COURS ED TUE 2013
Atmospheric synoptic and mesoscale activity and its variability in the present and future climate - a
clue for understanding observed and projected climate change
Olga ZOLINA
1. Atmospheric instabilities, forming atmospheric midlatitudinal eddies (cyclones), structure of
cyclones according to Beiekrnes (Bergen school) and Shapiro (NCAR School). 3 hours.
This block will include consideration of the basic governing equations, scaling and scale analisys of the
equations, determination of the dominant forces, introduction of the steering parameters (Rossby
deformation radii), consideration of the local forces in atmospheric gyres, analysis of different types of
atmospheric instability waves in different latitudes. Potentially this can be extended to the analysis of
wave solutions for different instabilities.
2. Phenomenology of mid-latitudinal atmospheric gyres, frontal systems, warm and cold conveyor
belts, water recycling, midlatitudinal atmospheric rivers. 3 hours.
This block will address the systematic presentation of the basics and recent developments in synoptic
climatology, basic definitions of cyclone structure, mechanisms forming the energy and water cycle
inside the gyre and analysis of major phenomena associated with cyclone activity in mid latitudes.
3. Representation of midlatitudinal cyclone activity in modern data and models, methods for
analysing cyclone activity. 3 hours.
This block will include detailed review of the present data sets and model simulations and their ability to
replicate atmospheric synoptic activity in mid and high latitudes. Specific attention will be paid to the
methods for cyclone tracking, uncertainties of these methods and their application to different data.
Methodological aspects will include numerical schemes for identification of cyclones, mapping
procedures, determination of the parameters of cyclone life cycle and advanced diagnostics, like cyclone
size analysis and tracer tracking in the cyclones.
4. Cyclone activity in the present and future climate and its connections to the major changes in
atmospheric circulation. 3 hours.
This block will include consideration of storm tracks, mechanisms steering the stability of stormtracks,
association of stormtracks with major circulation modes in the mid- and high-latitudinal atmosphere,
interaction of cyclones with the surface (orogrpahic and diabatic processes), Lee and Eady cyclogenesis.
Of a special interest will be presentation of the condensed results of the analysis of cyclone activity in
modern era reanalyses and scenario runs with climate models that will be discussed in the context of
the role of cyclone activity in climate variability and change. As a bonus track, cyclone activity on aquaplanet and in the atmosphere of Venus and Mars can be considered.
5. Tropical cyclones and ageostrophic eddies in the atmosphere. 3 hours.
Here I suppose to consider the balance of kinetic energy in atmospheric boundary layer in the tropics
and to show how the tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are formed due to the production of geostrophic
turbulence under the action of diabatic heating. Structure, major mechanisms of development and the
governing forces of tropical cyclones will be considered. Of a special interest will be analysis of the
tropicla cyclone statistics, changes in the trajectories and severity of storms, tropical-to-extratropical
transition in the present climate and under ansthropogeic forcing. Specific part will be dedicated to the
agestrophic gyres , like tornados and their link to the large-scale processes.