Tobacco Trends 2007
A brief update on monitoring indicators
Citation: Ministry of Health. 2008. Tobacco Trends 2007: A brief update on
monitoring indicators. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Published in June 2008 by the
Ministry of Health
PO Box 5013, Wellington, New Zealand
ISBN 978-0-478-31759-6 (online)
HP 4586
This document is available on the Ministry of Health’s website:
http://www.moh.govt.nz
Author
This report was written by Sharon Ponniah, Advisor (Tobacco Research), Public Health
Intelligence, Ministry of Health.
Tobacco Trends 2007
iii
Foreword
Tobacco continues to be a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in New
Zealand, accountable for an estimated 5000 deaths every year. Smoking is a major
contributor to health inequalities, and monitoring behaviours relating to tobacco use is
vital in order to inform the development, implementation and evaluation of tobacco
control policies and initiatives over time.
Tobacco Trends is an annual publication reporting key indicators of tobacco use that
are monitored every year. As the prevalence of smoking over 2005 and 2006 has been
reported in depth in Tobacco Trends 2006 and the New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey
Report 2006, these statistics will not be covered in great detail here. Instead the
current publication is a brief update of indicators collected from other data sources for
the prevalence of smoking, consumption and supply, and youth tobacco use.
The data presented in this report have been drawn from the New Zealand Tobacco Use
Survey, the New Zealand Census, Statistics New Zealand data on tobacco products
released for consumption, annual tobacco returns submitted to the Ministry of Health by
the tobacco industry, the Year 10 Survey and the ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd omnibus survey.
Comments on this report should be sent to Public Health Intelligence, Ministry of
Health, PO Box 5013, Wellington.
Dr Barry Borman
Manager (Epidemiologist)
Public Health Intelligence
iv
Tobacco Trends 2007
Contents
Executive Summary
vii
Prevalence of Smoking in New Zealand
1
The New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey 2006 and the New Zealand Census 2006
Changes to prevalence over time
1
4
Tobacco Use and Youth
6
Smoking and District Health Boards
8
Consumption and Supply
13
References
14
Appendices
Appendix A: Methodology
Appendix B: ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd Data
Appendix C: Consumption and Supply
15
17
20
Tobacco Trends 2007
v
List of Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table B1:
Table B2:
Table C1:
Table C2:
The prevalence of smoking by age group (%): Census 2006 compared with NZTUS
2006
Prevalence of daily smoking (%) in Year 10 students, by sex and ethnicity, 1999–2006
Prevalence of regular smokers (%), by gender and DHB, 2006
Prevalence of regular smokers (%), by ethnicity and DHB, 2006
Prevalence of regular smokers (%), by age group and DHB, 2006
Prevalence of daily smoking (%) in Year 10 students, by DHB, 1999–2006
Prevalence of smoking (%) (15+ years), by tobacco product category and age, 2006
and 2007 combined
Prevalence of cigarette smoking (%) (15+ years), by age, sex and ethnicity, 1983–
2007
Tobacco products released for consumption in New Zealand, 1970–2006
Annual tobacco returns, 1997–2006
3
7
9
10
11
11
17
18
20
21
List of Figures
Figure 1:
Figure 2:
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
Figure B1:
vi
Prevalence of current/regular smokers (%), by age group: Census 2006 compared with
NZTUS 2006
Prevalence of current cigarette smoking in those aged 15+ years (%), 1976–2007
Prevalence of daily smoking in Year 10 students, by sex, 1999–2006
Tobacco consumed per adult (15+ years): tobacco products released (1970–2006)
and annual tobacco returns (1997–2006)
Prevalence of cigarette smoking (%), by ethnicity, 1990–2007
Tobacco Trends 2007
4
5
6
13
19
Executive Summary
The ability to produce reliable national estimates of the prevalence of smoking in New
Zealand continues to grow every year. Three national data sources were available in
2006: the New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey, ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd data on time trends
and the New Zealand Census. This document provides a brief update using these data
sources and others previously presented in Tobacco Trends.
The 2006 Census provides the most up to date and reliable representation of smoking
in New Zealand. In 2006 the prevalence of smoking from the Census for the population
aged 15+ years was 20.7%. Information on time trends from 1976 indicates that
overall, though the prevalence of smoking has slowed, it continues to decrease
gradually over time. Smoking among Year 10 students continued to decline as well
between 2005 and 2006: from 10.7% to 10.1% among girls and from 7.2% to 6.2%
among boys.
Compared with 2005, tobacco consumption per capita decreased by around 1.6% to
1016 cigarette equivalents per capita (in the population aged 15+ years) in 2006.
The Census was a key source of information in 2006 for calculating actual population
estimates and robust breakdowns by District Health Board. Analyses from the Census
indicate strongly that smoking is a bigger problem in some regions than in others.
Tobacco Trends 2007
vii
Prevalence of Smoking in New Zealand
The prevalence of smoking in New Zealand has been measured through various
sources over time. In New Zealand, prevalence measures refer to smoked tobacco
products only – that is, manufactured cigarettes (also referred to as ready-made, tailormade and factory-made cigarettes), roll-your-own tobacco, cigars, cigarillos and pipes.
In 2006 smoking prevalence was measured from three sources: the New Zealand
Tobacco Use Survey (NZTUS), the New Zealand Census 2006 and the annual
ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd omnibus survey.
An analysis of smoking prevalence based on NZTUS data has been previously reported
in depth in Tobacco Trends 2006 (Ministry of Health 2006) and the New Zealand
Tobacco Use Survey Report 2007 (Ministry of Health 2007). Full copies of these
reports may be downloaded from the Ministry of Health’s website:
http://www.moh.govt.nz
The following section presents a comparison of the data from the NZTUS 2006 and the
Census 2006, and an update on changes in smoking prevalence over 2006 and 2007
from the ACNielsen omnibus survey.
The New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey 2006 and the New Zealand
Census 2006
Both the NZTUS and the Census were conducted in 2006. The NZTUS is a face-toface computer assisted survey of New Zealanders aged 15 to 64 years that is designed
to provide representative estimates of the New Zealand population. It was used in field
for the first time in 2006. The Census, on the other hand, is actually representative of
the New Zealand population; comparisons of NZTUS estimates with the Census enable
the accuracy and robustness of the NZTUS data to be checked.
Differences between the two data sources are outlined below. Variations in questions
and definitions of smokers in New Zealand in particular are highlighted as these affect
the rates that are reported. Data from both sources are also presented in order to
illustrate how these sources can produce different smoking rates and to explain those
differences.
Questions and definitions
Census 2006
Two questions were asked in the Census (1996, 2006) to determine smoking status.
1.
Do you smoke cigarettes regularly? (Yes / No)
2.
Have you ever been a regular smoker of one or more cigarettes a day? (Yes / No)
Tobacco Trends 2007
1
The Census definition of a regular smoker is someone who smokes cigarettes
regularly – that is, one or more cigarettes a day. An ex-smoker is defined as someone
who used to smoke regularly, but no longer does. The definition for someone who
never smoked regularly is a person who has never been a regular smoker. Smoking
of pipes, cigars and cigarillos, use of other smoked substances such as marijuana and
chewing of tobacco are not included in these definitions.
NZTUS 2006
The NZTUS 2006 asks three questions to determine prevalence.
1.
Have you smoked a total of 100 cigarettes in your whole life? (Yes / No)
2.
How often do you now smoke? (Don’t smoke now / At least once a day / At least
once a week / At least once a month / Less often than once a month)
3.
Did you ever smoke daily for a period of time? (Yes / No)
The NZTUS definition of a current smoker is someone who currently smokes tobacco
products; the definition includes daily and non-daily smokers. An ex-smoker is
someone who used to smoke tobacco products daily, but no longer does so. A never
smoker is someone who has never been a daily smoker and who has not smoked
more than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime. Smoking of marijuana and use of nonsmoked tobacco products are not included in these definitions.
Differences between the Census and the NZTUS in their definitions of smoking status
should be noted when interpreting data. The way smoking status is defined accounts
for variations in reported smoking prevalence rates between the two data sources. A
key difference between these two data sources is that the NZTUS reports current
smoking as the prevalence of daily and non-daily smokers, while the Census reports
smoking prevalence as daily smokers only. The second key point to note is the
divergence between never smoker (NZTUS) and never smoked regularly (Census): the
definition of never smoked regularly used by the Census includes non-daily smokers,
while the NZTUS does not. Again, this difference in definitions accounts for
discrepancies between rates.
Response rates and non-response rates
Census 2006
The 2006 Census reported a non-response rate of 5.2%.
NZTUS 2006
The NZTUS reported a response rate of 75.4%.
2
Tobacco Trends 2007
A comparison of smoking prevalence
Census 2006
The prevalence of smoking in the New Zealand population aged 15+ years, as reported
in the 2006 Census, is as follows: regular smokers 20.7%; ex-smokers 22.1%; never
smoked regularly 57.2%.
NZTUS 2006
The prevalence of smoking in the New Zealand population aged 15–64 years, as
reported in the NZTUS 2006, is as follows: current smokers 23.5%; ex-smokers 20.1%;
never smokers 52.2%.
Table 1 compares smoking prevalence as reported in the NZTUS 2006 and the Census
2006, broken down by age group. The 20.7% prevalence of regular smokers aged
15+ years presented by the Census increases to 23.0% when recalculated using the
age group of 15–64 years. This figure is comparable with the NZTUS figure of 23.5%
for current smokers and underlines the importance of using the same age range when
comparing data.
Essentially this comparison indicates that the prevalence of smoking among people
aged over 64 years is low and that including this age group in prevalence calculations
reduces the overall figure for prevalence.
Table 1:
The prevalence of smoking by age group (%): Census 2006 compared with NZTUS
2006
Age group
Regular/current smoker
Ex-smoker
Never smoker
Census
NZTUS
Census
NZTUS
Census
NZTUS
15–19 years
18.8%
26.8%
4.6%
5.5%
76.7%
70.3%
20–24 years
29.8%
30.3%
11.3%
11.9%
58.8%
51.4%
25–29 years
28.6%
28.7%
16.2%
9.8%
55.2%
55.7%
30–39 years
25.6%
25.6%
19.1%
19.8%
55.3%
49.5%
40–49 years
23.3%
22.1%
22.3%
21.6%
54.5%
51.6%
50–59 years
18.7%
17.1%
27.6%
30.6%
53.7%
47.7%
60–64 years
15.2%
15.6%
32.9%
39.8%
51.8%
41.6%
65+ years
8.0%
N/A
35.1%
N/A
56.9%
N/A
15+ years
20.7%
N/A
22.1%
N/A
57.2%
N/A
15–64 years
23.0%
23.5%
19.7%
20.1%
57.3%
52.2%
Source: Statistics New Zealand; NZTUS 2006
Note: The NZTUS only collects data from people aged 15 to 64 years; rates are therefore unavailable for
65+ years and 15+ years.
Tobacco Trends 2007
3
Figure 1 highlights the similarities of smoking prevalence rates coming from the Census
and NZTUS 2006 across all age groups. The only major discrepancy between the two
data sources is in the 15–19 year group. It is unclear why this discrepancy arises.
However, the NZTUS may facilitate more honest responses from young people as it
allows respondents the option of entering their responses privately and away from
supervising adults. This line of reasoning would suggest that the Census may
underestimate the true smoking prevalence in this age group.
Figure 1:
Prevalence of current/regular smokers (%), by age group: Census 2006 compared
with NZTUS 2006
percentage
35%
Census
NZTUS
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
15-19 years
20-24 years
25-29 years
30-39 years
40-49 years
50-59 years
60-64 years
15-64 years
age group
Source: Statistics New Zealand; NZTUS 2006
Note: The final pair of bars compares the Census 2006 and NZTUS 2006 rates for the New Zealand
prevalence of smoking (15–64 years).
Changes to prevalence over time
ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd collects information annually about the prevalence of smokers
through ongoing omnibus consumer surveys. The method of data collection differs
markedly from the approaches of the Census and the NZTUS (see Appendix A for
further information). The key advantage of this data source is that it provides
information about smoking prevalence from 1975, enabling long-term trends to be
monitored.
Figure 2 presents the time series for people aged 15 years and over from 1976 to the
third quarter of 2007.
4
Tobacco Trends 2007
Figure 2:
Prevalence of current cigarette smoking in those aged 15+ years (%), 1976–2007
Percent
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1976
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
Source: Statistics New Zealand; ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd
Notes:
1. In 2003 prevalence of smoking was collected for 18+ years.
2. Data for 2007 are for three quarters (January to September) only.
The prevalence of smoking in 2006 was 23.6% and in 2007 was 23.0%. As an overall
trend, smoking is decreasing gradually; minor variations in estimates are expected due
to statistical factors.
The prevalence figure for 2007 is the last data point that will be presented for this time
trend as ACNielsen is no longer collecting this information through this data source.
Time trends for monitoring smoking prevalence will be replaced with the NZTUS and
the New Zealand Health Survey in future.
Tobacco Trends 2007
5
Tobacco Use and Youth
A number of surveys in New Zealand collect information about youth and smoking. Key
surveys include the NZTUS and the Year 10 survey, which is part of a collection of
surveys in the New Zealand Youth Tobacco Monitor (see Ministry of Health 2006).
Information about youth smoking and smoking behaviours was reported in the Tobacco
Trends 2006 (Ministry of Health 2006) and the New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey
Report 2006 (Ministry of Health 2007). Data from the 2006 Year 10 Survey are
reported below.
Information about the methodology of the Year 10 Survey is included in the Appendix A.
A copy of the full report may be found on the Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) New
Zealand website: http://www.ash.org.nz
Figure 3:
Prevalence of daily smoking in Year 10 students, by sex, 1999–2006
Percent
18
Girls
Boys
2005
2006
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Source: Year 10 Survey 2006
The Year 10 Survey indicates that over 2005 and 2006 the prevalence of smoking
among Year 10 students (aged 14 to 15 years) decreased from 10.7% to 10.1% in girls
and from 7.2% to 6.2% in boys (see Figure 3). This trend is consistent with an ongoing
decrease in smoking prevalence in this age group since 2000.
Similarly, this survey indicates a continuing decrease in smoking prevalence across all
ethnic groups (see Table 2).
6
Tobacco Trends 2007
Table 2:
Prevalence of daily smoking (%) in Year 10 students, by sex and ethnicity,
1999–2006
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Māori
36.2
37.1
34.3
34.3
34.2
29.1
26.5
25.2
Pacific
23.0
19.4
19.5
17.6
18.1
13.2
14.5
13.0
Asian
5.9
5.1
3.2
3.9
4.5
2.9
2.9
2.0
13.1
12.2
11.4
10.8
9.8
7.2
7.3
6.1
Māori
23.6
24.2
19.1
16.8
19.4
16.2
14.0
13.5
Pacific
16.6
16.8
14.3
10.8
12.5
11.8
10.2
8.5
Asian
7.9
9.4
7.2
7.5
6.4
3.8
5.3
3.4
12.6
12.1
10.0
8.6
7.6
5.9
5.4
4.1
Girls
European/Other
Boys
European/Other
Source: Year 10 Survey
Tobacco Trends 2007
7
Smoking and District Health Boards
Information about smoking prevalence in District Health Board (DHBs) was initially
reported in the New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey Report 2006 (Ministry of Health
2007). For the current report, the data from the NZTUS have been replaced with
estimates from the 2006 Census (Statistics New Zealand). Estimates from the 2006
Census, broken down by DHB, are more accurate and representative of the New
Zealand population. Therefore these are the rates that should be used for reference.
They are presented in Tables 3–6 below.
Public Health Intelligence (PHI) is currently looking into statistical modelling techniques
to estimate prevalence for indicators not measured by the Census. The resulting
estimates will be updated and available at PHIOnline
(http://www.phionline.moh.govt.nz).
Further tables with smoking prevalence broken down by DHB can be found at the
Ministry of Health’s website (http://www.moh.govt.nz).
Table 3 presents the prevalence of regular smokers in all 21 DHBs stratified by gender.
DHBs with the highest smoking prevalence rates in New Zealand are Tairawhiti
(29.7%), Lakes (27.2%), Whanganui (26.3%), and Northland and West Coast (both at
25.7%).
Smoking prevalence rates broken down by ethnicity and age group are presented in
Tables 4 and 5.
8
Tobacco Trends 2007
Table 3:
Prevalence of regular smokers (%), by gender and DHB, 2006
DHB
Females (%)
Males (%)
Total (%)
Auckland
13.7
19.5
16.5
Bay of Plenty
22.4
22.3
22.3
Canterbury
17.4
20.2
18.8
Capital and Coast
16.2
18.6
17.3
Counties Manukau
20.4
24.0
22.1
Hawke’s Bay
24.6
25.0
24.8
Hutt
22.5
23.4
22.9
Lakes
28.0
26.4
27.2
MidCentral
22.2
23.2
22.7
Nelson Marlborough
17.9
20.9
19.3
Northland
25.6
25.7
25.7
Otago
18.2
20.8
19.4
South Canterbury
20.4
22.0
21.2
Southland
22.9
24.6
23.8
Tairawhiti
30.4
28.9
29.7
Taranaki
21.9
22.9
22.4
Waikato
22.1
23.3
22.6
Wairarapa
23.0
24.0
23.5
Waitemata
15.7
19.3
17.4
West Coast
25.2
26.2
25.7
Whanganui
25.9
26.7
26.3
New Zealand
19.5
21.9
20.7
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Note: Total percentage presented is for population aged 15+ years.
Tobacco Trends 2007
9
Table 4:
Prevalence of regular smokers (%), by ethnicity and DHB, 2006
DHB
Ethnic group (%)
Total
(%)
European
Māori
Pacific
peoples
Asian
MELAA
Other
ethnicity
Auckland
15.7
37.0
28.9
11.1
14.4
13.7
16.5
Bay of Plenty
19.1
43.1
34.6
10.9
20.5
15.6
22.3
Canterbury
18.5
40.2
30.1
12.9
15.0
16.3
18.8
Capital and Coast
16.1
35.6
31.9
11.0
16.9
14.5
17.3
Counties Manukau
20.0
46.8
30.3
9.6
15.5
16.0
22.1
Hawke’s Bay
21.9
45.1
29.8
12.9
19.3
18.1
24.8
Hutt
21.4
44.1
32.5
10.4
11.0
18.8
22.9
Lakes
22.9
45.0
35.4
15.7
19.1
18.4
27.2
MidCentral
21.4
42.5
32.8
12.6
15.9
18.6
22.7
Nelson Marlborough
18.8
39.7
34.1
15.7
19.1
15.5
19.3
Northland
21.5
43.5
39.5
14.5
18.7
17.6
25.7
Otago
19.5
36.7
28.3
10.0
13.7
17.2
19.4
South Canterbury
21.2
41.0
35.3
14.4
31.8
17.6
21.2
Southland
23.4
42.1
40.4
18.7
19.7
18.8
23.8
Tairawhiti
22.7
43.6
35.9
17.1
16.7
18.2
29.7
Taranaki
21.0
42.6
34.5
14.6
14.9
18.4
22.4
Waikato
20.5
42.7
30.2
11.0
12.5
17.4
22.6
Wairarapa
22.7
43.2
32.4
15.2
18.8
17.5
23.5
Waitemata
17.2
37.4
27.4
10.9
14.0
14.7
17.4
West Coast
26.1
41.4
35.8
10.8
33.3
20.9
25.7
Whanganui
23.1
46.6
34.0
13.8
14.3
21.4
26.3
New Zealand
19.4
42.2
30.3
11.1
15.1
16.6
20.7
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Notes:
1. The rates presented for ethnicity are prioritised response rates.
2. Total percentage presented is for population aged 15+ years.
3. MELAA stands for Middle Eastern, Latin American and African ethnic groups.
10
Tobacco Trends 2007
Table 5:
Prevalence of regular smokers (%), by age group and DHB, 2006
DHB
Age group (years) (%)
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–39
40–49
50–59
60–64
65+
15+
15–64
Auckland
12.3
22.1
21.3
17.9
17.6
15.6
13.1
7.7
16.5
17.7
Bay of Plenty
23.0
38.9
35.6
30.5
26.5
19.7
15.0
7.1
22.3
26.2
Canterbury
17.7
27.5
27.3
23.4
20.6
16.8
14.1
7.3
18.8
21.0
Capital and Coast
15.0
24.0
22.6
19.7
18.4
16.2
12.8
7.4
17.3
18.8
Counties Manukau
18.2
31.4
30.0
26.9
24.0
19.3
15.8
8.3
22.1
24.0
Hawke’s Bay
24.2
41.9
37.4
32.7
28.3
22.2
17.5
8.4
24.8
28.4
Hutt
20.9
36.4
33.7
27.0
24.9
20.6
16.1
8.6
22.9
25.4
Lakes
28.7
43.7
38.3
33.6
30.1
23.6
17.8
9.8
27.2
30.4
MidCentral
21.7
30.9
31.1
30.0
26.8
20.3
16.8
8.6
22.7
25.7
Nelson Marlborough
19.7
35.2
31.6
26.6
22.1
15.6
12.9
6.5
19.3
22.2
Northland
24.8
40.1
37.3
34.9
31.6
22.9
17.6
9.9
25.7
29.3
Otago
15.3
24.2
28.3
26.1
22.8
18.6
16.1
8.1
19.4
21.8
South Canterbury
22.2
39.6
34.1
30.6
24.4
18.8
15.4
7.9
21.2
24.9
Southland
26.2
39.2
33.9
28.2
24.6
21.0
18.0
8.6
23.8
26.7
Tairawhiti
29.0
45.6
40.5
38.5
33.7
27.8
19.4
9.8
29.7
33.5
Taranaki
21.1
35.3
32.7
29.9
26.3
19.8
16.8
8.0
22.4
25.7
Waikato
21.2
32.5
31.6
28.8
25.8
20.2
16.2
8.4
22.6
25.4
Wairarapa
23.8
39.1
36.2
32.6
28.9
21.3
15.9
9.0
23.5
27.2
Waitemata
13.8
25.4
24.2
21.2
19.3
15.7
12.7
7.0
17.4
19.1
West Coast
22.2
40.9
31.1
33.0
30.1
23.8
22.3
11.2
25.7
28.7
Whanganui
26.3
42.3
37.3
35.6
30.9
24.4
20.1
9.5
26.3
30.5
New Zealand
18.8
29.8
28.6
25.6
23.3
18.7
15.2
8.0
20.7
23.0
Source: Statistics New Zealand
In Table 5, rates for people aged 15 to 64 years have been presented alongside rates
for those aged 15+ years for comparative purposes. Of note is the general increase in
prevalence across all DHBs when the 65+ age group is excluded from the calculation.
Even on the basis of this analysis, however, the highest rates of smoking are still found
in Tairawhiti (33.5%), Whanganui (30.5%), Lakes (30.4%) and Northland (29.3%)
DHBs.
Table 6:
Prevalence of daily smoking (%) in Year 10 students, by DHB, 1999–2006
DHB
Year (%)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Auckland
12.6
10.6
11.1
7.7
8.3
4.3
5.9
3.2
Bay of Plenty
16.5
19.7
12.6
12.9
16.8
12.8
11.2
9.5
Canterbury
16.3
14.4
12.3
12.8
11.1
9.7
8.2
6.6
Capital and Coast
14.8
13.4
13.0
9.8
11.8
9.0
7.4
7.2
Counties Manukau
17.2
13.2
12.2
14.3
12.3
9.5
8.8
9.0
Hawke’s Bay
16.4
16.5
18.5
15.1
12.3
13.1
11.4
9.7
Hutt Valley
16.7
15.2
13.9
13.9
15.6
10.7
10.0
9.8
Lakes
21.1
26.2
20.0
21.0
18.5
12.1
11.7
15.6
Tobacco Trends 2007
11
MidCentral
15.3
13.6
12.8
10.7
Nelson Marlborough
13.9
15.1
10.5
9.7
Northland
17.0
18.4
16.8
14.5
Otago
15.8
18.1
12.5
12.9
South Canterbury
13.7
16.2
12.0
13.6
Southland
16.4
18.2
14.5
Tairawhiti
25.7
20.1
Taranaki
12.3
13.8
Waikato
13.9
Wairarapa
18.8
Waitemata
West Coast
Whanganui
13.2
9.9
12.2
13.4
8.9
8.1
10.3
7.6
15.9
14.2
13.3
12.2
12.5
9.2
10.4
8.1
12.8
10.4
7.3
5.8
16.2
18
11.6
12.9
9.6
20.3
21.2
19.6
19.2
10.5
12.7
15.0
7.4
10.6
7.2
9.8
7.2
15.6
15.3
14.2
13.2
10.3
8.6
8.2
16.7
16.3
16.5
13.3
13.4
10.8
6.2
14.5
12.8
11.9
9.5
8.7
7.0
6.0
6.2
22.1
16.1
17.7
11.9
13.4
12
7.1
8.8
18.8
19.5
10.9
13.1
14.7
14.9
9.8
17.5
Source: Year 10 Survey
Among youth aged 14 and 15 years (Year 10), the prevalence of smoking is much
lower than the prevalence among those aged 15–19 years (see Table 5). The marked
difference suggests a delay in smoking uptake. Table 6 highlights the general
decrease in prevalence across all DHBs for the younger age group.
12
Tobacco Trends 2007
Consumption and Supply
In New Zealand, tobacco consumption and supply are measured through annual
tobacco products released (Statistics New Zealand), annual tobacco returns (Laugesen
2007) and the NZTUS.
Information about the quantity of manufactured cigarettes and loose tobacco released
for consumption on the New Zealand market is collected and reported annually by
Statistics New Zealand. Information about the amount of tobacco products, including
manufactured and loose tobacco, sold to retailers each year is reported to the DirectorGeneral of Health annually by the tobacco industry, as required by the Smoke-free
Environments Act 1990.
As Figure 4 indicates, the downward trend in consumption of tobacco that has been
observed since the 1970s has slowed. The number of cigarette equivalents released
per adult decreased by around 1.6% over 2005 to 1016 per capita (in the population
aged 15+ years) in 2006, following on from a 3% increase in the previous year.
See Appendix C for further data around consumption and supply.
Figure 4:
Tobacco consumed per adult (15+ years): tobacco products released (1970–2006)
and annual tobacco returns (1997–2006)
Cigarette equivalents per adult
3500
Tobacco products released
Annual Tobacco returns
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Source: Statistics New Zealand; Ministry of Health
Notes:
1. One cigarette equivalent equals one manufactured cigarette or one gram of loose tobacco.
2. The volume of cigarettes and tobacco available for consumption represents products cleared for local
consumption on which duty has been paid.
3. Loose tobacco includes a small amount of pipe tobacco. Cigars are excluded.
Tobacco Trends 2007
13
References
Laugesen M. 2007. Tobacco Manufacturers’ Returns for the 2006 Calendar Year: Report to
the Ministry of Health. Unpublished report to the Ministry of Health. URL:
http://www.ndp.govt.nz/tobacco/tobaccoreturns.html. Accessed 10 October 2007.
Ministry of Health. 2004. Clearing the Smoke: A five-year plan for tobacco control in New
Zealand 2004–2009. Wellington: Ministry of Health. URL: http://www.moh.govt.nz. Accessed
21 November 2006.
Ministry of Health. 2005a. Seeing through the Smoke: Tobacco monitoring in New Zealand.
Public Health Intelligence Occasional Bulletin No. 26. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Ministry of Health. 2005b. Tobacco Facts 2005. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Ministry of Health. 2006. Tobacco Facts 2006. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Ministry of Health. 2007. New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey Report 2006. Wellington: Ministry
of Health.
Scragg R. 2007. Report of 1999–2006 National Year 10 Snapshot Smoking Surveys.
Unpublished report to ASH and HSC URL: http://www.ash.org.nz. Accessed 12 July 2007.
14
Tobacco Trends 2007
Appendix A: Methodology
A1 ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd methodology
ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd administers consumer omnibus surveys annually to approximately
11,000 households. Surveys are conducted face-to-face, with one respondent per
household. There are two tobacco-related questions in the survey, from which
prevalence estimates are derived.
Show cards itemising manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, pipes, cigars and
cigarillos are used in conjunction with questions. Respondents are asked, ‘Which of
these products, if any, do you ever smoke?’ and ‘How many manufactured/roll-yourown tobacco cigarettes do you smoke in an average day?’
Cigarette smokers are defined as those who smoke any manufactured or roll-your-own
tobacco cigarettes.
Data obtained from ACNielsen are weighted to reflect age, sex and household
characteristics of the Census population. Confidence intervals are provided where
possible. Data are analysed using SAS (Version 9.1).
A2 Year 10 Smoking Survey methodology
The Year 10 Smoking Survey is a national survey administered to Year 10 students
(14- to 15-year-olds) annually. The first objective of the survey is to investigate trends
in the last five years (1999–2006 in relation to: adolescent smoking prevalence;
parental smoking prevalence; and smoking in the home. The second objective is to
provide information on sex, ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities within youth
populations. Action on Smoking and Health manages data collection of this survey,
utilising Research Solutions to process the data. The Year 10 Smoking Survey is
funded by the Ministry of Health.
In 2004 and 2005 the Health Sponsorship Council assisted with the collection of data
with analytical support from the University of Auckland. Information derived from these
surveys is important for initiating tobacco control programmes to reduce smoking
among New Zealand youth. Participating schools receive their individual data and, if a
school consents, its particular data are forwarded to its local Public Health Unit.
Methods
The Year 10 Smoking Survey employs a census-style approach to measure smoking
prevalence and smoking-related behaviour over time. Students answer anonymous,
self-administered questionnaires. Data are analysed using SAS (Version 9.1).
Tobacco Trends 2007
15
In 2005 the total number of questionnaires returned was 33,219. Of this total, 32,761
were analysed; the other questionnaires were not used due to missing variables such
as sex, ethnicity and cigarette smoking information. Over the period of 1999 to 2006, a
total of 214,654 Year 10 students answered an anonymous self-administered
questionnaire as part of this annual survey. Note that the order of possible responses
to the question, ‘How often do you now smoke’, was reversed in 2004 and 2005.
Analysis of data has not shown any huge deviations as a result of this change.
16
Tobacco Trends 2007
Appendix B: ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd Data
Table B1: Prevalence of smoking (%) (15+ years), by tobacco product category and age, 2006
and 2007 combined
Age group
(years)
Manufactured
cigarettes
Roll-your-own
tobacco
Any cigarettes
Daily cigarette
smoking
All smokers
15–19
8.6
(5.7, 11.5)
16.6
(12.8, 20.4)
21.3
(17.1, 25.5)
20.7
(16.6, 24.9)
21.7
(17.5, 25.9)
20–24
19.4
(15.2, 23.5)
20.1
(15.9, 24.3)
34.0
(29.1, 39.0)
33.0
(28.1, 37.9)
34.0
(29.1, 39.0)
25–29
15.7
(12.1, 19.4)
21.4
(17.3, 25.5)
32.1
(27.4, 36.8)
30.8
(26.2, 35.4)
32.1
(27.4, 36.8)
30–34
16.1
(12.5, 19.6)
16.1
(12.6, 19.7)
27.1
(22.8, 31.4)
26.2
(21.9, 30.5)
27.6
(23.3, 32.0)
35–39
13.7
(10.6, 16.9)
15.5
(12.1, 18.8)
26.0
(21.9, 30.0)
25.2
(21.2, 29.2)
26
(21.9, 30.0)
40–44
14.0
(10.7, 17.4)
15.0
(11.6, 18.4)
27.0
(22.8, 31.3)
26.1
(21.9, 30.4)
27.6
(23.3, 31.9)
45–49
14.3
(10.8, 17.8)
13.2
(9.8, 16.6)
24.5
(20.2, 28.8)
23.0
(18.8, 27.2)
25.1
(20.7, 29.4)
50–54
15.6
(11.7, 19.5)
11.4
(7.9, 14.8)
24.7
(20.0, 29.4)
24.0
(19.4, 28.6)
25.8
(21.0, 30.5)
55–59
11.1
(7.8, 14.4)
8.7
(5.7, 11.6)
17.6
(13.7, 21.6)
16.6
(12.7, 20.4)
17.9
(13.9, 21.9)
60–64
9.2
(6.1, 12.2)
7.2
(4.5 ,10)
15.5
(11.7, 19.2)
15.1
(11.4, 18.9)
16.1
(12.3, 20)
65–69
9.2
(6.1, 12.4)
4.4
(2.2, 6.6)
12.9
(9.3, 16.5)
12.9
(9.3, 16.5)
13.2
(9.5, 16.8)
70–74
5.9
(3.2 ,8.7)
3.2
(1.1, 5.2)
8.8
(5.5, 12.1)
8.8
(5.5, 12.1)
9.2
(5.9, 12.6)
75–79
4.9
(2.3, 7.5)
1.5
(0.0, 2.9)
6.1
(3.3, 9.0)
6.1
(3.3, 9.0)
6.7
(3.7, 9.7)
80+
3.2
(1.3, 5.2)
2.4
(0.0, 7.4)
5.4
(2.9, 8.0)
4.8
(2.4, 7.2)
6.3
(3.6, 9.0)
Total
12.8
(11.8, 13.7)
13.1
(12.2, 14.1)
22.9
(21.8, 24.1)
22.1
(21.0, 23.3)
23.4
(22.2, 24.5)
Source: ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd
Notes:
1. 95% confidence intervals are presented below each rate.
2. ‘All smokers’ (column 6) includes those who smoke cigars and pipes.
3. ‘Any cigarettes’ (column 4) includes those who smoke less than one cigarette (but more than 0) per
day.
Tobacco Trends 2007
17
Table B2: Prevalence of cigarette smoking (%) (15+ years), by age, sex and ethnicity, 1983–2007
Year
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2003
(18–24 years)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Males
15–24 years
25–34 years
35–54 years
55+ years
Total
34
38
37
29
35
35
39
35
27
34
31
35
31
24
30
31
32
29
24
29
32
34
34
22
31
27
38
31
20
29
28
30
28
20
27
30
32
30
18
28
28
35
27
18
27
25
34
29
18
27
28
35
30
19
28
28
36
30
17
28
25
35
29
19
27
27
33
26
19
26
27
30
28
16
26
27
34
28
16
26
30
33
27
16
26
28
35
27
12
25
31
33
26
13
25
32
31
27
14
25
32
36
26
13
25
25
34
28
14
24
24.4
34.8
26.0
12.8
23.7
26.6
36.4
24.3
11.3
23.4
25.5
30.7
26.9
12.8
23.5
Females
15–24 years
25–34 years
35–54 years
55+ years
Total
40
35
31
21
31
40
34
29
22
31
40
34
29
19
30
37
34
32
21
31
36
35
26
19
28
39
35
28
16
29
37
33
25
16
27
34
32
28
16
27
33
30
24
16
26
33
36
27
14
27
30
34
26
16
26
34
33
25
16
26
33
36
25
14
26
36
35
26
13
26
35
36
26
14
27
30
31
26
12
24
33
32
26
13
25
31
37
25
13
25
32
34
25
13
25
33
32
25
11
24
35
35
25
12
25
29
30
24
13
22
30.7
29.8
25.1
12.6
23.3
30.6
29.4
25.9
13.5
23.8
29.7
28.3
24.5
12.1
22.5
Both sexes
Māori
Pacific
European/Other
Total
–
–
–
33
–
–
–
32
–
–
–
30
–
–
–
30
–
–
–
30
–
–
–
29
–
–
–
27
51
32
25
28
50
30
24
26
52
33
24
27
54
33
24
27
52
34
24
27
51
34
24
27
49
32
23
26
51
34
23
26
49
33
22
25
51
30
22
26
49
34
22
25
51
31
21
25
49
35
21
25
52
33
20
25
47
29
20
23
50.9
33.1
19.3
23.5
49.7
31.2
19.4
23.6
46.6
29.4
18.6
23.0
Source: Census of Populations and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand; ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd
Notes:
1. From July 1989 to March 1996, the youngest age group was 16–24 years. Adjustment for the expected proportion of smokers aged 15–24 years from those aged 18–24 years has been made.
2. Annual ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd estimates have been calculated from the average of the quarterly results until 1999. From 2000 annual estimates are derived from the year’s pooled data.
3. In 2003 age data were collected only for those aged 18+ years. Adjustment for the expected proportion of smokers aged 15–24 years from those aged 18–24 years has been made.
4. Smoking prevalence figures include the smoking of both manufactured cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco.
18
Tobacco Trends 2007
Figure B1: Prevalence of cigarette smoking (%), by ethnicity, 1990–2007
Percent
60
Maori
Pacific peoples
European/Other
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Source: ACNielsen (NZ) Ltd
Notes:
1. The classification of ethnic grouping changed from 1997 onwards, so ethnic-specific data before and
after 1997 may not be comparable.
2. 1990–2002 data points represent the prevalence of cigarette smoking (%) (15+ years).
3. 2003 data points represent the prevalence of cigarette smoking (%) (18+ years).
4. 2004–2007 data points represent the prevalence of cigarette smoking (%) (15+ years).
Tobacco Trends 2007
19
Appendix C: Consumption and Supply
Table C1: Tobacco products released for consumption in New Zealand, 1970–2006
Year
Tobacco products released
Number of cigarette equivalents released per adult (15+ years)
Loose tobacco
(tonnes)
Manufactured
cigarettes (millions)
Loose tobacco per 15+
Manufactured cigarettes
per capita
Total per capita
1970
1024
4952
534
2581
3144
1971
965
5118
493
2615
3108
1972
934
5405
468
2705
3173
1973
853
5526
416
2697
3113
1974
782
5769
371
2740
3112
1975
749
6229
347
2885
3232
1976
702
6230
319
2835
3154
1977
666
6346
300
2857
3157
1978
610
6268
272
2794
3066
1979
575
6130
255
2715
2970
1980
548
5991
239
2617
2856
1981
553
6168
239
2666
2905
1982
539
6112
230
2603
2832
1983
546
6089
228
2541
2769
1984
534
6236
219
2560
2779
1985
493
5654
200
2293
2493
1986
501
5223
202
2102
2304
1987
511
5361
203
2125
2327
1988
552
5355
217
2101
2317
1989
554
4270
216
1662
1877
1990
602
4489
233
1738
1971
1991
652
4014
243
1495
1738
1992
768
3466
283
1277
1560
1993
810
3381
295
1232
1527
1994
694
3396
249
1221
1470
1995
808
3338
287
1187
1474
1996
658
3660
230
1280
1511
1997
733
3449
253
1191
1444
1998
757
3263
259
1118
1377
1999
736
3119
251
1062
1312
2000
841
3152
281
1058
1352
2001
780
2608
262
875
1136
2002
810
2817
265
922
1187
2003
795
2367
255
759
1014
2004
841
2320
266
733
999
2005
889
2436
276
757
1033
2006
879
2439
269
747
1016
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Notes:
1. One cigarette equivalent equals one manufactured cigarette or one gram of loose tobacco.
2. One tonne equals 1000 kg.
3. It is assumed that one cigarette equals one gram of loose tobacco and one tonne of loose tobacco equals one million
manufactured cigarettes.
4. Calculations of cigarette equivalents are based on excise data on manufactured cigarettes and loose tobacco released for sale.
5. ‘Per capita’ means for each individual (15+ years) in the population.
20
Tobacco Trends 2007
Table C2: Annual tobacco returns, 1997–2006
Year
Loose cigarette
tobacco (tonnes)
Manufactured
cigarettes (millions)
Cigar tobacco
(tonnes)
Pipe tobacco
(tonnes)
Total returns per
capita
1997
699
3622
15
17
1504.1
1998
724
3300
17
16
1390.0
1999
727
3215
18
13
1353.4
2000
721
2722
24
9
1176.6
2001
698
2545
14
9
1087.5
2002
742
2723
16
9
1140.9
2003
798
2367
17
8
1022.8
2004
809
2329
16
7
999.1
2005
811
2336
17
6
1037.1
2006
817
2439
18
6
1004.1
Source: Statistics New Zealand; Ministry of Health
Note: ‘Per capita’ means for each individual (15+ years) in the population.
Tobacco Trends 2007
21