2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
V. C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
JUNE 22, 2009
MOHC is forecasting a below normal season
Overview
The Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) is forecasting a below normal North Atlantic Hurricane Season (See
table 1). According to their forecast issued June 18, the most likely number of named storms for the period June to
November 2009 is 6 with a range of 3 to 9. Compared with the other forecasts issued for the season, this is an outlier;
however, this group has been spot on over the past few seasons. Meanwhile, Mark Saunders and Adam Lea of the
Tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) have updated their forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season and have reduced
the number of named storms previously forecasted. They are now expecting 11 named storms as compared with 15,
which were forecast in April 2009 (See table 1). This number is consistent with all other forecasts except the one from the
MOHC.
Forecast Source
NOAA
CSU
TSR
Forecast Date
May 21, 2009
June 2, 2009
April 7, 2009
June 4, 2009
April 7, 2008
June 18, 2009
Tropical Storms
9 – 14
11
12
11
15
6 (3 – 9)
Hurricanes
4–7
5
6
5-6
7- 8
-
Major Hurricanes
1–3
2
2
2- 3
3-4
-
MOHC (range)
59-yr Antigua
1950 - 2008
0.6
0.4
0.2
Climatology1
59-yr Atlantic
1950 - 2008
10.8
6.2
2.7
Climatology
30-yr Atlantic
1979 - 2008
11.8
6.4
2.6
Climatology
Table 1: Comparison of 2009 Hurricane Season Forecasts. 1Storms passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua.
Forecasts include those issued by Colorado State University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC). The MOHC forecast is issued
for the July–November period.
The TSR forecast has decreased sharply since early April due to a large unexpected cooling of the North Atlantic main
development region (MDR) sea surface temperature and to a larger-than expected warning of the Pacific sea surface
temperatures.
The 2008 Hurricane Season produced 16 named storms of which 8 became hurricane, including 5 major hurricanes. This
was consistent with the forecasts issued by all four organizations mentioned above. The science behind the outlook is
rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with
similar conditions.
Dale Destin
Climatologist Ag.
iweatherreport@gmail.com