Forecasting Dust Clouds
Adapting "Forecasting Dust Storms" for an international audience
(Does the title sufficiently differentiate this from the AFWA module?)
Things for Marianne to do:

Send script writing instructions

Send the AFWA script when it’s ready
Things for the rest so the team to do:

Everyone, please review this document and make sure that the section assignments are OK. If you said that
you’d contact someone about working on a section, please do so as soon as possible so we know the other
experts that we need to find.

Jochen: Do you need a template for the gallery or is it OK for you to use your cases template? (I think that’s
fine.)

Let me know when you expect to work on your sections.
AFWA OUTLINE [we plan to reuse as much as possible from this module]
Section 0. Goals and Objectives
Section 1. Scenario
Section 2. Introduction
Section 3. Physical Processes (Dust, Wind, Dispersion of Dust)
Section 4. Dust Source Regions [Global, Middle East and SW Asia]
Section 5. Synoptically-forced Dust Storms [Introduction – emphasis on Middle East, Prefrontal Events,
Dust Storms, Summer Shamal]
Section 6. Dust Storms Caused by Mesoscale Systems [Introduction, Gap Flow Dust Storms, Haboobs,
Inversion Downburst Dust Storms, Dust Devils]
Section 7. Climatology
Section 8. Satellite Detection of Dust
Section 9. Forecasting [Introduction / Observations, NWP Models, Dust Models]
Section 10. Summary
GENERAL NOTES

1
Roles and responsibilities
o
Nuno Moreira (Instituto de Meteorologia/EuMeTrain] doesn’t have the funding or time to serve as the
main content expert. He’ll work on specific sections but can’t assume responsibility for the overall script.
o
Rest of team: Tom Lee, Jochen Kerkmann (EUMETSAT), Jarno Schipper (EuMeTrain, for reviews)
o
EUMETSAT and EuMeTrain will supply MSG and MTG expertise and examples
o
Marianne Koenig is an expert on the aerosol product
Forecasting Dust Clouds
24 May 2010
o
Tom: Will you or someone at NESDIS or CIRA be simulating GOES-R data to represent US forecaster
needs? Someone will need to verify that the MODIS data still represent what forecasters will use in the
future
o
NOAA and Navy experts will provide additional content as will some international partners
o
COMET will help gather other international input, including US input

Nuno is available in June/July/Aug, Jochen from now until 10 July

The deadline for publishing the module was 1 Oct but will now be extended

Should we have a forecasting section or just intersperse cases throughout the model? How much of the
AFWA process is reusable?

We don’t need a special section on (quantitative) dust/aerosol products, integrate example products
throughout the module

Represent broad international impacts, events, and source regions but emphasize Africa and the Middle East
because they produce the most significant dust clouds
o

Cases:
o
o
2
Avoid content creep: We’re restricted in how much we add by the budget. The additions will focus
on dust impacts, the forecast process, and cases
How many do we need? What’s each one used for? What cases do we have vs. need to get?

Cover US, Argentina, China, Australia, and Central Asia? Start each with a short showcase
(include teasers to other sections); focus on a different issue or technique in each case

Identify SMEs from various regions who can contribute examples and brief information
about their regions

Should we follow an event in progress as it shifts from Meteosat to GOES? Would use
MODIS
Which cases are in the module vs. the gallery? Constrain the number of examples in the module
[gallery is more open-ended)

Five to ten richer cases to demonstrate the main teaching points plus the gallery

How should we link to the module from the gallery?
o
Focus on low-level and high-level dust clouds [levels diagnosis]
o
If we can get the date of a US dust storm, EUMETSAT can simulate a dust RGB
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o
Proportional emphasis on Africa will increase; remove or replace some of the Middle Eastern
examples with those from other regions
o
See end of document for case ideas
o
When requesting international case examples, ask for content related to the impacts of the event,
satellite products used, how impacts were assessed (before and after), what improvements they feel
are needed to improve forecasts, and the forecast process for the duration of the event (local
forecaster experience)

Monsoons: Go from Jan through the summer in Middle East and Africa. Low season: Oct, Nov, Dec. season
peak: March, May [where does this belong?]

Include “Did You Knows” for details beyond the core content (indicate with light bulbs)

Areas ripe for interactions: Forward trajectories

Resources:
o
Materials collected for the dust week and the actual lecture recordings. Does Nuno have them all?
o
EUMETrain Dust module
o
EUMETSAT has published 40 cases on dust, plus PPT training (150 slides)
o
ASMET 5 contains two dust cases from West Africa
INTERNATIONAL OUTLINE [NESDIS/EUMETSAT]
SECTION 1: DUST IMPACTS Nuno

Begin with a scenario, preferably the Sydney Australia event [22 Sep 09], then discuss impacts. Note that
session 1 of dust week has other examples

Change the section title to Societal and Environmental Impacts?

Discuss how examples may be global, but impacts are quite local. Also discuss impacted regions, not just
locations of occurrence

Expand impacts to include such topics as cloud and precipitation processes [danny rosenfeld] and
microphysics (briefly mention in intro, expand upon more in the gallery?), hurricanes, summer monsoon
[reduces precipitation], dust as an aerosol, transportation (visibility, aviation, traffic), health (asthma,
meningitis), mineralization of oceans and land??, impact on hurricane formation & monsoon (India), climate
(see dust interactions with meteorology and climate figure from dust week, session 7; might link to changing
sources due to climate change, particularly Australia - ?), fertilized soil?, coral death?, health (paper from
Koren et. Al.), snowpack (dust layer impacts, e.g., melting faster and stability)
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Forecasting Dust Clouds
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
Use any YouTube dust videos?
SECTION 2: PHYSICAL PROCESSES Keep as is, using AFWA updates [JK will review it]

Creeping, saltation, suspension; advection & diffusion; sedimentation and deposition

Wet scavenging; behaviour of dust clouds (dust week, session 3). Isn’t this new info to cover? We didn’t
assign it to anyone.
SECTION 3: DUST SOURCE REGIONS See updated AFWA version. SECTION NEEDS TO BE ASSIGNED! Can we
involve Annette since she’s collecting dust source info?

Should we combine this section with climatology?

Include TOMS dust source map

Focus on the Bodele Depression [Chad], West Iraq, Iran and Gobi (also see sessions 1 & 2 of dust week)

Discuss the influence of droughts, occasional flooding, impact of desertification and drying of lakes (e.g.
Chad lake, Aral lake)

Show dust hot spots as defined by TOMS (Englestaedter paper) or from Paul Ginoux (figure from Perez);
discuss dust sources described in the paper from Prospero et al. (was it referenced in session 1 of dust
week)?

Show finer-scale dust hot spots as defined by MSG ( Anette, Tom Lee, NRL)

Decide which cases to use
SECTION 4: DUST CLIMATOLOGY WHO’S RESPONSIBLE? Can Keith Everett of AFWA be involved? Check the
AFWA update to see how much needs to be added/changed. See sessions 6 and 7 of dust week for content.

Combine this section with dust source regions?

Discuss potential regions versus percentage of storms

Cover the main dust season, highlight seasonal and diurnal cycles

Mention the number of dust clouds in the tropics

TOMS AAI climatology, annual & seasonal maps

Average annual aerosol map -> seasonal -> diurnal -> high resolution dust hot spot identification

Seasonal and diurnal variation
-
4
Seasonal cycle due to: (a) seasonal change of large-scale pressure gradients (trade winds), and (b)
thunderstorm season [e.g. Sahel]
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-
Diurnal cycle with heating of boundary layer (case study November 2009 Bodele Depression by HP
Roesli (Image of the Month) JOCHEN
SECTION 5: DUST DETECTION BY SATELLITES Tom and Nuno

The EU team wants to move this section up ahead of the synoptic/mesoscale sections

Cover satellite detection, diagnosis, and monitoring

VIS / IR (single channel) – Tom See session 3 of dust week. Important to point out the viewing angle effect
in VIS imagery (dust not very visible during midday in VIS). Include some material from session 4 of dust
week.

RGBs (split window difference, MODIS Miller product, MSG) – Nuno [primary], Tom
o

Use Session 5 of dust week from Nuno and material from the COMET and EumeTrain RGB modules
Issues
o
Cover both LEO and GEO satellite uses, simulate future GOES-R data to cover US forecaster needs
o
Discuss how to combine the strengths of the various data
o
Discuss the similarities to ash detection [ash higher up cause starts higher up; if at similar height to
dust, are very similar], see recent Iceland case - Nuno
o
Differentiate dust from smoke; examples: CA and Greek fires - Tom, Nuno
o
Height estimation of dust clouds with comparison to Callipso - Tom, Nuno

o
5
Case 19 March 2010 over the Middle East, and if possible, the Algeria case, 9 March 2007

Jochen gave us annual images

Tom: Overlay RGB with Callipso track? Jochen will help create the product
Use a few data types:
o
Cover the most significant current and future operational derived products
o
Ideas for presenting the data

High res VIS -> true color MODIS -> dust RGB

IR techniques -> solar -> retrieved products

VIS -> IR -> Products (aerosol product for MSG?)
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o

EUMETSAT wants to promote a pure IR technique and dust RGB (day and night),
although in daytime, there are limitations…need to include a solar component.

Level and thickness of the dust, and possibly the height
Prepare forecasters for GOES-R and MTG

What products will GOES-R have? Existing versus future products

Simulated RGB: Use two to three examples (high res VIS, true color MODIS, dust RGB) using
MODIS data that can simulate GOES-R data
o
??: AVHR 16 channels, no additional channel for dust capabilities … same as MSG?
o
Note: Can overlay ECMWF data using the IDV
SECTION 6: SYNOPTIC DUST OUTBREAKS – Jochen

Note: Most dust clouds in the Middle East are synoptic in origin

Cover pre/post frontal and trade winds. Also dust crossing the Atlantic?
o
Pre /post frontal: Riyadh 10 March 2009, Bulgaria, Turkey 22-23 March 2008 (coloured rain), Middle
East 10-14 Feb 2009, Algeria 9 March 2007
o
Trade winds: Middle East 17 June 2008, North Africa 5-9 March 2006, North Africa 19-21 March
2010
o
Dust crossing the Atlantic [include this?] : 6-8 March 2004, 20-26 June 2007, 1-3 Aug 2009 [Sun
Wong - SAL expert, CIMSS. Jeremy will send papers…)
SECTION 7: MESOSCALE DUST OUTBREAKS – Jochen

Present this section after satellite detection? Make it more global [Africa, Asia, Southern Hemisphere e.g.,
Australia]

Mesoscale dust storms are more common in Africa… connected to convection in Sahara from Sudan to
Senegal (Sahel)

Cover haboobs, gap winds and downslope winds [leave out dust devils]
6
o
Focus on haboobs [dust-ridden outflow boundaries] more than gap winds
o
Haboobs, possible cases: Sahel 8 May 2005 (D. Rosenfeld). Sudan 29-30 April 2007 (night-day color
difference). West Africa 29 July 2008 (5-min rapid scans, intersection of boundaries). Morocco from
HP Roesli (with blended HRV/Dust RGB)
o
Gap winds, possible cases: Tokar gap 25 June 2003, Oman gap case 1 Feb 2008, Ennedi-Tibesti gap
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o
Downslope, possible cases: Algeria 23 Feb 2006, Argentina 21 July 2009, see if China case is available
SECTION 8: DUST FORECASTING WITH MODELS Jochen will contact Carlos Perez to discuss the possibility of his
working on this section. NASA GISS. WHAT ABOUT WMO SDS-WAS program? MW: Send Jochen the AFWA
section when done


Notes:
o
If we create a EU forecast process, how applicable will it be to US and other non-EU forecasters?
What are the implications for NESDIS?
o
Update/expand the current module [it focuses on DoD models]
o
NWP models can quantify the content of dust; they’re generally available now
o
Focus on low-level and high-level dust clouds [levels diagnosis]
o
Connect satellite data to NWP data whenever possible
o
Treat identification and trajectory forecasting in more depth, cover techniques and challenges in
more depth
o
Present a ‘European’ dust forecast process (include examples of processes used by other
organizations in the mini cases?)
o
Focus on Hysplit (who will write this?]
o
What’s this about? African examples, how do we do model reruns?
o
Include Spanish and Chinese model wind forecasts
o
Trajectory and dispersion modeling [Hysplit, a trajectory model]
Forecasting periods
o
Nowcasting (extrapolation) 0-12 h. Cairo 22 Jan 2004 and/or Riyadh 10 Mar 2008 – Jochen
o
Medium and long range [AFWA ]

The WMO SDS-WAS programme (dust forecasting & verification), Europe and China nodes
[get info from WMO site]

Different dust models (ECMWF, US ...]

Dust forecasting with forward trajectories (e.g. Hysplit)
SECTION 10: REFERENCES AND LINKS
SECTION 11: DUST CASE GALLERY – Jochen (MW: Send him a template to use)
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Forecasting Dust Clouds
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
Include various dust products (SAL, NWC SAF flag, aersol products). For each example, show a product or
two and provide a very short description.

Make the gallery extensible for future additions [not part of the regular module]. Decide how to link to it!

Include cases for different sources and impacts, extreme events, curious cases, different appearance/colours
(include unusual colours)

Jochen gathered 365 days of images (Jun 09 to Jun 10). Include as a set of browsable daily RGB images
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
MODULE PURPOSE AND DESCRIPTION (from initial project plan): In 2003, the COMET Program published
Forecasting Dust Storms. This module focuses on a difficult forecasting problem with severe impacts in many
regions of the world, including impacts to aviation. While the module has seen wide usage and much acclaim for
its scientific content and demonstration of forecasting techniques, EUMETSAT has funded the COMET Program
to adapt this module for a broad international audience, and to include training in the use of newly available
satellite products, NWP models, and forecast processes. The module will be renamed "Forecasting Dust Clouds"
to better represent its treatment of the broad environmental impacts of dust transport and its treatment of
both low level and high level dust clouds. Module content covering physical processes of dust transport will
likely remain unchanged.
We will attempt to represent broad international impacts, events, and source regions, but the module will
continue to emphasize Africa and the Middle East because they produce the most significant dust clouds.
Proportional emphasis on Africa will increase, while some of the many Middle Eastern examples in the current
module will be replaced by those from other regions. To include a broader set of examples, we will identify
SMEs from various regions who can contribute examples and brief information about their regions and dust
forecasting capabilities and procedures. Countries may include the US, Chile or Argentina, China, and Australia.
We expect to include 5 to 10 richer cases within the module to demonstrate the main teaching points, but also a
gallery of additional examples with only a couple products each and very short written descriptions. The Gallery
may be made an extensible component for future contributions.
GOALS: The primary goal is to improve skills in detecting and forecasting dust transport
 Use LEO and GEO satellite products, such as RGB products and high-resolution visible imagery, to detect
the presence of dust clouds.
 Use satellite products to diagnose the level of dust clouds.
 Use NWP model output for forecast dust trajectories.
 Describe dust cloud climatology for the most critical regions of the world.
 Use satellite and other meteorological data to follow the progression of a dust cloud event.
 Describe human and environmental impacts of dust clouds, including those to aviation operations.
POTENTIAL CASES
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
Africa to West Antilles example 2009-06-26 Dust Cloud Lesser Antilles
oiswww.eumetsat.org/WEBOPS/iotm/iotm/ (look for paper on impacts)

Are these tied to particular cases or just things to discuss:
o
Impacts on cloud visible appearance
o
IR useful day and night

12 02-2009 Dust Middle East

2008 10-09 Dust Wall Nigeria (low level dust)

Dust Nigeria Mali convection

2008-03-23 Dust Greece Turkey Russia (colored rain)high level dust cloud

Visible over dry land doesn’t work. Visible better over ocean.

2007-6-26 Dust Cloud Lesser Antilles (dust over Atlantic, convection triggered in Antilles) for global example
(20 to 26 June)

2007-04-30 Mesoscale trigger over Sudan, dark color at night, gets brighter (easier to detect thin clouds than
thick clouds) look for contribution of the surface, Dust squalls

2006-03-08 Dust Africa (synoptic system in north Africa, convergence line over southern west Africa)

2005-01-05 Dust Bodele

Dust Wind Tracers over the central Sahara (5 January 2005) channeling (on Website)

Dust Microphysics RGB colour shades of semi-transparent dust clouds

2008-2-2 (another Saudi case moving off the peninsula)
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