SUMMARY OF THE USA COR , CACOR, MILLENIUM INSTITUTE
WORKSHOP
USERS OF LONG-TERM FUTURES MULTIDISCIPLINARY MODELS.
Chairs: Anitra Thorhaug USA COR, Sheila Murray CaCor, John Shilling Millennium
Institute and USA COR
Founded by insights of Aurelio Peccei and Alexander King in 1968, the Club of
Rome, immediately inspired a series of differing multi-disciplinary, long-term
global studies. These all focused interactive scenarios joining governance and
human systems, with natural resource depletion, through economics,
industrialization, poverty, health, population, water, pollution, social issues, and
food production. These CoR models from North American modelers searched for a
more sustainable human pathway in the future. Where are we now in terms of use
of these models? Who, why, and how are these models being used? These models
form predictive analytics for many nations and groups seriously analyzing critical
problems of sustainability.
Prior to this workshop the US Association for the Club of Rome (USACoR) has
previously held events celebrating the 35th and 40th anniversaries of two earlier studies by
USACoR members: The Limits to Growth1, and Mankind at the Turning Point.2 We
celebrated the 40th anniversary of USA COR founding and the 35th anniversary of a
third study of a former USA CoR member, The Global 2000 Report to the President.3
which launched the Millennium Institute and T-21 Model (Gerald O. Barney , John
Shilling, Weishuang-Qu) . Three more models also by North American modelers featured
: 1.) by Jerome Clayton Glenn, who has created a user friendly comprehensive
assessment tool, has compared 132 models, and produces the State of the Future each
year; 2.) by Robert Hoffman and colleagues, What If Technologies, Canada and : 3.)
International Futures Model by Barry Hughes (Pardee Center for International Futures ,
University of Denver) , which has built advanced models based on the Mesarovic / Pestle
Model. Several users spoke representing problems and acheivements of use of the models
: Tapio Kannenin ( UN Secretary General Policy Office-retired , Anitra Thorhaug (Future
of the Western Hemisphere.)
At this workshop we focused on the groups of Users of the Models: how they use the
models, interpret them , learn by putting their information into them , learn from the readouts of models, and how the users interact with both the models and modelers. Our past
workshops focused on the models themselves. What the models can do for decision1
2
http://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf.
Mihaljo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, (1974). Mankind at the Turning Point. The Second Report to the
Club of Rome, New York: E.P. Dutton.
3
http://www.geraldbarney.com/G2000Page.html.
making , for information analysis, and for insight into the complex interaction of multiple
variables was examined.
Jerome Clayton Glenn focused on his Delphi Model, the xxxx and the 132 various global
models which he has compared. Dennis Meadows sent a series of comments about the
user results of Limits to Growth and its updated publications and his games, and how it
had helped the COR advance its messages about protecting the environment. Well-known
is the Meadow’s and Randers work on the Limits to Growth model (Globe 3) and book
written by Dana Meadows that addressed sustainability issues and had millions of books
sold in 38 languages. The outreach of the Global T21 model, extension to Sustainable
Development Goals and critical global issues was addressed by the Millennium Institute .
(Weishuang-Qu, Director of Modeling and Analysis, and John Shilling ).Robert
Hoffman, discussed “What IF Technologies Models and their Outreach: How the Users
Employ the Model.” “The Outreach of International Futures Model” by Barry Hughes
and David Bohl of the Pardee Center International Futures. Denver, Co. Tapio Kannenin
(former Policy Office Secretary General) discussed “Developing a new comprehensive
model on global sustainability: do we need it? If we do should we organize a globally
representative symposium of major modeling groups and major users as the next step?"
The follow up discussion with the 40 participatns where the models have been applied,
and the kinds of results they have generated and the after effects. The relations among
the main factors involved are complex, and it is often hard to get good enough data to
support the models. Dialogues with local experts in these areas if often used to learn
about the main relationships to be incorporated into the models. Different models had
different sets of priority issues and dealt with different levels of application, from local to
national to regional to global. They all provided very useful information about
sustainable development issues where they have been applied. One key issue discussed
was to what extent these models could be integrated into a more complete model, or
linked together to share their results and provide relevant inputs from one model as
inputs to another in order to get more comprehensive results. It was clear that this is
a complicated matter that needs much further discussion. It seems likely that there would
be benefits from integration or simultaneously multi-model useage , where and when
feasible. And sharing results in other cases would be very useful as a comparative effort.
. All the participants were very interested in pursuing these questions. Graeme Maxton,
Secretary General the International Club of Rome, and Anitra Thorhaug, of the USA
Club of Rome, both expressed strong interest in setting up a three day conference in the
near future to bring together these modeling groups to share their modeling approaches
user friendly features, specific information and work out ways to integrate, linkages,
and/or simultaneous usage of the models to find pathways for more wide-spread use of
these multi-disciplinary linkages for better foresight and forecasting for nations and
individuals globally and to acquire better predictive analytics from more comprehensive
results. The important sustainability messages from the modeling need to be better
delivered to the public and decision makers so much greater progress can be made in
policies and actions to protect the environment, end poverty and achieve sustainable
development. There was strong interest from all discussants in such a detailed
workshop.