Online Phenology and Infection Risk Modeling System – 2012 Update
Len Coop , Paul Jepson , and Carla Thomas
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1
Ability to add widgets to external/3rd party
websites such as Extension pest advisory pages.
2
Integrated Plant Protection Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 2UC Davis, Plant Pathology and NPDN, Davis, CA
http://uspest.org/wea - quick start
Mashup Capability
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ABSTRACT
Online IPM decision support tools have expanded at the website http://uspest.org/wea. New “my virtual weather stations”
supplement more than 17,000 actual stations and were tested for numerous crops during 2011. This feature allows users to
click in a Google map to generate virtual weather data (interpolated from nearby stations), offering pest models to run at
site-specific locations. New high resolution maps of disease infection risk are being tested in 2012. Models are also linked to
two types of site-specific 7-day weather forecasts (Fox Weather, LLC and National Weather Service Digital). The system now
include over 77 phenology (degree-day), 18 hourly driven (plant disease infection risk and chilling unit models), daily updated
degree-day maps with new Google Maps interface, and a 48 state custom degree-day mapping calculator now with GIS data
download capability. All models and settings are now integrated into the “MyPest Page” which can serve as a portal to
decision support needs for numerous cropping systems over the USA. The system was expanded to serve national plant
biosecurity needs since 2005, via the NPDN (National Plant Diagnostic Network), numerous CSREES/NIFA grant programs,
and a Western Specialty Crops PIPE (Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education) grant. New and updated models
in the system include muskmelon Melcast, spotted wing Drosophila (phenology and overwintering survival), European
grapevine moth, brown marmorated stink bug, and Western flower thrips. Website adoption continues to grow; over
120,000 and 140,000 model runs were made during 2010 & 2011.
Comparison of Virtual Data Types
Currently, V2 (nearby station, distanceelevation weighted regression) and preproduction PRISM virtual hourly weather data
perform better than forecast-based virtual data
(10 locations in OR & WA, 9/21/11 to 3/10/12).
MyPest Page Comparing Two Forecast Engines (Fox Weather LLC & NWS NDFD)
Phenology/Degree-day Models
”My Virtual Weather Stations”
Model Selection
18 hourly weather driven
and 77 phenology
models (many of which
are shown above and at
left) include arthropod
pests, biological control
agents, one endangered
insect species, crops,
weeds, and plant
diseases such as potato
early blight. All models
are linked to weather
station and virtual
weather data. Recently
added models include
brown marmorated stink
bug, European grapevine
moth, and spotted wing
Drosophila phenology
and overwintering
mortality.
CREDITS
IPPC works closely with and gives thanks and
appreciation to: funding agencies USDA RMA,
USDA NIFA AFRI and WRIPM programs, USDA
NPDN, CDFA SCRI, W. IPM Center at UC Davis;
collaborators Fox Weather LLC, NOAA NWS,
MESOWEST UTAH, the Western Weather
Systems Workgroup, The OSU PRISM Group,
and USDA ARS; and numerous sources of
weather data including WSU AgWeatherNET,
AGRIMET, ADCON, AUTOMATA, CIMIS,
PestCast, and other networks. The system has
evolved over 17 years using open source
software tools such as GNU/LINUX, GRASS GIS,
and the Perl programming language.
Risk Alert Maps ex. - Late Blight
“My Virtual Weather
Stations” integrated
with “MyPest Page”
a) registered user clicks
in map or hand-enters
location lat-longs, adds
a label, clicks “create”
button
b) current and prior year
data are generated
automatically, kept upto-date in real-time
c) available for use with
all models (denoted
w/green pins) as are
actual weather stations
(blue pins)
Areawide IPM ex. - Codling Moth
“RISK ALERT MAPS” are produced daily for Tomato
- Potato late blight, Tomcast DSV, fire blight, and
soybean rust. During Aug. 2011, late blight was
causing problems in many parts of the US. By
INCIDENCE MAPS in real time example –
clicking on a pin, “MyPest Page” will open to
codling moth trap catch over time and
display detailed weather and model predictions.
space shows infestations radiating
outward from hot spots at 2 week
Forecast Validation
intervals during 2nd generation flight.
IPM PIPE ex. - Spotted Wing Drosophila OW Mortality
Display of temp., precip., pear scab infection risk, and spotted wing Drosophila models. Light
blue shaded bars in temp. chart indicate times when V2 virtual data used to fill-in missing data.
New Disease Risk Model Gridded Forecasts
Example for GRAPE Gubler-Thomas POWDERY MILDEW. Virtual data can be
gridded and made available for high-resolution terrain-sensitive plant disease risk
maps, such as this new PRISM and IPPC V2 based risk forecast map for grape
GTPM shown here under a warming weather pattern moving from left to right,
indicating a shift from low to high risk of disease (yellow - medium risk, red - high
risk).
Ability to overlay past weather and risk
model forecasts over observed data.
Here temperature, RH, precipitation, and
the Spotts et al. pear scab infection risk
model show generally good agreement
between a prior Fox Weather LLC
forecast and actual weather station data.
With IPM PIPE support (USDA RMA), we are developing a series
of synoptic incidence and risk maps for the US, with focus on
Western specialty crops. Here, relative overwintering
mortality, an essential component of Spring risk of infestation
and subsequent build-up, is estimated as a product of chilling
degree-days and human-caused refuges as represented by
NOAA satellite images of lights at night. Created with GRASS
GIS.