Projet FP6 ENSEMBLES, contribution IPSL,
Court résumé
L’IPSL est reponsable de 2 “ Deliverables” (cf. p. 119)
Del
.
No.
4.1.
1
4.1.
2
Deliverable name
WP
no.
Characterisation of the 4.1
water vapour and cloud
feedbacks in response to
anthropogenic forcing.
Analysis of the results from 4.1
the first phase of the
Coupled Climate Carbon
Cycle
Intercomparison
project (C4MIP).
Lead
participant
Estimated indicative person-months
CNRSIPSL
4
R
CO
18
CNRSIPSL
4
R
PU
18
RT0: Project integration, management and promotion
1 jour / an !!!!
RT1: Development of the Ensemble Prediction System
25 per/mois les 18 premiers mois
WP1.1 (15, dont 10 pour le LGGE), WP1.2(0), WP1.3 (5), WP1.4 (5)
WP1.1: Construction of Earth System Models for ensemble climate prediction.
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Friedlingstein, Genthon)
WP1.3: Initialisation procedures for ocean component based on observed states.
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Vialard)
WP1.4: Assembly of a multi-model ensemble system, with common output, with installation on a
single supercomputer, where appropriate.
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Vialard)
CNRS-IPSL
During months 1-18, the IPSL will continue to develop the existing IPSL coupled model within the
PRISM framework. The existing biogeochemistry components (Orchidée for carbon cycle and Inca for
chemistry and aerosols) will be coupled to the physical model in order to provide interactive and
evolving distributions of the major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, O3) and aerosols (BC,
sulphur) (WP 1.1). IPSL, in collaboration with CERFACS, will create initial conditions for OPA with
variational assimilation, using a combination of in situ and altimeter data (WP1.3) with the aim of
achieving D1.3 and M1.1. These initial conditions will be used to produce seasonal-to-decadal
hindcasts (D1.4) with the coupled model IFS-OPA installed at ECMWF (WP1.4).
During months 1-18, CNRS-IPSL will contribute to the final development and testing of the IPSL
earth system model (deliverable D1.1). Specifically, CNRS-IPSL will work toward coupling the
LGGE dynamic ice sheet model to the IPSL model. A plug-in interface will be used to keep the ice
sheet component portable. The in-line ice sheet component in the IPSL model will address the
response of ice sheets to climate change and their contribution to sea-level and fresh-water input to the
oceans, including feedbacks (RT4).
Beyond 18 months, CNRS-IPSL will achieve the coupling of the physical and biogeochemical
components, in close collaboration with the other institutions developing similar ESMs. Evaluation
will use test case simulations under various emission and climate scenarios. The model will be
distributed within the MODIPSL framework in order to ensure easy access for users from other WPs.
The ocean data assimilation tasks (WP1.3) will be continued. In addition, a perturbation strategy for
ensemble forecasting using the optimal perturbation method will be investigated (WP1.4).
There is no contribution of LGGE to RT1 beyond month 18
RT2A: Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change
scenarios
24 per/mois les 18 premiers mois
WP2A.2 (12), WP2A.3 (12)
WP2A.2: Creation of multi-model hindcasts for the 20th Century, including variations in
external forcing
Participants r: CNRS-IPSL (Dufresne)
WP2A.3: Creation of multi-model climate change scenarios for the 21st Century that exploit the
probabilistic nature of the multi-model ensemble system
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Dufresne)
CNRS-IPSL
During months 1-18 IPSL will perform simulations of 20th century (i) with the IPSL-CM4 coupled
model (atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-ice) (ii) with the atmospheric GCM (LMDz-ORCHIDEE), for
various natural and anthropogenic forcings (WP2.2). For the 21 century, IPSL will produce ensemble
simulations with the coupled IPSL-CM4 climate model (OAGCM) with various IPCC-SRES
scenarios, and will performed a coupled climate-carbon simulation with one of the scenarios. Time
slice runs will be performed with the atmospheric GCM coupled to a chemistry model, to address the
effect of climate change on atmospheric composition. (WP2.3)
Beyond month 18, IPSL will perform simulations with the Earth system model(ESM) developed in
RT1. The model complexity will be increased step by step (physical model, carbon cycle, land-use,
aerosols, chemistry). Simulation will be performed for the 20th century (WP2.2) adopting the common
set of boundary conditions and external forcings (WP2.2). Additional simulations, needed to evaluate
the different components of the system for RT5, and to evaluate the quality of the new components
introduced in the Earth system models will also be performed (WP2.2). IPSL will produce climate
scenarios for the 21st century with the ESM including the new components (WP2.3). These new
climate scenarios with the Earth System models and analyse them in RT4 for feedbacks and climate
variability studies and in RT6 for impact studies. Some of these simulations could be extended beyond
the 21st century to investigate the long term response of the Earth System.
RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and
change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events
6 per/mois les 18 premiers mois
WP4.0(1.5), WP4.1 (4)
WP4.0: Management of RT4
Leader: CNRS-IPSL (Herve Le Treut, Pierre Friedlingstein).
WP4.1: Feedbacks and climate surprises
Leader: CNRS-IPSL (Pierre Friedlingstein).
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Pierre Friedlingstein, Herve Le Treut)
CNRS-IPSL
During months 1-18, IPSL will provide effort in WP 4.0 to organize with UREADMM a workshop in
the first year of the project to discuss the key science issues for RT4, and to agree priorities for years
2-5. In WP 4.1, CNRS-IPSL will determine qualitatively and quantitatively the uncertainty of climate
change predictions associated with the water vapor and cloud feedbacks in the models. CNRS-IPSL
will start the analysis of results from the first phase of the Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle
Intercomparison project (C4MIP), where Climate models were coupled to land carbon cycle models to
simulate the 20th century trends and variability of climate and atmospheric CO2. In WP 4.4, CNRSIPSL will study the seasonal predictability of the intraseasonal convective and dynamical perturbations
in the Indo-Pacific region in current and future climates, IPSL will use the DEMETER simulations to
develop a diagnostic tool to analyse the variability of seasonal hindcasts of the tropical intraseasonal
oscillation in ensembles of a given model (link with WP5.3)
Beyond month 18, CNRS-IPSL will continue these activities, using the ENSEMBLES simulations
performed in RT2. In WP 4.1 CNRS-IPSL will characterize the temperature, water vapor, clouds and
radiation responses to anthropogenic climate forcings; IPSL will estimate ocean and terrestrial carbon
cycle sensitivity to climate change; land-use change impact on atmospheric CO2 and climate system
through biophysical feedbacks will also be evaluated; Ocean salinity and its impact on ocean
thermohaline circulation and NADW formation will be explored with existing OAGCMs simulations
over the 21st century and possibly the 3rd millennium. CNRS-IPSL will commence on estimating the
future changes in freshwater fluxes input to the ocean, essentially from melting of polar ice sheets. In
WP 4.4, CNRS-IPSL will select one or more models for their skill in the seasonal hindcast of the
intraseasonal oscillations and will analyse the seasonal predictability in current and future climates
using this (these) model(s)
RT5: Independent comprehensive evaluation of the ENSEMBLES
simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses
RT5: 15 per/mois les 18 premiers mois
WP5.2(9), WP5.3 (6)
WP5.2: Evaluation of processes and phenomena.
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Braconnot),
WP5.3: Assessment of forecast quality.
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (Duvel)
CNRS-IPSL
In months 1-18 IPSL will use DEMETER simulations to develop a diagnostic tool (based on the Local
Mode Analysis) to infer the skill of seasonal hindcasts in describing the intraseasonal oscillation in the
Indo-Pacific region. The objective is to develop an operational tool to assess the features and
predictability of the intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics. Using simulations performed in RT2A,
CNRS-IPSL will conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Asian monsoon interannual variability in
the ENSEMBLE simulations against observations. CNRS-IPSL will analyse and validate the
interannual and decadal variations of water vapor, clouds and radiation and their interactions in the
simulations produced by the ESMs for the 20th century. By using observations and meteorological
reanalyses, we propose to evaluate the feedback between sea surface temperature, surface wind,
convection and clouds and surface heat fluxes
Remaining time up to 5 years: Use of this tool to study the seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts of the global
ESMs. CNRS-IPSL will perform an analysis of the impact of systematic biases in ENSEMBLE
models on reproduction of the Asian monsoon and monsoon-ENSO relationships. CNRS-IPSL will
evaluate the capability of the ESM (in a step by step approach as described in RT2) to reproduce the
20th century (link with WP2.1) climate and biogeochemical trends at large scales.
RT6: Assessments of impacts of climate change
RT6: 0 per/mois les 18 premiers mois
WP 6.1 (0)
WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of
impacts and feedbacks.
Participants: CNRS-IPSL (de Noblet-Ducoudre)
CNRS-IPSL
After Month 18, CNRS-IPSL will study the impact of climate change and increased CO2 on land use,
at continental to global scale. Potential for feedbacks on the climate system will be assessed.
Implementation of impact models in the ESM will be initiated when necessary
Partner 3
CNRS-IPSL
FCF cost model
Personnel
Equipment
Travel
Consumables
Other costs
Overheads
Total
60 months
Requested
contribution
650 100,00
0,00
47 404,00
4 200,00
0,00
138 904,00
840 608,00
EC Own resources
644 170,00
0,00
46 241,00
4 200,00
0,00
138 904,00
833 515,00
18 months
Requested by
EC contribution
211 000,00
0,00
8 000,00
3 000,00
0,00
43 850,00
265 850,00
Own resources
208 817,00
0,00
8 000,00
3 000,00
0,00
43 850,00
263 667,00