MAcro Cue Card By Sally Dickson, Austin, TX., skdickson@yahoo.com Instructions for the Macro Cue Card by Sally Dickson I. Overview. The purpose of the Macro Cue Card is to help students answer Advanced Placement Free Response Questions correctly, not incorrectly. If students practice answering correctly, they are more likely to do so on the AP FRQ Exam. The Cue Card includes relevant models and concepts used on past Macro FRQ’s and included in the 2005 Course Description for AP Macroeconomics. II. Objectives. Students will use the Macro Cue Card to confirm correct use of models and concepts as they answer FRQ’s. They will practice writing correct FRQ’s. In the end, having used the Cue Card with some regularity, they will have memory of the Cue Card to which they can refer mentally during the AP FRQ Exam. Cue Cards are not permitted at AP testing. III. o o o o o o Materials and Resources. A copy of the “Macro Cue Card” for each student A copy of the “Alphabetical Meaning of Symbols” Past AP FRQ’s Go to the following website for FRQ’s and rubrics from 1999-2004. http://www.apcentral.collegeboard.com/members/article/1,3046,152-171-0-2084,00.html Practice FRQ’s from Advanced Placement Economics, 3rd Edition, by John S. Morton and Rae Jean Goodman, National Council on Economic Education, 2003. Go to www.ncee.net to order this book and the Teacher’s Guide of supplemental explanations, exercises, and tests FRQ’s written by Sally Dickson that are included with the Macro Cue Card Questions in college textbooks and study guides IV. Classroom time needed. o The Cue Card can be used for practice FRQ’s and for classroom FRQ exams up until two or three weeks before the course ends. At that point, they should have practiced writing correctly, so they should be ready to be weaned from their Cue Cards. o Students generally benefit if they do one practice and one exam per week. With large class loads or short class time, it could be reduced to once per large unit. V. Suggested Steps for Use. (Modify to fit your teaching style and the needs of your students.) 1. Give each student a copy of the “Cue Card” and “Meaning of Symbols” that includes those portions that they have studied so far. For example, if the class has studied “Scarcity, Choice, and Trade” and “Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium”, give them a Cue Card that includes only those topics. An alternate possibility is to give the entire Cue Card at once that has been laminated for use throughout the course. 2. After studying a broad topic such as “Aggregate Supply, Aggregate Demand, and Equilibrium”, two class days before the test, use about 15 minutes to model the process of answering an FRQ finding the needed information on the Cue Card with class input. 3. For homework that night, give each student a similar question to answer on his/her own using the Cue Card. Remind them to use and study the card to that they can find needed information on it during the FRQ test. Answers must be given with correctly labeled graphs, analysis using script, and written explanation, where appropriate. Alternatively, divide the class into small groups and assign a question for each group to answer. Give about 5 minutes at the end of class for them to discuss their question. That night they each answer their group question as homework, and at the first of class the group meets for about 5 minutes to agree on an answer. The teacher can roll dice to determine which group puts their response on the board (graph and analysis using script) and explains it to the class. The teacher says, “I see one (or more) mistakes. Does anyone see one?” Be sure that all labels and explanations are correct. Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 2 4. The next day in class, using about 10 minutes, go over the grading rubric for the homework and then have them grade someone else’s paper using the rubric. After grading, the two students should exchange comments with each other about mistakes. The teacher then briefly responds to misunderstandings and common errors and suggests that study groups share problems. No grade is taken. 5. On test day, the teacher allows students to use their Cue Cards to answer a similar, but different, FRQ question. Do not allow Cue Card use on the multiple-choice portion. Grades for FRQ’s and multiple-choice questions should be separate, just as they are on the AP Exam. 6. Create a rubric for grading the FRQ. Grading with a rubric is faster, more nearly fair, and more instructive for students. 7. When you return the graded FRQ’s, model the answer of the question using the Cue Card and the rubric. Make a transparency of the best student answer and read it to the class so that they know what an excellent student response looks like. This takes about 10 minutes. 8. Remind them that you expect everyone to make at least 90 on these FRQ’s, so they must come in after school for tutoring and to retake a similar question using the Cue Card if their grade is below 90. You could average the retake grade, replace the original grade, or count it as extra credit. VI. Economic Analysis, Easy as 1, 2, 3 A method for analyzing change used on the Cue Card that you will need to teach. (Assume one change at a time at first.) Price Supply1 1. Before change – Start analysis at Point “A” where P1 and Q1 meet. P2 B 2. Change – Kids like motor scooters A better than bicycles. (Notice the graph is P1 of Scooters, not Bicycles.) (Δ=change in) D2 o Is it a change in the price of the good/service or resource? Yes or No Demand1 (If “yes”, there is no shift.) Q1 Q2 Quantity o Does the change affect supply or Motor Scooters demand first? o Does supply or demand increase or Kids like electric scooters better than decrease? (shifts right) bicycles, so more (quantity) scooters are 3. After change – The price rises for bought (demanded) at every price, causing scooters until the quantity supplied and the demand curve to shift to the right, D2. demanded are equal again at Point “B” where P2 and Q2 meet. VII . Updating the Cue Card. o Since the College Board revises the Course Description for Macroeconomics each year at www.apcentral.collegeboard.com , teachers may need to update the Cue Card. o E-mail Sally Dickson, the author, at skdickson@yahoo.com or call 512-383-8289 if you would like to get the Word document. You are welcome to use the Cue Card with your classes, share it with other teachers, and change it to meet your needs. o If you make changes that might benefit others or use it in a manner different from that described above that worked, please share your ideas! VIII. Bibliography. Economics: Microeconomics, Macroeconomics Course Description for 2005-2006, The College Board Advanced Placement Program, 2004. Mankiw, N. Gregory. Principles of Economics, 3/e, Thomson South-western, 2004. McConnell, Campbell R. and Brue, Stanley L. Economics, Principles, Problems, and Policies, 16/e, McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2005. Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 3 Morton, John S. and Goodman, Rae Jean. Advanced Placement Economics, 3/e, National Council on Economic Education, 2003. Pride, Peggy. Presentation at the annual conference of the National Council for Economic Education, Little Rock, Arkansas, 2004. IX. FRQ Index by Topic (Textbooks and study guides have questions on all topics.) Past AP FRQ’s by College Board and ETS Topic www.apcentral.collegeboard.com Unit I—Basics Scarcity, choice, opportunity cost Production possibilities curve Comparative advantage, specialization, and exchange Demand, Supply, Market Equilibrium Macro issues: business cycle, unemployment, inflation, growth Unit II—Measurement of Economic Performance National Income Accounts, Circular Flow, GDP, Real vs. nominal GDP Inflation, price indices, nominal vs. real, costs of inflation Unemployment, measurement, types, natural rate of unemployment Unit III—National Income & Price Determination Aggregate Demand, determinants, multiplier and crowding-out effects Aggregate Supply, short-run and long-run analysis, sticky vs. flexible wages and prices, determinants Macro equilibrium, real output and price level, short and long run, actual vs. full employment output, economic fluctuations Unit IV—Financial Sector Money, banking, financial markets Definition of financial assets: money, stocks, bonds Time value of money (present and future value) Measures of money supply, banks and creation of money Money market, money supply, money demand Loanable funds market Central bank monetary policy to control money supply, quantity theory of money, real vs. nominal interest rates Unit V—Inflation, Unemployment, Stabilization Policies Fiscal and Monetary Policies—demand-side Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 8-12% 2005B #2, 2001A #1 2003A #3 12-16% 10-15% 2005A #2, 2005B #3, 2004A #1, 2003A #1, 2001A #1 2004A #1, 2001A #1 2005A #1, 2005B #1, 2004A #1, 2003A #1, 2002A #1, 2001A #1 15-20% 2004A #3 2004A #3, 2001A #3 2005A #1, 2005B #1 2005A #2, 2005B #3, 2004A #2 2005A #1, 2005B #1, 2004A #1, 2004A #2 20-30% 2005B #3, 2005B #1, 2003A #1, 2002A #1, 4 effects, supply-side effects, policy mix, government debt and deficits Inflation and Unemployment, types of inflation, Phillips curve (LR vs. SR), role of expectations Unit VI—Economic Growth and Productivity Investment in human and physical capital, research and development, technological progress, growth policy Unit VII—Open Economy: International Trade and Finance Balance of payments (balance of trade, current acct., capital acct.) Foreign exchange market, demand for and supply of foreign exchange, exchange rate determination, currency appreciation and value Net exports and capital flows Links to financial and goods markets 2001A#1 2005A #3, 2005B, #1, 2003A #2 5-10% 2005A #2, 2005B #2, 2002A, #2, 2001A #! 10-15% 2005A #2, 2005B #3, 2004A #2, 2002A #3, 2001A #2 2004A #2, 2002A #3, 2001A #2 AP FRQ’s usually connect several concepts into one question. IF YOU COPY AND PASTE THE CUE CARD, YOU MAY NEED TO GO TO “PASTE SPECIAL”, SWITCH TO “WORD DOCUMENT” INSTEAD OF “HTML”, AND PASTE ONE PAGE AT A TIME. Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 5 Alphabetical Meaning of Symbols Symbol $US %∆PL %U ∆ ↑ → or ⇒ ↓ £ ¥ € AD AE AS C Ca D D$ DB DD DI DIg DLF DM or MD Dt E or ER FE FEX G Meaning US Dollar in foreign exchange Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Delta = Change in Increases Causes Decreases British Pound Sterling Japanese Yen Euro Dollar Aggregate Demand Aggregate Expenditures Aggregate Supply Consumption Consumption after taxes Demand Demand for $’s in FEX Demand for Bonds Demand Deposits Disposable Income Demand for Investment Demand for Loanable Funds Demand for Money Transaction Demand for Money Excess Reserves of Banks Full Employment Quantity Foreign Exchange Markets Government Spending Sally Dickson, Austin, TX Symbol GDPN GDPR i ID Ig In LRAS LRPC M MPC MPS P PC PL Ppc Ppf Q QF r R or RR S S S$ SB SLF SM or MS T U X Xn Y YF Y* Meaning Nominal Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Nominal Interest Rates Demand for Investment Gross Investment Net Investment (Ig – depreciation) Long Run Aggregate Supply Long Run Phillips Curve Imports Marginal Propensity to Consume Marginal Propensity to Save Price Phillips Curve Price Level Production Possibilities Curve Production Possibilities Frontier Quantity Quantity at Full Employment Real Interest Rates Required Reserves of Banks Savings Supply Supply of $’s in FEX Supply of Bonds Supply of Loanable Funds Supply of Money Taxes Unemployment Exports Net Exports (X-M) Income/Output/Employment/GDPR GDPR at Full Employment GDPR potential at Full Employment 6 Macro Free Response Question CUE CARD--2005 Analysis of AS and AD PART I: Fig. 1 To Start: (1) Look at unemployment first. (2) Look at inflation rate if situation starts at full employment PL LRAS AS B A GDPR Unemployment Inflation GDP Growth Good Worry Bad 5.5% or less 6% to 8% 8.5% or more 1% to 4% 5% to 8% 9% or more 2.5% to 5+% 1% to 2% .5% or less Δ AS = f(Δ per unit costs) Δ Resource prices or quantities (inputs) land – rent labor – wages capital – interest entrepreneurship profits Δ Productivity, technology Δ Legal/ institutional business taxes subsidies regulations AD1 P2 P1 Examples for USA AD2 Q1 QF Q2 Q Economic Analysis 1. A--Before change—Initial equilibrium at P1, Q1 2. Δ--Change: C↑ → AD↑ (example) 3. B = After change—New equilibrium at P2, Q2 Δ AD =f(Δ spending) ΔC--Δ Consumer spending wealth, taxes. expectations, indebtedness ΔIg –Δ Investment spend. interest rates, profit expecations bus. taxes, technology ΔG—Δ Government spend. purchases ΔXn--Δ Net Export spend. n’tl income abroad exchange rates Did the change shift both AD and AS at once? If both curves shift at once, then there is change on one axis but change on the other axis is indeterminant because magnitudes of change are unknown. Business taxes, interest rates, exchange rates, and wages can affect both. PART II: FISCAL POLICY--by CONGRESS If problem is Unemloyment ↑ Then Congress uses . . . . Expansionary Tools Taxes=T Decrease Subsidies Increase Spending=G Increase Inflation ↑ Contractionary Increase Decrease Decrease Fig. 3 Money Market Domestic Currency i SM i2 Fig. 6 Investment Demand r r2 B A r1 i1 A Money QM DM2 DM1 Q Fiscal Policy effects may be weakened by . . . Crowding Out Effect – If G↑ deficit spending↑→ DLF↑→r↑→Ig may slow, especially at full employment since profit expectations may not be rising →AD↑ less. Net Export Effect – If G↑ deficit spending→DLF↑→ domestic r↑ → foreign and domestic investors seek higher return on US bonds and other assets→in FEX D$↑, S$↓→Foreign Price per $↑ →$ appreciates→ exportsUS↓(expensive) and importsUS↑(cheaper) →Xn↓ some→AD↑ less. Sally Dickson, Austin, TX Fig. 4 Loanable Funds r SLF r2 B B Q Q1 Q2 GDPR(Output/Employ) Ex.: Congress Uses Expansionary Fiscal Policy Personal T↓→ DI↑xMPC → Ca↑ x mult→ AD↑ (Fig. 2) →GDPR↑, PL↑ Business T↓→profits↑→Ig↑ x mult.→AD↑ and Bus. T↓→per unit costs↓→AS↑→GDPR↑, PL indeterminant G↑ x mult.→AD↑→GDPR↑, PL↑ (Fig.2) If Govt. deficit spending↑→DM↑→i↑ and govt. borrow↑ by selling new bonds↑→ SB↑→PB↓ (Fig. 5) and DLF↑→r↑ (Fig. 4) →Ig↓ (Fig. 6), esp. at full-employment (Crowd-out) If GDPN↑→Dt↑→Dm↑→i↑ (Fig. 3) Interest rates: i-expected inflation rate = r Spending Multiplier = 1/MPS or ΔGDPR/ΔAE Fig. 2 – AS/AD PL LRAS AD2 AS AD1 P2 B P1 A FE = YF = LRAS = QF=YP A DLF2 r1 DLF1 Q1 Q2 Q Loanable Funds Fig. 5 Bond Market P SB1 SB2 A P1 B P2 DB Q1 Q2 Q New Treasury Bonds DI Q2 Q1 Q Investment If PB↑, the r↓. If the economy is in a recession, fiscal policy can cause the DI to shift right due to improved expectations, so crowding out is unlikely. 7 PART III: MONETARY POLICY – by FEDERAL RESERVE’S FOMC If Problem is Unemployment ↑ Inflation ↑ Then the Fed . . . ↓ ↓ Expansionary Contractionary Tools OMO Buys bonds Sells bonds Reserve Decrease Increase Requirement Discount % Decrease Increase Ex. of Linkages: Expansionary Monetary Policy If the Fed buys bonds from the public . . . Demand deposits↑→Excess Reserves (E)↑→ Loans↑ x money multiplier → Sm↑ → i (Fig. 7) →Ig↑ (Fig. 8) b/c more investment projects are profitable at lower interest rate→x mult.→AD↑→GDPR↑, PL↑,U↓ (Fig. 9) Money Multiplier = 1/Reserve Requirement Fig. 7 Money Market (Domestic) i SM1 SM2 A i1 i2 B i2 Fig. 8 Investment Demand i A i1 B Q1 Q2 Q LRAS AS B A P1 ID DM Money Fig. 9 AS / AD PL P2 Investment Q1 Q2 Q AD2 AD1 Q 1 Q2 Real GDP Q Monetary Policy effects may be strengthened by . . . Net Export Effect – If the Fed buys bonds→ SM↑→i↓→foreign and domestic investors seek higher returns on foreign bonds and other foreign assets→D$↓, S$↑→Foreign Price per $↓ →$ depreciates→ exportsUS↑ (cheaper) and importsUS↓ (more expensive) →Xn↑→AD↑ some more. PART IV: INTERNATIONAL TRADE. (Compare USA to ROW—Rest Of the World.) Examples compare US $ to Japanese ¥ Output/Employment – If GDPUSA↑→incomeUSA↑ →M↑→Xn↓→D¥↓, S$↑→¥P/$↓→$ depreciates Price Level – If PLUSA↑→M↑ (foreign goods cheaper), X↓ (our goods expensive to ROW)→ Xn↓→D$↓,S$↑→¥ P/$↓→$ depreciates Interest Rate – Ex: rUSA↑→Jap, & US investors buy US bonds, assets↑→D$↑,S$↓→¥P/$↑→$ appreciate (Fig.10)→XUS↓,→MUS↑→Xn↓→AD↓→GDPR↓,PL↓ Trade deficit or surplus – Ex: If Xn↓, then a trade deficit gets worse or a trade surplus gets better. Fig. 10 US real interest rates increase ¥P/$ S$2 $P/¥ P2 B S$1 S¥1 P1 A P2 B S¥2 D$2 D¥1 A P1 D$1 US Dollars Q ¥P/$↑→$ appreciates D¥2 Japanese Yen Q $P/¥↓→¥ depreciates PART V: LONG RUN. If Investment (Ig)↑, resources↑, productivity↑, research & development↑, or technology↑, it causes Economic Growth. (The opposite causes Economic Decline) In the long run all input prices change in response to price level changes. In the short run, at least one input price (often nominal wages) has not changed in response to price level changes. LRPC at N’tl Rate of U, but not related to % inflation. (Fig. 13) Fig. 11 Ppc/Ppf Fig. 13 SR & LR Phillips Curves LRPC YF2 YF1 Capital Goods Economic Growth •B •C A YF1 YF2 Consumer Goods Sally Dickson, Austin, TX Fig. 12 LRAS (with AS/AD) PL LRAS1 LRAS2 Econ Growth AS2 AS1 C P2 A P1 AD2 AD1 YF1 YF2 Q GDPR (output/employ/income) %∆PL = Inflation Linkage: If interest rates↓ or if business T↓ →Ig↑ in short run (points A to B). If Ig ↑ > depreciation → growth in stock of capital → Ppc↑ (Fig. 11), LRAS↑ (Fig. 12). 6% •B 3% •C A 4% PC2 PC1 5% % Unemployment SR: A→B wages don’t respond yet to %∆PL↑, %U↓ LR: B→C wages↑ respond to %∆PL↑→%U↑ to LRPC 8 MACRO CUE CARD QUIZ 1. _____________________ Who conducts Fiscal Policy? 2. ____________________(1) What are the two tools of Fiscal Policy? ____________________(2) 3. ____________________ Does Fiscal Policy aim to shift AS, AD, or both? 4. ____________________ Inflationary problems require which type of Fiscal Policy? 5. ____________________ Unemployment and recessionary problems require which type of Fiscal Policy? 6. ____________________ If we have stagflation, where does AD cross AS? 7. ____________________ Does Fiscal Policy affect Demand or Supply of Loanable Funds? 8. ____________________ What happens to the Price of Bonds when Interest Rates increase? 9. ____________________ The effect on business borrowing that occurs when the federal government borrows is called what? 10. ___________________(1) Two reasons expansionary Fiscal Policy might cause interest rates to rise are what? ___________________ (2) 11. ___________________ Who conducts Monetary Policy? 12. ___________________(1) What are the three tools of Monetary Policy? ___________________(2) ___________________ (3) 13. ___________________ Does Monetary Policy mainly affect AS, AD, or both? 14. ___________________ If inflation is the problem, what type of Monetary Policy is needed? 15. ___________________ If unemployment and recession are the problems, what type of Monetary Policy is needed? 16. ___________________ Does Monetary Policy affect Demand or Supply of Money? 17. ___________________ Which group makes Monetary Policy decisions? 18. ___________________ What happens if Excess Reserves increase in the banking system? Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 9 19. ___________________ What happens to business investment if interest rates increase? 20. ________________ Why does this (#19) happen? 21. ___________________ Why does Aggregate Demand decrease in this situation? (#19-20) 22. ___________________ If real GDP in the US increases, how does this affect US imports? 23. ___________________ Why? (see #22) 24. ___________________ What happens to US imports from China if they experience inflation? 25. ___________________ Why? (see #24) 26. ___________________(1) 27. ___________________(2) If real interest rates in Europe rose relative to ours, what would happen to the (1) supply of US dollars and (2) demand for US dollars in the foreign exchange markets? 28. ___________________ Why do both curves shift? (see #26-27) 29. ___________________ Interpret this script into plain English: ¥P/$↑. 30. ___________________(1) What are two ways to show “economic growth” on graphs? 31. ___________________(2) 32. ___________________ If investment in real capital declines significantly in the short run, what will happen to the “stock of capital” in the long run? 33. ___________________ To what do the words “stock of capital” refer? 34. ___________________ Looking at the graph, how do we know that the long run Phillip’s Curve is not related to inflation? 35. ___________________ Is the short run Phillips curve related most to the short run Aggregate Supply curve or the Aggregate Demand Curve? 36. ___________________ Are points on the short run Phillips curve related most to short run AS or AD? 37. ___________________ Why might nominal wages not respond to a changing inflation rate in the short run? 38. ___________________ What is another name one might give to the 5% Unemployment of the Long Run Phillip’s Curve? Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 10 Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 11 Sally Dickson, Austin, TX 12