WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ___________________________________________ RA V TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE RA V/TCC-14/Doc. 7.5 (20.6.2012) ________ FOURTEENTH SESSION ITEM 7.5 APIA, SAMOA 16 TO 20 JULY 2012 ENGLISH ONLY REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME Research Component (Submitted by the Secretariat) Summary and Purpose of Document This document provides the session with information on the recent activities of the Organization, which are of particular relevance to the research component of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee. Action Proposed The Committee is invited to review the information to be presented by the WMO representative at this session and make proposals and recommendations concerning future research activities as amendments and/or additions to the draft text attached to this document. ___________________ References: 1. WMO Strategic Plan (2012-2015) WMO-No. 1069 and WMO Operating Plan (2012-2015) 2. Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) (2009-2017) (WMO/TD No. 1505) (WWRP 2009-2) Appendix: Draft text for inclusion in the report of the session RA V/TCC-14/Doc. 7.5, APPENDIX, p. 2 DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE FINAL REPORT OF THE FOURTEENTH SESSION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE 7.5 Research 7.5.1 The International Workshop on Rapid Change of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Movement was successfully held in Xiamen, China from 18-20 October 2011. Organized by the current and former Chair of World Weather Research Programme (WWRP's) Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR), Dr Yihong Duan and Prof Chen Lianshou respectively, the workshop was attended by 53 tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. The workshop highlighted recent advances in the theory and practice of forecasting rapid changes in tropical cyclone intensity and track. The workshop report is currently being finalized and will soon be available for download at the WGTMR/WWRP webpage. 7.5.2 The 3-day training session on Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast was successfully conducted from 14-16 December 2011 at the WMO Regional Training Centre in Nanjing, China. It was part of the 2-week International Training Course on Tropical Cyclones (5 to 16 December 2011). The training course was co-sponsored by CMA, WMO/ESCAP Typhoon Committee, WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP including THORPEX) and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). The course was especially organized for forecasters of Typhoon Committee member countries on the use of up-to-date ensemble data in tropical cyclone forecasting with focus on maximum wind speeds, rainfall, and landfall timing and location. 7.5.3 Currently underway are three organized projects on tropical cyclones namely: a) NWPacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) for Typhoon Committee members (Lead: Japan Meteorological Agency) (2009-2014) b) Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) (2010-2015) (Lead: Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/CMA) c) Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for Southeast Asia (2012-2013; Lead: RSFC Ha Noi) 7.5.4 The website for the NWP-TCEFP (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php), maintained by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), had recently been improved based on feedback received from Members of the Typhoon Committee. The project is a collaborative effort between WMO and the Typhoon Committee and aims to explore the utility of ensemble forecast products through THORPEX interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) and thus promote application of the products to the operational forecasting of tropical cyclones. It is closely linked with the TLFDP. 7.5.5 The website for the TLFDP (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn/index.php?controller=spage&pid=120) is now online and can also be accessed through the WWRP Tropical Cyclone Website. The Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) is a collaborative effort with the THORPEX North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project. Endorsed by WWRP, TCP and PWS the TLFDP was a complement of the Shanghai MHEWS project to collect, integrate and display real-time or near real-time forecast results for both landfalling and nonlandfalling typhoons, including their track, intensity, wind and rain distribution. The FDP also aims to develop and integrate techniques to evaluate and assess the accuracy of forecast of time and location of landfall, gale distribution, and torrential rain, calculate forecast errors of various systems and make a comprehensive analysis of forecast performance, evaluate the reliability of the forecasts and finally assess the social and economic impacts of an improved tropical cyclone RA V/TCC-14/Doc. 7.5, APPENDIX, p. 3 forecast service. The website is hosted by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau. 7.5.6 The Second International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change was successfully held in New Delhi, India from 14-17 February 2012. Organized by WGTMR’s Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones led by Dr John McBride (Australia) and Mr Tom Knutson (USA) in collaboration with the Tropical Cyclone Programme, the conference was attended by more than 120 tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters representing all of the five tropical cyclone basins. The broad thematic areas of the conference included: current status of the operational tropical cyclone forecasting and warning system, progress on the understanding of tropical cyclone genesis, climate change and tropical cyclone activity, tropical cyclone risk and vulnerability assessment and tropical cyclone disaster preparedness, management and reduction. 7.5.7 WWRP in collaboration with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) is organizing an International Workshop on Unusual Tropical Cyclone Behaviour to be held in Haikou, Hainan, China from 5-9 November this year. The overarching objective of the workshop is to focus on unusual if not rare tropical cyclone behaviour, especially on motion, evolution, intensity, precipitation patterns and other structure issues. A better understanding of tropical cyclone behaviour leads to more accurate forecasts and better guidance for risk managers, both aspects critical to mitigate the adverse impacts of these storms. 7.5.8 Steps are underway to organize the 2nd Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 10 to 12 December 2012. Organized by WGTMR’s Monsoon Panel, the workshop will present and discuss recent research results on the observation, modelling and prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region including heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone events. It will also provide training to heavy rainfall NMHS forecasters in the monsoon region. The oral session will include invited lectures and selected contributed papers. A planning meeting for the proposed international field and modelling project, Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX), will be held during the Workshop. _____