28/0 6/2 011
Sect or: Ind ustry/ Pet roleum
P ETROVIETN AM DR ILLIN G & WELLS
SERVIC ES CORPORATION (PVD)
Co mpan y Up d at e
OVERVIEW
RECOMMENDATION
End of the first 6 months of 2011, PVD estimated revenue of more
than 4,000 billion VND, reaching over 50% of the revenue plan in
2011 and net profit after tax is estimated to be 500 billion VND,
reaching about 56% of plan in 2011. This is a very good business
result of PVD compared with other companies that provide drilling
services all over the world, which continue to face many difficulties in
the past 6 months of 2011 due to the fact that renting price of the rig
has no sign of recovery and the success rate of leasing decreased 0.2% over the same period in 2010.
Target price:
45,600
Current price:
46,400
52-week high:
5 6, 3 00
52-week low:
3 8, 4 00
In 2011, PVD has complete several drilling contracts for partners such
as the contract of PVD Drilling II for Petronas Carigali Vietnam, and
continue the contracts with the other partners of rigs of PVD I, PVD II
and 4 PVD rigs hired in 2011. In which, PVD has completed the
signing of the long term lease contract of drilling rig with PVD I, PVD
II, PVD III and PVD V at least till 2012.This ensures that drilling
operation will stabilize in the near future.
No of outstanding shares: 209,740,215
PVN
50,38%
We forecast that in 2011, PVD will complete the total revenue which
is estimated at 8,745 billion VND, increasing by 15.5% over the same
period in 2010, this revenue does not include revenue from the TAD
rig due to it has been operated since November 2011 and need time to
have trial run. Profit after tax was estimated at 953.8 billion VND,
reaching 7.7% growth over 2010. After-tax profit margin of drilling
activity will remain low due to in 2011, PVD still hire large amount of
drilling rigs serving the contracts signed.
Others
49,62%
STOCK DATA
Market:
HOSE
Par value:
10,000
Market cap (bil VND):
5,235
EPS 2010 (VND)
4,235
OWNERSHIP INFORMATION
PVD shares in our pricing are at 46,500 VND / share. This price
corresponds to the P / E forward level in 2011 of about 10.1 times, and
the EV / EBITDA forward level in 2011 of 6.54 times. This is the P /
E level and EV / EBITDA is relatively attractive if compared to the
companies operating in the same industry all over the world
KEY FINANCIAL FIGURES
Source: PVD, PSI Forecast
Please read the disclaimers at the end of this report!
PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
JUNE 2 01 1
REPORT SUMMARY
In the past period 2009 – 2010, a series of drilling and services companies of PetroVietnam
have heavy losses due to the renting price of the drilling rig decreased deeply as well as the
surplus of drilling rigs leading to the efficiency of using the rig relative low, on average of
only about 65.3% - 65.7% during the past time. In 2011, companies of drilling services
continue to face many difficulties because the renting price has no signs of recovery.
Renting price of the drilling rig remains stable as in 2010 and the number of new rigs
continues to increase at an estimate of 5% compared to 2010 make the difficulties growing.
In that context, the operation of PVD is highlighted in the business of the industry
considering on a world scale. The companies which have the similar scale to PVD mostly
had losses in 2009 - 2010 and continued losses in 2011. Meanwhile, PVD still has interest
each year with the annual profit after tax was respectively 47.9 million USD and 47.56
million USD in 2009 - 2010 and reached USD 46.5 million in 2011.
Business activities of PVD are very stable during the past years thanks to the advantage of
being a member of the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN) as well as the benefit from the
monopoly unit providing the drilling service and well services in Vietnam. PVD's share
from 30% in 2009 has increased strongly to 50% in 2010 and stabilized at 50% - 55% in
2011 and subsequent years. With three rigs on sea PVD Drilling I, Drilling II and PVD
Drilling III, which all have very high performance, often exceeding 99%, with total
operating time without the LTC (Lost Time Accident) trouble continuously since first
operating has helped PVD to achieve very high efficiency in providing drilling services in
the recent time and the superior performance compared to peers in the world and the
region.
Now, with their rigs, PVD has negotiated and signed the lease at least through 2012 and
will ensure the business plan set out in the year 2011 - 2012. The major contracts signed as
providing drilling rig PVD Drilling I to PVD Hoang Long JOC until 6 / 2013, providing
PVD Drilling II for PVEP Dai Hung until 6 / 2012, providing PVD Drilling III for
Vietsovpetro until 12/2014, providing rig PVD V (TAD) for the East Sea POC until 2015
and the renting rigs for the purpose of short-term drilling for BHP Billiton, Phu Quy POC,
Salamander Energy. This will help PVD to ensure revenue and profit of drilling activity in
the long future as a series of companies that provide drilling services is having worry for
the decreasing drilling leases due to too great competitive pressure, as well as the reducing
rent for a long time and has not recovered.
In 2011, with the completion of the rig PVD V (TAD) and is leased for 4 years with East
Sea POC will help PVD to continue to hold dominant position on the rig market in
Vietnam. The country now has 13 drilling rigs which are operating and two are newly
built. PVD owns 3 rigs, hiring four rigs and one rig is expected to go into operation in late
2011 will help PVD increasingly have more important role in national and outreach to the
region when the activities as exploration, exploitation of resources continued to be strong.
With impressive business results in recent years, PVD stock is one of the stocks which
have the best stability of price on Vietnam's stock market even though the stock market has
declined to -61% compared to peak and declined -11.6% compared to the end of 2010. The
above reasonable price based on the business advantages of PVD comparing with
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
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companies operating all over the world we determined at 45,600 VND / share. This price
corresponds to the P / E in 2011 of about 10.2 times, and the EV / EBITDA is about 6.54
times.
INVESTMENT POSITIVES
PVD is the leader in the key industry area of the country: As a member of Vietnam
National Oil and Gas Group (PVN) and the only provider of drilling services for the
Group, PV Drilling has a stable market. The Corporation's drilling rigs, including three
offshore ones, one land drilling rig and three hired ones are all modern with its
production capacity over 90%. The Corporation also accounts for the majority market
share in key industries such as 30% in drilling services, 80% in wells drilling technical
service and 90% in man power supply. In the future, PVN will continue accelerating
the activities of exploitation and exploration both domestically and abroad,
consequently PV Drilling is one of the companies to enjoy benefit from this expansion
orientation
Healthy financial situation: PV DRILLING has strong financial resource, the annual net
revenue increased 27.5%, profit after tax increased by 57.9%. The company also has
preferential enterprise income tax, exempt of corporate income tax in 2 years 2007 and 2008,
decrease 50% of corporate income tax in five years (2009-2013).
Extensive relationship with corporations / companies in the world: in 2010, PVD has
signed a contract with Baker Hughes Company; foreign oil services company has branches in
90 countries, establishing joint venture PV Drilling - Baker Hughes in Vietnam. This is one of
the first joint ventures in the field of technical services for drilling wells in Vietnam. PV
DRILLING also has strategic partners which are strong corporations / companies in Vietnam
and abroad such as Vietcombank, PVFC, BJ, This collaboration is an important advantage for
PV Drilling, searching for investment opportunities as well as effective support in their
development strategies. With Vietnam joining WTO, PVD will reach more new markets in the
world such as Algeria, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
INVESTMENT RISKS
Fluctuations in world oil market: petroleum service market depends entirely on the
plan for searching, exploration and exploitation of clients, so the fluctuation of world
oil price may affect the corporation’s revenue. If world oil price falls, finding and
exploiting oil and gas activities will reduce, thus making the rig rental fee also
decrease.
The competitiveness of companies in the sector: It is estimated that PV Drilling
currently accounts for 50% of oil and gas drilling market in Vietnam in 2010, but in
the future, there will be more foreign companies with long experience and more
skilled human resources in this area, thus affecting the Corporation's market share.
The risk of exchange rate: the payment activities of PVD are mainly in dollars, by the end
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
JUNE 2 01 1
of 2010, total outstanding foreign currency loan of PVD is 351 million USD, primarily to
finance projects of rig investment. Expected in 2011, PV Drilling will pay USD 70 million
for the capital amount and interest involved. The USD / VND increase will impact to
increase the financial costs of PVD. But in 2010, PVD has been accounted for in USD,
reduced the difference by the rate, so the exchange rate risk is limited.
ASSESSING BUSINESS PERFORMANCE
In recent years, although the world oil price is highly variable, the performance of PV
DRILLING has reached high level. The performance of the rigs is averaged over 97%,
relatively high with an average of 77% of the sector, industry group and other activities
also reach the business growth fairly.
 Drilling Service
Drilling service in recent years is always the service having the highest revenue, averaging
30-50% and be a focal developing area of PV DRILLING. Operating profit depends
heavily on the volatility of world oil price. In 2008-2009, the price of oil down to below
80% makes the operation of PVD in this year particularly difficult. In 2010, although oil
price have improved, oil drilling operation has recovered, in Vietnam due to the number of
rig supply still exceeded demand, and has affected the rental rig price. By the end of 2010,
average price of rental and operating rate of rigs in the market is only 126,000 USD / day,
while in 2009 this price is 150,000 USD / day and in late 2008 is 215,000 USD / day.
Although the renting price is declining, thanks to a series of contracts with JVPC, KNOC,
Vietsovpetro and Phu Quy POC signed in late 2009, in 2010, revenue from drilling service
still has strong growth. The whole year reached 3,886 billion VND, increased by 128%
compared to 2009, market share also increased from 30% to 50% in 2010 with a total of 6
rigs that PVD is operating including 3 drilling rigs owned by PVD and 3 drilling rigs hired
from abroad. Rigs which are owned by PVD have average renting price of $ 120,000 / day.
Rental rate of 3 hired rig is also at about $ 120,000 / day.


Sea Drilling: 3 sea rig PVD owning are PV- Drilling I, II and III, all are jackups,
capable of constructing drilling wells with depth from 25.000 -30.000 ft (equivalent
to 8.357 m to 9.144 m of drilling depth). Each drilling platform can simultaneously
respond to 110-120 people involved in working directly on the rig. In addition, till
the end of 2010, PVD has made 70.6% the construction progress of the Project "Buy
(build) new drilling rig supporting semi-submersible" (TAD). This project is
expected to be completed and begin drilling campaign in the East Sea JOC in the 5
year contract (Q4/2011-Q4/2016). In 2011, PVD is also hiring more Topaz Driller
drilling rig, increasing the total rigs that PVD owns and rent to operate up to 7 and
accounts for 53.8% of drilling market in Vietnam.
Land Drilling: PV DRILLING has only one land rig PV Drilling-11, operating in
Algeria in the three-year contract with Bir Seba. The rig is capable of constructing
drilling well with depth of up to 23,000 ft (approximately 7.000 m drilling depth),
capable of providing shelter and work for 130 people at a time.
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
In the year 2010 - 2011, PV Drilling has signed a series of cooperation contracts to provide
drilling rigs for Hoang Long JOC (PV Drilling I), Petronas Carigali Vietnam (PV Drilling
II). PV-Drilling III, Topaz, Offshore Absolute and Mearsk Convincer are operating in
contract with Vietsopetro and Phu Quy POC.
Table 1 - Customers in the current 2011 of PV DRILLING
Name of drilling rig
Lessee
Starting
Ending
Renting price
date
date
(USD/day)
PV DRILLING I
Hoang Long JOC
08/2010
06/2013
118,000
PV Drilling II
Petronas Carigali Vietnam
08/2010
06/2011
115,000
PVEP Dai Hung
07/2011
06/2012
120,000
PV DRILLING III
Vietsovpetro
01/2010
12/2014
123,000
PV DRILLING 11
Groupement Bir Seba (GBS)
10/2010
10/2013
30,500
PVD Drilling V (TAD)
East Sea POC
11/ 2011
09/2014
205,000
Aquamarine Driller
Salamander Energy
06/2011
07/2011
135,000
Offshore Resolute
BHP Billiton
05/2011
08/2011
122,000
Maersk Convincer
Phu Quy POC
11/2010
06/2011
108,000
Topaz Driller
Phu Quy POC
10/2011
03/2011
119,000
Phu Quy POC
04/2011
06/2011
118,000
Rented drilling rig
Source: PVD, PSI collected
The rigs PVD I, II and III are certified as having safe operation since first operating and
never have the incident of LTI (Lost TME Incident).
Business operation of drilling rig has very good effect. In 2009, when there just has the
PVD Drilling rig I working of full capacity, the revenue of PVD reached 1,400 billion
VND and profit after tax from the drilling reached 598 billion VND, profit margin of up to
42.71%. This is a very impressive profit level in the business activities. In 2010, due to the
fact that PVD hire 3 more drilling rigs of the suppliers leasing the drilling rigs for use
increased strongly because the drilling demand increased and number of rigs is limited so
the business performance has declined. Profit after tax of drilling activity in 2010 reached
573 billion VND. In which profit from the three rigs which are owned by PVD is 379
billion VND, revenue from 3 hired drilling rigs is 194 billion VND. After-tax profit margin
/ sale of drilling activity in 2010 is 14.74%. In which, the margin of the profit after tax /
turnover of the rig owned by PVD (PVD I, II, III) is 16.79%, net profit margin of hired rig
is 11.9%. The cause of business performance in drilling decreased in 2010 according to our
assessment that the cost for rent of drilling rigs decreased much from an average of $
150,000 / day in 2009 down to $ 126,000 / day in 2010 as well as the fact that PVD has to
hire more rigs outside with the rental cost higher than the cost of the rig owned and
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
operated by PVD
Table 2 - Effect of the business of PVD rig
Target (billion)
Drilling Revenue
Revenue of the rigs PVD I, II, III
Revenue of hired rigs
Cost
Cost/Revenue
Gross profit
Gross Profit margin/Revenue
2007
636
636
607
2008
1,503
1,503
606
2009
1,400
1,400
497
2010
3,855
2257
1,598
2,762
29
4.6%
897
59.7%
903
64.5%
1,092
28.3%
Source: PVD, PSI collected
Currently, Vietnam has 13 rigs operating in the waters. In which, PVD owns and operates 7
rigs, accounted for 53.8% of the market. Vietsovpetro owns and operates 3 drilling rigs.
Foreign contractors manage and operate 3 remaining rigs. In late 2011, PVD will bring
semi-submersible rig PV Drilling V (TAD) into operation, will raise total sea drilling rigs
to 4 rigs and will reduce the hiring of rigs as current. It is estimated that the market share
of PVD in drilling service remains at 50% of the market. In 2012, it is expected that there
is additional deepwater rig built by PV Shipyard at the special ship building plant of PVS,
which will go into operation, raising the number of rigs operating in Vietnam to 9 rigs. It
can be seen that the rig Jackup rig is the main type of drilling rig operating in Vietnam,
after PVD V rig goes in operation, it will be the first Tender type rig operating and the
renting price is also the highest among drilling rigs.
Table 3 - The rigs which are operating in Vietnam
Order
Name of the rig
1
2
3
4
PV Drilling I
PV Drilling II
PV Drilling III
Maersk Convincer
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Management
Unit
PVD
PVD
PVD
PVD
Owner
Contracter
Depth
(ft)
300
400
400
375
Operatio
n year
2007
2009
2009
2008
Type
of rig
Jackup
Jackup
Jackup
Jackup
PVD
PVD
PVD
Maersk
Drilling
Hoang Long
Dai Hung
Vietsovpetro
Phu Quy
Aquamarine
Driller
Offshore Resolute
Topaz Driller
PVD
Vantage Energy
Services
Salamander
Energy
375
2009
Jackup
PVD
PVD
West Prospero
West Ariel
GSF Galveston
Key
Cuu Long
Tam Dao 01
Tam Dao 02
Seadrill Ltd
Seadrill Ltd
Vantage Energy
Services
Seadrill Ltd
BHP Billiton
Phu Quy
350
375
2008
2009
Jackup
Jackup
Seadrill Ltd
Seadrill Ltd
Vietsovpetro
Vietsovpetro
Cuu Long
JOC
400
400
300
2007
2008
1978
Jackup
Jackup
Jackup
Transocean Ltd.
Transocean Ltd.
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
VietSovPetro
PVD
PVD
East Sea POC
300
300
400
5,000
1982
1988
2010
2011
Jackup
Jackup
Jackup
Tender
PV Drilling Tender
TBN 1
PetroVietnam
Jackup TBN 1
PetroVietnam
(NOC)
PetroVietnam
(NOC)
300
2012
Jackup
Source: Rigzone, Riglogix, PSI collected
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
 Technical services of drilling wells
This is the area of services which ranked second in the contribution of the total revenue
with an increase level over the years. In 2010, service revenue reached 2,065 billion VND,
increased by 29% over the previous year, accounting for 27% of total revenue. Pretax
profit reached 290 billion VND, increased by 86% compared to the previous year because
the company has focused on the development of services through domestic resources,
reducing dependence on foreign partners. The rate of implementation of small services in
the group of technical services of drilling rigs such as measuring the karota gas, issuing
winch, wellhead technique all rose at 83%, 62% and 32% respectively. In the future, to
ensure the revenue in the competitive context of the drilling market, and the reducing rent,
the company's strategy is to focus on the investment of equipment for developing of high
technical services in order to reduce costs. The array of technical services of drilling well
according to evaluation will be the key array to bring more revenue the years after.
Table 4 - The rigs which are operating in Vietnam
Drilling well services
Drilling revenue
Cost
Gross profit
Gross profit
margin/Revenue
2007
1,007
1,583
(577)
-57.3%
2008
1,519
1,252
268
17.6%
2009
1,978
758
1,220
61.7%
2010
2,670
2,082
588
22.0%
Source: PVD, PSI collected
 Manpower supply service
Manpower supply service always maintains well the growing speed in the recent 3 years, in
2010 reached 405 billion VND, increased by 88% and profit before tax was 127 billion
VND, increased significantly of 46% over the previous year. The numbers of rigs increased
in recent years, many foreign companies invest and exploit oil and gas with the expanded
drilling plan which are the major factors pushing the development of manpower supply
service. To prepare for future growth, PVD expected to expand specialized human
resources on shore for domestic and foreign companies.
 Supplies and equipment providing service
This is the array of service ranked third in the contribution of the total annual sales
of PVD. In 2009, the revenue from this array declined over the previous year, the
main reason is for the decline in mining activities by the impact of oil price.
Revenue in 2010 grew again reaching 767 billion VND, increased by 35%
compared to 2009 and accounted for 10% of the total revenue. Annual revenue is
high, but LNTT only in. Although reaching more than 700 billion VND of revenue,
the profit before tax is only 23 billion VND, because PV Drilling is only an
intermediary in the supply of materials and equipment, gross profit remained a the
level of 4-5% over the revenue.
 Mechanical repair, oil spill response service
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
These 2 arrays of service eventhough reached very high growth level in recent years due to
the fact that PVD hold large market shares, 80% and 90% respectively. The addition of 2
rigs -PV Drilling II and III in the year 2008-2010 has supported for the mechanical service
with sales reaching 310 billion VND, increased by 114% compared to 2009, contributed
nearly 4% of total revenue, Services for oil spill emergency response accounted for 90% of
the market share providing for oil and gas contractor, reaching 70 billion VND of revenue,
growing 31% over the same period. Despite high growth rate, these two arrays contributed
not much for the total revenue, in particular, mechanical service contributed only 4%, oil
spill response service was less than 1%.
Table 5 - Structure o f revenue, profit b efo re tax o f PVD
Revenue (billion VND)
2008
Density
2009
Density
2010
Density
Drilling service
Technical service of drilling well
Supplies, equipment providing service
Manpower Supply Service
Mechanical repair service
Oil spill response service
Other services
Total revenue
1504
1221
602
207
126
38
30
3728
40.34%
32.75%
16.15%
5.55%
3.38%
1.02%
0.80%
1400
1600
566
253
184
54
40
4,097
34.17%
39.05%
13.81%
6.18%
4.49%
1.32%
0.98%
3886
2065
767
405
305
70
74
7572
51.32%
27.27%
10.13%
5.35%
4.03%
0.92%
0.98%
Pr ofit be fore ta x (billion
VND)
2008
Density
2009
Density
2010
Density
Drilling service
Technical service of drilling well
Supplies, equipment providing service
Manpower Supply Service
Mechanical repair service
Oil spill response service
Other services
Total revenue
721
84
10
57
22
20
16
930
77.53%
9.03%
1.08%
6.13%
2.37%
2.15%
1.72%
505
156
19
87
50
33
76
926
54.54%
16.85%
2.05%
9.40%
5.40%
3.56%
8.21%
623
290
23
127
31
40
61.10%
28.50%
2.30%
12.50%
2.60%
3.40%
1134
So u rc e : PVD , PSI col l ec t ed
ASSESSING F INANCIAL CONDITI ONS
Revenue, profit
After listing in 2006, PVD has achieved remarkable growth, in which the net sale is
doubled, increased on average of 103% from 2006 to 2007; Net income increased 395%
annually. The listing on the stock market have created conditions for companies in raising
capital, investing in ocean rig PV Drilling I and develop high-tech services, help PVD to
have the outstanding progress in 2007 when the drilling rig PV drilling I officially went
into operation after nearly two years closing. Growth in 2009 slowed down comparing to
2008, Net income decreased by 12.4% due to the sank oil exploitation activities because
Net income in 2009 suddenly dropped 12% due to two main reasons: firstly, the world oil
price decreased strongly from the highest price of $ 147 / barrel in July of 2008 to about $
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JUNE 201 1
PETROVIETNAM SE CURIT IE S IN CORP ORATE D
34 / barrel, affecting the renting price of drilling service. From the fourth quarter of 2009,
price for renting of drilling rig is from 180.000 to 200.000 $ / day reduced to $ 150,000 /
day. Secondly, because the company had recorded losses from exchange rate differences of
nearly 150 billion VND, after the VND depreciated of 5.4% against the USD in November
after the State Bank of Vietnam adjust the exchange rate. (Source: PVD). However, the
situation has improved in recent years with total revenue of more than 7,572 billion VND,
increased approximately 85% over the same period. Profit after tax was 882 billion VND,
increased by 8% in comparison with 2009, and increased by 7 times compared to the time
of listing in 2006.
EPS fell by nearly 2,000 VND in 2009 because the profit after tax decreased, at the same
time, PVD issued 25,716,285 additional shares to implement the merger of PVD Invest
with PV Drilling, and 52,624,426 shares for dividend in 2009 to keep profit serving the
investment of TAD rig. In 2010, EPS reached 4,235 VND, decreased of 1,630 VND
eventhough the after tax profit increased by 8% because the number of shares outstanding
in 2010 continued to increase by 52%. The decrease of EPS may affect the attraction of
foreign investment through stock, however, in the long-term, retention of capital for
business expansion, merger and investment of more drilling rigs will increase the
competitiveness of PVD. EPS of the years after will rise again due to revenue from
bringing TAD rigs into operation.
Table 1: Basic earning per share (EPS)
8,000
7,431
7,000
6,000
6,192
5,865
5,000
4,235
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,405
1,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Q1/2011
Source: PVD, PSI collected
Tab le 2 - Net sales a nd P AT
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Table 3 - To tal a ssets a nd charter cap ital
JUNE 2 01 1
PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
18,000
Billions
8,000
7,572
7,000
14,000
6,000
12,000
5,000
4,000
2,000
12,368
8,633
8,000
2,032
933
1,000
4,000
2,133
2,000
886
818
296
329
-
-
2008
2008
2009
Doa nh thu thuầ n
2010
5,236
4,232
6,000
3,000
15,366
14,640
10,000
4,097
3,729
Billions
16,000
Q1/2011
2009
2010
Tổng tài sản
Q1/2011
Vốn chủ sở hữu
Lợi nhuậ n sa u thuế
Source: PVD, PSI collected
Source: PVD, PSI collected
Assets
Total assets of PVD increased continuously in recent years. In late 2010, total assets of
PVD reached 14,639 billion VND, increased by 69.5% compared with the end of 2008 and
7 times compared to the time of listing at the end of 2006. In particular, the mobile assets
at the end of 2010 was 3,211 billion VND, except the surge of more than 1000 billion VND
after the listing at the end of 2006, the years after increased fairly with the average speed
of about 25%. Long-term assets of PVD in which the tangible assets accounted for 82%,
increased rapidly in recent years, especially from 2007 to 2009 with more than 7,000
billion. The main reason is that in this period, PVD continuosly brings the 2 rigs, PV
Drilling II and III into operation. By the end of 2010, long-term asset of PVD was about
11,429 billion VND; increasing by 1,626 billion VND compared to the end of 2009, mainly
due to the ongoing investment of TAD rig, and complete the investment of workshops in
Dong Xuyen. In 2011, long-term asset is expected to increase significantly after the TAD
rig was put into operation.
Billions
Table 4: Total asset structure over the years
11,429
12,000
9,803
10,000
8,000
6,568
6,000
4,000
2,000
2,656
2,065
1,494 1,671
680
2,565
3,211
0
2006
2007
Tài sản ngắn hạn
2008
2009
2010
Tài sản dài hạn
Source: PVD, PSI collected
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Cost
In the cost structure, cost of goods sold accounted for the largest percentage, management
cost and financial costs accounted for reasonable proportion of total cost. Management cost
increased by over 40% in 2009, 2010, by putting two rigs PV - Drilling II and III into
operation, increasing the management fee, but the revenue also increased 10% and 85%
respectively so the density should not change. Financial cost incurred in 2009 was 322
billion VND, increased by 93 billion dong compared with 2008, because PV Drilling has
actively negotiated with customers receiving most of their revenue in USD, with the
scarcity of USD since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2010, financial cost increased 40%
primarily due to interest expense increasing more than 200 billion from 2 bridge loans with
Vietcombank and Vietinbank.
Cost of sale accounted for very small proportion of total cost, about 0.1%. Currently, the
domestic market for leasing of drilling rig is still monopolized by PVD, therefore there
doesn’t arise not so much the cost for advertising activities in the future in order to earn
more customers, improve competitiveness, this cost may increase.
Table 5: Total cost structure over the years
100%
5.94%
6.63%
90%
80%
70%
4.05%
3.11%
6.27%
8.36%
17.56%
11.77%
60%
50%
40%
74%
30%
68%
70%
77%
20%
10%
0%
2007
2008
Chi phí quả n lý
2009
2010
Chi phí bá n hà ng
Chi phí tà i chính
Giá vốn hà ng bá n
Source: PVD, PSI collected
Financial Index
 Target of solvency
Quick ratio and Coefficient of short-term solvency: These indicators are quite good in 2006
and 2007 with the indexes are greater than 1, but declined slightly in the years 2008 - 2009
due to short-term debts of the company increased nearly 60% over the same period last
year to invest more rigs PV Drilling II and III. In 2010, PVD invests to expand business, as
increasing the number of karota gas stations, buy equipments: wellhead, winch ... and
disbursed about 580 billion VND (approximately 31 million USD) to invest in TAD rig,
including 13.3 million USD from the 2 bridge loans with Vietcombank and Vietinbank.
However, the ratio in 2010 improved more than the end of 2008 when short-term debt
increased strongly of more than 1,800 billion to finance the building of the 2 rigs PV
Drilling 2 and 3, due to the cost charged the contractor building the rigs PV Drilling II and
III which were recorded in 2009.
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Table 6: Target of solvency
2.50
1.03
2.00
0.81
0.87
1.50
1.00
0.53
0.72
0.90
0.50
0.78
0.49
0.00
2008
2009
2010
Q1/2011
Hệ số khả năng thanh toán ngắn hạn
Hệ số thanh toán nhanh
Source: PVD, PSI collected
 Target of capital structure
Debts of PVD are mainly long-term debts, representing more than 50% of total liabilities.
Liabilities / Total asset in recent years has stabilized at around 65%, Liabilities / Total Equity
averaged at 180% show that the funding for investment of the rigs is primarily from loans.
However, the rate of Long-term debt / Total asset and Long-term debt / Total equity decreased
in 2010 showing that part of long-term debt was paid down.
Table 7: Liabilities Structure
Table 8: Longterm and shortterm debt
350.00%
300.00%
250.00%
290.67%
281.63%
227.39%
200.00%
250.00%
191.96%
200.00%
150.00%
100.00%
69.60%
65.68%
64.13%
104.43%
50.00%
50.00%
0.00%
132.99%
179.30%
150.00%
100.00%
182.43%
34.21%
24.71%
2008
2009
Nợ phải trả / Tổng tài sản
35.76%
2010
103.23%
99.20%
45.08%
58.96%
45.50%
25.58%
Q1/2011
Nợ phải trả/ Vốn chủ sở hữu
Tỷ suất tự tài trợ
Source: PVD, PSI collected
0.00%
20.17%
24.52%
2008
2009
76.07%
81.69%
63.28%
36.92%
27.21%
2010
22.74%
Q1/2011
Nợ dài hạn /Tổng tà i sản
Nợ dài hạn /Vốn chủ sơ hữu
Nợ ngắn hạn/Tổng tài sả n
Nợ ngắn hạ n/Vốn chủ sở hữu
Sou rce : PVD, PSI collected
 Target of profitability
Indicators of ROE, ROA declined in recent years, in which ROA decreased by 0.43%,
ROE% decreased by 2.41% in 2010. Main reason is due to PVD is investing to increase the
market share through the additional purchase of equipment and machinery, and the
issuance of additional shares at the end of 2009 to pay dividend and merge with PVD
Invest. Gross profit margin was maintained at 30% in the years before, in 2010 it was
reduced by more than 7%, because the rig PV Drilling I temporarily stop operating for
routine maintenance of 3 years / time in February of 2011. Also, due to weather problem,
the two rigs PV Drilling II and III can not be dragged to the place of drilling following the
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contract in two first months of 2010.
Profit after tax / net sale, Operating profit/ Net sale decreased along with the indicator of
the operational capacity of the Company, however, the level of decrease is not serious
because the company still maintained stable business activities. All 6 rigs have leasing
contracts in 2011, while the putting of TAD into operation with the rent of $ 205,000 / day,
business result will be better this year.
 Table 9– Target of profitability
50%
45%
43.74%
40%
35%
30%
32.41%
30.27%
23.22%
25%
20%
15%
23.57%
19.32%
16.91%
10.76%
10%
7.49%
6.96%
5%
5.35%
2.18%
0%
2008
2009
ROE
ROA
2010
Q1/2011
Biên lợi nhuận gộp
Source: PVD, PSI collected
Update on business results
Because drilling rigs are working continuously with the average efficiency of 98%, quarter
I / 2010, PVD has achieved significant revenue growth. Net revenue reached 2,301.91
billion VND, increased by 68% over the same period. Gross profit reached over 478 billion
VND, increased by 90.47% over the same period. Net income reached 295.58 billion VND,
in which the net profit reached 294.76 billion VND, increased by 219% over the same
period. It is estimated that in the first 6 months of 2011, sale of PVD reached about 4,000
billion VND; profit after tax of 6 months is estimated at over 500 billion VND, estimated
to reach 55.6% of the profit after tax plan in 2011.
Currently, the marine rigs of PVD are operating stably, safely and reach the operation
efficiency of 98% - 99%. The rigs PV Drilling I, II & III are providing services for
Petronas Carigali Vietnam Limited Co. - Malaysia JOC, PVEP Ursa and Vietsovpetro with
long-term contract of 3 years. Also, PVD signed the contracts to supply drilling rig
"Aquamarine Driller" for Salamander Energy, Maersk Convincer for Phu Quy POC, Topaz
Driller for Phu Quy POC and Offshore "Resolute" for BHP Billiton (Australia). Land rig
also had long-term contract with GBRS in 03 years with the rent of $ 30.500 / day.
Currently, plan to issue 1.500 billion VND of shares to raise capital for the rig MPJU since
2010 of PVD is being temporarily postponed. The company is researching and considering
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further the feasibility of the project to ensure the project to suit the market conditions.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
In the region and the world
Eventhough the world economy was temporarily out of recession and is on the rebound, the oil
price also increased sharply in recent time, the rig market is still facing many challenges. All
over the world, the number of rigs participating in the market up to date is 638 rigs, increased
by 46 rigs compared with mid 2010, corresponding to the increase level of 7.77%. In addition,
there are also 33 new rigs being built, of which about 20 rigs are expected to operate in 2011.
The number of rigs increased while the performance is only on average of about 65%, this will
make the competitiveness on the drilling market becoming more severe.
Southeast Asia with the unique geological area of being the area rich in hydrocarbon resources
in shallow water and onshore, therefore, this area has the most drilling rigs operating. The
number of drilling rigs has increased from 84 rigs in 2010 to 95 rigs by mid-2011. In which the
number of rigs operating in mid-2011 is 69 rigs, reaching the operating efficiency of 72.6%,
higher than the world average oerating efficiency of 65.34%. In various types of rigs, the rig of
semisub type is the rig having the highest efficiency, followed by the Drill Bange rig. In
Vietnam, there currently has been 3 drilling rigs of PVD which are of Jackup type, two rigs are
built, including one rig of Tender type which is a semi-submersible PVD rig built by Keppel,
expected to go into operation in 2011 and a water jackup rig of 90m depth built by PV
Shipyard, expected to go into operation in 2012.
However, with the general situation of supply exceeding demand all over the world, the
capacity of drilling rigs in Southeast Asia reached only 72.6%, therefore, the companies all use
price competitiveness to win contracts. Rents are also falling to only 117,000 USD / day. In the
near future, in Southeast Asia, it is expected to have 11 additional rigs in 2011 and in 2012 of 5
rigs. In Vietnam today, mainly the kind of Jackup IC 200 '+ WD rig is operating. In 2011 there
is a PVD V rig which is the Tender type going into operation.
Table 10: Efficiency of using the rigs in the region
Table 11: Efficiency of using the rigs in types
S o ur c e : ri g zo ne, PS I col l ec t ed
So u r ce: r i gz o ne , PSI c o ll e ct ed
Table 7 - The rent for some current types of rig
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
Type of rig
Number of rigs
operating
Drillship 4000'+ WD
Semisub < 1500' WD
Semisub 1500'+ WD
Semisub 4000'+ WD
Jackup IC < 250' WD
Jackup IC 250' WD
Jackup IC 300' WD
Jackup IC 300'+ WD
Inland Barge
Platform Rig
Tender
Total rigs
42
11
64
79
31
40
85
118
40
146
22
56
18
86
100
53
64
125
151
75
250
32
Average rent/day
(USD)
464,000
249,000
291,000
418,000
71,000
85,000
96,000
135,000
39,000
42,000
130,000
So u r ce : ri g z o ne , PSI co l le c t ed
The world economy in 2011 is expected to remain slow recovery with the fear of debt in the
European and inflation in developing countries. World crude oil price in 2011 is expected to
remain at 90-100USD/barrel, and according to the predict of OPEC, oil demand in 2011 will
reach 88.2 million barrels / day on average, increased by about 1.3 million barrels / day
compared with 2010. In which, Asia will be the market havign demand for oil increased the
most with the consumption of more than 900 million barrels / day, increased by 400 million
barrels compared to 2010 (PTT Group Report, 2011). This increasing trend will support to
promote the exploration and exploitation all over the world, particularly in Asia.
Table 12: Demand for crude oil and the expected growth in 2011
Source: PTT Groups,Oil Market 2011 Outlook
Do mestic
Oil a nd g as in dustr y is t he k ey econ o mi c sect o r o f t h e coun t r y, co ntrib uti n g
on a vera ge of 20 % of ex p ort val ue, 16 % G DP an d 24 % for t he st at e b udg et,
in which t he oil drilli ng is o ne of t he i mporta nt ar eas o f t he oil an d gas
industr y. Vi et na mese ri g mar ket is q uit e d yn ami c; d eman d for drilli ng ri gs is
still great er t ha n t he s upp l y of ri gs, o n av era ge of 9-1 2 ri gs / year. Cur r entl y,
ther e ar e 1 3 ri gs op erati ng o ffs hor e, i n whi ch P VD has 6 ri gs , acco u nti ng for
50% mar ket shar e. As t h e t ypi cal char act eristi cs of b ei ng t he hi g h-t ec h
industr y, t h e lar ge ent r y b arri er, so t he compa n y do es not face comp etitio n
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
fr o m d om esti c comp a ni es, just fr o m fo rei gn r ivals.
Table 8 - Market share of PVD and competitiors
Services
Market
share
Competitors
50%
SeaDrill, Transocean, Maersk Drilling , Vantage
Energy Services
50%
Schlumberger, Halliburton, Weatherford,
Goerservices, ILO, etc
80%
Schlumberger, Halliburton
Oil spill response service
90%
VSP and some individual suppliers
Check and renewal, and maintenance of
OCTG, tools and equipment for drilling
70%
ICO Asia Pacific, South Sea Inspection, Vina
Offshore, Vietubes,etc
Providing labor for drilling
90%
Bayong services, Accent Logistic,
Alpha services, etc
Karota gas measuring (Mud logging)
80%
PVEP, Cuulong JOC, Thang Long JOC,
Vietgazprom, Dai hung PVEP, etc…
Rig providing
Drilling rig service (except for the service
of cementing and reservoir stimulation)
Cementing and reservoir stimulation
service
Source: PVD, PSI collected
FINANCIAL PROJECTION
Assumptions about revenue, cost of good sold
Because the revenue of PV DRILLING mainly comes from the renting activities of
drilling rig, while the price of drilling rigs depends on the fluctuation of the world oil
prices, so we forecast that revenue of PV DRILLING based on the oil price and demand
for rigs in the region. Performance of PVD rigs were high over 97%, however, with the
pressure of competition from foreign companies, we believe that the focus on developing
of technical services and support, development of human resource in the country to reduce
costs since mid-2009 is quite right. This will be the first step for the company to improve
the working efficiency of their business in the future.
Based on five-year revenue plan in the period from 2011 - 2015, we make assumptions
about revenue, cost of good sold and profitability of PVD as follows:
Revenue: in quarter 3 / 2011, the rigs PV Drilling I, II, III, 11 and hired rigs all have the
lease contract till at least the end of quarter 3 / 2011 and all have the next contracts. By
the fourth quarter, in November of 2011, the rig PVD Drilling V (TAD) will be handed
over to go into operation and is expected to bring increased revenue in 2012 and didn’t
bring in revenue in 2011. Revenue in 2011 is projected to increase only slightly more than
8,745 billion, due to the rent for self lifting rigs is expected to decline compared to 2010
under the strong competition in the market of Southeast Asia. Average price for the lease
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of the rigs I, II, III and the hired rigs of PVD is about $ 120,000 / day.
Financial revenue: PV Drilling focused mainly on core business activities, negligible
short-term financial investment, mainly are cash deposits and bonds. Financial cost based
on the short and long-term loan projected annually on the balance sheet.
Cost of goods sold: the ratio of cost / revenue averaged at 78% - 85%.
Cost of corporate governance: although in late 2011, PVD will have 1 more TAD rig, due
to the corporate strategy of taking advantage of domestic resources, reducing costs for
foreign partners, so the cost of management is expected to maintain at an average of 5-6%
of total annual sales.
Fixed assets increased as the plan of fixed assets investment, depreciation form is straight
line.
Table 8 - Forecast of sales of drilling rigs in 2011 - 2015
Target (USD)
Revenue of PVD rig
PVD Drilling I
Tax (USD/day)
Operating time (days in year)
PVD Drilling II
Tax (USD/day)
Operating time (days in year)
PVD Drilling III
Tax (USD/day)
Operating time (days in year)
PVD V (TAD)
Tax (USD/day)
Operating time (days in year)
Rate of PVD (%)
Revenue of hired rig
Total revenue of drilling service
2011F
126,000,000
42,000,000
120,000
350
42,000,000
120,000
350
42,000,000
120,000
350
205,000
62%
90,923,112
216,923,112
2012F
175,735,000
43,750,000
125,000
350
43,750,000
125,000
350
43,750,000
125,000
350
44,485,000
205,000
350
62%
44,379,138
220,114,138
2013F
175,735,000
43,750,000
125,000
350
43,750,000
125,000
350
43,750,000
125,000
350
44,485,000
205,000
350
62%
57,796,087
233,531,087
2014F
2015F
175,735,000
175,735,000
43,750,000
43,750,000
125,000
125,000
350
350
43,750,000
43,750,000
125,000
125,000
350
350
43,750,000
43,750,000
125,000
125,000
350
350
44,485,000
44,485,000
205,000
205,000
350
350
62%
62%
75,310,052
98,181,994
251,045,052
273,916,994
Source: PSI forecasted
Ta ble 9 - Result o f projected b usiness activit ies o f P VD in the coming ye ars
Target (triệu đồng)
Net Sale
Cost og good sold
Gross profit
Profit before tax
Profit after Tax
Net income of mother company
EPS
2011F
2012F
8,745,411
6,918,870
1,826,540
1,096,291
953,773
944,235
4,531
9,429,552
7,233,535
2,196,018
1,550,085
1,348,574
1,213,716
5,283
2013F
10,304,896
7,901,564
2,403,332
1,748,962
1,521,597
1,369,437
5,072
2014F
2015F
11,336,008
12,563,421
8,472,361
9,373,239
2,863,647
3,190,182
2,200,480
2,518,027
1,694,370
1,938,881
1,524,933
1,744,993
4,841
4,847
Source: PSI forecasted
VALUATIO N
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PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
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PVD is currently the only domestic company in the field of oil and gas drilling, so the
method of valuation by P / E and P / B does not provide objective results. Therefore, we
use two methods of valuation including: DCF, P / E compared to domestic and foreign,
and EV / EBITDA compared with other countries. These methods ensure the objectivity
and are the best pricing methods for valuation of PVD shares with companies engaged in
the same activities and the scale is similar to PVD which are being listed.
According to our assessment, the business of PVD proved better than most of the drilling
service companies operating in the world that have the same scale as PVD. Only some of
these companies specialize in drilling services which is the leaders all over the world such
as Transocean LTD, Seadrill Limited, ENSCO PLC,… is a profitable activity. While most
of the mid-cap companies having the capitalization of less than $ 1 billion as PVD all
operate at relativlely loss in the year 2009 - 2010. It is therefore possible that the fat that
PVD’s operation is very stable and profitable in two very difficult years of drilling service
industry which is 2009 - 2010 is the performance showing effective business, business
goodwill that PVD obtained from the priority of using the services of PVN and the oil and
gas contractors in Vietnam.
Our pricing is based on comparison with companies having similar scope in the world and
just choose the companies which are profitable in the year 2009 - 2010 for comparison to
ensure there is no much difference when most companies having negative EPS and the
ratio EV / EBITDA is too high. The results of pricing and comparison below is to ensure
objectivity and caution in the valuation of stocks and demonstrate the attractiveness of
PVD compared with companies operating in the same area all over the world.
Price according to the valuation of PVD is at around 45,600 VND / share.
Ta ble 10 - Fo recast by DCF
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Source: PSI forecasted
Ta ble 11 - Co mp arison with similarly o pera ting compa nies
Source: Reuters, PSI forecasted
Table 12 - Va luatio n accordin g to the EV /
EBITDA in 2 010
Tab le 13 - Valua tion acco rd ing to the EV /
EBITDA in 2 01 1
Source: PSI forecasted
Source: PSI forecasted
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Table 14 - Valu ation a ccording to the P E in
201 0
Tab le 15 - Va luatio n accord ing to the PE in
20 11
Source: PSI forecasted
Source: PSI forecasted
Tab le 1 6 - Gen eral valua tion
Source: PSI forecasted
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APPENDIX
Unit: billion dong
Appendix 1: Forecast of the business result
Source: PSI forecasted
Appendix 2: Projected of the balance sheet
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Source: PSI forecasted
Appendix 3: Projected the cash flow statement
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Source: PSI forecasted
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PETROVIETNAM SE CURIT IE S IN CORP ORATE D
DISCLAIMERS
This report has been made by Research department – Petrovietnam Securities Joint Stock Company, The
information contained in this report is collected from reliable resources and has been carefully evaluated
However, PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy,
truthfulness and completeness of the information provided as well as losses can occur when using this
report. All information and opinions in this report may be changed without notice. This report is published
with the purpose of providing information and did not imply of recommending readers to buy, sell or hold
securities.
Readers should note: PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated may have co-operation activities with objects
mentioned in the report and may have conflicts of interest with investors.
This report is under the copyright of PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated. Any act of printing, copying,
modifying the content without the permission of PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated is considered
violation of law.
PETROVIETNA M SEC URI TIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY
Resea rch Dep a rtm en t
Directo r: Ph am Th ai Binh - b inhp t@psi.vn
Research Analy st: Nguy en M inh Hanh – hanh nm@psi.vn
Hồ Th ị Th anh Hoàn – hoanhtt@psi.vn
Ma rket & M acr o- econ omi c
Resea rch
Ngô Hong Đuc
d ucn h@p si. vn
www.psi.vn | resea rch@psi.vn
S ect or/Compa ny a naly sis
Ng uyen Minh Ha nh
han hn m@ psi. vn
Ng uyen Anh Tua n
tuan na1@p si.v n
PETROVIETNAM S E CURIT IES IN CORP OR ATED
Le Th anh Tung
tun glt@p si.v n
Doan Thi Va n Anh
a nh dt v1@psi.v n
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H o Thi Th anh Hoan
h oan htt@p si. vn
25