Spring 1999 254 Uris Hall Tuesdays 2:30 – 5:30 GOVERNMENT 707: INTRODUCTION TO GAME THEORY FOR POLITICAL SCIENCE Christopher Way Office: McGraw Hall B42 Office Hours: Wednesday 1:30 – 3:30 Email: crw12@cornell.edu Phone: 255-8920 Course Description: This seminar provides an introduction to game theory for political scientists. Game theory is a way of studying strategic interaction – situations in which individuals’ decisions are interrelated and those decisions jointly determine outcomes. Game theory provides a deductive method for rigorously deriving conclusions from clearly stated assumptions. In this class, basic concepts of game theory are explained and applied to topics in comparative politics, international relations, and American politics. Topics covered include: foundations of rational choice approaches, basic utility theory, normal form games and Nash equilibria, extensive form games, backwards induction, subgame perfection, beliefs and Bayesian updating, limited information games, repeated games, and additional topics as time allows. The class requires no background in formal theory and assumes a very low comfort level with mathematics. The target audience for this class is the game theory neophyte; if you have taken previous classes on game theory you will almost certainly find this class redundant and largely a waste of your time. The course has three main goals. The first is to provide students with a basic introduction to rational choice methods, and game theory in particular, and their application in political science. Game theoretic models are increasingly common in all areas of political science. Consequently all political scientists should be familiar with the basic logic of game theoretic explanation. Students who see game theory as a complement to their primary focus rather than a method they intend to pursue in their future research will receive an appropriate survey in this seminar. The second goal is to provide the necessary background for students who wish to use rational choice methods in their own research. For this purpose, this course is a preparation for taking classes such as Economics 751 and 760. In addition, this class provides a useful start to using game theory as a tool in your own research. Students will 2 learn not only about game theoretic concepts, but also how to solve and create simple models. The paper projects, in particular, can potentially lay the ground-work either for dissertation topics or publishable papers on topics unrelated to your dissertation. Finally, the class provides students with an introduction to simple versions of the types of models most commonly used in political science. It is important for students to learn not only the core concepts of game theory itself, but to see how those concepts can be used to model politics and to provide insights into important substantive problems. Texts: Two texts are required for this course: Game Theory for Political Scientists by James Morrow and Game Theory and Economic Modelling by David M. Kreps are available for purchase at the Cornell Campus Store. In addition, I have ordered copies of Game Theory with Economic Applications by H. Scott Bierman and Luis Fernandez. This text is recommended; it covers the same material as Morrow, but it is often helpful to see two different presentations of the same concepts when learning game theory. Papers will supplement the texts and provide examples of applications. These papers are available for you to copy or read in Olin Library 405. The list given below is not complete and is not final, especially for the later portions of the class; readings will be added and deleted to reflect student interests and the pace of the class. Consequently, the reading list given below is not complete and is subject to change as the course proceeds. The reading load may appear light compared to the norm in Government Department graduate classes. This appearance, however, is very misleading. Most of these papers are very slow reading, and you will have to read some of them several times to understand the arguments. In general, you are expected to “work through” the papers in a careful fashion so that you understand not just the intuition of the argument, but the logic of model and the modeling decisions as well. Requirements: Students will complete several problem sets (probably seven), write two short (7-8 page) papers, and take an in-class final exam. In the papers, you will develop simple, original models applying the tools learned in class to topics of your own choosing. The problem sets will account for 20% of the course grade. The remaining 80% will be divvied up equally between the two papers and final (for those who like precision, each of these three assignments is worth 26.6 % of the grade). 3 SEMESTER SCHEDULE TOPIC 1: INTRODUCTION, WHY RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY, THEORY? AND WHY STUDY GAME Texts: Morrow, chapter 1; Kreps, chapter 1. Book chapter: Jon Elster, “Introduction” to Rational Choice, 1986 (New York University Press), pp. 1 – 33. Paper: John Ferejohn and Debra Satz, "Rational Choice and Social Theory." The Journal of Philosophy (1994), 71-87. Book chapter: Duncan Snidal, “The Game Theory of International Politics.” In Kenneth Oye (ed.), Cooperation under Anarchy. Book chapter: William H. Riker. “Political Science and Rational Choice.” In James Alt and Kenneth Shepsle (eds.), Perspectives on Positive Political Economy. Paper: Milton Friedman, “The Methodology of Positive Economics,” in Essays in Positive Economics. Book chapter: Jeffrey Friedman, “Economic Approaches to Politics.” In Jeffrey Friedman (ed.), The Rational Choice Controversy , 1996 (Yale University Press), pp. 1 – 24. TOPIC 2: UTILITY THEORY AND DECISION THEORY Text: Morrow, chapter 2. Paper: David W. Rohde, “Risk-Bearing and Progressive Ambition: The Case of Members of the United States House of Representatives,” American Journal of Political Science (1979), vol. 23, no.1. Book chapter: Fritz W. Scharpf, Games Real Actors Play: Actor-Centered Institutionalism in Policy Research (1997, Westview Press), Introduction (pages 1 – 19). Book chapters: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (1981, Yale University Press), chapters 2-3 (pp. 19 – 92). 4 TOPIC 3: SPECIFYING A NORMAL FORM GAME AND NASH EQUILIBRIA Text: Morrow, chapters 3 and 4; Kreps, chapter 3. Supplemental Text: Bierman and Fernandez, chapter 1. (If you are interested in seeing more applications, skim chapters 2 and 3 on Oligopoly and Strategic Trade Policy). Paper: Barbara Geddes. “A Game Theoretic Model of Reform in Latin American Democracies.” American Political Science Review (June 1991). Paper: Tanisha Fazal, “Rethinking the Japan-America Security Agreement: A Strategic Model of Alliance Burden Distribution,” manuscript, Stanford University (1998). Paper: Fritz W. Scharpf, Games Real Actors Play: Actor-Centered Institutionalism in Policy Research (1997, Westview Press), Chapter 4: “Actor Constellations” (pages 69-96). Paper: Joseph Grieco, “Realist Theory and the Problem of International Cooperation: Analysis with an Amended Prisoner’s Dilemma,” Journal of Politics (1988: 600-24). Paper: Duncan Snidal, “Relative Gains and the Pattern of International Cooperation,” American Political Science Review (Sept 1991: 701-726). TOPIC 4: SPECIFYING EXTENSIVE FORM GAMES, BACKWARDS INDUCTION, AND SUBGAME PERFECTION Text: Morrow, chapter 5, Kreps, chapter 4. Supplemental Text: Bierman and Fernandez, chapter 6. Paper: John Ferejohn and Charles Shipan, “Congressional Influence on Bureaucracy,” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, (1990). Paper: John Ferejohn and Charles Shipan, “Congressional Influence on Administrative Agencies: A Case Study of Telecommunications Policy,” in L. Dodd and B. Oppenheimer, eds, Congress Reconsidered (1989). Book chapters: Keith Krehbiel, Pivotal Politics, (1998, University of Chicago Press), Chapters 1 and 2 (pp. 3 – 50). Paper: Fritz W. Scharpf, Games Real Actors Play: Actor-Centered Institutionalism in Policy Research (1997, Westview Press), Chapter 7: “Decisions by Majority Vote” (pages 151-171). Paper. Kelly Chang. “The President Versus the Senate: Appointments in the American System of Separated Powers and the Federal Reserve.” Manuscript, University of Wisconsin-Madison (1998). 5 Paper: R. Michael Alvarez, Geoffrey Garrett, and Peter Lange. “Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance,” American Political Science Review (June 1991). Paper: William Roberts Clark and Mark Hallerberg. “Strategic Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Actors Under Full Capital Mobility,” APSA paper (1997). Paper: Torben Iversen, “Wage Bargaining, Central Bank Independence, and the Real Effects of Money,” International Organization (Summer 1998: 469-504). Paper: Susanne Lohmann, “Optimal Commitment in Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review (1992: 273-86). TOPIC 5: BELIEFS, BAYES’ THEOREM, AND GAMES WITH UNCERTAINTY Text: Morrow, chapter 6; Kreps chapter 5. Supplemental Text: Bierman and Fernandez, chapter 10. Paper: Randall Calvert. “The Value of Biased Information.” Journal of Politics (1985). Paper: Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market, chapter on transitions. TOPIC 6: GAMES OF LIMITED INFORMATION Text: Morrow, chapters 7 and 8. Supplemental Text: Bierman and Fernandez, chapters 15 and 16. Paper: James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization (1995). Paper: Kenneth Schultz, “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War.” Manuscript, Princeton University (1998). Book: Keith Krehbiel, Information and Legislative Organization (1991, University of Michigan Press). Paper: William Roberts Clark, “Agents and Structures: Two Views of Preferences, Two Views of Institutions,” International Studies Quarterly (1998), 42:245-270. Excerpts: James Fearon, Threats to Use Force, (Dissertation, University of California at Berkeley), selections. 6 TOPIC 7: REPEATED GAMES Text: Morrow, chapter 9. Supplemental Text: Bierman and Fernandez, chapter 9. Paper: Andrew Rutten, “Anarchy, Order, and the Law: Notes on the Post-Hobbesian View,” manuscript, Cornell University (1997). Paper: Barry Weingast, “The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law,” American Political Science Review (1997). Paper: James Morrow, “The Laws of War as an Institution.” Manuscript, Stanford University (1997). Paper: James Morrow, “The Institutional Features of the Prisoner of War Treaties.” Manuscript, Stanford University (1998). Paper: Paul Milgrom, Douglass C. North, and Barry R. Weingast. "The Role of Institutions in the Revival of Trade: The Law Merchant, Private Judges, and the Champagne Fairs." Economics and Politics (1990): 1-23. TOPIC 8: CONCLUSION, WHY STUDY GAME THEORY? REVISITED Text: Morrow, chapter 10; Kreps chapter 6.