1.0 OVERVIEW
1.1 AGRICULTURE
The country's economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounts for 27% of the GDP and 35%
of foreign currency.
The country has a dual agricultural economy (the smallholder sub-sector and the commercial/large-scale
sub-sector). The small holder farmers dominating the agricultural sector are estimated to be 31 million.
These agricultural holders carry out rain fed agriculture, producing a variety of crops mainly for subsistence
purposes. These holders account for most of the food produced in the country.
The main food crops grown in the country are maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas,
pulses, paddy and wheat. Cash crops grown in Tanzania include coffee, Cashew nut, Tea, cotton, tobacco
and sisal. On average the crop sub sector contributes about 34.8% percent of the Agricultural GDP.
The agricultural sector is the main source of employment and livelihood for about 77.5% of the population.
It is an important economic sector in terms of food production, employment generation, production of raw
material for industries, and generation of foreign exchange earnings.
1.2 ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN RELATION TO THE SECTOR
AND NATIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
1.2.1
Introduction
Subsidized agriculture has consistently been increasing in terms of quantity from 2005/6 up to 2009/10.
The sharp increase was observed from 2007/8 to 2009/10. The crops covered by this system were
Cashewnut, coffee, cotton, maize, paddy, sorghum, sunflower and tea. The main inputs supplied include
agrochemicals, inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds and improved seedlings
Under this subsidy arrangement, selected farmers were given inputs for the sake of increasing agricultural
productivity. The increase in agricultural productivity is a sign of increased sector performance and,
consequently, the determinant for the positive influence of the agricultural sector to the National GDP.
The subsidy scheme was implemented using the contract and voucher systems. The contract system was
implemented from 2005/6 to 2007/8 in which fourteen agents were selected in different regions to supply
inputs to all 21 regions in Tanzania mainland. The voucher system was implemented in 2008/9 and
2009/10. The regions covered in 2008/9 under this new system were eleven including Arusha, Iringa,
Kigoma, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, Mara (Tarime district), Mbeya, Morogoro, Rukwa, Ruvuma and Tabora
(Sikonge district). In 2009/10 all regions in Tanzania mainland were covered except Dar es salaam.
1
The assessment of the agricultural subsidies in relation to the sector and GDP covers the following: -
i)
To analyze the National and agricultural sector GDP growth trends
ii) To analyze agricultural subsidies as a percentage of crops sub-sector GDP
iii) To analyze the crops sub-sector GDP as a percentage of the National GDP
iv) To assess the area covered by subsidies as compared to the total area under cultivation
v) To give recommendations on how to utilize subsidies for increased agricultural production and GDP
1.2.2 Methodology
i.
Data sources: The data were collected from the department of policy and planning (budget allocation
to agricultural subsidies), department of crop development (amount of subsidies supplied and area
covered), the National Bureau of Statistics Crop subsector GDP.
ii.
Analysis method: The data were analyzed using excel pivot tables and multilevel charts. The results
were interpreted and discussed using the word processing computer software
iii.
Agriculture, wildlife and fisheries (AWF) sector GDP calculation method: The GDP quoted for this
report was calculated using both the current and 2001 prices. According to the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS), GDP is calculated using the production, expenditure or income methods. The
agricultural sector GDP is calculated using the production (value added) as expressed in the model
below: -
Value added = Output – Intermediate consumption
Where
Output = Production (tons) x price (Tshs). It is either calculated at constant prices, 2001 as a reference
year or prices of the current/production year
Intermediate consumption = Direct costs incurred during the production process (fertilizers, seeds,
pesticides etc.) this excludes indirect costs like labor in kind, subsidies, taxes etc.
Whereas the GDP is calculated in the calendar year (January to December), the subsidy supply is
reported using the financial year (July to June). In Tanzania, we have two agriculture seasons namely
short rains (October – January) and long rains (February – June) in a year. Crop production for
agriculture season 2005/06 is normally harvested in calendar year 2006.
2
1.2.3
Agriculture, wildlife and fisheries (AWF) and National GDP growth trends
For ease of discussion, the agriculture, wildlife and fisheries sector has been referred to as the agricultural
Chart 1.1: Relative growth of sector and National GDP
0.080
GDP growth rate
0.070
National GDP growth trend
(compared to previous year)
0.060
0.050
Agricultural sector GDP
growth trend (cf. previous
year GDP)
0.040
0.030
0.020
Crops sub-sector GDP
growth trend (compared to
previous year)
0.010
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9 2009/10
sector throughout the report.
As one can see in chart 1.1, generally the National and agricultural sector GDP grew and reached peaks in
2008 and minima in 2009 before rising slightly in 2010. The National GDP reached a peak of 7.4% in 2008
and reached a minimum of 6% in 2009 and then rose to 7% in 2010. The Agricultural sector GDP reached
a peak of 4.6% in 2008 and reached a minimum of 3.2% in 2009 and then rose to 4.2% in 2010. The crops
sub-sector GDP reached a peak of 5.1% in 2008 and reached a minimum of 3.4% in 2009 and then rose
to 4.4% in 2010. Of all the sectors, the sharpest fall in 2009 was with the crops sub-sector
This trend of GDP raise in 2008 and fall in 2009 has been attributed to the unfavourable of weather for
agriculture production. The good rainfall pattern in 2008 improved the production and the adverse weather
condition in 2009 diminished it. Since weather is the main determinant of the agricultural sector GDP, then
it follows that whenever there is adverse weather, the production and hence GDP falls and vice versa.
1.2.4
The influence of subsidies to the crops sub-sector and National GDP growth
The crops sub-sector GDP growth is a function of yield (production per unit area). This means any
parameter that influences productivity influences performance of the sub-sector. Subsidies are aimed at
increasing the sub-sector GDP through increased yield. The GDP measures production of goods and
services in the economy including crop-subsector for the specified reference year.
It follows therefore that, when all other factors are kept constant, the amount of subsidies is directly
proportional to the GDP growth.
3
As one can see
from
chart
above,
production
areas
the
6,000.000
in
5,000.000
under
4,000.000
subsidies
had
generally
been
growing
with
Chart 1.2: Production trends for crops in subsidized areas
1.2
2005/2006
3,000.000
though
some
2006/2007
2,000.000
2007/2008
1,000.000
2008/2009
-
undulations. The
2009/2010
observed fall in
production 2008/9
is
ascribed
among other things, to the fact that the regions benefiting from input subsidies fell from 21 for previous
reporting years to only 11 in 2008/9. The crop that leads in production is maize followed by paddy and
sorghum. Apart from subsidies, the increase is also attributed to the fact that, these are staple crops for
most of the Tanzania population
Chart 1.3: Yield trends for crops in subsidized areas
1.800
y = 0.086x 2 - 0.477x + 1.785
R² = 0.796
1.600
1.400
1.200
1.345
1.612
1.266
1.130
1.156
1.000
Average yield trends for
crops in subsidized areas
0.800
Poly. (Average yield trends
for crops in subsidized
areas)
0.600
0.400
0.200
-
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
As seen in chart 1.3 above, the average yield of crops in subsidized areas has been declining from
1.345tons/ha in 2005/6 to a turning point of 1.130tons/ha in 2008/9 then increased to 1.612 in 2009/10.
This increase might be contributed to the subsizidies.
4
Chart 1.4: Influence of subsidies to the sector and National GDP
80.00%
2.50%
share of the Agricultural
sector GDP to National GDP
70.00%
2.00%
60.00%
Share of the crops subsector GDP to National GDP
50.00%
1.50%
40.00%
1.00%
30.00%
20.00%
0.50%
10.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Share of the crops subsector GDP to Agricultural
sector GDP
Percentage of subsidies to
the crops sub-sector GDP
Percentage of subsidies to
Agricultural sector GDP
2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10
The crops sub-sector actual spending on subsidies has progressively been increasing from Tshs 7,400
million in 2005/6 to Tshs 110,038 million in 2009/10. As is seen in chart 1.4 and taking prices of respective
years, the percentage spending relative to the sub-sector GDP grew from 0.21% in 2005/6 to 1.91% in
2009/10. This is the clear indication of the government dedication to improve agricultural productivity
through subsidies to smallholders.
Basing on the 2001 prices, the National GDP has increased from Tshs 12,881,163 million in 2006 to
16,828,563 million in 2010. This increase is equivalent to 30.6%. The share contribution of crop subsector
to the agriculture GDP was about 75 to 76% for the years 2006 through 2010. The Agricultural sector GDP
has increased from Tshs 3,268,238 million in 2006 to 3,824,428 million over the same period (equivalent to
17.0% growth). The crops subsector GDP has increased from Tshs 2,457,373 million in 2006 to Tshs
2,913,474 million in 2010 equivalent to 16.5% growth. This is a clear indication that, the national GDP
growth rate is almost twice the Agricultural sector growth rate for the years 2006 through 2010. The slow
rate of agricultural sector GDP growth rate might be attributed to better performance of other economic
sectors, unreliable weather and low level of agricultural subsidies.
As compared to the national GDP, contribution of the Agricultural sector and crops sub-sector has been
diminishing from 25.37% and 19.08% in 2006 to 22.73% and 17.3 1% in 2010 respectively. The lowest
point was in 2008 and the highest points were in 2006. This situation might be attributed to the higher
performance of other sectors of the economy. More studies need to be done for verification of this.
This trend tells us that, despite the increased level of subsidies, the crops sub-sector performance is still
below the performance of other sectors. As will be seen in the next section, this might partly be attributed
to the small percent of the area under subsidies as compared to the total area under cultivation (2-5% in
5
the last five cropping years). Due to this, agricultural subsidies do not have a significant bearing on the
national agricultural productivity and hence GDP.
1.2.5
Area under Agricultural subsidies
Tanzania is endowed with an area of 94.5 million ha of land, out of which 44 million ha are classified as
suitable for agriculture. According to National Sample Census for Agriculture of 2002/2003 the area under
cultivation is 9.1 million ha. This includes 7.8 ha of annual crops (including fallow), 1.2 million ha
permanent crops (including planted trees) i.
No data was found to establish the area under crop subsidies. So the area was computed basing on the
amount of fertilizers supplied to farmers. The system of agricultural subsidy requires that the farmer
identified is given 50kg of basal dressing, 50kg of top dressing fertilizers and improved seeds. The plan is
Chart 1.5: Relationship between total area under cultivation to area under crop subsidies
12%
10%
14,000
y = 145.6x2 - 392.4x + 9878.
R² = 0.496
12,000
10,000
8%
8,000
6%
6,000
4%
4,000
2%
2,000
0%
-
Total area under cultivation
('000ha)
Percentage of subsidized
area to total area under
subsidized crops
Percentage of area under
subsidies to total cultivated
area
Poly. (Total area under
cultivation ('000ha))
2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10
for the farmer to use the subsidies in one acreii. That means one ton covers 10acres or approximately 4ha
As one can see from chart 1.5 above, the total area under cultivation has been undulating over years from
9,482,000ha in 2005/6 to 10,364,000ha then declining to the turning point of 8,850,000ha in 2007/8 and
then elevated to a peak of 11,501,000ha in 2008/9 and then slightly declined to 11,319,000ha in 2009/10
(a discrete fall of 1.5% as compared to 2008/9 but a cumulative increase of 19% as compared to that of
2005/6)iii.
While this undulation is happening with the total area under cultivation, the area under agricultural
subsidies has progressively been increasing from 216,062ha in 2005/6 to 607,264ha in 2009/10. The
percentage of area under subsidies to the total cultivated area has progressively been increasing from the
minimum of 2% in 2005/6 and then maintained a level of 4% in subsequent years and then reached a
6
maximum level of 5% in 2009/10. The proportion of the area under subsidies to the area under crops in
subsidized areas is almost double as compared to the proportion to the total area under cultivation. This
leap in input subsidy has mainly been attributed to the National strategy for Tanzania green revolution
through the National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme (NAIVS).
As has been observed above, this share of area under subsidies is so small that it has no significant
bearing on the sector performance as compared to the National GDP.
1.2.6
Recommendations for having subsidies contribute to the increased Agricultural sector GDP
Though a generalized comparative overview has been made for productivity of crops that are subsidized,
this study could not address the comparison of price trends for agricultural products grown in areas under
subsidies and the ones without. This is due to lack of data. Therefore, an independent study has to be
carried out to establish the crop price trends under subsidized agriculture and area without subsidies so
that we establish whether subsidies increases or decreases prices and hence the GDP.
7
2. CROP PRODUCTION
Crops are categorized into different groups as follows:
(i)
Cereal Crops: (Maize, Paddy, Sorghum, Wheat and Millets)
(ii)
Root and Tuber Crops: ( Cassava, Sweet potatoes, Round potatoes, Yams and Coco yams)
(iii)
Pulse Crops: (Beans, Chick peas, Cow peas, bambaranuts, Field peas and Pigeon peas)
(iv)
Oil seed crops: (Groundnuts, sunflower, simsim, Oil Palm, soya beans and castor seeds)
(v)
Fruit and vegetables: (Tomatoes, cabbage, onions, amaranth’s, chillies and water melon)
(vi)
Traditional crops: ( cotton, coffee, cashew nuts, tobacco, sisal, tea, pyrethrum, sugarcane, palm oil
and flowers)
(a) CEREAL CROPS:
Main cereal crops grown in Tanzania are; maize, paddy, sorghum, wheat and millets. Production of
cereal crops has been fluctuating from one year to another as it can be seen from graphical
presentations that follow below.
2. 1 CEREAL CROPS
2.1.1 Maize:
Maize is the dominant cereal crop
Chart 2.1: Maize Planted Area and Yield
grown in almost all twenty one
Tanzania
area
increased
from
2,570,147 hectares in 2005/06 to
3,050,714
hectares
in
5,000
Mainland.
2009/10
agricultural year. The increase is
2.0
4,000
1.5
3,000
1.0
2,000
about 481 hectares which is about
18.7 percent increase. The yield of
maize also increased from 1.3 tons
per hectare in 2005/06 to 1.6 tons
0.5
1,000
-
0.0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Agricultural Year
per hectare in 2009/10 agricultural
Area ('000'ha)
year. (Chart 2.1)
8
Yield (tons/ha)
2009/10
Yield (t/ha)
Planted
of
Area (hectares)
regions
Production
of
maize
has
been
Chart 2.2 : Maize Production in Tons ('000') from (2005/06 -2009/10)
fluctuating from one year to another due
rainfall. The highest production was
recorded in agriculture sample census
of 2007/08 with 5,438,776 tons. When
compared
to the production of
Quantity Produced ( '000' )
to some factors such as shortage of
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
4,733,073 tons in 2009/10, there was a
2005/06
decrease of about 705,703 tons, which
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Agricultural Year
is equivalent to 13 percent. (Chart 2.2).
The increase in maize production in 2007/08 was attributed by increase in area cultivated and increase in
fertilizers used for maize production (Chart 2.3).
Chart 2.3: The influence of fertilizer use and rainfall on maize
production (2005/06 - 2009/10 cropping year)
6,500.00
5,500.00
Rainfall ('000' mm)
4,500.00
Fertilizer used ( '000'
tons)
3,500.00
Maize production
('000' tons)
2,500.00
1,500.00
500.00
-500.00
2009/10
year,
agricultural
Mbeya
produced
more
followed by
Shinyanga,
Morogoro
These
six
regions.
regions
together produced about
2,559,134
tons
700
maize
Iringa, Rukwa, Ruvuma
and
Chart 2.4: Maize Production in Metric Tons by Region for the year ( 2009/10) Agricultural Year.
region
out
600
Production (MT '0 00')
In
Years
500
400
300
200
100
0
of
Region
4,733,073 tons produced
in the country. This was equivalent to 54 percent of the total maize production. The remaining 15 regions
shared the remaining 46 percentage of maize production. (Chart 2.4)
9
2.1.2 Paddy: Area planted
paddy
Chart 2.5: Paddy Planted Area and Yield
increased
sample census of agriculture
2007/08.
Planted
area
remained more or less the
same up to 2008/09,
p
icked
hectares
up
to
in
2009/10
then it
1,136,287
The
highest yield of 2.4 tons per
hectare
was
recorded
in
Area (hectares)
dramatically since the last
3,000
3.0
2,500
2.5
2,000
2.0
1,500
1.5
1,000
1.0
500
0.5
-
Yield (t/ha)
with
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2006/07 agricultural year. This
has been attributed by
Area (Ha
'000')
Yield(Ton/Ha)
Agricultural
Year
the
highest recorded rains in the five years (2005/6 to 2009/10).
From there, paddy yield fluctuated in the following two years of 2007/08 and 2008/09. The yield picked up to
2.3 tons per hectare in 2009/10 agricultural year (Chart 2.5)
Paddy production remained more or less the same from 2005/06 to 2008/09. Production increased
dramatically from 1,334,800 tons in 2008/09 to 2,650,115 tons in 2009/10 agricultural year. The increase is
equivalent to 98.5 percent.
There are many reasons that contributed to the increase of paddy production. Among them are: the increase in
the area cultivated under paddy, use of fertilizers under inputs voucher system, enough rainfall distribution as
well as increase in the use of irrigation (Chart 2.6 & 2.7)
Chart 2.6: Paddy Production in Tons (2005/06 - 2009/10)
Quantity Produced '000')
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Agricultural Year
10
2008/09
2009/10
Chart 2.7: The influence of fertilizer use and rainfall on paddy
production (2005/06 - 2009/10 cropping year)
6,500.00
5,500.00
Rainfall ('000' mm)
4,500.00
Fertilizer used ( '000'
tons)
3,500.00
Paddy production
('000' tons)
2,500.00
1,500.00
500.00
-500.00
Years
During 2009/10 agricultural year, the highest paddy production was recorded in Arusha region followed by
Morogoro,
Chart 2.8: Paddy Production by Region in Tons from (2009/10) Agricultural Year.
Shinyang
, Mbeya ,
Mwanza ,
Kilimanjar
o
and
Ruvuma.
Quantity produced ('000')
a , Rukwa
500
400
300
200
100
These
eight
0
regions
together
REGION
produced
about 2,212,918 tons, which is equivalent to 84 percent of the national total paddy production in 2009/10
agricultural year(Chart 2.8)
2.1.3 Sorghum: This is one of a drought tolerant crop grown in areas with marginal annual rainfall like central
zone covering Dodoma and Singida regions, Lake Zone covering Mwanza, Mara and Shinyanga regions, and
southern zone of Lindi and Mtwara regions. Area planted with sorghum fluctuated from one year to another.
Area planted with sorghum decreased from 874,220 hectares in 2008/09 to 618,369 hectares in 2009/10. This
is equivalent to 29.27% decrease. The highest yield of 1.3 tons per hectare was recorded in 2009/10
agricultural year. (Chart 2.9)
11
Sorghum production increased
Chart 2.9 Sorghum Planted Area and Yield
by 11% in 2005/6 season and
by 36% in 2006/7. This record
Area (hectares)
record in the five years. This
peak was attributed by the
highest amount of
rainfall
1.5
800
1.0
600
400
recorded. From 2007/8 up to
200
2009/10, production increased
0
0.5
0.0
2005/06
from 8% – 13% per annum.
2006/07
2007/08
Agriculture Year
2008/09
2009/10
(Chart 2.10).
The
highest
production
in
sorghum
1200
was recorded in Mara
by
Singida,
Dodoma
and
Shinyanga.
These
regions
four
together
produced about 532,464
tons. This accounts about
67%
of
national
1000
Quantity Produced ( '000' tons)
followed
Area (Ha '000')
Yield(Ton/Ha)
Chart 2.10: Sorghum Production in Tons (2005/06 - 2009/10)
2009/10
region
Yield (t/ha)
1000
of 971,198 tons is the highest
production. (Chart 2.11)
Chart 2.11:
800
600
400
200
0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Agricultural Year
2009/10
Production of Sorghum by Region for (2009/10) Agricultural Year.
Quantity Produced ('000')
300
240
180
120
Series1
60
0
Region
12
2.2 TRADITIONAL CASH CROPS
2.2.1 Cotton: Area planted
Chart 2.12 Cotton Planted Area and Yield
from
1,500.00
Area (hectares)
319,493 hectares in 2005/06 to
421,200 hectares in 2009/10.
This is equivalent to 14%
unpredictable prices and lack
of inputs. The high leap in
production in 2007/8 was
caused by heavy rains that fell
in that year.
In 2009/10, production of
cotton by regions in Tanzania
indicated that Shinyanga
region produced the highest
amount of cotton (146,150
tons) as compared to other
regions that produce cotton in
the country. (Chart 2.14)
2.2.2 Cashew nut
Up to the time of preparing this
booklet, the census data on
cashew
nuts
were
still
in
preparation. So the data for
cashewnut for 2007/2008 has
1.0
900.00
700.00
0.5
300.00
100.00
-100.00
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
0.0
2009/10
Agriculture Year
Area ('000'ha)
Yield (tons/ha)
Chart 2.13 Production of Cotton in Tons ('000') 2005/06 - 2009/10
600
Quantity Produced ( '000')
Production of cotton (Chart
2.13) in five years decreased
from 376,587 tons in 2005/06
to 267,004 tons in 2009/10.
The decrease is equivalent to
29%. The decrease in cotton
production might be due to
1,100.00
500.00
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
P ro d. ( T o ns )
Agricultural Ye ar
Chart 2.14 Production of Cotton in Tons ('000') by Region for (2009/10) Agricultural
Year.
Quantity Produced ('000')
increase. In 2006/07 area
cultivated
for
cotton
decreased to 286,161 hectares
and then in 2007/08 increased
to
575,367
hectares.
Productivity
of
cotton
decreased from 1.2 tons /ha
in 2005/06 to 0.6 tons /ha in
2009/10. (Chart 2.12).
1.5
1,300.00
Yield (t/ha)
increased
160
120
80
40
0
Region
Chart 2.15 : Cashewnut Planted Area and Yield
400.0
0.40
300.0
0.30
200.0
0.20
100.0
0.10
0.0
0.00
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Agriculture Year
Area ('000'ha)
13
Yield (tons/ha)
Yield (t/ha)
cotton
Area (hectares)
for
been extracted from the budget speech. Area planted with cashew nuts fluctuated in five years. In 2005/06 a
total of 319,970 hectares were planted with this crop while in 2009/10 the area for cashew nuts decreased to
249,093 hectares. This is equal to 22% decrease. Productivity of cashewnut in the country increased from 0.28
tons/ha in 2005/06 to 0.30v tons /ha in 2009/10. (Chart 2.15)
Production
of
Cashewnut
Chart 2.16 : Cashew nut Production in Tons ('000') for (2005/06 - 2009/10)
100
2005/06 to 74,170 tons in
90
2009/10. This is equivalent to
80
18% decrease. This drop has
mainly been attributed to the
mismanagement of pesticides
by farmers due to a change
Quantity Produced ('000')
decreased from 90,380 tons in
70
60
50
40
30
20
from the use of pesticides in
10
powder form to the use of
0
2005/06
liquid form pesticides without
farmers training (AD CPS,
74,170 tons in 2009/10 to
121,070 tons in 2010/11. This
is equivalent to 63% increase.
(Chart 2.16)
Quantity Produced ('000')
the production increased from
2009/10
Chart 2.17 :Production of Cashewnut in Tons ('000') by Region for (2009/10)
Agricultural Year.
2011). In observation of this
fact, farmers were trained and
2006/07
2008/09
Agricultural Year
50
40
30
20
10
0
In 2009/10, production of
Region
cashewnut by regions in
Tanzania indicated that Mtwara region produced the highest amount of cashew nuts (38,990 tons) as
compared to other regions that produce cashewnut in the country. (Chart 2.17)
Char t 2.18 : Pyr e thr um
12.00
fluctuated
with
time.
In
2005/06 a total of 1,749
hectares were planted with
12.0
9.00
7.0
Yield (t/ha)
Area planted with pyrethrum
Area (hectares)
2.2.3 Pyrethrum
Plante d Ar e a and Yie ld
6.00
2.0
3.00
pyrethrum while in 2009/10 a
total area of 5,285 hectares
0.00
-3.0
2005/06
were planted with pyrethrum.
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Agr icultur al Ye ar
Area ('000'ha)
14
Yield (tons/ha)
This is equal to 202% increase. The largest area for pyrethrum was grown in 2008/09 (10,680 hectares) and
the smallest recorded area was in 2005/6 (1,749 ha). (Chart 2.18)
Productivity of pyrethrum in the country decreased from 1.43 tons/ha in 2005/06 to 0.63 tons /ha in 2009/10.
Production of pyrethrum increased from 2,500 tons in 2005/06 to 3,300 tons in 2009/10. This is equivalent to
33% increase in production. (Chart 2.19)
Quantity Produced ('000')
Chart 2.20: Production of Pyrethrum by Region for (2009/10)
Agricultural Year.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Mbeya
Manyara
Arusha
Tabora
Iringa
Region
In 2009/10, production of pyrethrum by regions indicated Mbeya region to produce more pyrethrum (1,890
tons) than other regions that produce pyrethrum (Chart 20).
2.2.4 Tobacco
Area planted with tobacco increased from 61,467 hectares In 2005/06 to 78,926 hectares in 2009/10. This is
equal to 28% increase.
Productivity of tobacco in the country decreased from 0.9 tons/ha in 2005/06 to 0.8 tons /ha in 2009/10. (Chart
2.21)
Production of tobacco increased from 56,500 tons in 2005/06 to 60,900 tons in 2009/10. This is equivalent to
8% increase. Increase in production might be due to increased use of fertilizers in the country. (Chart 2.22)
Chart 2.22 Tobacco Production in Tons ('000') for (2005/06 - 2009/10)
Chart 2.21: Tobacco Planted Area and Yield
1.5
Quantity produced ('000')
150.00
110.00
1.0
90.00
70.00
50.00
Yield (t/ha)
Area (hectares)
130.00
0.5
30.00
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
10.00
-10.00
80.0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Agriculture Year
Area ('000'ha)
2008/09
2009/10
2005/06
0.0
2006/07
2007/08
Production
('000'tons)Year
Agricultural
Yield (tons/ha)
15
2008/09
2009/10
In 2009/10, production of Tobacco by regions in Tanzania indicated that Tabora region produced more
tobacco (25,080 tons) than other regions that produce tobacco. (Chart 2.23)
Chart 2.23: Production of Tobacco by Region for (2009/10)
Agricultural Year.
Quantity Produced ('000')
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Region
16
3: AGRICULTURAL INPUTS
3.1 Fertilizers
The demand for fertilizers has been kept constant at 385,000 tons for the last five years that is
The
availability
has
been
fluctuating
between
78%
and 55% as compared to
the
The
demanded
proportion
fertilizers.
of
the
available fertilizer used has
constantly been increasing
from 49% in 2005/6 to 78%
Chart 3.1: Demand, availability and use of inorganic fertilizers
2005/06-2009/10
450,000
400,000
Amount of fertilizer (tons)
2005/06-2009/10.
350,000
300,000
250,000
Demanded
200,000
Available
150,000
Used
100,000
50,000
2005/2006
2006/2007
in 2009/10. In the same
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Years
manner, the proportion of
demanded fertilizer used has constantly been increasing from 31% in 2005/6 to 68% in 2009/10.
(Chart 3.1).
Supply of Fertilizers and Maize seeds under Input subsidies Programme 2005/06 – 2009/10
Under the Input voucher system, the Programme was able to supply a total number of 63000 tons of
fertilizers to farmers in 2005/06 and 150055 tons in 2009/10. This is equivalent to 138% increase of
fertilizers supplied to farmers under input voucher system.
In 2006/07 the Programme supplied a total of 814 tons of maize seeds to farmers and in 2009/10 it
supplied a total number of 14,700 tons of maize seeds. This increase is equivalent to 1705%. (Chart
3.2).
17
Chart 3.2: Supply of Fertilizers and Quality Maize seeds under Input subsidies Programme
2005/06-2009/10
160,000
150,055
141,050
140,000
120,000
Tonnes
100,000
89,941
82,005
80,000
Fertilizers supplied(Tons)
63,000
Quality Maize seeds(Tones)
60,000
Linear (Fertilizers supplied(Tons))
40,000
20,000
814
14,700
7,180
1,071
0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Years
3.2 SEEDS
Availability of seeds and use
Availability of seeds from Private sector increased from 8,748.25 tons in 2005/06 to 14,536.42 tons
in 2009/10. While Public Sector decreased from 1,728.92 tons in 2005/06 to 1,608.37 tons in
2009/10. This increase of seeds availability from private sector and decrease for public sector is
equivalent to 66 % increase and 7% decrease for private and public sector respectively. (Chart 3.3).
Chart 3.3: Availability of seeds from Private and Public sectors and use
of seeds 2005/06-2009/10
Tonnes
Private Secor
18,000.00
16,174.36
14,869.51
14,536.42
16,000.00
14,000.00
10,511.32
12,000.00
10,000.00 8,748.25
8,000.00
6,000.00
4,000.00 1,728.92 1,656.30
1,608.37
544.75
2,000.00
217.24
0.00
Public Sector
Use
Total Seed
Linear (Private Secor)
Linear (Public Sector)
2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
Linear (Use)
Years
18
Generally the availability of seeds and use increased from 10,477.17 tons in 2005/06 to 16,144.79
tons in 2009/10. This change is equivalent to 54 % increase.
For individual crop seeds, the availability was as indicated below:
Maize seeds
The availability of Maize
Chart 3.4: Availability of Maize seeds in Tanzania 2005/06 - 2009/10
seeds increased from
8,766.16 tons in 2005/06
Tonnes
to 13,323.51 tons in
2009/10. This change is
equivalent to 52%
16,000.00
14,000.00
12,000.00
10,000.00
8,000.00
6,000.00
4,000.00
2,000.00
0.00
increase of maize seeds
13,908.50
13,323.51
11,932.82
9,629.16
8,766.16
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Years
that were available to
farmers. (Chart 3.4).
Sorghum seeds
The
availability
of
Chart 3.5: Availability of Sorghum seeds in Tanzania 2005/06-2009/10
sorghum seeds increased
341.8
tons
in
3000
2005/06 to 1346.06 tons
2000
in 2009/10. This increase
However
2,170
1500
1,346.06
1000
500
is equivalent to 293 %
increase.
2,799.30
2500
Tonnes
from
341.8
79
0
in
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Years
2008/2009 only a small
amount of sorghum was available to farmers. In 2006/07 more sorghum seeds were available in the
country. (Chart 3.5).
Chaert 3.6: Availability of Beans seeds in Tanzania 2005/06-2009/10
600
Beans seeds
seeds decreased from
233.83 tons in 2005/06
nothing
tons
in
Tonnes
The availability of Beans
to
513.7
500
400
300
200
233.83
100
56.12
0
0
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
Years
2009/10. This situation
19
0
2008/2009
2009/2010
indicates that farmers in 2009/10 used their own beans seeds to grow beans. In 2006/07 more
beans seeds were available in the country. (Chart 3.6).
Paddy seeds
The availability of Paddy seeds increased from 225.6 tons in 2005/06 to 784.93 tons in 2009/10. This
change is equivalent to 248% increase of paddy seeds that were available to farmers. However in
2007/08 only a small amount of paddy seeds were available in the country. (Chart 3.7).
Tonnes
Chart 3.7: Availability of Paddy seeds in Tanzania 2005/06-2009/10
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
784.93
225.6
220
149.52
30
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
Years
20
2009/2010
4.0 RAINFALL:
The country received the highest rainfall in 2006 but went on into a decline for three consecutive
years (2007 -2009) and declining even further below the amount of rainfall experienced in 2005.
(Chart 4.1).
Chart 4.1: Total Rainfall (mm) in Tanzania: 2005 - 2009
60000.0
55653.2
50000.0
40694
(mm)
40000.0
38248.3
32433.5
30000.0
24133.7
20000.0
10000.0
0.0
Year
Year 2006 experienced exceptionally heavy rainfall. The 8 stations which received highest rainfall in
mm were Amani 2,643.2 mm or 4.7%, followed by Tukuyu 4.5%, Bukoba 4.2%, Lyamungo 3.9%,
Mahenge 3.9% , Matangafu 3.7%, Zanzibar 3.6% and Pemba 3.5%. Combined, they accounted for a
third of the total rainfall recorded in all 41 stations that year.
Even with the heavy downpour of 2006, the 7 stations which received lowest rainfall in mm were
Dodoma 554.7 mm or 1%, followed by KIA 1.3%, Iringa 1.3%, Hombolo 1.3%, Singida Agric. 1.5%,
Uyole 1.5% and Ilonga 1.6%. Combined, they accounted for less than 10% of total rainfall recorded
in all 41 stations that year.
For the same year, most
was
December
followed
(10259.1mm),
recorded
in
12000.0
(10471.2mm)
by
10471.2 10259.1
10000.0
April
November
(7783.3 mm), and March
7783.3
8000.0
(mm)
rainfall
Chart 4.2: Monthly Rainfall Distribution for 2006 Year with
Highest Rainfall in mm (2005 - 2009 period)
7014.3
6000.0
4871.4
3877.7
4000.0
(7014.3 mm). Least rainfall
2000.0
was recorded in July (794.1
0.0
3281.3
3245.8
1971.3
1084.6
mm) followed by September
Months (2006)
(999.1 mm), August (1084.6
21
999.1
794.1
mm) and June (1971.3 mm). (Chart 4.2)
A graphical comparison of monthly rainfall in mm (Chart 4.3) for two years 2006 and 2008 revealed
that there was a uniformity of monthly patterns whether it was a year with much rainfall (2006) or
less rainfall (2008). Starting in February (2006), rainfall increased and reached its highest peak in
April and fallen down to its lowest level in July/August/September. From October there was a
moderate increase of rainfall and reached its peak in December/January. A monthly comparison of
rainfall for each year
the
period
of
2005-2009,
shows
the
pattern
same
except
for
2009
which had missing
data
September
12,000
Rainfall (mm)
for
Chart 4.3: Monthly Comparisons of Rainfall (mm) from Year 2005 to
2009 in Tanzania
10,000
8,000
6,000
2005
4,000
2006
2,000
2007
-
2008
from
2009
to
Months
December.
22
5.0 COOPERATIVES
5.1 Status of SACCOS in Tanzania 2005/06 -2009/10
In 2005 SACCOS status by considering some variables namely number of SACCOS , SACCOS
Membership, Shares and Loans issued, Tanzania had a total number of 3,400 SACCOS with a total
number of 5,206 SACCOS memberships. This increased up to 5,332 SACCOS and a total number
of 820,670 memberships in 2009/10.The increase in number of SACCOS is equivalent to 56% while
the increase in SACCOS memberships is equivalent to 15663%. This indicates that more people
have joined SACCOS in the country. (Chart 5.1 and 5.2).
Chart 5.1: Number of SACCOS in Tanzania 2005 - 2009
Number of SACCOS
6,000.0
5,332.0
5,000.0
4,524.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
3,469.0
3,400.0
2,028.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Years
900,000.0
800,000.0
700,000.0
600,000.0
500,000.0
400,000.0
300,000.0
200,000.0
100,000.0
0.0
820,670.0
758,828.0
590,163.0
291,344.0
2009
2008
2007
2006
5,206.0
2005
Number of Membership
Chart 5.2: SACCOS Membership in Tanzania
2005 - 2009
Years
Shares for SACCOS increased from 13,169.5 million Tsh in 2005 to 33,529.6 million Tshs in 2009.
This is equivalent to 154.6% increse. Loans issued to SACCOS members increased from 54,140.1
23
million Tshs in 2005 to 383,564 million Tshs in 2009. This increase is equivalent to 608% change.
(Chart 5.3).
Chart 5.3: SACCOS Share and Loans issued in
Tanzania 2005 - 2009
450,000.0
400,000.0
383,564.0
Tshs million
350,000.0
300,000.0
250,000.0
Shares(Tshs Million)
202,722.6
200,000.0
Loans issued (Tshs
Million)
150,000.0
115,106.8
100,000.0
54,140.1
34,340.8
33,529.6
24,218.1
18,240.2
13,169.5
13,116.2
50,000.0
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
5.2 Status of SACCOS in Regions 2005-2009
For individual regions in the country, number of SACCOS, SACCOS memberships, Shares and
Loans issued varied from one region to another and across years as follows:
5.2.1 Number of SACCOS
In 2005, Dar es Salaam region indicated to have more number of SACCOs (237) than other regions
in the country. Rukwa region indicated to have less number (23) than other regions. (Chart 5.4).
TANGA
SINGIDA
TABORA
SHINYANGA
RUVUMA
PWANI
RUKWA
MWANZA
MTWARA
MBEYA
MOROGORO
MARA
MANYARA
LINDI
KILIMANJARO
KIGOMA
KAGERA
IRINGA
DSM
DODOMA
250
200
150
100
50
0
ARUSHA
Number of SACCOS
Chart 5.4: Number of SACCOS by Region 2005
Regions
In 2009 Mwanza region indicated to have a large number of SACCOS (619) in the country while
Ruvuma indicated the lowest number of SACCOS (98)in the country. (Chart 5.5).
24
Number of SACCOS
Chart 5.5: Number of SACCOS by Region as of May 2009
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Regions
5.2.2 SACCOS Membership
In 2005, Kilimanjaro region indicated to have a large number of membership (63,047) and Rukwa
region with a least number of memberships (1,474). (Chart 5.6).
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
ARUSHA
DSM
DODOMA
IRINGA
KAGERA
KIGOMA
KILIMANJARO
LINDI
MANYARA
MARA
MBEYA
MOROGORO
MTWARA
MWANZA
PWANI
RUKWA
RUVUMA
SHINYANGA
SINGIDA
TABORA
TANGA
Number of Membership
Chart 5.6: Number of SACCOS Membership by Region 2005
Regions
In 2009, Dar es Salaam
region indicated to have a large number of memberships (55,487) in the
country while Manyara region indicated the lowest number of membership (10,802). (Chart 5.7).
Number of Membership
Chart 5.7: Number of SACCOS Membership by Region as of May 2009
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Regions
25
5.2.3 Number of Shares and loans issued
Dar
Salaam
Chart 5.8: Number of Shares and Loans issued by Region as of May 2005
region
indicated
more
es
to
shares
have
of
3,662.6 million Tshs
than other regions
while Kigoma region
indicated the lowest
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
Shares (Tshs Million)
5000
0
Loans (Tshs Million)
ARUSHA
DSM
DODOMA
IRINGA
KAGERA
KIGOMA
KILIMANJARO
LINDI
MANYARA
MARA
MBEYA
MOROGORO
MTWARA
MWANZA
PWANI
RUKWA
RUVUMA
SHINYANGA
SINGIDA
TABORA
TANGA
2005
Tshs million
In
shares of 26.6 million
Regions
Tshs in the country.
(Chart 5.8).
In 2009 Dar es Salaam region indicated to have more shares of 12,658.4
regions while Singida region indicated least shares of
million Tshs than other
119.0 million Tshs
For the case of Loans issued, in 2005 Dar es Salaam region received more loans of 25,236.4 million
Tshs while Kigoma region received the lowest loans of 79.3 million Tshs. In 2009 Dar es Salaam
received more loans of 70,360.7Million Tshs while Singida region received the lowest amount
1,253.6 million Tshs
Chart 5.9: Number of Shares and loans issued by Region as of
May 2009
140000
100000
80000
Shares (Tshs Million)
60000
Loans (Tshs Million)
40000
20000
0
ARUSHA
DSM
DODOMA
IRINGA
KAGERA
KIGOMA
K'NJARO
LINDI
MANYARA
MARA
MBEYA
M'GORO
MTWARA
MWANZA
PWANI
RUKWA
RUVUMA
S'YANGA
SINGIDA
TABORA
TANGA
Tshs million
120000
Regions
26
6.0
FOOD REQUIREMENT AND AVAILABILITY
During the months of May-June, 2011 the National Food Security Division (CMEW - Crop Monitoring
and Early Warning) carried out a regular preliminary food crop production forecast survey to
ascertain food crop harvest status for 2010/11 and the corresponding availability for 2010/11.
Interest was to determine the preliminary status concluded through capturing the effect of factors
affecting crop production that ruled over the growth stages from seed germination to maturity.
The exercise involved collection of the 2010/11 data and information from all the districts of mainland
Tanzania in collaboration with Regional Agricultural Advisors (RAAs) and the District Agricultural and
Livestock Development Officers (DALDOs). The process made use of regular tools that facilitate the
routine retrieval system while monitoring field crop performance as well as market performance in
respect of food availability and price signaling for early warning for food security. Accordingly and
appropriately, production forecast was made for 2010/11 crop season and food security forecast was
made for 2011/12 marketing year. The retrieval tools used focused at 1. Management based Snapshort information, 2. Crop target implementation status, 3. In-field crop phenological assessment, 4.
Pest prevalence assessment, 5. Market Food Availability assessment 6. Rainfall availability
assessment and 7. Vulnerability detection assessment.
An analysis covering these retrieval areas was undertaken and results are subject matter of this
report presented in different volumes. The results concentrate on national and regional level food
status with main highlights of regions and districts bearing vulnerable areas. For clarity purposes, we
are pleased to note that WRS11 and TSA2 have also been critically analyzed and results are also
part of this presentation as Volume 2 and Volume 3 respectively banking on field intimacy involving
MAFC experts and field teams at regional as well as at district levels.
From the analysis, it has been found that 12,810,818 tonnes of food crops was forecasted to be
available from farm production comprised of 6,786,605 tonnes of cereals3 and 6,024,217 tonnes of
non-cereals4 (Table 1, Figure 1) and would meet national food requirement amounting 11,499,414
tonnes of food by 111 percent implying a 1,311,404 tonnes of surplus food (Table 1).
1
WRS1 is a weekly retrieval system tool that captures district level targets vs. implementation of area planted and expected production in
12 main food crops as compiled by DALDOs.
2
TSA is an analytical procedure that assesses snapshot stories summarising food crop performance, WRS1-5 and cash crop performance
as recorded by field level experts and concludes with field level perception of expected food situation. This analysis offers a good debate
ground linking between SSR and the local level expectations of food security situation appropriate for data dissemination seminars.
3 The cereal crops covered under CMEWS include maize, sorghum, millets, rice and wheat.
4 The non-cereals include pulses, cassava, banana and potatoes
27
Figure 1: Tanzania Preliminary Food Production Forecast by
Crop in 2010/11 (Proportions of 12,810,818 Tonnes)
Cassava
8%
Potatoes
13%
Maize
33%
SSR = 111%
Banana
12%
Sorghum
Millets 6%
Pulses
14%
2%
Wheat
1%
Rice
11%
28
Table 1: The 2009/10 Preliminary Food Crop Production versus Requirement, Gap/Surplus Analysis
and Self sufficiency Ratios at national level
Cereals
Production (Tonnes)
6,786,602
Requirement (Tonnes)
7,200,341
Gap/Surplus (Tonnes)
-413,739
SSR - Cereals (%)
Non-cereals
Production (Tonnes)
6,024,217
Requirement (Tonnes)
4,299,073
Gap/Surplus (Tonnes)
1,725,143
SSR - Non-cereals (%)
Total Food
94
140
Production (Tonnes)
12,810,818
Requirement (Tonnes)
11,499,414
Gap/Surplus (Tonnes)
1,311,404
SSR - Total (%)
111
An analysis of Carryover stocks (COS) shows that, on the eve of new marketing year a total of
787,908 tonnes food stock was carried over into 2011/12 marketing year of which 189,966 tonnes
was held in Nationa Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) premises while 203,988 tonnes was held by
private stockists and 393,954 tonnes was estimated as farm retention.
29