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facts in the real world, decided on the balance of probabilities4 quantum of
damage depends on the evaluation of probabilities in a parallel universe in
which no breach of duty occurred.
That general rule does however need some qualifications. First, it is
sometimes difficult >as Stuart-Smith LJ put itC10 to tell where the question of
causation ends and quantification begins. That is indeed the heart of the
problem if you try to introduce Floss of a chanceG into personal injury cases.
The second qualification is that the court will not treat an insubstantial or
speculative chance as capable of evaluation11. The third qualification is
that if the probability to be evaluated depends solely on what the claimant
himself would have done, or on what the defendant himself would have
done, as a matter of free choice, that question is to be decided on the
balance of probabilities.12 That is logical, at any rate in a case where the
adviserJs defence is that the client, even if correctly advised about the risk or
disadvantage, would have decided to proceed with the transaction,
because that defence goes to liability rather than to quantum. In one
case13 alleging solicitorJs negligence in failing to advise purchasers about a
right of way the defence was that the clients >who were property
developersC would have gone ahead anyway M as they were said to have
done on six separate occasions in the past. We do not know how the case
ended as it is reported on an issue as to implied waiver of privilege in
respect of the files on the other six purchases.
Allied Maples was concerned with a complex business deal under
which the purchaser, an Asda subsidiary, wished to acquire a FcherrypickedG portfolio of 48 retail premises for S26m but was told by the vendor
that four of them would have to be acquired indirectly, by the purchase of
one of the vendorJs subsidiaries >after some unwanted premises had been
hived offC. This alteration in the plan raised the risk of liability on tenantJs
covenants in respect of premises which were not part of the deal, and the
purchaserJs solicitors failed to give adequate advice about this. So there
were hypothetical questions as to what the purchaser, if correctly advised,
would have done. First, it might simply have pulled out >the judge thought
10
Footnote 2 at p1609 >because of the overlap, the Court of Appeal was critical of the
decision to have a split trialC
11
Footnote 9 at p212 >Lord ReidC
12
Sykes v Midland 0ank Executor 8 Trustee Co Ltd X1971Z 1 [\ 1134 0olitho v City and
Hackney HA >199AB AC CDC, C4GH IA defendant cannot escape liability that the damage
would have occurred in any event because he would have committed some other breach of
duty thereafterJ
13
Lillicrap v Kalder 8 Son X1993Z 1 WLR 94, 994 cf McWilliams v Sir William Arrol 8 Co
Ltd X1992Z 1 WLR 295, the case of the steel erector who would not have worn a safety belt
if provided
3
th$s 'ery +nl$.ely/0 1econd5 $t 6$7ht ha'e ne7ot$ated a red+ced pr$ce :also
+nl$.ely5 ;eca+se the s$<e o= the r$s. >as then +n?+ant$=$a;le@ $t had s$nce
co6e ho6e to roost $n a ;$7 >ay5 hence the l$t$7at$on/0 Ah$rd5 the
p+rchaser 6$7ht ha'e s+ccess=+lly ne7ot$ated a l$6$ted ta$lorB6ade co'enant
=or $nde6n$ty :the C+d7e tho+7ht th$s pro;a;le ;+t d$d not ?+ant$=y the
chance/0 Ahe chance o= the p+rchaser ;e$n7 happy to proceed >$tho+t any
rene7ot$at$on >as e'$dently re7arded as nonBeD$stent0 Ahe Co+rt o= Fppeal
recast so6e o= the C+d7eGs declarat$ons and s+;Cect to that 6od$=$cat$on
d$rected that the $ss+e o= ?+ant+6 :$ncl+d$n7 the e'al+at$on o= the chance o=
s+ccess=+l rene7ot$at$on/ sho+ld 7o to tr$al0
1o =ar H ha'e ;een loo.$n7 at cla$6ants >ho ha'e $rretr$e'a;ly
s+==ered the loss o= a chance o= o;ta$n$n7 an econo6$c ;ene=$t :=or $nstance
Irs J$tchen >ho thro+7h her sol$c$torGs ne7l$7ence lost a cla$6 =or da6a7es
=or her h+s;andGs death/ or >ho ha'e $rretr$e'a;ly lost a chance o=
a'o$d$n7 econo6$c detr$6ent :=or $nstance the yo+n7 KFL p$lot >ho =a$led5
;eca+se o= h$s sol$c$torGs ne7l$7ence5 to ;ar h$s enta$led $nterest +nder a
=a6$ly tr+st and then d$ed5 st$ll a ;achelor5 on act$'e ser'$ce/0M! No> H >ant
to loo. at the ;orderl$ne :>h$ch $s so6et$6es ?+$te el+s$'e/ ;et>een
pro=ess$onal =a+lt >h$ch 7$'es r$se to an $66ed$ate ca+se o= act$on and that
>h$ch 6erely prod+ces a r$s. o= =+t+re loss O the chance o= a loss $n the
second part o= 6y t$tle0
H= a pro=ess$onal ad'$ser :>hether a con'eyanc$n7 sol$c$tor or a
=$nanc$al ad'$ser or a property 'al+er/ does a ;ad Co; =or h$s cl$ent the
o==$c$o+s ;ystander 6$7ht say to the cl$ent5 PQe has let yo+ do>n ;+t yo+
are not act+ally o+t o= poc.et at the 6o6ent@ >a$t and see >hat happens
;e=ore yo+ th$n. o= 7o$n7 to la>R0 Sr $= he >ere ;ell$7erent as >ell as
o==$c$o+s he 6$7ht say5 PQe has let yo+ do>n and sold yo+ a de=ect$'e
pac.a7e o= ser'$ces@ yo+ are >orse o==@ threaten h$6 >$th a >r$t at onceR0
Ahe la>Gs response re=lects ;oth o= these contrast$n7 att$t+des0 Iost
o= the reported cases $n th$s area are concerned >$th $ss+es o= l$6$tat$on o=
act$ons5 and $t $s there=ore appropr$ate to 6a.e a short deto+r $nto the top$c
o= conc+rrent l$a;$l$ty0 There the cla$6ant has contracted =or pro=ess$onal
ser'$ces he has conc+rrent re6ed$es $n contract and tort =or any ;reach o=
pro=ess$onal d+ty0 Ahat >as =$nally settled ;eyond do+;t ;y the dec$s$on o=
the Qo+se o= Uords $n !"#$"%&'# ) *"%%"++ ,-#$./0+"& 1+$MV5 appro'$n7 the
>ellB.no>n dec$s$on o= Sl$'er W $n *.$20#$ 30#4 5%6&+ 7'8 1+$ ) !"++ ,+699&
M!
:++"% ) 7;6%/; <$0=& 50+;0= > 7' XMYVZ[ Ch \]^ :at p \Y^ _pCohn W appl$ed 7;0?2.#
) !./4& ;+t sho+ld ha'e loo.ed at the ;alance o= pro;a;$l$t$es5 as d$senta$l$n7 >o+ld ha'e
;een the cl$entGs =ree cho$ce: see <22."$ *0?2"& at pMaM\/
MV
XMYYV[ \ FC M!V
!
! #$%&'( which' in the words of Lord Goff17 45roke the mould.; The
contractual lia5ility does not depend on proof of loss 5ut may yield only
nominal damages' and will prima facie 5ecome statute-5arred after siB
years. The concurrent lia5ility in tort avoids' Lord Goff said1D'
4...the startling possi5ility that a client who has had the 5enefit of
gratuitous advice from his solicitor may in this respect 5e 5etter off than a
client who has paid a fee.;
So often the focus will 5e on tortious lia5ility in negligence' for which loss is
of course essential. In )*+,-$. /012+*-3*'4 the plurality of the High Court of
Australia put it in these termsJ
4The answer to the Kuestion when a cause of action for negligence
causing economic loss accrues may reKuire consideration of the
precise interest infringed 5y the negligent act or omission . . . With
economic loss' as with other forms of damage' there has to 5e some
actual damage. Prospective loss is not enough.
When a plaintiff is induced 5y a misrepresentation to enter into an
agreement which is' or proves to 5e' to his or her disadvantage' the
plaintiff sustains a detriment in a general sense on entry into the
agreement. That is 5ecause the agreement su5jects the plaintiff to
o5ligations and lia5ilities which eBceed the value or worth of the
rights and 5enefits which it confers upon the plaintiff. Out' as will
appear shortly' detriment in this general sense has not universally
5een eKuated with the legal concept of Ploss or damageQ. And that is
just as well. In many instances the disadvantageous character or
effect of the agreement cannot 5e ascertained until some future date
when its impact upon events as they unfold 5ecomes known or
apparent and' 5y then' the relevant limitation period may have
eBpired. To compel a plaintiff to institute proceedings 5efore the
eBistence of his or her loss is ascertained or ascertaina5le would 5e
unjust. Moreover' it would increase the possi5ility that the courts
would 5e forced to estimate damages on the 5asis of likelihood or
pro5a5ility instead of assessing damages 5y reference to esta5lished
events. In such a situation' there would 5e an ever-present risk of
1S
T1U7UV Ch WDX
At p1UYZ at pp1U1-1U2 Lord Goff surveyed Commonwealth authority on concurrent
lia5ility
1D
At p1D!
1U
\1UU2] 17! CLR !1X' !27 per Mason CJ and `awson' Gaudron and McHugh JJ
17
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Spirerose v Transport for London U;VV!W M R:Q MX!X
Porter v Secretary of State for Transport UM!!YW L?ZQ Y!L
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negotiation taken place/ it would have produced a result and that
such a result would/ in money terms/ be the same as that which would
be reached in a hypothetical negotiation. It would not be correct to
assess the percentage chance that an agreement would have been
reached/ thus entitling the claimant to a percentage of the full
damages. This is because the chance depends not on the acts of a
third party when the percentage approach would apply but depends
on the acts of the defendant himself where it is >all or nothing?
depending on whether or not the claimant establishes on a balance
of probabilities that a negotiation would have been successful:
compare !""#$%&'()"$*&+,-.)&/"0&1&2#33-4%*&5&2#33-4%*&A1BB5D 1
WFG 1H02. The claimant in such a case may therefore fail to
establish causation. In contrast/ the assessment of damages by
reference to negotiation (**.3$* the success of such a negotiation
and assumes/ often contrary to the facts/ that there are willing parties
on each side.?
Jow I want to come back to the questions of whether/ how and to
what extent loss of a chance (of a better outcome) or a chance of loss (by a
bad outcome) have a function in personal injury cases. The leading cases
are 6-7*-489(the case/ which I have already mentioned/ of the boy disabled
by avascular necrosis after a delay in diagnosis of a broken femur)/
:#"*;$,8< (the case of the infant whose blindness may have been caused by
the administration of excessive oxygen)/ =(#,0;#"%8> (the claimants who
might have inhaled asbestos fibres at two or more different workplaces) and
+,$??&1&20-778@A&&&I shall concentrate on +,$??&1&20-77/ which reviews the
earlier cases and contains the fullest discussion.
The facts were that in Jovember 1BBP Mr Gregg (then aged P3)
went to see his GP/ Ur Scott/ about a lump under his arm. The doctor
reassured him and did not refer him to hospital for a biopsy. Jine months
later/ after he had moved house/ Mr Gregg went to his new GP. We was
referred to hospital and in Jovember 1BB5 cancer was diagnosed. It did
not respond to normal therapy and was eventually treated with high dose
chemotherapy which involved harvesting stem cells. Mr Gregg was
discharged in September 1BBH but suffered a relapse in 1BBX.
Jevertheless he survived. We sued Ur Scott and gave evidence at the trial
of the action in 2001. It was conceded that the doctor was in breach of
duty and that this had delayed diagnosis and treatment of the cancer by
3P
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#ord (icholls distinguished39 two categories of case in the field of
clinical negligence8
9... depending on whether a patient<s condition at the time of the
negligence does or does not give rise to significant medical
uncertainty as to what the outcome would have been in the absence
of negligence. The Hotson case was in one category. There was no
significant uncertainty about what would have happened to Btephen
Hotson<s leg if determined on the usual probability basis.D
#ord (icholls put Mr Fregg<s case in the other category and so did not
regard it as necessary to depart from Hotson in order to allow the appeal
on the basis that Mr Fregg had lost a chance of a longer life. This
distinction is Guestionable and #ord (icholls himself did, later in his
opinion,40 accept that the difference between the two categories was one of
degree.
#ord Hoffmann reviewed the authorities both in Kngland and
overseas. He saw no sufficient reason to depart from the Knglish
authorities841
9The rule which the House is asked to adopt is the very rule which it
reMected in &ils)er,s case. Net &ils)er,s case was expressly
approved by the House in .air0)ild,s case. Hotson,s case too would
have to be overruled. Furthermore the House would be dismantling
all the Gualifications and restrictions with which it so recently hedged
the .air0)ild exception. There seem to me to be no new arguments
or change of circumstances which could Mustify such a radical
departure from precedent.D
#ord Hoffmann reMected various suggested control mechanisms similar to
those which in his view 9disfigure the law of liability for psychiatric inMuryD.
Perhaps the most interesting part of his opinion is the passage in which
(after acknowledging, as #ady Hale did, Helen Reece<s scholarly article) he
differed from #ord (icholls as to two distinguishable categories842
39
paras 35 ffV the Guotation is from para 3W
paras 49-50
41
para W5
42
para 79
40
12
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Lord (ope+ the other dissenter+ agreed with Lord 4icholls but would
ha9e based his decision primarily on the narrower ground that the <=>s
negligence had allowed the tumour to grow before it was treated+ and that
that amounted to actual physical damage and so was a @hooAB"C on which
to hang the claim for his lost years.
The opinion of Lord =hillips Fwho was perhaps drawing on
eGperience gained while chairing the HIJ inquiryL went most fully into the
facts+ and in particular the statistical e9idence. (e was critical both of the
quality of the e9idence itself+ and of the use that had been made of it+"M
including the figures of "NO and N5O adopted by both sides in the agreed
statement of facts. Q find these criticisms powerful.
Lady (ale agreed with Lord 4icholls to the limited eGtent of
regarding the case as less predetermined than Hotson."R Ihe saw it as a
new case but+ liAe Lord (offmann+ she reSected the appellant>s arguments
based on policy. They were outweighed by other considerationsT first+
common sense would almost always suggest that delay in diagnosis and
treatment must ha9e contributed to an unfa9ourable outcome+ but FsecondL
it would often be impossible to establish quantifiable damage. Third+
personal inSury is different from economic loss. Uourth+ the appellant>s
argument+ taAen to its logical conclusion+ was no less than
@... that personal inSury law should transform itself. Qt should ne9er
be about outcomes but only about chances. Qt seems to me that this
is the real problem in this case. (ow can the two li9e togetherV50B
That is+ Q am the first to acAnowledge+ an inadequate summary of fi9e
learned and closelyXreasoned opinions which together run to NNC
paragraphs in the law report. They all call for close study. Hut Q would
suggest three general conclusions to be drawn from this 9ery interesting and
difficult case.
Uirst+ it demonstrates yet again the need for lawyers and Sudges to be
competent+ if they cannot be eGpert+ in the uses and abuses of statistics. Qn
the field of criminal law there has rightly been concern o9er the lacA of
training in handling Y4Z e9idence+ and about paediatricians gi9ing eGpert
e9idence Fparticularly in cot death casesL going beyond their proper field of
"C
Iee =rof. [ane Itapleton+ CauseXinXUact and the Icope of Liability for Consequences
FN00]L 11R L^R ]MM
"M
paras 1"C ff
"R
paras N11 ff
50
para NNN
1"
e$pert(se*"! ,(-.res can -(2e a co4pletely 7alse (ll.s(on o7 prec(s(on and
rel(a9(l(ty* ,or (nstance the 7(nd(n- (n !"#$"% o7 a ;"< chance o7 a2o(d(nnecros(s= (7 the (n>.ry had 9een treated pro4ptly= ?as 9ased on the tr(al
>.d-e spl(tt(n- the d(77erence 9et?een the e2(dence o7 t?o e$perts= ne(ther
o7 ?ho4 he 7o.nd part(c.larly sat(s7actory* @he need 7or co4petence (n
handl(n- stat(st(cs (s (4portant ?hether or not the not(on o7 loss o7 a chance
(s to play a lar-er part (n personal (n>.ry cases*
@he second po(nt to note (s that o7 the 7(2e la? lords= only Aord
Bo774ann= as C read the case= .nco4pro4(s(n-ly re>ected that tendency*
Aord Ph(ll(ps stated"; that the co4pl(cat(ons o7 the case had pers.aded h(4
that (t ?as not a s.(ta9le 2eh(cle 7or de2elop(n- the la?* Aady Bale sa(d"E
that the ar-.4ent F?(ll not do= at least on the 7acts o7 th(s caseG* Hr
Ire-- has s.r2(2ed 7or lon-er than any pla.s(9le stat(st(cal a2era-e= and
tho.-h he had had a terr(9le t(4e= the only (ss.e on appeal ?as h(s cla(4 (n
respect o7 ?hat he ?o.ld ha2e earned d.r(n- ?hat he e$pected= ?hen the
?r(t ?as (ss.ed= to 9e h(s Flost yearsG*
J.t Kth(rd and 7(nallyL the adopt(on (n personal (n>.ry cases o7 Floss o7
a chanceG as the 9as(s 7or l(a9(l(ty= rather than 7or co4p.t(n- M.ant.4=
?o.ld (ndeed 9e a 7.nda4ental de2elop4ent (n the co44on la?* @he
9orderl(ne o7 personal (n>.ry (s so4et(4es de9atea9le= 9oth as to psych(atr(c
tro.9les and as to nonN(n>.r(o.s 9od(ly chan-es s.ch as ple.ral plaM.es"O*
J.t the concept o7 act.al phys(cal (n>.ry= ca.sed 9y the de7endantPs
ne-l(-ence= has al?ays 9een essent(al* A(a9(l(ty 7or personal (n>.ry does
d(77er (n 4any ?ays 7ro4 l(a9(l(ty 7or p.re econo4(c loss= ?h(ch has (ts o?n
control 4echan(s4s*"" Q.ch a 4a>or chan-e (n personal (n>.ry la? ?o.ld
ha2e -ra2e (4pl(cat(ons 7or (ns.rers and 7or the Nat(onal Bealth Qer2(ce*"S
C a4 (ncl(ned to a-ree ?(th Aord Bo774ann that s.ch a chan-e sho.ld 9e le7t
to Parl(a4ent* J.t there (s pro9a9ly e2en less chance o7 that than o7 an
e2en 4ore rad(cal chan-e to a stat.tory sche4e o7 nonN7a.lt co4pensat(on
7or all cases o7 acc(dental personal (n>.ry*
Cn clos(n- 4ay C lea2e yo. ?(th a con.ndr.4 a9o.t a lottery* Ct (s
so4et(4es sa(d K?ron-ly as C ha2e tr(ed to de4onstrateL that H(ss Chapl(n
?as (n the pos(t(on o7 so4eone ?(th a lottery t(cUet* J.t (4a-(ne a 4onthly
"!
@here (s a 2ery e$tens(2e l(terat.re on th(s top(c* V -ood start(n- po(nt (s the Aa?
Co44(ss(onPs recent Cons.ltat(on Paper no*!WX @he Vd4(ssa9(l(ty o7 Y$pert Y2(dence (n
Cr(4(nal Proceed(n-s (n Yn-land and Zales
";
para !WX
"E
para ;XX
"O
'"#()*++ , -(*./01+ 2 3%$4+1#/%5 -" 6#7 [;XX\] VC ;\!
""
Qee Aady Bale at para ;;X
"S
Qee Aord Bo774ann at para WX
!"
lottery in which a million numbered tickets are regularly sold through a
network of a thousand street-corner outlets within a large city. Mrs Lucky,
a pensioner, has a regular order with a particular ticket-seller, Mr
Nostrodamus, for the same numbered ticket each month ? say, 555,555. If
Mr Nostrodamus carelessly sells that ticket to another punter, and it is not
the winning number, Mrs Lucky loses nothing. But what if 555,555 turns
out Con a completely random drawD to be the winnerE Can Mrs Lucky sue
for damages equivalent to the first priIeE Can she say that the winning
number, though unknown, did not depend on human choice and was
always Jin the starsKE Or can Mr Nostrodamus, invoking LeibniI and
chaos theory, say that if Mrs Lucky had duly got her favourite number, that
would have been a different possible world in which a different outcome
must be supposedE I believe that something of this sort Cof which my fiction
is a simplified versionD did actually happen in Australia, but as it never came
to court the answer also lies, unknown, in another possible world.
16