CNN/ORC
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Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on February 24 - 27, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 920 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points). This sample includes 600 interviews among landline respondents and 401 interviews among cell phone respondents. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Monday, February 29 at 6:00 a.m. BASED ON 910 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 10 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 920 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS. 2. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election-- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? Extremely enthusiastic Very Somewhat Not too Not at all No enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic opinion Registered Voters Feb. 24-27, 2016 25% 27% 19% 13% 16% * Jan. 21-24, 2016 Sept. 17-19, 2015 Sept. 4-8, 2015 August 13-16, 2015 July 22-25, 2015 Nov. 2-4, 2012 Sept. 28-30, 2012 Sept. 7-9, 2012 Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2012 Aug. 22-23, 2012 June 28-July 1, 2012 Mar. 24-25, 2012 Feb. 10-13, 2012 Jan. 11-12, 2012 Oct. 14-16, 2011 June 3-7, 2011 March 11-13, 2011 Oct. 5-7, 2010* Sept. 21-23, 2010* Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, 2008 Oct. 17-19, 2008 Sept. 5-7, 2008 June 23-24, 2007 Oct. 14-16 2004 Sept. 3-5 2004 Oct. 24-26 2003 32% 31% 30% 29% 22% 38% 37% 30% 32% 31% 28% 24% 22% 24% 28% 29% 28% 20% 23% 37% 34% 30% 26% 36% 32% 19% 24% 24% 24% 27% 26% 30% 25% 27% 25% 27% 25% 23% 26% 27% 23% 25% 30% 22% 17% 32% 24% 30% 28% 34% 32% 34% 21% 24% 25% 23% 27% 17% 20% 22% 20% 23% 25% 29% 26% 27% 28% 25% 24% 30% 31% 16% 23% 23% 27% 17% 23% 31% 13% 10% 10% 10% 13% 9% 9% 15% 11% 10% 13% 11% 13% 10% 9% 10% 11% 16% 17% 7% 11% 11% 13% 8% 9% 11% 9% 10% 12% 10% 11% 5% 9% 6% 11% 9% 9% 12% 13% 12% 12% 10% 7% 12% 12% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% * 1% * * * 1% * * * 1% * * * * * 1% * * * * * * * 1% * 1% POLL 4 3 -2- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 290 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 128 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 418 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 2. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election-- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? Extremely enthusiastic Very Somewhat Not too Not at all No enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic opinion Registered Democrats Feb. 24-27, 2016 23% 29% 21% 12% 15% * Jan. 21-24, 2016 Sept. 17-19, 2015 Sept. 4-8, 2015 August 13-16, 2015 July 22-25, 2015 Nov. 2-4, 2012 Sept. 28-30, 2012 Sept. 7-9, 2012 Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2012 Aug. 22-23, 2012 June 28-July 1, 2012 Mar. 24-25, 2012 Feb. 10-13, 2012 Jan. 11-12, 2012 Oct. 14-16, 2011 June 3-7, 2011 March 11-13, 2011 Oct. 5-7, 2010* Sept. 21-23, 2010* Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, 2008 Oct. 17-19, 2008 Sept. 5-7, 2008 June 23-24, 2007 Oct. 14-16 2004 Sept. 3-5 2004 Oct. 24-26 2003 28% 30% 28% 33% 18% 37% 39% 30% 32% 29% 27% 25% 20% 21% 21% 26% 26% 13% 16% 45% 45% 36% 28% 38% 31% 19% 24% 21% 24% 22% 28% 33% 25% 29% 24% 29% 32% 21% 29% 28% 22% 29% 30% 21% 14% 34% 23% 30% 32% 27% 26% 29% 26% 26% 26% 23% 28% 17% 21% 23% 23% 24% 26% 33% 27% 31% 34% 29% 27% 35% 36% 13% 20% 21% 27% 19% 23% 31% 14% 13% 9% 11% 15% 6% 8% 13% 9% 11% 9% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 12% 18% 19% 4% 7% 6% 9% 8% 10% 16% 8% 10% 13% 11% 11% 5% 7% 6% 12% 6% 6% 10% 12% 9% 12% 6% 5% 12% 15% 3% 5% 6% 4% 7% 10% 5% * * * * 1% 1% * * * 1% * * * 1% * 2% * * * * * * * 1% * * POLL 4 3 -3- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 306 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 121 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 427 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 2. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election-- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? Extremely enthusiastic Very Somewhat Not too Not at all No enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic opinion Registered Republicans Feb. 24-27, 2016 31% 27% 17% 13% 12% * Jan. 21-24, 2016 Sept. 17-19, 2015 Sept. 4-8, 2015 August 13-16, 2015 July 22-25, 2015 Nov. 2-4, 2012 Sept. 28-30, 2012 Sept. 7-9, 2012 Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2012 Aug. 22-23, 2012 June 28-July 1, 2012 Mar. 24-25, 2012 Feb. 10-13, 2012 Jan. 11-12, 2012 Oct. 14-16, 2011 June 3-7, 2011 March 11-13, 2011 Oct. 5-7, 2010* Sept. 21-23, 2010* Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, 2008 Oct. 17-19, 2008 Sept. 5-7, 2008 June 23-24, 2007 Oct. 14-16 2004 Sept. 3-5 2004 Oct. 24-26 2003 39% 35% 34% 28% 28% 42% 38% 32% 35% 35% 31% 25% 26% 26% 38% 38% 33% 29% 31% 28% 24% 26% 27% 35% 31% 19% 27% 30% 25% 33% 27% 28% 27% 25% 27% 26% 20% 27% 25% 28% 26% 23% 31% 25% 22% 32% 26% 28% 25% 42% 39% 39% 16% 22% 24% 23% 27% 17% 17% 19% 17% 22% 24% 25% 25% 25% 20% 18% 19% 25% 27% 19% 27% 26% 27% 15% 21% 32% 11% 6% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 17% 12% 8% 15% 13% 15% 12% 7% 10% 10% 13% 13% 9% 12% 15% 16% 6% 6% 7% 7% 5% 7% 7% 10% 4% 7% 7% 8% 10% 9% 11% 10% 9% 9% 10% 6% 8% 7% 12% 10% 4% 6% 2% 3% 2% * 1% * * * 1% * * 1% * 1% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 1% POLL 4 3 -4- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 910 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 10 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 920 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS. BASED ON 306 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 121 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 427 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. BASED ON 290 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 128 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 418 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 3. Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? More Less Same (vol.) No Opinion All Registered Voters Feb. 24-27, 2016 Nov. 2-4, 2007 Oct. 27-29, 2006 Oct. 6-8, 2006 Aug. 30–Sep.2, 2006 49% 62% 47% 49% 48% 40% 29% 37% 36% 36% 12% 9% 14% 12% 15% * * 2% 3% 1% Registered Democrats Feb. 24-27, 2016 Nov. 2-4, 2007 Oct. 27-29, 2006 Oct. 6-8, 2006 Aug. 30–Sep.2, 2006 46% 68% 52% 53% 49% 42% 24% 33% 34% 37% 12% 8% 12% 10% 13% * * 2% 3% 1% Registered Republicans Feb. 24-27, 2016 Nov. 2-4, 2007 Oct. 27-29, 2006 Oct. 6-8, 2006 Aug. 30–Sep.2, 2006 58% 54% 42% 46% 46% 30% 38% 40% 37% 35% 12% 8% 16% 15% 18% * * 2% 2% 1% (CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP TRENDS ON NEXT PAGE) POLL 4 3 -5- February 24-27, 2016 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same (vol.) No opinion REGISTERED VOTERS 2004 Oct 14-16* 2004 Sep 3-5* 2004 Aug 23-25* 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1* 2004 Jul 19-21* 2004 Mar 26-28 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 2000 Oct 13-15 2000 Mar 10-12 2000 Jan 7-10 67 65 60 69 60 52 56 38 39 45 21 23 29 22 25 29 32 39 38 37 12 11 11 9 14 18 12 20 22 17 * 1 --1 1 * 3 1 1 Republicans 2004 Oct 14-16 2004 Sep 3-5 2004 Aug 23-25 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 2004 Jul 19-21 2004 Mar 26-28 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 2000 Mar 10-12 2000 Jan 7-10 70 62 62 64 52 53 54 46 53 21 28 28 25 30 25 30 29 30 12 13 9 11 15 20 15 22 16 1 * 1 * 2 1 1 1 1 Democrats 2004 Oct 14-16 2004 Sep 3-5 2004 Aug 23-25 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 2004 Jul 19-21 2004 Mar 26-28 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 2000 Mar 10-12 2000 Jan 7-10 70 62 63 76 67 53 59 35 40 21 28 27 19 20 32 34 45 41 10 7 10 6 12 13 6 19 17 -2 * --1 1 1 2 * Asked of half sample. NOTE: Trend for presidential elections only. POLL 4 3 -6- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 306 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 121 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 427 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 4. I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primaries for president this year. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president, or if you would support someone else. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, or Donald Trump. (RANDOM ORDER) Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Christie Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Pataki Paul Perry Santorum Walker Someone else (vol.) None/No one (vol.) No opinion Feb. 24-27 2016 Jan. 21-24 2016 Dec. 17-21 2015 Nov. 27Dec. 1 2015 Oct. 14-17 2015 Sept 17-19 2015 Sept. 4-8 2015 49% 16% 15% 10% 6% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3% 1% 1% 41% 8% 19% 6% 1% 5% 4% 2% * NA 3% NA NA 3% NA * NA 3% 1% 4% 39% 10% 18% 10% 2% 3% 5% 1% * 1% 2% NA * 4% NA * NA 3% 1% 1% 36% 12% 16% 14% 2% 3% 4% 3% * * 2% NA * 1% NA * NA 1% 4% 2% 27% 8% 4% 22% 3% 8% 4% 4% * 1% 5% * * 5% NA 2% NA 1% 2% 4% 24% 11% 6% 14% 2% 9% 3% 15% * * 6% * * 4% NA 1% * * 1% 3% 32% 3% 7% 19% 2% 9% 2% 3% * 1% 5% 1% * 3% * 1% 5% 3% 2% 2% (QUESTION 4 CONTINUED ON THE NEXT PAGE) POLL 4 3 -7- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 306 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 121 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 427 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 4. I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primaries for president this year. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president, or if you would support someone else. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, or Donald Trump. (RANDOM ORDER) Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Christie Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Pataki Paul Perry Santorum Walker Someone else (vol.) None/No one (vol.) No opinion 5. July 22-25 2015 June 26-28 2015 24% 8% 5% 9% 5% 13% 3% 5% * * 4% * * 6% 2% 1% 8% 4% 3% 1% 18% 6% 7% 4% 4% 15% 4% 1% * 1% 5% 2% 1% 6% 3% 2% 10% 4% 4% 3% 12% 7% 3% 8% 3% 17% 3% 1% NA 1% 5% 2% * 8% 4% 4% 6% 5% 6% 3% Would you say you will definitely will support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind? Definitely support Might change mind No opinion POLL 4 3 Aug. 13-16 2015 Feb. 24-27 2016 Jan. 21-24 2016 68% 32% * 53% 46% * -8- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 368 REPUBLICAN/REPUBLICAN LEANING VOTERS NOT SUPPORTING TED CRUZ -SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 6. If Ted Cruz won the Republican Party’s nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Feb. 24-27 2016 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion 35% 34% 20% 11% * BASED ON 358 REPUBLICAN/REPUBLICAN LEANING VOTERS NOT SUPPORTING MARCO RUBIO -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 7. If Marco Rubio won the Republican Party’s nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Feb. 24-27 2016 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion 38% 31% 17% 12% 1% BASED ON 227 REPUBLICAN/REPUBLICAN LEANING VOTERS NOT SUPPORTING DONALD TRUMP -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 8. If Donald Trump won the Republican Party’s nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Feb. 24-27 2016 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion POLL 4 3 25% 27% 13% 35% 1% -9- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 306 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 121 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 427 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 9. Now I’m going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: (RANDOM ORDER RESPONSES AND ATTRIBUTES) Feb.24-27 Nov. 27-Dec. 1 2016 2015 Would be most effective at solving the country’s problems Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Kasich Bush Christie Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Pataki Paul Santorum Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion 51% 17% 13% 10% 5% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA * 2% 2% 42% 12% 10% 14% 1% 4% 4% 3% * 1% 1% * 1% * 1% 3% 2% 48% 17% 15% 8% 7% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA * 3% 1% 37% 16% 10% 11% 1% 8% 4% 2% * 1% 2% * 2% * * 2% 4% Can best handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Kasich Bush Christie Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Pataki Paul Santorum Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion POLL 4 3 -10- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 306 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 121 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 427 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 9. Now I’m going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: [INTERVIEWER: DO NOT READ LIST AGAIN UNLESS RESPONDENT ASKS] (RANDOM ORDER RESPONSES AND ATTRIBUTES) Feb.24-27 2016 Best understands the problems facing people like you Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Kasich Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion 46% 18% 15% 11% 7% * 2% 2% Is the most honest and trustworthy Trump Carson Cruz Rubio Kasich Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion POLL 4 3 35% 22% 14% 13% 9% * 6% 1% -11- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 290 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 128 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 418 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 10. I'm going to read a list of people who are be running in the Democratic primaries for president this year. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president, or if you would support someone else. Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders (RANDOM ORDER) Clinton Sanders Biden Chafee Lessig O’Malley Webb Someone else (vol.) None/No one (vol.) No opinion Clinton Sanders Biden Chafee Lessig O’Malley Webb Someone else (vol.) None/No one (vol.) No opinion 11. Jan. 21-24 2016 Dec. 17-21 2015 Nov. 27Dec. 1 2015 Oct. 14-17 2015 Sept. 17-19 2015 55% 38% NA NA NA NA NA 3% 2% 2% 52% 38% NA NA NA 2% NA 7% 1% 1% 50% 34% NA NA NA 3% NA 7% 4% 1% 58% 30% NA NA NA 2% NA 7% 2% 1% 45% 29% 18% * * * 1% 2% 3% 2% 42% 24% 22% * NA 1% * 2% 4% 2% Sept. 4-8 2015 Aug. 13-16 2015 July 22-25 2015 June 26-28 2015 37% 27% 20% * NA 3% 2% 7% 4% 1% 47% 29% 14% * NA 2% 1% 4% 3% * 56% 19% 15% * NA * 1% 4% 3% 1% 58% 15% 17% * NA 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% Would you say you will definitely will support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind? Definitely support Might change mind No opinion POLL 4 3 Feb. 24-27 2016 Feb. 24-27 2016 Jan. 21-24 2016 67% 33% * 62% 37% * -12- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 165 DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANING VOTERS NOT SUPPORTING HILLARY CLINTON-- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 7.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 12. If Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Party’s nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support her in the general election in November, probably support her, probably NOT support her, or definitely NOT support her in the general election in November? Feb. 24-27 2016 Definitely support her Probably support her Probably not support her Definitely not support her No opinion 36% 29% 13% 20% 2% BASED ON 286 DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANING VOTERS NOT SUPPORTING BERNIE SANDERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. 13. If Bernie Sanders won the Democratic Party’s nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Feb. 24-27 2016 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion POLL 4 3 41% 33% 18% 6% 2% -13- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 290 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 128 WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 418 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS-- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS. 14. Now I’m going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: (RANDOM ORDER RESPONSES AND ATTRIBUTES) Feb. 24-27 2016 Would be more effective at solving the country’s problems Clinton Sanders Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion 63% 33% 2% 1% 1% Feb. 24-27 Nov. 27-Dec. 1 2016 2015 Can better handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief Clinton Sanders O’Malley Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion 73% 24% NA 1% * * 64% 24% 6% 2% 3% 1% QUESTION WORDING PRIOR 2016: “Can best handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief”. Feb. 24-27 2016 Better understands the problems facing people like you Clinton Sanders Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion 49% 48% 1% 2% 1% Feb. 24-27 2016 Is more honest and trustworthy Sanders Clinton Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion POLL 4 3 59% 36% 1% 3% 2% -14- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 910 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 10 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 920 REGISTERED VOTERS -- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS.) (QUESTIONS 15 AND 16 ROTATED) 15. Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president? (RANDOM ORDER) Clinton Sanders Biden Chafee O’Malley Webb Someone else (vol.) No opinion Feb. 24-27 2016 Jan. 21-24 2016 Sept. 4-8 2015 July 22-25 2015 70% 25% NA NA NA NA 2% 3% 63% 28% NA NA 4% NA 2% 2% 55% 13% 22% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 75% 8% 9% * 1% 1% 2% 4% FOR COMPARISON QUESTION WORDING: Just your best guess… regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president this year? Obama Clinton No opinion Apr. 28-30 2008 Jan. 9-10 2008 Oct.12-14 2007 57% 37% 5% 38% 55% 3% 16% 64% 6% DATA SHOWN PRIOR TO SEPTEMBER 2015 IS FOR ALL ADULTS NOT REGISTERED VOTERS POLL 4 3 -15- February 24-27, 2016 BASED ON 910 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 10 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 920 REGISTERED VOTERS -- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS.) 16. Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year? (RANDOM ORDER) Feb. 24-27 2016 Trump 70% Rubio 13% Cruz 11% Carson 2% Kasich 1% Bush NA Christie NA Fiorina NA Gilmore NA Graham NA Huckabee NA Jindal NA Pataki NA Paul NA Perry NA Santorum NA Walker NA Someone else (vol.) 2% No opinion 2% Jan. 21-24 Sept. 4-8 2016 2015 56% 8% 17% 2% 3% 5% 1% 1% * NA * NA NA 1% NA 1% NA 1% 4% 41% 4% 3% 9% 2% 22% 2% 1% * 1% 1% * * 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 8% July 22-25 2015 18% 6% 4% 2% 1% 39% 3% * * 1% 2% * * 3% 1% 1% 11% 2% 6% FOR COMPARISON QUESTION WORDING: Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president this year? Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul Someone else (vol.) Bachmann Cain Huntsman Perry None/ No one (vol.) No opinion Feb. 10-13 2012 Dec. 16-18 2011 Oct. 14-16 2011 Sept. 9-11 2011 68% 13% 11% 5% * N/A N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% 41% 2% 37% 4% * 6% N/A * 4% 2% 3% 51% 1% 3% 3% * 3% 18% * 14% N/A 8% 28% 1% 6% 4% * 3% 5% 1% 41% 3% 2% DATA SHOWN PRIOR TO SEPTEMBER 2015 IS FOR ALL ADULTS NOT REGISTERED VOTERS POLL 4 3 -16- February 24-27, 2016 METHODOLOGY A total of 1,001 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Republicans, and 39% described themselves as independents or members of another party. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "NA". POLL 4 3 -17- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 2 How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year's election -extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic or not at all enthusiastic? Base = Registered Voters Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------25% 25% 25% 28% 27% 31% 22% 27% 19% 17% 21% 19% 13% 13% 13% 13% 16% 14% 18% 13% * * * * +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 19% 13% 16% * +/-3.0 Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------25% 19% 27% 27% 19% 18% 13% 15% 16% 20% * * +/-3.0 +/-5.5 Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 19% 13% 16% * +/-3.0 Democrat ----25% 31% 21% 9% 14% * +/-6.0 Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 19% 13% 16% * +/-3.0 North east ----23% 27% 18% 14% 17% * +/-7.0 Midwest ----25% 24% 26% 14% 11% * +/-7.0 South ----30% 28% 16% 12% 14% * +/-5.5 Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 19% 13% 16% * +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------47% 34% 7% 8% 3% * +/-7.5 Tea Pty Neutral ------16% 23% 22% 15% 23% * +/-5.0 Tea Pty White All Oppose Evang. Others ------- ----- -----28% 32% 23% 29% 27% 27% 19% 19% 19% 11% 13% 13% 13% 10% 18% 1% * * +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-3.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----19% 24% 17% 22% 18% * +/-8.5 Non-White --------19% 26% 19% 12% 24% * +/-7.0 5064 ----30% 29% 20% 9% 11% * +/-5.5 $50K or more ------29% 27% 21% 12% 11% * +/-4.5 65+ ----33% 29% 17% 11% 9% 1% +/-5.0 College Grad ------34% 27% 18% 11% 10% * +/-5.0 Independent -----17% 21% 19% 16% 26% * +/-5.5 Republican -----34% 29% 16% 13% 8% * +/-5.5 Under 55 ----22% 27% 17% 14% 20% * +/-5.5 55 and Older -----30% 27% 21% 10% 11% 1% +/-4.0 Non College Grad -------21% 26% 19% 14% 19% * +/-4.5 Lean Democrat -----23% 29% 21% 12% 15% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----27% 29% 19% 8% 17% * +/-6.5 Moderate ----18% 25% 20% 17% 21% * +/-5.5 West ----18% 27% 18% 12% 24% * +/-7.0 Urban ----28% 24% 22% 11% 15% 1% +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----31% 27% 17% 13% 12% * +/-5.0 Conservative ------33% 27% 18% 13% 9% * +/-5.0 Suburban ----24% 27% 19% 13% 17% * +/-4.5 Rural ----26% 27% 16% 16% 14% * +/-7.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -18- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 3 Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? Base = Registered Voters More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic About the same as usual No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------49% 56% 41% 51% 40% 33% 46% 36% 12% 11% 12% 13% * * * * +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic About the same as usual No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 40% 12% * +/-3.0 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic About the same as usual No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------49% 49% 40% 43% 12% 7% * * +/-3.0 +/-5.5 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic About the same as usual No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 40% 12% * +/-3.0 Democrat ----47% 39% 14% * +/-6.0 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic About the same as usual No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 40% 12% * +/-3.0 North east ----47% 44% 9% 1% +/-7.0 Midwest ----43% 39% 18% * +/-7.0 South ----53% 36% 11% * +/-5.5 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic About the same as usual No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 40% 12% * +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------75% 11% 14% 1% +/-7.5 Tea Pty Neutral ------37% 52% 11% * +/-5.0 Tea Pty White All Oppose Evang. Others ------- ----- -----54% 57% 46% 35% 29% 43% 11% 13% 11% 1% * * +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-3.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----37% 50% 12% * +/-8.5 Non-White --------44% 48% 9% * +/-7.0 5064 ----55% 32% 12% 1% +/-5.5 $50K or more ------48% 38% 14% * +/-4.5 65+ ----58% 29% 13% * +/-5.0 College Grad ------47% 35% 18% * +/-5.0 Independent -----40% 50% 10% * +/-5.5 Republican -----62% 27% 11% * +/-5.5 Under 55 ----45% 43% 12% * +/-5.5 55 and Older -----54% 34% 11% * +/-4.0 Non College Grad -------49% 42% 9% * +/-4.5 Lean Democrat -----46% 42% 12% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----51% 37% 12% * +/-6.5 Moderate ----39% 49% 12% * +/-5.5 West ----49% 41% 9% 1% +/-7.0 Urban ----49% 38% 13% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----58% 30% 12% * +/-5.0 Conservative ------59% 29% 11% * +/-5.0 Suburban ----47% 42% 11% * +/-4.5 Rural ----55% 35% 10% * +/-7.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -19- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 4 I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primaries for president this year. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president, or if you would support someone else. Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------10% 7% 13% 11% 15% 17% 12% 13% 6% 8% 3% 7% 16% 14% 18% 14% 49% 50% 47% 50% 3% 2% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 15% 6% 16% 49% 3% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------10% 13% 15% 15% 6% 3% 16% 17% 49% 49% 3% 3% 1% * 1% 1% +/-5.0 +/-8.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 15% 6% 16% 49% 3% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 15% 6% 16% 49% 3% 1% 1% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----9% 12% 5% 13% 56% 4% 1% 1% +/-8.5 $50K or more ------7% 15% 8% 16% 50% 3% * 1% +/-6.5 65+ ----7% 15% 9% 16% 47% 1% 1% 3% +/-7.0 College Grad ------7% 13% 9% 19% 46% 5% * 1% +/-7.5 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----9% 13% 5% 16% 51% 2% 2% 1% +/-5.5 South ----13% 16% 5% 21% 42% 1% * 1% +/-7.5 Under 55 ----12% 14% 5% 17% 47% 3% 1% * +/-8.0 55 and Older -----7% 16% 7% 14% 50% 3% 1% 2% +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------11% 15% 5% 15% 50% 2% 2% 1% +/-6.0 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----10% 15% 6% 16% 49% 3% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Conservative ------11% 20% 4% 16% 46% 2% * 1% +/-6.0 Suburban ----6% 13% 6% 16% 51% 4% 2% 1% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -20- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 4 I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primaries for president this year. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president, or if you would support someone else. Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 15% 6% 16% 49% 3% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Tea Pty Support ------12% 16% 3% 9% 56% 1% 1% 2% +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------9% 15% 6% 20% 45% 4% 2% 1% +/-6.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----16% 5% 20% 11% 5% 7% 12% 18% 44% 52% 1% 4% * 2% 2% * +/-7.5 +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -21- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 5 Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind? Base = Registered Republicans who support a candidate Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------68% 67% 68% 68% 32% 33% 32% 32% * * * * +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----68% 32% * +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------68% 69% 32% 31% * * +/-5.0 +/-8.5 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----68% 32% * +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----68% 32% * +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----68% 32% * +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----72% 28% * +/-8.5 $50K or more ------68% 32% * +/-7.0 65+ ----70% 30% * +/-7.5 College Grad ------68% 32% * +/-7.5 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------73% 27% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------65% 35% * +/-7.0 Republican -----73% 27% * +/-6.0 South ----73% 27% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----67% 33% * +/-8.0 55 and Older -----68% 32% * +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------68% 32% * +/-6.5 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----68% 32% * +/-5.0 Conservative ------69% 31% * +/-6.0 Suburban ----59% 41% * +/-7.5 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----70% 67% 30% 33% * * +/-8.0 +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -22- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 6 If Ted Cruz won the Republican Party's nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Base = Registered Republicans not supporting Ted Cruz Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------35% 35% 36% 37% 34% 34% 33% 34% 20% 21% 18% 18% 11% 10% 12% 10% * * 1% 1% +/-5.0 +/-7.0 +/-7.5 +/-5.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 34% 20% 11% * +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 34% 20% 11% * +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 34% 20% 11% * +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 34% 20% 11% * +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 34% 20% 11% * +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------38% 34% 14% 13% 1% +/-7.0 65+ ----47% 34% 6% 12% 1% +/-7.5 College Grad ------47% 30% 10% 12% 1% +/-8.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------54% 30% 12% 4% * +/-8.5 Tea Pty Neutral ------28% 35% 27% 10% * +/-7.0 Republican -----42% 32% 15% 11% 1% +/-6.0 South ----41% 38% 14% 7% * +/-8.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----29% 33% 27% 10% 1% +/-8.5 55 and Older -----43% 35% 10% 11% * +/-6.5 Non College Grad -------30% 35% 24% 10% * +/-6.5 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----35% 34% 20% 11% * +/-5.0 Conservative ------46% 30% 15% 9% 1% +/-6.5 Suburban ----31% 28% 28% 13% 1% +/-7.5 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----48% 28% 27% 38% 15% 23% 10% 11% * 1% +/-8.5 +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -23- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 7 If Marco Rubio won the Republican Party's nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Base = Registered Republicans not supporting Marco Rubio Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------38% 36% 40% 38% 31% 32% 30% 32% 17% 16% 19% 17% 12% 15% 9% 11% 1% 1% 2% 2% +/-5.0 +/-7.0 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 31% 17% 12% 1% +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 31% 17% 12% 1% +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 31% 17% 12% 1% +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 31% 17% 12% 1% +/-5.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 31% 17% 12% 1% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------46% 29% 15% 9% 1% +/-7.0 65+ ----46% 31% 11% 9% 3% +/-8.0 College Grad ------48% 28% 17% 5% 2% +/-8.5 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------55% 27% 9% 9% * +/-8.5 Tea Pty Neutral ------29% 33% 22% 14% 2% +/-7.5 Republican -----43% 31% 14% 11% 1% +/-6.0 South ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----34% 32% 18% 15% 1% +/-8.5 55 and Older -----42% 31% 16% 8% 2% +/-6.5 Non College Grad -------33% 33% 18% 15% 1% +/-6.5 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----38% 31% 17% 12% 1% +/-5.0 Conservative ------50% 27% 12% 10% 2% +/-6.5 Suburban ----36% 28% 20% 14% 2% +/-7.5 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----45% 33% 31% 32% 13% 20% 10% 14% * 2% +/-8.0 +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -24- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 8 If Donald Trump won the Republican Party's nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Base = Registered Republicans not supporting Donald Trump Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------25% 31% 27% 26% 13% 13% 35% 30% 1% 1% +/-6.5 +/-8.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 13% 35% 1% +/-6.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 13% 35% 1% +/-6.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 13% 35% 1% +/-6.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 13% 35% 1% +/-6.5 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably not support him Definitely not support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----25% 27% 13% 35% 1% +/-6.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----27% 33% 14% 25% 1% +/-7.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----28% 28% 14% 29% 1% +/-7.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------22% 27% 12% 38% * +/-8.5 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----32% 32% 13% 22% 1% +/-8.0 Lean Republican -----25% 27% 13% 35% 1% +/-6.5 Conservative ------29% 32% 12% 26% 2% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -25- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9A Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: A. Would be most effective at solving the country's problems Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------10% 8% 13% 12% 17% 19% 14% 14% 5% 7% 4% 6% 13% 11% 15% 11% 51% 51% 49% 53% * * * * 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 17% 5% 13% 51% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------10% 12% 17% 20% 5% 1% 13% 14% 51% 49% * 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% +/-5.0 +/-8.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 17% 5% 13% 51% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----6% 16% 4% 10% 60% * 3% * +/-8.5 $50K or more ------9% 15% 8% 14% 51% * 2% 1% +/-6.5 65+ ----7% 15% 9% 18% 49% * 1% 1% +/-7.0 College Grad ------6% 12% 10% 18% 52% 1% * 1% +/-7.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----10% 16% 5% 14% 54% * 1% 1% +/-5.5 Under 55 ----13% 17% 4% 13% 50% * 1% 2% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------12% 19% 4% 11% 50% * 3% 2% +/-6.0 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----6% 17% 7% 14% 51% * 3% 1% +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----10% 17% 5% 13% 51% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Conservative ------11% 22% 4% 13% 47% * 2% 1% +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -26- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9A Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: A. Would be most effective at solving the country's problems Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 17% 5% 13% 51% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----10% 17% 5% 13% 51% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------10% 18% 3% 7% 61% 1% 1% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------12% 17% 5% 16% 45% * 3% 2% +/-6.5 South ----13% 19% 5% 17% 45% * * * +/-7.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----7% 14% 5% 14% 54% * 2% 4% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----13% 9% 22% 13% 3% 7% 11% 14% 49% 52% * * 1% 2% * 3% +/-7.5 +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -27- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9B Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: B. Can best handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------8% 5% 13% 10% 17% 21% 13% 16% 7% 8% 5% 8% 15% 14% 18% 14% 48% 50% 45% 48% * * * * 3% 2% 4% 2% 1% * 2% 1% +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 17% 7% 15% 48% * 3% 1% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------8% 14% 17% 16% 7% 2% 15% 15% 48% 50% * 1% 3% 1% 1% * +/-5.0 +/-8.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 17% 7% 15% 48% * 3% 1% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----7% 15% 5% 13% 54% * 3% 2% +/-8.5 $50K or more ------5% 19% 10% 17% 46% * 2% 1% +/-6.5 65+ ----7% 18% 10% 15% 47% * 1% * +/-7.0 College Grad ------6% 18% 13% 19% 40% 1% * 3% +/-7.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----9% 16% 7% 16% 49% * 2% 1% +/-5.5 Under 55 ----10% 17% 6% 16% 47% * 2% 1% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------9% 17% 4% 14% 50% * 4% * +/-6.0 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----6% 18% 8% 14% 48% * 3% 1% +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----8% 17% 7% 15% 48% * 3% 1% +/-5.0 Conservative ------10% 23% 6% 13% 45% * 2% 1% +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -28- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9B Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: B. Can best handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 17% 7% 15% 48% * 3% 1% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 17% 7% 15% 48% * 3% 1% +/-5.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------8% 22% 3% 9% 57% 1% 1% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------9% 17% 7% 19% 43% * 4% 1% +/-6.5 South ----10% 20% 5% 21% 44% * * * +/-7.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----4% 15% 8% 19% 48% * 4% 1% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----13% 5% 22% 15% 6% 8% 13% 17% 45% 49% * 1% 1% 4% * 1% +/-7.5 +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -29- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9C Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: C. Best understands the problems facing people like you Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------11% 8% 14% 13% 18% 16% 19% 16% 7% 10% 2% 8% 15% 15% 15% 14% 46% 48% 44% 47% * * 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----11% 18% 7% 15% 46% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------11% 13% 18% 22% 7% 2% 15% 13% 46% 48% * 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% +/-5.0 +/-8.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----11% 18% 7% 15% 46% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----10% 12% 6% 13% 55% 1% 3% 1% +/-8.5 $50K or more ------10% 15% 8% 17% 47% 1% 2% 1% +/-6.5 65+ ----9% 19% 13% 15% 40% * 3% * +/-7.0 College Grad ------8% 15% 13% 19% 42% 1% 1% 1% +/-7.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----11% 15% 5% 17% 49% 1% 1% 2% +/-5.5 Under 55 ----13% 18% 5% 16% 46% * 1% 2% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------12% 19% 4% 13% 48% * 2% 2% +/-6.0 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----9% 18% 9% 12% 47% 1% 3% 1% +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----11% 18% 7% 15% 46% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Conservative ------13% 22% 5% 14% 43% * 2% 1% +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -30- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9C Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: C. Best understands the problems facing people like you Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----11% 18% 7% 15% 46% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----11% 18% 7% 15% 46% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------11% 21% 3% 13% 52% * 1% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------11% 18% 8% 15% 43% 1% 3% 2% +/-6.5 South ----12% 24% 7% 16% 41% * * * +/-7.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----5% 17% 6% 16% 49% 1% 2% 3% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----13% 10% 24% 13% 4% 8% 12% 16% 44% 48% * * 1% 2% 1% 2% +/-7.5 +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -31- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9D Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: D. Is the most honest and trustworthy Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------22% 20% 24% 23% 14% 16% 12% 12% 9% 11% 7% 11% 13% 14% 13% 12% 35% 35% 36% 35% * * * * 6% 4% 8% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1% +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----22% 14% 9% 13% 35% * 6% 1% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------22% 21% 14% 11% 9% 3% 13% 12% 35% 46% * * 6% 8% 1% * +/-5.0 +/-8.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----22% 14% 9% 13% 35% * 6% 1% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----24% 12% 5% 16% 35% * 7% 1% +/-8.5 $50K or more ------23% 14% 12% 16% 29% * 5% 1% +/-6.5 65+ ----22% 12% 15% 16% 32% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 College Grad ------18% 18% 14% 18% 29% * 2% 1% +/-7.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----22% 16% 8% 15% 35% * 3% 1% +/-5.5 Under 55 ----20% 16% 8% 13% 36% * 7% 1% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------23% 12% 7% 12% 37% * 8% * +/-6.0 Lean Democrat -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----24% 12% 11% 14% 33% * 5% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----22% 14% 9% 13% 35% * 6% 1% +/-5.0 Conservative ------24% 17% 8% 10% 34% * 6% 1% +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -32- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 9D Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: D. Is the most honest and trustworthy Base = Registered Republicans Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----22% 14% 9% 13% 35% * 6% 1% +/-5.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----22% 14% 9% 13% 35% * 6% 1% +/-5.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------25% 20% 6% 11% 35% * 2% 1% +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------22% 11% 8% 15% 35% * 9% * +/-6.5 South ----23% 16% 6% 18% 33% * 3% * +/-7.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----18% 14% 10% 13% 37% * 7% 1% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----28% 18% 14% 14% 8% 10% 12% 14% 29% 39% * * 8% 5% 1% * +/-7.5 +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -33- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 10 I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Democratic primaries for president this year. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president, or if you would support someone else. Base = Registered Democrats Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------55% 47% 60% 53% 38% 45% 33% 38% 3% 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% +/-5.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----55% 38% 3% 2% 2% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------55% 58% 38% 39% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----55% 38% 3% 2% 2% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----55% 38% 3% 2% 2% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----55% 38% 3% 2% 2% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----59% 35% 4% 2% * +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----63% 26% 5% 3% 3% +/-8.0 $50K or more ------52% 39% 5% * 4% +/-7.0 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------53% 40% 4% 3% * +/-8.5 65+ ----70% 23% 3% 3% 1% +/-8.0 College Grad ------50% 43% 3% * 3% +/-7.0 Independent -----44% 46% 1% 3% 6% +/-8.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------56% 39% 2% * 3% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----64% 30% 2% 2% 3% +/-8.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------55% 37% 3% 1% 4% +/-6.0 Under 55 ----47% 47% 3% 2% 1% +/-8.0 55 and Older -----66% 24% 3% 3% 3% +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------57% 35% 3% 3% 1% +/-7.0 Lean Democrat -----55% 38% 3% 2% 2% +/-5.0 Liberal ----47% 48% 2% * 3% +/-7.0 Moderate ----63% 29% 4% 3% 1% +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----58% 37% 2% 2% 1% +/-8.5 Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----54% 39% 2% 1% 4% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 55% N/A 39% N/A 3% N/A 1% N/A 2% +/-5.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -34- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 11 Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind? Base = Registered Democrats who support a candidate Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------67% 65% 68% 70% 33% 35% 32% 30% * * * * +/-5.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----67% 33% * +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------67% 69% 33% 31% * * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----67% 33% * +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----67% 33% * +/-5.0 Definitely support Might change mind No opinion Sampling Error Total ----67% 33% * +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----69% 31% * +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----80% 20% * +/-8.5 $50K or more ------65% 35% * +/-7.0 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----75% 25% * +/-8.0 College Grad ------64% 36% * +/-7.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A South ----N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------74% 26% * +/-6.5 Under 55 ----60% 40% * +/-8.5 55 and Older -----78% 22% * +/-6.5 Non College Grad -------68% 32% * +/-7.0 Lean Democrat -----67% 33% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----73% 27% * +/-7.5 Moderate ----58% 42% * +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----67% 33% * +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 66% N/A 34% N/A * +/-5.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -35- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 12 If Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Party's nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support her in the general election in November, probably support her, probably NOT support her, or definitely NOT support her in the general election in November? Base = Registered Democrats not supporting Hillary Clinton Definitely support her Probably support her Probably NOT support her Definitely NOT support her No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Definitely support her Probably support her Probably NOT support her Definitely NOT support her No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Definitely support her Probably support her Probably NOT support her Definitely NOT support her No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Definitely support her Probably support her Probably NOT support her Definitely NOT support her No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Definitely support her Probably support her Probably NOT support her Definitely NOT support her No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Definitely support her Probably support her Probably NOT support her Definitely NOT support her No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Men ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Democrat -----36% 29% 13% 20% 2% +/-7.5 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 36% N/A 32% N/A 11% N/A 18% N/A 2% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -36- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 13 If Bernie Sanders won the Democratic Party's nomination for the presidency, would you definitely support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him, or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November? Base = Registered Democrats not supporting Bernie Sanders Definitely support him Probably support him Probably NOT support him Definitely NOT support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably NOT support him Definitely NOT support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably NOT support him Definitely NOT support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably NOT support him Definitely NOT support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably NOT support him Definitely NOT support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Definitely support him Probably support him Probably NOT support him Definitely NOT support him No opinion Sampling Error Total ----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Men ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women White --------40% 37% 39% 34% 15% 17% 5% 10% 1% 2% +/-7.5 +/-7.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----42% 33% 15% 8% 2% +/-7.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------49% 30% 14% 6% 2% +/-8.5 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------53% 29% 11% 5% 1% +/-8.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------55% 23% 14% 6% 2% +/-7.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----37% 40% 9% 10% 4% +/-7.0 Non College Grad -------36% 35% 20% 7% 2% +/-8.0 Lean Democrat -----41% 33% 18% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----27% 41% 25% 5% 2% +/-8.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----43% 32% 18% 5% 2% +/-8.5 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 42% N/A 34% N/A 17% N/A 5% N/A 2% +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -37- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 14A Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: A. Would be MORE effective at solving the country's problems Base = Registered Democrats Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------63% 53% 71% 60% 33% 43% 26% 36% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% +/-5.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----63% 33% 2% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------63% 61% 33% 37% 2% 2% 1% * 1% * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----63% 33% 2% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----63% 33% 2% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----63% 33% 2% 1% 1% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----69% 27% 2% 1% 1% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----69% 28% 1% 2% 1% +/-8.0 $50K or more ------63% 32% 2% * 2% +/-7.0 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------66% 29% 3% * 1% +/-8.5 65+ ----74% 24% 1% * 1% +/-8.0 College Grad ------55% 40% 2% * 3% +/-7.0 Independent -----48% 49% 2% * 1% +/-8.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------66% 31% 2% * 1% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----72% 24% 4% 1% * +/-8.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------61% 36% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Under 55 ----56% 40% 2% * 1% +/-8.0 55 and Older -----74% 23% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------68% 29% 2% 1% * +/-7.0 Lean Democrat -----63% 33% 2% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Liberal ----56% 42% 1% * 1% +/-7.0 Moderate ----69% 27% 3% * 1% +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----68% 29% * 1% 2% +/-8.5 Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----59% 38% 2% * 1% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 64% N/A 33% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 1% +/-5.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -38- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 14B Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: B. Can BETTER handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief Base = Registered Democrats Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------73% 65% 79% 70% 24% 32% 19% 28% 1% 2% 1% 1% * 1% * 1% * 1% * * +/-5.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----73% 24% 1% * * +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------73% 70% 24% 29% 1% 1% * * * * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----73% 24% 1% * * +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----73% 24% 1% * * +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----73% 24% 1% * * +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----76% 22% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----77% 21% 2% 1% * +/-8.0 $50K or more ------78% 20% 2% * 1% +/-7.0 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------75% 22% 2% * * +/-8.5 65+ ----80% 17% 2% * 1% +/-8.0 College Grad ------75% 22% 1% 1% * +/-7.0 Independent -----68% 31% 1% * * +/-8.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------77% 21% 1% * * +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----79% 18% 2% 1% * +/-8.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------73% 25% 1% * * +/-6.0 Under 55 ----69% 29% 1% * * +/-8.0 55 and Older -----79% 17% 2% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------72% 26% 1% * * +/-7.0 Lean Democrat -----73% 24% 1% * * +/-5.0 Liberal ----68% 31% * 1% 1% +/-7.0 Moderate ----79% 20% 1% * * +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----76% 22% * 1% * +/-8.5 Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----75% 23% 1% 1% * +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 75% N/A 23% N/A 1% N/A * N/A * +/-5.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -39- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 14C Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: C. BETTER understands the problems facing people like you Base = Registered Democrats Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------49% 41% 55% 47% 48% 53% 44% 49% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% * 1% +/-5.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 48% 1% 2% 1% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------49% 50% 48% 47% 1% * 2% 2% 1% * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 48% 1% 2% 1% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 48% 1% 2% 1% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 48% 1% 2% 1% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----54% 43% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----55% 42% 1% 1% 1% +/-8.0 $50K or more ------46% 50% 1% * 2% +/-7.0 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------48% 46% 1% 3% 1% +/-8.5 65+ ----64% 32% 3% 1% * +/-8.0 College Grad ------44% 53% 1% * 3% +/-7.0 Independent -----36% 59% 1% 2% 2% +/-8.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------51% 46% * 1% 1% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----62% 36% * 1% 1% +/-8.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------48% 50% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 Under 55 ----42% 56% * 2% 1% +/-8.0 55 and Older -----60% 36% 2% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------52% 45% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 Lean Democrat -----49% 48% 1% 2% 1% +/-5.0 Liberal ----42% 56% * 1% * +/-7.0 Moderate ----52% 44% 1% 2% 1% +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----49% 46% 1% 3% 1% +/-8.5 Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----49% 49% 1% * 2% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 49% N/A 49% N/A 1% N/A 1% N/A 1% +/-5.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -40- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 14D Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: D. Is MORE honest and trustworthy Base = Registered Democrats Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------36% 26% 44% 34% 59% 68% 52% 60% 1% 1% * 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% * +/-5.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 59% 1% 3% 2% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------36% 40% 59% 58% 1% * 3% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 59% 1% 3% 2% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 59% 1% 3% 2% +/-5.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 59% 1% 3% 2% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----41% 53% 1% 4% 2% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----43% 52% 1% 3% 1% +/-8.0 $50K or more ------31% 62% 1% 3% 3% +/-7.0 Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------39% 55% 1% 2% 3% +/-8.5 65+ ----59% 34% 2% 3% 1% +/-8.0 College Grad ------26% 68% * 3% 3% +/-7.0 Independent -----23% 74% 1% * 1% +/-8.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-White --------38% 58% * 1% 3% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----48% 48% * 1% 2% +/-8.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------33% 63% * 3% 1% +/-6.0 Under 55 ----26% 71% * 2% 1% +/-8.0 55 and Older -----51% 42% 1% 4% 2% +/-6.0 Non College Grad -------41% 54% 1% 3% 1% +/-7.0 Lean Democrat -----36% 59% 1% 3% 2% +/-5.0 Liberal ----26% 71% * 2% 1% +/-7.0 Moderate ----42% 53% * 3% 2% +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----37% 61% * * 1% +/-8.5 Lean Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----35% 60% * 4% 1% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ----- -----N/A 36% N/A 60% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 2% +/-5.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -41- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 15 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president? Base = Registered Voters Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------70% 72% 69% 71% 25% 25% 25% 24% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 4% 3% +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----70% 25% 2% 3% +/-3.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------70% 62% 25% 32% 2% 2% 3% 4% +/-3.0 +/-5.5 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----70% 25% 2% 3% +/-3.0 Democrat ----81% 18% 1% * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----70% 25% 2% 3% +/-3.0 North east ----65% 29% 2% 5% +/-7.0 Midwest ----65% 28% 2% 5% +/-7.0 South ----78% 19% 2% 1% +/-5.5 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----70% 25% 2% 3% +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------71% 25% 2% 2% +/-7.5 Tea Pty Neutral ------65% 28% 3% 4% +/-5.0 Tea Pty White All Oppose Evang. Others ------- ----- -----80% 70% 70% 19% 21% 26% 1% 3% 2% 1% 6% 2% +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-3.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----75% 19% 1% 5% +/-8.5 Non-White --------68% 28% 3% 1% +/-7.0 5064 ----72% 23% 3% 2% +/-5.5 $50K or more ------79% 17% 2% 1% +/-4.5 65+ ----82% 15% 1% 2% +/-5.0 College Grad ------80% 18% 2% 1% +/-5.0 Independent -----61% 31% 4% 4% +/-5.5 Republican -----69% 27% * 4% +/-5.5 Under 55 ----64% 31% 2% 3% +/-5.5 55 and Older -----80% 16% 2% 2% +/-4.0 Non College Grad -------66% 29% 2% 4% +/-4.5 Lean Democrat -----79% 20% 1% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----72% 27% * 1% +/-6.5 Moderate ----71% 23% 3% 3% +/-5.5 West ----68% 28% 3% 1% +/-7.0 Urban ----72% 24% 3% 1% +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----67% 29% 1% 3% +/-5.0 Conservative ------69% 25% 2% 3% +/-5.0 Suburban ----70% 25% 2% 3% +/-4.5 Rural ----65% 29% 1% 5% +/-7.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -42- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 16 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president? Base = Registered Voters Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------2% 1% 3% 1% 11% 10% 11% 9% 1% 2% 1% 2% 13% 10% 16% 12% 70% 75% 64% 74% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----2% 11% 1% 13% 70% 2% 2% +/-3.0 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------2% 2% 11% 11% 1% 1% 13% 11% 70% 70% 2% 3% 2% 1% +/-3.0 +/-5.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----2% 11% 1% 13% 70% 2% 2% +/-3.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----2% 10% 1% 16% 65% 4% 2% +/-6.0 3549 ----1% 11% * 14% 71% 1% 1% +/-8.5 Non-White --------3% 15% 1% 15% 59% 4% 3% +/-7.0 5064 ----3% 6% 1% 14% 69% 4% 3% +/-5.5 $50K or more ------1% 10% 1% 14% 71% 1% 2% +/-4.5 65+ ----* 10% 3% 9% 74% 1% 2% +/-5.0 College Grad ------* 12% * 17% 67% 1% 3% +/-5.0 Independent -----1% 12% 2% 11% 69% 2% 3% +/-5.5 Republican -----2% 10% 1% 11% 76% 1% 1% +/-5.5 Under 55 ----2% 12% * 14% 69% 2% 1% +/-5.5 Non College Grad -------3% 10% 2% 11% 71% 3% 1% +/-4.5 Lean Democrat -----2% 12% 2% 16% 64% 3% 2% +/-5.0 Liberal ----1% 6% 2% 19% 68% 3% 2% +/-6.5 Moderate ----3% 11% 1% 13% 68% 2% 2% +/-5.5 55 and Older -----2% 9% 3% 11% 70% 3% 3% +/-4.0 Lean Republican -----1% 11% 1% 9% 78% * 1% +/-5.0 Conservative ------2% 13% * 8% 74% 2% 2% +/-5.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -43- February 24-27, 2016 CNN/ORC International Poll -- February 24 to 27, 2016 Question 16 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president? Base = Registered Voters Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----2% 11% 1% 13% 70% 2% 2% +/-3.0 North east ----2% 8% 2% 15% 70% 2% 1% +/-7.0 Midwest ----2% 14% 3% 15% 65% 2% * +/-7.0 South ----3% 12% * 13% 68% 2% 2% +/-5.5 Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----2% 11% 1% 13% 70% 2% 2% +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------1% 7% * 7% 82% 1% 2% +/-7.5 Tea Pty Neutral ------2% 14% 1% 11% 69% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Tea Pty White All Oppose Evang. Others ------- ----- -----1% 2% 2% 8% 8% 12% 2% 1% 1% 19% 11% 13% 64% 77% 68% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-3.5 West ----* 9% 1% 8% 75% 3% 3% +/-7.0 Urban ----3% 7% 1% 17% 65% 4% 2% +/-6.0 Suburban ----1% 12% 2% 13% 69% 2% 2% +/-4.5 Rural ----2% 12% 2% 6% 75% 1% 2% +/-7.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 4 3 -44- February 24-27, 2016
