The role of microphysical processes on the mesoscale simulation over the complex terrain, the Himalayas Paper Number: GC41A – 0854 Rudra K Shrestha1, 2, Paul Connolly1, Martin Gallagher1 1 School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, UK 2 Sustainable Consumption Institute (SCI), The University of Manchester, UK Introduction: South Asia is critically dependent upon monsoon precipitation which is intrinsically linked to people’s daily lives since more than 70% of the working population relies on agriculture (Kumar et al., 2004) and the majority of these agricultural systems are rainfall dependent. Accurate prediction of the monsoon features such as its onset and decay, its movement and variability across the Asian region is important as they influence national agenda such as sustainable development, poverty reduction and disaster management. Improved understanding of the Indian monsoon is challenging to the climate-weather community due to the role of the complex topography of the Himalayas (Wang, 2006) and their representation in climate models. The Hiymalayan topography is characterizsed by extreme altitudinal geographic variation, from typically 70m asl in Southeastern Nepal (Kechana Kalan), to the peak of the world, at 8850m (Mt. Everest), and extending from West to East covering many South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar (Benn and Owen, 1998). Circulation in such a complex environment is complicated due to obstruction of flows by mountain ranges which in turn have wide ranging effects on hydrology through cloud and rain formation and their distribution and runoff. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of the four different cloud microphysical schemes (WSM3, WSM6, Morrison double moment and Lin scheme) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), as part of simulations of mesoscale weather systems across the Nepalese Himalayas. Modeling of the key microphysical process in this complex terrain provides insight into the general understanding of the processes, their different contributions in different topographical scenarios and their spatial patterns, however there are many uncertainties in general. These uncertainties are even more pronounced when such models are applied to the complex terrain characteristic of the Himalayas. Model configuration and experimental set up: Numerical experiments are designed using the WRF model, with three nested domains (27, 9 and 3 km grid spacing; Figure 1). The performance of the four categories of microphysical schemes is examined in model experiments for (i) monsoon onset, (ii) monsoon decay and (iii) winter rainfall. Table 1 Table 1: Summary of physics Physics Micro-Physics Monsoon Decay Experiment Monsoon Onset Experiment Contact: Rudra.Shrestha@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk WSM3 WSM6 Winter Rainfall Experiment WRF 6-class, WRF 3-class, Lin scheme and Morrison DM LW radiation RRTM scheme RRTM scheme RRTM scheme SW radiation Dudhia scheme Dudhia scheme Dudhia scheme Land surface scheme Noah land surface model Noah land surface model Noah land surface model Boundary layer YSU scheme YSU scheme YSU scheme Grell-Deveyni scheme; grid > 3km Grell-Deveyni scheme; grid > 3km Cumulus Grell-Deveyni scheme; parameterization grid > 3km Lin Morrison DM Figure 5: Time series Rainfall (0730 UTC 01 - 0730 UTC 07 Sep 2007) Model Initial and Boundary condition: NCEP/DOE reanalysis – 2 WSM3 WSM6 Lin Morrison DM Figure3: Water Condensate (g/kg) WSM3 WSM6 1130 UTC 04 Sept. 2007 The Physics packages other than the microphysics include the Grell-Deveyni cumulus parameterization scheme, Noah land-surface model, the Yonsei University planetary boundary layer (PBL), a simple cloud-interactive shortwave radiation Dudhia scheme, and Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) longwave radiation schemes. No cumulus parameterization scheme was used at 3km grid resolution owing to the fact that the model explicitly resolves convective activities below 5km grid resolution (Table 1). Model initial and boundary conditions were adopted from NCEP/DOE reanalysis – 2. The model is configured with 28 vertical levels. Surface properties such as terrain/vegetation/land use data were prescribed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Evaluation of the model results was focused on the high resolution (3km x 3km) simulation. Results and Discussion: 1730 UTC 04 Sept. 2007 Lin 2030 UTC 04 Sept. 2007 Morrison DM Results show that; a) Simulated rainfall is very sensitive to the chosen microphysical scheme with rainfall spatial and temporal characteristics being very different for each scheme. However, the majority of the WRF simulations showed similar general patterns with monsoon onset across the foothills of the Himalayas, confined to the Siwaliks and Mahabharat ranges (geographical regions having 10 – 50 km wide swath with altitude ranging from 200 – 3000 m extending parallel to south of the Himalayas). In general subsequent maturation of the monsoon was observed across the Southeast region of Nepal which then gradually moved Northwest over time before dissipating; b) It was found that strong moist convection caused by near surface convergence of wind is responsible for producing significant nocturnal maximum precipitation during the monsoon period. All the WRF simulations revealed that the continuous southerly moist monsoonal flow interacting with the South slope of the Himalayas and associated diurnal variation of ambient atmospheric state is the major cause of the nocturnal maximum rain generally across the region. References: Benn, DI and LA Owen, 1998: The role of the Indian summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerlies in Himalayan glaciation: review and speculative discussion. Journal of the Geological Society 155, 353-363. 2330 UTC 04 Sept. 2007 Kumar, KK, KR Kumar, RG Ashrit, NR Deshpande, JW Hansen, 2004: Climate Impacts on Indian agriculture. Int. J. Climatol. 24:1375–1393 Wang, B., 2006: The Asian Monsoon. Praxis Publishing Ltd. Chichester, UK, 787 pp. Figure 1: Domain Setup 0230 UTC 05 Sept. 2007 Figure2: Precipitation Simulation (Monsoon Decay Experiment) Figure4: Relative Humidity Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to SCI providing financial support to carry out the research.