Market Potentials for 10 GbE in
Metro, and Wide Area Networks
Nan Chen
Director, Architecture Lab
Santa Clara, California
Magic 10 Gbps Data Rate
System capacity (Mbps)
6
10 6
10 Gbps, 32λ
λ
10 Gbps, 16λ
λ
10 Gbps, 8λ
λ
10 Gbps, 4λ
λ
10 Gbps, 2λ
5
10
Important Threshold!
4
10
1.7Gb/s
3
1
OC-48
Gbit Ethernet
10 Gb/s Ethernet
OC-48c
OC-12c
Fast
Ethernet
135Mb/s
102
101
OC-192c
I/O rates
=
Optical
Wavelength
Capacity
565Mb/s
10
2
> 1 Tbps
OC-3c
Ethernet
Transport Capacity
LAN Standards
Internet Backbone
T3
T1
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
Unification is logical and inevitable!
1
DWDM 10 Gbps Deployment In North America
Edmonton
Saskatoon
Vancouver
Seattle
Calgary
Regina
Spokane
Portland
Winnipeg
Sweetgrass
Thunder Bay
Bell Canada
Sudbury
Helena
Ottawa Montreal
Billings
Boise
Syracuse
Minneapolis
Milwaukee
Toronto
Albany
Rochester
Buffalo
Detroit
Chicago
Sacramento
Cleveland
Indianapolis
San Francisco
Stockton
Denver
Kansas City
Las Vegas
Joplin
Colorado Springs
DC
Cincinnati
San Jose
Richmond
St.
Louis
Norfolk
Santa Fe
Raleigh
Tulsa
Phoenix
Albuquerque
Charlotte
Nashville
Oklahoma City
Birmingham
El Paso
Fairfax
Jackson
Fort Worth
Dallas
Baton
Rouge
Austin
San Antonio
Atlanta
Tallahassee
Jacksonville
Orlando
Tampa
Houston
Miami
• > 48% of DWDM Network Deployment
• > 36% of the Internet Backbone In North America
...10 Gbps Deployment In Europe and China
PP
ar
ar
isis
UTA
UTA
• 7 of Last 9 Pan-European Builds, and
• All China Optical Transport from now on...
3
Global Data Communications Market, 1996-2002
Other
18%
ISP
10%
Carrier
10%
Other
10%
ISP
19%
Carrier
17%
Enterprise
62% 1996
Market Size - $32B
MAN& WAN spending - $12B
Enterprise
54%
2000 Market Size - $65B
MAN & WAN spending - $30B
While Local area market increases 19%/year,
Metro and Wide area market increase 38%/year.
Enterprise market is $49 billion in Year 2002;
MAN & WAN market is $58 billion in Year 2002.
Source RHK, STARTRAX, NOV 98
4
Total All Operator Spending Forecast on
SONET Systems
2500
($M)
2000
OC-3
1500
OC-12
1000
OC-48
OC-192
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
While all other speeds holding still,
10 Gigabit system increases 31% a year on average.
Source RHK, STARTRAX, NOV 98
5
Nortel Networks’ Global 10 Gbps Projections
Year 10 Gbps Ports
1990 - 1998
76,922
1999
82,285
2000
1,120,000
2001
1,467,200
2002
1,922,000
Nortel alone will ship 2,000,000 10 Gigabit ports in Year 2002
based upon 31% year to year growth from 2000 to 2002
6
TeraPop Scale Requirements
520
10 Tb/s
4.6 Tb/s
SuperPOP
Cross Section BW
480
440
1 Tb/s
400
920 Gb/s
360
Bandwidth
320
280
37 Gb/s
240
10 Gb/s
200
OC192
7.4 Gb/s
Port Count
183 Gb/s
100 Gb/s
160
2.2 Gb/s
1 Gb/s
OC48
Switch/Router
link rates
120
80
OC12
40
OC3
Q1
Q2
1997
0
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
1998
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1999
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2000
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2001
7
10 Gigabit Ethernet
- for Dark Fiber, Lit Fiber & Dark λ
HQ Video
10 GE
DWDM
10GE λ
Dark λ
Dark Fiber
10 GE
PBX
Lit Fiber
SONET
Universal Optical
Interface
Using Ethernet as the ubiquitous link layer
protocol for all networks
Using Ethernet as next generation DS0
8
“Show Me the Power!”
• It’s magic time to unify the local, metro and wide area
networks, and 10 Gbps Ethernet is a logical candidate
• By defining a SONET compatible 10 Gbps Ethernet, this
committee serves right for the Ethernet community
9
“Show Me the Money!”
• It’s magic time to unify the local, metro and wide area
networks, and 10 Gbps Ethernet is a logical candidate
• By defining a SONET compatible 10 Gbps Ethernet, this
committee serves right for the Ethernet community
• Number of 10 Gbps ports is exploding over the next 3
years. 2 millions ports will be shipped by Nortel
Networks alone in Year 2002
• And we ALL will make LOTS of money out of it!
10