Simulation Throughout the Life of a Reservoir Gordon Adamson Reservoir Management Ltd. Aberdeen, Scotland Martin Crick Texaco Ltd. London, England Brian Gane British Petroleum Aberdeen, Scotland Omer Gurpinar Denver, Colorado, USA Jim Hardiman Henley on Thames, England Dave Ponting Abingdon, England For help in preparation of this article, thanks to Bob Archer, Chip Corbett, Ivor Ellul, Roger Goodan and Jim Honefenger, GeoQuest, Houston, Texas, USA; Randy Archibald, GeoQuest Reservoir Technologies, Henley on Thames, England; Ian Beck, GeoQuest Reservoir Technologies, Abingdon, England; George Besserer, PanCanadian Petroleum Limited, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; Kunal Dutta-Roy, Simulation Sciences Inc., Brea, California, USA; and Sharon Wells, GeoQuest Reservoir Technologies, Denver, Colorado. ECLIPSE, FloGrid, GRID, Open-ECLIPSE, PVT and RTView are marks of Schlumberger. NETOPT and PIPEPHASE are marks of Simulation Sciences Inc. 1. Peaceman DW: “A Personal Retrospection of Reservoir Simulation,” Proceedings of the First and Second International Forum on Reservoir Simulation, Alpbach, Austria, September 12-16, 1988 and September 4-8, 1989. 2. Wycoff RD, Botset HG and Muskat M: “The Mechanics of Porous Flow Applied to Water-flooding Problems,” Transactions of the AIME 103 (1933): 219-249. Muskat M and Wyckoff RD: “An Approximate Theory of Water-Coning in Oil Production,” Transactions of the AIME 114 (1935): 144-163. 3. Darcy’s law states that fluid flow velocity is proportional to pressure gradient and permeability, and inversely proportional to viscosity. 4. Coats KH: “Use and Misuse of Reservoir Simulation Models,” SPE Reprint Series No. 11 Numerical Simulation. Dallas, Texas, USA: Society of Petroleum Engineers (1973): 183-190. 16 Simulation is one of the most powerful tools for guiding reservoir management decisions. From planning early production wells and designing surface facilities to diagnosing problems with enhanced recovery techniques, reservoir simulators allow engineers to predict and visualize fluid flow more efficiently than ever before. Reservoir simulators were first built as diagnostic tools for understanding reservoirs that surprised engineers or misbehaved after years of production. The earliest simulators were physical models, such as sandboxes with clear glass sides for viewing fluid flow, and analog devices that modeled fluid flow with electrical current flow.1 These models, first documented in the 1930s, were constructed by researchers hoping to understand water coning and breakthrough in homogeneous reservoirs that were undergoing waterflood.2 Some things haven’t changed since the 1930s. Today’s reservoir simulators generally solve the same equations studied 60 years ago—material balance and Darcy’s law.3 But other aspects of simulation have changed dramatically. With the advent of digital computers in the 1960s, reservoir modeling advanced from tanks filled with sand or electrolytes to numerical simulators. In numerical simulators, the reservoir is represented by a series of interconnected blocks, and the flow between blocks is solved numerically. In the early days, computers were small and had little memory, limiting the number of blocks that could be used. This required simplification of the reservoir model and allowed simulation to proceed with a relatively small amount of input data. As computer power increased, engineers created bigger, more geologically realistic models requiring much greater data input. This demand has been met by the creation of increasingly complex and efficient simulation programs coupled with user-friendly data preparation and result-analysis packages. Today, desktop computers may have 5000 times the memory and run about 200 times faster than early supercomputers. However, the most significant gain has not been in absolute speed, but speed at a moderate price. Computational efficiency has reached a stage that allows powerful simulators to be run frequently. Numerical simulation has become a reservoir management tool for all stages in the life of the reservoir. No longer just for comparing performance of reservoirs under different production schemes or trouble-shooting when recovery methods come under scrutiny, simulations are also run when planning field development or designing measurement campaigns. In the last 10 years, with the development of computer-aided geological and geostatistical modeling, reservoir simulators now help to test the validity of the reservoir models themselves. And simulation results are increasingly used to guide decisions on investing in the construction or overhaul of expensive surface facilities. Motivation for Simulation A numerical simulator containing the right information and in the hands of a skilled engineer can imitate the behavior of a reservoir. A simulator can predict production under current operating conditions, or the reaction of the reservoir to changes in conditions, such as increasing production rate; production from more or different wells; response to injection of water, steam, acid Oilfield Review Core plugs Whole cores Borehole geophysics Well logs Outcrop studies Well testing 3D Seismic data Large-scale structure Geological expertise Small-scale structure 1st generation geomodel or foam; the effect of subsidence; and production from horizontal wells of different lengths and orientations. Reservoir simulation can be performed by oil company reservoir engineers or by engineering consultant contractors. Some contractors specialize in engineering consulting, while others offer a full range of oilfield services. In either case, the simulator is a tool that allows the engineer to answer questions and offer recommendations for improving operating practice. To make simulation worthwhile, there must be a well-posed question of economic importance: Where should wells be located to maximize incremental recovery per dollar of additional investment? How many wells are required to produce enough gas to meet a contractual deliverability schedule? Should oil be recovered by natural depletion or water injection? What is the optimum length of a horizontal well? Is carbon dioxide [CO2] injection feasible? Should we keep this reservoir alive? As observed by K.H. Coats while at the University of Texas at Austin, USA, “The complexity of the questions being asked, and the amount and reliability of the data available, must determine the sophistication of the system to be used.”4 In all cases, a simulation study should result in recommendations for intervention. This may include a new strategy for data acquisition, or an infill drilling plan with the number, location and direction of wells and a completion strategy for each well. How a Simulator Works Calibration Risk analysis Surface network input Production Static reservoir model Up-gridding Simulation model Execution model ■ Creating models for input to reservoir simulators. The first-generation geomodel is created through the combined efforts of geologists, geophysicists, petrophysicists and reservoir engineers. Reservoir properties are then upscaled to produce the static reservoir model. Optimizing the grid and calibrating with dynamic data yield the simulation model. Finally, input from surface facilities analysis and risk calculations results in an execution model that can guide reservoir management decisions. Summer 1996 The function of reservoir simulation is to help engineers understand the productionpressure behavior of a reservoir and consequently predict production rates as a function of time. The future production schedule, when expressed in terms of revenues and compared with costs and investments, helps managers determine both economically recoverable reserves and the limit of profitable production. Once the goal of simulation is determined, the next step is to describe the reservoir in terms of the volume of oil or gas in place, the amount that is recoverable and the rate at which it will be recovered. To estimate recoverable reserves, a model of the reservoir framework, including faults and layers and their associated properties, must be constructed. This so-called static model is created through the combined efforts of geologists, geophysicists, petrophysicists and reservoir engineers (left ). Much of the multibillion-dollar business of oilfield services is centered on obtaining information that 17 eventually feeds reservoir simulators, leading to better reservoir development and management decisions.5 The simulator itself computes fluid flow throughout the reservoir. The principles underlying simulation are simple. First, the fundamental fluid-flow equations are expressed in partial differential form for each fluid phase present. These partial differential equations are obtained from the conventional equations describing reservoir fluid behavior, such as the continuity equation, the equation of flow and the equation of state. The continuity equation expresses the conservation of mass. For most reservoirs, the equation of flow is Darcy’s law. For high rates of flow, such as in gas reservoirs, Darcy’s law equations are modified to include turbulence terms. The equation of state describes the pressure-volume or pressure-density relationship of the various fluids present. For each phase, the three equations are then combined into a single partial differential equation. Next, these partial differential equations are written in finite-difference form, in which the reservoir volume is treated as a numbered collection of blocks and the reservoir production period is divided into a number of time steps. Mathematically speaking, the problem is discretized in both space and time. Examples of simulators that solve this problem under a variety of conditions are found in the ECLIPSE family of simulators. These simulators fall into two main categories. In the first category are three-phase black-oil simulators, for reservoirs comprising water, gas and oil. The gas may move into or out of solution with the oil. The second category contains compositional and thermal simulators, for reservoirs requiring more detailed description of fluid composition. A compositional description could encompass the amounts and properties of hexanes, pentanes, butanes, benzenes, asphaltenes and other hydrocarbon components, and might be used when the fluid composition changes during the life of the reservoir. A thermal simulator would be advised if changes in temperature—either with location or with time—modified the fluid composition of the reservoir. Such a description could come into play in the case of steam injection, or water injection into a deep, hot reservoir. 18 Block-Centered Geometry 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 4000 6000 8000 5800 6200 6600 7000 7400 Corner-Point Geometry 0 2000 5800 6200 ■ Block-centered and corner-point geometries. Blockcentered geometry features flattopped rectangular blocks that match the mathematical models behind the simulator. Cornerpoint geometry modifies the rectilinear grid so that it conforms to important reservoir boundaries. Threedimensional grids are constructed from a 2D grid by laying it on the top surface of the reservoir and projecting the grid vertically or along fault planes onto lower layers. 6600 7000 7400 Local Grid Refinement ■ Local grid refinement (LGR). Local grid refinement allows engineers to describe selected regions of the reservoir in extra detail. Radial refined grids are often used around wellbores to examine coning or other phenomena resulting from rapid variation in properties away from the well. Refined grids are also one way to treat property variations near faults. Oilfield Review These and all other commercial reservoir simulators envision a reservoir divided into a number of individual blocks, called grid blocks. Each block corresponds to a volume in the reservoir, and must contain rock and fluid properties representative of the reservoir at that location. The simulator models the flow of mobile fluid through the walls of the blocks by solving the fluid-flow equations at each block face. Parameters required for the solution include permeability, layer thickness, porosity, fluid content, elevation and pressure. The fluids are assigned a viscosity, compressibility, solution gas/oil ratio and density. The rock is assigned a value for compressibility, capillary pressure and a relative permeability relationship. Creating the grid and assigning properties to each grid block are time-consuming tasks. The framework of the reservoir, including its structure and depth, its layer boundaries and fault positions and throws, is obtained from seismic and well log data. The well-bred grid respects the framework geometry as much as possible. Traditionally, reservoir simulation grid blocks are rectilinear with flat, horizontal tops in an arrangement called block-centered geometry (previous page, top). This configuration ensures that the grids remain orthogonal and exactly match the mathematical models used in the simulators. However, this approach does not easily represent structural and stratigraphic complexities such as nonvertical faults, pinchouts or erosional surfaces using purely rectangular blocks. The 1983 introduction of corner-point geometry in the ECLIPSE simulator overcame these problems. In a corner-point grid, the corners need not be orthogonal. In modeling a faulted reservoir, for example, engineers have the flexibility to choose between an orthogonal areal grid with the fault positions projected onto the grid or a flexible grid to exactly honor the positions of important faults. Three-dimensional (3D) grids are constructed from an areal, or 2D, grid by laying it on the top surface of the reservoir and projecting it vertically or along fault planes onto lower layers. Engineers’ requirements for more detail in the model, particularly to examine coning and near-wellbore effects, has led to the concept of local grid refinement (LGR) (previous page, bottom ). This allows parts of the model to be represented by a large number of small grid blocks or by implanting radial Summer 1996 grids around wells in a larger Cartesian grid. 6 Locally refined grids also capture extra detail in other areas where reservoir properties vary rapidly with distance, such as near faults. And LGR, combined with grid coarsening outside the region of interest, allows engineers to retain fine-scale property variation without surpassing computer space limitations. The interactive GRID program was designed to help construct the complex reservoir grid efficiently (see “Developments in Gridding,” page 21 ). Once the grid has been constructed, the next step is to assign rock and fluid properties from the reservoir framework model to each grid block. Populating the grid with properties is another time-consuming and difficult task. Each grid block, typically a few hundred square meters areally by tens of meters thick, has to be assigned a single value for each of the reservoir properties, including fluid viscosity, relative permeability, saturation, pressure, permeability, porosity and net-to-gross ratio. 7 Log measurements made in wells yield high-density data, typically every 6 in. [15 cm], but provide little information between wells. Data from cores may provide high-density “ground truth,” but these represent perhaps one part in 5 billion of the volume of the reservoir. Surface seismic reflections cover the reservoir volume and more, but do not translate directly into the desired rock and fluid properties. How are these disparate data sets merged? Two processes are required: extrapolating the well data into the interwell reservoir volume, then upscaling the fine-scale data to the scale of a simulation grid block. Traditionally log or core data were upscaled, or averaged, over lithological units at the wells. Then these data were interpolated and extrapolated through the reservoir and maps produced for each layer—formerly a handdrafting exercise by geologists. The maps would be passed to the reservoir engineer who would then generate grids, run preliminary simulations on a series of grid sizes, and attempt further upscaling based on the reservoir flow characteristics. In recent years, the process has been reversed. The current trend is to use computer programs to build 3D geological models bounded by seismic data, and to populate the models using geostatistical or deterministic methods to distribute log and core data.8 Scaling core and log properties up to gridblock scales is still a challenging task. Some properties, such as porosity, are considered simple to upscale, following an arithmetic averaging law. Others, such as permeability, are more difficult to average. And relative permeabilities—different permeabilities for different fluid phases—remain the most difficult problem in upscaling. There is no universally accepted method for upscaling, and it is an area of active research.9 After the model has been finalized, the simulator requires boundary conditions to establish the initial conditions for fluid behavior at the beginning of the simulation. Then, for a given time later, known as the time step, the simulator calculates new pressures and saturation distributions that indicate the flow rates for each of the mobile phases. This process is repeated for a number of time steps, and in this manner both flow rates and pressure histories are calculated for each point—especially the points corresponding to wells—in the system. But even with the best possible model, uncertainty remains. One of the biggest jobs 5. For specific examples: Bunn G, Cao Minh C, Roestenburg J and Wittman M: “Indonesia’s Jene Field: A Reservoir Simulation Case Study,” Oilfield Review 1, no. 2 (July 1989): 4-14. Briggs P, Corrigan T, Fetkovich M, Gouilloud M, Lo Tien-when, Paulsson B, Saleri N, Warrender J and Weber K: “Trends in Reservoir Management,”Oilfield Review 4, no. 1 (January 1992): 8-24. Corbett P, Corvi P, Ehlig-Economides C, Guérillot D, Haldorsen H, Heffer K, Hewitt T, King P, Le Nir I, Lewis J, Montadert L, Pickup G, Ravenne C, Ringrose P, Ronen S, Schultz P, Tyson S and Verly G: “Reservoir Characterization Using Expert Knowledge, Data and Statistics,”Oilfield Review 4, no. 1 (January 1992): 25-39. Al-Rabah AK, Bansal PP, Breitenback EA, Hallenbeck LD, Meehan DN, Saleri NG and Wittman M: “Exploring the Role of Reservoir Simulation,” Oilfield Review 2, no. 2 (April 1990): 18-30. 6. For more on local grid refinement: Heinemann ZE and von Hantelmann G: “Using Local Grid Refinement in a Multiple-Application Reservoir Simulator,” paper SPE 12255, presented at the Reservoir Simulation Symposium, San Francisco, California, USA, November 15-18, 1983. Forsyth PA and Sammon PH: “Local Mesh Refinement and Modelling for Faults and Pinchouts,” paper SPE 13524, presented at the Reservoir Simulation Symposium, Dallas, Texas, USA, February 10-13, 1985. 7. Net-to-gross ratio, sometimes called just net to gross (NTG), is the ratio of the thickness of pay to the total thickness of the reservoir interval. 8. For examples of the technique: Schultz PS, Ronen S, Hattori M, Mantran P and Corbett C: “Seismic-Guided Estimation of Log Properties,” The Leading Edge 13, no. 7 (July 1994): 770-776. Caamano E, Corbett C, Dickerman K, Douglas D, Gir R, Martono D, Mathieu G, Nicholson B, Novias K, Padmono J, Schultz P, Suroso S, Thornton M and Yan Z: “Integrated Reservoir Interpretation,” Oilfield Review 6, no. 3 (July 1994): 50-64. 9. Thibeau S, Barker JW and Souillard P: “Dynamical Upscaling Techniques Applied to Compositional Flows,” paper SPE 29128, presented at the 13th SPE Symposium on Reservoir Simulation, San Antonio, Texas, USA, February 12-15, 1995. 19 Preproduction Planning 8674.00 ■ Visualizing the reservoir model in 3D. Visualization is a reliable means of checking reservoir models before input to a simulator. Inconsistencies in model parameters may be flagged and corrected. After simulation, results may also be viewed, allowing faster evaluation of comparative simulation runs and providing insight into recovery behavior. In this example reservoir pressure is color-coded to show regions of high and low pressure. of a simulator is to evaluate the implications of uncertainty in the static reservoir model. Sometimes uncertainty or error is introduced through low data quality. Another source of error arises because laboratory, logging and geophysical experiments may not directly measure the property of interest, or at the right scale, and so some other property is measured and transformed in some way that adds uncertainty. There is also uncertainty in how a property varies between measurement points. Many reservoir descriptions rely on core sample measurements for rock and fluid property information. This information is uncertainly extended through the reservoir volume, usually in some geostatistical or deterministic fashion, guided by seismically derived surfaces or other geological constraints. One way to reduce uncertainty is to spot inconsistencies in the properties of the reservoir model before simulation. Three-dimensional visualization software, such as the RTView application, helps engineers be more efficient in finding inconsistencies by allowing them to view the reservoir model in 3D. Results of simulation runs may also be viewed, allowing faster evaluation of simulation runs and providing immediate insight into recovery behavior and physical processes occurring in the reservoir (above ). 20 A simulation run itself can also help reduce uncertainty. Outside the oil industry, simulators are used to determine the reaction of a known environment to externally applied perturbations. An example is a flight simulator that tests varying visibility conditions. Although a reservoir environment is largely unknown, simulators can help improve the description. In a process known as history matching, reservoir production is simulated based on the existing, though uncertain, reservoir description. That description is adjusted iteratively until the simulator is able to reproduce the observed pressures and multiphase flow resulting from applied perturbations—that is, the known production and injection. If the production history can be matched, the engineer has greater confidence that the reservoir description will be a useful, predictive tool. The history-matching process is timeconsuming and requires considerable skill and insight, but is a necessary prerequisite to the successful prediction of continued reservoir performance. These new techniques and programs for loading data, computing simulations and viewing results are allowing engineers to use simulators to guide reservoir management decisions throughout the life of many fields. The following case studies highlight some of the uses of simulators in four different stages of reservoir maturity. Forties e pipelin Forties Everest Lomond Aberdeen Erskine elin e Pressure, psi pip 6250.13 An example of early use of simulation comes from the Texaco Erskine Project in the North Sea Central Graben region (below ). The Erskine field comprises four high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) condensate reservoirs, and will be the first HPHT field in the North Sea to come on line when production commences in 1997. Production will be from an unmanned platform, with a multiphase pipeline to the Amoco Lomond Platform for separation. Gas will be exported via the Central Area Transmission System (CATS) pipeline, and liquids via the Forties pipeline. Initial production with be from three wells, with three more to be added. The production mechanism will be natural depletion, with no gas recycling. Other operators in the region who have similar reservoirs to develop are watching how Texaco handles the hostile, overpressured field. Simulation was selected as a way to predict production of gas for drawing up deliverability contracts—contracts promising delivery of designated volumes of gas at a specified time. The main challenge in simulating these reservoirs is accounting for both the permeability reduction due to rock compaction and the productivity loss due to condensate banking—explained below—in the near-wellbore region of the formation when the reservoir pressure falls below the dewpoint pressure.10 CA TS RTView 96A N UK ■ Texaco Erskine Project in the North Sea Central Graben region. The high-temperature, high-pressure condensate field is due to go on production in 1997. Oilfield Review Because of overpressure conditions in the reservoir, the rock is expected to compact with depressurization. This means the rock is expected to decrease its porosity and effective permeability as production progresses. To quantify these effects, laboratory experiments were conducted on rock samples. The experiments showed that at the assumed well abandonment pressure of 4000 psi, permeability would be reduced by about 33% from the initial value, while porosity would be negligibly reduced. Modeling flow in condensate reservoirs requires additional considerations. As pressure drops around the well, condensation, or dropout, occurs and liquid forms. The liquid saturation increases—in what is called condensate banking—until it is great enough to overcome capillary trapping forces and the liquid becomes mobile. But until the liquid becomes mobile, the presence of immobile liquid reduces the relative permeability to gas, resulting in a loss in productivity. The rapid change in fluid saturation away from the well requires a fine grid to accurately model reservoir properties. The ECLIPSE compositional simulator modeled the regions around the wells with a refined radial grid, and the remainder with a Cartesian grid. In addition, condensate yields vary between the four different reservoirs, so each reservoir fluid was represented by its own equation of state. The local grid refinement and multiple equation of state capabilities were added to the ECLIPSE simulator for this project, and now form part of the commercial package. The simulation was used to conduct uncertainty analysis for risk management. To maximize revenues, the tactic is to maximize gas rates without being penalized for coming up short. To understand the risks behind promising a given gas rate, it is desirable to understand the sensitivity of the simulation results to each important input parameter. In this case, repeated simulations indicated that the parameters with the Developments in Gridding Since the first grids were built, the variety, range Perpendicular Bisector (PEBI) Grid and resolution of oilfield measurements have increased, and computer power and efficiency have grown. To take advantage of these developments, reservoir engineers require better and more comprehensive simulation software tools. Modern 3D seismic acquisition, processing and interpretation techniques have resulted in more reliable and higher-resolution definition of faults and erosional surfaces. The engineer wants to represent the full complexity of nonvertical faults, curving or listric faults, and faults that intersect or truncate against one another. Another development that requires more complex models is the increasing use of high-angle and horizontal wells and multilateral wells. These requirements stretch the traditional gridding programs based on corner-point geometry—such as the GeoQuest GRID program—to the limit. This has led to the development of new gridding 41 Water saturation % 100 ■ A perpendicular bisector (PEBI) grid showing local grid refinement around wells. Grid blocks may have a variety of shapes and can fit any reservoir geometry. The smoother grid-block shape also gives a more accurate simulation solution because there is less chance of choosing the wrong grid orientation. software techniques such as the FloGrid utility, which will produce grids that conform to the reser- voir models than exist in analytical models. voir framework as defined by fault surfaces and Unstructured PEBI grids are of great benefit in lithological boundaries. Unstructured perpendicu- these situations, allowing the radial components of lar bisector (PEBI) and tetrahedral grid systems flow into the wellbore to be combined with linear are being developed and included in gridding and or planar features such as the trajectory of a hori- simulation programs (above right). “Blocks” in a zontal well or a fault plane. Simulations run with PEBI grid may have a variety of shapes, and they PEBI grids tend to take longer than those run on may be arranged to fit any reservoir geometry. structured grids, but the ability to capture the The smoother gridblock shape gives a more accu- structural complexity of the reservoir’s flow units rate simulation solution because there is less outweighs the need for speed. A compromise can chance of choosing the wrong grid orientation— be reached by building a structured grid in the geo- a potential problem with traditional grids. A PEBI logically simple parts of the reservoir, and splicing grid also allows flow in more directions from a in an unstructured grid when geologic complexity given grid block, important in the modeling of hor- requires more flexibly shaped grid blocks. izontal wells, gas injection schemes or the interaction of wells in an interference test. These grids are also being used as a basis for a new genera- 10. Crick M: “Compositional Simulation for HPHT Gas Condensate Reservoirs: Follow-up,” presented at the Second ECLIPSE International Forum, Houston, Texas, USA, April 15-19, 1996. Hsu HH, Ponting DK and Wood L: “Field-Wide Compositional Simulation for HPHT Gas Condensate Reservoirs Using an Adaptive Implicit Method,” paper SPE 29948, presented at the International Meeting on Petroleum Engineering, Beijing, China, November 14-17, 1995. Summer 1996 tion of upscaling techniques. A further gridding development is the linking of well test analysis with simulator programs to give the engineer a greater range of numerical reser- 21 Percentage Changes in Reserves -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Gas in place Permeability Pentland continuity Compaction Critical condensate saturation Trapped gas saturation Well skin factor Fault transmissibility ■ Sensitivity of Erskine simulation results to input parameters. Repeated simulations indicate parameters that have the most influence on simulation results. Quantifying the uncertainty in the most sensitive parameters is an important step toward quantifying project risk. Additional simulations were run with the high, low and middle values of each parameter, forming input sensitivities for the risk analysis shown below. most influence on the results included gas in place, permeability and compaction (left ). Deliverability and cumulative production distributions were calculated from the sensitivity results using the parametric method developed for oilfield applications by P.J. Smith and coworkers at British Petroleum.11 A normalized average profile was combined with these distributions in a Monte Carlo simulator to give a probabalistic production profile (below ). The results of the risk analysis showed the effects of different production scenarios on the level of confidence in ability to deliver various possible contracted rates of gas over the initial plateau period. ( next page, bottom ). The required 90% confidence level for a three-year plateau period was achieved by modifying the production rate in the first year, adding a contingency well in the third year, and commingling production in one well between the main Erskine reservoir and the smaller but higher-permeability Kimmeridge reservoir. As a result, Texaco has modified production plans, which now call for a lower production rate in the first year than in subse- Initial Deliverability Distribution Parametric Method Probabilistic Production Profile Normalized Average Profile Sensitivities Deliverability Deliverability Predicted production Monte Carlo Analysis Cumulative Production Reserves Distribution Parametric Method ■Schematic of deliverability and cumulative production computed for best- and worst-case scenarios. The sensitivity profiles (left) represent curves for best and worst cases, such as the lowest and highest permeability, lowest and highest compaction and all other parameters mentioned above. Not all curves were plotted because of space constraints. All the sensitivities were combined through a parametric method modified for oilfield application. (From Smith et al, reference 11.) A normalized average profile (center) was combined with initial deliverability and reserves distributions in a Monte Carlo method to give a probabilistic—90% confidence—production profile (right). The upper curve is the deliverability and the lower curve is predicted production. The cyclic nature of the production curve reflects the alternation between summer and winter demand for gas. 22 Oilfield Review quent years. Risk analysis suggested an additional well in the third year, so platform construction has allowed a slot for a contingency well. In addition, production from the Erskine and Kimmeridge reservoirs will also be commingled. Bravo Alpha Charlie Echo Infill Drilling Delta Forties field Claymore ■ The Forties field in the North Sea, operated by BP with five platforms and 103 wells. Brae Piper Beatrice Britannia Buchan Forties Lomond Montrose Aberdeen Erskine Fulmar N UK 600 Production, 103 B/D Infill drilling is an expensive stage in the life of a reservoir. Simulation, in conjunction with other tools, can help guide the placement of wells and minimize their number. British Petroleum has harnessed simulation along with new reservoir description to optimize infill drilling in the Forties field in the North Sea (right ). The Forties field was discovered in 1970, and produced its first oil in 1975 (middle ). Current production is from five platforms, with 78 producers and 25 peripheral injectors. Estimated recovery of the 4.2 billion stock tank barrels (STB) of original oil in place (OOIP) is 60%, or 90% of the movable oil. The field is characterized by high permeability, high net-to-gross (NTG) pay thickness and a strong aquifer. A few years ago the Forties was considered to be essentially a homogeneous reservoir. But early water breakthrough and water fingering indicated a greater level of heterogeneity than expected, and suggested the need for more wells to be drilled to reach bypassed zones. To understand the potential of infill drilling in the field, a simulation study was conducted, including careful reinterpretation of existing 3D seismic data and a new reser- 500 Current production 400 300 200 Oil production Water production 100 11. Smith PJ, Hendry DJ and Crowther AR: “The Quantification and Management of Uncertainty in Reserves,” paper SPE 26056, presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, Anchorage, Alaska, USA, May 26-28, 1993. 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 Number of wells Commingling 2000 2004 ■ Production in the Forties field since 1975. Confidence levels, % Yearly rate, MMscf/D 1995 Year Tubing size, in. Year Normalized reserves Confidence level, % 1 2 3 4 90 50 10 90/90/90 3 None 4.5 75 75 75 40 0.707 0.898 1.139 80/90/90 3 None 4.5 85 75 75 40 0.699 0.889 1.119 90/90/90 3 Erskine and Kimmeridge in E1 4.5 85 85 75 45 0.738 0.937 1.176 80/90/90 3 Erskine and Kimmeridge in E1 4.5 90 90 80 55 0.738 0.932 1.170 90/90/90 3 Erskine and Pentland in E1 4.5 70 70 65 30 0.682 0.858 1.082 90/90/90 4 None 4.5 95 95 65 30 0.704 0.892 1.119 90/90/90 3 None 5.5 95 95 70 30 0.685 0.863 1.091 80/90/90 Extra well in year 3 3 Erskine and Kimmeridge in E1 4.5 90 90 95 85 0.789 1.000 1.264 Summer 1996 ■ Results of risk analysis ranking some of the simulated production scenarios. The required 90% confidence level (bottom line) was achieved by reducing the production rate in the first year, adding a well in the third year and commingling production from the Kimmeridge and Erskine reservoirs. 23 voir characterization to describe the heterogeneities encountered in the turbidite sandstone reservoir. Simulation with a coarse full-field model allowed identification of regions that might benefit from infill wells, but the results were not refined enough for detailed well placement. Once a region was identified as containing possible infill well locations, other aspects were considered, such as: water cut and production of surrounding wells; interference tests confirming continuity or lack thereof with other layers; and reinterpretation of 3D seismic data for channel identification—prospective locations tend to be along submarine channel margins, where there is lower vertical permeability and so less efficient sweep. Having passed these tests, the area was tapped for a new simulation study with local grid refinement spotlighting the volume of interest (below right ). The refined grid block size was about 50 by 50 m [164 ft by 164 ft] in area by 8 m [26 ft] in depth. Reservoir properties were distributed in the LGR grid based on a geostatistical model. Then the flow in the LGR grid was simulated with the ECLIPSE black-oil simulator and checked against the production history from wells in the grid. The property distribution was modified and simulation rerun. This process was repeated until a history match was obtained, with only six iterations required. The final simulation based on the refined grid predicted a fluid distribution at the Forties Alpha 31 sidetrack (FA31ST) location (above right ). The predicted fluid distribution closely resembled that encountered and the predicted oil production matched the current rate. However, the predicted net-togross rock volume of the upper zone was optimistic relative to measured values. Lessons learned from this work have been fed back into subsequent studies with, for example, seismic attributes helping to characterize the NTG variation in the reservoir. Simulation played a similar role in assessing the potential for infill drilling around the other platforms. Prediction Actual FA31ST Shale Water FA31ST Oil ■ Fluid and formation distributions predicted (left) and encountered (right) at the Forties Alpha 31 sidetrack (FA31ST) location. The predicted distribution closely resembled the layering encountered, and predicted oil production matched the current rate. 300-m Grid 50-m Grid ■ Steps in the simulation study of the Forties Alpha platform area. Simulation with a coarse full-field model (top) identified regions that would benefit from infill wells. Once a region was identified as a possible infill well location, the location was selected for a new simulation study with local grid refinement (middle) spotlighting the volume of interest. Reservoir properties were distributed in the LGR grid based on a geostatistical model (bottom) of the turbidite sandstones. Geostatistical Model 24 Oilfield Review Weyburn Unit Planning Enhanced Oil Recovery In an example of simulation later in reservoir life, PanCanadian Petroleum Limited is relying on simulation to examine the feasibility of CO2 injection in Unit 1 in the Weyburn field of Saskatchewan, Canada (right ).12 This field was discovered in 1955 and put on waterflood in 1964. By 1994, recovery had reached 314 million STB, or 28% of the unit’s original oil in place. Ultimate waterflood recovery is expected to be 348 million STB, or 31%, leaving a large target for enhanced recovery methods. An opportunity to take advantage of one method, gravity segregation via CO2 injection, is presented by the division of the reservoir into swept and unswept layers. Carbon dioxide injected into the lower, more permeable formation has the potential to contact large amounts of unswept oil in the tight upper formation since CO2 is 30% less dense than the reservoir fluids at the expected operating pressures (below right ). Evaluating the feasibility of CO2 injection proceeded in stages. First, using the GeoQuest fluid PVT simulation software, a ninecomponent equation of state was developed that reproduced the behavior of the oil-CO2 system. The equation of state also had to predict the development of dynamic miscibility in flow simulations while still representing the physical properties of the oilCO2 mixtures. The equation was validated by comparison of simulated and laboratory floods on cores. Second, general performance parameters were established for the formations to be swept. These included CO 2 slug size, a water-alternating-gas injection strategy, CO2 start-up pressure and post-CO2 blow-down pressure. 13 Then various orientations of injectors, producers and horizontal wells were tested with the ECLIPSE compositional R.13 R.12W2 T.7 T.6 T.5 Saskatchewan Saskatoon Yorkton Swift Current Regina Moose Jaw Canada United Sta tes ■ Weyburn field of southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada. Discovered in 1955, the Weyburn field has produced 314 million STB, or 28% of the unit’s original oil in place. Producer CO2 Injection Density Porosity Gamma Ray 0 API Neutron Porosity 150 45 Marly % -15 Unswept Zone Vuggy 5m 12. Burkett D, Besserer G and Gurpinar O: “Design of Weyburn CO2 Injection Project,” presented at the Second ECLIPSE International Forum, Houston, Texas, USA, April 15-19, 1996. 13. Blow-down pressure is the average field pressure maintained after CO2 injection is stopped. Usually this is lower than during CO2 injection to maximize oil recovery due to expansion of CO2. R.14 Swept Zone ■ Division of the reservoir into swept and unswept layers, opening the opportunity for gravity segregation of injected CO2. Carbon dioxide (blue arrows) injected into the lower, more permeable formation will rise to displace the oil (green arrows) remaining in the tight, unswept upper formation. Summer 1996 25 ■ Reservoir link with surface facility. Integrating surface network simulators with reservoir simulators will allow production managers to optimize flow and fine-tune field planning. Weyburn Unit km ax 60-acre vertical infill Original 80-acre infill 40-acre vertical infill in km Horizontal sidetrack 26 ■ A Weyburn inverted nine-spot pattern showing vertical and horizontal infill well locations and directions of maximum and minimum permeabilities (kmax , kmin ). Various orientations of injectors, producers and horizontal wells were tested with the ECLIPSE compositional simulator to determine optimal orientations and spacings. simulator (left ).14 Each original nine-spot pattern was found to require two symmetrically positioned horizontal wells in the upper zone to take advantage of the CO2 segregation process. Results of the parametric pattern studies, using a 30% pore volume CO2 slug, indicated ultimate recovery without any new horizontal wells to be an estimated 37% of OOIP. By adding two horizontal wells in each injection pattern, simulation predicted incremental recovery of 7.2%. On the Surface Once hydrocarbons have made it up the wellbore, most reservoir engineers consider their job done. But tracking fluid movement through a complex surface network with chokes, valves, pumps, pipelines, separators and compressors remains a daunting task. Optimizing flow through the surface network allows production managers to minimize capital investment in surface facilities and fine-tune field planning. Reservoir simulators are not designed to solve for fluid flow all the way through the surface-gathering facility, but they can be integrated with network simulators built for this purpose. An example of such a network simulator is the Simulation Sciences PIPEPHASE system. The PIPEPHASE simula- Oilfield Review Summer 1996 Simulation Speedup with Parallel Processors 2500 2000 Run time, sec tor, based on a pressure-balance technique developed originally at Chevron in the 1980s, has been adapted to handle large, field-wide, multiphase flow networks, including wells, flowlines and associated surface facilities. Through a joint project between GeoQuest Reservoir Technologies and Simulation Sciences, the PIPEPHASE simulator and the NETOPT production optimizer are being integrated with the OpenECLIPSE system to provide a way to simulate fluid flow seamlessly from reservoir through surface network (previous page, top).15 Integration is achieved through an iterative algorithm that minimizes the differences between the well flow rates calculated by the two simulators from a given set of flowing well pressures. The recent focus on integrated reservoir management teams is a major step in the direction of integrated reservoir and surface network simulation. But the emphasis has been on integration at the upstream end. The next step is to focus at the production and surface facilities end. Traditionally, the integrated study has been approached along two independent paths. For a project involving pressure maintenance through water injection, for example, the impact on the reservoir has been studied in isolation. The reservoir simulation is carried out with a simplified well model: hydraulic behavior of injection or production wells is approximated through flow tables derived from single-well analysis. A second study is typically performed by the facilities engineering group to evaluate the impact of the injection water requirements on the surface facilities. The reservoir behavior at the well is incorporated through an injectivity index relating injection rate to pressure drop at the formation. A limitation of this divided approach is that it ignores the true interaction between the elements of the surface network, the production and injection wells, and the reservoir. The results of a truly integrated study could be quite different. The iterative approach to integrating the PIPEPHASE and ECLIPSE systems, while rigorous, may be limited by convergence issues in more complex applications. The truly integrated solution, with the surface and reservoir equations solved simultaneously, is expected to require a large effort, since significant restructuring will be needed in both simulators. One promising approach is to initially develop a simple single-phase application for a gas field. The experiences developed in this effort could then be extended to address the larger problem of multiphase fluids. 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 4 8 16 Number of processors ■ Speeding up simulation with parallel processors. For a typical simulation, the 16-processor run is more than 10 times faster than a single-processor run. The Next Step The future of reservoir simulators may parallel developments in other oilfield technologies that provide a view of fluid and rock behavior in the subsurface. For example, the seismic industry, operating on a similar physical scale and on equally staggering amounts of data, has turned to massively parallel processors (MPPs) for data processing and to high-performance graphics workstations for visualization of the results. Simulation computer codes are being prepared for implementation on MPPs, but the switch cannot be made quickly. A simulator typically solves the fluid-flow equations one grid block at a time. The solution does not necessarily benefit by processing several steps in parallel. For a typical simulation, doubling the number of processors cuts simulation time almost in half, and increasing to 16 processors reduces the time to one-tenth (above ). Departure from ideal speed gains—16 times faster for 16 processors—is due to three factors. First, the parallel linear equation solution method is less efficient than the nonparallel solution. Second, it takes time to assemble and transfer data between processes. And third, load balancing between processors is uneven: some parts of the reservoir are easier to solve than others, but the simulation must wait for the slowest. Also, the high cost of MPPs targets them for sharing within departments or companies, so one user is less likely to get sole access. Early tests on parallelized versions of the ECLIPSE simulator indicate that gains in speed depend on the complexity of the reservoir model. A North Sea case with two- phase flow of oil and water in a relatively simple reservoir with 50,000 grid blocks exhibited a four-fold speed up using eight processors, and even greater gains for bigger models. But three-phase flow simulation in a 1.2-million block model filled randomly with geostatistically derived data with highly variable permeability showed less dramatic improvement. One application of simulators that will undoubtedly benefit from implementation on MPPs is that of testing multiple scenarios. Simulation results are most valuable in a comparative sense. Comparisons can be made of the production behavior of different reservoir models to gain understanding of sensitivity to input parameters. Or different production scenarios may be tested on a single reservoir model. Running such simulations simultaneously will save time and allow comparisons to be made efficiently. In the family of tools designed to help oil companies make effective use of expensive, hard-won data, simulation plays a key role in making sense of data acquired through different physical experiments, at different times, at different spatial scales. Simulation is one of the few tools available for understanding the changes a reservoir experiences throughout its life. Used together with other measurements, simulation reinforces conclusions based on other methods and leads to a higher degree of confidence in our understanding of the reservoir. —LS 14. Mullane TJ, Churcher PL, Tottrup P and Edmunds AC: “Actual Versus Predicted Horizontal Well Performance, Weyburn Unit, S.E. Saskatchewan,” Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology 35, no. 3 (March 1996): 24-30. 15. Dutta-Roy K: “Surface Facility Link: Production Planning with Open-ECLIPSE and PIPEPHASE,” presented at the Second ECLIPSE International Forum, Houston, Texas, USA, April 15-19, 1996. 27