The Voter.com Battleground 2000 Poll
June 11-13, 2000
The Republican Strategic Analysis
By Ed Goeas
With the Republican and Democratic conventions just around the corner, the presidential
campaigns are gearing up, and voters beyond the hard-core party faithful are beginning to
tune in to this year’s presidential election. While admittedly it is still early in the process,
a broad number of voters are now developing impressions about the two Party’s
nominees. It would appear that these early impressions, negative towards Al Gore and
positive towards George W. Bush, have caused a widening of this year’s presidential
race. It has not been a good couple of months for the Democratic nominee. Al Gore
seemed to have found his stride in the Democratic primary campaign, but now his
campaign appears rudderless and Al Gore is increasingly looking like a candidate in
search of a candidacy. Not that the Gore campaign has not tried to make adjustments,
those of us who watch politics closely have witnessed the Gore campaign change its
campaign manager, change the city in which it runs its campaign headquarters, and, as of
last week, even change it’s campaign chairman. What the voters seem to be focusing on,
however, is Al Gore the candidate not the Al Gore campaign. That is where Al Gore’s
problems continue to worsen.
Some of these problems stem from the repetitive tinkering with re-inventing Al Gore’s
Image. By last count, the Gore campaign has tried to “re-invent” candidate Al Gore five
or six times! There’s been the loyal Al Gore, the liberal Democrat Al Gore, the Alphamale Al Gore, the attack-dog Al Gore, the happy Al Gore, and now there’s the “I brought
you this great economy” Al Gore. The message that the Gore candidacy seems to be
sending, and reinforcing, with voters is that Al Gore is an empty shell waiting to be
molded by the campaign and the voters may never know who he really is. With that
being the case, voters continue to develop more negative impressions about Al Gore in
large part because they are not in a mood to risk taking a chance with a presidential
candidate as they were in 1992.
Whereas the Gore campaign has been losing ground and stumbling, the Bush campaign
appears to be healthy and in full force. The Bush campaign is successfully piecing
together policy positions that increasingly tell the story of George W. Bush’s
compassionate conservatism and is reaching a broad spectrum of voters. In this most
recent Battleground survey, George W. Bush is over-performing Republican Party
identification with virtually every subgroup by fifteen percent (15%). (This stands in
stark contrast to Al Gore, who barely holds his base Democratic voters.) Whereas Bush
has systematically and successfully begun to portray his candidacy and vision for
America to the voters, Al Gore is still having a difficult time explaining who he is and
what he stands for; and this continues to cause him fundamental problems.
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Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
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Most importantly, George W. Bush appears to be comfortable with his candidacy. He
increasingly seems comfortable focusing on what he stands for rather than attacking his
opponent. Where Gore’s campaign style is often confrontational, Bush’s style
communicates consensus building and solutions. And that is why we see voters reacting
favorably to George W. Bush’s campaign style, they truly want a campaign about
something rather than against something.
The Current Political Environment
Voters continue to have a negative opinion about the direction in which the country
is headed. Currently, forty-two percent (42%) of voters feel the country is headed
in the right direction and forty-six percent (46%) say we are headed on the wrong
track. With the election less than five months away, these results show that even though
the economy is thriving, Al Gore and the Republicans in Congress may still have an uphill battle come this November. Voters may see a good economy, but they do not have
an impression that things are necessarily headed in the right direction. They are able to
determine that a healthy stock market does not necessarily mean we have a healthy
country or society. The opinion of voters in swing districts is lower at thirty-seven
percent right direction to fifty-four percent wrong track, and female voters have a more
negative opinion than men do. White women in particular have a negative impression
with thirty-eight percent saying the country is moving in the right direction and forty-nine
percent saying it is off on the wrong track. Among married women, negative opinion
rises to fifty-one percent wrong track, and seniors are amongst the most negative with
only thirty-four percent (34%) saying right direction and forty-eight percent (48%)
responding wrong track.
In this survey, the issues of restoring moral values and improving education both
receive sixteen percent (16%) of the response as being the two most important issues
for the next President to deal with. While the issue agenda remains rather diffuse,
values and education have been the two issues that have driven the issue matrix of this
year’s election since our January Poll. It shows that this election is not driven by the
economy; it is about the greater good of our society and of our society’s future. With the
stable economic environment reducing pocketbook concerns, people are now moving
their focus towards the impact of society on our nation’s children. The issue of having a
good education parallels with issues of respect, civility, and decency. These seem to be
the main concerns of voters.
The issue of restoring moral values continues as a top response in being the most
important issue for the next President to deal with and explains much of the
“Married Gap” the Democrats have to deal with. Voters continue to rank the issue of
restoring moral values as a top concern for them. This is not a fad response or a
politically correct response. Instead, it is a heartfelt opinion of many American voters.
Women at home under age 65 feel strongly about this issue as do white rural voters and
Reagan Democrats (20%). Voters who are married are more inclined to choose this issue
as being the most important, with white married men at twenty percent and white married
women at twenty-three percent. When children are put into the equation, we see an
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Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
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increase in those choosing restoring moral values, with white married men with children
at twenty-seven percent (27%) and white married women with children at twenty-five
percent (25%).
The issue of improving education has risen three percentage points since the March
poll to be of equal importance with the issue of restoring moral values. Education is
a key issue among younger voters, single voters, and minority voters. Younger voters
and working women are more concerned about this issue as well as singles at twenty-six
percent. Twenty percent (20%) of unmarried women choose this issue as well as a good
portion of minority voters. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Hispanics choose this issue
as well as twenty-eight percent of African Americans. Concern for education increases to
thirty-seven percent among African American men.
President Clinton’s job approval rating loses intensity and drops to fifty-six percent
(56%), yet his personal disapproval rating reaches an all time high of sixty-four
percent (64%) in June. The President’s job approval continues to be rather soft -- while
his job approval stands at fifty-six percent approve and forty-one percent disapprove, the
intensity of his job approval now stands at a net negative, with 29% strongly approve and
33% strongly disapprove. At the same time, the President’s personal approval ratings
have worsened to an all time high of twenty-nine percent approval and sixty-four percent
disapproval. More to the point, the intensity of Clinton’s personal approval rating has
now reached a point that those voters holding a strong view of the President now stand at
a three-to-one negative ratio. These high personal disapproval ratings only serve to
reinforce the fact that Bill Clinton appears to be less and less a major factor in this year’s
election. This devaluing of Bill Clinton in this year’s election is not a positive factor for
Al Gore. Gore has lived as Clinton’s shadow for eight years, and yet continues to carry
negative baggage from his association with Clinton while receiving little or no credit for
the positive accomplishments of the Clinton administration. Perhaps, this is why the
Gore campaign has continued to try too hard to “re-invent” candidate Al Gore.
Unmarried women approve of Clinton’s job performance at sixty-nine percent (69%), but
only fifty-three percent (53%) of married women have this opinion. Voters in small town
communities have more negative impressions of the President’s job performance, and
men are less positive with forty-six percent disapproving; this rises to fifty percent among
males over age 65.
The generic congressional ballot test has been hovering at parity for most of the
year with each party receiving approximately forty-one (41%) of the respondent’s
support. Today, the Democratic candidate has a two-point advantage over the
Republican candidate at 40% Republican to 42% Democrat. This is yet more
evidence of a potentially tough race for Republican Congressional candidates to move the
attention of the voters beyond the presidential race. Their future is tied to that of George
W. Bush; however, voters have not yet linked the two together.
The Tarrance Group, Inc.
Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
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Independent voters are split on the generic ballot, with thirty-one percent (31%)
supporting the Republican candidate and thirty-three percent (33%) supporting the
Democratic candidate. Republicans do receive a slight advantage in swing Congressional
Districts with forty-three (43%) supporting the Republican and thirty-seven percent
(37%) supporting the Democratic candidate. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Independents
are unsure of whom they would support. In May, the percentages among Independents
were thirty-five percent supporting the Republican candidate and thirty-one percent
supporting the Democratic candidate. While it is true the generic Republican has lost
some ground; it can be expected that those Independent voters will occasionally swing
back and forth throughout the campaign cycle.
The 2000 Presidential Race
There has been considerable movement in the Presidential ballot -- from a six-point
lead to a current twelve-point lead for Bush -- Bush 52% to only 40% Gore. This
comes on the heels of yet another attempt to “re-invent” candidate Al Gore. It is
important to note that Bush voters have more intensity with thirty-seven percent saying
they would “definitely” vote for Bush compared to only twenty-seven percent
“definitely” Gore voters – this is a ten-point variance on intensity. Bush’s support among
men has more than doubled since the May survey, going from a ten-point lead to a
current lead of twenty-three points. Support among women has dropped three percentage
points for Bush since the May survey. Women are now evenly split at 46% Bush to 45%
Gore. Among female subgroups, Bush receives his strongest support from women at
home with sixty percent as well as from white married women with fifty-eight percent.
Suburban white women also support Bush giving him fifty-four percent of their support
to Gore’s thirty-nine percent -- a fifteen-point advantage for Bush; and white women in
rural areas support Bush at 54% to Gore 37%.
Bush receives higher support levels among base Republican voters than Al Gore
receives from base Democratic voters. Ninety-three percent (93%) of Republicans
support Bush compared to only seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats supporting Al
Gore. This is yet another example of Bush having solidified his base, while Al Gore
continues to attempt to do so. Another positive for George W. Bush is that Independent
voters are currently giving him a fourteen-point lead with forty-seven percent supporting
Bush and thirty-three percent supporting Gore.
The poll shows Reagan Democrats continue to support Bush at high levels. Fiftyfour percent (54%) of Reagan Democrats support Bush, while only thirty-six percent
support Gore. This is an eighteen-point lead for Bush among this subgroup, and a fourpoint increase from the last poll conducted in May.
Gore is still not able to capture a majority of union voters. Currently, union voters
are still split with forty-seven percent (47%) supporting Bush and forty-six percent (46%)
supporting Gore. Non-union voters are giving Bush a fifteen-point advantage with fiftythree percent supporting him to only thirty-eight percent supporting Al Gore. This is a
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large problem for Al Gore because traditionally these voters have been base Democratic
voters, and Al Gore can’t seem to keep their attention in this election.
George W. Bush continues to perform well with Catholic voters -- fifty-three
percent (53%) Bush/forty-two percent (42%) Gore. White Catholic voters who are
currently supporting candidate Bush at fifty-eight percent drive Bush’s support among
Catholic voters. Gore is currently only receiving thirty-six percent of their support. This
is a twenty-two-point lead for Bush among this voting segment.
Overall, Hispanics still lean towards Al Gore (41% Bush/53% Gore), but Bush is
outperforming traditional Republican candidates. Gore continues to have a twelvepoint advantage among Hispanic voters. However, Bush continues to outperform
Republican Party identification by fourteen percentage points and the Republican generic
presidential ballot by eleven percentage points. Although we are beginning to deal with a
smaller sample size, we did take note that younger Hispanic voters support Gore in
higher percentages, with fifty-five percent supporting him to thirty-nine percent
supporting Bush. Yet, Hispanics over age 45 are evenly split in their support of the two
candidates, giving them forty-seven percent apiece. This is certainly something that we
will follow when we do surveys with larger Hispanic samples in the future.
George W. Bush has managed to increase his favorability rating by seven
percentage points since the May poll. At the same time, Gore has actually lost
ground in his favorability rating. Bush has gone from a fifty-six percent favorable to
thirty-five percent unfavorable rating in May to a current rating of sixty-three percent
(63%) favorable to twenty-eight percent (28%) unfavorable in June. This is a two to one
favorable to unfavorable ratio for George W. Bush. Rural voters are very positive of
George W. Bush with sixty-six percent favorable. Male voters highly favor him at sixtynine percent, with employed males at seventy-one percent. Married voters have high
favorable impressions of Bush, and dads have a seventy-four percent favorable
impression while moms have a sixty-three percent favorable impression of him. Hispanic
voters also maintain a positive impression of Bush with sixty-one percent.
Al Gore’s favorable rating has dropped three percentage points since the May poll, and
his unfavorable rating has risen two percentage points. Gore receives his highest support
from African American voters with eighty percent. Among Hispanic voters, fifty-seven
percent have a favorable impression of him while thirty-three percent have an
unfavorable impression. Fifty-three percent (53%) of women have a favorable
impression of Gore compared to forty-one percent of males. White working women also
have a favorable impression of him. Whereas Bush receives high favorability ratings
among married voters, Gore receives high ratings from singles, with fifty-eight percent
having a favorable impression of him. Gore has a problem among Independent voters in
that they are evenly split with forty-three percent saying they have a favorable impression
and forty-four percent an unfavorable impression.
The Tarrance Group, Inc.
Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
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In asking whether or not voters had seen, read or heard any information recently
regarding the two candidates, we learn that fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters have
seen, read or heard something about candidate George W. Bush, while another fiftyfive percent (55%) have seen, read or heard something about candidate Al Gore.
The interesting part to note is that when you ask the respondent if what they saw, read or
heard about the candidate would make them more or less likely to vote for him for
President, forty-eight percent of those who had heard information about Bush said it
would make them more likely to vote for him, compared to only thirty percent saying that
what they heard about Gore would make them more likely to vote for him. (This is while
the Democratic National Committee was running its issue advocacy ads in an attempt to
help Al Gore’s candidacy.)
A Look at Issues and Values
When read seven issues and asked whether they have more confidence in George W.
Bush or in Al Gore in handling each issue, respondents gave George W. Bush a
higher rating than Al Gore in six out of the seven issues. The issue of holding the line
on taxes has traditionally been a Republican issue, and voters seem to be answering with
the historical context in mind. Bush receives extremely high confidence ratings on this
issue with fifty-three percent (53%) of respondents having confidence in him to handle
the issue compared to only twenty-nine percent (29%) having confidence in Al Gore.
While Bush has been way out in front on this issue, Gore’s recent attempts to offer a tax
cut seem a little more like pandering. Men are more likely to choose Bush to handle this
issue at sixty-two percent while fifty-one percent of white women choose Bush. Fifty-six
percent (56%) of rural Americans have more confidence in Bush to handle taxes, while
Hispanics overall are at forty-six percent Bush to thirty-six percent Gore. In examining
Hispanic men, fifty-four percent of them have more confidence in Bush compared to only
thirty-eight percent having confidence in Al Gore. Yet, Hispanic women are split at
thirty-two percent Bush to thirty-four percent Gore.
Bush has a twelve-point lead on the crucial issue of keeping America prosperous;
an issue that is critical to any Presidential election. Americans hold their presidents
accountable on the issue of keeping our country prosperous in its economy and industry.
While the unprecedented economic prosperity would seem to be a positive factor for Al
Gore, his attempts to keep the administration at arms length have only served to keep him
from taking any of the credit. This poll shows forty-seven percent (47%) of respondents
having more confidence in George W. Bush to handle this issue, with only thirty-five
percent having more confidence in Al Gore. Overall, men have more confidence than
women in Bush’s ability to handle this issue by ten-percentage points (52% to 42%
respectively, with married men at 57%). White women at home under age 65 support
Bush on this issue with fifty-four percent; white married women support him in high
numbers; and white married women with children support him with fifty-eight percent.
Forty-one percent (41%) of Independents have more confidence in Bush to handle this
issue, while only thirty-two percent have more confidence in Gore. Union members have
more confidence in Bush, giving him a forty-eight percent support rating, with only
thirty-six percent supporting Al Gore.
The Tarrance Group, Inc.
Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
page 7
Gore’s support on the issue of keeping America prosperous is mainly driven by those in
large urban areas and minorities -- particularly minority women who give him sixty-three
percent support on this issue. African American voters give Gore confidence levels in
the seventieth percentiles, yet Hispanic voters are split with Hispanic men giving Gore a
forty-eight percent confidence rating and Hispanic females a forty-four percent
confidence rating.
George W. Bush has a ten-point lead on the issue of sharing your values, which is an
issue of particular importance to voters this year. This is shown in the fact that voters
have consistently chosen restoring moral values at the most important issue for both the
next President and Congress to work on. Fifty-five percent (55%) of male voters choose
Bush and thirty-one percent choose Gore on this issue, with white men under age 65 at
sixty-two percent Bush. Women are split with thirty-nine percent having more
confidence in Bush and forty-two percent saying Gore. White women support Bush in
high numbers as well as white married women with children at fifty-one percent.
Unmarried women support Gore with fifty-one percent, and mothers are supporting Gore
at forty-five percent; yet Bush does well among fathers receiving fifty-eight percent of
their support. White suburban women give Bush an eight-point advantage with forty-six
percent saying they have more confidence in Bush and thirty-eight percent saying they
have more confidence in Gore. Hispanic voters are split with forty-one percent saying
they have more confidence in Bush in sharing their values and forty-six percent saying
Gore.
On dealing with the gun issue, Bush enjoys a six-point lead, with forty-four percent
(44%) choosing Bush and thirty-eight percent (38%) choosing Gore. This is very
positive for George W. Bush. Bush receives strong support from rural voters and from
male voters on this issue, with males giving him fifty-two percent and giving Gore only
thirty-three percent. Opinions among female subgroups vary. Overall, women give Bush
thirty-seven percent of their support to forty-two percent Gore; yet, Bush receives high
support from women at home at fifty percent. Gore receives strong support from those
who live in large urban areas on this issue as well as from minority voters at fifty-nine
percent. Gun owners are very supportive of Bush to handle the issue with fifty-six
percent of them choosing him over Gore. Those who do not have a gun in their home
support Gore at forty-nine percent. When one examines the voters who are focused on the
anti-gun control stance, sixty-six percent of them support Bush. This can be compared to
only fifty-four percent of the pro-gun control voters supporting Gore. This shows that
anti-gun control voters are more intense in their support of Bush than pro-gun control
voters are of Al Gore.
On the traditionally Democratic issue of improving education, Bush receives a fourpoint advantage. This advantage on education shows that George W. Bush’s proactive
stance on the issue has penetrated the electorates’ minds. This is positive for not only the
Bush campaign, but also for other Republican candidates. Mothers are split on their
opinion with forty percent choosing Bush and forty-two percent choosing Gore. Support
for Bush rises to forty-nine percent among white married women with children. Among
white suburban women, Bush recieves forty-nine percent, and Bush does well with
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Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
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fathers, receiving a ten-point advantage (49% Bush to 39% Gore). There is a marriage
gap on this issue with married voters at fifty percent Bush to thirty-five percent Gore and
separated or divorced voters at fifty-three percent Gore to twenty-six percent Bush. Gore
also receives strong support among voters who reside in large urban areas. Independent
voters are split on this issue at thirty-nine percent Bush to thirty-seven percent Gore.
George W. Bush pulls even with Al Gore on handling the issue of strengthening
Social Security. Voters give Bush a forty-one percent (41%) confidence rating and
Gore a forty percent (40%) confidence rating. This is a drop of nine percentage
points for Al Gore since the March poll. This is a testament to Bush’s boldness in
taking the issue head on. Those in small towns are more likely to support Bush on this
issue whereas large urban and suburban voters support Gore. Males are more supportive
of Bush at forty-eight percent Bush to thirty-six percent Gore, and females are at thirtysix percent Bush to forty-three percent Gore. A majority of white women at home under
age 65 strongly support Bush on this issue. Those voters who are separated or divorced
support Gore at fifty-three percent, while married voters support Bush with forty-seven
percent. Fathers are highly supportive of Bush at forty-eight percent, and mothers are
more split with forty percent supporting Gore and thirty-seven percent supporting Bush.
Gore does extremely well among minority voters on this issue with seventy-three percent
of African Americans supporting him, and Hispanics are at fifty-four percent Gore to
thirty-five percent Bush.
Gore has dropped from having a fifteen-point advantage on improving health care
to a seven-point advantage. A seven-point deficit is not bad for a Republican candidate
on such a traditionally Democratic issue. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters say they
have more confidence in Bush to handle this issue while forty-six percent say they have
more confidence in Al Gore. Males have an even opinion on this issue, giving each
candidate forty-four percent. Among female voters, thirty-five percent have confidence
in Bush and forty-seven percent have confidence in Al Gore. Minority women have
more confidence in Al Gore at sixty-nine percent, and working women and unmarried
women are also more likely to trust Gore at fifty-two percent each. Bush receives high
support from white women at home under age 65 as well as from white men over age 65.
Married men support Bush at fifty-four percent. Hispanics give a stronger advantage to
Al Gore on this issue with fifty-five percent supporting Gore to only twenty-seven
percent supporting Bush.
George W. Bush has a twenty-five-point lead over Al Gore when voters are asked
who better represents the quality of strength. These are very positive ratings for any
presidential candidate. There appears to be a gender gap on this issue with sixty-three
percent of males stating Bush represents strength to only forty-eight percent of females
(this is mainly driven by employed women). Working women under age 45 support
Bush with forty-eight percent, and women at home support Bush with sixty-two percent.
White suburban women also strongly support Bush giving him fifty-six percent on this
quality. Hispanic voters are more positive towards Bush with forty-nine percent
choosing Bush to thirty-six percent choosing Gore. Gore’s support is largely driven by
minority men and women.
The Tarrance Group, Inc.
Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
page 9
In the March poll, Bush had a three-point advantage on the issue of trustworthiness.
This advantage has risen to a twelve-point advantage in the recent June poll. Fortyseven percent (47%) of voters say Bush represents the value of trustworthiness to only
thirty-five percent saying Gore. This is very positive for the Bush campaign. A majority
of fifty-five percent of men say Bush represents the value of trustworthiness; this number
rises to sixty-four percent among white married men. Other supporters of Bush on this
value are women at home, giving him fifty-two percent. Once again, we see Independent
voters having more confidence in Bush with forty-six percent choosing him to only
twenty-seven percent choosing Gore. Seniors give Bush a fifteen-point lead with fortynine percent saying Bush represents trustworthiness to only thirty-four percent Gore.
When voters are asked about who better represents the quality of “vision,” forty-six
percent (46%) say Bush and thirty-seven percent (37%) say Gore. This is a threepoint increase for Bush since the March survey. This shows that Bush has been able
to communicate his vision of compassionate conservatism to American voters. Among
women, there is a tighter spread of opinion with thirty-nine percent choosing Bush and
forty-one percent choosing Gore. Support among white women at home under age 65 is
high for Bush at fifty-four percent. Support among mothers is even at forty percent Bush
to forty percent Gore, yet support among white married women with children is at fiftysix percent Bush to only twenty-five percent Gore. Gore receives solid support levels
among minorities, receiving sixty percent of their support on this quality. He also
receives positive ratings among those who reside in large urban areas. Yet, Hispanic men
give Bush a ten-point advantage (fifty-one percent to forty-one percent).
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters feel Bush better represents the quality of “cares
about people like you,” while thirty-nine percent (39%) say Gore better represents
this quality. This is a four-point drop for Al Gore since the March survey. Bush does
well among rural and small town voters on this quality whereas Gore does better among
urban and suburban voters. Bush fares well among male voters at forty-eight percent
Bush to thirty-six percent Gore; this support rises to fifty-eight percent among retired
men. Seniors are also supportive of Bush on this quality with forty-eight percent
choosing him to only thirty-five percent choosing Gore. Women give Gore a six-point
advantage with thirty-six percent saying Bush to forty-two percent Gore. Minority
women strongly support Gore at seventy-one percent. Bush carries the support of white
married women at forty-eight percent. Independent voters are evenly split with thirtyfour percent choosing Bush and thirty-four percent choosing Gore. Hispanic voters give
Gore an eighteen-point advantage.
The one area where Gore has an advantage over George W. Bush is on representing
the quality of experience. Even though Bush has been a successful governor of a large
state, voters still seem to correlate experience with the federal level. This is unfortunate
given Bush’s proven record in Texas; yet, the issue of electing a governor president was
not a concern in 1992 and 1980. Males and females are split on this issue with forty-one
percent of males choosing Bush to thirty-six percent of females. Women at home under
age 45 and white married men give Bush forty-eight percent on this issue. Gore receives
support among suburban and large urban area voters as well as from minorities with
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Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
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minority men at sixty-six percent. Hispanics give Gore a fifty-one percent majority on
this quality. Independent voters give Gore a ten-point advantage at forty-five percent to
thirty-five percent Bush.
Guns and the electorate
The issue of gun control was examined in this survey. Two questions were asked of
voters, the first question had respondents choose which issue position best described their
own view of gun control. Twelve percent (12%) of respondents mentioned there should
be few or no restrictions on guns, thirty-one percent said the current laws were sufficient
and simply need to be enforced; and another twenty-six percent say there should be some
additional, enforceable restrictions on the purchase and storage of guns. Lastly, twentyeight percent say most guns should not be sold and if they are, they should be both
registered and licensed. A follow up question asked respondents if a candidate’s position
on guns differed from their own, would this particular difference alone determine their
vote on election day. Twenty-five percent (25%) of voters say it would be extremely or
very likely to affect their vote, twenty-seven percent said somewhat likely and forty-nine
percent said not likely.
In order to grasp the true effect of the gun issue on voters on Election Day, we
constructed a voter segmentation model to examine the responses to the above two
questions. The reasoning behind this modeling is that sometimes when asking peoples’
positions on single-issue items, the issue can get blurred. It can be blurred by the choice
of words used in the question language, or by the position of the question in the
questionnaire. Through years of experience, we have learned that if you construct a
segmentation model, then you are able to separate, with their intensity levels, the extreme
right, the right of center, the extreme left and the left of center voters. Through this
modeling, we can discern who the activists are, particularly the single-issue voters who
may determine their vote decision based on that one particular issue. The only way to
examine the impact of an issue is to review those voters who have an extreme view on
the issue, a polarized view.
Our modeling shows that twelve percent of voters are “focused anti-gun control” voters.
Another twelve percent are “focused pro-gun control” voters. The vast majority of voters
(76%) are not focused on this issue. The important fact to note is that the focused antigun control voters have more intensity than those who are focused on the stance of progun control. This can be seen in the fact that on the ballot test, of those who are focused
anti-gun control, there is a positive seventy-four percent gap between those who support
Bush (83%) and those who support Gore (9%). Yet, of those who are pro-gun control,
there is a negative forty-four percent gap between those who support Gore (68%) and
those who support Bush (23%). This shows that anti-gun control voters are supporting
Bush at much higher rates than the pro-gun control voters are supporting Al Gore; thus
the focused anti-gun control group is showing more intensity in this election.
The Tarrance Group, Inc.
Voter.com/Battleground 2000 – Republican Strategic Analysis
page 11
Conclusions
There is a real crosscurrent in the United States today, with both currents having similar
effects on the voters who are generally risk-averse. On the one hand, Americans are
comfortable with how things are going economically right now, and they do not want to
rock the boat or allow anything to disrupt the flow of economic security they are feeling.
On the other hand, voters are feeling that values are crumbling in our society, and they
feel that this deterioration is threatening their (and the country’s) future. They are not in
the mood to take a risk. There is no doubt that voters are sure to be cautious in
November of whom they choose to be the next President. They don’t want to risk voting
for a candidate who is not who he claims to be and they do not want to risk voting for a
candidate that will bog the country down in partisan fights. To a great extent, this is
where Gore’s style is most working against him, Al Gore has an aggressive political style
that seems to thrive on attacking his opponents. Voters want a man who will be strong
when he needs to be, but cautious and thoughtful in every step of the process. George W.
Bush’s style is more that of a consensus builder, and at this point in time that is what
most Americans envision as the type of role model they would like to see in the White
House.
The Tarrance Group, Inc.