WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
___________________________________________
RA V TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
RA V/TCC-14/Doc. 7.5
(20.6.2012)
________
FOURTEENTH SESSION
ITEM 7.5
APIA, SAMOA
16 TO 20 JULY 2012
ENGLISH ONLY
REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME
Research Component
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document provides the session with information on the recent activities of
the Organization, which are of particular relevance to the research component
of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee.
Action Proposed
The Committee is invited to review the information to be presented by the WMO
representative at this session and make proposals and recommendations concerning future
research activities as amendments and/or additions to the draft text attached to this document.
___________________
References:
1.
WMO Strategic Plan (2012-2015) WMO-No. 1069 and WMO Operating Plan (2012-2015)
2.
Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme
(WWRP) (2009-2017) (WMO/TD No. 1505) (WWRP 2009-2)
Appendix:
Draft text for inclusion in the report of the session
RA V/TCC-14/Doc. 7.5, APPENDIX, p. 2
DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE FINAL REPORT OF THE
FOURTEENTH SESSION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
7.5
Research
7.5.1 The International Workshop on Rapid Change of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Movement
was successfully held in Xiamen, China from 18-20 October 2011. Organized by the current and
former Chair of World Weather Research Programme (WWRP's) Working Group on Tropical
Meteorology Research (WGTMR), Dr Yihong Duan and Prof Chen Lianshou respectively, the
workshop was attended by 53 tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. The workshop
highlighted recent advances in the theory and practice of forecasting rapid changes in tropical
cyclone intensity and track. The workshop report is currently being finalized and will soon be
available for download at the WGTMR/WWRP webpage.
7.5.2
The 3-day training session on Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast was successfully
conducted from 14-16 December 2011 at the WMO Regional Training Centre in Nanjing, China. It
was part of the 2-week International Training Course on Tropical Cyclones (5 to 16 December
2011). The training course was co-sponsored by CMA, WMO/ESCAP Typhoon Committee, WMO’s
World Weather Research Programme (WWRP including THORPEX) and Tropical Cyclone
Programme (TCP). The course was especially organized for forecasters of Typhoon Committee
member countries on the use of up-to-date ensemble data in tropical cyclone forecasting with
focus on maximum wind speeds, rainfall, and landfall timing and location.
7.5.3
Currently underway are three organized projects on tropical cyclones namely:
a) NWPacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) for Typhoon
Committee members (Lead: Japan Meteorological Agency) (2009-2014)
b) Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) (2010-2015)
(Lead: Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/CMA)
c) Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for Southeast Asia (2012-2013;
Lead: RSFC Ha Noi)
7.5.4 The website for the NWP-TCEFP (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php), maintained
by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), had
recently been improved based on feedback received from Members of the Typhoon Committee.
The project is a collaborative effort between WMO and the Typhoon Committee and aims to
explore the utility of ensemble forecast products through THORPEX interactive Grand Global
Ensemble (TIGGE) and thus promote application of the products to the operational forecasting of
tropical cyclones. It is closely linked with the TLFDP.
7.5.5 The website for the TLFDP (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn/index.php?controller=spage&pid=120) is
now online and can also be accessed through the WWRP Tropical Cyclone Website. The Typhoon
Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) is a collaborative effort with the THORPEX North
Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project. Endorsed by
WWRP, TCP and PWS the TLFDP was a complement of the Shanghai MHEWS project to collect,
integrate and display real-time or near real-time forecast results for both landfalling and nonlandfalling typhoons, including their track, intensity, wind and rain distribution. The FDP also aims
to develop and integrate techniques to evaluate and assess the accuracy of forecast of time and
location of landfall, gale distribution, and torrential rain, calculate forecast errors of various systems
and make a comprehensive analysis of forecast performance, evaluate the reliability of the
forecasts and finally assess the social and economic impacts of an improved tropical cyclone
RA V/TCC-14/Doc. 7.5, APPENDIX, p. 3
forecast service. The website is hosted by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the Shanghai
Meteorological Bureau.
7.5.6 The Second International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate
Change was successfully held in New Delhi, India from 14-17 February 2012. Organized by
WGTMR’s Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones led by Dr John McBride
(Australia) and Mr Tom Knutson (USA) in collaboration with the Tropical Cyclone Programme, the
conference was attended by more than 120 tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters
representing all of the five tropical cyclone basins. The broad thematic areas of the conference
included: current status of the operational tropical cyclone forecasting and warning system,
progress on the understanding of tropical cyclone genesis, climate change and tropical cyclone
activity, tropical cyclone risk and vulnerability assessment and tropical cyclone disaster
preparedness, management and reduction.
7.5.7
WWRP in collaboration with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) is organizing an
International Workshop on Unusual Tropical Cyclone Behaviour to be held in Haikou, Hainan,
China from 5-9 November this year. The overarching objective of the workshop is to focus on
unusual if not rare tropical cyclone behaviour, especially on motion, evolution, intensity,
precipitation patterns and other structure issues. A better understanding of tropical cyclone
behaviour leads to more accurate forecasts and better guidance for risk managers, both aspects
critical to mitigate the adverse impacts of these storms.
7.5.8
Steps are underway to organize the 2nd Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia from 10 to 12 December 2012. Organized by WGTMR’s Monsoon Panel, the
workshop will present and discuss recent research results on the observation, modelling and
prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region including heavy rainfall associated with tropical
cyclone events. It will also provide training to heavy rainfall NMHS forecasters in the monsoon
region. The oral session will include invited lectures and selected contributed papers. A planning
meeting for the proposed international field and modelling project, Southern China Monsoon
Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX), will be held during the Workshop.
_____