Hurricane Season is Heating Up!!
By: Scott Reinhardt
2013 is already the year of unprecedented massive storms that have left behind utter
destruction in their path, but now after a lull in the beginning of hurricane season the
tropics seem to be ripe for tropical development. The National Weather Center already
has their eye on two tropical invests in the eastern Atlantic, and it is possible that they
may develop into the next hurricanes of the season. If they were to be named, the next
names in the 2013 Atlantic Season would be Chantal and Dorian (Source: NOAA),
possibly becoming the 3rd and 4th named storms of the season.
How do Tropical Storms Form?
When an area of instability, or an area of contrast in the atmosphere, is located over warm
water, a storm starts to form. The storm starts feeding on the warm humid water by
drawing moisture from it. When it reaches the mid-troposphere, it cools and condenses
to make clouds. When the clouds become too heavy, they release rain. Then the pattern
starts all over again, when more moisture from the surrounding water is drawn up and is
drawn in the updrafts of the storm.
(Source: NASA)
Where do hurricanes form?
Usually, hurricanes form in areas with warm water, and therefore can form in many
different places all over the globe.
Places where Tropical Cyclones are Common
(Source: NASA)
Is this year’s hurricane season going to be an “active” one?
The first factor in my opinion for predicting a hurricane season is warm ocean
temperatures in the doldrums and in the tropics.
“Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Charts”
(Source: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations)
As you can see from the picture above, there is a large area of warm water in the
doldrums and the tropics. These areas are in the upper 20’s of degrees Celsius, which is
about 78.8 degrees Fahrenheit to 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit. These temperatures are
necessary for a storm to form, because it also helps to support the humid air.
(Source: arizona.edu)
Warmer water evaporating from the ocean means more humid air, according to the above
graphic, which leads to bigger, more severe storms. According to NOAA, this July has
been the “Second Warmest July and Warmest Year-to-Date Global Temperature on
Record.” When you have hotter air temperatures, the water temperature slowly starts to
heat up, making the atmosphere more favorable for tropical development. The normal
difference between how fast water heats up and how fast land heats up is shown below.
(Source: http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/234-5/)
The above diagram shows that the temperatures of the water are related to the
temperatures of the air, further proving my point that when you have hotter air
temperatures, the water heats up as well. Even if the proportion of water heats up
compared to the air is tiny, a few degrees difference in temperature can make a big
difference in the intensity of the hurricanes.
Another big factor in forecasting the 2013 hurricane season is that it is an el niño season.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, this year is an el niño year, which means that
there are cooler than normal surface water temperatures in the South Pacific.
(Source: Climate Prediction Center)
The area of blue coming off of South America in the picture above represents cooler than
normal water temperatures, representing an el niño.
Representation between el niño and wind shear in the Atlantic
(Source: WW2010 University of Illinois)
This would normally mean that this would not be a very active year for the formation of
hurricanes, but this year’s el niño is “neutral” according to NOAA, which means that the
el niño we have now is much closer to being in the middle between a la niña and el niño
than a strong el niño.
(Credit: NOAA)
This is the official forecast by NOAA stating that there is a much higher chance that we
will have “ESNO-Neutral conditions”, showing that hurricanes are more likely to form,
because there will not be strong wind shear from either a strong el niño or a strong la
niña.
El Niño/La Niña Scale
STRONG EL NINONeutralSTRONG LA NINA
El niño neutral conditions mean that there is
El niño neutral
El niño strong
“>$1 Billion = 74%
“>$1 Billion = >99%
>$5 Billion = 90%
>$5 Billion = 74%
>$10 Billion = 48%”
>$10 Billion = 27%”
(Source:
Pielke, Jr., Roger A., and Christopher W. Landsea. "La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic
Hurricane Damages in the United States." La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane
Damages in the United States. National Science Foundation, 6 Apr. 1999. Web. 06 July
2013. <http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/lanina/tables.html>.)
As you can see in the diagram, most of the damage that occurs in a strong el niño year is
below a billion dollars. The big difference is when you get to the damages that cost
greater than 10 billion dollars. An ENSO neutral year has twice the percentage of getting
hit by a storm that cost more than 10 billion dollars.
This is also goes right along with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast
(Source: Accuweather)
This further proves that we are going to have an increased number of major hurricanes
that cost more money.
Overall, I expect this hurricane season to be a very active one.
2013 Noreaster Wx Forecast for the 2013 Hurricane Season
Named Tropical Storms
18
Hurricanes
10
Major hurricanes
6
Sources Used:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure1.gif
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/fig5.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100813_globalstats.html
http://scijinks.nasa.gov/hurricane
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml
http://ag.arizona.edu/~lmilich/clim.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml