Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service Pricing, News and Analysis for Buying and Supplying Ethanol-Blended Fuel and Biodiesel February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 Ethanol Futures (cts/gal contract price) February 2016 CBOT 141.40 March 2016 April 2016 143.00 144.60 Settlement Thursday, January 28, 2016 May 2016 145.00 Source: Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices U.S. RINs (prices in U.S. $/RIN) Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. U.S. Ethanol RINs Current Yr 0.6325-0.6350 0.6300-0.6375 0.6350-0.6400 0.6450-0.6500 0.6650-0.6850 0.64550 Previous Yr 0.6325-0.6375 0.6300-0.6375 0.6350-0.6400 0.6450-0.6500 0.6700-0.6800 0.64575 U.S. Cellulosic RINs Current Yr 1.3250-1.3350 1.3250-1.3350 1.3250-1.3350 1.3250-1.3350 1.3250-1.3350 1.33000 Previous Yr 0.6350-0.6450 0.6350-0.6450 0.6350-0.6450 0.6350-0.6450 0.6350-0.6450 0.64000 U.S. Biodiesel RINs Current Yr 0.6950-0.7000 0.6900-0.7100 0.6950-0.7100 0.6975-0.7200 0.7300-0.7500 0.70975 Previous Yr 0.6975-0.7025 0.7000-0.7100 0.7050-0.7100 0.6875-0.7150 0.7250-0.7450 0.70975 U.S. Advanced Biofuel RINs Current Yr 0.6850-0.6900 0.6800-0.7000 0.6850-0.7000 0.6875-0.7100 0.7200-0.7400 0.69975 Previous Yr 0.6875-0.6925 0.6750-0.7000 0.6800-0.7000 0.6750-0.7050 0.7100-0.7300 0.69550 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. Chicago (prices in U.S. $/gal.) Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Ethanol 1.3600-1.3700 1.3850-1.3900 1.3900-1.4000 1.4050-1.4175 1.4025-1.4200 1.39401 DP ETH 1.3400-1.3600 1.3800-1.3900 1.3850-1.4000 1.4050-1.4150 1.4050-1.4150 1.38950 B100 SME 2.7000-2.8500 2.6400-2.7900 2.6700-2.8200 2.7300-2.8800 2.7400-2.8900 2.77100 RBOB Unl 0.8838-0.9438 0.8450-0.8550 0.8110-0.8710 0.8070-0.8370 0.8803-0.8903 0.86242 RBOB Pre 1.4088-1.4688 1.3625-1.3725 1.3285-1.3885 1.3220-1.3520 1.3553-1.4203 1.37792 CBOB Unl 0.8738-0.9338 0.8275-0.8375 0.7935-0.8535 0.7870-0.8170 0.8203-0.8853 0.84292 ULSD 0.9757-0.9857 0.9401-0.9501 0.9663-0.9763 1.0270-1.0320 1.0297-1.0397 0.99226 Chicago Rule 11 (prices in U.S. $/gal.) Current Yr Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. 1.3500-1.3700 1.3700-1.3800 1.3800-1.3900 1.3900-1.4000 1.3900-1.4100 1.38300 Ethanol Market Overview: EIA adds legs to ethanol rally Bulk ethanol values continued to move slowly higher most of last week, but this time added in some supportive figures on production and supply from the government that may have made converts of out of some who continued to doubt the recent price recovery. Those looking for more evidence that ethanol producers are beginning to roll back production got it when EIA revealed output fell 2.2% for the week ending Jan. 22, taking it 4.2% lower over the last two weeks. The 961,000 b/d that the agency had ethanol plants averaging for the week cut 22,000 b/d from the week before and represented the lowest weekly output rate for ethanol since November. In addition, ethanol inventory nationwide drew lower for the first time since the week of Christmas, dropping 504,000 bbl, or 2.3%, from the week before to 21.436 million bbl. The U.S. stock draw still left supply 3.9% higher than a year ago, and it also came with some irregular regional figures that led to some head-scratching among market watchers – none more than the massive 794,000 bbl week-toweek draw from Gulf Coast storage. Gulf Coast storage at 3.679 million bbl slumped some 3.8% from the same week last year. For some, that Gulf Coast figure put a question mark on the overall supply draw offered by EIA. The Gulf Coast region had been running way ahead of the same time last year until last week, and some market watchers See page 2 for more spot pricing locations continued on page 3 In Each Issue ... Ethanol Market Overview .......................... 1 Renewable Fuels Averages........................ 5 Biodiesel/Ethanol Plant Profitability.........10 Ethanol and Gasoline Component Spot Prices ........................ 1-2 Biofuels Stock Performance...................... 6 Renewable Fuel Feedstock/ Co-Product Price Index............................11 Block Term Contract Prices in Key Markets........................................... 3 In Key Commodity Markets....................... 8 Bulk Truck Spot Prices in Key Markets........................................... 3 Inside Washington..................................... 7 European, Brazilian and CBI Markets..............................................12 Key Supply and Demand Statistics.................................................... 8 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service is an OPIS Publication | www.opisnet.com News of the Week.....................................14 | 888.301.2645 | energycs@opisnet.com Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices (prices in U.S $/gal.) Gulf Coast Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. Ethanol 1.4300-1.4500 1.4500-1.4600 1.4500-1.4700 1.4700-1.4900 1.4800-1.5000 1.46500 B100 SME 2.5600-2.6700 2.5000-2.6100 2.5300-2.6400 2.5900-2.7000 2.6000-2.7100 2.61100 RBOB Unl 0.9906-1.0006 0.9600-0.9625 0.9360-0.9710 0.9570-0.9620 0.9978-1.0103 0.97478 RBOB Pre 1.1756-1.1856 1.1575-1.1600 1.1710-1.2060 1.1920-1.1970 1.2328-1.2453 1.19228 CBOB Unl 0.9956-1.0181 0.9500-0.9625 0.9310-0.9660 0.9520-0.9570 0.9928-1.0053 0.97303 Unleaded 1.0306-1.0381 0.9775-0.9900 0.9635-0.9960 0.9820-0.9920 1.0278-1.0378 1.00353 ULSD 0.9621-0.9676 0.9051-0.9101 0.9288-0.9343 0.9845-0.9870 0.9922-0.9967 0.95684 61ULSD 0.9621-0.9676 0.9051-0.9101 0.9288-0.9343 0.9845-0.9870 0.9922-0.9967 0.95684 New York Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. Ethanol 1.4400-1.4800 1.4750-1.4900 1.4850-1.5000 1.4900-1.5100 1.4900-1.5100 1.48700 ITT ETH 1.4350-1.4600 1.4750-1.5000 1.4900-1.5050 1.4950-1.5150 1.4950-1.5150 1.48850 Ethanol Fwd 1.4475-1.5000 1.4950-1.5100 1.5050-1.5200 1.5000-1.5250 1.5100-1.5200 1.50325 B100 SME 2.6100-2.7500 2.5500-2.6900 2.5800-2.7200 2.6400-2.7800 2.6500-2.7900 2.67600 RBOB Unl 1.0773-1.0873 1.0250-1.0350 1.0422-1.0522 1.0382-1.0482 1.0715-1.0815 1.05584 RBOB Pre 1.2113-1.2213 1.1575-1.1675 1.1747-1.1847 1.1682-1.1782 1.2015-1.2115 1.18764 CBOB Unl 1.0773-1.0873 1.0250-1.0350 1.0422-1.0522 1.0382-1.0482 1.0715-1.0815 1.05584 CBOB Pre 1.2113-1.2213 1.1575-1.1675 1.1747-1.1847 1.1682-1.1782 1.2015-1.2115 1.18764 ULSD 0.9857-0.9957 0.9253-0.9353 0.9577-0.9677 1.0177-1.0277 1.0234-1.0334 0.98696 Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. Los Angeles Ethanol 1.4900-1.5100 1.4800-1.5000 1.5000-1.5200 1.5100-1.5300 1.5400-1.5600 1.51400 CARBOB - R 1.1131-1.1231 1.0575-1.0675 1.0885-1.0985 1.0370-1.0470 1.0403-1.0503 1.07228 CARBOB - P 1.4631-1.4731 1.4075-1.4175 1.4385-1.4485 1.3870-1.3970 1.3903-1.4003 1.42228 ULSD 1.0176-1.0276 0.9651-0.9751 0.9963-1.0063 1.0370-1.0470 1.0397-1.0497 1.01614 Nebraska (fob Railcar) Ethanol Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. 1.2350-1.2450 1.2300-1.2400 1.2400-1.2600 1.2600-1.2800 1.3000-1.3100 1.26000 Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. 1.5350-1.5450 1.5300-1.5500 1.5400-1.5600 1.5500-1.5800 1.5900-1.6100 1.55900 Tampa Ethanol Dallas Ethanol Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. 1.3900-1.4200 1.3900-1.4200 1.4000-1.4200 1.4000-1.4500 1.4300-1.4700 1.41900 Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. 1.4900-1.5100 1.4800-1.5000 1.5000-1.5200 1.5100-1.5300 1.5400-1.5600 1.51400 Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Wkly. Avg. 1.4700-1.5000 1.4800-1.5000 1.5000-1.5200 1.5100-1.5300 1.5000-1.5200 1.50300 San Francisco Ethanol Pacific Northwest Ethanol Calif. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Carbon Credit: $/MT; Carbon Intensity Pts: $/CI; Carbon Credit per Gallon Diesel: $/gal; Carbon Credit per Gallon Gasoline: $/gal) Fri. 01/22 Mon. 01/25 Tues. 01/26 Wed. 01/27 Thurs. 01/28 Carb Credit 117.000-122.000 122.000-124.000 120.000-128.000 122.000-126.000 124.000-128.000 CI Pts 0.00954-0.00994 0.00994-0.01011 0.00978-0.01043 0.00994-0.01027 0.01011-0.01043 Wkly. Avg. 123.3000 0.010049 CC Dsl 0.0321-0.0335 0.0335-0.0340 0.0329-0.0351 0.0335-0.0346 0.0340-0.0351 0.03383 CC Gas 0.0459-0.0478 0.0478-0.0486 0.0470-0.0502 0.0478-0.0494 0.0486-0.0502 0.04833 CC Dsl 95 0.0305-0.0318 0.0318-0.0323 0.0313-0.0334 0.0318-0.0328 0.0323-0.0334 0.03214 CC Gas 90 0.0413-0.0430 0.0430-0.0438 0.0423-0.0452 0.0430-0.0445 0.0438-0.0452 0.04351 Methodology and Definitions: OPIS derives ethanol, gasoline and biodiesel prices from many means, including surveying buyers and sellers via phone/e-mail, and receiving postings electronically from producers and purchasers. While OPIS makes best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of its prices, it in no way guarantees either the accuracy or timeliness of any of the data included herein. Definitions are as follows: Ethanol Spot Price (Bulk Barge/Rail): These are large quantity pure ethanol deals transacted or being discussed in certain FOB markets. Brazil Ethanol: Undenatured anhydrous ethanol cargoes, FOB Brazil terminals for export, typically 50,000 bbl or more available 5-30 days from the date of publication. The assessment generally reflects price at the Santos export terminal, though others may be used for assessment purposes. Block Term Contract Values: These are the three-to-six month contract deals between large buyers and sellers of pure ethanol. Some are done as fixed, and those deals are reported in the “Fixed” column. Other deals are done based on a differential to certain gasoline benchmarks (usually conventional spot unleaded). Those formulae are tracked and reported by market each week in the “Formula”column and calculated (based on the closing Thursday price of the gasoline benchmark) to arrive at a “Formula Calculated” price. All deals (“Fixed” and “Formula”) are reported from a weighted average survey. Bulk Truck Spot Prices (Rack): These are the prices for truck quantities of pure ethanol at storage points in the given market. These prices are not posted – they are offered to buyers given supply and demand dynamics at prices discovered and published by OPIS. Splash Blend Rack Prices: These are the average of the Thursday closing price that producers and resellers are posting at various rack locations. Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts. Splash Blend Producer Prices: These are the average of the Thursday closing price that producers (not resellers) are posting at various rack locations. Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credits: Traded in U.S. dollars per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2), this represents the daily traded price range or range of bids and offers on carbon credits generated for compliance under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard program implemented by the California Air Resources Board. Trading is for credits transferable in the current calendar year, until the last month of the year when deals for the following year may also be considered. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 2 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 wondered if it is a make-up call for overly large builds reported previously for the region. The Gulf is often a jumping off point for ethanol exports, which might be indicated by the big draw for the week. However, market sources have lately reported export interest is not easy to find. Especially after the recent price gains, reports indicate that foreign buying interest is light. Neither was the draw reported by EIA last week regionally universal. Both the East and West Coast regions reported health supply builds for the week and the West made big gains for the second week in a row, up 7.69% week-to-week as inventory rose 205,000 bbl, to 2.871 million bbl – and that is 23.9% more ethanol than the region had on hand a year ago. up about a penny Thursday for prompt shipments, trading at $1.535 and $1.545/gal and climbing as much as 8cts from a week ago as well. Despite a bit of a pullback in gasoline demand that was not unexpected given the huge jump it took the week before, EIA had ethanol blending moving higher again for a recovery that has now stretched for three report weeks. Ethanol blender net input averaging 865,000 b/d nosed up 9,000 b/d for a gain of nearly 1.1% from the week before and a rebound of 9.9% since the start of the year. Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com Ethanol losses weigh on Valero’s bottom line There remained skeptics of the recent ethanol price rally, and the market did seem to run out of steam by presstime as the week came to a close. Ethanol may have rallied too quickly for this time of year, and they maintain that given supply fundamentals, the market may be ripe for profit taking. Petroleum refiner Valero Energy Corp is also one of the largest ethanol producers in the U.S. and the company recently reported that a tough quarter for its ethanol operations helped knock its fourth-quarter 2015 earnings down by nearly 9.5% year on year. Chicago spot in-tank volumes did seem to stall at the $1.41-$1.42/gal level for anything available in the first week or so of February – but that is up 3.5cts since the start of the week and some 8cts week-to-week. In its latest quarterly report, Valero said that its ethanol segment delivered $37 million in operating income over the fourth quarter, down 76%, compared to what the segment brought the refiner during the 2014 quarter. “The $117 million decrease was mainly due to lower gross margin per gallon decline in ethanol prices versus relatively stable corn prices,” explained Valero. The nearby contango has eased as January drew to a close, but any-February volumes in Chicago still generally held a quarter to a half-cent premium over prompt transfers by presstime, down from a week ago when that difference stretched out to around 2.5cts. Prices for ethanol via rail cars headed to Arizona moved According to OPIS Spot Ethanol Assessment data for Chicago, during January 2015 spot ethanol prices averaged roughly $1.41/gal, compared to around $1.33/gal so far for In Key Markets Ethanol Buying Prices City, State Ethanol Truck & Spot Prices Ethanol Spot Price -------- Block Term Q4-Q1 Contract Values -------Bulk Truck Fixed Formula (Bulk Barge/Rail) Formula (calculated) Spot Prices (rack) Splash Blend Splash Blend Rack Price Producer Prices City, State Spot Prices (Rack) Rack Price Producer Prices Albany, NY 144.50 147.50 148.50 N/A N/A Cleveland, OH 145.00 166.40 N/A Houston, TX 149.00 151.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl 11 118.90 153.00 N/A N/A Decatur, IL 135.00 185.00 N/A New Haven, CT 153.50 156.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl 17.5 125.40 N/A N/A N/A Des Moines, IA 131.00 142.19 141.15 New York, NY 150.00 152.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl 14 121.90 155.50 N/A N/A Chicago, IL 141.13 143.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl 4.5 112.40 143.00 140.00 140.00 Louisville, KY 141.00 N/A N/A N/A 146.00 N/A N/A Minneapolis, MN 135.00 N/A N/A N/A 138.00 150.32 147.80 St. Louis, MO 142.50 144.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl 5 112.90 145.00 213.00 N/A Los Angeles, CA (90.1) 155.00 157.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl 18 125.90 163.00 N/A N/A Phoenix, AZ 154.00 155.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl 16 123.90 N/A 160.00 160.00 San Francisco, CA (90.1) 155.00 157.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl 18 125.90 163.00 N/A N/A Pacific Northwest 151.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 233.00 N/A Doniphan, NE 130.00 149.45 142.20 Fargo, ND 129.00 147.81 145.04 Indianapolis, IN 136.00 N/A N/A Kansas City, KS 132.50 145.79 142.82 Madison, WI 134.50 154.88 N/A Omaha, NE 132.00 144.72 141.98 Peoria/Pekin, IL 134.00 N/A N/A Sioux City, IA 131.00 150.83 144.67 Sioux Falls, SD 132.00 144.21 140.78 Topeka, KS 132.50 147.54 142.86 Wichita, KS 133.50 147.28 145.88 Denver, CO 143.50 259 N/A www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 3 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service January 2016 – a 5.7% cash price price drop. Valero did boost its ethanol output by nearly 3.5% compared to the year-ago quarter, collectively averaging 3.883 million gal/day at its eleven U.S. ethanol plants last quarter. The gross margin in those gallons dropped sharply, however, and at 45cts/gal the company’s ethanol margins plunged 47.7% year on year. At the same time, Q4 ethanol operating expenses – depreciation and amortization included – also dropped from the year-ago quarter, down 17.1% to 34cts/gal. That left ethanol per-gallon operating income at just 11cts, less than a quarter of what Valero reported a year ago. For all of 2015, ethanol operations returned $192 million in operating income, and that paled next to the $782 million that those operations delivered in 2014 – a full-year drop of almost 75.5%. Valero ethanol production averaged 3.827 million gal in 2015, up 10.6% from 2014, but gross margins fell by more than half, to 49cts/gal of ethanol, and operating income perethanol-gallon at 14cts slid 77.8% versus 2014. The year-on-year ethanol output gain was due to ongoing optimization and plant improvements, Valero said Altogether, Valero reported adjusted net income from continuing operations at $862 million, or $1.79 per share, in the latest quarter, down from to $952 million, or $1.83 per share, for fourth quarter 2014. The company’s Valero’s refining segment reported adjusted operating income for of $1.5 billion last Q4, in line with $1.5 billion reported in Q4 2014. Brad Addington, baddington@opisnet.com Molly M. White, mmwhite@opisnet.com Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com Annual NBB gathering brings plant updates The National Biodiesel Board held its annual conference last week in Tampa and among the planned sessions, events and scuttlebutt the meeting also generated a good deal of news from biodiesel producers looking to play a bigger role this year. A revamped Nebraska biodiesel plant is likely to restart production this quarter, according to a company involved in the retrofitting of the 50-million gal/year facility. “We are just in commissioning, and we are targeting a first-quarter startup right now,” Rob Tripp, CEO of process technology company Benefuel, told OPIS. “That is when we would be mechanically complete and putting feedstock into it,” he added while on the sidelines of the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo. February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 say how long it could take, but we’re hoping as soon as possible.” The amount of initial output is also unknown, according to Tripp. A biodiesel facility located in Connecticut’s largest city may be operating at its dramatically larger 13 million gal/year full capacity in a few weeks, according to a company official. “As soon as we get signoff from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and EPA, we should be up and running in the next three weeks, potentially at capacity,” Dehran Duckworth, biodiesel sales manager for Tri-State Biodiesel (TSB), told OPIS on the sidelines of the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo. “We have a tentative tolling agreement set up to keep the thing running at capacity from the get-go,” he added. The plant’s annual capacity had been about 2 million gal. Bronx, N.Y.-based TSB purchased the facility, Bridgeport Biodiesel, in early 2014 with expansion in mind. Bridgeport Biodiesel opened in the fall of 2012, so it was up for only about a year before the deal was completed. “We are doing test batches at this moment,” Duckworth said. “Everything has to be approved, and from that point on we are set up to go in continuous flow mode at about 1 million gallons per month. This was a pretty heavy lift to get this done, and it will definitely take a year or two to get our production solid.” The approval from the IRS involves the biodiesel tax credit. There are no plans to expand facility’s capacity any further, he added. Iowa-based Western Dubuque Biodiesel has been idling its 30-million gal/year plant in Farley, Iowa, on-and-off since November, according to a company official, who added that it has generally become a seasonal routine. “The plant has been idled at least one week per month because of market dynamics,” General Manager Tom Brooks told OPIS on the sidelines of the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo. “This happens pretty much every winter.” However, he acknowledged pressure from sinking petroleum prices, as well. “The lower price for crude oil is affecting the economics so customers aren’t pulling the biodiesel out as quickly,” he said, adding the company has “bought enough feedstock to run at full capacity for six months.” The company expects the plant to close the output tap 7 to 10 days per month “until market conditions change,” according to Brooks. In May 2014, Flint Hills announced that it would revamp the plant through Duonix LLC, its joint venture with Benefuel, to produce biodiesel through the ENSEL technology the companies have developed. “Winter months in our industry are historically tough, because you are going from a 20% blend to a 5% blend,” he said. “But then if you take the market economics – crude oil dropping its price, heating oil dropping its price and RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) dropping their price – the economics say you shouldn’t be making biodiesel.” “There is a normal winding-out process where you have to go through all the startup procedures and it’s hard to For the three weeks or so per month that the plant has been running, it is operating at “probably 75%” of capacity, www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 4 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 according to Brooks, and the situation is expected to continue for “the foreseeable future.” “While we have had some construction delays – primarily due to weather – we are on course to be in operation by this April,” company CEO Jeff Oestmann told OPIS on the sidelines of the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo. “Everyone involved in the project is dedicated to meeting that goal.” East Kansas Agri-Energy LLC’s project to integrate renewable diesel production at its 42 million-gal/yr ethanol plant in Garnett, Kan., is likely to be completed during the 2016 second quarter. National Renewable Fuels Averages Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks 142.657 157.792 109.185 123.947 E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 168.533 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 336.323 126.751 114.778 --.-- 114.816 108.866 Key Renewable Fuels Regional Averages Northeast Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks 150.000 --.-- 115.664 153.668 E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 205.684 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 306.000 126.582 133.000 --.-- 113.359 109.394 Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 150.000 160.000 109.652 144.763 197.332 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 262.500 111.407 --.-- --.-- 109.667 107.627 Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) Southeast Gulf Coast 149.000 178.448 108.572 128.286 149.931 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 328.970 106.466 99.358 --.-- 108.025 107.680 Midwest Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 135.815 147.235 99.164 118.066 150.182 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 308.474 120.578 130.397 --.-- 110.036 110.541 Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) Rockies 149.000 163.750 109.591 105.000 153.086 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD --.-- 109.450 --.-- --.-- 101.100 98.163 E-85 Retail (w/ tax) West Coast Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks 153.750 160.000 126.376 154.350 219.521 B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 407.300 160.260 127.000 --.-- 144.294 --.-- www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 5 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service From there, it won’t be long until it is operating at full capacity, Oestmann indicated. “Once we’re in full production, we intend to focus on the California market,” he said. “Our renewable diesel will have a very low carbon intensity score – one of the lowest in the nation. We see great promise and potential for our renewable diesel in Low Carbon Fuel Standard markets.” Plans called for the renewable diesel to be made from the corn distillers oil already produced at the plant, along with other feedstocks. The plant initially was to produce 3 million gal/yr of renewable diesel, with the ability to double the capacity in the future. Michael Schneider, mschneider@opisnet.com Confirmed: Abengoa to sell biofuel business Spain-based Abengoa is much more than a biofuel producer, but the financially troubled company recently confirmed the report noted here a week ago: That it plans to help right its ship by selling all of its first generation biofuel business, including its 373 million gal/yr of U.S.-based ethanol output. Recently the company submitted a restructuring plan to its board of directors. “The plan confirms that Abengoa will continue to be a viable and profitable company,” Abengoa said in a statement. “This plan includes the sale of non-core assets, including all ... first generation biofuels,” Abengoa said. Attempts to reach Abengoa for further comment were unsuccessful by presstime. Abengoa operates seven U.S. ethanol plants with the U.S., the largest being its two 90 million gal/yr operations in Granite City, Ill., and Mount Vernon, Ind. The company also has plants in Nebraska, an 88 million gal/yr operations in Ravenna as well as its York plant name-plated at 55 million gal/yr. Its Colwich, Kan., plant can make 25 million gal/yr as can its oft-shuttered Portales, N.M., operation. Presumably, the company will continue to hold onto its 25-million gal/yr Hugoton, Kan., cellulosic ethanol plant because it is not a first-generation facility. The plant opened last year with much fanfare but closed in November after Abengoa’s financial problems emerged. Abengoa may also retain its small Biomass York pilot plant in York, Neb., that runs corn stover feedstock. Abengoa “is a textbook example of a distressed seller,” said Pavel Molchanov, senior vice president and equity research analyst at Raymond James. “This means that it’s fairly desperate to sell off assets, likely resulting in cheap valuations for the buyers.” “Given that Abengoa’s biofuel portfolio is diverse – a range of countries, and also different feedstocks (including cellulosic) – the logical outcome would be transactions with several buyers. For the U.S. corn ethanol plants, for example, February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 top ethanol producers such as Valero and Green Plains would be credible buyers,” he added. Rachel Gantz, rgantz@opisnet.com Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com Stock Market Movers: Neste sets Q4, FY2015 earnings call date; Gevo gets NASDAQ delisting warning Finnish company Neste will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2015 financial results on Feb. 4 and has scheduled a conference call at 8 a.m. (EST). Neste produces renewable diesel at four plants. Two of them are at the company’s Porvoo refinery in Finland, one plant is in Singapore and the other is in Rotterdam. The combined production capacity of the plants is approximately 2 million tons/yr of renewable diesel. Neste stock closed at 28.29 euros on Jan. 28, up from a 27.41 euro/share close on Jan. 21. Meanwhile, advanced biofuel producer Gevo has received notification from NASDAQ, warning that it is not in compliance Weekly Biofuels Stock Performance Company Symbol 1/28/16 1/21/15 change % change 8.14% Abengoa ABGB ñ 0.93 0.86 $0.07 Aemetis AMTX ñ 2.24 2.14 $0.10 4.67% Amyris AMRS ñ 1.53 1.33 $0.20 15.04% The Andersons, Inc. ANDE ñ 27.37 27.06 $0.31 1.15% Archer Daniels Midland ADM ñ 34.70 31.92 $2.78 8.71% BIOX Corporation BX.TO ñ 0.70 0.51 $0.19 37.25% Bluefire Ethanol Fuels BFRE ó 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00% Bunge BG ñ 60.08 59.42 $0.66 1.11% Cosan CZZ ñ 3.04 2.66 $0.38 14.29% Dyadic International DYAI ñ 1.57 1.56 $0.01 0.64% FutureFuel Corp. FF ñ 11.92 11.65 $0.27 2.32% GEVO GEVO ñ 0.42 0.39 $0.03 7.69% Green Earth Technologies GETG ó 0.01 0.01 $0.00 0.00% Green Plains GPRE ñ 17.80 17.12 $0.68 3.97% GreenHunter Resources GRH ñ 0.14 0.13 $0.01 7.69% Neste NESTE. HE ñ 28.29 27.41 €0.88 3.21% Novozymes NVZMY ñ 41.56 39.53 $2.03 5.14% Pacific Ethanol PEIX ñ 3.11 2.95 $0.16 5.42% Renewable Energy Group REGI ñ 6.85 6.73 $0.12 1.78% REX American Resources REX ñ 50.64 47.85 $2.79 5.83% Solazyme SZYM ò 1.67 1.73 -$0.06 -3.47% Valero Energy VLO ñ 64.54 63.43 $1.11 1.75% DJIA DJI ñ 16,069.64 15,882.68 $186.96 1.18% www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 6 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service for continued listing on its exchange, and has until July 25 to regain compliance, the company disclosed in a Jan. 26 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing. Gevo said it received notification from NASDAQ on Jan. 25 informing it that for the previous 30 consecutive business days, the bid price for the company’s common stock had closed below the minimum $1.00 per share requirement for continued listing. Gevo’s stock last traded at or above $1 on Dec. 7, 2015. Its stock closed on Jan. 28 at 42cts/share, up 3cts from Jan. 21. To regain compliance, Gevo’s closing stock price must be $1 or more for at least 10 consecutive business days before July 25, the filing explained. Gevo previously received a delisting warning in July 2014. For its most recent quarter, Gevo reported a $6.5 million net loss. Gevo’s strategy has been focused on retrofitting existing ethanol plants to produce isobutanol. Since the beginning of June 2014, Gevo has co-produced isobutanol and ethanol side-by-side at its Luverne, Minn., plant. Rachel Gantz, rgantz@opisnet.com Molly M. White, mmwhite@opisnet.com Inside Washington: Sources: RFS Amendments Expected to Energy Bill; Votes Unlikely Senate debate on a wide-ranging energy bill began last week, and while not likely to receive votes, a handful of biofuel-related amendments were filed. Among the amendments: • One from Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) that would extend to E15 the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) waiver. E15 blends do not receive the same 1 psi RVP volatility waiver that is granted to E10. Under current regulations, summertime volatility restrictions are in place from June 1-Sept. 15; • One from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) has that would immediately repeal the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2); and • One from Sens. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) that would eliminate the conventional ethanol portion of the RFS. That mirrors standalone legislation the lawmakers introduced in February 2015. Toomey tried unsuccessfully to attach a similar amendment to a crude exports bill in October 2015. “Repealing the RFS as part of the energy bill is a long shot,” a source following the issue told OPIS last week. “While it is unlikely that any RFS amendment will even be called for a vote, it is especially unlikely prior to the Iowa February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 Caucus next week [on Feb. 1],” the source added. Debate on the energy bill continues this week. The energy bill from Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) does not include any biofuel-related measures – since that’s the jurisdiction of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee – but does include a number of provisions, including accelerating natural gas exports. The committee passed the bill in July 2015. Ted Cruz PAC running ad touting call to end all energy subsidies With the Iowa Caucus being held on Feb. 1, a pro-Ted Cruz super PAC is out with a new radio ad, further clarifying the Republican presidential candidate’s position on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). The ad, sponsored by the Courageous Conservatives PAC, takes aim at the recent claims that Cruz flip flopped on ethanol and RFS2. In 2013, Cruz co-sponsored legislation to immediately repeal the RFS2, but in 2015, he introduced an overarching energy bill that included a phase-out of the provision by the end of 2019. He recently clarified that he would support the provision through its current expiration in 2022. Recently, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) told reporters he wants Cruz defeated in the Iowa Caucus, primarily due to his opposition of the RFS. Meantime, Republican presidential candidate and front-runner Donald Trump touted his support for biofuels in remarks before the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) in January. “Ted Cruz opposes all energy subsidies, including oil subsidies, just like any conservative should. And Cruz had the guts to say it in Iowa,” the super PAC ad opened, according to a copy posted on its website. “That terrified Governor Branstad and the ethanol lobby. They got Trump to promise bigger ethanol subsidies. And they announced that Cruz must be stopped at all costs,” the ad noted. “But America wants a leader who walks tall and stands up against the lobbyist thugs and the politicians they own. Branstad and Trump. Branstad Values. Trump Values. Cruz can’t be bought and they hate him for it because Ted Cruz always has our back. Always. Every time. For some, this election is about keeping power and getting more. For the rest of us, it’s about taking our country back. ... Caucus Night Is Monday. Don’t Let Them Win,” the ad closed. According to The Washington Post, the ad will run on 105 radio stations for $40,000. In response to the ad, Branstad spokesman Ben Hammes told OPIS that the governor “has been attacked by Hillary Clinton and now by a group linked to Senator Cruz. Gov. Branstad serves all Iowans and will never stop www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 7 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 fighting for renewable energy and the importance that they have on our state and the jobs they provide for Iowa families,” he added. though, and NYMEX crude for front-month March futures gained a more modest 92cts for the day at $33.22/bbl – still $3.69 higher than it settled a week ago. IRFA Executive Director Monte Shaw, who has been involved in every Iowa Caucus since 1988, said “the more Cruz and his cronies run around saying that he opposes all oil subsidies, the more Iowan’s ask, ‘Then why hasn’t he done something about it in the Senate?’ He’s had years to act. Instead, he pursued a legislative agenda that picked oil as the winner and homegrown renewable fuels as the loser. That is his record,” he said. As things settled Thursday, market players tended to put the Saudi-Russian hopes more in the “wishful thinking” category. The facts on the ground still reveal corpulent crude supply and expectations are that the nation’s crude stocks will hit 500 million bbl this week. In short, there remain few signs of a slowing supply pile-up. “These ads will not fool anyone,” Shaw continued. “Attacking Branstad smacks of desperation. And attempting to link Branstad to Trump is just as dumb as it is ridiculous. They are spending pro-Cruz money to tell the 75% of Republicans who like the governor to vote for Trump. Branstad never said that, but this ad does. If campaign malpractice were a crime, whoever’s idea this was would be arrested,” he added. Rachel Gantz, rgantz@opisnet.com Though there is a lack of confidence in oil gains, the thinking is that RBOB could start to show some disconnect from crude with its lowest prices in the rearview mirror. February RBOB futures settled on the Merc at $1.079/gal Thursday, up from a brief stay under the $1 mark and after climbing back 3.33cts for the day and up 4.78cts week to week. The soon-to-be front-month March contract is now more active than February and it also gained 3.33cts Thursday, to settle at $1.1003/gal which is up 4.54cts versus a week ago. Market watchers noted that historically, February and March tend to be a precarious period to short gasoline. In Key Commodity Markets: In finished markets... Moves in petroleum markets over the last week may indicate that gasoline lows have been reached on the NYMEX futures board – at least that is the view of some who watched the market rally after opening the week on the skids – but that might not quickly heal spot markets. Certainly some of the global news boosting crude could turn on a dime, such as the large crude moves Thursday on reports of Russia joining Saudi Arabia in an effort to crimp output and shore up prices. The market faded from its highs, Another supportive factor for gasoline: The first of the seasonal RVP transitions are underway. While the futures markets are rarely affected by Los Angeles gasoline events, the procession of similar shifts around the country is likely to keep a floor under futures values. Part of the futures market rally comes from the speculative trading community favoring spring-delivery RBOB contracts, even amid still hefty inventories. Meantime, any solid gains in Merc futures may not necessarily fully translate to spot markets. Although the futures Key Supply and Demand Statistics Ethanol Supply Gasoline Supply Ethanol Production Ethanol Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg Ethanol Current Prev Mo PADD 1 Inventories 7,504 7,390 6,674 PADD 1 Inventories 64,900 62,000 61,067 PADD 1 664 664 682 PADD 2 Inventories 7,025 7,061 6,740 PADD 2 Inventories 58,900 58,400 53,200 PADD 2 27,179 27,604 25,007 PADD 3 Inventories 3,679 4,473 3,467 PADD 3 Inventories 84,700 86,300 79,467 PADD 3 772 868 643 PADD 4 Inventories 357 350 338 7,300 PADD 4 422 447 439 PADD 5 Inventories 2,871 2,666 2,450 PADD 5 557 556 455 Total Inventories 21,436 21,940 19,669 Total Production 29,594 30,139 27,226 PADD 4 Inventories 8,100 8,000 PADD 5 Inventories 31,900 30,300 34,000 Total Inventories 248,500 245,000 235,033 3-Yr Avg Gasoline Production Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg PADD 1 3,112 3,065 2,765 PADD 2 2,459 2,516 2,358 PADD 3 2,287 2,392 2,126 PADD 4 315 297 319 PADD 5 1,484 1,465 1,507 Total Production 9,657 9,735 9,075 www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 8 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 markets drummed up buying, downstream fundamentals still make it hard to support a similar move at this juncture. The Chicago CBOB market earlier in the week spent some time below 80cts/gal – in fact, CBOB prompts briefly tested historic lows by breaking south of the 75c/gal threshold. This often volatile gasoline market rebounded from its lows and traded at 85.28cts outright on Thursday ran a 24.75cts discount against the Merc benchmark which put the price up 5.08cts on the day, but just 16 points ahead of its week ago value. Midwest gasoline stocks remain solid and several more weeks of winter gasoline prices may get pulled up, but not due to stronger differentials. it took the week previous week. Running 8.941 million b/d, gasoline offtake retreated 138,000 b/d, or 1.5%, still a strong number, but behind the same week last year by 0.9%. Many analysts expect demand will tumble, perhaps losing 500,000 b/d or so, in the next week in part due to the winter storm that dampened driving in large areas of the eastern U.S. Gasoline prices on the street continued to slip. The U.S. average posted at the pump reached $1.813/gal Thursday, according to AAA Fuel Gauge Report, and some believe it may hit $1.80 before the weekend is out. In natural gas... While Chicago seems the most likely candidate, a few other gasoline markets appear as though they could also disconnect to the downside from the Merc futures. For example, Gulf Coast discounts topped a dime and by late Thursday amounted to 10.25cts on prompt CBOB trades. A 99.78cts/gal outright CBOB price did climb 4.33cts for the day and 6.04cts week to week. Natural gas markets took differing turns as last week neared its close, with moderating winter weather pulling nearby spot prices lower even as a big storage draw and a more mixed weather outlook going into February emerged to support futures. CBOB in the Group 3 market had discounts topping 20cts at the time, putting have those markets at prices below $1/gal on Thursday evening. The hefty inventory picture remains a key piece of the puzzle as traders contemplate the coming transition from winter to spring, and season spec shifts it brings for gasoline. But the feeling among some is that when the overall petroleum market does turn – and futures appear to have already started that process – a quick spike in cash markets may follow. For now, nationwide gasoline inventories are approaching record levels, according to weekly EIA figures, having climbed by 3.5 million bbl in the agency’s latest weekly report and at 248.5 million bbl hitting the third highest level on record. Gasoline demand, by EIA’s count, pulled lower on the week, but that was not unexpected given the huge jump At the Henry Hub, next-day natural gas cash values dropped 12cts Thursday to $2.12/mmbtu and that put it down 8cts on a week-to-week basis. Chicago Citygate gas dropped 9cts on the day and 11cts over the week, at $2.13/mmbtu. A lot of the cash trading Thursday got done earlier, before the government released its bigger-than-expected weekly storage draw, but sources noted milder winter temperatures in wide areas of the country ahead of the weekend. The futures market, on the other hand, got a boost when EIA reported that a week-to-week gas drawdown of 211 bcf took place, about 3% more than analysts and market watchers generally anticipated. In fact the draw, the largest of this winter season so far, helped NYMEX natural gas futures post its seventh positive trading day in a row. At $2.182/ mmbtu Thursday, Merc gas picked up 2.5cts on the day and ran 4.3cts higher week to week. Cooler weather forecasts earlier in the week that helped support gas prices also started to give way to warmer Ethanol vs. Spot Unleaded and “BOBs” in Key Markets New York Chicago Los Angeles Note: OPIS Refined Spots and Ethanol averages are based on full-day prompt assessments for each market. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 9 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service medium term projections and that that dulled the impact of the EIA report. The large draw on gas stocks still did not have traders popping any champaign corks, the overall sentiment being that one week of steep natural gas depletions did not change the heavy overall supply picture. EIA figures for the week have natural gas stocks still running 21% higher than this time in 2015 and 16% above the 5-year average. The blizzard that blanketed the Northeast with heavy snowfalls last weekend appeared to have little impact on prices or production. “Production remained strong during the storm, even in the northeastern areas” said EIA in a midweek report. In the past, low temperatures and storms had caused freeze-offs, but the agency reported dry natural gas production up 0.4% against the previous week, which also outpaced a year ago by 0.1%. However, gas consumption dropped 5.4% from the week before, despite, as EIA noted, the winter storm in the east. Meantime, the six-month NYMEX futures strip averaged nearly $2.3067/mmbtu at Thursday’s settle, up more than 4.78cts from a week ago and holding a 6.37cts premium over the Henry Hub cash market. In corn... Corn markets remained steady and sturdy through most of the week but they took a softer turn Thursday. CBOT front-month March corn contracts dropped 3.75cts on the day and at a $3.655/bu settle that took the contract down 1.5cts week-to-week. May corn gave up 4cts in CBOT trading Thursday, settling at $3.705/bu, and that is 1.25cts from a week ago. February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 The global market and questions about soft worldwide demand held sway over the market through a good part of the week. China reportedly ordered 1.2 million tons of corn for the 2016 first-quarter, but most of that from Ukrainian sources. Also, reports indicated China is attempting to cut corn prices at home in an effort trim its reliance on imports. Elsewhere, Argentina is reportedly losing some corn crops as it struggles with drought, but Brazil is still looking at a bumper crop with wet El Nino weather that has so far avoided some of the Argentine fields. A drought in South Africa will cut its corn production 25%, according to reports from that country. Domestically, a couple weeks of lower corn-fed ethanol production in government reports put some weight in corn prices by midweek. Analysts at BMI Research expect U.S. corn will be a bit cheaper than previously forecasted for this year, looking for a strong dollar to help keep a lid on prices over the weeks ahead. The group expects corn to hold support at $3.50/ bu with trading floating around spot levels as the planting in Brazil, Argentina and other South American fields start up. Spot corn buying in the U.S. remains very lax by most reports, some citing heavy ethanol stocks that have those fuel producers holding off on transactions. Kansas City No. 2 yellow corn trucks eased up 1.5-3.5cts week to week, at $3.655-$3.705/bu. In Chicago, No. 2 yellow corn talked from $3.545-$3.815/ bu retreated 1.5-2.5cts on the week. Plant Profitability Biodiesel Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal) Ethanol Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal) *Biodiesel production margin calculated from cash feedstock costs and sales values for soy methyl ester biodiesel plants and are estimates of industry trends under current market conditions. Profits for any given biodiesel plant could be higher or lower. *Dry Milling margin calculated from cash feedstock and product sales values for wet and dry-mill plants and are an estimate of the industry trend under current market conditions. Profits for any given ethanol plant could be higher or lower. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 10 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 In biodiesel... The petroleum market rally over the last week afforded some room for higher B100 rack prices as well. On average, B100 priced at the rack gained 3cts week-toweek, averaging $3.363/gal nationally by Thursday. At least some believed momentum for biodiesel values came from the fact that a rally off the lows in petroleum markets helped on-road petroleum diesel prices jump 13.78cts over the same week, lately averaging $1.08/gal. The premium for biodiesel over diesel at the rack ran $2.283, or about 4.5% less than it stood a week ago, but with the dollar blending credit factored in as well as EPA’s D4 renewable identification number credits lately trading around 74cts/RIN – or about $1.11/gal of biomass-based diesel – the premium could pare back to 17.3cts. That is about half the calculated B100 rack premium reported a week ago. In DDGs... Dried distillers grains have the support of ethanol plants trimming output for two weeks in a row now, according to National Renewable Fuel Feedstock/Co-Product Price Index Feedstock/Co-product Location/Source Spot Price Previous 4-Wk. Avg. Palm Olein US/Gulf Coast $0.3016/lb $0.3016 $0.3028 Soybean Oil - Crude De-gummed Central Illinois $0.2937/lb $0.2831 $0.2888 Soybean Oil - Crude Degummed Central Illinois - USDA $0.2956/lb $0.2881 $0.2887 Soybean Oil - RBD* Central Illinois - USDA $0.3187/lb $0.3081 $0.3138 Canola Oil West Coast $0.3737/lb $0.3581 $0.3625 Canola Oil Midwest $0.3487/lb $0.3331 $0.3275 Corn Oil - Crude Midwest $0.4050/lb $0.4050 $0.4025 Corn Oil - Refined Midwest $0.4950/lb $0.4950 $0.4900 Corn Oil - Distillers Midwest $0.2425/lb $0.2400 $0.2384 Beef tallow Chicago $0.2400/lb $0.2300 $0.2325 Choice White Grease Chicago $0.2275/lb $0.2200 $0.2144 Poultry Fat (Low FFA)** Southeastern US $0.2350/lb $0.2350 $0.2275 Yellow Grease Illinois $0.1925/lb $0.1925 $0.1906 Methanol US Gulf Coast $0.4250/gal $0.4200 $0.4438 Soy Meal (Hi-Pro)*** Illinois Truck $283.00/ton $280.00 $282.00 $3.8225 Corn Central Illinois $3.9000/bu $3.8800 Soybeans Central Illinois $8.9800/bu $8.8900 $8.8925 Crude Glycerin (80%) FOB Midwest $0.0738/lb $0.0738 $0.0769 DDG-S (Distillers Dried Grains w/ Solubles) Eastern Cornbelt - USDA $133.7500/ton $132.5000 $132.5000 Corn Kansas City - USDA $3.6800/bu $3.7050 $3.6313 ULSD OPIS National Average $1.0261/gal $0.8981 $0.9808 RBOB OPIS National Average $1.0588/gal $1.0395 $1.1050 Ethanol OPIS National Average $1.4266/gal $1.3531 $1.3478 Unleaded RFG OPIS National Average $1.0852/gal $1.0306 $1.0696 Natural Gasoline Mt. Belvieu Non-TET $0.7225/gal $0.6513 $0.7218 Natural Gasoline Conway In-well $0.7188/gal $0.6388 $0.7186 Ethanol RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.6750/RIN $0.6438 $0.6710 Ethanol RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.6750/RIN $0.6438 $0.6713 Cellulosic RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $1.3300/RIN $1.3300 $1.3300 Cellulosic RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.6400/RIN $0.6400 $0.6400 Biodiesel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.7400/RIN $0.7013 $0.7260 Biodiesel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.7350/RIN $0.7050 $0.7256 Advanced Biofuel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.7300/RIN $0.6925 $0.7150 Advanced Biofuel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.7200/RIN $0.6900 $0.7119 CA LCFS Carbon Credit California $126.00/mt $120.50 $121.2500 CA LCFS Carbon Intensity California $0.0103/CI $0.0098 $0.0099 *refined, bleached, deodorized **free fatty acids ***high protein Data provided, in part, by World Energy, www.worldenergy.net www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 11 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service EIA, and thinner margins, but some question the whether its current premium versus corn is justified. DDG prices ran flat to marginally higher over the week, but export slots are tight and shipping more costly. FOB Iowa DDG quotes running $115-$127/ton had the low slipping back by $5 on the week with top end of prices holding steady. At the same time, Minnesota DDGs from $115-$125 added $3-$5 over the week. Eastern Corn Belt DDG values gained $8 to $130 but the highest price held stead from a week ago at $140. The western area of the Corn Belt had Kansas DDGs once again holding steady from a week ago, at $140-$158, and Nebraska at $125-$145 up $2 at the bottom of the range with top unchanged on the week. In delivered markets, California DDGs talked $174-$185 held steady to up $1, while the Pacific Northwest added $1$7 over the week at $175-$182. DDG activity remained thin and there is a sense that consumers might be holding off on big buys to see if China does indeed slap on import penalties that might weigh on U.S. DDG values. Word on the import duties may come as early as March 20, but no sooner. In natural gasoline... February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 That, however, may be premature. The temperatures up the East Coast have risen back above 40 degrees Fahrenheit and there has not been any confirmation of an OPEC meeting. The downward trend in natural gasoline may have been halted but the bulls have yet to prove that higher prices are here to stay. In ultra-low-sulfur diesel... The diesel supply situation turned in a more balanced direction over the last week as some of the oversupply worked lower, but total U.S. inventories remain well above where they were a year ago. The EIA reported a net draw in total diesel inventory for the second week in a row, and the drop over the last week was deemed more than expected with distillates as a whole sliding 4.1 million bbl week-to-week. The ultra-low-sulfur diesel segment supply drew off 2.709 million bbl during the week, but the 137.886 million bbl in storage still represented a 22% year on year surplus. Every region except the West Coast and Rockies remained well ahead of year ago ULSD supply, led by the Central Atlantic region that dropped almost 1.35 million bbl week-to-week but still held 131% more supply than a year ago. The events that the market was looking for occurred from Jan. 23 to Jan. 28 – the record-setting blizzard from the MidAtlantic States up through New York, increasing demand for NGLs, including natural gasoline. The vast bulk of the weekly diesel decline was from the East Coast storage. Perhaps some stockpiling ahead of the blizzard accounts for the EIA’s robust demand figure of 4.005 million b/d. Refiner attempts to keep gasoline output firm amid lower runs are showing up in softer diesel production – the latest data have total distillate down 100,000 b/d after 200,000 b/d or so drops in each of the two previous weeks. The other event was a report of a meeting planned between Russian oil officials and OPEC members in February to talk over possible cuts in oil production. The report sent oil and products futures surging, boosting natural gasoline with them. ULSD futures which managed to climb back above $1/ gal with a run higher at midweek and by Thursday tacked on another 57 points, to put February Merc contracts at $1.0309/gal. After a period of declining prices and domination by market bears, it would be understandable if the price jumps have seemed to turn the tide and put the bulls back in control. The futures move helped distillate cash trading in the Gulf Coast leave multi-year lows behind by Thursday. At 99.57cts/ gal for the day, ULSD cash deals in the Gulf jumped 13.86cts The average natural gasoline price in Mt. Belvieu, Texas advanced to 72.25cts/gal Thursday, up from 65.125cts/gal on Jan. 21 and from 69.625cts/gal the week before that, on Jan. 14. European Biodiesel Spot Markets Rotterdam FAME ($/gal) Rotterdam RME/Gasoil ($/gal) www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 12 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service week-to-week. Chicago ULSD last priced $1.0347cts/gal outright surged back by 14.22cts on the week. Still, retail diesel prices continued to slip, averaging $2.059/ gal at the nation’s pumps by Thursday, down nearly 20cts/gal over the past month. European, Brazilian and CBI Markets: Rotterdam RME FAME Ethanol T2 $2.80 $2.49 $2.25/€2.08 Prices in U.S. $/gal., 1/28/16. Data provided, in part, by Starsupply Renewables, www.starsupply.ch and SCB & Associates, www.starcb.com European Markets Members of the German biofuels industry promoted the introduction of a European-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligation for fuels at a recent conference in Berlin. The groups also called for enhanced climate protection on the basis of continuous increases of the existing GHG reduction quota in Germany until 2020. The conference was organized jointly by the German BioEnergy Association (BBE), the Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants, the German Bioethanol Industry Association, the Association of the German Biofuel Industry and the German Biogas Association. Since the beginning of 2015, the German petrol industry has been legally obliged to reduce the GHG emissions of their transport fuels by 3.5%, according to the groups. “As a result of the conversion from an energy-based biofuel quota to the respective GHG quota, the biofuel share in fossil fuels has decreased,” they said. The legal requirement could be met with a smaller amount of biofuel, they added, as the GHG balance of biodiesel and ethanol has improved significantly over recent years. “From the point of view of the biofuel sector, the decision to extend the oil industry’s obligation to reduce their GHG emissions to up to 4% by 2017, as stipulated by the February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 amendment of the Federal Emissions Protection Law, is not enough,” said BBE Chaiman Artur Auernhammer. “The quota has to be raised earlier and include stepwise increases each year if we want to realize the climate protection targets.” In order to enhance climate protection through sustainably produced biofuels in the transport sector on a broader scale, he added, the petrol industry throughout the European Union must be obliged to strengthen its GHG reduction commitment. A general point of criticism of the biofuel industry concerns the lack of planning certainty for the period after 2020, according to the groups. The amendment to the EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/ EC) and the EU Fuel Quality Directive (2009/30 / EC), which entered into force in September 2015, does not extend beyond the year 2020,” they said. “At the same time, the period between 2016 and 2020 does not provide the prospects needed for investments in a sustainable and economic production on an industrial scale.” Auernhammer said that there is a need “for a continuous technology-open competition in the biofuel sector beyond 2020 in which biofuels of the first and the second generation can contribute to climate and resource protection.” He added that “certified sustainable biofuels from Europe must be a key element in the European decarbonization strategy both at present and beyond 2020.” Market update Biodiesel prices moved upward over the past week. RME FOB ARA had a bid-ask range at $828-$848/mt at the Jan. 28 close, about $9/mt higher than last week’s figures. SME FOB ARA had a bid-ask range of $758-$778/ mt, up about $17 from the previous week. PME’s range of $663-$683/mt jumped about $37/mt from last week’s figures. FAME 0 FOB ARA had a range of $734-$754/mt, about $13/mt higher than last week’s figures. Brazil and CBI Ethanol Spot Anhydrous Ethanol FOB Santos vs. NYH, Tampa Spot ($/gal) Anhydrous vs. Hydrous FOB Santos ($/gal) www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 13 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service The upward movement came as Rotterdam gasoil jumped about $49 to at some $308/mt on the week ended Jan. 28. Prices are supplied by SCB Renewables. Michael Schneider, mschneider@opisnet.com Brazil and CBI Markets Anhydrous Ethanol $1.70344-$2.00627 Hydrous Ethanol $1.64665-$1.79807 (FOB Santos, 1/28/16, prices in U.S. $/gal.) Ethanol inventories in Brazil’s South Central region dropped by 1.06 billion liters during first-half January. While that is not significantly higher than the inventory draw witnessed during the same period last year (999.36 million liters), hydrous ethanol inventories in particular were already lagging last year’s levels, and now the yearon-year gap is even wider. Figures from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture website show South Central hydrous inventories at 2.54 billion liters at mid-January 2016, which represents a 38.7% drop from 4.14 billion liters at the same point last year (versus a year-on-year drop at end-December of 33.2%). The hydrous inventory draw during first-half January was 615.9 million liters this year versus 579.1 million liters last year. In 2015, hydrous ethanol was competitively priced versus gasoline in Brazil, resulting in record sales of hydrous ethanol as consumers chose the renewable fuel over the fossil fuel to fill up their flex-fuel vehicles. One ramification of those steady sales has been the sizable drawdown of hydrous ethanol inventories, with South Central stocks at the end of 2015 representing the lowest end-December regional inventories in four years. However, motorists’ demand for hydrous ethanol is seen declining as its price has become less competitive versus gasoline. The drop in demand was already witnessed late last year when distributors’ monthly hydrous ethanol sales peaked at 1.74 billion liters in October and then dropped to 1.41 billion liters in November. Figures for December are not yet available. Furthermore, recent figures from Brazil’s National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) show hydrous ethanol pump prices averaging 2.62 reals/liter in the major São Paulo consuming center, putting its price at 74% of the price of gasoline. Because of its lower fuel efficiency, hydrous ethanol loses competitiveness when its price surpasses 70% of the price of gasoline. In Brazil, anhydrous ethanol gets blended into gasoline, currently at a blend rate of 27%. South Central anhydrous inventories also are down year on year, but not to the same degree as hydrous inventories. Government figures show regional anhydrous inventories at 3.03 billion liters at midJanuary 2016, representing a 7.9% drop from 3.28 billion liters at the same time last year. February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 The anhydrous inventory draw during first-half January 2016 was 442.9 million liters, which was pretty much on par with the draw of 420.3 million liters in first-half January 2015. The hydrous and anhydrous inventories are significant since most South Central ethanol mills wrapped up the 2015/2016 sugarcane harvest in December, meaning that Brazil will rely primarily on ethanol inventories and imports until the 2016/2017 sugarcane harvest gets underway. However, market sources note that this year’s interharvest period could be shorter than last year’s. “The biggest change is that Brazil will start crushing a lot earlier this year. The plan is to start crushing the ‘old crop’ in March and then move straight into crushing the ‘new crop’ in April,” one market participant told OPIS on Thursday. Along those same lines, one trader said he anticipates that U.S. ethanol shipments to Brazil during this year’s interharvest period will be “average to slightly lower than average.” Brad Addington, baddington@opisnet.com News of the Week: Gevo adds one to board of directors Advanced biofuel producer Gevo has added William Baum to its board of directors, the company announced. Baum has worked in the renewable fuels and chemicals industries the past 18 years, with Verenium Corp., Diversa Corp. and Genomatica. “I am very pleased to announce Bill’s appointment to the board,” said Gevo CEO Patrick Gruber. “Bill has great relationships with major players in the chemicals and fuels industry. He brings significant expertise in the areas of chemicals, strategic alliances, M&A [mergers and acquisitions] and biobased products that is highly relevant to Gevo as we continue the commercialization of our isobutanol and related products,” he added. House Oversight Committee hearing on RFS postponed Due to the impact of the snowstorm that hit the Washington, D.C., region the House postponed the House Oversight Committee hearing on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), a committee spokesman confirmed to OPIS. The hearing was scheduled for Jan. 27, and witnesses representing EPA, Action Aid and the University of Michigan, among others, were expected. A rescheduled date has not yet been selected, the spokesman noted. GoodFuels Marine receives RSB certification Netherlands-based GoodFuels Marine, a marine biofuel company focused on the global commercial fleet, has www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 14 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service received certification from the Roundtable of Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB), enabling the company to sell and promote RSB- certified biofuels to the shipping industry, the company announced. The certification has been awarded for two years. RSB has defined 12 principles to which biomaterials have to comply to be seen as sustainable and thereby eligible for the RSB stamp of approval, including the levels of CO2 reduction, human rights impacts and legal criteria. U.S. biodiesel consumption hit record level in 2015: NBB U.S. consumers used nearly 2.1 billion gal of biodiesel in 2015, a new record for the fuel, the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) said recently, citing EPA data. “We’re seeing it take hold across the country. Consumers are seeking out cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels and they see biodiesel as a high-performing, cost- competitive alternative to petroleum diesel,” said Joe Jobe, CEO of the industry’s U.S. trade association. “These numbers also show without question that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is delivering significant volumes of Advanced Biofuel to the American people. They prove that the RFS is absolutely working.” New York ethanol plant fined $87K for illegal waste disposal Western New York Energy (WNYE), which operates a 55-million gal/yr ethanol plant in Shelby, N.Y., was fined 87,000 after illegally disposing of industrial waste on its property, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) announced. “The investigation ... determined that WNYE and HydroKlean LLC, a company based in Iowa that specializes in industrial cleaning operations for the ethanol industry, were disposing industrial wastes generated during bi-annual plant cleanings,” the DEC explained. As DEC noted, “high pressure water is used to clean burned corn out of the evaporators used in production” at the plant. “The resulting waste wash water, which included trace amounts of ammonia and diesel range organics and is considered an industrial waste, was loaded into a vacuum truck and transported to an area at the rear of the facility and dumped into the ground,” it noted. Neste’s renewable diesel being sold in northern Italy Finnish company Neste Corp. announced recently that oil and gas company Tamoil has begun selling arctic diesel containing Neste’s renewable diesel to its corporate February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 customers in the northern Italian Alps region. The fuel contains a minimum of 20% Neste renewable diesel. “We are happy to be able to help our customer Tamoil to be the first in Northern Italy to launch a renewable fuel with excellent cold properties into the market,” said Kaisa Hietala, Neste’s executive vice president of Renewable Products. ADM, Growth Energy top lobbying spenders during Q4 Archer Daniels Midland and Growth Energy were the top spenders for lobbying during the fourth quarter of 2015, according to lobbying disclosure forms made available recently. By Jan. 20, firms and their clients were required to submit their activity for the fourth quarter of 2015 (Oct. 1-Dec. 31) to the Secretary of the U.S. Senate and the Clerk of the U.S. House. Brazil’s mills eke out sugar, ethanol as 2015/2016 cane season winds down Mills in Brazil’s South Central region continued to process sugarcane in first-half January, but sugar and ethanol production has dwindled significantly as a result of most mills in the region having wrapped up the 2015/2016 cane crush. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) released the figures Jan. 26 without any accompanying commentary. Regional mills processed 1.82 million tons of sugarcane in first-half January, representing a 49.15% increase from 1.22 million tons during the same period in 2015. UAE aviation biofuel initiative launched Aircraft manufacturer Boeing and a handful of partners announced recently plans to collaborate on an initiative to support sustainable aviation biofuel in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The partners are Etihad Airways, Takreer, Total and the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology. The project, BIOjet Abu Dhabi: Flight Path to Sustainability, will engage stakeholders to develop a comprehensive framework for a UAE biofuel supply chain, Boeing explained. The effort will focus on R&D, as well as investments in feedstock production and refining capability. REG, ExxonMobil to research producing biodiesel from cellulosic sugars Biodiesel producer and marketer Renewable Energy Group (REG) will work with ExxonMobil to research producing www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 15 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service biodiesel from cellulosic sugars through a fermenting process of non-food sources and agriculture waste, the companies said on Jan. 26. The companies said the research effort will look specifically at fermenting “real-world renewable cellulosic sugars” that potentially contain multiple types of sugars and impurities that could inhibit the process. “This research is just one way ExxonMobil is working to identify potential breakthrough technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase energy supplies and realize other environmental benefits,” Vijay Swarup, vice president of research and development at ExxonMobil’s Research and Engineering Company, said in a statement. ARF launches another ad against Cruz Pro-biofuels Iowa-based group America’s Renewable Future (ARF) has launched another radio ad campaign against Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz for what it says is his continued support for oil industry subsidies while calling for a phase-out of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). “We’re seeing a barrage of typical misinformation and disproven smears by the oil industry and its defenders in a desperate attempt to confuse Iowa voters and spin the issue of the RFS,” said ARF State Director Eric Branstad. Queensland gov’t announces formation of renewable energy taskforce The government for the Australian state of Queensland is leading a public inquiry into establishing a 50% renewable energy target by 2030, it was announced recently. “The Palaszczuk Government is committed to increasing the uptake of renewable energy to create the jobs of the future, continue to boost investment, act on climate change and also deliver value for both customers and government,” said Minister for Energy and Water Supply Mark Bailey. Managers of Iowa ethanol plant indicted over alleged tax fraud A federal grand jury in Iowa has handed up an indictment of two managers of ethanol production plant Permeate Refining Inc. for alleged tax fraud, saying they failed to account for and pay the IRS for income taxes withheld from employees. According to the indictment filed last week with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa, majority owner Randy Less, who served as a general partner and manager of the facility in Hopkinton, Iowa, and corporate officer Darrell Smith, who also managed Algae Energae LP, failed to pay Medicare, Social Security and federal income taxes withheld from employees over a four-year period that began in 2009. February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 Investors begin mobilizing to help clean energy transition More than 500 investors gathered at the United Nations on Jan. 27 to begin mobilizing the trillions of dollars needed to help address the transition to clean energy. The event, organized by nonprofit Ceres, the United Nations Foundation and the United Nations Office for Partnerships, comes more than a month after 196 countries, including the U.S., adopted an “ambitious” climate change agreement at COP21 in Paris that calls for countries to limit the collective greenhouse gas emissions increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. “Today, I call on the investor community to build on the strong momentum from Paris and seize the opportunities for clean energy growth,” said UN Secretary- General Ban Kimoon. “I challenge investors to double – at a minimum – their clean energy investments by 2020,” Ban said, according to a press release issued by Ceres. BMW may be first automaker to approve E25 BMW appears to be the first automaker to approve of ethanol blends up to 25% in one of its non-flexible fuel 2016 models, according to its owner’s manual. According to the owner’s manual for the 2016 MINI Hardtop, obtained by OPIS, “[f]uels with a maximum ethanol content of 25%, ie, E10 or E25, may be used for refueling.” Most automakers only support ethanol blends up to E15, unless the vehicle is a flexible fuel vehicle, which can handle up to 85% ethanol. Truck manufacturer PACCAR lauded at biodiesel conference Tampa, Fla. – National Biodiesel Board (NBB) CEO Joe Jobe presented truck manufacturer PACCAR with the Eye on Biodiesel “Initiative Award” at the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo in recognition of the company’s support of biofuels. “More than 100,000 trucks join renewable fuel ranks as PACCAR embraces biodiesel blends in its engines, old and new,” NBB said. “Considering average mileage, these trucks alone have the potential to run 12 billion miles annually, and they are just the tip of the biodiesel vehicle population.” Canadian biodiesel producer BIOX open to idea of expanding: CEO Tampa, Fla. – A recent increase in policy certainty within its own country and in the United States has Canadian biodiesel producer BIOX open to the idea of expanding, according to the company’s CEO. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 16 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service “If the right opportunity comes around, like everyone else we want to make good business decisions and make money doing it,” Alan Rickard told OPIS on the sidelines of the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo. BIOX operates a biodiesel plant in Hamilton, Ontario, with an annual capacity of 67 million liters (18.43 million gal). Ethanol producers in Mexico’s Veracruz state land contract with Pemex February 1, 2016 • Volume 13, Issue 5 Senate Energy Committee spokesman joins consulting firm Consulting firm Strategies 360 has hired Robert Dillon, who most recently was communications director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, it was announced. Dillon was also a senior advisor to Committee Chairman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). Starting in January 2017, ethanol producers in the southeastern Mexican state of Veracruz will supply Mexican state oil company Pemex with 200 million liters of ethanol a year to blend with gasoline, the Veracruz BioEnergy Institute. Osiel Castro de la Rosa, director of the institute, said that a contract is in place to supply Pemex with ethanol for 10 years. “Remember that there was a drop in sugar prices. This was the Achilles heel of the sugar agro-industry, and one of the most viable solutions was to find another use for this surplus sugar that accumulated for several reasons,” Castro de la Rosa said. “At S360, Dillon will focus on strengthening and expanding the firm’s current government relations, strategic message development, crisis management, media relations, and speech and editorial writing practices. He will be working on energy issues, as well as a broad range of other policy areas,” Strategies 360 noted. EPA would evaluate possible shift in biodiesel tax credit: Official Tampa, Fla. – A shift making the federal biodiesel tax credit apply to producers rather than blenders would likely lead to the EPA examining its rulemaking regarding the fuel’s growth, an agency official said. Group lists two FFVs among its least enviro friendly vehicles “We would have to look at that,” EPA Senior Policy Advisor Paul Argyropoulos said in a presentation at the 2016 National Biodiesel Conference & Expo. The American Council for an Energy-Efficiency Economy (ACEEE) released on Jan. 27 its top “greenest” and “meanest” environmentally friendly vehicles, but two of the vehicles on its “meanest” list involve flexible fuel vehicles (FFV), which can handle higher ethanol blends. Much of the talk at the conference last week focused on the desire of many attendees for the credit to shift to producers. It is believed that such a move might lead to a drop in the volume of imports, and Argyropoulos was asked if that might affect the EPA’s rulemaking as far as growing the biodiesel standard. Among the 12 vehicles that ACEEE deemed least environmentally friendly – mostly larger SUVs or European sports cars – were the Ford Transit T150 Wagon FFV and the Ford Transit T150 Wagon FFV. 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