path to Policy Analysis
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Define the Problem
Assemble some evidence
Construct the alternatives
Select the Criterion
Project the outcomes
Confront the trade-offs
Decide
Tell your story
1-Define the Problem
It is more than defining goals and measuring distance from those goals. It is about
Strategic representation of situation for favoured course of action by interested groups
• Definition should be evaluative
• Problem should be quantifiable*, if possible
• Treat the Conditions that cause problems
also as problems
• Missing an opportunity is a problem
• Defining solution into the problem
• Reiterate the problem
*Benefits: People like to be measured; Record keeping stimulates reporting. Counting stimulates
demand for change. Risks: Counting is political (eg: inclusions & exclusions)
Numbers don’t speak for themselves, numbers create alliances between the measured and
measurers, power to measure gives power to control. Numbers create illusion of simplicity in
Complex problems. Ambiguous numbers leave scope for political interpretation.
Measuring implicitly creates norms/entitlements. Measuring acknowledges frequent occurrence
2-Assembling some Evidence
• Think before You collect
• Locate relevant sources – Documents, People
• Distinguish between supportive and essential
practices
• Second hand information
• Multiple sources of first hand information
• Gain access, Seek appointment, interview
• Search for sources, search for knowledge
• Cultivate access
• Start early
• Defensive informant
• Risks of premature exposure
• Use Smart (Best) practices
• Assess incentive effect / Wealth effect
3- Construct the alternatives
• Start comprehensive
• End focused
• Model the system in which problem is
located
• Reduce and simplify list of alternatives
• Design problems,
– subjective interests Vs. objective interests
• Linguistic pitfalls
4 - Select the Criterion
• Apply evaluative criterion to judgments on outcomes not
on alternatives
• Efficiency
– Getting more output for a given input
• Problems in measuring output and distribution of output
• Problems in measuring, controlling & providing inputs
– impacted by
• Information imperfection
• Externalities
• Market imperfections/Imperfect competition
• Equity
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Same size share to everybody
Recipients
Items
Process
Issues: Is there a trade off between Equity and Efficiency
4- Evaluative criterion
• Fairness
– Invoke correct, complete and precise rules & enforce
effectively and predictably, eliminate arbitrariness, take
Rights seriously
• Freedom
– free markets, economic freedom, religious freedom, free
speech, privacy
• Security*
– Minimum requirement for biological survival
– Security & Freedom Trade-off
– Security & Efficiency Trade-off
• Legality & Political acceptability **
• Robustness & Improvability
• Optimization models, linear programming
•Social; food; resources; border; group; individual; one time or all the times, etc., Tools: Legislative mandate, Budget process, CMP
**Inducement, rewards & sanctions, aimed at targets and givers
5-Project the outcomes
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Projection= Model + Evidence
Attach magnitude to the projections
Break-even estimates
Optimization problem
Scenario writing
Undesirable side effects
Sensitivity analysis
Outcome matrix
6-Confront the trade-offs
• Commensurability
• Revisiting break-even analysis
• Without projecting outcome, there is
nothing to tradeoff
• Simplify comparison
6-Decide
• If can’t decide or you are uncertain, your tradeoff exercise is incomplete
• If you can’t convince yourself you can’t convince
others
• Rational Analytical model is key to arrive at
decision to deliver on the Policy goals/
objectives
Rules of Argument
• Arguments by example
– Give more than one example
– Use representative examples
– Background information is crucial
– Consider counter examples
• Arguments by Analogy
– Use relevantly similar examples
• Arguments by Authority
– Cite sources
– Seek informed sources
– Seek impartial sources
– Cross check sources
– Personal attacks do not disqualify sources
• Arguments about Causes
– Explain how cause leads to effect
– Propose the most likely cause
– Correlated causes are not necessarily related
– Correlated events may have common cause
– Causes may be complex
Composing an argumentative Essay
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Elaborate short arguments with overall design
Question and defend each argument premises
Revise and rethink arguments as they emerge
Explain the question
Consider objections
Consider alternatives
Follow outline
Keep introduction brief
Give arguments one at a time
Clarify, clarify, clarify
Support objections with arguments
Don’t claim more than you have shown
Don’t draw conclusions from little evidence
Don’t attack person in authority rather than qualifications
General Rules
– Distinguish your premises and conclusion
– Present ideas in natural order
– Start from reliable premises
– Be concrete and concise
– Avoid loaded language
– Use consistent terms
– Stick to one meaning to each term
7-Tell your story
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You, your client, audiences
What medium to use?
Follow logical narrative of the story
Choose report format
Choose table format
Choose reference/source citation format
Choose Sound bite and Press release
http://www.askoxford.com/betterwriting/plainenglish/?view=uk
http://www.chicagomanualofstyle.org/CMS_FAQ/new/new_questions01.html
http://www.economist.com/research/styleguide/
Transparency & Public Policy
• Transparency can help reduce the scope for discretion
since decisions are more likely to be reached on the
basis of observable data and replicable methods, and
poor decisions will be more open to challenge.
• Transparency can also increase the legitimacy of
decisions, thereby reducing the risk of future policy
reversals (anticipation of which will tend to undermine
the intended response).
• Transparency works even when incentives can’t
References:
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http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1986/buchanan-lecture.html
http://cag.nic.in/html/publi_peraudguid-rc.htm Performance auditing
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/5/D/Green_Book_07.pdf (Green Book)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/12/robb.htm (How can poor have voice in
policy analysis)
http://poverty2.forumone.com/files/12685_PSIA_Users_Guide_-_Complete__High_resolution_-_English_-_May_2003.pdf (A user’s guide to poverty and social impact
analysis)
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EDUCATION/Resources/2782001099079877269/547664-1099079934475/5476671135281504040/tools_ED_policy_analysis.pdf (Tools for education policy analysis)
http://www.mackinac.org/archives/2002/sp2002-01.pdf (Seven Principles of Public Policy)
Simon Blackburn: Being Good; A short introduction to Ethics
World Bank, The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution;
Evaluation Techniques and Tools
James D. Gwarthney et al: Macroeconomics Private & Public Choice
Mancur Olson Jr. The Logic of Collective Action Public Goods and the Theory of Groups
IMF, Unproductive Public Expenditure: A Pragmatic Approach to Policy Analysis
Deborah Stone, Policy Paradox, The Art of Political Decision Making
Anthony Weston, A Rulebook for Arguments
Eugene Bardach, A Practical Guide to Policy Analysis: The Eightfold Path to More
Effective Problem Solving