DEMAND –SIDE & SUPPLY –SIDE POLICIES Shift in AD curve A change in any of the components of AD(C,I,G,X or M) will change AD, i.e shift the AD curve . For eg., an increase in consumption increases aggregate demand from AD0 to AD1 and leads to increases real output (y1) and a higher price level. (P1) The four main factors affecting AD are expectations, international issues, fiscal and monetary policies. EXPECTATIONS: Expectations are perhaps the most powerful overriding force in changes in aggregate demand. The main expectations-based variables are; a)Inflationary expectations: Inflationary expectations C AD C /S AD and vice versa. b) Wealth & Income expectations: Expected Income/wealth and vice-versa c) Profit & Revenue expectations: Profit & Revenue expectations I AD and vice versa 1 d) Policy Expectations: A favorable policy of government like an expectation of increase in interest rates will affect expenditure pattern and thus can decrease AD & vice –versa INTERNATIONAL ISSUES The three basic factors affecting an economy’s AD due to international variables are exchange rate, trading partners’ income, relative prices of trade partners Exchange rate: exchange rate X &M AD X AD & vice-versa Trading Partners Income: Trade partners’ Y Relative Prices: Trade partners’ price level X &M AD DEMAND SIDE POLICIES The two remaining influences on AD have been put here, Under demand side policies in order that their connection to political intentions and business cycle may be made clearer. Fiscal and monetary policies conducted by government and central bank respectively, have a major impact on AD and business cycle. MONETARY POLICY Monetary policy is in the hands of central bank and involves adjusting interest rates(r). Tight/contractionary monetary policy, here an increase in interest rates(r) has a twofold effects;1) the opportunity cost of consumption (which is the interest forgone) rises; and 2) the cost of servicing loan (the interest payments) increases. The compound effect will be that savings(S) increases and borrowing decreases. Both lead to a fall in two major components of AD in the economy: Investment (I) and Consumption (C). Conversely loose/expansionary monetary policy of lowering interest rates will have a stimulatory effect on AD. 2 I: business cycle &Demand management. When real GDP increases beyond the long run trend of potential GDP (t0 in the business cycle diagram) there are negative influences on several of the main macro objectives, such as rising inflation and possibly a trade deficit. The govt. can try to countermand this by deflationary policies; lowering Govt. spending and increasing various taxes, while the central bank can increase the interest rates. An economy in recession will warrant opposite demand management; expansionary policies. When the economy is operating below potential GDP and moving into slump, around t1 in above fig, govt. can lower taxes and /or increase Govt. Spending .The central bank can implement loose monetary policy by lowering interest rates. Both policies help to induce firms and households to increase investments and consumption, resulting in an increase of AD. SHORT RUN VS LONG RUN 3 The figure below shows the long run effect of expansionary demand management- increasing govt. spending and/or lowering interest rates- with the economy initially at full employment level of output, point A. An increase in AD will increase output in the short run, but also make factors scarce and decrease real wages for workers. As factor prices are bid up by both firms and workers, in the long run the short run AS will shift to the left back to the original LRAS curve but at higher price level. Interest rate as a tool of monetary policy Real interest rate: = nominal interest rate - inflation rate Interest rates are in fact the key tool in monetary policy and managed by the central bank. Here are a number of functions of central bank, whereof three are central to the monetary policy dealt with here 1. To implement monetary policy through goals set by government, involving setting interest rates and the supply of money 2. To be the lender of the last resort i.e. seeing to it that commercial banks’ need for cash is met. This is done at an interest rate known as discount rate which is a key in setting market interest rate. 3. To regulate commercial bank lending, an example of which is setting minimum levels of cash which commercial banks must keep on hand, so called minimum reserve requirements. When interest rates are high, the tendency of people is to control their spending and as much as possible stay away from borrowing money. This 4 in turn slows down the movement of money in society. So one strategy the government employs is to lower down the interest rates, to attract people to borrow money and spend them on projects or businesses. When the economy is in danger of overheating (when growth is too fast, threatening a rise in inflation), the government increases interest rates to make access to excess money more expensive and arrest spending. Exchange rate policies: Monetary policy can intentionally affect a country’s exchange rate and thus the domestic economy. If the central bank raises interest rates, foreign firms, financial institutions, investors/speculators will see an increased rate of return if they buy their currency. This will increase the demand for the currency leading to appreciation and vice-versa. FISCAL POLICY Government can influence Ad in the economy by using taxes (T) and/or government spending (G). An increase in income tax lowers households’ disposable income which in turn lowers consumption and AD. Increased expenditure taxes, e.g. VAT, have the same effect. Since the govt. has the power to adjust govt. spending- which is a component of AD – this will have a direct impact on total expenditure in the economy. A boost in govt. spending will lead to an increase in AD & vice versa. Govt. budget The govt. budget is a fiscal policy instrument and political intention comprising govt. spending for a fiscal year. When receipts are higher than spending then there is a budget surplus. When spending exceeds receipts there is budget deficit. The sum of deficits minus surpluses over time equals the national debt. The portion of national debt which is owed to foreign banks/govt. is foreign debt. Automatic stabilizers 5 Changes in government purchases, taxes and transfer payments can have an impact on equilibrium aggregate demand. When a government deliberately changes its spending or taxation policies in order to influence aggregate demand, we call that "fiscal policy." But there is another, more automatic way that spending and taxation can influence the economy. Some kinds of taxes rise more than proportionately when income increases. A progressive income tax is an example of this. "progressive" means that the tax rate is higher on higher incomes. Thus, when income in general increases, more people are in the higher tax brackets, and so the average tax rate is higher. Some kinds of transfer payments and government purchases rise when income drops. Unemployment compensation and income supplements for poor people are examples, as are purchases of services for the poor. When income in general drops, there are more poor people eligible for these transfers and services, so spending on them increases. These taxes, transfers, and purchases are automatic stabilizers of the economy. Discretionary Fiscal policy Discretionary Fiscal policy is the deliberate manipulation of government purchases, taxation, and transfer payments to promote macroeconomic goals, such as full employment, price stability and economic growth. Shifts in AS/Supply Side Policy Shifting SRAS curve The SRAS curve in the AS-AD model will shift when production cost for firms change. Three specific short run influences are: 1. Price of labour: An increase in wage rates will increase cost which mean shift of SRAS to left 2. Price of inputs: If pr of input decreases then curve will shift right. 6 3. Taxation & Legislation: If taxes decrease then supply will increase and legislation are favorable then supply increase. Increase & Decrease in AS Shifting the LRAS Curve A number of other influences will affect SRAS, mainly improved technology, increases labour capital, improvements in production processes and general other efficiency gains. However, these are more long-run influences since the introduction of new technology, production methods and improvements in the labour force are incremental (bit by bit). LRAS represents long run potential output – will be affected by changes in the quality and /or quantity of factors of production. 7 Supply side policies Supply-side economic policies are mainly micro-economic policies designed to improve the supply-side potential of an economy, make markets and industries operate more efficiently and thereby contribute to a faster rate of growth of real national output Most governments now accept that an improved supply-side performance is the key to achieving sustained economic growth without a rise in inflation. But supply-side reform on its own is not enough to achieve this growth. There must also be a high enough level of aggregate demand so that the productive capacity of an economy is actually brought into play. Supply-side policies in product markets are designed to increase competition and efficiency. If the productivity of an industry improves, then it will be able to produce more with a given amount of resources, shifting the LRAS curve to the right. The following will lead to increase in LRAS. Privatisation Deregulation of Markets Toughening up of Competition Policy A commitment to free international trade Measures to encourage small business start-ups / entrepreneurship Capital investment and innovation: Trade Union Reforms Increased Spending on Education and Training Income Tax Reforms and the Incentive to Work Advantages & Disadvantages of demand side policies Advantages: By using demand side policies it is possible to influence the level of economic activity and therefore output, unemployment, inflation and the trade balance. It helps to achieve macro- economic goals. Automatic stabilizers help even out economic cycles and create stability and 8 predictability in the economy. Discretionary fiscal policy allows govt. to steer the economy in line with economic goals and economic welfare. Disadvantages: 1. Inflation Inflation is the leading disadvantage of demand-side economics. The demand-side perspective argues that the market economy, left to its own devices, will not ensure sufficient adequate demand, which means that society will not utilize its full production capacity. 2. Budget Deficits During a recession or other economic slowdown, output declines as a result of reduced activity. Higher government spending to compensate for the decline in aggregate demand is generally financed by borrowing, which increases government deficits and raises the national debt. 3. Policy Lags The problem is the lag between recognition of the need for government action and the actual implementation of appropriate policy measures. Often, the policy-making process itself is responsible for the delay in the adoption and implementation of policy measures. Further, there is an additional lag between the policy itself and the effects resulting from it. Often, many months may elapse between a change in government economic policy and the policy's effect on the economy. Advantages & Disadvantages of supply- side policies It is possible to influence the level of economic activity and therefore output, unemployment, inflation and the trade balance. The advantages 1. Supply-side policies can help reduce inflationary pressure in the long term because of efficiency and productivity gains in the product and labour markets. 9 2. They can also help create real jobs and sustainable growth through their positive effect on labour productivity and competitiveness. Increases in competitiveness will also help improve the balance of payments. 3. Finally, supply-side policy is less likely to create conflicts between the main objectives of stable prices, sustainable growth, full employment and a balance of payments. The disadvantages 1. However, supply-side policy can take a long time to work its way through the economy. For example, improving the quality of human capital, through education and training, is unlikely to yield quick results. The benefits of deregulation can only be seen after new firms have entered the market, and this may also take a long time. 2. In addition, supply-side policy is very costly to implement. For example, the provision of education and training is highly labour intensive and extremely costly, certainly in comparison with changes in interest rates. 3. Furthermore, some specific types of supply-side policy may be strongly resisted as they may reduce the power of various interest groups. For example, in product markets, profits may suffer as a result of competition policy, and in labour markets the interests of trade unions may be threatened by labour market reforms. 4. Finally, there is the issue of equity. Many supply-side measures have a negative effect on the distribution of income, at least in the short-term. For example, lower taxes rates, reduced union power, and privatization have all contributed to a widening of the gap between rich and poor. 10