Maintaining the historical directionality of syntactic change in numeral phrases David Willis (University of Cambridge) Parametric approaches to syntactic change (Lightfoot 1991, 1999) suggest that languages undergo radical restructuring of certain parts of their grammar at particular times. A single underlying change is reflected in multiple surface changes manifested at roughly the same time. Conversely, it has also long been recognized that a series of apparently related changes may take many centuries to run to completion (Sapir 1949 [1921]: 150). These two observations present a paradox: on the one hand, we wish to unify a series of changes by deriving them from a single underlying shift; yet, disparate timings of individual changes seem to necessitate a separate representation for each in the grammar. The long-term nature of change presents a further problem: how can successive generations move their grammars one step towards the new parametric setting in an apparently directed way? This paper examines these issues with respect to changes in the syntax of noun phrases containing numerals in Welsh, in the comparative context of similar developments in Russian. I argue that a series of changes in the syntax of Welsh numeral phrases since the medieval period reflects a single fundamental shift: Middle Welsh (MW) numeral phrases are sensitive to properties (features) of the numeral (dual, numerative vs. singular, plural), but not to properties of the noun (gender); Present-day Welsh (PDW) numeral phrases, on the other hand, are sensitive only to the gender of the headnoun. This can be interpreted as a shift in the semantico-syntactic status of numerals: in MW, number was represented as an interpretable syntactic feature on numerals, [iNum: DUAL/NUMERATIVE]; today, the number of numerals is purely semantic and not represented syntactically (i.e. the iNum feature has been lost). In the short run, speakers ‘patch up’ the grammar, replicating much of the surface output of the number-based agreement system, but without recourse to a number feature. In the long run, loss of this feature leads to the spread of gender-based rather than number-based agreement in the noun phrase. In this way, changes are unified as reflecting a single change, namely the loss of the interpretable number feature, yet the long-term staged nature of the developments is successfully modelled. Evidence for the shift comes from changing patterns of agreement and initial consonant mutation (data idealized from searching a substantial body of electronically available texts throughout the period in question). In MW, the form of a noun in a numeral phrase varies according to context: it may be formally singular or plural, or in a special ‘numerative’ form used only with numerals (e.g. ‘son’: singular mab, numerative meib, plural meibion, see (1)–(3)). Modifying adjectives manifest complex patterns of agreement and initial consonant mutation (‘soft’ mutation indicated using bold underline in (2)). On the surface, these patterns mix items of different specifications (singular, numerative, plural) in unexpected combinations. However, they become regular if we suggest that the entire phrase is dual after ‘two’, numerative after higher numerals, and singular or plural as appropriate if numerals are absent. On this analysis, agreement copies the value of an interpretable number feature on the numeral to all heads within the noun phrase. The apparent complexity is due to morphological syncretism e.g. cryfion is both the numerative and plural of cryf ‘strong’. Soft mutation then appears throughout (2) because, with the numeral ‘two’, the feature [iNum: DUAL] spreads to every head within the phrase, and this feature triggers soft mutation on the following word. In PDW, exemplified in (4)–(6), nouns and adjectives in numeral phrases are uniformly singular. Agreement and mutation patterns distinguish between masculine and feminine nouns, but are insensitive to the numeral itself. Adjectives in numeral phrase must now be singular; soft mutation occurs on the numeral ‘two’ and the word immediately following, but is otherwise determined by gender: soft mutation has disappeared with 1 masculine nouns in contexts that previously required it, while it has been innovated with feminine nouns where it was previously excluded (e.g. MW tair mam cryfion ‘three strong mothers’ > PDW tair mam gryf, with innovation of soft mutation on gryf). Loss of the interpretable [iNum] feature is best placed early, during the MW period. However, while some of the surface changes appear then, others are later, and some are not complete even in PDW. Parts of the older system are maintained on the surface using ad-hoc lexical entries for some time. The chronology of these changes suggests that a naïve interpretation of parametric change cannot be maintained, and that some notion of actualization must be incorporated into it. The relative ordering of changes may nevertheless be significant: less salient contexts and those which are best specified in structural terms (e.g. adjectives after feminine nouns with numerals higher than three) come into line with the new parameter setting at an earlier date than contexts which are more salient or which can be specified lexically. Finally, we will consider support offered for this interpretation by the parallel of changes in the syntax of Russian numerals (Babby 1987, Rappaport 2002). Here, loss of dual has led to a far-reaching realignment of patterns of case and agreement, with existing surface forms being partially maintained by reinterpreting them as instances of a new category of quantitative genitive. Again, the new system is implemented over the space of several hundred years, and the central shift is best understood as being in place earlier and triggering micro-changes, rather than deriving from them. (1) (2) surface: analysis: (3) surface: analysis: (4) (5) (6) mab cryf meibion cryfion son.SG strong.SG son.PL strong.PL ‘a strong son’ (MW) ‘strong sons’ (MW) y ddau fab gryfion the two son.SG strong.PL the.DU two.DU son.DU strong.DU ‘the two strong sons’ (MW) y tri meib cryfion the three son.NUM strong.PL the.NUM three.NUM son.NUM strong.NUM ‘the three strong sons’ (MW) mab cryf meibion cryf(ion) son.SG strong.SG son.PL strong.(PL) ‘a strong son’ (PDW) ‘strong sons’ (PDW) y ddau fab cryf the two son.SG strong.SG ‘the two strong sons’ (PDW) y tri mab cryf the three son.SG strong.SG ‘the three strong sons’ (PDW) References Babby, Leonard H. 1987. Case, prequantifiers, and discontinuous agreement in Russian. Natural Language and Linguistic Theory 5, 91–138. Lightfoot, David W. 1991. How to set parameters. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Lightfoot, David W. 1999. The development of language. Oxford: Blackwell. Rappaport, Gilbert C. 2002. Numeral phrases in Russian: A minimalist approach. Journal of Slavic Linguistics 10, 329–42. Sapir, Edward. 1949 [1921]. Language. London: Harvest. 2